Pub Date : 2024-05-23DOI: 10.1177/1866802x241254400
George Tsebelis, Edwin Atilano-Robles
This research investigates the reasons for the overwhelming frequency of constitutional amendments in Mexico despite the widely held academic views of its constitution's rigidity. The article introduces a novel model highlighting the core of the Mexican Constitution. This model serves as a foundational lens to understand the interplay between political institutions, preferences of political actors, and amendment provisions. The application of this model attributes the frequency of amendments to three different reasons: first, the length and inconsistency of the Mexican Constitution; second, the institutional requirements for amendments; third, the political consensus prevailing in the Mexican political scene (crucial instances, such as the onset of multipartyism with concertacesión and pivotal reforms to Articles 27 and 73, offer deeper context) makes amendments feasible. A comprehensive analysis of the 68 constitutional amendments from 2000 to 2013 corroborates these expectations concerning institutional thresholds, coalition dynamics, and amendment significance.
{"title":"Why Are Constitutional Amendments in Mexico so Frequent?","authors":"George Tsebelis, Edwin Atilano-Robles","doi":"10.1177/1866802x241254400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x241254400","url":null,"abstract":"This research investigates the reasons for the overwhelming frequency of constitutional amendments in Mexico despite the widely held academic views of its constitution's rigidity. The article introduces a novel model highlighting the core of the Mexican Constitution. This model serves as a foundational lens to understand the interplay between political institutions, preferences of political actors, and amendment provisions. The application of this model attributes the frequency of amendments to three different reasons: first, the length and inconsistency of the Mexican Constitution; second, the institutional requirements for amendments; third, the political consensus prevailing in the Mexican political scene (crucial instances, such as the onset of multipartyism with concertacesión and pivotal reforms to Articles 27 and 73, offer deeper context) makes amendments feasible. A comprehensive analysis of the 68 constitutional amendments from 2000 to 2013 corroborates these expectations concerning institutional thresholds, coalition dynamics, and amendment significance.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141105360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-06DOI: 10.1177/1866802x241250034
D. Luján, Federico Acosta y Lara
Latin American democracies have been characterised as the product of personalistic leaders relying on their unique qualities to achieve and maintain political power. However, this characterisation has lacked conceptual and empirical development since the term “personalism” has been used to account simultaneously for a particular type of electoral appeal seeking to mobilise and persuade voters and for the concentration of power in a single political leader. This article advances in conceptualising electoral personalism as a strategy followed by political elites appealing to voters based on the personal characteristics of leaders and candidates, distinguishing it from personalisation as the concentration of power in a single leader. Based on statistical analysis, we propose two novel indicators of electoral personalism and assess its prevalence among Latin American countries. The article also advances in exploring its political, economic, and social determinants at the aggregate and individual levels.
{"title":"Assessing Electoral Personalism in Latin American Presidential Elections","authors":"D. Luján, Federico Acosta y Lara","doi":"10.1177/1866802x241250034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x241250034","url":null,"abstract":"Latin American democracies have been characterised as the product of personalistic leaders relying on their unique qualities to achieve and maintain political power. However, this characterisation has lacked conceptual and empirical development since the term “personalism” has been used to account simultaneously for a particular type of electoral appeal seeking to mobilise and persuade voters and for the concentration of power in a single political leader. This article advances in conceptualising electoral personalism as a strategy followed by political elites appealing to voters based on the personal characteristics of leaders and candidates, distinguishing it from personalisation as the concentration of power in a single leader. Based on statistical analysis, we propose two novel indicators of electoral personalism and assess its prevalence among Latin American countries. The article also advances in exploring its political, economic, and social determinants at the aggregate and individual levels.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141011504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-18DOI: 10.1177/1866802x241245727
Nicolás Mimica, Patricio D. Navia
While the success of the president's legislative agenda is measured by examining the rate of passage of presidential bills (the batting average), the dominance of the president over the legislative process can be better understood by considering the share of presidential bills among bills introduced and laws enacted. Studies on the success of the president's agenda outnumber those on the dominance of the president, but the latter more directly address the debate on the proactive legislative powers of the executive. Reviewing the 13,358 bills introduced and the 2603 laws enacted in the eight legislative terms in Chile between 1990 and 2022, we associate the constitutional changes in 2005 and the electoral reform of 2015 with a decline in the legislative dominance of the president. There was a progressive decline in presidential dominance in legislative inputs and outputs long before the 2019 social upheaval weakened the Piñera government.
