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Variation of quantified infection rates of mixed samples to enhance rapid testing during an epidemic. 流行病期间混合样本的定量感染率变化以加强快速检测。
IF 1.8 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-09-13 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1817801
Usama Kadri
ABSTRACT Rapid testing of appropriate samples from patients suspected for a disease during an epidemic, such as the current Coronavirus outbreak, is of a great importance for disease management and control. We propose a method to enhance processing large amounts of collected samples. The method is based on mixing samples in testing tubes (pooling) in a specific configuration, as opposed to testing single samples in each tube, and recognise infected samples from variations of the total infection rates in each tube. To illustrate the efficiency of the suggested method, we carry out numerical tests for actual scenarios under various test conditions. Applying the proposed method allows testing many more patients using the same number of testing tubes, where all positives are identified with no false negatives, and no need for independent testing, and the effective testing time can be reduced drastically even when the uncertainty in the test is relatively high.
在疫情期间(如当前的冠状病毒疫情),对疑似疾病患者的适当样本进行快速检测,对于疾病管理和控制具有重要意义。我们提出了一种方法,以提高处理大量收集的样品。该方法基于在特定配置的试管中混合样本(池化),而不是在每个试管中测试单个样本,并从每个试管中总感染率的变化中识别受感染样本。为了说明所提方法的有效性,我们在各种测试条件下对实际场景进行了数值测试。应用所提出的方法可以使用相同数量的试管检测更多的患者,其中所有阳性都被识别,没有假阴性,不需要独立检测,并且即使在检测的不确定性相对较高时,有效检测时间也可以大大缩短。
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引用次数: 3
Identifying user assistance systems for radiotherapy to increase efficiency and help saving lives. 确定用于放射治疗的用户辅助系统,以提高效率,帮助挽救生命。
IF 1.2 Q4 HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES Pub Date : 2020-08-30 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1803148
Ralf Müller-Polyzou, Melanie Reuter-Oppermann, Anke Engbert, Raphael Schmidt

Increasing efficiency and reducing risk in radiotherapy cancer treatment is of high importance. User assistance systems within a digitally connected radiotherapy environment can support all involved professionals to perform their individual tasks faster and better. This paper presents a qualitative analysis of radiotherapy workflows and a corresponding process modelling in order to identify hypothetical user assistance systems for specific process activities. In addition, the results of an empirical study on the identified systems are presented together with derived requirements and design principles for these systems. A structured online survey with 50 medical physicists in Germany has been conducted. Among others the acceptance, the increase of perceived efficiency and the risk reduction while using the assistance systems are analysed and discussed. The results support the creation of value adding user assistance systems for radiotherapy that improve efficiency, reduce treatment risks and reach high user acceptance levels.

提高癌症放射治疗的效率和降低风险至关重要。在数字化连接的放射治疗环境中,用户辅助系统可以支持所有相关专业人员更快更好地完成各自的任务。本文对放射治疗工作流程进行了定性分析,并建立了相应的流程模型,以便为特定流程活动确定假设的用户辅助系统。此外,还介绍了对所确定系统的实证研究结果,以及这些系统的衍生需求和设计原则。对德国 50 名医学物理学家进行了结构化在线调查。除其他外,还分析和讨论了使用辅助系统时的接受程度、感知效率的提高和风险的降低。调查结果表明,为提高效率、降低治疗风险和达到较高的用户接受度,可创建具有附加值的放射治疗用户辅助系统。
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引用次数: 0
Constructing operating theatre schedules using partitioned graph colouring techniques. 使用分割图形着色技术构建手术室时间表。
IF 1.8 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-07-27 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1796530
Ahmed Kheiri, Rhyd Lewis, Jonathan Thompson, Paul Harper

In hospitals, scheduled operations can often be cancelled in large numbers due to the unavailability of beds for post-operation recovery. Operating theatre scheduling is known to be an N P -hard optimisation problem. Previous studies have shown that the correct scheduling of surgical procedures can have a positive impact on the availability of beds in hospital wards, thereby allowing a reduction in number of elective operation cancellations. This study proposes an exact technique based on the partitioned graph colouring problem for constructing optimal master surgery schedules, with the goal of minimising the number of cancellations. The resultant schedules are then simulated in order to measure how well they cope with the stochastic nature of patient arrivals. Our results show that the utilisation of post-operative beds can be increased, whilst the number of cancellations can be decreased, which may ultimately lead to greater patient throughput and reduced waiting times. A scenario-based model has also been employed to integrate the stochastic-nature associated with the bed requirements into the optimisation process. The results indicate that the proposed model can lead to more robust solutions.

