I investigate the apparent tension between the idea that collective intentions are the result of team reasoning and the idea that there can be spontaneous collective intentions. This raises a more general question about the relationship between reasoning and spontaneous intentions, including in the individual case. I show that the tension need not arise in accounts that separate intentions from intentionality, as they can deny spontaneous intentions while retaining spontaneous intentionality in both the individual and the collective case. However, individual reasoning is a special case in the team reasoning model and spontaneous individual intentions are plausible, so it would be advantageous for team reasoning theorists to be able to account for spontaneous intentions in the collective case. In order to do this, we need to show how spontaneous intentions are compatible with reasoning. I consider how reasoning is understood in philosophy, economics, and cognitive science, and I show how spontaneous collective intentions can be reconciled on at least some accounts of what it is to do reasoning, which are compatible with the way ?reasoning? is used in the team reasoning literature. I argue that we should think of team reasoning as a ?computational-level model?, as used in cognitive science. I draw on research from philosophy of computation, and show how, on some theories, the view of reasoning as computation has sympathetic implications for theories of group agency, as it would allow that groups can be reasoners.
{"title":"Team Reasoning and Spontaneous Collective Intentions","authors":"Natalie Gold","doi":"10.3917/REDP.283.0333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REDP.283.0333","url":null,"abstract":"I investigate the apparent tension between the idea that collective intentions are the result of team reasoning and the idea that there can be spontaneous collective intentions. This raises a more general question about the relationship between reasoning and spontaneous intentions, including in the individual case. I show that the tension need not arise in accounts that separate intentions from intentionality, as they can deny spontaneous intentions while retaining spontaneous intentionality in both the individual and the collective case. However, individual reasoning is a special case in the team reasoning model and spontaneous individual intentions are plausible, so it would be advantageous for team reasoning theorists to be able to account for spontaneous intentions in the collective case. In order to do this, we need to show how spontaneous intentions are compatible with reasoning. I consider how reasoning is understood in philosophy, economics, and cognitive science, and I show how spontaneous collective intentions can be reconciled on at least some accounts of what it is to do reasoning, which are compatible with the way ?reasoning? is used in the team reasoning literature. I argue that we should think of team reasoning as a ?computational-level model?, as used in cognitive science. I draw on research from philosophy of computation, and show how, on some theories, the view of reasoning as computation has sympathetic implications for theories of group agency, as it would allow that groups can be reasoners.","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"15 1","pages":"333-353"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83495512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cet article procede a une comparaison de deux formes de politiques comportementales, les boosts et les nudges, du point de vue des questions normatives auxquelles elles doivent repondre. Ces politiques s’inscrivent toutes les deux dans une perspective welfariste, i.e. elles veillent a respecter les attitudes subjectives et raisonnables des individus dans la determination des jugements concernant le bien-etre de chacun d’entre eux. Cependant, dans la mesure ou ces deux formes de politiques comportementales affectent les comportements par des biais differents, leur adhesion au welfarisme n’induit pas les memes implications normatives. Les nudges affectent les comportements en agissant sur le contexte de choix en s’appuyant sur les resultats experimentaux etablissant une stabilite des relations entre les elements du contexte et les comportements. Ce type d’intervention ne depend pas du degre de comprehension ou de la participation active et volontaire des individus vises. Par consequent, la justification des nudges repose sur la demonstration que l’intervention va permettre de corriger une erreur comportementale et effectivement mener a un meilleur resultat. Les boosts, quant a eux, affectent les comportements en ameliorant les competences des individus a la prise de decision via l’utilisation d’outils. Ce type d’intervention requiert la comprehension et la participation active et volontaire des sujets. Par consequent, la justification des boosts ne depend pas des questions normatives relatives a l’identification des erreurs ou a la determination de l’amelioration effective du bien-etre via l’intervention. Bien que les partisans des nudges puissent parfois repondre a ces difficultes normatives, il apparait que les boosts les evitent d’emblee. De ce point de vue, les boosts apparaissent preferables aux nudges.
