Pub Date : 2020-12-15eCollection Date: 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1857663
Guillaume Lamé, Sonya Crowe, Matthew Barclay
Despite an increasing number of papers reporting applications of operational research (OR) to problems in healthcare, there remains little empirical evidence of OR improving healthcare delivery in practice. Without such evidence it is harder both to justify the usefulness of OR to a healthcare audience and to learn and continuously improve our approaches. To progress, we need to build the evidence-base on whether and how OR improves healthcare delivery through careful empirical evaluation. This position paper reviews evaluation standards in healthcare improvement research and dispels some common myths about evaluation. It highlights the current lack of robust evaluation of healthcare OR and makes the case for addressing this. It then proposes possible ways for building better empirical evaluations of OR interventions in healthcare.
{"title":"\"What's the evidence?\"-Towards more empirical evaluations of the impact of OR interventions in healthcare.","authors":"Guillaume Lamé, Sonya Crowe, Matthew Barclay","doi":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1857663","DOIUrl":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1857663","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite an increasing number of papers reporting applications of operational research (OR) to problems in healthcare, there remains little empirical evidence of OR improving healthcare delivery in practice. Without such evidence it is harder both to justify the usefulness of OR to a healthcare audience and to learn and continuously improve our approaches. To progress, we need to build the evidence-base on whether and how OR improves healthcare delivery through careful empirical evaluation. This position paper reviews evaluation standards in healthcare improvement research and dispels some common myths about evaluation. It highlights the current lack of robust evaluation of healthcare OR and makes the case for addressing this. It then proposes possible ways for building better empirical evaluations of OR interventions in healthcare.</p>","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"11 1","pages":"59-67"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8812794/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39756482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-28eCollection Date: 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1848355
Mohd Shoaib, Utkarsh Prabhakar, Sumit Mahlawat, Varun Ramamohan
We present a discrete-event simulation model of the kidney transplantation system in an Indian state, Rajasthan. Organs are generated across the state based on the organ donation rate among the general population, and are allocated to patients on the kidney transplantation waitlist. The organ allocation algorithm is developed using official guidelines published for kidney transplantation, and model parameters were estimated using publicly available data to the extent possible. Transplantation outcomes generated by the model include: (a) the probabilities of a patient receiving an organ within one to 5 years of registration and (b) the average number of deaths per year due to lack of donated organs. Simulation experiments involving observing the effect of increasing the organ arrival rate and establishing additional transplantation centres on transplantation outcomes are also conducted. We also demonstrate the use of such a model to optimally locate additional transplantation centres using simulation optimisation methods.
{"title":"A discrete-event simulation model of the kidney transplantation system in Rajasthan, India.","authors":"Mohd Shoaib, Utkarsh Prabhakar, Sumit Mahlawat, Varun Ramamohan","doi":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1848355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20476965.2020.1848355","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We present a discrete-event simulation model of the kidney transplantation system in an Indian state, Rajasthan. Organs are generated across the state based on the organ donation rate among the general population, and are allocated to patients on the kidney transplantation waitlist. The organ allocation algorithm is developed using official guidelines published for kidney transplantation, and model parameters were estimated using publicly available data to the extent possible. Transplantation outcomes generated by the model include: (a) the probabilities of a patient receiving an organ within one to 5 years of registration and (b) the average number of deaths per year due to lack of donated organs. Simulation experiments involving observing the effect of increasing the organ arrival rate and establishing additional transplantation centres on transplantation outcomes are also conducted. We also demonstrate the use of such a model to optimally locate additional transplantation centres using simulation optimisation methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"11 1","pages":"30-47"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20476965.2020.1848355","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39756480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-26eCollection Date: 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1848357
Maartje Zonderland, Jos Bekkers, Jasper van Bommel, Maarten Ter Horst, Wouter van Leeuwen, Femke van den Wall Bake, Willem Wiegersma, Ad Bogers
The Thoraxcenter of Erasmus MC started an improvement project in 2015 in order to increase the number of open-heart surgeries by 150 for three consecutive years (450 in total, +46%), and to decrease the access time from 12-14 to 2-3 weeks by the end of 2016. This was required to attain economy of scale in a highly competitive market. In this paper we describe the first year of the project, focusing on its structure and interventions taken, resulting in 165 additional open-heart surgeries carried out in 2016 and a significantly shorter access time of 2-3 weeks.