在医院,由于没有床位供术后恢复使用,通常会大量取消预定的手术。手术室调度是一个np -hard优化问题。先前的研究表明,正确安排外科手术可以对医院病房的床位可用性产生积极影响,从而减少取消选择性手术的数量。本研究提出了一种基于分割图着色问题的精确技术,用于构造最优主手术计划,目标是最小化取消次数。然后模拟生成的时间表,以衡量它们如何处理患者到达的随机性。我们的研究结果表明,术后床位的利用率可以增加,而取消的数量可以减少,这可能最终导致更大的病人吞吐量和减少等待时间。基于场景的模型也被用于将与床需求相关的随机性集成到优化过程中。结果表明,所提出的模型可以得到更鲁棒的解。
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引用次数: 7
An empirical investigation of forecasting methods for ambulance calls - a case study. 救护车呼叫预测方法的实证研究-个案研究。
IF 1.8 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-06-25 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1783190
Mohamed A K Al-Azzani, Soheil Davari, Tracey Jane England

A primary goal of emergency services is to minimise the response times to emergencies whilst managing operational costs. This paper is motivated by real data from the Welsh Ambulance Service which in recent years has been criticised for not meeting its eight-minute response target. In this study, four forecasting approaches (ARIMA, Holt Winters, Multiple Regression and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)) are considered to investigate whether they can provide more accurate predictions to the call volume demand (total and by category) than the current approach on a selection of planning horizons (weekly, monthly and 3-monthly). Each method is applied to a training and test set and root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) error statistics are determined. Results showed that ARIMA is the best forecasting method for weekly and monthly prediction of demand and the long-term demand is best predicted using the SSA method.

紧急服务的主要目标是在管理业务成本的同时尽量缩短对紧急情况的反应时间。这篇论文的动机是来自威尔士救护车服务的真实数据,近年来一直批评没有达到其8分钟的反应目标。在本研究中,考虑了四种预测方法(ARIMA, Holt Winters,多元回归和奇异谱分析(SSA)),以调查他们是否可以提供更准确的预测呼叫量需求(总和按类别)比目前的方法在选择的规划视野(每周,每月和3个月)。每种方法应用于一个训练集和测试集,并确定均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)误差统计量。结果表明,ARIMA方法对周、月需求预测效果最好,SSA方法对长期需求预测效果最好。
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引用次数: 8
Alternative care providers in rheumatoid arthritis patient care: a queueing and simulation analysis. 在类风湿关节炎患者护理替代护理提供者:排队和模拟分析。
IF 1.8 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-06-14 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1771619
Toni Tagimacruz, Diane P Bischak, Deborah A Marshall

Patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis require lifelong monitoring by a rheumatologist. Initiation of the disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug therapy within twelve weeks of the onset of symptoms is crucial to prevent joint damage and functional disability. We examine the impact of the engagement of alternate care providers (ACP) in alleviating delay due to limited rheumatologist capacity. Using queueing theory and discrete-event simulation, we model rheumatologist-only and rheumatologist-with-ACP system configurations as closed, multi-class queueing networks with class switching.Using summary data from an actual rheumatology clinic for illustration, we analyze various parameter conditions to aid clinic managers and policymakers in decisions concerning capacity allocations and feasible patient panel size that impact timeliness of care and resource utilization.Results not only confirm that a substantial increase in RA patient panel size with an ACP involved in the care of follow-up patients but also demonstrates the boundaries for feasible panel sizes and workload allocation.

被诊断为类风湿关节炎的患者需要风湿病学家终生监测。在症状出现后12周内开始抗风湿药物治疗对预防关节损伤和功能残疾至关重要。我们研究了替代护理提供者(ACP)的参与对减轻由于风湿病学家能力有限而造成的延误的影响。利用排队理论和离散事件仿真,我们将风湿病学家和风湿病学家与acp系统配置建模为封闭的、具有类交换的多类排队网络。我们利用一家风湿病诊所的汇总数据为例,分析了各种参数条件,以帮助诊所管理者和决策者做出有关影响护理及时性和资源利用的能力分配和可行的患者小组规模的决策。结果不仅证实了ACP参与随访患者的RA患者小组规模的大幅增加,而且还证明了可行小组规模和工作量分配的界限。
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引用次数: 1
Organisational factors underpinning intra-hospital transfers: a guide for evaluating context in quality improvement. 支持医院内转诊的组织因素:质量改进环境评价指南。
IF 1.8 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-05-27 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1768807
Renee Fekieta, Alana Rosenberg, Beth Hodshon, Shelli Feder, Sarwat I Chaudhry, Beth L Emerson

During intra-hospital transfers, multiple clinicians perform coordinated tasks that leave patients vulnerable to undesirable outcomes. Communication has been established as a challenge to care transitions, but less is known about the organisational complexities within which transfers take place. We performed a qualitative assessment that included various professions to capture a multi-faceted understanding of intra-hospital transfers. Ethnographic observations and semi-structured interviews were conducted with clinicians and staff from the Medical Intensive Care Unit, Emergency Department, and general medicine units at a large, urban, academic, tertiary medical centre. Results highlight the organisational factors that stakeholders view as important for successful transfers: the development, dissemination, and application of protocols; robustness of technology; degree of teamwork; hospital capacity; and the ways in which competing hospital priorities are managed. These factors broaden our understanding of the organisational context of intra-hospital transfers and informed the development of a practical guide that can be used prior to embarking on quality improvement efforts around transitions of care.

