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The Rules-Based International Order Under Siege 以规则为基础的国际秩序陷入困境
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70034
Aries A. Arugay
<p>The rules-based international order (RBIO), a by-product of post-World War II multilateralism and post-Cold War liberal triumphalism, is now experiencing its most severe stress test since its inception. The global normative framework that once fostered free trade, peace, stability, and international cooperation has been steadily eroded by revisionist states and now further weakened by the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump 2.0 has already begun to realign US foreign policy away from liberal internationalism and toward a more unilateral, transactional, and sovereignty-centered approach. In Asia, the implications are far-reaching, as regional actors recalibrate their strategic positions in response to both an increasingly contested RBIO and a disruptive United States.</p><p>However, Asian states are not passively observing the RBIO's decay but are actively navigating its transformation—some by defending its core principles, others by subtly revising it, and many by hedging, adapting, or accommodating based on shifting power realities. The result is a contested and pluralized regional order, where liberal norms coexist uneasily with realist calculations and authoritarian tendencies.</p><p>The People's Republic of China continues to lead the charge against the universality of the liberal international order. While Beijing remains rhetorically committed to international law and multilateral institutions, its actions reveal a preference for a hierarchical, sovereignty-centered, and Sinocentric order. In the maritime domain, China has ignored the 2016 Arbitral Award in favor of the Philippines and continues aggressive expansionism in the South China Sea. In the technological and economic arenas, it promotes decoupled, state-dominated ecosystems that challenge open markets and regulatory transparency.</p><p>Russia, although geographically peripheral to the Indo-Pacific, plays a supportive role in this revisionist axis. The ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia's deepening strategic alignment with China signal a broader ideological defiance of the West-led order. Their growing coordination—including joint military exercises in East Asia—adds to regional anxiety about a possible “authoritarian entente” that undermines democratic norms and international law.</p><p>Compounding these challenges is the current posture of the United States under President Donald Trump. Trump's return to power has reintroduced a foreign policy style marked by isolationism, transactionalism, and a deep skepticism toward traditional allies and multilateral institutions. His administration has already begun scaling back commitments to NATO, de-emphasizing democratic promotion abroad, and signaling discomfort with long-standing security arrangements in Asia.</p><p>In the Indo-Pacific, Trump 2.0 has led to renewed uncertainty over US extended deterrence, especially regarding North Korea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. His administration's growing focus on bilateral dea
