Tunnel oxide passivation contacts (TOPCon) solar cells have revealed a high-performance efficiency and become mainstream product in global photovoltaic (PV) market. Nevertheless, there are still concerns about the reliability and durability of TOPCon modules, particularly in damp and heat conditions. Current lifetime prediction models for TOPCon modules lack adaptability to complex environmental stressors and rapid degradation feedback, limiting their utility in guiding material selection and process optimization. To address this gap, we developed a robust accelerated aging model by combining an improved Peck model with a sigmoidal degradation function, which explicitly incorporates critical factors such as internal humidity and temperature within the module. The model incorporates a particle swarm optimization algorithm to calibrate activation energy and humidity sensitivity parameters, enabling precise simulation of degradation trajectories. Validated through a “fitting + testing” framework, the model demonstrates high accuracy (RMSE = 0.7%) in predicting power degradation under damp heat, highly accelerated stress test, and modified pressure cooker test conditions. The results of our designed accelerated aging tests reveal that DH-induced degradation primarily reduces fill factor due to finger corrosion, with minimal impact on Voc and Isc. Modules encapsulated with polyolefin elastomer exhibit superior corrosion resistance, achieving a projected service lifetime 23 years longer than EVA/EVA encapsulated in high-humidity regions like Hainan, China. This article bridges the critical gap in TOPCon module lifetime prediction under extreme environments and provides actionable insights for optimizing encapsulation materials and enhancing long-term reliability. The proposed model offers a scalable framework for industry stakeholders to evaluate module performance under site-specific climatic conditions, accelerating the development of durable PV technologies.
{"title":"Lifetime Prediction of TOPCon Modules Based on Accelerated Damp Heat Life Tests","authors":"Junwei Duan;Lixia Yang;Hao Jiang;Ruirui Lv;Tao Xu;Yuanjie Yu;Zhiliang Chen;Feihong Ye;Gang Wang;Rida Ahmed;Lixia Yang;Zhixiang Huang;Xingang Ren","doi":"10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3645277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3645277","url":null,"abstract":"Tunnel oxide passivation contacts (TOPCon) solar cells have revealed a high-performance efficiency and become mainstream product in global photovoltaic (PV) market. Nevertheless, there are still concerns about the reliability and durability of TOPCon modules, particularly in damp and heat conditions. Current lifetime prediction models for TOPCon modules lack adaptability to complex environmental stressors and rapid degradation feedback, limiting their utility in guiding material selection and process optimization. To address this gap, we developed a robust accelerated aging model by combining an improved Peck model with a sigmoidal degradation function, which explicitly incorporates critical factors such as internal humidity and temperature within the module. The model incorporates a particle swarm optimization algorithm to calibrate activation energy and humidity sensitivity parameters, enabling precise simulation of degradation trajectories. Validated through a “fitting + testing” framework, the model demonstrates high accuracy (RMSE = 0.7%) in predicting power degradation under damp heat, highly accelerated stress test, and modified pressure cooker test conditions. The results of our designed accelerated aging tests reveal that DH-induced degradation primarily reduces fill factor due to finger corrosion, with minimal impact on Voc and Isc. Modules encapsulated with polyolefin elastomer exhibit superior corrosion resistance, achieving a projected service lifetime 23 years longer than EVA/EVA encapsulated in high-humidity regions like Hainan, China. This article bridges the critical gap in TOPCon module lifetime prediction under extreme environments and provides actionable insights for optimizing encapsulation materials and enhancing long-term reliability. The proposed model offers a scalable framework for industry stakeholders to evaluate module performance under site-specific climatic conditions, accelerating the development of durable PV technologies.","PeriodicalId":445,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics","volume":"16 2","pages":"232-241"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146223818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-13DOI: 10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3647937
Shakil Hossain;M. Rezwan Khan;M. Ryyan Khan
Photovoltaic (PV) system design and project viability are conventionally decided based on the assumptions: “end of life at 80% capacity” and “20–25 year system life.” These heuristic assumptions decouple the local financial context from long-term technical performance dynamics, obscuring the technoeconomic optimal in the decision aiding analyses. In this article, we present a technoeconomics driven framework to explain the project lifetime of PV farms. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) varies with the chosen project lifetime, and we show that there is an optimum operational life of the PV system where LCOE is minimum. We compare the fixed-rate degradation (FRD) model to a realistic degradation (RD) profile to quantify LCOE and optimal project lifetimes. FRD significantly overestimates the optimum lifetime. For a baseline system reaching 80% capacity in 25 years (“technical lifetime”), the FRD model predicts an unrealistic optimum life of 58 years, whereas the RD model yields 32 years at 2.5% interest rate and 2% inflation rate. We study the variation in optimum lifetimes for different interest/discount rates, inflation, and technical lifetime. While optimum lifetime increases as each of these parameters increase, LCOE only goes up with the economic rates. Our results indicate, in certain local conditions, it may be possible that the optimum is lower than the technical lifetime—i.e., it would then be better to set the system decommissioning date even before the warranty. By bridging realistic system performance with LCOE analysis to identify the year of minimum LCOE, our approach provides investors and policymakers with a robust metric to maximize financial returns and decide when to decommission.
