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The Selective Confirmation Answer to the Paradox of the Ravens 乌鸦悖论的选择性确认答案
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2020.1768014
William Peden
ABSTRACT Philosophers such as Goodman (1954), Scheffler (1963) and Glymour (1983) aim to answer the Paradox of the Ravens by distinguishing between confirmation simpliciter and selective confirmation. The latter evidential relation occurs when data not only confirms a hypothesis, but also disconfirms one of its ‘rival’ hypotheses. The appearance of paradox is allegedly due to a conflation of valid intuitions about selective confirmation with our intuitions about confirmation simpliciter. Theories of evidence, like the standard Bayesian analysis, should only be understood as explications of confirmation simpliciter; when we disambiguate between selective confirmation and confirmation simpliciter, there is no longer a paradox from these theories. Bandyopadhyay and Brittan (2006) have revived this answer within a sophisticated Bayesian analysis of confirmation and severe testing. I argue that, despite the attractive features of the Selective Confirmation Answer, there is no analysis of this evidential relation that satisfactorily answers the Paradox of the Ravens, and the prospects for any answer along these lines are bleak. We must look elsewhere.
古德曼(1954)、舍弗勒(1963)和格里莫(1983)等哲学家试图通过区分简单确认和选择性确认来回答乌鸦悖论。后一种证据关系发生在数据不仅证实了一个假设,而且也否定了其“竞争”假设之一的情况下。据称,悖论的出现是由于关于选择性确认的有效直觉与我们关于简单确认的直觉的合并。证据理论,就像标准的贝叶斯分析一样,只应该被理解为更简单的确认的解释;当我们在选择性确认和简化确认之间消除歧义时,这些理论不再存在悖论。Bandyopadhyay和Brittan(2006)通过一种复杂的贝叶斯确认分析和严格的测试,重新提出了这个答案。我认为,尽管选择性确认答案具有吸引人的特点,但没有对这种证据关系的分析能令人满意地回答乌鸦悖论,而且沿着这些思路找到任何答案的前景都是黯淡的。我们必须另寻他处。
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引用次数: 1
On the Concept and Conservation of Critical Natural Capital 论关键自然资本的概念与保护
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2020.1788347
C. DesRoches
ABSTRACT Ecological economics is an interdisciplinary science that is primarily concerned with developing interventions to achieve sustainable ecological and economic systems. While ecological economists have, over the last few decades, made various empirical, theoretical, and conceptual advancements, there is one concept in particular that remains subject to confusion: critical natural capital. While critical natural capital denotes parts of the environment that are essential for the continued existence of our species, the meaning of terms commonly associated with this concept, such as ‘non-substitutable’ and ‘impossible to substitute,’ require a clearer formulation then they tend to receive. With the help of equations and graphs, this article develops new definite account of critical natural capital that makes explicit what it means for objective environmental conditions to be essential for continued existence. The second main part of this article turns to the question of formally modelling the priority of conserving critical natural capital. While some ecological economists have maintained that, beyond a certain threshold, critical natural capital possesses absolute infinite value, absolute infinite utility models encounter significant problems. This article shows that a relative infinite utility model provides a better way to model the priority of conserving critical natural capital.
摘要生态经济学是一门跨学科的科学,主要关注制定干预措施,以实现可持续的生态和经济系统。尽管生态经济学家在过去几十年中取得了各种实证、理论和概念上的进步,但有一个概念仍然存在困惑:关键自然资本。虽然关键自然资本指的是环境中对我们物种的持续生存至关重要的部分,但通常与这一概念相关的术语的含义,如“不可替代的”和“不可能替代的”,需要比它们通常接受的更清晰的表述。借助方程和图表,本文对临界自然资本进行了新的明确解释,明确了客观环境条件对持续存在的必要性。本文的第二个主要部分转向对保护关键自然资本的优先顺序进行正式建模的问题。尽管一些生态经济学家认为,超过一定阈值,临界自然资本具有绝对无限价值,但绝对无限效用模型遇到了重大问题。本文表明,相对无限效用模型提供了一种更好的方法来建模保护关键自然资本的优先级。
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引用次数: 4
An Epistemic Puzzle About Knowledge and Rational Credence 关于知识与理性信任的认知困惑
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2019.1704615
Manuel Pérez Otero
ABSTRACT I present some puzzling cases regarding knowledge and its relation to rational credence. They seem to entail a failure of an apparently correct principle: (a) if S knows P, then the epistemic justification S has for believing Not-P is not greater than her epistemic justification for believing P. The cases at issue involve the following two conflicting facts, relative to a given subject S and a proposition P in a determinate context. Firstly, some people have a very strong intuition that: (b) S has perceptual knowledge of P. Secondly, all of us, when reflecting on the relevant data, have a very strong intuition for this other thesis: (c) the epistemic justification S has for believing Not-P is much greater than her epistemic justification for believing P. The cases seem to be instances of the base-rate fallacy, so that—apparently—the subject would be irrational if she believed proposition P. My main aim here is to present the puzzle. But, I also provide a solution for it that preserves thesis (b) without renouncing Bayesian epistemology, which is the basis for thesis (c).
