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Presidential Debates and Electoral Preferences in Weakly Institutionalised Democracies: Evidence From 32 Latin American Elections 弱制度化民主国家的总统辩论和选举偏好:来自32次拉丁美洲选举的证据
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231213668
Francisco Cantú, Miguel Carreras
Previous research has shown that presidential debates have “minimal effects” on aggregate electoral preferences because they mainly reinforce people's pre-existing political preferences. However, most of what we know about the behavioural effects of debates comes from research conducted in the United States and other institutionalised democracies. We re-evaluate the effects of debates on electoral preferences by focusing on Latin American elections. Given higher levels of electoral volatility, weaker partisan brands, lower partisanship, and more personalised voter linkages, we expect that debates play a significant role in shaping vote choice in Latin America. We test these expectations by conducting an analysis of presidential debates on aggregated vote preferences in thirty-two elections across fourteen Latin American countries from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that presidential debates shape electoral preferences in countries with weakly institutionalised party systems.
先前的研究表明,总统辩论对总体选举偏好的影响“微乎其微”,因为它们主要是强化人们已有的政治偏好。然而,我们对辩论的行为影响的了解大多来自于在美国和其他制度化的民主国家进行的研究。我们通过关注拉丁美洲的选举,重新评估辩论对选举偏好的影响。鉴于拉丁美洲选举的波动性较高,党派品牌较弱,党派关系较低,选民联系更加个性化,我们预计辩论在塑造投票选择方面将发挥重要作用。我们通过对2002年至2019年14个拉丁美洲国家32次选举中关于总投票偏好的总统辩论进行分析来检验这些预期。我们的研究结果表明,在政党制度制度化较弱的国家,总统辩论会影响选举偏好。
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引用次数: 0
Researching the Gap: Women in Latin American Political Science 研究差距:拉丁美洲政治学中的女性
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231213384
Benjamin Goldfrank, Yanina Welp
This paper maps the gender balance in the discipline of political science in Latin America by examining data from 16 countries where we could find the number of female professors in political science departments (over 100 departments) as well as from 69 journals publishing political science research in Latin America and from 16 Latin Americanist journals in Canada, the United States, and Europe. We compare the proportion of female political science faculty members to the proportion of women serving as editors and as members of editorial and advisory committees for relevant academic journals. We find that a significant gender gap remains, both in political science departments and in journals, and that the gender gap is worse in journals based in Latin America than in those based outside the region.
本文通过分析来自16个国家的数据,绘制了拉丁美洲政治学学科的性别平衡图,在这些国家中,我们可以找到政治科学系(超过100个系)的女教授数量,以及来自拉丁美洲发表政治学研究的69种期刊和来自加拿大、美国和欧洲的16种拉丁美洲期刊的数据。我们比较了女性政治科学教师的比例与女性担任编辑和相关学术期刊编辑和咨询委员会成员的比例。我们发现,在政治科学院系和期刊中,仍然存在显著的性别差距,而且拉丁美洲期刊的性别差距比该地区以外的期刊更严重。
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引用次数: 0
Citizens’ Stability of Electoral Preferences in Chile Since the Social Upheaval 社会动荡以来智利公民选举偏好的稳定性
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231213885
David Altman, Juan Díaz, Eduardo Engel, Benjamín Peña
A strong oscillation of electoral preferences took place in Chile between the election of the members of the Constitutional Convention in May 2021 and the election of the members of the Constitutional Council in May 2023. This is surprising because, until the national-scale social uprising in 2019, there was a broad consensus that Chile was a highly institutionalised party system where political preferences tended to be stable. In this research note, we study how the electoral choices made by citizens shifted between both elections, using the ecological inference approach based on a Bayesian hierarchical model developed elsewhere. We find that a vast majority of the new voters that resulted from the compulsory voting policy implemented between both elections opted for centre-right to right-wing candidates. However, this evidence is insufficient to determine whether these new voters predominantly align with right-leaning ideologies or hold anti-systemic viewpoints.