{"title":"Defining Solar Farm Lifetime From Techno-economic Indicators","authors":"Shakil Hossain;M. Rezwan Khan;M. Ryyan Khan","doi":"10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3647937","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3647937","url":null,"abstract":"Photovoltaic (PV) system design and project viability are conventionally decided based on the assumptions: “end of life at 80% capacity” and “20–25 year system life.” These heuristic assumptions decouple the local financial context from long-term technical performance dynamics, obscuring the technoeconomic optimal in the decision aiding analyses. In this article, we present a technoeconomics driven framework to explain the project lifetime of PV farms. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) varies with the chosen project lifetime, and we show that there is an optimum operational life of the PV system where LCOE is minimum. We compare the fixed-rate degradation (FRD) model to a realistic degradation (RD) profile to quantify LCOE and optimal project lifetimes. FRD significantly overestimates the optimum lifetime. For a baseline system reaching 80% capacity in 25 years (“technical lifetime”), the FRD model predicts an unrealistic optimum life of 58 years, whereas the RD model yields 32 years at 2.5% interest rate and 2% inflation rate. We study the variation in optimum lifetimes for different interest/discount rates, inflation, and technical lifetime. While optimum lifetime increases as each of these parameters increase, LCOE only goes up with the economic rates. Our results indicate, in certain local conditions, it may be possible that the optimum is lower than the technical lifetime—i.e., it would then be better to set the system decommissioning date even before the warranty. By bridging realistic system performance with LCOE analysis to identify the year of minimum LCOE, our approach provides investors and policymakers with a robust metric to maximize financial returns and decide when to decommission.","PeriodicalId":445,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics","volume":"16 2","pages":"272-281"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146223820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-12DOI: 10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3646334
William B. Hobbs;Drumil Joshi
Solar plant operators have to schedule outages for periodic maintenance, where plants or subsets of plants are shut down. Outages can last many hours to several days and result in lost energy generation. Scheduling outages one or more days in advance may be required for staffing purposes and to provide adequate notification to grid operators. Because solar generation can vary from one day to the next, it is ideal for outage scheduling to be informed by the weather, with resulting generation that will or could occur on each day being considered for an outage. In this work, we demonstrate how forecasts made with open-source data and tools can improve maintenance outage scheduling relative to not using forecasts, reducing losses relative to perfect scheduling by more than half. Reference code to replicate this work, which is freely available, is also introduced.
