Abstract Transformando Mi Futuro (Transforming my Future) is a poverty reduction program implemented by the Colombian government as part of the strategy to support and repair the victims of the armed conflict. The program is based on the graduation approach that implies a comprehensive intervention in which the household receives consumption support, financial education, asset transfer, technical training, and instruction in life skills. However, unlike other graduation programs, this one targeted the urban population and did not offer direct transfers. Its primary purpose was to build capacities among those households who reported wanting to invest their legal monetary compensation as victims in productive projects. A before-after approach was employed to evaluate this program. The main results highlight positive changes in well-being and a reduction in the gap between the current perception of well-being, expectations for two and five years in the future, and positive changes in labor income and informal savings. These results suggest that the program contributed to improve the living conditions of participating households. However, a heterogeneity analysis shows that changes are differentiated according to participants’ initial labor status.
摘要Transformando Mi Futuro（Transforming my Futuro）是哥伦比亚政府实施的一项减贫计划，是支持和修复武装冲突受害者战略的一部分。该计划以毕业法为基础，意味着家庭接受消费支持、金融教育、资产转移、技术培训和生活技能指导的全面干预。然而，与其他毕业项目不同，这一项目面向城市人口，不提供直接转学服务。其主要目的是在那些报告希望将其法定货币补偿投资于生产项目的家庭中建立能力。采用前后法对该方案进行评估。主要结果强调了幸福感的积极变化，以及当前对幸福感的感知、对未来两年和五年的期望以及劳动力收入和非正规储蓄的积极变化之间的差距缩小。这些结果表明，该计划有助于改善参与家庭的生活条件。然而，异质性分析表明，变化是根据参与者的初始劳动状态来区分的。
{"title":"A Graduation Approach-Based Program for Victims of Colombia’s Armed Conflict: Lessons for Economic Inclusion","authors":"Viviana León-Jurado, Jorge H. Maldonado","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0041","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Transformando Mi Futuro (Transforming my Future) is a poverty reduction program implemented by the Colombian government as part of the strategy to support and repair the victims of the armed conflict. The program is based on the graduation approach that implies a comprehensive intervention in which the household receives consumption support, financial education, asset transfer, technical training, and instruction in life skills. However, unlike other graduation programs, this one targeted the urban population and did not offer direct transfers. Its primary purpose was to build capacities among those households who reported wanting to invest their legal monetary compensation as victims in productive projects. A before-after approach was employed to evaluate this program. The main results highlight positive changes in well-being and a reduction in the gap between the current perception of well-being, expectations for two and five years in the future, and positive changes in labor income and informal savings. These results suggest that the program contributed to improve the living conditions of participating households. However, a heterogeneity analysis shows that changes are differentiated according to participants’ initial labor status.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"28 1","pages":"129 - 154"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44621876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract To better understand the large country-level heterogeneity found with respect to post-conflict economic recovery, this paper examines the potential role and impact of UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) using a dataset which includes key information on civil conflicts and UN PKOs spanning 124 developing economies from 1990 to 2018. Analytical results provide evidence in support of PKOs’ positive impact on post-conflict economic recovery. Recovery growth (defined as a real GDP growth above peacetime growth) is found to only occur when a PKO is deployed and the relationship is stronger for, and likely driven by, the so-called transformative PKOs. Across robustness tests results imply that PKOs are, on average, associated with recovery rates of growth between 2 to 4 percentage points, and thus that peacekeeping could be an important factor in reducing and eliminating conflict-attributable macroeconomic losses. Foreign direct investments (FDI) and official development assistance (ODA) are explored as two potential channels that could help explain the growth results. While results for FDI are inconclusive, ODA results imply that there is a strong association between periods of recovery and ODA (as a percentage of GDP) when recovery periods coincide with the presence of a PKO, and again much stronger for transformative PKOs.
{"title":"Peacekeeping and Economic Recovery from Conflict","authors":"Lars Jensen","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To better understand the large country-level heterogeneity found with respect to post-conflict economic recovery, this paper examines the potential role and impact of UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) using a dataset which includes key information on civil conflicts and UN PKOs spanning 124 developing economies from 1990 to 2018. Analytical results provide evidence in support of PKOs’ positive impact on post-conflict economic recovery. Recovery growth (defined as a real GDP growth above peacetime growth) is found to only occur when a PKO is deployed and the relationship is stronger for, and likely driven by, the so-called transformative PKOs. Across robustness tests results imply that PKOs are, on average, associated with recovery rates of growth between 2 to 4 percentage points, and thus that peacekeeping could be an important factor in reducing and eliminating conflict-attributable macroeconomic losses. Foreign direct investments (FDI) and official development assistance (ODA) are explored as two potential channels that could help explain the growth results. While results for FDI are inconclusive, ODA results imply that there is a strong association between periods of recovery and ODA (as a percentage of GDP) when recovery periods coincide with the presence of a PKO, and again much stronger for transformative PKOs.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"28 1","pages":"105 - 127"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47147393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fifth Walter Isard Annual Award for the Best Article in Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","authors":"Raul Caruso","doi":"10.1515/peps-2022-9016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2022-9016","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"28 1","pages":"1 - 2"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48847833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper examines the effect of the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) shock on city shares of population applying the methodology proposed by Davis, D. R., and D. E. Weinstein. 2002. “Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity.” The American Economic Review 92 (5): 1269–89. We make use of an unexploited long-term, historical dataset of populations disaggregated at the city level. Our instruments, a key methodological issue, are based on dead and wounded data collected by historians. We show that the effect of the Spanish Civil War on capital cities was temporary, and argue that the locational fundamentals theory is the principal explanation.