以规则为基础的国际秩序(RBIO)是二战后多边主义和冷战后自由主义必胜信念的副产品,目前正经历其建立以来最严峻的压力考验。曾经促进自由贸易、和平、稳定和国际合作的全球规范框架已被修正主义国家不断侵蚀,现在又因唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫而进一步削弱。特朗普2.0已经开始重新调整美国的外交政策,从自由国际主义转向更加单边、交易和以主权为中心的方式。在亚洲,随着地区参与者重新调整其战略立场,以应对竞争日益激烈的RBIO和破坏性的美国,其影响是深远的。然而,亚洲国家并不是被动地观察RBIO的衰落,而是积极地引导其转型——一些国家捍卫其核心原则,另一些国家对其进行微妙的修改,还有许多国家根据不断变化的权力现实进行对冲、调整或适应。其结果是一个有争议的、多元化的地区秩序,自由规范与现实主义的算计和威权主义倾向不安地共存。中华人民共和国继续带头反对自由主义国际秩序的普遍性。虽然北京在口头上仍然致力于国际法和多边机构,但其行动显示出对等级制、以主权为中心和以中国为中心的秩序的偏好。在海洋领域,中国无视2016年的仲裁裁决,支持菲律宾,继续在南海进行侵略性扩张。在技术和经济领域,它促进了分离的、国家主导的生态系统,挑战了开放市场和监管透明度。俄罗斯虽然在地理上处于印度太平洋的边缘,但在这一修正主义轴心中发挥着支持作用。正在进行的乌克兰战争和俄罗斯与中国不断深化的战略结盟,都表明了对西方主导的秩序的更广泛的意识形态蔑视。两国日益增强的合作——包括在东亚的联合军事演习——加剧了该地区对可能出现的“威权协约”的担忧,这种协约破坏了民主准则和国际法。唐纳德·特朗普总统领导下的美国目前的姿态加剧了这些挑战。特朗普的重新掌权重新引入了一种外交政策风格,其特点是孤立主义、交易主义,以及对传统盟友和多边机构的深刻怀疑。美国已经开始缩减对北约的承诺,不再强调在海外促进民主,并对亚洲长期存在的安全安排表示不满。在印太地区,特朗普2.0导致了美国延伸威慑的新不确定性,特别是在朝鲜、台湾和南中国海问题上。欧盟越来越关注双边协议,而不是区域伙伴关系,这给四方战略对话和印度-太平洋经济框架(IPEF)等集体框架带来了压力。与此同时,特朗普对强人领导人的公开钦佩和对民主规范的无视,助长了不自由的政权,削弱了自由民主的全球地位。长期以来,亚洲国家一直依赖美国作为地区力量平衡的稳定器和对抗中国霸权的后盾。然而,特朗普不稳定的外交和对联盟的无视,迫使地区行为体重新考虑它们对美国领导的依赖。这种矛盾心理造成的真空并不一定会导致中国的主导地位,但它确实会带来更大的对冲、分裂和规范的流动性。在这些变化中,一些亚洲民主国家仍然坚定地捍卫RBIO。日本继续在国际法治、海洋自由和多边合作方面发挥主导作用。岸田文雄首相深化了日本的地区参与,扩大了与东南亚的安全合作,并投资于维护自由贸易规范的经济框架。尽管韩国与美国和中国的关系都很复杂,但在规范上仍与RBIO保持一致。在尹总统的领导下,韩国加强了与美国的关系,同时谨慎地加强了与日本的三边合作,这是对以规则为基础的治理对应对朝鲜威胁和地区不稳定的重要性的战略认识(Ban 2020)。然而,大多数东南亚国家既没有修改也没有明确捍卫RBIO。相反,他们进行战略调整——追求自治,伙伴关系多样化,并在大国之间保持微妙的平衡。东盟以共识为基础的外交反映了该地区对模棱两可、不结盟和渐进主义的偏好。小马科斯(Ferdinand Marcos Jr.)治下的菲律宾就是一个很好的例子。 马尼拉通过扩大EDCA基地和增加联合军事演习,重申了与华盛顿的联盟关系。然而,它也保持着与中国的经济联系,并避免使用对抗性的言论。​印度尼西亚体现了地区矛盾心理。雅加达支持东盟中心地位和海上合作,但不愿选边站。它的战略文化强调主权、不结盟和经济外交,这使得它抵制任何中美竞争的二元框架。越南同样在捍卫主权对抗中国的自信与共产主义世界的战略实用主义和意识形态团结之间取得平衡(Yoshimatsu 2022)。亚洲的RBIO并没有崩溃,但它正在发生变异。特朗普的回归加速了自由主义霸权的侵蚀,但并没有消除对规则、规范和制度的需求。相反,正在出现的是一种多元和混合的地区秩序——一种融合了自由主义、现实主义和地区例外论元素的秩序。中等大国和地区国家仍有代理权。他们可以制定新的多边安排,通过国际法捍卫海洋权利,并有选择地参与维护开放市场和战略稳定的机构。CPTPP、IPEF(尽管削弱了)和东盟主导的机制仍然是这一重建的关键场所(Yeo和Chung 2023)。对东南亚来说,当务之急是建立复原力——不是通过选边站队,而是通过投资于机构能力,增强海洋意识,并通过法律和外交手段维护主权。巩固民主也必须成为优先事项,以免该地区滑入威权修正主义的轨道。本期《APP》有三篇关于环境政治和政策的文章,是上一期的延续,还有关于中国政治、菲律宾外交政策、两岸关系的研究文章,以及两篇关于东盟印太战略的文章。我们也有关于朝鲜人工智能和中国-南方共同市场关系的政策文件。我们希望我们的读者对我们的最新一期会有很大的兴趣。
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引用次数: 0
Subsuming Chinese Business Elites Into the Party's Fold: The Subtle Strategies of the United Front Work Department 将中国商业精英纳入党的阵营:统战部的微妙策略
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70022
Zhu Zhang

