Abstract This study utilizes a rolling window Granger test to investigate how global geopolitical tension affects returns in China’s defence sector. The results reveal a highly dynamic and nonlinear relationship between geopolitical risk and the industry’s stock market performance. Notably, our findings suggest that geopolitical risk has recently become a significant predictor of the market return of the defence sector. These results contribute to the existing literature on the impact of geopolitical uncertainties on China’s financial markets and offer new insights into the relationship between international security and the stock market performance of defence contractors. We discuss the implications of this research at the end.
{"title":"Does Geopolitical Risk Influence China’s Defence Sector Returns?","authors":"Yu Wang, Yun Liu","doi":"10.1515/peps-2023-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2023-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study utilizes a rolling window Granger test to investigate how global geopolitical tension affects returns in China’s defence sector. The results reveal a highly dynamic and nonlinear relationship between geopolitical risk and the industry’s stock market performance. Notably, our findings suggest that geopolitical risk has recently become a significant predictor of the market return of the defence sector. These results contribute to the existing literature on the impact of geopolitical uncertainties on China’s financial markets and offer new insights into the relationship between international security and the stock market performance of defence contractors. We discuss the implications of this research at the end.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47828566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Institutional trust is trust in state’s institutions and organizations. Institutional trust also involves trust towards international and intergovernmental organizations such as the UN, the EU and NATO. Institutional trust includes citizens’ trust towards the national security apparatus or security providing organizations such as NATO. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is a major event with wide-ranging momentous political, economic and strategic ramifications. The latter affect European states’ security and defence. Such important events impact citizens’ risk-perceptions (in)security sentiments and hence their trust towards institutions assigned with the task of providing security. The paper examines how the Russian invasion has affected European citizens’ trust towards NATO. To probe into the issue, it uses data from two Eurobarometer surveys. A survey that took place just before the invasion in January and February 2022 and a survey that took place in June and July. A similar to regression discontinuity empirical setup is adopted to examine how European citizens’ trust towards NATO was impacted by the invasion. The empirical findings reported herein are not uniform across all EU member-countries and indicate noteworthy differences on trust towards NATO as a result of the Russian invasion. Nonetheless, on balance, a statistically significant effect is traced by the estimated regressions.
{"title":"In NATO We Trust(?): The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and EU27 Citizens’ Trust in NATO","authors":"Athina Economou, C. Kollias","doi":"10.1515/peps-2023-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2023-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Institutional trust is trust in state’s institutions and organizations. Institutional trust also involves trust towards international and intergovernmental organizations such as the UN, the EU and NATO. Institutional trust includes citizens’ trust towards the national security apparatus or security providing organizations such as NATO. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is a major event with wide-ranging momentous political, economic and strategic ramifications. The latter affect European states’ security and defence. Such important events impact citizens’ risk-perceptions (in)security sentiments and hence their trust towards institutions assigned with the task of providing security. The paper examines how the Russian invasion has affected European citizens’ trust towards NATO. To probe into the issue, it uses data from two Eurobarometer surveys. A survey that took place just before the invasion in January and February 2022 and a survey that took place in June and July. A similar to regression discontinuity empirical setup is adopted to examine how European citizens’ trust towards NATO was impacted by the invasion. The empirical findings reported herein are not uniform across all EU member-countries and indicate noteworthy differences on trust towards NATO as a result of the Russian invasion. Nonetheless, on balance, a statistically significant effect is traced by the estimated regressions.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46753877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-01DOI: 10.1515/peps-2023-frontmatter2
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/peps-2023-frontmatter2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2023-frontmatter2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135382304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Violent conflict is a global phenomenon with devastating costs to individuals and their communities. Government experts and policymakers have responded with efforts to reduce violence and make peace. Such efforts are often implemented from the top-down, however, and are consequently limited in their peacemaking capacities. Top-down peacemaking is limited because it is typically done by community outsiders who simply lack the knowledge and capabilities to systematically plan and make peace in diverse societies throughout the world. We discuss a bottom-up alternative to peacemaking grounded in entrepreneurship. We argue that entrepreneurs make peace by (a) offering individuals a peaceful means to acquire the things they desire, (b) establishing commercial links across (social and geographic) distances, and, in so doing, (c) helping to cultivate habits of peacefulness.
