Abstract The United States has traditionally defined national security in the context of military threats and addressed them through military spending. This article considers whether the United States will rethink this mindset following the disruption of the Covid19 pandemic, during which a non-military actor has inflicted widespread harm. The author argues that the US will not redefine national security explicitly due to the importance of the military in the US economy and the bipartisan trend toward growing the military budget since 2001. However, the pandemic has opened the floodgates with respect to federal spending. This shift will enable the next administration to allocate greater resources to non-military threats such as climate change and emerging diseases, even as it continues to increase defense spending to address traditionally defined military threats such as hypersonics and cyberterrorism.
{"title":"Rethinking U.S. National Security after Covid19","authors":"Linda J. Bilmes","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0055","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The United States has traditionally defined national security in the context of military threats and addressed them through military spending. This article considers whether the United States will rethink this mindset following the disruption of the Covid19 pandemic, during which a non-military actor has inflicted widespread harm. The author argues that the US will not redefine national security explicitly due to the importance of the military in the US economy and the bipartisan trend toward growing the military budget since 2001. However, the pandemic has opened the floodgates with respect to federal spending. This shift will enable the next administration to allocate greater resources to non-military threats such as climate change and emerging diseases, even as it continues to increase defense spending to address traditionally defined military threats such as hypersonics and cyberterrorism.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0055","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49538801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study re-examines the international convergence in defence spending for 125 countries spanning 1985–2018. We employ the approach of Phillips and Sul, which tests for the existence of convergence clubs and the modelling of different transition paths to convergence. Our findings suggest no overall defence spending convergence at the world, income groups (except the low-income countries) and regional levels. However, we identify two convergence clubs using an iterative testing procedure and eventually (i) at world level, these two clubs exhibit convergence, and (ii) while taking into account Gross national income, geography and defence alliances/economic cooperation it is possible to make different number of convergence/divergence clubs. Contrary to previous findings, this study finds that the process of convergence in defence spending does not reflect the desirable emanations of defence policies sharing similar characteristics, at least in terms of the allocation of scarce public resources across the globe.
{"title":"Convergence or Divergence Patterns in Global Defence Spending: Further Evidence from a Nonlinear Single Factor Model","authors":"C. Saba","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study re-examines the international convergence in defence spending for 125 countries spanning 1985–2018. We employ the approach of Phillips and Sul, which tests for the existence of convergence clubs and the modelling of different transition paths to convergence. Our findings suggest no overall defence spending convergence at the world, income groups (except the low-income countries) and regional levels. However, we identify two convergence clubs using an iterative testing procedure and eventually (i) at world level, these two clubs exhibit convergence, and (ii) while taking into account Gross national income, geography and defence alliances/economic cooperation it is possible to make different number of convergence/divergence clubs. Contrary to previous findings, this study finds that the process of convergence in defence spending does not reflect the desirable emanations of defence policies sharing similar characteristics, at least in terms of the allocation of scarce public resources across the globe.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0012","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43151359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We present a non-technical assessment of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on individual level conflict behavior in the household, workplace, and societal interactions in the post-COVID era. We predict that there will be an increase in the intra-household conflict including domestic violence; and the divorce rate will rise. Within workplaces, the pandemic will result both in a higher level of sabotage among the employees, and employee retaliation towards the employer. The pandemic may also affect the diversity and inclusiveness within an organization adversely. In societal interactions, an increase in the identity related conflicts – especially related to the immigration status – can be observed. It is also likely that there will be an increase in the attack and defense or victimization activities in the society. We conclude by proposing various measures for conflict resolution, and a few possible areas of further investigations.
{"title":"Conflict in the Time of (Post-) Corona: Some Assessments from Behavioral Economics","authors":"Subhasish M. Chowdhury","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0052","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We present a non-technical assessment of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on individual level conflict behavior in the household, workplace, and societal interactions in the post-COVID era. We predict that there will be an increase in the intra-household conflict including domestic violence; and the divorce rate will rise. Within workplaces, the pandemic will result both in a higher level of sabotage among the employees, and employee retaliation towards the employer. The pandemic may also affect the diversity and inclusiveness within an organization adversely. In societal interactions, an increase in the identity related conflicts – especially related to the immigration status – can be observed. It is also likely that there will be an increase in the attack and defense or victimization activities in the society. We conclude by proposing various measures for conflict resolution, and a few possible areas of further investigations.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0052","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49177063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Caruso, R. 2020. “What Post COVID-19? ‹‹Avoiding a 21st Century General Crisis››.” Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy 26 (2). May 2020 provides a prescription for avoiding a general global crisis in the Post-Covid-19 era via the revitalization of Post-WWII era international organizations. Here we examine the implications of contributions from the game theory and the trade and conflict realms of the peace science literature to assess the likelihood of successful revitalization of the relevant organizations. Unfortunately, we are more pessimistic than optimistic since the contributions of peace science suggest that countries are more likely to fail to implement the guidelines needed to revitalize these organizations.