在医院内转院期间,多名临床医生执行协调的任务,使患者容易受到不良后果的影响。沟通已被确立为护理转移的挑战,但对转移发生的组织复杂性知之甚少。我们进行了一项定性评估,包括不同的专业,以获得对院内转院的多方面理解。在一个大型的城市三级学术医疗中心,对来自医疗重症监护室、急诊科和普通医学单位的临床医生和工作人员进行了人种学观察和半结构化访谈。结果突出了利益相关者认为对成功转移至关重要的组织因素:协议的制定、传播和应用;技术的稳健性;团队合作程度;医院的能力;以及医院优先级竞争的管理方式。这些因素拓宽了我们对院内转院的组织背景的理解,并为制定实用指南提供了依据,该指南可在围绕转院开展质量改进工作之前使用。
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引用次数: 3
Priority setting for health system strengthening in low income countries. A qualitative case study illustrating the complexities. 确定加强低收入国家卫生系统的重点。说明复杂性的定性案例研究。
IF 1.8 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-05-18 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1758596
Beverley M Essue, Lydia Kapiriri

Health systems are critical to the realisation of Universal Health Coverage. There has been insufficient attention to the evaluation of priority setting for health system strengthening within low income countries, including evaluation of the local capacity to implement priorities. This study evaluated the extent to which health system strengthening was prioritized in Uganda. The Kapiriri & Martin framework was used to evaluate health system priority setting from 2005-2015. A document analysis was triangulated with interview data (n = 67) from global, national and subnational stakeholders and analysed using content analysis. Health system strengthening was perceived to be circumvented by a lack of resources as well as influential actors with disease focused, rather than system-oriented, interests. There were defined processes with explicit criteria for identifying priorities and evidence was highly valued. But sub-optimal transparency and weak accountability often compromised the integrity of priority setting and contributed to stalling progress on health system strengthening and achieving health system outcomes. The strengths in the current planning processes should be harnessed. In addition, a systematic approach to priority setting, potentially through the establishment of an independent body, and stronger oversight mechanisms, would strengthen health system planning in this setting.

卫生系统对实现全民健康覆盖至关重要。对低收入国家内确定加强卫生系统的优先事项的评价,包括对当地执行优先事项的能力的评价,没有给予足够的重视。本研究评估了乌干达加强卫生系统的优先程度。Kapiriri & Martin框架用于评估2005-2015年卫生系统优先事项的设定。文件分析与来自全球、国家和国家以下利益相关者的访谈数据(n = 67)进行三角测量,并使用内容分析进行分析。人们认为,由于缺乏资源以及关注疾病而不是关注系统的有影响力的行为者,加强卫生系统的工作受到了阻碍。有明确的程序和确定优先事项的明确标准,证据受到高度重视。但不够理想的透明度和薄弱的问责制往往损害了优先事项确定的完整性,并阻碍了在加强卫生系统和实现卫生系统成果方面取得进展。应利用当前规划过程中的优势。此外,系统地确定优先事项,可能通过建立一个独立机构和更强有力的监督机制,将加强这种情况下的卫生系统规划。
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引用次数: 3
The importance of widespread testing for COVID-19 pandemic: systems thinking for drive-through testing sites. COVID-19大流行广泛检测的重要性:免下车检测点的系统思考
IF 1.8 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-04-26 eCollection Date: 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1758000
Ozgur M Araz, Adrian Ramirez-Nafarrate, Megan Jehn, Fernando A Wilson

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Early epidemiological estimates show that COVID-19 is highly transmissible, infecting populations across the globe in a short amount of time. WHO has recommended widespread clinical testing in order to contain COVID-19. However, mass testing in emergency department (ED) settings may result in crowded EDs and increase transmission risk for healthcare staff and other ED patients. Drive-through COVID-19 testing sites are an effective solution to quickly collect samples from suspected cases with minimal risk to healthcare personnel and other patients. Nevertheless, there are many logistical and operational challenges, such as shortages of testing kits, limited numbers of healthcare staff and long delays for collecting samples. Solving these problems requires an understanding of disease dynamics and epidemiology, as well as the logistics of mass distribution. In this position paper, we provide a conceptual framework for addressing these challenges, as well as some insights from prior literature and experience on developing decision support tools for public health departments.

