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The Tools of Metaphysics and the Metaphysics of Science 《形而上学的工具与科学的形而上学
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2022.2098463
Vassilis Livanios
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Overall Validity of Randomised Controlled Trials 评估随机对照试验的总体有效性
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2021.2002676
A. Krauss
ABSTRACT In the biomedical, behavioural and social sciences, the leading method used to estimate causal effects is commonly randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that are generally viewed as both the source and justification of the most valid evidence. In studying the foundation and theory behind RCTs, the existing literature analyses important single issues and biases in isolation that influence causal outcomes in trials (such as randomisation, statistical probabilities and placebos). The common account of biased causal inference is described in a general way in terms of probabilistic imbalances between trial groups. This paper expands the common account of causal bias by distinguishing between the range of biases arising between trial groups but also within one of the groups or across the entire sample during trial design, implementation and analysis. This is done by providing concrete examples from highly influential RCT studies. In going beyond the existing RCT literature, the paper provides a broader, practice-based account of causal bias that specifies the between-group, within-group and across-group biases that affect the estimated causal results of trials – impacting both the effect size and statistical significance. Within this expanded framework, we can better identify the range of different types of biases we face in practice and address the central question about the overall validity of the RCT method and its causal claims. A study can face several smaller biases (related simultaneously to a smaller sample, smaller estimated effect, greater unblinding etc.) that generally add up to greater aggregate bias. Though difficult to measure precisely, it is important to assess and provide information in studies on how much different sources of bias, combined, can explain the estimated causal effect. The RCT method is thereby often the best we have to inform our policy decisions – and the evidence is strengthened when combined with multiple studies and other methods. Yet there is room for continually improving trials and identifying ways to reduce biases they face and to increase their overall validity. Implications are discussed.
摘要在生物医学、行为科学和社会科学中,用于估计因果影响的主要方法通常是随机对照试验,这些试验通常被视为最有效证据的来源和理由。在研究随机对照试验背后的基础和理论时,现有文献单独分析了影响试验因果结果的重要单一问题和偏差(如随机化、统计概率和安慰剂)。有偏见的因果推断的常见解释是根据试验组之间的概率失衡来描述的。本文通过在试验设计、实施和分析过程中区分试验组之间、其中一组内或整个样本中出现的偏差范围,扩展了因果偏差的常见解释。这是通过提供极具影响力的随机对照试验研究的具体例子来实现的。在超越现有随机对照试验文献的基础上,该论文对因果偏差进行了更广泛的、基于实践的描述,具体说明了影响试验估计因果结果的组间、组内和组间偏差——影响效应大小和统计显著性。在这个扩展的框架内,我们可以更好地识别我们在实践中面临的各种不同类型的偏见,并解决关于随机对照试验方法及其因果声明的总体有效性的核心问题。一项研究可能面临几个较小的偏差(同时与较小的样本、较小的估计效果、较大的揭盲等有关),这些偏差通常加起来会导致更大的总偏差。尽管很难精确测量,但重要的是在研究中评估和提供信息,说明不同的偏见来源加在一起可以解释估计的因果效应。因此,随机对照试验方法通常是我们为政策决策提供信息的最佳方法,当与多项研究和其他方法相结合时,证据会得到加强。然而,仍有不断改进试验的空间,并确定减少他们面临的偏见和提高其总体有效性的方法。讨论了影响。
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引用次数: 3
Pseudoscience as a Negative Outcome of Scientific Dialogue: A Pragmatic-Naturalistic Approach to the Demarcation Problem 伪科学是科学对话的消极结果:对划界问题的实用主义-自然主义方法
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2022.2057777
Stefaan Blancke, M. Boudry
ABSTRACT The demarcation between science and pseudoscience is a long-standing problem in philosophy of science. Although philosophers have been hesitant to engage in this project since Larry Laudan announced its demise in the 1980s, pseudoscience as a societal phenomenon did not disappear, and many policy makers and scientists continue to use the concept. Therefore, the philosophical challenge of explaining what pseudoscience is and how it differs from genuine science still stands. Even though it might well be impossible to identify all pseudosciences by means of a set of necessary and sufficient conditions, we can nonetheless, in a naturalistic fashion, establish that pseudoscience is a real phenomenon, diagnose recurring features and symptoms, and explain how these emerge. In this paper we argue that science builds on and emerges from interactive reasoning, a process that, under particular conditions, weeds out beliefs and practices that are not (sufficiently) justified. When people nevertheless think of these beliefs and practices as equivalent to or even better than the ones accepted by the scientific community, they are rightfully regarded as pseudoscience. We explain the processes by which beliefs and practices may degenerate into pseudoscience and discuss the implications of our demarcation approach for the understanding of pseudoscience.