在2021年5月制宪会议成员选举和2023年5月制宪委员会成员选举之间,智利的选举偏好发生了强烈的波动。这是令人惊讶的,因为在2019年全国范围的社会起义之前,人们普遍认为智利是一个高度制度化的政党制度,政治偏好往往是稳定的。在本研究报告中,我们使用基于贝叶斯层次模型的生态推理方法,研究了公民在两次选举中做出的选举选择是如何变化的。我们发现,由于两次选举之间实施的强制投票政策,绝大多数新选民选择了中右翼到右翼候选人。然而,这些证据不足以确定这些新选民是否主要与右倾意识形态结盟或持有反体制观点。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Congressional Institutionalization and Political Elites’ Renewal in Latin America Through Legislative Amateurism 从立法业余主义看拉丁美洲国会制度化与政治精英的更新
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231212571
Gabriel Levita, Cristian Márquez Romo
Legislative experience, one of the various indicators of both congressional institutionalization and political elites’ renewal, has been mostly measured by either turnover or reelection. However, in regions such as Latin America, with more volatile and less institutionalized party systems, where most careers are not stable and ambitions are not mostly static, turnover and reelection may not be accurate measures of legislative experience. This paper aims to fill this gap by assessing parliamentary experience in Latin America by means of a more accurate indicator: legislative amateurism. Using a novel dataset comprising eighteen national single or lower-chamber legislatures over almost three decades, we find that legislative amateurism is a consequence of party system institutionalization, electoral volatility, and newly implemented gender quotas. Overall, our findings suggest that weak political parties and certain electoral rules may become fertile ground for amateur legislatorś landing in Congress.
作为衡量国会制度化和政治精英更新的各种指标之一,立法经验主要是通过更换或连任来衡量的。然而,在拉丁美洲等地区,由于政党制度的不稳定和制度化程度较低,大多数职业并不稳定,抱负也不是一成不变的,更替和连任可能不是衡量立法经验的准确标准。本文旨在通过一个更准确的指标来评估拉丁美洲的议会经验来填补这一空白:立法业余主义。我们使用了一个包含近三十年来18个国家单一或下议院立法机构的新数据集,发现立法业余主义是政党制度制度化、选举波动性和新实施的性别配额的结果。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,弱势政党和某些选举规则可能成为业余立法人员进入国会的沃土。
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引用次数: 0
Lessons from a Late Adopter: Feminist Advocacy, Democratizing Reforms, and Gender Quotas in Chile 晚进者的教训:女权主义倡导、民主化改革和智利的性别配额
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-05 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231210568
Jennifer M. Piscopo, Gwynn Thomas, Peter Siavelis, Magda Hinojosa
Many Latin American and other Global South countries adopted gender quotas during democratic transitions. What explains late-adopting cases like Chile? We analyze two instances: the 2015–2016 electoral reforms, which finally introduced a 40-percent gender quota, and the 2020–2023 constitutional process, which introduced gender parity. Using a qualitative analysis that draws on 39 elite interviews, we posit that efforts to redesign national political institutions in order to address democratic deficits create transition-like moments. In turn, these moments create windows of opportunity for quota advocates. We show how quota advocates in the parties, congress, and civil society leveraged growing voter discontent to pressure their resistant colleagues and ultimately secure gender quotas (and later gender parity) as part of larger reform efforts. Our analysis of the Chilean case elevates two factors explaining quota adoption: the long arc of democratization and women's role as protagonists in electoral reforms.
许多拉丁美洲和其他全球南方国家在民主转型期间采用了性别配额。如何解释智利等较晚采用的案例?我们分析了两个例子:2015-2016年的选举改革,最终引入了40%的性别配额,以及2020-2023年的宪法进程,引入了性别平等。通过对39位精英的访谈进行定性分析,我们认为重新设计国家政治机构以解决民主赤字的努力创造了类似转型的时刻。反过来,这些时刻为配额倡导者创造了机会之窗。我们展示了各党派、国会和公民社会中的配额倡导者如何利用选民日益增长的不满情绪向他们的抵制同事施压,并最终确保性别配额(以及后来的性别平等)成为更大改革努力的一部分。我们对智利案例的分析提升了解释配额采用的两个因素:民主化的长期弧线和妇女在选举改革中作为主角的作用。
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引用次数: 0
How Presidents Answer the Call of International Capital 美国总统如何应对国际资本的召唤
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231210581
Christian Arnold, David Doyle, Nina Wiesehomeier
How do governments manage expectations from international capital keen on pressuring them into adopting market-oriented economic policies during times of crises? Studying executive communication in 267 annual state-of-the-union speeches in 12 Latin American countries between 1980 and 2014 reveals two broad options for strategic position-taking on economic policies. First, when times are dire, presidents not only talk more about the economy and less about social policy, but they also attempt to repurpose other policies as an investment in development. Second, economic turmoil encourages presidents to signal policies, which are appealing to international capital owners. However, while currency crises exert more enduring pressure, the effects of loan crises are more fleeting. Our results are particularly relevant to all who seek to understand how governments use public statements to address pressures from financial markets.