{"title":"The Effect of the Spanish Civil War on City Shares","authors":"Rafael González‐Val, Javier Silvestre","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0037","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the effect of the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) shock on city shares of population applying the methodology proposed by Davis, D. R., and D. E. Weinstein. 2002. “Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity.” The American Economic Review 92 (5): 1269–89. We make use of an unexploited long-term, historical dataset of populations disaggregated at the city level. Our instruments, a key methodological issue, are based on dead and wounded data collected by historians. We show that the effect of the Spanish Civil War on capital cities was temporary, and argue that the locational fundamentals theory is the principal explanation.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"28 1","pages":"3 - 11"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43461483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper provides evidence about the relationship between economic structure and political violence in Latin American countries in the period 1990–2019. The empirical analysis suggests that manufacturing activities are negatively associated with the number of terroristic attacks. On the contrary it exists a positive relationship between mining activities and political violence. A further analysis suggests that the relative size of manufacturing with respect to mining sector is negatively associated to terroristic attacks occurrence. Such relationship becomes stronger when it is associated to high levels of trade openness.
{"title":"The Relationship Between Economic Structure and Political Violence in Latin America (1990–2019)","authors":"A. Balestra","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0043","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper provides evidence about the relationship between economic structure and political violence in Latin American countries in the period 1990–2019. The empirical analysis suggests that manufacturing activities are negatively associated with the number of terroristic attacks. On the contrary it exists a positive relationship between mining activities and political violence. A further analysis suggests that the relative size of manufacturing with respect to mining sector is negatively associated to terroristic attacks occurrence. Such relationship becomes stronger when it is associated to high levels of trade openness.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"27 1","pages":"505 - 530"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49496161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.
{"title":"Spillovers Between Russia’s and Turkey’s Geopolitical Risk During the 2000–2021 Putin Administration","authors":"Emmanouil M. L. Economou, N. Kyriazis","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"28 1","pages":"29 - 50"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45222020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Kollias, Suzanna‐Maria Paleologou, Michel S. Zouboulakis
Abstract The paper sets out to examine the military spending-public debt nexus in the case of Greece. Unlike previous studies that exclusively focus their analyses in the post-WWII period, the empirical investigation conducted herein covers almost the entire two hundred years of the modern Greek state. The estimations using an ARDL framework cover the period 1848–2018 as well as sub-periods therein. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to approach this issue in the case of Greece with such a long-term perspective. In broad terms, the findings do not unearth a statistically traceable effect of defence expenditures on public debt accumulation. The results indicate that this was very much driven by debt dynamics and the need to draw funds to service existing loans. This finding is consistent across both the entire period under scrutiny here as well as the various sub-periods.
{"title":"Defence Spending and Sovereign Debt in Greece: A Long-Term Historical Perspective","authors":"C. Kollias, Suzanna‐Maria Paleologou, Michel S. Zouboulakis","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper sets out to examine the military spending-public debt nexus in the case of Greece. Unlike previous studies that exclusively focus their analyses in the post-WWII period, the empirical investigation conducted herein covers almost the entire two hundred years of the modern Greek state. The estimations using an ARDL framework cover the period 1848–2018 as well as sub-periods therein. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to approach this issue in the case of Greece with such a long-term perspective. In broad terms, the findings do not unearth a statistically traceable effect of defence expenditures on public debt accumulation. The results indicate that this was very much driven by debt dynamics and the need to draw funds to service existing loans. This finding is consistent across both the entire period under scrutiny here as well as the various sub-periods.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"27 1","pages":"531 - 548"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49359721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Compulsory military service, due to its timing in the lives of men (at a young age, which is the key period for increasing human capital) and its length (in many cases, about a year and a half to two years), implies a significant cost (explicit or implicit) for them. Individual costs incurred as a result of compulsory military service is an important aspect to consider when measuring the economic and social costs of enforcing conscription. Compulsory military service has been a part of Iranian government policy since 1925. Accordingly, an attempt to estimate the cost for men in Iran is the main subject of this paper. We will estimate the willingness of men to pay for exemption from compulsory military service based on the dichotomous choice contingent valuation model (One-and-One-Half Bounded approach). The mean of willingness to pay is estimated at 1.61 billion Rials (38,000 USD) while the median of willingness to pay is 1.64 billion Rials. A calculation of the median of willingness to pay for sub-groups of respondents shows that individuals with an income of more than 70 million Rials (1670 USD) per month have the highest median of willingness to pay, followed by those with a Ph.D. degree, and finally, undergraduates are individuals with the lowest median of willingness to pay.