{"title":"Using Open-Source Forecasts for Solar Plant Maintenance Outage Scheduling Can Reduce Lost Energy","authors":"William B. Hobbs;Drumil Joshi","doi":"10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3646334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3646334","url":null,"abstract":"Solar plant operators have to schedule outages for periodic maintenance, where plants or subsets of plants are shut down. Outages can last many hours to several days and result in lost energy generation. Scheduling outages one or more days in advance may be required for staffing purposes and to provide adequate notification to grid operators. Because solar generation can vary from one day to the next, it is ideal for outage scheduling to be informed by the weather, with resulting generation that will or could occur on each day being considered for an outage. In this work, we demonstrate how forecasts made with open-source data and tools can improve maintenance outage scheduling relative to not using forecasts, reducing losses relative to perfect scheduling by more than half. Reference code to replicate this work, which is freely available, is also introduced.","PeriodicalId":445,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics","volume":"16 2","pages":"299-304"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=11345810","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146223775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-05DOI: 10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3645781
Kevin S. Anderson;Adam R. Jensen;Daniel M. Riley
In this article, we present a computationally efficient method for determining optimal backtracking rotations for single-axis solar trackers on nonuniform terrain. The method allows for ganged tracking, mechanical rotation constraints, uneven row spacing, and arbitrary maximum allowable shaded fractions (to enable “fractional backtracking”). As with previous 2-D approaches, the method is suitable for terrain that varies in the transverse direction with respect to the rotation axis of the trackers. The novelty of the method lies in formulating the problem of shade avoidance as a linear problem, which is achieved by using the row interception width as the optimization variable instead of rotation angles. Formulating backtracking as a linear problem enables the use of extremely efficient linear programming algorithms, making the method highly scalable, requiring less than 1 min to compute optimal rotation schedules for hundreds of trackers. It also produces more effective backtracking rotations, reducing the frequency of shading by 4× and improving system energy output by 1%–2%.
{"title":"A Linear Programming Approach to Backtracking for Single-Axis Trackers on Rolling Terrain","authors":"Kevin S. Anderson;Adam R. Jensen;Daniel M. Riley","doi":"10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3645781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3645781","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we present a computationally efficient method for determining optimal backtracking rotations for single-axis solar trackers on nonuniform terrain. The method allows for ganged tracking, mechanical rotation constraints, uneven row spacing, and arbitrary maximum allowable shaded fractions (to enable “fractional backtracking”). As with previous 2-D approaches, the method is suitable for terrain that varies in the transverse direction with respect to the rotation axis of the trackers. The novelty of the method lies in formulating the problem of shade avoidance as a linear problem, which is achieved by using the row interception width as the optimization variable instead of rotation angles. Formulating backtracking as a linear problem enables the use of extremely efficient linear programming algorithms, making the method highly scalable, requiring less than 1 min to compute optimal rotation schedules for hundreds of trackers. It also produces more effective backtracking rotations, reducing the frequency of shading by 4× and improving system energy output by 1%–2%.","PeriodicalId":445,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics","volume":"16 2","pages":"291-298"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=11327451","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146223774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-31DOI: 10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642809
S. Tsuchida;K. Misawa;S. Korikawa;N. Yamada
Vertical bifacial photovoltaic (VBPV) systems are promising for deployment in snowy regions, where sunlight reflected from snow-covered ground enhances rear-side irradiance. However, the low solar altitude during winter increases mutual shading between arrays, leading to mismatch losses. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a separated-string configuration—where the upper and lower module strings are electrically independent—in reducing shading losses under varying snow conditions, array spacings, and azimuth angles. Field measurements were conducted on an 80 kWDC (40 kWAC) agrivoltaic VBPV system installed in Hokkaido, Japan. The data were analyzed using simulations that integrate ray tracing and cell-level circuit modeling. Results indicate that increased ground albedo due to snow enhances winter electricity generation per unit solar irradiation by a factor of 1.7. However, for the tested system with a 10 m array spacing, the annual relative improvement achieved by the separated-string configuration was less than 1% due to the low occurrence of partial shading. Under simulated conditions with narrower 4 m array spacing and array azimuth angles of 150° and 180°, the relative improvement in winter exceeded 2.5%, reaching 3.7% and 9.2%, respectively. These findings suggest that the separated-string configuration is an effective design strategy primarily for VBPV systems with narrow array spacing in snowy, high-latitude regions characterized by high surface albedo.