我提出了一些关于知识及其与理性信任的关系的令人困惑的案例。它们似乎导致了一个表面上正确的原则的失败:(a)如果S知道P,那么S相信非P的认识论论证并不大于她相信P的认识论论证。争论的案例涉及以下两个相互冲突的事实,它们与给定的主体S和特定语境中的命题P有关。首先,有些人有一种非常强烈的直觉,即:(b) S对p有感性认识。其次,我们所有人在反思相关数据时,对这另一个论点有一种非常强烈的直觉:(c) S相信非p的认识论理由比她相信p的认识论理由要大得多。这些案例似乎是基本率谬论的实例,因此,很明显,如果主体相信命题p,那么她就是非理性的。但是,我也提供了一个解决方案,它保留了论点(b),而不放弃贝叶斯认识论,这是论点(c)的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Hume’s Problem Solved: The Optimality of Meta-Induction 休谟问题的解决:元归纳法的最优化
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2020.1767892
Tomoji Shogenji
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引用次数: 30
Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability 气候模型:如何评估其可靠性
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2019.1644722
M. Carrier, J. Lenhard
ABSTRACT The paper discusses modelling uncertainties in climate models and how they can be addressed based on physical principles as well as based on how the models perform in light of empirical data. We argue that the reliability of climate models can be judged by three kinds of standards: striking confirmation, supplementing independent causal arguments, and judging the causal core of models by establishing model robustness. We also use model robustness for delimiting confirmational holism. We survey recent results of climate modelling and identify salient results that fulfil each of the three standards. Our conclusion is that climate models can be considered reliable for some qualitative gross features and some long-term tendencies of the climate system as well as for quantitative aspects of some smaller-scale mechanisms. The adequacy of climate models for other purposes is less convincing. Among the latter are probability estimates, in particular, those concerning rare events. On the whole, climate models suffer from important deficits and are difficult to verify, but are still better confirmed and more reliable than parts of the methodological literature suggest.
摘要本文讨论了气候模型中的建模不确定性,以及如何根据物理原理以及模型如何根据经验数据进行处理。我们认为,气候模型的可靠性可以通过三种标准来判断:引人注目的确认、补充独立的因果论据,以及通过建立模型稳健性来判断模型的因果核心。我们还使用模型鲁棒性来界定确认整体性。我们调查了最近的气候建模结果,并确定了符合三个标准的显著结果。我们的结论是,对于气候系统的一些定性总体特征和一些长期趋势,以及一些较小规模机制的定量方面,气候模型可以被认为是可靠的。气候模型用于其他目的的充分性就不那么令人信服了。后者包括概率估计,特别是关于罕见事件的概率估计。总的来说,气候模型存在重大缺陷,难以验证,但仍比部分方法论文献所表明的得到更好的证实和更可靠。
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引用次数: 7
Why Adding Truths Is Not Enough: A Reply to Mizrahi on Progress as Approximation to the Truth 为什么添加真理是不够的:对米兹拉希关于“进步是真理的近似值”的回答
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2019.1623502
G. Cevolani, Luca Tambolo
ABSTRACT In a recent paper in this journal, entitled ‘Scientific Progress: Why Getting Closer to Truth is Not Enough’ (2017), Moti Mizrahi argues that the view of progress as approximation to the truth or increasing verisimilitude is plainly false. The key premise of his argument is that on such a view of progress, in order to get closer to the truth one only needs to arbitrarily add a true disjunct to a hypothesis or theory. Since quite clearly scientific progress is not a matter of adding true disjuncts to theories, the argument goes, the view of progress as approximation to the truth is untenable. We show that the key premise of Mizrahi’s argument is false: according to verisimilitude-based accounts of progress, adding arbitrary true disjuncts to existing theories is just not enough to get closer to the truth.
摘要在本杂志最近发表的一篇题为《科学进步:为什么仅仅接近真相是不够的》(2017)的论文中,Moti Mizrahi认为,将进步视为接近真相或增加真实性的观点显然是错误的。他的论点的关键前提是,在这种进步观下,为了更接近真理,人们只需要在假设或理论中任意添加一个真正的析取。由于很明显,科学进步不是在理论中添加真正的脱节,有人认为,将进步视为接近真理的观点是站不住脚的。我们表明,米兹拉希论点的关键前提是错误的:根据对进展的基于逼真性的描述,在现有理论中添加任意的真析取是不足以接近真相的。
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引用次数: 2
From Ontological Traits to Validity Challenges in Social Science: The Cases of Economic Experiments and Research Questionnaires 从本体论特征到社会科学的有效性挑战——以经济学实验和研究问卷为例
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2019.1682773
María Caamaño-Alegre, J. Caamaño-Alegre
ABSTRACT This article examines how problems of validity in empirical social research differ from those in natural science. Specifically, we focus on how some ontological peculiarities of the object of study in social science bear on validity requirements. We consider these issues in experimental validity as well as in test validity because, while both fields hold large intellectual traditions, research tests or questionnaires are less closely connected to natural science methodology than experiments.