{"title":"Boosts vs. Nudges from a Welfarist Perspective","authors":"Till Grüne-Yanoff","doi":"10.3917/REDP.282.0209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REDP.282.0209","url":null,"abstract":"Cet article procede a une comparaison de deux formes de politiques comportementales, les boosts et les nudges, du point de vue des questions normatives auxquelles elles doivent repondre. Ces politiques s’inscrivent toutes les deux dans une perspective welfariste, i.e. elles veillent a respecter les attitudes subjectives et raisonnables des individus dans la determination des jugements concernant le bien-etre de chacun d’entre eux. Cependant, dans la mesure ou ces deux formes de politiques comportementales affectent les comportements par des biais differents, leur adhesion au welfarisme n’induit pas les memes implications normatives. Les nudges affectent les comportements en agissant sur le contexte de choix en s’appuyant sur les resultats experimentaux etablissant une stabilite des relations entre les elements du contexte et les comportements. Ce type d’intervention ne depend pas du degre de comprehension ou de la participation active et volontaire des individus vises. Par consequent, la justification des nudges repose sur la demonstration que l’intervention va permettre de corriger une erreur comportementale et effectivement mener a un meilleur resultat. Les boosts, quant a eux, affectent les comportements en ameliorant les competences des individus a la prise de decision via l’utilisation d’outils. Ce type d’intervention requiert la comprehension et la participation active et volontaire des sujets. Par consequent, la justification des boosts ne depend pas des questions normatives relatives a l’identification des erreurs ou a la determination de l’amelioration effective du bien-etre via l’intervention. Bien que les partisans des nudges puissent parfois repondre a ces difficultes normatives, il apparait que les boosts les evitent d’emblee. De ce point de vue, les boosts apparaissent preferables aux nudges.","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"89 1","pages":"209-224"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87827590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we assess the beliefs of aspiring top civil servants towards the private sector. We use a survey conducted in a French university known for training most of the future high-ranking civil servants and politicians, as well as students who will work in the private sector. Our results show that students aspiring to work in the public sector are more likely to distrust the private sector, to believe that conducting business is easy, and are less likely to see the benefits of public-private partnerships. They are also more likely to believe that private sector workers are self-interested. These results have strong implications for the level of regulation in France, and the cooperation between the public and private sector.
{"title":"Aspiring Top Civil Servants’ Distrust in the Private Sector","authors":"Anne Boring, C. Desrieux, Romain Espinosa","doi":"10.3917/REDP.286.1047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REDP.286.1047","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we assess the beliefs of aspiring top civil servants towards the private sector. We use a survey conducted in a French university known for training most of the future high-ranking civil servants and politicians, as well as students who will work in the private sector. Our results show that students aspiring to work in the public sector are more likely to distrust the private sector, to believe that conducting business is easy, and are less likely to see the benefits of public-private partnerships. They are also more likely to believe that private sector workers are self-interested. These results have strong implications for the level of regulation in France, and the cooperation between the public and private sector.","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"159 2","pages":"1047-1087"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72498369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Theories of team reasoning in game theory build on the assumption that best-reply reasoning is not the only reasoning mode agents may endorse. Instead, they may make choice on the basis of team preferences and/or as participants in a mutually beneficial practice. This paper reflects on the way to account for the rationality of endorsing team reasoning in a strategic decision problem. I focus on the particular issue of the rationality of making choice on the basis of team reasoning rather than other reasoning modes. I argue that the endorsement of team reasoning in specific contexts can be interpreted as a commitment that can be rationally assessed from an agent-subjective perspective. This necessitates making a distinction between preferences, conceived as individual interests, and values, defined as broader motivations and reasons to act. I suggest that this account of the rationality of team reasoning has significant normative implications, in particular regarding the relevance of standard welfare economics.
