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Are the unhappy unemployed to blame for unrest? Scrutinising participation in the Arab Spring uprisings 不快乐的失业者是动乱的罪魁祸首吗?审查参与阿拉伯之春起义的情况
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-25 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0007
Kari Paasonen
Abstract Unemployment is considered a significant driver behind the so-called Arab Spring, and more generally behind protests, rebellions, and civil wars. However, the empirical evidence of this hypothesised link between unemployment and political instability is scant and contradictory. This article contributes to filling this gap. In addition, this is the first study which will concentrate on the role of unemployment in the case of the Arab Spring uprisings. The study utilises regression analysis and several survey data sets. The results show that compared to the employed, the unemployed are not more likely to have participated in the Arab Spring unrests or protests in the Arab world in general. Further analyses reveal that, as expected, the unemployed are less satisfied with life and not particularly interested in politics. In turn, being dissatisfied with life does not influence the likelihood that an individual revolts, but those interested in politics are considerably more active protesters. Taken together, the results indicate that the Arab unemployed were unhappy, but due to their low interest in politics this dissatisfaction did not drive them to the streets. These findings together with some earlier results from different corners of the world suggest that the linkage of unemployment and political instability is remarkably weaker than often assumed.
失业被认为是所谓的阿拉伯之春背后的一个重要驱动因素,更广泛地说,是抗议、叛乱和内战背后的驱动因素。然而,失业与政治不稳定之间存在这种假设联系的经验证据不足且相互矛盾。本文有助于填补这一空白。此外,这是第一项集中研究失业在阿拉伯之春起义中所起作用的研究。该研究利用回归分析和几个调查数据集。研究结果表明,与有工作的人相比,失业的人一般不太可能参与阿拉伯世界的阿拉伯之春动乱或抗议活动。进一步的分析表明,正如预期的那样,失业者对生活的满意度较低,对政治也不是特别感兴趣。反过来,对生活不满意并不影响个人反抗的可能性,但那些对政治感兴趣的人是相当积极的抗议者。综上所述,调查结果表明,阿拉伯的失业者并不快乐,但由于他们对政治不感兴趣,这种不满并没有驱使他们走上街头。这些发现和来自世界不同角落的一些早期结果表明,失业和政治不稳定之间的联系比通常认为的要弱得多。
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引用次数: 4
A Cross-National Analysis of Forced Population Resettlement in Counterinsurgency Campaigns 反叛乱运动中强迫人口重新安置的跨国分析
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-16 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0022
Tobias Böhmelt, Christoph Dworschak, Ulrich Pilster, Julian Walterskirchen
Abstract This article studies the forcible relocation of large segments of the society in times of war. Theoretically, our work is based on the hearts-and-minds approach for explaining counterinsurgents’ strategies. We link this general framework to two more specific factors: insurgents’ external support and the incumbent’s status as a foreign occupier. The main contribution of our research is given by the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on population displacement and counterinsurgency campaigns after World War II. We show that insurgents’ external support and incumbents’ status as a foreign occupier are among the main factors raising the risk of forced population resettlement. This article is a systematic, quantitative study of forced displacement across a large set of conflicts, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind forcible relocation as an indiscriminate strategy follow major trends across insurgencies.
摘要本文研究了战争时期社会中大部分人的强制迁移。从理论上讲,我们的工作是基于心灵的方法来解释反叛乱分子的策略。我们将这一总体框架与两个更具体的因素联系起来:叛乱分子的外部支持和现任者作为外国占领者的地位。我们研究的主要贡献是跨国实证分析,我们结合了二战后人口流离失所和反叛乱运动的数据。我们表明,叛乱分子的外部支持和现任者作为外国占领者的地位是增加被迫重新安置人口风险的主要因素。这篇文章对一系列冲突中的强迫流离失所进行了系统、定量的研究,我们证明了强迫搬迁作为一种不分青红皂白的策略背后的机制遵循了叛乱的主要趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Could the literature on the economic determinants of sanctions be biased? 关于制裁的经济决定因素的文献是否有偏见?