{"title":"Increasing cardio-thoracic productivity at Erasmus MC.","authors":"Maartje Zonderland, Jos Bekkers, Jasper van Bommel, Maarten Ter Horst, Wouter van Leeuwen, Femke van den Wall Bake, Willem Wiegersma, Ad Bogers","doi":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1848357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20476965.2020.1848357","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Thoraxcenter of Erasmus MC started an improvement project in 2015 in order to increase the number of open-heart surgeries by 150 for three consecutive years (450 in total, +46%), and to decrease the access time from 12-14 to 2-3 weeks by the end of 2016. This was required to attain economy of scale in a highly competitive market. In this paper we describe the first year of the project, focusing on its structure and interventions taken, resulting in 165 additional open-heart surgeries carried out in 2016 and a significantly shorter access time of 2-3 weeks.</p>","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"11 1","pages":"68-74"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20476965.2020.1848357","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39756483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-13DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.11.20229559
Paul Robert Harper, Joshua W. Moore, Thomas E. Woolley
We estimate the number of secondary Covid-19 infections caused by potentially infectious students returning from university to private homes with other occupants. Using a Monte-Carlo method and data derived from UK sources, we predict that an infectious student would, on average, infect 0.94 other household members. Or, as a rule of thumb, each infected student would generate (just less than) one secondary within-household infection. The total number of secondary cases for all returning students is dependent on the virus prevalence within the student population at the time of their departure from campus back home. Correspondingly, we provide results for prevalence ranging from 0.5% to 15%, which is based on observed minimum and maximum estimates from Cardiff University's asymptomatic testing service. Although the proposed estimation method is general and robust, the results are sensitive to the input data. We therefore provide Matlab code and a helpful online app (http://bit.ly/Secondary_infections_app) that can be used to estimate numbers of secondary infections based on local parameter values
{"title":"Secondary Household Covid-19 Transmission Modelling of Students Returning Home from University","authors":"Paul Robert Harper, Joshua W. Moore, Thomas E. Woolley","doi":"10.1101/2020.11.11.20229559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.11.20229559","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the number of secondary Covid-19 infections caused by potentially infectious students returning from university to private homes with other occupants. Using a Monte-Carlo method and data derived from UK sources, we predict that an infectious student would, on average, infect 0.94 other household members. Or, as a rule of thumb, each infected student would generate (just less than) one secondary within-household infection. The total number of secondary cases for all returning students is dependent on the virus prevalence within the student population at the time of their departure from campus back home. Correspondingly, we provide results for prevalence ranging from 0.5% to 15%, which is based on observed minimum and maximum estimates from Cardiff University's asymptomatic testing service. Although the proposed estimation method is general and robust, the results are sensitive to the input data. We therefore provide Matlab code and a helpful online app (http://bit.ly/Secondary_infections_app) that can be used to estimate numbers of secondary infections based on local parameter values","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62316834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-06eCollection Date: 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1813056
Gustavo M Bacelar-Silva, James F Cox, Pedro Pereira Rodrigues
ABSTRACT Despite ever-increasing resources devoted to healthcare, lack of capacity and timeliness are still chronic problems worldwide. This systematic review aims to present an overview of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) implementations in healthcare services and their outcomes. We analysed 42 TOC implementations (15 full-text articles, 12 video proceedings, and 2 theses/disserations) from major scientific electronic databases and TOC International Certification Organization Conferences. All implementations reported positive outcomes, both tangible and intangible. The two main improvements reported by authors were in productivity (98%; n = 41) – more patients treated – and in the timeliness of care (83%; n = 35). Furthermore, the selected studies reported dramatic improvements: 50% mean reductions in patient waiting time; 38% reduction in patient length of stay; 43% mean increase in operating room productivity and 34% mean increase in throughput. TOC implementations attained positive results in all levels of the health and social care chain. Most TOC recommendations and changes showed almost immediate results and required little or no additional cost to implement. Evidence supports TOC as a promising solution for the chronic healthcare problem, improving quality and timeliness, both necessary conditions for providing effective healthcare.
