Abstract The paper revisits the causality relationship between defence spending and economic growth for South Africa during the period 1960–2018. The results of our estimation show that defence spending and economic growth are cointegrated and that there is bidirectional Granger causality running between defence spending and economic growth in the long run. We then applied a Hodrick-Prescott filter to decompose the trend and the fluctuation components of the defence spending and economic growth series. The findings from the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test estimations show that in the long- and short-run, the trends and cyclicality of defence spending retard economic growth. The estimation results show that there is cointegration between the trends and the cyclical components of the two series, which suggests that the Granger causality possibly relates to the business cycle. This study suggests that investing more and reducing inefficiency spending in the defence sector during fluctuations can further stimulate economic growth in South Africa.
{"title":"Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis","authors":"C. Saba","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper revisits the causality relationship between defence spending and economic growth for South Africa during the period 1960–2018. The results of our estimation show that defence spending and economic growth are cointegrated and that there is bidirectional Granger causality running between defence spending and economic growth in the long run. We then applied a Hodrick-Prescott filter to decompose the trend and the fluctuation components of the defence spending and economic growth series. The findings from the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test estimations show that in the long- and short-run, the trends and cyclicality of defence spending retard economic growth. The estimation results show that there is cointegration between the trends and the cyclical components of the two series, which suggests that the Granger causality possibly relates to the business cycle. This study suggests that investing more and reducing inefficiency spending in the defence sector during fluctuations can further stimulate economic growth in South Africa.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48273761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.1515/peps-2021-frontmatter3
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-frontmatter3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-frontmatter3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47720585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The forced migration literature has acknowledged violence as the main driver of internal displacement in the context of armed conflicts. Nonetheless, scant attention has been devoted to the role of income, a factor identified by the standard economic literature as the key driver of voluntary migration. This study aims to fill in this gap by investigating the impact of agricultural income shocks on the number of internally displaced persons fleeing from violence, in the context of the Colombian armed conflict. To address the possible endogeneity between forced migration and income, we use the standardized deviation of rainfall from its historic mean as an instrumental variable for municipal agricultural income. Our main results suggest that the elasticity of forced migration with respect to agricultural income shocks is unitary. This finding highlights the fact that forced migration is the result of a complex decision-making process where violence interacts with individual characteristics and environmental factors. Therefore, public policies aimed at reducing forced migration from rural to urban areas should develop comprehensive strategies that not only improve security conditions at the place of origin but also enhance agricultural productivity and provide access to risk-coping mechanisms for farmers.
{"title":"The Effects of Agricultural Income Shocks on Forced Migration: Evidence from Colombia","authors":"Paola Palacios, Miguel A. Pérez-Uribe","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The forced migration literature has acknowledged violence as the main driver of internal displacement in the context of armed conflicts. Nonetheless, scant attention has been devoted to the role of income, a factor identified by the standard economic literature as the key driver of voluntary migration. This study aims to fill in this gap by investigating the impact of agricultural income shocks on the number of internally displaced persons fleeing from violence, in the context of the Colombian armed conflict. To address the possible endogeneity between forced migration and income, we use the standardized deviation of rainfall from its historic mean as an instrumental variable for municipal agricultural income. Our main results suggest that the elasticity of forced migration with respect to agricultural income shocks is unitary. This finding highlights the fact that forced migration is the result of a complex decision-making process where violence interacts with individual characteristics and environmental factors. Therefore, public policies aimed at reducing forced migration from rural to urban areas should develop comprehensive strategies that not only improve security conditions at the place of origin but also enhance agricultural productivity and provide access to risk-coping mechanisms for farmers.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49328669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The hypothesis that military spending affects economic growth and other aspects of the economy has been under scrutiny over the last decades. However, the macroeconomic impact of defense outlays is still an open question for researchers and policymakers. Aiming to contribute to the existing debate, this paper combines Keynesian with monetary theory and develops a discrete-time model that allows for potential fiscal-monetary coordination for financing the military sector in order to examine the effects of defense outlays on income and inflation. Τhe theoretical analysis suggests that military budget expansions can only have temporary effects on income, as in the long run, their impact on the economy is solely inflationary. However, the empirical findings associated with the economy of Turkey are not fully consistent with the theoretical conclusions of the specified model.