{"title":"Where did Hyper-Presidentialism Go? The Origin of Bills and Laws Passed in Chile, 1990–2022","authors":"Nicolás Mimica, Patricio D. Navia","doi":"10.1177/1866802x241245727","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x241245727","url":null,"abstract":"While the success of the president's legislative agenda is measured by examining the rate of passage of presidential bills (the batting average), the dominance of the president over the legislative process can be better understood by considering the share of presidential bills among bills introduced and laws enacted. Studies on the success of the president's agenda outnumber those on the dominance of the president, but the latter more directly address the debate on the proactive legislative powers of the executive. Reviewing the 13,358 bills introduced and the 2603 laws enacted in the eight legislative terms in Chile between 1990 and 2022, we associate the constitutional changes in 2005 and the electoral reform of 2015 with a decline in the legislative dominance of the president. There was a progressive decline in presidential dominance in legislative inputs and outputs long before the 2019 social upheaval weakened the Piñera government.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140686908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-02DOI: 10.1177/1866802x241242807
I. Ankudinov
In this paper, we address the issue of partisan bias in compulsory voting systems. Given the current global trends – declining trust in mainstream political parties, rising support for left- and right-wing radicals, growing populism and anti-elite sentiment – we seek to determine how they manifest themselves in an environment where citizens are required to vote by law. To answer this question, a quasi-experimental design is proposed. The data show that forced activity does not affect either extreme forces support rates (from a cross-country perspective) or the rationality of their voters (from an individual-level perspective). As far as we know, this is the first attempt to generalize the role of compulsory voting in extreme politics, as well as the first one to refute this role with ample evidence.
{"title":"Assessing the Relationship Between Compulsory Voting and Over-Representation of Extreme Parties","authors":"I. Ankudinov","doi":"10.1177/1866802x241242807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x241242807","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we address the issue of partisan bias in compulsory voting systems. Given the current global trends – declining trust in mainstream political parties, rising support for left- and right-wing radicals, growing populism and anti-elite sentiment – we seek to determine how they manifest themselves in an environment where citizens are required to vote by law. To answer this question, a quasi-experimental design is proposed. The data show that forced activity does not affect either extreme forces support rates (from a cross-country perspective) or the rationality of their voters (from an individual-level perspective). As far as we know, this is the first attempt to generalize the role of compulsory voting in extreme politics, as well as the first one to refute this role with ample evidence.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140755030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-22DOI: 10.1177/1866802x241235676
Héctor M. Posada, Enrique Javier Burbano Valencia, Angie Mondragón-Mayo
Our study examines whether citizens punish political misbehavior by estimating the impact of disciplinary sanctions on the re-election of political parties in Colombian mayoral elections. Results reveal that disciplinary sanctions have no effect on the re-election of paramilitary-linked parties. However, they can have a significant negative impact on the re-election of traditional and minority parties. The lack of punishment suggests that organizations manipulate voters through persuasion mechanisms, aligned with the Schumpeterian view of political competition.
{"title":"Do Disciplinary Sanctions Affect Political Parties’ Re-election? Evidence from Colombia","authors":"Héctor M. Posada, Enrique Javier Burbano Valencia, Angie Mondragón-Mayo","doi":"10.1177/1866802x241235676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x241235676","url":null,"abstract":"Our study examines whether citizens punish political misbehavior by estimating the impact of disciplinary sanctions on the re-election of political parties in Colombian mayoral elections. Results reveal that disciplinary sanctions have no effect on the re-election of paramilitary-linked parties. However, they can have a significant negative impact on the re-election of traditional and minority parties. The lack of punishment suggests that organizations manipulate voters through persuasion mechanisms, aligned with the Schumpeterian view of political competition.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140219293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-26DOI: 10.1177/1866802x241233688
Gibrán Cruz-Martínez
This article examines four potential strategies of the Brazilian welfare system in the face of increasing liberalization and globalization since the 1970s. We test whether liberalization and economic globalization hurt the expansion of social expenditure (the efficiency hypothesis or race to the bottom hypothesis) or whether the welfare system expands as a response to the volatility caused by liberalization and globalization (compensation hypothesis). We employ time-series regression analysis to panel data from 1970 to 2015. We controlled for economic (wealth and GDP growth) and political factors (strength of the left and effective competition of parties in the lower house). We identify different strategies followed by the welfare system through the period analyzed. However, two strategies are dominant in the long run: A neoliberal strategy when the impact of globalization is considered (efficiency hypothesis) and an embedded neoliberal strategy when the effect of liberalization is pondered (compensation hypothesis).