{"title":"Outcomes of managing healthcare services using the Theory of Constraints: A systematic review.","authors":"Gustavo M Bacelar-Silva, James F Cox, Pedro Pereira Rodrigues","doi":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1813056","DOIUrl":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1813056","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Despite ever-increasing resources devoted to healthcare, lack of capacity and timeliness are still chronic problems worldwide. This systematic review aims to present an overview of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) implementations in healthcare services and their outcomes. We analysed 42 TOC implementations (15 full-text articles, 12 video proceedings, and 2 theses/disserations) from major scientific electronic databases and TOC International Certification Organization Conferences. All implementations reported positive outcomes, both tangible and intangible. The two main improvements reported by authors were in productivity (98%; n = 41) – more patients treated – and in the timeliness of care (83%; n = 35). Furthermore, the selected studies reported dramatic improvements: 50% mean reductions in patient waiting time; 38% reduction in patient length of stay; 43% mean increase in operating room productivity and 34% mean increase in throughput. TOC implementations attained positive results in all levels of the health and social care chain. Most TOC recommendations and changes showed almost immediate results and required little or no additional cost to implement. Evidence supports TOC as a promising solution for the chronic healthcare problem, improving quality and timeliness, both necessary conditions for providing effective healthcare.","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"11 1","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20476965.2020.1813056","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39756478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-29eCollection Date: 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1822146
Stephen McCarthy, Ciara Fitzgerald, Laura Sahm, Colin Bradley, Elaine K Walsh
Patient-held Health Information Technologies (HIT) can reduce medical error by improving communication between patients and the healthcare team. Despite the proposed benefits, the roll-out of patient-held HIT solutions remains nascent, leaving considerable gaps in our understanding of the adoption challenges inherent. This paper adopts Normalisation Process Theory to study the factors which support or impede the adoption and "normalisation" of patient-held HIT, particularly across the primary-secondary care interface. The authors conducted an in-depth case study of HIT adoption across four GP practices, and the wards of a 350 bed hospital. 35 semi-structured interviews were completed. Findings point towards both user-specific and network-specific factors as significant challenges to normalisation across primary-secondary care. This includes factors related to interactional workability, skill set workability, relational integration, and contextual integration. We also discuss challenges specific to patient-held HIT adoption e.g., understanding the patient/clinician experience, supporting informal clinician networks, and spanning across IT boundaries.
{"title":"Patient-held health IT adoption across the primary-secondary care interface: a Normalisation Process Theory perspective.","authors":"Stephen McCarthy, Ciara Fitzgerald, Laura Sahm, Colin Bradley, Elaine K Walsh","doi":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1822146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20476965.2020.1822146","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Patient-held Health Information Technologies (HIT) can reduce medical error by improving communication between patients and the healthcare team. Despite the proposed benefits, the roll-out of patient-held HIT solutions remains nascent, leaving considerable gaps in our understanding of the adoption challenges inherent. This paper adopts Normalisation Process Theory to study the factors which support or impede the adoption and \"normalisation\" of patient-held HIT, particularly across the primary-secondary care interface. The authors conducted an in-depth case study of HIT adoption across four GP practices, and the wards of a 350 bed hospital. 35 semi-structured interviews were completed. Findings point towards both user-specific and network-specific factors as significant challenges to normalisation across primary-secondary care. This includes factors related to interactional workability, skill set workability, relational integration, and contextual integration. We also discuss challenges specific to patient-held HIT adoption e.g., understanding the patient/clinician experience, supporting informal clinician networks, and spanning across IT boundaries.</p>","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"11 1","pages":"17-29"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20476965.2020.1822146","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39756479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-13eCollection Date: 2021-01-01DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1817801
Usama Kadri
ABSTRACT Rapid testing of appropriate samples from patients suspected for a disease during an epidemic, such as the current Coronavirus outbreak, is of a great importance for disease management and control. We propose a method to enhance processing large amounts of collected samples. The method is based on mixing samples in testing tubes (pooling) in a specific configuration, as opposed to testing single samples in each tube, and recognise infected samples from variations of the total infection rates in each tube. To illustrate the efficiency of the suggested method, we carry out numerical tests for actual scenarios under various test conditions. Applying the proposed method allows testing many more patients using the same number of testing tubes, where all positives are identified with no false negatives, and no need for independent testing, and the effective testing time can be reduced drastically even when the uncertainty in the test is relatively high.