摘要本文探讨了实证社会研究中的有效性问题与自然科学中的问题有何不同。具体而言,我们关注社会科学研究对象的一些本体论特性如何影响有效性要求。我们在实验有效性和测试有效性中考虑这些问题,因为尽管这两个领域都有很大的智力传统,但研究测试或问卷与自然科学方法论的联系不如实验紧密。
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引用次数: 3
What’s Left of Human Nature? A Post-Essentialist, Pluralist, and Interactive Account of a C 人性还剩下什么?后本质主义、多元主义和互动主义对C的解释
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2019.1704616
Andrew Buskell
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引用次数: 0
In Praise of Natural Philosophy: A Revolution for Thought and Life 赞美自然哲学:一场思想与生活的革命
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2019.1615663
Mohammad Reza Haghighi Fard
Carrara, M., D. Chiffi, and C. De Florio. 2017. “Assertions and Hypotheses: A Logical Framework for Their Opposition Relations.” Logic Journal of the IGPL 25: 131–144. Peirce, C. S. 1931–1958. Collected Papers of Charles S. Peirce. Edited by P. Weiss and A. Burks. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. References are to CP by volume and paragraph number. Rescher, N. 1976. “Peirce and the Economy of Research.” Philosophy of Science 43: 71–98. Woods, J. 2013. Errors of Reasoning: Naturalizing the Logic of Inference. London: College Publications.
Carrara, M., D. Chiffi和C. De Florio. 2017。断言与假设:它们对立关系的逻辑框架逻辑学报,25(2):131-144。皮尔斯1931-1958。查尔斯S.皮尔斯文集。P. Weiss和A. Burks编辑。剑桥,马萨诸塞州:哈佛大学出版社。参考文献是按卷和段落编号的CP。雷彻,N. 1976。"皮尔斯与研究经济"科学哲学43:71-98。伍兹J. 2013。推理错误:推理逻辑的自然化。伦敦:大学出版社。
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引用次数: 0
In What Sense Can There Be Evolution by Natural Selection Without Perfect Inheritance? 在没有完美遗传的情况下,在什么意义上可以有自然选择的进化?
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2019.1623485
Pierrick Bourrat
ABSTRACT In Darwinian Population and Natural Selection, Peter Godfrey-Smith brought the topic of natural selection back to the forefront of philosophy of biology, highlighting different issues surrounding this concept. One such issue is whether the perfect transmission of characters from parent(s) to offspring is necessary for evolution by natural selection (ENS). Drawing on the classical summaries for ENS, Godfrey-Smith's answer is that it is not, and opposes his view to the replicator framework. In this paper, I show that Godfrey-Smith's approach to ENS is only one of two legitimate perspective on ENS. One focuses on natural selection in the context of other evolutionary processes, while the other assumes their absence. After having presented these two perspectives, which I call the ‘contextual’ and the ‘pure’ perspective respectively, I draw on a framework which conceptualises the difference between natural selection, drift, and mutation in a causal rather than statistical fashion developed elsewhere. From there, I show that following the pure rather than the contextual perspective, perfect inheritance of characters is a necessary condition for ENS. This is because, I argue, imperfect inheritance is inevitably associated with an evolutionary process conceptually distinct from natural selection, namely mutation. I conclude by proposing that the classical summaries for ENS correspond more to the contextual perspective and the replicator framework more to the pure perspective.
在《达尔文的人口与自然选择》一书中,彼得·戈弗雷-史密斯将自然选择这一主题重新拉回到生物学哲学的前沿,强调了围绕这一概念的不同问题。其中一个问题是,在自然选择(ENS)的进化过程中,性状从父母到后代的完美遗传是否必要。根据对ENS的经典总结,Godfrey-Smith的回答是,它不是,并反对他对复制因子框架的看法。在本文中,我表明Godfrey-Smith的ENS方法只是关于ENS的两种合法观点之一,一种关注其他进化过程背景下的自然选择,而另一种假设它们不存在。在介绍了这两种观点(我分别称之为“情境”和“纯粹”观点)之后,我利用了一个框架,该框架将自然选择、漂移和突变之间的差异概念化,而不是在其他地方发展起来的统计方式。在此基础上,我表明,从纯粹而非情境的角度来看,角色的完美遗传是ens的必要条件,这是因为,我认为,不完美的遗传不可避免地与一种概念上不同于自然选择的进化过程相关联,即突变。最后,我提出ENS的经典总结更符合情境视角,而复制因子框架更符合纯粹视角。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
International Studies in the Philosophy of Science
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