How does an authoritarian regime incorporate economic elites during market transitions while retaining political control? This article analyzes the strategies of China's United Front Work Department (UFWD) in politically integrating private business elites amid the shift to a socialist market economy. Based on 56 in-depth interviews and a biographical data set of the top 500 Chinese billionaires, the study shows how the UFWD acts as an adaptive institutional mechanism—deploying recognition, intermediaries, appointments, and training—to embed entrepreneurs into Party-sanctioned roles. The findings reveal a structured co-optation process rooted in utility, loyalty, and representativeness, enabling the CCP to leverage elite resources while minimizing political risk. By illuminating how the Party incorporates powerful actors without relinquishing control, the paper contributes to broader debates on authoritarian resilience, elite co-optation, and institutional adaptation under nondemocratic regimes.

一个威权政权如何在市场转型期间吸纳经济精英,同时保持政治控制?本文分析了在向社会主义市场经济转型的背景下,中国统战部(UFWD)在政治上整合民营企业精英的策略。基于56个深度访谈和500位中国亿万富翁的传记数据集,该研究展示了UFWD如何作为一种适应性的制度机制——部署认可、中介、任命和培训——将企业家嵌入党认可的角色。研究结果揭示了一个基于效用、忠诚和代表性的结构性选任过程,使中共能够在最大限度地降低政治风险的同时利用精英资源。通过阐明党如何在不放弃控制的情况下整合强大的行动者,本文有助于对非民主政权下的威权恢复力、精英合作和制度适应进行更广泛的讨论。
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引用次数: 0
The Black Hole of Centralization: Subnational Emergency Invocations During the Tenures of Indira Gandhi and Narendra Modi 中央集权的黑洞:英迪拉·甘地和纳伦德拉·莫迪任期内的次国家紧急情况
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70023
Panch Rishi Dev Sharma

The constitutional provision of “Subnational Emergency” under Article 356 of the Constitution of India, 1950, extraordinarily empowers the central (union) government to acquire executive and legislative powers of the states (subnational units) on the occurrence of an undefined and largely unrestrained state of “constitutional machinery failure” emergency. Since 1950, central governments have imposed 121 subnational emergency invocations covering almost all Indian states at least once. The oft-abused subnational emergency power has generated a black hole of centralization overpowering the gravity of federalism, constitutionalism, and democracy in India. The frequency of subnational emergency invocations reaches its zenith during the regimes of single-party personality-dominated central governments. The article comparatively explores two of the most prominent tenures of single-party personality-dominated central governments under Indira Gandhi (1967–1977, 1980–1984) and Narendra Modi (2014–2024) regarding the grounds, manner, justifications, and state of restraints on subnational emergency power.

1950年《印度宪法》第356条关于“地方紧急状态”的宪法规定特别授权中央(联邦)政府在“宪法机器失灵”紧急状态发生时获得各邦(地方单位)的行政权和立法权。自1950年以来,中央政府已经实施了121次地方紧急调用,覆盖了几乎所有印度邦至少一次。经常被滥用的地方紧急权力在印度形成了一个中央集权的黑洞,它压倒了联邦制、宪政和民主的引力。地方紧急状态的频率在一党专政的中央政府统治时期达到顶峰。本文比较探讨了英迪拉·甘地(1967-1977年,1980-1984年)和纳伦德拉·莫迪(2014-2024年)领导的两个最著名的一党专政的中央政府任期,包括对地方紧急权力的限制的依据、方式、理由和状态。
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引用次数: 0
The “Indo-Pacific” Order: A Southeast Asian Perspective 东南亚视角下的“印太”秩序
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70031
M.L. Pinitbhand Paribatra

Situated in the literature on “Global IR” and how smaller states navigate the great power rivalries, this article examines Southeast Asia's engagement with emerging international orders, particularly within the “Indo-Pacific” framework, and explores how structural constraints interact with agency. Based on qualitative documentary research analyzing selected scholarship from academics based in the region, this paper identifies two key contributions to the Southeast Asian scholarship in Global IR. First, the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) exemplifies the region's ability to incorporate a normative identity with pragmatic engagement; hereby, highlighting the region's methods for constructing agency through both material and ideational factors. Second, the AOIP acknowledges the region's position within a fluid international system, where weaker states may leverage structural advantages and utilize individual and institutional mechanisms to maneuver regional and global orders.