{"title":"The Effects of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey","authors":"Kyriakos Emmanouilidis, Christos Karpetis","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0058","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The hypothesis that military spending affects economic growth and other aspects of the economy has been under scrutiny over the last decades. However, the macroeconomic impact of defense outlays is still an open question for researchers and policymakers. Aiming to contribute to the existing debate, this paper combines Keynesian with monetary theory and develops a discrete-time model that allows for potential fiscal-monetary coordination for financing the military sector in order to examine the effects of defense outlays on income and inflation. Τhe theoretical analysis suggests that military budget expansions can only have temporary effects on income, as in the long run, their impact on the economy is solely inflationary. However, the empirical findings associated with the economy of Turkey are not fully consistent with the theoretical conclusions of the specified model.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45748065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The Israeli occupation of Palestine is accompanied by violence and a repressive security regime affecting firms’ operations. We assess firms’ status, and female and total employment during 1997–2017 across region–years seeing differently repressive regimes. Indicators of the security regime come from OCHA-oPt, B’Tselem, and World Bank databases. Data on the entire population of establishments come from five waves of the Palestinian Establishment Census allowing for pooled-cross sectional and limited longitudinal analysis. We find that establishments facing tighter regimes – mobility restrictions, physical violence and building demolitions in their governorate – are more likely to suspend their operations or engage in restructuring, rather than continue operating. Repressive regimes are also associated with falling employment levels and in some cases, falling female employment shares. Repressive regimes are thus damaging to employment in Palestine through several channels. Some establishments do not survive, or enter hibernation. Surviving establishments retain fewer workers.
{"title":"Palestinian Firms’ Status and Employment Under the Israeli Security Regime: Evidence from Establishment Censuses","authors":"V. Hlasny, Shireen Alazzawi","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0054","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Israeli occupation of Palestine is accompanied by violence and a repressive security regime affecting firms’ operations. We assess firms’ status, and female and total employment during 1997–2017 across region–years seeing differently repressive regimes. Indicators of the security regime come from OCHA-oPt, B’Tselem, and World Bank databases. Data on the entire population of establishments come from five waves of the Palestinian Establishment Census allowing for pooled-cross sectional and limited longitudinal analysis. We find that establishments facing tighter regimes – mobility restrictions, physical violence and building demolitions in their governorate – are more likely to suspend their operations or engage in restructuring, rather than continue operating. Repressive regimes are also associated with falling employment levels and in some cases, falling female employment shares. Repressive regimes are thus damaging to employment in Palestine through several channels. Some establishments do not survive, or enter hibernation. Surviving establishments retain fewer workers.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45941145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper investigates the nexus of military expenditure, income inequality, and profit rate, applying the non-parametric technique of Partial Least Squares Path Modeling (PLS-PM) to 21 countries for 1988–2008. The findings suggest that military expenditure has a positive effect on income inequality while income inequality has a positive impact on profit rate. In contrast, military expenditure has a (relatively small) positive effect on profit rate. However, these results change significantly once unobserved heterogeneity is considered. Accordingly, based on four segments, although the positive effect of income inequality on profit rate remains the same for each segment, for some segments, the effect of military expenditure on income inequality and profit rate become negative.
{"title":"Soft Modeling of Military Expenditure, Income Inequality, and Profit Rate, 1988–2008","authors":"A. Elveren, A. Tasiran","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates the nexus of military expenditure, income inequality, and profit rate, applying the non-parametric technique of Partial Least Squares Path Modeling (PLS-PM) to 21 countries for 1988–2008. The findings suggest that military expenditure has a positive effect on income inequality while income inequality has a positive impact on profit rate. In contrast, military expenditure has a (relatively small) positive effect on profit rate. However, these results change significantly once unobserved heterogeneity is considered. Accordingly, based on four segments, although the positive effect of income inequality on profit rate remains the same for each segment, for some segments, the effect of military expenditure on income inequality and profit rate become negative.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47783372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Our research question is: Do state-sponsored genocides and mass atrocities disrupt trade? In the “conflict disrupts trade” literature there is substantial research on how interstate and intrastate conflict and terrorism affect trade, but very little research on the possible trade disruption effects of genocides and mass atrocities. Our work helps fill this research gap. We bring a suite of estimation methodologies and robustness checks to the question for a pooled sample of 175 countries for the time period 1970–2017. We also test for trade disruption individually for 26 countries that experienced genocide or mass atrocity. Unlike much of the “conflict disrupts trade” literature, we find little empirical support that genocide disrupts trade and at best weak evidence that mass atrocity disrupts trade. Our results have important implications for atrocity prevention policy; when potential atrocity architects evaluate the expected benefits and costs of carrying out atrocity, it seems that, in most cases, they need not worry about trade disruption costs. Our results also matter for empirical research on risk factors for genocides and mass atrocities, particularly for studies that hypothesize risk reduction properties associated with trade.