{"title":"On the Rationality of Team Reasoning and Some of its Normative Implications","authors":"Cyril Hédoin","doi":"10.3917/redp.283.0373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/redp.283.0373","url":null,"abstract":"Theories of team reasoning in game theory build on the assumption that best-reply reasoning is not the only reasoning mode agents may endorse. Instead, they may make choice on the basis of team preferences and/or as participants in a mutually beneficial practice. This paper reflects on the way to account for the rationality of endorsing team reasoning in a strategic decision problem. I focus on the particular issue of the rationality of making choice on the basis of team reasoning rather than other reasoning modes. I argue that the endorsement of team reasoning in specific contexts can be interpreted as a commitment that can be rationally assessed from an agent-subjective perspective. This necessitates making a distinction between preferences, conceived as individual interests, and values, defined as broader motivations and reasons to act. I suggest that this account of the rationality of team reasoning has significant normative implications, in particular regarding the relevance of standard welfare economics.","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"52 1","pages":"373-392"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80955007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In a large range of political and economic situations, the formation of coordinated groups is driven by two opposite forces: increasing returns to size on the one hand, the heterogeneity of preferences, which hampers coordination , on the other. An important question is whether competitive pressures, such as described by free mobility and free entry, lead to an efficient and stable organization of the society into possibly several self-sufficient groups. This paper discusses theoretical approaches to this question as well as recent empirical studies.
{"title":"The stability of group formation","authors":"G. Demange","doi":"10.3917/REDP.274.0495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REDP.274.0495","url":null,"abstract":"In a large range of political and economic situations, the formation of coordinated groups is driven by two opposite forces: increasing returns to size on the one hand, the heterogeneity of preferences, which hampers coordination , on the other. An important question is whether competitive pressures, such as described by free mobility and free entry, lead to an efficient and stable organization of the society into possibly several self-sufficient groups. This paper discusses theoretical approaches to this question as well as recent empirical studies.","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"20 1","pages":"495-516"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73484434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Angus Deaton, distingue en 2015 par le Prix en sciences economiques de la Sveriges Riksbank en l'honneur d'Alfred Nobel, a commence sa carriere en Grande-Bretagne avant de rejoindre l'Universite Princeton ou il enseigne depuis une trentaine d'annees. Il est actuellement Professeur sur la chaire Dwight D. Eisenhower of Economic and International Affairs du Departement d'Economie de cette Universite. L'academie Nobel a distingue son analyse des differents aspects de la consommation des menages : « la consommation des biens et services joue un role essentiel pour le bien-etre des populations. La comprehension de cette relation importe en particulier pour la definition de politiques economiques et sociales appropriees. Angus Deaton a examine le lien de la consommation des menages avec le developpement economique de nos societes en etudiant sa dependance aux changements des prix, sa relation a l'epargne et aux divers types de revenu des menages. Ses analyses ont montre de quelle maniere les donnees statistiques pouvaient servir a l'analyse du bien-etre, de la pauvrete et du developpement economique ».
{"title":"Angus Deaton, prix à la mémoire d'Alfred Nobel 2015 : un maître de l'économie appliquée","authors":"F. Gardes","doi":"10.3917/REDP.273.0287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REDP.273.0287","url":null,"abstract":"Angus Deaton, distingue en 2015 par le Prix en sciences economiques de la Sveriges Riksbank en l'honneur d'Alfred Nobel, a commence sa carriere en Grande-Bretagne avant de rejoindre l'Universite Princeton ou il enseigne depuis une trentaine d'annees. Il est actuellement Professeur sur la chaire Dwight D. Eisenhower of Economic and International Affairs du Departement d'Economie de cette Universite. L'academie Nobel a distingue son analyse des differents aspects de la consommation des menages : « la consommation des biens et services joue un role essentiel pour le bien-etre des populations. La comprehension de cette relation importe en particulier pour la definition de politiques economiques et sociales appropriees. Angus Deaton a examine le lien de la consommation des menages avec le developpement economique de nos societes en etudiant sa dependance aux changements des prix, sa relation a l'epargne et aux divers types de revenu des menages. Ses analyses ont montre de quelle maniere les donnees statistiques pouvaient servir a l'analyse du bien-etre, de la pauvrete et du developpement economique ».","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"48 1","pages":"287-305"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74130386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L’objet de cet article est d’offrir une presentation synthetique des principaux travaux theoriques et empiriques portant sur la formation des coalitions electorales et gouvernementales et utilisant comme socle methodologique la theorie des jeux cooperatifs avec ou sans utilite transferable.
