<p>The rules-based international order (RBIO), a by-product of post-World War II multilateralism and post-Cold War liberal triumphalism, is now experiencing its most severe stress test since its inception. The global normative framework that once fostered free trade, peace, stability, and international cooperation has been steadily eroded by revisionist states and now further weakened by the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump 2.0 has already begun to realign US foreign policy away from liberal internationalism and toward a more unilateral, transactional, and sovereignty-centered approach. In Asia, the implications are far-reaching, as regional actors recalibrate their strategic positions in response to both an increasingly contested RBIO and a disruptive United States.</p><p>However, Asian states are not passively observing the RBIO's decay but are actively navigating its transformation—some by defending its core principles, others by subtly revising it, and many by hedging, adapting, or accommodating based on shifting power realities. The result is a contested and pluralized regional order, where liberal norms coexist uneasily with realist calculations and authoritarian tendencies.</p><p>The People's Republic of China continues to lead the charge against the universality of the liberal international order. While Beijing remains rhetorically committed to international law and multilateral institutions, its actions reveal a preference for a hierarchical, sovereignty-centered, and Sinocentric order. In the maritime domain, China has ignored the 2016 Arbitral Award in favor of the Philippines and continues aggressive expansionism in the South China Sea. In the technological and economic arenas, it promotes decoupled, state-dominated ecosystems that challenge open markets and regulatory transparency.</p><p>Russia, although geographically peripheral to the Indo-Pacific, plays a supportive role in this revisionist axis. The ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia's deepening strategic alignment with China signal a broader ideological defiance of the West-led order. Their growing coordination—including joint military exercises in East Asia—adds to regional anxiety about a possible “authoritarian entente” that undermines democratic norms and international law.</p><p>Compounding these challenges is the current posture of the United States under President Donald Trump. Trump's return to power has reintroduced a foreign policy style marked by isolationism, transactionalism, and a deep skepticism toward traditional allies and multilateral institutions. His administration has already begun scaling back commitments to NATO, de-emphasizing democratic promotion abroad, and signaling discomfort with long-standing security arrangements in Asia.</p><p>In the Indo-Pacific, Trump 2.0 has led to renewed uncertainty over US extended deterrence, especially regarding North Korea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. His administration's growing focus on bilateral dea
{"title":"The Rules-Based International Order Under Siege","authors":"Aries A. Arugay","doi":"10.1111/aspp.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aspp.70034","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The rules-based international order (RBIO), a by-product of post-World War II multilateralism and post-Cold War liberal triumphalism, is now experiencing its most severe stress test since its inception. The global normative framework that once fostered free trade, peace, stability, and international cooperation has been steadily eroded by revisionist states and now further weakened by the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump 2.0 has already begun to realign US foreign policy away from liberal internationalism and toward a more unilateral, transactional, and sovereignty-centered approach. In Asia, the implications are far-reaching, as regional actors recalibrate their strategic positions in response to both an increasingly contested RBIO and a disruptive United States.</p><p>However, Asian states are not passively observing the RBIO's decay but are actively navigating its transformation—some by defending its core principles, others by subtly revising it, and many by hedging, adapting, or accommodating based on shifting power realities. The result is a contested and pluralized regional order, where liberal norms coexist uneasily with realist calculations and authoritarian tendencies.</p><p>The People's Republic of China continues to lead the charge against the universality of the liberal international order. While Beijing remains rhetorically committed to international law and multilateral institutions, its actions reveal a preference for a hierarchical, sovereignty-centered, and Sinocentric order. In the maritime domain, China has ignored the 2016 Arbitral Award in favor of the Philippines and continues aggressive expansionism in the South China Sea. In the technological and economic arenas, it promotes decoupled, state-dominated ecosystems that challenge open markets and regulatory transparency.</p><p>Russia, although geographically peripheral to the Indo-Pacific, plays a supportive role in this revisionist axis. The ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia's deepening strategic alignment with China signal a broader ideological defiance of the West-led order. Their growing coordination—including joint military exercises in East Asia—adds to regional anxiety about a possible “authoritarian entente” that undermines democratic norms and international law.</p><p>Compounding these challenges is the current posture of the United States under President Donald Trump. Trump's return to power has reintroduced a foreign policy style marked by isolationism, transactionalism, and a deep skepticism toward traditional allies and multilateral institutions. His administration has already begun scaling back commitments to NATO, de-emphasizing democratic promotion abroad, and signaling discomfort with long-standing security arrangements in Asia.</p><p>In the Indo-Pacific, Trump 2.0 has led to renewed uncertainty over US extended deterrence, especially regarding North Korea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. His administration's growing focus on bilateral dea","PeriodicalId":44747,"journal":{"name":"Asian Politics & Policy","volume":"17 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aspp.70034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}