{"title":"Variation of quantified infection rates of mixed samples to enhance rapid testing during an epidemic.","authors":"Usama Kadri","doi":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1817801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20476965.2020.1817801","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Rapid testing of appropriate samples from patients suspected for a disease during an epidemic, such as the current Coronavirus outbreak, is of a great importance for disease management and control. We propose a method to enhance processing large amounts of collected samples. The method is based on mixing samples in testing tubes (pooling) in a specific configuration, as opposed to testing single samples in each tube, and recognise infected samples from variations of the total infection rates in each tube. To illustrate the efficiency of the suggested method, we carry out numerical tests for actual scenarios under various test conditions. Applying the proposed method allows testing many more patients using the same number of testing tubes, where all positives are identified with no false negatives, and no need for independent testing, and the effective testing time can be reduced drastically even when the uncertainty in the test is relatively high.","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"10 1","pages":"24-30"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20476965.2020.1817801","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"25526784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-30eCollection Date: 2021-01-01DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1803148
Ralf Müller-Polyzou, Melanie Reuter-Oppermann, Anke Engbert, Raphael Schmidt
Increasing efficiency and reducing risk in radiotherapy cancer treatment is of high importance. User assistance systems within a digitally connected radiotherapy environment can support all involved professionals to perform their individual tasks faster and better. This paper presents a qualitative analysis of radiotherapy workflows and a corresponding process modelling in order to identify hypothetical user assistance systems for specific process activities. In addition, the results of an empirical study on the identified systems are presented together with derived requirements and design principles for these systems. A structured online survey with 50 medical physicists in Germany has been conducted. Among others the acceptance, the increase of perceived efficiency and the risk reduction while using the assistance systems are analysed and discussed. The results support the creation of value adding user assistance systems for radiotherapy that improve efficiency, reduce treatment risks and reach high user acceptance levels.
{"title":"Identifying user assistance systems for radiotherapy to increase efficiency and help saving lives.","authors":"Ralf Müller-Polyzou, Melanie Reuter-Oppermann, Anke Engbert, Raphael Schmidt","doi":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1803148","DOIUrl":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1803148","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Increasing efficiency and reducing risk in radiotherapy cancer treatment is of high importance. User assistance systems within a digitally connected radiotherapy environment can support all involved professionals to perform their individual tasks faster and better. This paper presents a qualitative analysis of radiotherapy workflows and a corresponding process modelling in order to identify hypothetical user assistance systems for specific process activities. In addition, the results of an empirical study on the identified systems are presented together with derived requirements and design principles for these systems. A structured online survey with 50 medical physicists in Germany has been conducted. Among others the acceptance, the increase of perceived efficiency and the risk reduction while using the assistance systems are analysed and discussed. The results support the creation of value adding user assistance systems for radiotherapy that improve efficiency, reduce treatment risks and reach high user acceptance levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"10 4","pages":"318-336"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8567950/pdf/THSS_10_1803148.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39597978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-27eCollection Date: 2021-01-01DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1796530
Ahmed Kheiri, Rhyd Lewis, Jonathan Thompson, Paul Harper
In hospitals, scheduled operations can often be cancelled in large numbers due to the unavailability of beds for post-operation recovery. Operating theatre scheduling is known to be an -hard optimisation problem. Previous studies have shown that the correct scheduling of surgical procedures can have a positive impact on the availability of beds in hospital wards, thereby allowing a reduction in number of elective operation cancellations. This study proposes an exact technique based on the partitioned graph colouring problem for constructing optimal master surgery schedules, with the goal of minimising the number of cancellations. The resultant schedules are then simulated in order to measure how well they cope with the stochastic nature of patient arrivals. Our results show that the utilisation of post-operative beds can be increased, whilst the number of cancellations can be decreased, which may ultimately lead to greater patient throughput and reduced waiting times. A scenario-based model has also been employed to integrate the stochastic-nature associated with the bed requirements into the optimisation process. The results indicate that the proposed model can lead to more robust solutions.