本文以“全球国际关系”和小国如何应对大国竞争的文献为背景,考察了东南亚与新兴国际秩序的接触,特别是在“印太”框架内,并探讨了结构性约束如何与机构相互作用。在定性文献研究的基础上,本文分析了该地区学者的选定奖学金,确定了东南亚奖学金在全球国际关系中的两个关键贡献。首先,《东盟印太展望》(ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, AOIP)体现了该地区将规范认同与务实接触相结合的能力;在此,从物质因素和思想因素两方面突出了区域建构代理的方法。第二,该组织承认该地区在一个不断变化的国际体系中的地位,弱国可以利用结构性优势,利用个人和机构机制来操纵地区和全球秩序。
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引用次数: 0
Review of From Development to Democracy: The Transformations of Modern Asia 《从发展到民主:现代亚洲的转型》述评
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70024
William J. Jones
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引用次数: 0
Beyond Economics: Political Identity and the Future of Cross-Strait Relations 超越经济:两岸关系的政治认同与未来
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70027
Ignacio Vicuña Betancourt, Juan Pablo Sims, Brice Tseen Fu Lee, Yun-Tso Lee

This paper explores the intricate dynamics of cross-Strait relations between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan, focusing on the interplay of political cooperation, national identity, and economic interdependence in the unification process. Through content analysis and Key Word in Context (KWIC) methodologies, it examines political discourse from Taiwan's presidential speeches (1996–2023), China's White Papers (1993, 2000, and 2022), and Chinese Communist Party National Congress Reports (1997–2022). The findings reveal that although economic interdependence stabilizes cross-Strait relations, it cannot resolve the challenges of conflicting identities and limited political cooperation. Taiwan's growing emphasis on autonomy contrasts with China's sovereignty claims and unification strategies, complicated further by US geopolitical influence. The study concludes that without a shared political and identity framework, economic ties alone cannot achieve unification, challenging integration theories such as neofunctionalism. This highlights identity and cooperation as critical obstacles in cross-Strait relations.

​研究结果显示,虽然经济上的相互依存稳定了两岸关系,但它无法解决身份冲突和政治合作有限的挑战。台湾对自治的日益强调,与中国的主权主张和统一战略形成了鲜明对比,而美国的地缘政治影响进一步加剧了这种对比。该研究的结论是,如果没有共同的政治和身份框架,仅靠经济联系无法实现统一,这对新功能主义等一体化理论提出了挑战。这凸显了身份认同与合作是两岸关系的关键障碍。
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引用次数: 0
Decolonizing Environmental Politics: Relationality and Cosmopraxis in the Sundarbans Region, Bangladesh 非殖民化环境政治:孟加拉国孙德尔本斯地区的关系与世界主义
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70021
Abhishek Choudhary

The paper seeks to bridge the gap between environmental policy formulation and actual practices of the Sundarbans region in Bangladesh through a metatheoretical intervention within a decolonial framework. Ontologically, it foregrounds relationality and examines the implication of such ontological position. Epistemologically, the paper advocates standpoint epistemologies. With an effort to decolonize environmental governance, the paper specifically focusses on the epistemic erasures of traditional resource users in the Sundarbans. It engages with the ways in which specific communities engage with the mangrove forest ecosystem. Methodologically, the paper borrows the framework of Hybrid/Plural Climate Studies and Cosmopraxis. Cosmopraxis has the potential of countering epistemic erasures done by modernity and colonization of the lifeworld. Empirically, the paper examines the case of select communities in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh where their reciprocal and relational engagement with the nature goes beyond spirituality and shows an implicit presence of cosmopraxis.