{"title":"The Trade Disruption Hypothesis Fails for State-Sponsored Genocides and Mass Atrocities: Why It Matters","authors":"Charles H. Anderton, R. Anderton","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0060","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Our research question is: Do state-sponsored genocides and mass atrocities disrupt trade? In the “conflict disrupts trade” literature there is substantial research on how interstate and intrastate conflict and terrorism affect trade, but very little research on the possible trade disruption effects of genocides and mass atrocities. Our work helps fill this research gap. We bring a suite of estimation methodologies and robustness checks to the question for a pooled sample of 175 countries for the time period 1970–2017. We also test for trade disruption individually for 26 countries that experienced genocide or mass atrocity. Unlike much of the “conflict disrupts trade” literature, we find little empirical support that genocide disrupts trade and at best weak evidence that mass atrocity disrupts trade. Our results have important implications for atrocity prevention policy; when potential atrocity architects evaluate the expected benefits and costs of carrying out atrocity, it seems that, in most cases, they need not worry about trade disruption costs. Our results also matter for empirical research on risk factors for genocides and mass atrocities, particularly for studies that hypothesize risk reduction properties associated with trade.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0060","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42876852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract I investigate the determinants of interstate political alignment, examining why states take part in ongoing conflicts and which side they take in them. The puzzle I seek to address is why some states are much more likely to gain support than others, and whether the likelihood of such support varies on the basis of the issue under dispute and the characteristics of the state itself. I emphasize the interests of rulers, particularly their need to obtain support on issues of high salience to them. The desire for future reciprocity lies at the heart of these alignment decisions. First, leaders consistently reciprocate positive and negative alignments. Second, rulers avoid positively aligning with leaders of unstable or politically unrepresentative states, as the latter are less likely to be in a position to return the favor. In order to test this alignment explanation, I compile a dataset of interventions into existing wars, MIDs, and sanctions regimes, covering the 1816–1999 time period. The results show that not all types of states are likely to enter an ongoing conflict. When those states do join a dispute, they do so on the side of those who helped them in the past.
{"title":"Three is a Crowd: Using Reciprocity to Explain Involvement in Ongoing Disputes","authors":"Gennady Rudkevich","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0038","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I investigate the determinants of interstate political alignment, examining why states take part in ongoing conflicts and which side they take in them. The puzzle I seek to address is why some states are much more likely to gain support than others, and whether the likelihood of such support varies on the basis of the issue under dispute and the characteristics of the state itself. I emphasize the interests of rulers, particularly their need to obtain support on issues of high salience to them. The desire for future reciprocity lies at the heart of these alignment decisions. First, leaders consistently reciprocate positive and negative alignments. Second, rulers avoid positively aligning with leaders of unstable or politically unrepresentative states, as the latter are less likely to be in a position to return the favor. In order to test this alignment explanation, I compile a dataset of interventions into existing wars, MIDs, and sanctions regimes, covering the 1816–1999 time period. The results show that not all types of states are likely to enter an ongoing conflict. When those states do join a dispute, they do so on the side of those who helped them in the past.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48857646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"4th Walter Isard Annual Award for the Best Article in Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","authors":"Raul Caruso, Subhasish M. Chowdhury","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-9015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-9015","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2021-9015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48296882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-02-01DOI: 10.1515/peps-2021-frontmatter1
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-frontmatter1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-frontmatter1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2021-frontmatter1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42461255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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