{"title":"Guidelines for Revitalizing International Organizations for the Post-Covid-19 Era","authors":"L. Carlson, R. Dacey","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0051","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Caruso, R. 2020. “What Post COVID-19? ‹‹Avoiding a 21st Century General Crisis››.” Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy 26 (2). May 2020 provides a prescription for avoiding a general global crisis in the Post-Covid-19 era via the revitalization of Post-WWII era international organizations. Here we examine the implications of contributions from the game theory and the trade and conflict realms of the peace science literature to assess the likelihood of successful revitalization of the relevant organizations. Unfortunately, we are more pessimistic than optimistic since the contributions of peace science suggest that countries are more likely to fail to implement the guidelines needed to revitalize these organizations.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43618957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Epidemics create risks of social unrest. The great plagues of the past show that social tensions, accumulated over the epidemic and before, often erupted in serious uprisings in the years after the epidemic. Based on historical evidence, we predict that the protests inherited from the pre-COVID-19 period should be crowded out by epidemic-related unrest as long as the epidemic lasts, whereas in the aftermath of the epidemic we should expect the unresolved pre-epidemic grievances to resume even stronger, boosted also by the incremental social grievances related to the epidemic period. While the epidemic lasts, the status quo and incumbent governments tend to consolidate, but a sharp increase in social instability in the aftermath of the epidemic should be expected.
{"title":"COVID-19 and the Potential Consequences for Social Stability","authors":"Roberto Censolo, M. Morelli","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0045","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Epidemics create risks of social unrest. The great plagues of the past show that social tensions, accumulated over the epidemic and before, often erupted in serious uprisings in the years after the epidemic. Based on historical evidence, we predict that the protests inherited from the pre-COVID-19 period should be crowded out by epidemic-related unrest as long as the epidemic lasts, whereas in the aftermath of the epidemic we should expect the unresolved pre-epidemic grievances to resume even stronger, boosted also by the incremental social grievances related to the epidemic period. While the epidemic lasts, the status quo and incumbent governments tend to consolidate, but a sharp increase in social instability in the aftermath of the epidemic should be expected.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0045","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42858296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-24eCollection Date: 2020-09-01DOI: 10.1515/peps-2020-0043
Dominic Rohner
The COVID-19 pandemic entails a medium- and long-run risk of heightened political conflict. In this short essay we distinguish four major consequences of COVID-19 that may fuel social tensions and political violence, namely i) spiking poverty, ii) education under stress, iii) potential for repression, and iv) reduced inter-dependence. After discussing them in turn, we will formulate policy recommendations on how to attenuate these risks.
{"title":"COVID-19 and Conflict: Major Risks and Policy Responses.","authors":"Dominic Rohner","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0043","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic entails a medium- and long-run risk of heightened political conflict. In this short essay we distinguish four major consequences of COVID-19 that may fuel social tensions and political violence, namely i) spiking poverty, ii) education under stress, iii) potential for repression, and iv) reduced inter-dependence. After discussing them in turn, we will formulate policy recommendations on how to attenuate these risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0043","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40624055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Who are the colleagues participating when asked to complete expert surveys? This research note investigates which individuals’ characteristics associate with positive responses. Drawing on an expert survey dedicated to post-conflict trials, we collect data on various attributes of both respondents and non-respondents such as their age, sex, academic positions, disciplines, and research outputs. We expect that decisions to participate result from an interplay of (1) individuals’ levels of context-specific expertise, (2) the value attached to their expert role, (3) their confidence in making authoritative statements, and (4) resource constraints. Employing logistic regression models and statistical simulations (n = 414), we find that context-specific expertise is the primary, but not the only determinant of participation. On the one hand and luckily, individuals whose research corresponds closely to the object of study are most likely to participate. On the other hand and unfortunately, individuals with high citation outputs, female experts, and Area Studies-scholars are less likely to respond. Consequently, certain groups are under-represented in expert evaluations frequently considered as authoritative source of knowledge.