科学与伪科学的界限是科学哲学中一个长期存在的问题。尽管自拉里·劳丹在20世纪80年代宣布该项目消亡以来,哲学家们一直在犹豫是否参与该项目,但伪科学作为一种社会现象并没有消失,许多政策制定者和科学家仍在继续使用这一概念。因此,解释什么是伪科学以及它与真正科学的区别的哲学挑战仍然存在。尽管通过一系列必要和充分的条件来识别所有伪科学可能是不可能的,但我们仍然可以以自然主义的方式确定伪科学是一种真实的现象,诊断反复出现的特征和症状,并解释这些特征和症状是如何出现的。在这篇论文中,我们认为科学建立在互动推理的基础上,并从互动推理中产生,在特定条件下,互动推理会剔除不(充分)合理的信念和实践。然而,当人们认为这些信仰和实践等同于甚至优于科学界所接受的信仰和实践时,他们理所当然地被视为伪科学。我们解释了信仰和实践可能退化为伪科学的过程,并讨论了我们的划界方法对理解伪科学的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Treatment Effectiveness and the Russo–Williamson Thesis, EBM+, and Bradford Hill's Viewpoints 治疗效果与Russo-Williamson论文、EBM+和Bradford Hill的观点
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2022.2054396
S. Tresker
ABSTRACT Establishing the effectiveness of medical treatments is one of the most important aspects of medical practice. Bradford Hill's viewpoints play an important role in inferring causality in medicine, and EBM+ seeks to improve evidence-based medicine, which is influential in establishing treatment effectiveness. At EBM+'s foundations lies the Russo–Williamson thesis (RWT), which can be seen as providing a reduction of Hill's viewpoints into those involving difference-making and mechanistic evidence, both of which are claimed by the RWT's proponents to be typically required for establishing causal claims in medicine. Yet little has been written on whether and how the RWT, EBM+, and Hill's viewpoints establish treatment effectiveness. This could be because of uncertainty over what treatment effectiveness is. I provide an account of treatment effectiveness, analysing the role of the RWT, EBM+, and Hill's viewpoints in this regard. I argue that Hill's viewpoints and EBM+ can be useful in helping to evaluate evidence, but cannot directly establish or confirm treatment effectiveness. This is partly because effectiveness, I claim, is subject to inductive risk and therefore determined by non-epistemic values, neither of which Hill's viewpoints nor EBM+ offer guidance on. I conclude by reinterpreting Hill's viewpoints in light of establishing treatment effectiveness.