{"title":"Entrepreneurial Pathways to Peacemaking","authors":"Christopher J. Coyne, Michael Romero, V. Storr","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4346460","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4346460","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Violent conflict is a global phenomenon with devastating costs to individuals and their communities. Government experts and policymakers have responded with efforts to reduce violence and make peace. Such efforts are often implemented from the top-down, however, and are consequently limited in their peacemaking capacities. Top-down peacemaking is limited because it is typically done by community outsiders who simply lack the knowledge and capabilities to systematically plan and make peace in diverse societies throughout the world. We discuss a bottom-up alternative to peacemaking grounded in entrepreneurship. We argue that entrepreneurs make peace by (a) offering individuals a peaceful means to acquire the things they desire, (b) establishing commercial links across (social and geographic) distances, and, in so doing, (c) helping to cultivate habits of peacefulness.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42648751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"6th Walter Isard Annual Award for the Best Article in Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","authors":"Raul Caruso","doi":"10.1515/peps-2023-0031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2023-0031","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41716792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The fundamental aim of this paper is to test the symmetric and asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on the five selected prices of energy commodities, consisting of coal, crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas, during the period 2 January 2020–29 July 2022 by application of linear and nonlinear ARDL models. Moreover, we also study the impact of anticipated financial volatility on energy commodities. Our results suggest that, over the long term, there is no linear relationship between geopolitical risk, financial volatility, and energy prices. On the other hand, we find statistically significant asymmetrical effects of geopolitical risk and financial volatility on crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil prices in the long and short run. We also identify that coal and natural gas prices do not respond to changes in geopolitical risk during the analysed period.
{"title":"Geopolitical Risk and Energy Market","authors":"Kristina Hudecova, M. Rajcaniova","doi":"10.1515/peps-2022-0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2022-0033","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The fundamental aim of this paper is to test the symmetric and asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on the five selected prices of energy commodities, consisting of coal, crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas, during the period 2 January 2020–29 July 2022 by application of linear and nonlinear ARDL models. Moreover, we also study the impact of anticipated financial volatility on energy commodities. Our results suggest that, over the long term, there is no linear relationship between geopolitical risk, financial volatility, and energy prices. On the other hand, we find statistically significant asymmetrical effects of geopolitical risk and financial volatility on crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil prices in the long and short run. We also identify that coal and natural gas prices do not respond to changes in geopolitical risk during the analysed period.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46243181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In recent years, there have been growing concerns around the implications of large fiscal imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries (SSA). An ongoing debate focuses, among other things, on the determinants of public debt in the sub-region. Much of the recent work has, however, employed descriptive methods in quantifying the extent of the debt problem and in explaining the drivers thereof. Moreover, most studies only consider macroeconomic factors. Instead of focusing only on macroeconomic factors, this study considers the influence of conflict and governance as important drivers of public debt in SSA countries given that most of them have experienced (or are still experiencing) conflict and poor governance. Focusing on a sample of 38 SSA countries over the period 1996–2019, it employs a variety of panel methods, namely, the pooled OLS, one- and two-way fixed effects, and instrumental variables fixed effects to facilitate the comparison of results. The study finds compelling evidence showing that conflict and governance are important determinants of SSA’s public debt in addition to the economic factors. Policy recommendations based on the findings are discussed.
{"title":"Determinants of Government Debt in Sub-Saharan African Countries: The Role of Conflict, Governance, and Economic Factors","authors":"Eftychia Nikolaidou, Princewill U. Okwoche","doi":"10.1515/peps-2022-0038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2022-0038","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In recent years, there have been growing concerns around the implications of large fiscal imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries (SSA). An ongoing debate focuses, among other things, on the determinants of public debt in the sub-region. Much of the recent work has, however, employed descriptive methods in quantifying the extent of the debt problem and in explaining the drivers thereof. Moreover, most studies only consider macroeconomic factors. Instead of focusing only on macroeconomic factors, this study considers the influence of conflict and governance as important drivers of public debt in SSA countries given that most of them have experienced (or are still experiencing) conflict and poor governance. Focusing on a sample of 38 SSA countries over the period 1996–2019, it employs a variety of panel methods, namely, the pooled OLS, one- and two-way fixed effects, and instrumental variables fixed effects to facilitate the comparison of results. The study finds compelling evidence showing that conflict and governance are important determinants of SSA’s public debt in addition to the economic factors. Policy recommendations based on the findings are discussed.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48624554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The COVID 19 pandemic has generated much interest in the relationship between research and policy. It has drawn new attention to the limitations of a linear model, where policy is based on first observing prior scientific research and then designed in response to this. Conflict researchers often motivate the importance of their work by claiming that their “research has important policy implications”, but the proposals offered are often at best incomplete. I identify a number of common limitations in claims about policy implications, including a lack of discussion of objectives and priorities, stating objectives themselves as if they were policies, claims about targeting factors without discussing the effectiveness of possible interventions, and a failure to consider uncertainty and potential tensions with other objectives or unintended effects. Research can potentially inform policy discussions and improve decisions, but the incentives in academic research are very different from policy decisions, and the latter often calls for very different evidence than what is offered by the former. Rather than attempting to offer policy prescriptions as an afterthought to academic articles, research can be more helpful to policy by trying to inform debates, focusing on what we know from the cumulative body of research than individual manuscripts, and providing new data and empirical material that allow for better problem description and analysis.