{"title":"Who are Our Experts? Predictors of Participation in Expert Surveys","authors":"C. Steinert, A. Ruggeri","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Who are the colleagues participating when asked to complete expert surveys? This research note investigates which individuals’ characteristics associate with positive responses. Drawing on an expert survey dedicated to post-conflict trials, we collect data on various attributes of both respondents and non-respondents such as their age, sex, academic positions, disciplines, and research outputs. We expect that decisions to participate result from an interplay of (1) individuals’ levels of context-specific expertise, (2) the value attached to their expert role, (3) their confidence in making authoritative statements, and (4) resource constraints. Employing logistic regression models and statistical simulations (n = 414), we find that context-specific expertise is the primary, but not the only determinant of participation. On the one hand and luckily, individuals whose research corresponds closely to the object of study are most likely to participate. On the other hand and unfortunately, individuals with high citation outputs, female experts, and Area Studies-scholars are less likely to respond. Consequently, certain groups are under-represented in expert evaluations frequently considered as authoritative source of knowledge.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42826660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study analyzes the possibility that COVID-19 will increase the risk of a military conflict between the United States and People’s Republic of China. The mechanism is that COVID-19 weakens American economic output, which undermines the U.S. capability to project force. This enables China’s efforts to revise the status quo. Although a rapid collapse of American power due to COVID-19 would theoretically increase the likelihood of an armed conflict, this scenario is unlikely due to the centrality of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system. I therefore argue that COVID-19 increases the short term risk of military crises, particularly in the South China Sea and Persian Gulf, but does not significantly increase the likelihood of a power transition and full scale war. However, the long term depends on the ability of the U.S. to respond adequately to the COVID-19 crisis.
{"title":"Will COVID-19 Cause a War? Understanding the Case of the U.S. and China","authors":"Navin A. Bapat","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study analyzes the possibility that COVID-19 will increase the risk of a military conflict between the United States and People’s Republic of China. The mechanism is that COVID-19 weakens American economic output, which undermines the U.S. capability to project force. This enables China’s efforts to revise the status quo. Although a rapid collapse of American power due to COVID-19 would theoretically increase the likelihood of an armed conflict, this scenario is unlikely due to the centrality of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system. I therefore argue that COVID-19 increases the short term risk of military crises, particularly in the South China Sea and Persian Gulf, but does not significantly increase the likelihood of a power transition and full scale war. However, the long term depends on the ability of the U.S. to respond adequately to the COVID-19 crisis.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48350081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In the words of the IMF, the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have generated “a crisis like no other”. Economic shocks often result in social and political quivers within states but also affect relations between states. In the short conceptual note that follows, we concentrate on the European Union and we explore the possible effects the COVID-19 economic fallout will have on its already strained cohesion. We argue that it has the potential to act as an accelerator towards greater European integration.
{"title":"COVID-19 as a Potential Accelerator. A Euro-Centric Perspective","authors":"C. Kollias, Michel S. Zouboulakis","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0037","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the words of the IMF, the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have generated “a crisis like no other”. Economic shocks often result in social and political quivers within states but also affect relations between states. In the short conceptual note that follows, we concentrate on the European Union and we explore the possible effects the COVID-19 economic fallout will have on its already strained cohesion. We argue that it has the potential to act as an accelerator towards greater European integration.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47935956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Does status have an independent effect on how countries relate to each other? While scholars long argued that status is a salient foreign policy driver, it has been challenging to establish a causal link between status and foreign policy outcomes. In this project, I use original survey data to evaluate the effect of status on foreign policy decision-making, in particular popular support for military intervention. In an online survey experiment, 3658 United States citizens were confronted with a hypothetical foreign policy scenario in which their country’s status was threatened. The results show that the presence of a status threat increases support for military intervention, even in situations where national security interests are at stake and casualties are likely. I also find that government’s unwillingness to use force to protect the country’s status leads to decreased government approval. Overall, the results provide strong evidence that status is an important foreign policy driver and a source of domestic audience costs.
{"title":"More Valuable than Blood and Treasure? Experimental Evidence on the Impact of Status on Domestic Preferences for Military Intervention","authors":"Filip Viskupič","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Does status have an independent effect on how countries relate to each other? While scholars long argued that status is a salient foreign policy driver, it has been challenging to establish a causal link between status and foreign policy outcomes. In this project, I use original survey data to evaluate the effect of status on foreign policy decision-making, in particular popular support for military intervention. In an online survey experiment, 3658 United States citizens were confronted with a hypothetical foreign policy scenario in which their country’s status was threatened. The results show that the presence of a status threat increases support for military intervention, even in situations where national security interests are at stake and casualties are likely. I also find that government’s unwillingness to use force to protect the country’s status leads to decreased government approval. Overall, the results provide strong evidence that status is an important foreign policy driver and a source of domestic audience costs.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/peps-2020-0017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41753019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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