确定医疗的有效性是医学实践中最重要的方面之一。Bradford Hill的观点在推断医学因果关系方面发挥着重要作用,EBM+寻求改进循证医学,这对确定治疗效果有影响。在EBM+的基础上是Russo–Williamson论文(RWT),该论文可以被视为将Hill的观点简化为涉及差异制造和机制证据的观点,RWT的支持者声称这两种观点通常是建立医学因果关系所必需的。然而,关于RWT、EBM+和Hill的观点是否以及如何建立治疗有效性,几乎没有文献报道。这可能是因为治疗效果的不确定性。我提供了治疗效果的说明,分析了RWT、EBM+和Hill在这方面的观点的作用。我认为Hill的观点和EBM+可以帮助评估证据,但不能直接确定或证实治疗效果。这在一定程度上是因为,我声称,有效性受到诱导风险的影响,因此由非认知价值观决定,Hill的观点和EBM+都没有提供指导。最后,我根据确定治疗有效性的角度重新解释Hill的观点。
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引用次数: 4
In Defence of an Inferential Account of Extrapolation 为外推的推论解释辩护
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2021.2015678
T. Baetu
ABSTRACT According to the hypothesis-generator account, valid extrapolations from a source to a target system are circular, since they rely on knowledge of relevant similarities and differences that can only be obtained by investigating the target, thus removing the need to extrapolate; hence, extrapolative reasoning can only be useful as a method for generating hypotheses. I reject this view in favour of an inferential account, focused on extrapolations underpinning the aggregation of experimental results, and explore two lines of argumentation supporting the conclusion that these extrapolations can be validated in a noncircular manner. The first argument relies on formal proofs of inferential validity demonstrating that it is possible to reason from prior knowledge of causal structures in order to determine whether a claim can be extrapolated. The second argument builds on the fact that the hypothesis-generator account overlooks key inferential and experimental practices resulting in progressively better-informed extrapolations.
摘要根据假设生成器的说法,从来源到目标系统的有效外推是循环的,因为它们依赖于只有通过调查目标才能获得的相关相似性和差异性知识,从而消除了外推的必要性;因此,推断推理只能作为一种产生假设的方法。我拒绝这种观点,支持推理解释,专注于支撑实验结果聚合的推断,并探索了两条论证线,以支持这些推断可以以非圆形方式验证的结论。第一个论点依赖于推理有效性的形式证明,证明有可能根据因果结构的先验知识进行推理,以确定一个主张是否可以外推。第二个论点建立在这样一个事实之上,即假设生成器的账户忽略了关键的推理和实验实践,从而导致了越来越明智的推断。
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引用次数: 0
Hempel’s Dilemma: Not Only for Physicalism* 亨佩尔的困境:不仅仅是针对身体主义*
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2022.2041969
Erez Firt, M. Hemmo, O. Shenker
ABSTRACT According to the so-called Hempel’s Dilemma, the thesis of physicalism is either false or empty. Our intention in this paper is not to propose a solution to the Dilemma, but rather to argue as follows: to the extent that Hempel’s Dilemma applies to physicalism it equally applies to any theory that gives a deep-structure and changeable account of our experience or of high-level theories. In particular, we will show that it also applies to mind–body dualistic theories. The scope of Hempel’s Dilemma turns out to be very wide: it is a special case of a general sceptical argument against changeable deep-structure theories in and outside science.
摘要根据所谓的亨佩尔困境,物理主义的命题要么是虚假的,要么是空洞的。我们在本文中的意图不是提出一个解决困境的方案,而是如下所述:在亨佩尔困境适用于物理主义的范围内,它同样适用于任何对我们的经验或高级理论进行深层结构和可变描述的理论。特别是,我们将证明它也适用于身心二元论。亨佩尔困境的范围非常广泛:这是一个反对科学内外可变深层结构理论的普遍怀疑论的特例。
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引用次数: 1
On The Methodological Arguments for Wave−Function Realism 论波函数实在论的方法论论证
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2021.2024786
V. Matarese
ABSTRACT The paper explores a particular line of objection against wave-function realism. This view, advocated by Bell (1987) and presently defended by Albert (1996), North (2013) and Ney (2016), claims that the quantum wave function is a high-dimensional physical field. Normally, wave-function realism has been criticized for its ontological commitments, which are regarded as empirically unsupportable in principle and as violating empirical coherence. In this paper, I investigate whether there are any methodological arguments for endorsing such an ontology and whether they are sound. In particular, I home in on and discuss three arguments that may be used to support wave-function realism: (i) the argument from laws; (ii) the argument from the complete information of the system; (iii) the argument from explanation. My conclusion is that these arguments do not provide any good methodological grounds for inferring the existence of a high-dimensional physical field from quantum theory.