{"title":"Constructing operating theatre schedules using partitioned graph colouring techniques.","authors":"Ahmed Kheiri, Rhyd Lewis, Jonathan Thompson, Paul Harper","doi":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1796530","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20476965.2020.1796530","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In hospitals, scheduled operations can often be cancelled in large numbers due to the unavailability of beds for post-operation recovery. Operating theatre scheduling is known to be an <math> <mrow><mrow><mi>N</mi></mrow> </mrow> <mrow><mrow><mi>P</mi></mrow> </mrow> </math> -hard optimisation problem. Previous studies have shown that the correct scheduling of surgical procedures can have a positive impact on the availability of beds in hospital wards, thereby allowing a reduction in number of elective operation cancellations. This study proposes an exact technique based on the partitioned graph colouring problem for constructing optimal master surgery schedules, with the goal of minimising the number of cancellations. The resultant schedules are then simulated in order to measure how well they cope with the stochastic nature of patient arrivals. Our results show that the utilisation of post-operative beds can be increased, whilst the number of cancellations can be decreased, which may ultimately lead to greater patient throughput and reduced waiting times. A scenario-based model has also been employed to integrate the stochastic-nature associated with the bed requirements into the optimisation process. The results indicate that the proposed model can lead to more robust solutions.</p>","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"10 4","pages":"286-297"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20476965.2020.1796530","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39597976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-25eCollection Date: 2021-01-01DOI: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1783190
Mohamed A K Al-Azzani, Soheil Davari, Tracey Jane England
A primary goal of emergency services is to minimise the response times to emergencies whilst managing operational costs. This paper is motivated by real data from the Welsh Ambulance Service which in recent years has been criticised for not meeting its eight-minute response target. In this study, four forecasting approaches (ARIMA, Holt Winters, Multiple Regression and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)) are considered to investigate whether they can provide more accurate predictions to the call volume demand (total and by category) than the current approach on a selection of planning horizons (weekly, monthly and 3-monthly). Each method is applied to a training and test set and root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) error statistics are determined. Results showed that ARIMA is the best forecasting method for weekly and monthly prediction of demand and the long-term demand is best predicted using the SSA method.
{"title":"An empirical investigation of forecasting methods for ambulance calls - a case study.","authors":"Mohamed A K Al-Azzani, Soheil Davari, Tracey Jane England","doi":"10.1080/20476965.2020.1783190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20476965.2020.1783190","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A primary goal of emergency services is to minimise the response times to emergencies whilst managing operational costs. This paper is motivated by real data from the Welsh Ambulance Service which in recent years has been criticised for not meeting its eight-minute response target. In this study, four forecasting approaches (ARIMA, Holt Winters, Multiple Regression and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)) are considered to investigate whether they can provide more accurate predictions to the call volume demand (total and by category) than the current approach on a selection of planning horizons (weekly, monthly and 3-monthly). Each method is applied to a training and test set and root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) error statistics are determined. Results showed that ARIMA is the best forecasting method for weekly and monthly prediction of demand and the long-term demand is best predicted using the SSA method.</p>","PeriodicalId":44699,"journal":{"name":"Health Systems","volume":"10 4","pages":"268-285"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20476965.2020.1783190","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39597975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}