{"title":"“This Research has Important Policy Implications…”","authors":"K. Gleditsch","doi":"10.1515/peps-2023-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2023-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The COVID 19 pandemic has generated much interest in the relationship between research and policy. It has drawn new attention to the limitations of a linear model, where policy is based on first observing prior scientific research and then designed in response to this. Conflict researchers often motivate the importance of their work by claiming that their “research has important policy implications”, but the proposals offered are often at best incomplete. I identify a number of common limitations in claims about policy implications, including a lack of discussion of objectives and priorities, stating objectives themselves as if they were policies, claims about targeting factors without discussing the effectiveness of possible interventions, and a failure to consider uncertainty and potential tensions with other objectives or unintended effects. Research can potentially inform policy discussions and improve decisions, but the incentives in academic research are very different from policy decisions, and the latter often calls for very different evidence than what is offered by the former. Rather than attempting to offer policy prescriptions as an afterthought to academic articles, research can be more helpful to policy by trying to inform debates, focusing on what we know from the cumulative body of research than individual manuscripts, and providing new data and empirical material that allow for better problem description and analysis.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49097253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The current study examines the United Nations Good Offices and their ability to enhance stability and peace in Yemen where political and socioeconomic strife is existing. It highlights the constant efforts done by the United Nations for achieving peace since the outbreak of the Youth Revolution (Arabic spring) in 2011 and how these efforts attempt to stop the war and fulfill peace in the context of the Yemeni conflict. This study adopts both exploratory and empirical methods to shed light on the roles of the good offices of the UN for conflict resolution in Yemen, testing the multiple regressions between the good offices and resolving conflict in Yemen, as well as, analyzing why these efforts have failed to overcome this chaos. The study shows the positive impact of the good offices on stopping war and controlling conflict in Yemen through the UNSC resolutions which have a high influence among other efforts. Therefore, it is discovered in this article that the UN Good Offices have failed to accomplish their primary objectives of attaining peace and ending the continuous war because of some obstruction within the UN itself.
{"title":"Assessment of the United Nations Good Offices for Conflict Resolution in Yemen","authors":"Adeb Abdulelah Abdulwahid Al-Tamimi, Uddagatti Venkatesha","doi":"10.1515/peps-2022-0031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2022-0031","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The current study examines the United Nations Good Offices and their ability to enhance stability and peace in Yemen where political and socioeconomic strife is existing. It highlights the constant efforts done by the United Nations for achieving peace since the outbreak of the Youth Revolution (Arabic spring) in 2011 and how these efforts attempt to stop the war and fulfill peace in the context of the Yemeni conflict. This study adopts both exploratory and empirical methods to shed light on the roles of the good offices of the UN for conflict resolution in Yemen, testing the multiple regressions between the good offices and resolving conflict in Yemen, as well as, analyzing why these efforts have failed to overcome this chaos. The study shows the positive impact of the good offices on stopping war and controlling conflict in Yemen through the UNSC resolutions which have a high influence among other efforts. Therefore, it is discovered in this article that the UN Good Offices have failed to accomplish their primary objectives of attaining peace and ending the continuous war because of some obstruction within the UN itself.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45630510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Dada, E. O. Awoleye, M. Arnaut, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan
Abstract The purpose of this study is to examine the moderating role and threshold level of institutional quality in the nexus between military expenditure and economic growth for a panel of 31 African nations. The results reveal that military expenditure negatively influences growth, while institutional quality positively affects growth. The interactive term of institutional quality and military expenditure significantly positively influence economic growth. However, the threshold level of institutional quality for military expenditure to translate into economic growth in the region is found to be 4.61 on an ordinary scale of 0–10, although most countries operate below the threshold point of institutional quality. The study concludes that strong institutional quality serves as important absorptive capacity for military expenditure to drive economic growth in the region.
{"title":"Revisiting the Military Expenditure-Growth Nexus: Does Institutional Quality Moderate the Effect?","authors":"J. Dada, E. O. Awoleye, M. Arnaut, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan","doi":"10.1515/peps-2022-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2022-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The purpose of this study is to examine the moderating role and threshold level of institutional quality in the nexus between military expenditure and economic growth for a panel of 31 African nations. The results reveal that military expenditure negatively influences growth, while institutional quality positively affects growth. The interactive term of institutional quality and military expenditure significantly positively influence economic growth. However, the threshold level of institutional quality for military expenditure to translate into economic growth in the region is found to be 4.61 on an ordinary scale of 0–10, although most countries operate below the threshold point of institutional quality. The study concludes that strong institutional quality serves as important absorptive capacity for military expenditure to drive economic growth in the region.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45539967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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