在危机时期,各国政府如何管理国际资本的期望,这些资本急于迫使政府采取以市场为导向的经济政策?通过研究1980年至2014年间12个拉美国家267次年度国情咨文演讲中的高管沟通,我们发现在经济政策上采取战略立场有两种广泛的选择。首先,当形势严峻时,总统不仅更多地谈论经济,更少谈论社会政策,而且还试图将其他政策重新定位为对发展的投资。其次,经济动荡促使总统发出对国际资本所有者有吸引力的政策信号。然而,尽管货币危机带来的压力更为持久,但贷款危机的影响更为短暂。我们的研究结果对所有想要了解政府如何利用公开声明来应对金融市场压力的人来说都特别重要。
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引用次数: 0
The 2019 Chilean Social Upheaval: A Descriptive Approach 2019年智利社会动荡:一个描述性的方法
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231203747
Loreto Cox, Ricardo González, Carmen Le Foulon
In 2019, student protests over an increase in subway fare in Chile escalated into violence and a leaderless nationwide social upheaval. This research note takes a descriptive approach that goes beyond the protester/non-protesters dichotomy, because we believe we need a richer understanding of the “what, who, and how” of citizens around this outbreak. Based on a survey fielded amidst the upheaval, we distinguish protesters by intensity, and non-protesters by their position towards the upheaval. As expected, protesters tend to be young and educated. Strong protesters are more left-wing, interested in politics, and more participative, including electorally. They endorse democracy but are critical of its functioning, and more likely to justify illegal/violent actions as a means for social change. Inequality appears as a cross-cutting concern, even among opponents, but strong protesters are more distrustful of its sources and of the rich themselves. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings.
2019年,智利学生抗议地铁票价上涨的抗议活动升级为暴力和一场无领导的全国性社会动荡。这份研究报告采用了一种描述性的方法,超越了抗议者/非抗议者的二分法,因为我们认为,我们需要更深入地了解这次疫情中公民的“什么,谁,以及如何”。根据在动乱中进行的一项调查,我们根据抗议者的强度来区分抗议者,根据他们对动乱的立场来区分非抗议者。不出所料,抗议者往往是受过教育的年轻人。强烈的抗议者更左翼,对政治感兴趣,更积极参与,包括选举。他们支持民主,但对其运作持批评态度,更有可能将非法/暴力行为视为社会变革的手段。不平等似乎是一个跨领域的问题,即使在反对者中也是如此,但强烈的抗议者对其来源和富人本身更加不信任。最后,我们将讨论这些发现的含义。
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引用次数: 0
State Responses to Autonomy Demands: Indigenous Movements and Regional Threats in Bolivia and Ecuador 国家对自治要求的回应:玻利维亚和厄瓜多尔的土著运动和地区威胁
IF 1.3 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-10 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231183453
Carla Alberti, S. Mattiace
In this paper, we examine the political factors that explain state responses to demands for indigenous territorial autonomy in Ecuador and Bolivia. Specifically, we aim to explain why the 2009 Bolivian constitution limited indigenous territorial autonomy to the departmental level, not allowing indigenous peoples to establish autonomous regions that lay beyond a single departmental jurisdiction, whereas the 2008 Ecuadorian constitution allows indigenous jurisdictions to exceed provincial boundaries. We argue that, in Bolivia, a strong conservative autonomy movement led by the country's eastern departments forced state officials to negotiate with regional elites, thus limiting the window of opportunity for indigenous movements and their allies to demand territorial autonomy. In the absence of a strong territorialized threat in Ecuador, indigenous movements and their allies had larger windows of opportunity to press their claims for territorial autonomy. This study contributes to comparative research on how states have simultaneously affirmed and limited indigenous autonomy.