{"title":"Performance Enhancement of Vertical Bifacial Photovoltaic Systems in Snowy Regions Using a Separated-String Configuration","authors":"S. Tsuchida;K. Misawa;S. Korikawa;N. Yamada","doi":"10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642809","url":null,"abstract":"Vertical bifacial photovoltaic (VBPV) systems are promising for deployment in snowy regions, where sunlight reflected from snow-covered ground enhances rear-side irradiance. However, the low solar altitude during winter increases mutual shading between arrays, leading to mismatch losses. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a separated-string configuration—where the upper and lower module strings are electrically independent—in reducing shading losses under varying snow conditions, array spacings, and azimuth angles. Field measurements were conducted on an 80 kW<sub>DC</sub> (40 kW<sub>AC</sub>) agrivoltaic VBPV system installed in Hokkaido, Japan. The data were analyzed using simulations that integrate ray tracing and cell-level circuit modeling. Results indicate that increased ground albedo due to snow enhances winter electricity generation per unit solar irradiation by a factor of 1.7. However, for the tested system with a 10 m array spacing, the annual relative improvement achieved by the separated-string configuration was less than 1% due to the low occurrence of partial shading. Under simulated conditions with narrower 4 m array spacing and array azimuth angles of 150° and 180°, the relative improvement in winter exceeded 2.5%, reaching 3.7% and 9.2%, respectively. These findings suggest that the separated-string configuration is an effective design strategy primarily for VBPV systems with narrow array spacing in snowy, high-latitude regions characterized by high surface albedo.","PeriodicalId":445,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics","volume":"16 2","pages":"282-290"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146223779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642887
Jing-Wu Dong;Jyun-Guei Huang;Yu-Min Lin;Kuan-Wei Lee;Yu-Qian Ye;Che-Yu Lin
This study establishes an integrated approach to quantify partial shading losses in commercial half-cut photovoltaic modules. Systematic indoor experiments were conducted on a 440 W c-Si half-cut module, providing current-voltage data under controlled shading. The data were used to calibrate a detailed LTspice circuit model. Further, an analytical loss function was developed to predict power losses as a function of shaded substring fraction and configuration. This analytical loss function was then refined through empirical fitting to the experimentally validated LTspice model, and it closely matches both the designed simulation conditions used for data fitting and independent representative shading scenarios. This framework offers a reliable and efficient tool for predicting shading losses in series-connected half-cut PV modules, facilitating more accurate system design and performance assessment.
本研究建立了一种综合方法来量化商业半切光伏组件的部分遮阳损失。在440 W c-Si半切模块上进行了系统的室内实验，提供了受控遮光下的电流-电压数据。这些数据被用来校准详细的LTspice电路模型。此外，还开发了一个分析损失函数来预测功率损失，作为阴影子串分数和配置的函数。然后，通过经验拟合对实验验证的LTspice模型进行改进，该分析损失函数与用于数据拟合的设计模拟条件和独立的代表性遮阳情景密切匹配。该框架为预测串联半切光伏模块的遮阳损失提供了可靠和有效的工具，有助于更准确的系统设计和性能评估。
{"title":"Partial Shading Losses in Half-Cut PV Modules: Experiments, Circuit Simulation, and an Analytical Loss Function","authors":"Jing-Wu Dong;Jyun-Guei Huang;Yu-Min Lin;Kuan-Wei Lee;Yu-Qian Ye;Che-Yu Lin","doi":"10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642887","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642887","url":null,"abstract":"This study establishes an integrated approach to quantify partial shading losses in commercial half-cut photovoltaic modules. Systematic indoor experiments were conducted on a 440 W c-Si half-cut module, providing current-voltage data under controlled shading. The data were used to calibrate a detailed LTspice circuit model. Further, an analytical loss function was developed to predict power losses as a function of shaded substring fraction and configuration. This analytical loss function was then refined through empirical fitting to the experimentally validated LTspice model, and it closely matches both the designed simulation conditions used for data fitting and independent representative shading scenarios. This framework offers a reliable and efficient tool for predicting shading losses in series-connected half-cut PV modules, facilitating more accurate system design and performance assessment.","PeriodicalId":445,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics","volume":"16 2","pages":"242-249"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146223817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642585
{"title":"Call for Papers for a Special Issue of IEEE Transactions on Electron Devices on “Ultrawide Band Gap Semiconductor Device for RF, Power and Optoelectronic Applications”","authors":"","doi":"10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642585","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":445,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics","volume":"16 1","pages":"187-188"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=11311579","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145802325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642495