摘要本文探讨了反对波函数实在论的一条特殊路线。这一观点由Bell(1987)倡导,目前由Albert(1996)、North(2013)和Ney(2016)辩护,声称量子波函数是一个高维物理场。通常,波函数实在论因其本体论承诺而受到批评,这些承诺在原则上被认为是经验上不可支持的,并且违反了经验连贯性。在这篇论文中,我调查了是否有任何方法论论据支持这样的本体论,以及它们是否合理。特别是,我集中讨论了三个可以用来支持波函数实在论的论点:(I)来自法律的论点;(ii)来自系统完整信息的论点;(iii)来自解释的论点。我的结论是,这些论点并没有为从量子理论推断高维物理场的存在提供任何良好的方法学依据。
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引用次数: 1
Observation, Experiment, and Scientific Practice 观察、实验与科学实践
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2021.1978038
Slobodan Perović
ABSTRACT Ian Hacking has argued that the notions of experiment and observation are distinct, not even the opposite ends of a continuum. More recently, other authors have emphasised their continuity, saying it is futile to distinguish between them as they belong on a continuum of epistemic activities. I take a middle road by suggesting that in scientific practice, experiment and observation constitute a continuum, but we can identify methodological and pragmatic aspects that define it, as well as various points on it that meaningfully delineate scientific practices. I explain the implications of the location of research projects on the continuum for scientists’ epistemic responsibilities and their ethical and funding concerns.
伊恩·哈金认为,实验和观察的概念是截然不同的,甚至不是一个连续体的两端。最近,其他作者强调了它们的连续性,认为区分它们是徒劳的,因为它们属于认知活动的连续体。我采取中间路线,认为在科学实践中,实验和观察构成了一个连续体,但我们可以确定定义它的方法和实用主义方面,以及它的各种有意义地描绘科学实践的点。我解释了研究项目在连续体上的位置对科学家的认知责任及其伦理和资助问题的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Artifictional Intelligence: Against Humanity’s Surrender to Computers 人工智能:反对人类向计算机投降
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2021.1980650
A. Tympas
For Harry Collins, the key to understanding the limits and prospects of artificial intelligence is ‘context’, that is, the way computers become ‘embedded’ (or fail to do so) in human society. Incre...
对于Harry Collins来说,理解人工智能的局限性和前景的关键是“环境”,也就是说,计算机在人类社会中“嵌入”(或没有这样做)的方式。分辨…
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引用次数: 6
Symmetries, Indexicality and the Perspectivist Stance 对称性、指数性与透视主义立场
IF 0.8 2区 哲学 Q2 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02698595.2021.2001723
Quentin Ruyant
ABSTRACT I critically examine the assumption that the theoretical structure that varies under theoretical symmetries is redundant and should be eliminated from a metaphysical picture of the universe, following a ‘symmetry to reality’ inference. I do so by analysing the status of coordinate change symmetries taking a pragmatic approach. I argue that coordinate systems function as indexical devices, and play an important pragmatic role for representing concrete physical systems. I examine the implications of considering this pragmatic role seriously, taking what I call a perspectivist stance. My conclusion is that under a perspectivist stance, all symmetries (including local gauge symmetries) potentially have a direct empirical status: they point to dynamical aspects that are invariant under changes of operationalisation, and they constitute a guide not to reality, but to nomology and kinship.
摘要:我批判性地研究了这样一种假设,即在理论对称性下变化的理论结构是多余的,应该根据“对现实的对称性”推断,从形而上学的宇宙图景中删除。我通过采取务实的方法分析坐标变化对称性的现状来做到这一点。我认为坐标系是一种指数工具,在表示具体物理系统方面发挥着重要的语用作用。我研究了认真考虑这个务实角色的含义,采取了我所说的透视主义立场。我的结论是,在透视主义的立场下,所有对称性(包括局部规范对称性)都可能具有直接的经验地位:它们指向在操作变化下不变的动力学方面,它们不是对现实的指导,而是对法理和亲缘关系的指导。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
International Studies in the Philosophy of Science
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