本文试图通过在非殖民化框架内的元理论干预,弥合孟加拉国孙德尔本斯地区环境政策制定与实际做法之间的差距。在本体论上,它突出了关系,并探讨了这种本体论立场的含义。在认识论上,本文主张立场认识论。为了实现环境治理的非殖民化,本文特别关注孙德尔本斯地区传统资源使用者的认知抹除。它与特定社区参与红树林生态系统的方式有关。在方法上,本文借鉴了混合/多元气候研究和宇宙实践的框架。宇宙主义具有对抗现代性和生活世界殖民化所造成的认知抹除的潜力。从经验上看,本文考察了孟加拉国孙德尔本斯地区的一些社区,在那里,他们与自然的互动和关系超越了精神层面,表现出一种隐含的宇宙主义。
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引用次数: 0
Private Revolutions: Four Women Face China's New Social Order, By , Yuan Yang, Norfolk, US: Viking, 2024. 304 pp. $30. ISBN: 978-0-593-49390-8. 《私人革命:四位女性面对中国新社会秩序》,杨媛著,美国诺福克:维京出版社,2024年版。304页,30美元。ISBN: 978-0-593-49390-8。
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70030
Doris Anderson
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引用次数: 0
Emerging Applications and Implications of Artificial Intelligence in North Korea 人工智能在朝鲜的新兴应用和影响
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70026
Andrew Shin

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly through deep learning, is reshaping national security and governance worldwide. Even resource-constrained states like North Korea are leveraging these technologies to enhance control and project influence. This paper examines North Korea's adoption of AI, highlighting how deep learning has enabled more direct and impactful applications than earlier approaches. While North Korea's AI research dates back to the 1990s, recent developments have empowered the regime to use AI for strategic purposes such as counterfeit identity generation and facial recognition-based surveillance. The paper explores the security risks posed by these applications, the regime's motivations, and the limitations it faces due to restricted access to hardware and data. It also considers potential international responses to mitigate these threats. By focusing on North Korea, this analysis contributes to broader discussions on the role of AI in authoritarian resilience and the shifting landscape of global security.

人工智能(AI)的快速发展,特别是通过深度学习,正在重塑全球的国家安全和治理。甚至像朝鲜这样资源受限的国家也在利用这些技术来加强控制和项目影响力。本文研究了朝鲜对人工智能的采用,强调了深度学习如何比以前的方法实现更直接和更有影响力的应用。虽然朝鲜的人工智能研究可以追溯到上世纪90年代,但最近的发展使该政权能够将人工智能用于战略目的,如伪造身份和基于面部识别的监控。本文探讨了这些应用程序带来的安全风险,政权的动机,以及由于对硬件和数据的限制访问而面临的限制。它还考虑了减轻这些威胁的潜在国际反应。通过关注朝鲜,这一分析有助于更广泛地讨论人工智能在威权复原力和全球安全格局变化中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Cooperation Between MERCOSUR and China for Innovation 加强南方共同市场与中国的创新合作
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70032
Thiebaut Renata

Since the implementation of the “Made in China 2025” and “Internet Plus” initiative, China's central government has focused on transforming the economy into one driven by innovation. However, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly the US trade war—countries now must accelerate their efforts to diversify its international partnerships, reduce dependency on the American market, and build resilient cooperation frameworks. This paper discusses the importance of China's foreign affairs approach to diminish the reliance on trade and infrastructure building and increase cooperation on science and technology particularly in the MERCOSUR context. Finally, this paper aims to propose enhanced cooperation between China and MERCOSUR members through a bilateral agreement that focuses on the Digital Economy through the exploration of joint efforts for trade investments and strategy exchange framework in technology and sciences-related topics in selected industries.

自实施“中国制造2025”和“互联网+”倡议以来,中国中央政府一直致力于将经济转变为创新驱动型经济。然而,在持续的地缘政治紧张局势中,特别是美国的贸易战,各国现在必须加快努力,使其国际伙伴关系多样化,减少对美国市场的依赖,并建立有弹性的合作框架。本文讨论了中国外交方式在减少对贸易和基础设施建设的依赖以及增加科技合作方面的重要性,特别是在南方共同市场的背景下。最后,本文旨在建议中国与南方共同市场成员国之间通过双边协议加强合作,重点关注数字经济,通过探索在选定行业的贸易投资和技术和科学相关主题的战略交流框架共同努力。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asian Politics & Policy
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