2020年3月11日,世界卫生组织(世卫组织)宣布COVID-19为大流行。早期流行病学估计表明,COVID-19具有高度传染性,可在短时间内感染全球人群。世卫组织建议进行广泛的临床检测,以遏制COVID-19。然而,在急诊科(ED)环境中进行大规模检测可能导致急诊科拥挤,并增加医护人员和其他急诊科患者的传播风险。免下车COVID-19检测点是快速收集疑似病例样本的有效解决方案,对医护人员和其他患者的风险最小。尽管如此,仍存在许多后勤和操作方面的挑战,例如检测试剂盒短缺、医疗保健人员数量有限以及采集样本的时间长。解决这些问题需要了解疾病动力学和流行病学,以及大规模分布的后勤。在本立场文件中,我们为解决这些挑战提供了一个概念性框架,以及从先前的文献和为公共卫生部门开发决策支持工具的经验中获得的一些见解。
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引用次数: 42
Operational analysis of school-based delivery models to vaccinate children against influenza. 以学校为本为儿童接种流感疫苗模式的运作分析。
IF 1.8 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-04-22 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1754733
Luca Grieco, Mariya Melnychuk, Angus Ramsay, Abigail Baim-Lance, Simon Turner, Andrew Wilshere, Naomi Fulop, Steve Morris, Martin Utley

Large-scale immunisation programmes against seasonal influenza are characterised by logistical challenges related to the need for vaccinating large cohorts of people in a short amount of time. Careful operational planning of resources is essential for a successful implementation of such programmes. We focused on the process of child vaccination in schools and analysed the staffing and workflow aspects of a school-aged children vaccination programme in England. Our objectives were to document vaccination processes and analyse times and costs associated with different models deployed across England. We collected data through direct non-participatory observations. Statistical data analysis enabled us to identify potential factors influencing vaccine delivery time and informed the development of a tool to simulate vaccination sessions. Using this tool, we carried out scenario analyses and explored trade-offs between session times and costs in different settings. Our work ultimately supported the local implementation of school-based vaccination.

针对季节性流感的大规模免疫规划的特点是后勤方面的挑战,这与需要在短时间内为大量人群接种疫苗有关。对资源进行仔细的业务规划对于成功地执行这些方案至关重要。我们关注的是学校儿童疫苗接种的过程,并分析了英格兰学龄儿童疫苗接种计划的人员配备和工作流程方面。我们的目标是记录疫苗接种过程,并分析与英格兰各地部署的不同模型相关的时间和成本。我们通过直接非参与性观察收集数据。统计数据分析使我们能够确定影响疫苗交付时间的潜在因素,并为开发模拟疫苗接种过程的工具提供了信息。使用此工具,我们进行了场景分析,并探索了不同设置下会话时间和成本之间的权衡。我们的工作最终支持了当地实施以学校为基础的疫苗接种。
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引用次数: 2
An analytical framework for group simulation model building. 群体仿真模型构建的分析框架。
IF 1.8 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-04-09 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1740613
Timothy Bolt, Steffen Bayer, Maria Kapsali, Sally Brailsford

This paper presents a framework for understanding and improving the process of simulation model building involving a group of domain experts, classifying the different roles the model may play at various stages of its development. The framework consists of four different "object roles", defined along two dimensions: a functional dimension (boundary object vs. representational object) and a knowledge dimension (epistemic object vs. technical object). A model can take different roles during the development process, e.g. for facilitating communication, for gaining insight into the real-world system, or for experimentation and policy evaluation. The use of the framework is illustrated by two case studies in healthcare. Its relevance and applicability are examined through a survey on model use. The survey was conducted among a group of modelling consultants with experience of using both discrete-event simulation and system dynamics within the NHS, and indicated the potential usefulness of the framework.

本文提出了一个框架,用于理解和改进由领域专家组成的仿真模型构建过程,并对模型在其发展的不同阶段可能扮演的不同角色进行了分类。该框架由四个不同的“对象角色”组成,沿两个维度定义:功能维度(边界对象vs表征对象)和知识维度(认知对象vs技术对象)。在开发过程中,模型可以扮演不同的角色,例如,促进交流,获得对现实世界系统的洞察,或者用于实验和策略评估。医疗保健领域的两个案例研究说明了该框架的使用。通过对模型使用情况的调查,检验了其相关性和适用性。该调查是在一组具有在NHS内使用离散事件模拟和系统动力学经验的建模顾问中进行的,并指出了该框架的潜在有用性。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Health Systems
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