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0048
P. Bergeijk, B. Demena, Alemayehu Reta, Gabriela Benalcazar Jativa, P. Kimararungu
Abstract The economic theory on economic sanctions gives strong indications that success depends positively on pre-sanction trade linkage and prior relations and negatively on sanction duration. However, the empirical literature has not arrived at consensus regarding these factors. Our research puzzle is the observation that despite more than three decades of empirical research on economic sanctions no consensus has yet emerged on the sign and significance of the impact of the key variables that theoretically determine the success of economic sanctions. In our research we explore reasons for the heterogeneity of the findings in the literature and the persistence nature of the debate.
经济制裁的经济学理论有力地表明,成功与否正依赖于制裁前的贸易联系和事前关系,负依赖于制裁的持续时间。然而,关于这些因素的实证文献尚未达成共识。我们的研究难题是,尽管对经济制裁进行了三十多年的实证研究,但尚未就理论上决定经济制裁成功的关键变量的影响的迹象和意义达成共识。在我们的研究中,我们探讨了文献中发现的异质性和争论的持久性的原因。
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引用次数: 4
Trade and Military Alliances: Evidence from NATO 贸易和军事联盟:来自北约的证据
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0027
F. J. Callado-Muñoz, J. Hromcová, N. Utrero-González
Abstract In this paper we analyse the effect of multilateral defence alliances in arms trade among allies. We postulate that the access to the frontier technology weaponry enabled only to military allies will intensify arms trade. The benefits of such trade are claimed to be in security and technology diffusion. We execute an empirical analysis for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Results show that being a member or partner of NATO significantly increases arm imports coming from the alliance, and that this increase cannot be attributed to economic and additional country characteristics.
摘要本文分析了多边防务联盟在盟国间武器贸易中的作用。我们假设,只有军事盟友才能获得前沿技术武器,这将加剧武器贸易。据称,这种贸易的好处在于安全和技术扩散。我们对北大西洋公约组织(北约)进行了实证分析。结果表明,作为北约成员国或合作伙伴,来自北约的武器进口显著增加,而这种增加不能归因于经济和其他国家的特点。
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引用次数: 2
Four Ways We Know the Democratic Peace Correlation Does Not Exist in the State of Knowledge 认识状态下民主和平关系不存在的四种途径
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-11-29 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0023
M. Mousseau
Abstract Multiple studies have shown that when advanced-market “contract-intensive” economy is considered in a regression of fatal militarized interstate disputes, crises, or wars, the democratic peace correlation, the observed dearth of militarized conflict between democratic nations, becomes near zero and insignificant. Defenders of the existence of a correlation of democracy with peace claim these studies contain multiple errors. This article examines the state of evidence behind all claims in this debate. Four crucial facts are identified: (1) There is no report in print that shows democracy significant in a regression of fatal disputes controlling for contractualist economy that is unencumbered with controversial practices; (2) Every empirical defense of democracy has been rebutted, and the rebuttals remain uncontested; (3) There is no democratic peace in the nineteenth century, when there were no contractualist dyads but were democratic dyads; and (4) New analyses with revised direct data on contractualist economy covering 94% of observations over the largest-observed 1920–2010 period show that democracy without contractualist economy has a near-zero correlation with peace. Together, these facts inform us that there are no scientific grounds for deeming the democratic peace correlation as existing in the state of knowledge.
多项研究表明,当发达市场“契约密集型”经济被视为致命的军事化国家间争端、危机或战争的回归时,民主和平的相关性,即民主国家之间观察到的军事化冲突的缺失,变得接近于零和微不足道。民主与和平之间存在相关性的捍卫者声称,这些研究存在多重错误。这篇文章考察了这场辩论中所有主张背后的证据状况。确定了四个关键事实:(1)没有任何出版的报告表明民主在控制不受争议实践阻碍的合同主义经济的致命争议的回归中具有重要意义;(2)每一种对民主的经验性辩护都遭到了反驳,而且这些反驳仍然是无可辩驳的;(3) 19世纪没有民主的和平,当时没有契约主义的两派,只有民主的两派;(4)利用修正后的契约经济直接数据进行的新分析,涵盖了1920-2010年最大规模观测期间94%的观测结果,结果表明,没有契约经济的民主与和平的相关性几乎为零。综上所述,这些事实告诉我们,没有科学依据认为民主和平关系存在于知识状态中。
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引用次数: 4
Winner of the 2019 Lewis Fry Richardson Award, Jean-Paul Azam 2019年刘易斯·弗莱·理查森奖得主让-保罗·阿扎姆
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-11-28 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0041
V. Thelen, S. Gates, Kartika Bhatia
Abstract The award committee has chosen Jean-Paul Azam as the winner of the 2019 Lewis Fry Richardson Award in particular in recognition of his contributions to the study of violent conflict and its prevention. The jury highlighted the key role of Jean-Paul Azam’s works on applying rational choice theory to understand armed conflicts, providing a consistent conceptual framework. Many of the resulting hypotheses were empirically tested, usually with the help of some co-authors to identify the most relevant causes of violent conflicts and their prevention. His work has provided important insights on diverse topics relating to civil war and terrorism.