{"title":"How Much are Iranian Men Willing to Pay for Exemption from Military Service?","authors":"M. Fatemi, M. Mehrara, Ali Taiebnia","doi":"10.1515/peps-2021-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Compulsory military service, due to its timing in the lives of men (at a young age, which is the key period for increasing human capital) and its length (in many cases, about a year and a half to two years), implies a significant cost (explicit or implicit) for them. Individual costs incurred as a result of compulsory military service is an important aspect to consider when measuring the economic and social costs of enforcing conscription. Compulsory military service has been a part of Iranian government policy since 1925. Accordingly, an attempt to estimate the cost for men in Iran is the main subject of this paper. We will estimate the willingness of men to pay for exemption from compulsory military service based on the dichotomous choice contingent valuation model (One-and-One-Half Bounded approach). The mean of willingness to pay is estimated at 1.61 billion Rials (38,000 USD) while the median of willingness to pay is 1.64 billion Rials. A calculation of the median of willingness to pay for sub-groups of respondents shows that individuals with an income of more than 70 million Rials (1670 USD) per month have the highest median of willingness to pay, followed by those with a Ph.D. degree, and finally, undergraduates are individuals with the lowest median of willingness to pay.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"28 1","pages":"13 - 27"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47409079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We explore the relationship between Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) carrier freight rates and global geopolitical risk, while also controlling for the macro environment. Our results show that a shock in geopolitical risk significantly increases the cost of the spot charter rates for both LNG and LPG carriers, with the impact reaching around 25% for the former and 18% for the latter. Our results bear significant implications for both the companies and the countries involved in the liquefied gas trade, with its importance growing as the use of this energy source is likely to continue substituting other fossil fuels in the future.
{"title":"Geopolitical Risk and the LNG-LPG Trade","authors":"Nektarios A. Michail, Konstantinos D. Melas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3933751","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3933751","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We explore the relationship between Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) carrier freight rates and global geopolitical risk, while also controlling for the macro environment. Our results show that a shock in geopolitical risk significantly increases the cost of the spot charter rates for both LNG and LPG carriers, with the impact reaching around 25% for the former and 18% for the latter. Our results bear significant implications for both the companies and the countries involved in the liquefied gas trade, with its importance growing as the use of this energy source is likely to continue substituting other fossil fuels in the future.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"28 1","pages":"243 - 265"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41956374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper analyses the effects of trade sanctions between Russia and Western countries on Kazakhstan. The nature of these sanctions is characterized by unilateral sanctions from Russia and multilateral sanctions against Russia. Although Kazakhstan refused to participate in these sanction wars, this might affect its economy significantly as it is highly integrated into the Russian economy. An empirical analysis is performed on the product level and time series techniques are used to estimate the effects of the sanctions. The paper assesses the overall effectiveness of trade sanctions through aggregating product level results into a sanction index. The derived sanction index shows that multilateral sanctions did not divert the trade flows from Western countries. On the other hand, the index indicates the existence of sanction busting activities against Russian unilateral counter-sanctions, confirming the hypothesis that unilateral sanctions are ineffective and allow for third-country effects.
{"title":"Trade Sanctions and Customs Union Partners of the Target Country: Evidence from Kazakhstan","authors":"A. Aituar","doi":"10.1515/peps-2020-0044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0044","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyses the effects of trade sanctions between Russia and Western countries on Kazakhstan. The nature of these sanctions is characterized by unilateral sanctions from Russia and multilateral sanctions against Russia. Although Kazakhstan refused to participate in these sanction wars, this might affect its economy significantly as it is highly integrated into the Russian economy. An empirical analysis is performed on the product level and time series techniques are used to estimate the effects of the sanctions. The paper assesses the overall effectiveness of trade sanctions through aggregating product level results into a sanction index. The derived sanction index shows that multilateral sanctions did not divert the trade flows from Western countries. On the other hand, the index indicates the existence of sanction busting activities against Russian unilateral counter-sanctions, confirming the hypothesis that unilateral sanctions are ineffective and allow for third-country effects.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"27 1","pages":"549 - 566"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41702311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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