在本文中,我们研究了解释厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚对土著领土自治要求的国家反应的政治因素。具体来说,我们的目标是解释为什么2009年玻利维亚宪法将土著领土自治权限制在省一级,不允许土著人民建立超越单一部门管辖范围的自治区,而2008年厄瓜多尔宪法允许土著司法管辖区超越省边界。我们认为,在玻利维亚,由该国东部省份领导的一场强大的保守自治运动迫使州政府官员与地区精英进行谈判,从而限制了土著运动及其盟友要求领土自治的机会之窗。在厄瓜多尔没有强大的领土威胁的情况下,土著运动及其盟友有更大的机会来要求领土自治。本研究有助于比较研究各国如何同时肯定和限制原住民自治。
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引用次数: 0
Direct Democracy in the Hands of the Opposition Under Alternating Ideological Coalitions in Uruguay (1985–2022) 乌拉圭意识形态交替联盟下反对派手中的直接民主(1985-2022)
IF 1.3 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-06-26 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231183454
F. Antía, D. Vairo
Uruguay stands out as an exceptional case for having a vibrant party system, stable democracy, and frequent use of direct democracy mechanisms (MDDs). Previous research has explained the use of MDDs as a means of opposing centre-right governments, but it has failed to explain the subsequent use of these mechanisms during the period of alternation between the major ideological blocs in government after 2005. We make an empirical contribution by describing the practice of direct democracy actions and explaining their fate through a qualitative comparative analysis that assesses how well the theoretical expectations proposed by Altman are borne out in the Uruguayan case in the latest period. We conclude that the politics of direct democracy change when ideological blocs alternate in government and that direct democracy initiatives fail due to the lack of lobbying power, high government approval rates, or non-concurrency of the vote with the presidential election in the context of a positive economic environment.
乌拉圭是一个例外,因为它有一个充满活力的政党制度、稳定的民主和经常使用直接民主机制。先前的研究已经解释了使用MDDs作为反对中右翼政府的一种手段,但它未能解释2005年后政府中主要意识形态集团之间交替期间这些机制的后续使用。我们通过描述直接民主行动的实践,并通过定性比较分析来解释它们的命运,以评估奥尔特曼提出的理论期望在最近一段时间内在乌拉圭的情况下得到了多大程度的证实,从而做出了实证贡献。我们得出的结论是,当意识形态集团在政府中交替时,直接民主的政治就会发生变化,而直接民主倡议的失败是由于缺乏游说能力、政府支持率高,或者在积极的经济环境下,投票与总统选举不同时进行。
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引用次数: 0
From Economic to Political Power: Economic Elites and Policymaking During Times of Crisis 从经济权力到政治权力:危机时期的经济精英与政策制定
IF 1.3 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231180897
L. García-Montoya, P. Manzi
The shared crisis brought on by COVID-19 offers an opportunity to study how economic elites attempt to shape policy responses. In this article, we inquire about the conditions under which economic elites shaped containment and business support measures in Latin America. We argue that wealthier and better-organised elites are more likely to shape policies because they have increased access to policymakers. To test this, we combine regression analysis with three case studies: Chile, Mexico, and Peru. Our quantitative findings align with our expectations regarding containment measures and present mixed results for pro-business policies. Case studies illustrate how elites attempted to influence policy, highlighting the centrality of access to the Executive and the importance of distinguishing between institutionalised or personalised access. The degree to which policy responses aligned with elite preferences varied according to the nature of the ties: ranging from the most alignment in Chile to the least in Peru.
新冠肺炎带来的共同危机提供了一个研究经济精英如何试图制定政策应对措施的机会。在这篇文章中,我们探讨了拉丁美洲经济精英形成遏制和商业支持措施的条件。我们认为,更富有、更有组织的精英更有可能制定政策,因为他们有更多的机会接触决策者。为了验证这一点,我们将回归分析与三个案例研究相结合:智利、墨西哥和秘鲁。我们的定量调查结果与我们对遏制措施的预期一致,并为支持商业的政策带来了喜忧参半的结果。案例研究说明了精英们如何试图影响政策,强调了与行政部门接触的中心地位,以及区分制度化或个性化接触的重要性。政策回应与精英偏好的一致程度因关系的性质而异:从智利的一致程度最高到秘鲁的一致程度最低。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Politics in Latin America
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