摘要颁奖委员会选择让-保罗·阿扎姆为2019年刘易斯·弗莱·理查森奖得主,特别是为了表彰他对暴力冲突及其预防研究的贡献。陪审团强调了让-保罗·阿扎姆作品在应用理性选择理论理解武装冲突方面的关键作用,提供了一个一致的概念框架。通常在一些合著者的帮助下,对由此产生的许多假设进行了实证检验,以确定暴力冲突的最相关原因及其预防。他的工作为有关内战和恐怖主义的各种主题提供了重要见解。
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引用次数: 0
Israel’s Foreign Aid to Africa & UN Voting: An Empirical Examination 以色列对非洲的对外援助与联合国投票:一个实证检验
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-11-28 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0035
Carmela Lutmar, Leah Mandler
Abstract According to International Relations scholarship, the main formal motivation for foreign aid is usually the unexpressed expectation for improvement of bilateral relations and overall international support. There is an anticipation that aid recipients will not “forget” their donors on the international stage, in particularly during important sessions at the UNGA. We test this assertion empirically on the case of Israeli foreign aid to African countries, using data on Israeli Official Development Aid provisions between 1997 and 2014, and data on voting patterns of aid recipients in the UN General Assembly (UNGA). Our results testify that Israeli bilateral humanitarian foreign aid not only has not provided its expected diplomatic revenues, but may perhaps even hindered African states’ support in the UN. Concomitantly, our results testify that Israeli Official Development Aid (ODA) does not have the anticipated long term effects on international support towards Israel, but instead only a short-lived influence. The results are informative about the usefulness of foreign aid as a diplomatic tool, with important policy implications for decision makers in Israel and worldwide.
摘要根据国际关系学,对外援助的主要形式动机通常是对改善双边关系和整体国际支持的未表达的期望。人们预计,受援者不会在国际舞台上“忘记”他们的捐助者,特别是在联合国大会的重要会议期间。我们使用1997年至2014年间以色列官方发展援助条款的数据,以及联合国大会援助对象投票模式的数据,以以色列对非洲国家的对外援助为例,实证检验了这一论断。我们的研究结果证明,以色列的双边人道主义对外援助不仅没有提供预期的外交收入,甚至可能阻碍非洲国家在联合国的支持。与此同时,我们的结果证明,以色列官方发展援助对国际社会对以色列的支持没有预期的长期影响,而只是短暂的影响。研究结果为外国援助作为外交工具的有用性提供了信息,对以色列和世界各地的决策者具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 1
Introduction to the Proceedings of the 19th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference 第19届廷伯根欧洲和平科学会议论文集简介
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-11-25 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0047
Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott, Enzo Nussio
The 19th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science conference took place at the Institute of Social Studies in the Hague 24–26 June, 2019. Nearing the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the annual conference, it continues to be a vibrant international and interdisciplinary meeting with presentations engaging in broader theoretical and empirical debates as well as introductions to much needed new data collections in the conflict and peace science community. This special issue is a collection of some of the papers presented at the conference in the format of letters. Overall, the proceedings include 12 letters, which are short versions of the on-going research projects in the field of peace science broadly defined.1 This year, the topics reflect the diverse range of innovative approaches in studying peace and conflict. The first letter in the proceedings is the annual NEPS lecture by Jean-Paul Azam. This paper