{"title":"Alliances Electorales et Gouvernementales: La Contribution de la Théorie des Jeux Coopératifs à la Science Politique","authors":"M. Breton, Karine Van der Straeten","doi":"10.3917/REDP.274.0637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REDP.274.0637","url":null,"abstract":"L’objet de cet article est d’offrir une presentation synthetique des principaux travaux theoriques et empiriques portant sur la formation des coalitions electorales et gouvernementales et utilisant comme socle methodologique la theorie des jeux cooperatifs avec ou sans utilite transferable.","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"961 1","pages":"637-736"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85627656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cet article questionne le degre d’internationalisation du renminbi (RMB) – large/ international ou etroit/regional – et fournit un bilan d’etape fonde sur une revue de la litterature. Cette revue aboutit aux resultats suivants. Le succes des reformes a court terme et les progres dans les fonctions d’une monnaie internationale sont reconnus. Il existe cependant des obstacles structurels qui freinent une internationalisation large du RMB. S’ils etaient leves, le RMB pourrait composer environ 10 % des reserves de change mondiales. De plus, la taille economique d’un pays represente un seuil d’acceleration du processus, environ a 20 % du PIB mondial pour la Chine, mais n’est pas le seul moteur de l’internationalisation : la poursuite des reformes de liberalisation reste primordiale. Ces avancees dans une internationalisation large coexistent avec une influence regionale croissante de la Chine et du RMB. La place naturelle de la Chine dans le commerce ou les relations financieres de sa region, des fonctions d’une monnaie internationale mieux remplies au niveau regional et l’influence croissante du RMB sur les autres cours de change en Asie sont des arguments en faveur du caractere regional de cette monnaie. Ceci renvoie a une forme d’internationalisation moins stricte ou un degre d’internationalisation plus etroit. Au final, la forme de l’internationalisation du RMB, a ce jour, apparait complexe.
{"title":"Le degré d’internationalisation du Renminbi","authors":"Delphine Lahet","doi":"10.3917/REDP.275.0761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REDP.275.0761","url":null,"abstract":"Cet article questionne le degre d’internationalisation du renminbi (RMB) – large/ international ou etroit/regional – et fournit un bilan d’etape fonde sur une revue de la litterature. Cette revue aboutit aux resultats suivants. Le succes des reformes a court terme et les progres dans les fonctions d’une monnaie internationale sont reconnus. Il existe cependant des obstacles structurels qui freinent une internationalisation large du RMB. S’ils etaient leves, le RMB pourrait composer environ 10 % des reserves de change mondiales. De plus, la taille economique d’un pays represente un seuil d’acceleration du processus, environ a 20 % du PIB mondial pour la Chine, mais n’est pas le seul moteur de l’internationalisation : la poursuite des reformes de liberalisation reste primordiale. Ces avancees dans une internationalisation large coexistent avec une influence regionale croissante de la Chine et du RMB. La place naturelle de la Chine dans le commerce ou les relations financieres de sa region, des fonctions d’une monnaie internationale mieux remplies au niveau regional et l’influence croissante du RMB sur les autres cours de change en Asie sont des arguments en faveur du caractere regional de cette monnaie. Ceci renvoie a une forme d’internationalisation moins stricte ou un degre d’internationalisation plus etroit. Au final, la forme de l’internationalisation du RMB, a ce jour, apparait complexe.","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"11 1","pages":"761-811"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73340398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dans cette contribution, nous avons rassemble des donnees chiffrees dans une perspective d’amelioration de la connaissance du Parlement et des parlementaires a travers leurs differentes missions (travail legislatif, representation et controle du gouvernement). L’analyse des faits relatifs aux effectifs, aux caracteristiques des representants et a leur activite d’une part et celle des budgets des assemblees d’autre part revelent un certain nombre d’evolutions. On constate tout d’abord une diminution en termes reels de la masse des indemnites parlementaires qui s’accompagne d’une augmentation des depenses de secretariat parlementaire et d’un regime de retraite genereux ; ensuite une composition de l’assemblee nationale tres stable dans le temps avec tres peu de representativite et une prevalence du cumul des mandats et enfin un accroissement de l’activite parlementaire. Les evolutions dont rendent compte les faits permettent de faire apparaitre des enjeux en termes de selection (recrutement et renouvellement du personnel politique et representativite) et d’incitation au travail qui sont importants pour le bon fonctionnement des democraties representatives.