{"title":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics Information for Authors","authors":"","doi":"10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3642495","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":445,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics","volume":"16 1","pages":"C3-C3"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=11311604","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145802350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3637986
Surajit Das Barman;Shazzad Hossain;Rakibuzzaman Shah;Syed Islam;SM Muyeen;Apurv Kumar
Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) thunderstorms from intense bushfires are major lightning sources, igniting secondary fires and damaging electrical infrastructure. Unlike conventional lightning surge studies based on generic thunderstorm conditions, this study develops a novel modeling framework rooted in atmospheric pyroCb thundercloud dynamics. A numerical model is employed to simulate downward leader propagation in pyroCb lightning via the dielectric breakdown model, explicitly coupling charge structure, wind-shear-driven displacement, and leader dynamics with surge analysis. Results show wind shear extensions of 0–12 km significantly influence charge distribution and lightning type, shifting from intracloud to negative cloud-to-ground (–CG) discharges as initiation potential changes from 49.34 MV (4 km extension) to –450.69 MV (12 km extension). Findings indicate that CG flashes predominantly strike within 26–27 km, emphasizing charge density variations in leader development. The extracted return stroke current, peaking at 350 kA, is modeled as a MATLAB time-series function and applied to a grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system to analyze surge effects. Results show pyroCb lightning surges propagate through electrical networks, causing extreme overvoltages, equipment failure, and operational disruptions. By directly linking pyroCb atmospheric processes with renewable energy infrastructure response, this study makes the first integrated assessment of bushfire-driven lightning surges on PV systems. These findings emphasize the need to assess renewable energy infrastructure vulnerabilities to extreme weather-driven lightning events. By clarifying leader dynamics and surge impacts, this study advances lightning protection research and highlights the importance of robust mitigation strategies to safeguard electrical systems against pyroCb lightning hazards.
{"title":"Modeling and Analysis of PyroCb Lightning Leader Impacts on PV Systems","authors":"Surajit Das Barman;Shazzad Hossain;Rakibuzzaman Shah;Syed Islam;SM Muyeen;Apurv Kumar","doi":"10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3637986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2025.3637986","url":null,"abstract":"Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) thunderstorms from intense bushfires are major lightning sources, igniting secondary fires and damaging electrical infrastructure. Unlike conventional lightning surge studies based on generic thunderstorm conditions, this study develops a novel modeling framework rooted in atmospheric pyroCb thundercloud dynamics. A numerical model is employed to simulate downward leader propagation in pyroCb lightning via the dielectric breakdown model, explicitly coupling charge structure, wind-shear-driven displacement, and leader dynamics with surge analysis. Results show wind shear extensions of 0–12 km significantly influence charge distribution and lightning type, shifting from intracloud to negative cloud-to-ground (–CG) discharges as initiation potential changes from 49.34 MV (4 km extension) to –450.69 MV (12 km extension). Findings indicate that CG flashes predominantly strike within 26–27 km, emphasizing charge density variations in leader development. The extracted return stroke current, peaking at 350 kA, is modeled as a MATLAB time-series function and applied to a grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system to analyze surge effects. Results show pyroCb lightning surges propagate through electrical networks, causing extreme overvoltages, equipment failure, and operational disruptions. By directly linking pyroCb atmospheric processes with renewable energy infrastructure response, this study makes the first integrated assessment of bushfire-driven lightning surges on PV systems. These findings emphasize the need to assess renewable energy infrastructure vulnerabilities to extreme weather-driven lightning events. By clarifying leader dynamics and surge impacts, this study advances lightning protection research and highlights the importance of robust mitigation strategies to safeguard electrical systems against pyroCb lightning hazards.","PeriodicalId":445,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics","volume":"16 2","pages":"257-271"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146223815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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