is deservedly the opening letter for the special issue as the NEPS lecture is the keynote of the conference, established to acknowledge the significant contribution the individual has made in the area of peace science.2 Jean-Paul’s lecture shows how instrumental variables can be used to evaluate policy effectiveness using historical data through an example from the Naxalite conflict in India. The article starts by highlighting how misleading regression results can be without proper instrumentation and worse yet, how such misleading findings can be used as basis for decisions by policy-makers for decades before such errors are identified. In order for econometricians to avoid making such mistakes in evaluating policy effectiveness, they need to uncover the policy maker’s true preferences (which are often at odds with the official ones) by controlling for the policy maker’s endogenous responses. The next letter in the proceedings follows naturally from Azam’s lecture as it introduces the work and contributions of the winner of the 2019 Lewis Fry Richardson Award: Jean-Paul Azam. Here Thelen, Gates, and Bhatia highlight how Azam’s work on explaining violent conflict and its prevention is highly deserving of the Lewis Fry Richardson Award due to being in the ‘spirit and nature of Lewis’ work on violence and armed conflict’. The authors describe Azam’s contribution in peace science through his research in areas such as terrorism and foreign aid, civilian targeting and civil wars with the use of formal theoretical models and econometric analysis. The remainder of the special issue includes articles in three broad categories: new data collection projects in the area of peace and conflict, empirical case studies of Mexico and Liberia, as well as letters researching foreign policy and behaviour of states in the international arena. In terms of the data collection articles, in the first article Huber and Basedau introduce their newly created Religious Minorities at Risk dataset, which covers overall 771 religious minorities worldwide from 2000 to 2014
2019年6月24日至26日,第19届Jan Tinbergen欧洲和平科学会议在海牙社会研究所举行。在年会成立20周年之际,它仍然是一次充满活力的国际和跨学科会议,其演讲涉及更广泛的理论和实证辩论,并介绍了冲突与和平科学界急需的新数据收集。这期特刊汇集了以信件形式在会议上发表的一些论文。总的来说,会议记录包括12封信,这些信是广义和平科学领域正在进行的研究项目的简短版本。1今年的主题反映了研究和平与冲突的各种创新方法。会议记录中的第一封信是让-保罗·阿扎姆的《国家环境政策法》年度讲座。由于《国家环境政策法》讲座是本次会议的主题,因此,Jean-Paul的讲座通过印度纳萨尔派冲突的一个例子,展示了如何利用历史数据使用工具变量来评估政策的有效性。这篇文章首先强调了在没有适当工具的情况下,误导性的回归结果是如何产生的,更糟糕的是,在发现此类错误之前,这些误导性的发现如何被用作决策者几十年的决策基础。为了避免计量经济学家在评估政策有效性时犯这样的错误,他们需要通过控制决策者的内生反应来揭示决策者的真实偏好(通常与官方偏好不一致)。会议记录中的下一封信自然来自阿扎姆的演讲,介绍了2019年刘易斯·弗莱·理查森奖得主让·保罗·阿扎姆(Jean-Paul Azam)的工作和贡献。在这里,Thelen、Gates和Bhatia强调了Azam在解释暴力冲突及其预防方面的工作非常值得获得Lewis Fry Richardson奖,因为这符合“Lewis关于暴力和武装冲突的工作的精神和性质”。作者描述了阿扎姆在和平科学方面的贡献,他利用正式的理论模型和计量经济学分析,在恐怖主义和外国援助、平民目标和内战等领域进行了研究。特刊的其余部分包括三大类文章:和平与冲突领域的新数据收集项目、墨西哥和利比里亚的实证案例研究,以及研究各国在国际舞台上的外交政策和行为的信件。在数据收集文章方面,Huber和Basedau在第一篇文章中介绍了他们新创建的风险宗教少数群体数据集,该数据集涵盖了2000年至2014年全球771个宗教少数群体。数据集还包括关于这些群体的客观剥夺和主观不满的信息。虽然关于种族分裂和不满的数据越来越多,但关于宗教的系统数据却少得多。因此,Huber和Basedau的数据收集工作将对研究宗教和冲突的学生非常有用。另一方面,Mousseau、Napolitano和Olsen关注土耳其库尔德冲突期间侵犯人权的行为。他们新收集的数据集编码了交战方在1990-2018年期间对不同目标实施的不同类型侵犯人权行为的信息。有了这些数据,我们可以探索库尔德冲突中的不同各方是否以及在多大程度上遵守国际准则。此外,作者的数据收集基于一个框架,该框架也可以应用于其他情况。最后,奥托深入探讨了维和特派团研究不足的方面——文职人员的部署。她通过使用探索性描述性统计数据表明,在联合国维和特派团部署文职人员可能会对内战期间侵犯人权的行为产生影响。然而,正如她的研究项目所表明的那样,需要更多的数据来询问维和文职方面研究不足的领域。在她的结论中,她还指明了未来的几个研究途径,这可能对该领域的其他研究人员有所帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Let’s Call their Bluff: The Politics of Econometric Methodology 让我们揭穿他们的虚张声势:计量经济学方法论的政治