{"title":"Économie de la représentation nationale et rémunération des parlementaires français","authors":"Touria Jaaidane","doi":"10.3917/REDP.275.0913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REDP.275.0913","url":null,"abstract":"Dans cette contribution, nous avons rassemble des donnees chiffrees dans une perspective d’amelioration de la connaissance du Parlement et des parlementaires a travers leurs differentes missions (travail legislatif, representation et controle du gouvernement). L’analyse des faits relatifs aux effectifs, aux caracteristiques des representants et a leur activite d’une part et celle des budgets des assemblees d’autre part revelent un certain nombre d’evolutions. On constate tout d’abord une diminution en termes reels de la masse des indemnites parlementaires qui s’accompagne d’une augmentation des depenses de secretariat parlementaire et d’un regime de retraite genereux ; ensuite une composition de l’assemblee nationale tres stable dans le temps avec tres peu de representativite et une prevalence du cumul des mandats et enfin un accroissement de l’activite parlementaire. Les evolutions dont rendent compte les faits permettent de faire apparaitre des enjeux en termes de selection (recrutement et renouvellement du personnel politique et representativite) et d’incitation au travail qui sont importants pour le bon fonctionnement des democraties representatives.","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"49 1","pages":"913-956"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72812339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The recent empirical researches that have been carried out about the super cycles of commodity prices have led us, in this article, to return to the works that N.D. Kondratiev and S. Kuznets devoted to the issue of prices between the two World Wars. On the one hand, the long-term price cycles which had been highlighted by these two authors and which presented a periodicity of about fifty (Kondratiev) and twenty (Kuznets) years, were outlined from an analysis of the dynamics of the prices of raw materials. On the other hand, the average durations of the super cycles of the staple goods prices, that have been identified over these last years, enfold over a particularly large sequence of time (22 to 54.5 years) that includes, amongst others, the two periodicities of Kuznets and Kondratiev. This result is worth noting as, since the 1980s, most empirical contributions that have corroborated the existence of long cycles, have mostly insisted not on the presence of these two types of recurrences among the studied series, but on the presence of one and the absence of the other one. In contrast to these studies, the latest ones that have been recently carried out about the super cycles of commodity prices, invite us not to oppose Kuznets and Kondratiev but, on the contrary, to reconcile these authors regarding the issue of prices as they are both pioneers in the study of long cycles of staple goods prices.
{"title":"Cycles longs des prix des produits de base : cycles Kondratiev ou cycles Kuznets ?","authors":"Éric Bosserelle","doi":"10.3917/REDP.272.0255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REDP.272.0255","url":null,"abstract":"The recent empirical researches that have been carried out about the super cycles of commodity prices have led us, in this article, to return to the works that N.D. Kondratiev and S. Kuznets devoted to the issue of prices between the two World Wars. On the one hand, the long-term price cycles which had been highlighted by these two authors and which presented a periodicity of about fifty (Kondratiev) and twenty (Kuznets) years, were outlined from an analysis of the dynamics of the prices of raw materials. On the other hand, the average durations of the super cycles of the staple goods prices, that have been identified over these last years, enfold over a particularly large sequence of time (22 to 54.5 years) that includes, amongst others, the two periodicities of Kuznets and Kondratiev. This result is worth noting as, since the 1980s, most empirical contributions that have corroborated the existence of long cycles, have mostly insisted not on the presence of these two types of recurrences among the studied series, but on the presence of one and the absence of the other one. In contrast to these studies, the latest ones that have been recently carried out about the super cycles of commodity prices, invite us not to oppose Kuznets and Kondratiev but, on the contrary, to reconcile these authors regarding the issue of prices as they are both pioneers in the study of long cycles of staple goods prices.","PeriodicalId":44798,"journal":{"name":"REVUE D ECONOMIE POLITIQUE","volume":"8 1","pages":"255-279"},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86317971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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