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-11-23 DOI: 10.1515/PEPS-2019-0029
J. Azam
Abstract This short paper focuses on econometric issues raised by intentional government interventions aimed at influencing some politically sensitive outcomes. It first presents an example where multiple regression analysis provides quite a misleading diagnosis about foreign aid and immigration that can be rectified by using a causal analysis based on instrumental variables. It then offers a simple theoretical framework to bring out the basic information asymmetries affecting the game between the econometrician and the policy maker and their implications for the choice of instruments in a near-identification strategy. This approach is shown to provide a strong political judgement in the case of the armed violence between local governments and “Maoist” insurgents in eight states of India. Proper econometric analysis shows that the initiative of the insurgency cannot be blamed on the rebels.
摘要这篇短文的重点是政府有意干预所引发的经济计量问题,这些干预旨在影响一些政治敏感的结果。它首先给出了一个例子,多元回归分析提供了一个关于外国援助和移民的误导性诊断,可以通过使用基于工具变量的因果分析来纠正。然后,它提供了一个简单的理论框架来揭示影响计量经济学家和政策制定者之间博弈的基本信息不对称,以及它们对近识别策略中工具选择的影响。在印度八个邦的地方政府与“毛派”叛乱分子之间发生武装暴力事件时,这种做法被证明提供了强有力的政治判断。适当的经济计量分析表明,叛乱的主动性不能归咎于叛乱分子。
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引用次数: 5
Introducing the Human Rights Violations Dataset for the Kurdish Conflict in Turkey, 1990–2018 介绍土耳其1990年至2018年库尔德冲突侵犯人权数据集
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-11-23 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0036
Demet Yalcin Mousseau, Justin Napolitano, Alex Olsen
Abstract This study introduces a new event dataset on the human rights violations in the Kurdish conflict in Turkey perpetrated by both the State and the armed rebel group, the PKK (the Kurdistan Workers Party), from 1990 to 2018. The dataset codes human rights violation events that victimize civilians, including women and children, identifying the perpetrator, type of victim, type of human right violation, and the place of the violation. The categories of human rights violations include the physical and political rights drawn from the laws and treaties adopted by the U.N., such as killings or deaths of civilians, illegal detention and arrests, and freedom of peaceful assembly. The dataset is useful in examining the trends and motives of perpetrators in committing these violations and for seeking to understand the extent to which state and non-state rebel groups abide by international norms in armed conflicts. The framework of this dataset, although developed for the Kurdish conflict, is applicable and can be extended to other armed conflict cases, facilitating cross-conflict research on a more comparative basis.
摘要本研究介绍了一个关于1990年至2018年土耳其国家和武装反叛组织库尔德工人党在库尔德冲突中侵犯人权的新事件数据集。该数据集对伤害包括妇女和儿童在内的平民的侵犯人权事件进行了编码,确定了肇事者、受害者类型、侵犯人权类型和侵犯地点。侵犯人权的类别包括联合国通过的法律和条约规定的人身权利和政治权利,如杀害或杀害平民、非法拘留和逮捕以及和平集会自由。该数据集有助于研究肇事者实施这些侵犯行为的趋势和动机,并有助于了解国家和非国家反叛团体在武装冲突中遵守国际规范的程度。该数据集的框架虽然是为库尔德冲突开发的,但适用于其他武装冲突案件,有助于在更具比较性的基础上进行跨冲突研究。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy
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