{"title":"Globalization and Liberalization in Social Policy Expansion: Testing the Compensation and Efficiency Hypotheses in Brazil","authors":"Gibrán Cruz-Martínez","doi":"10.1177/1866802x241233688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x241233688","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines four potential strategies of the Brazilian welfare system in the face of increasing liberalization and globalization since the 1970s. We test whether liberalization and economic globalization hurt the expansion of social expenditure (the efficiency hypothesis or race to the bottom hypothesis) or whether the welfare system expands as a response to the volatility caused by liberalization and globalization (compensation hypothesis). We employ time-series regression analysis to panel data from 1970 to 2015. We controlled for economic (wealth and GDP growth) and political factors (strength of the left and effective competition of parties in the lower house). We identify different strategies followed by the welfare system through the period analyzed. However, two strategies are dominant in the long run: A neoliberal strategy when the impact of globalization is considered (efficiency hypothesis) and an embedded neoliberal strategy when the effect of liberalization is pondered (compensation hypothesis).","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140428247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-31DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231223754
Artur Zimerman
This paper explores the violence stemming from food riots in Latin American countries that have been triggered by recurring food crises in the twenty-first century, particularly impacting impoverished rural populations. The marginalized sectors of emerging countries, whose demands for basic rights such as the right to food go unaddressed by the State, may resort to protests that can escalate into confrontations. The recurrent food crises exacerbate the struggle to meet the basic needs of those who are unable to subsist regularly. This research focuses on a region that has received less scholarly attention compared to Africa and Asia, and examines indicators such as land grabbing, climate change, demographic pressures, political polarization, as independent variables to elucidate the association with food riot occurrences. The collected data and statistical analysis confirm the hypotheses, although further studies are required to enhance the performance of certain indicators.
{"title":"The Agrarian Conflicts and Food Crises Nexus in Contemporary Latin America","authors":"Artur Zimerman","doi":"10.1177/1866802x231223754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x231223754","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the violence stemming from food riots in Latin American countries that have been triggered by recurring food crises in the twenty-first century, particularly impacting impoverished rural populations. The marginalized sectors of emerging countries, whose demands for basic rights such as the right to food go unaddressed by the State, may resort to protests that can escalate into confrontations. The recurrent food crises exacerbate the struggle to meet the basic needs of those who are unable to subsist regularly. This research focuses on a region that has received less scholarly attention compared to Africa and Asia, and examines indicators such as land grabbing, climate change, demographic pressures, political polarization, as independent variables to elucidate the association with food riot occurrences. The collected data and statistical analysis confirm the hypotheses, although further studies are required to enhance the performance of certain indicators.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140475613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-18DOI: 10.1177/1866802x241226986
R. Buben, Karel Kouba
Latin American democracies have gone through a series of perfect storms over the recent years. In what ways have these challenges transformed the institutional infrastructure of democracy? How have institutional reforms impacted the democratic prospects? This review article analyzes four recent edited volumes that approach the problems of institutional change against the backdrop of the multiple crises unfolding throughout the region. It describes two modes through which the reforms of political institutions have had an ambivalent or outright negative effect on the quality of democracy, and assesses the resilience of political institutions. Arguing for a more prominent role of informal institutions and political parties in institutional analyses, the article suggests that changes in formal political institutions have had a limited impact vis-à-vis the profound changes in political cleavages, culture wars, swift changes in religious identities and the decline of political parties.
{"title":"Democracy and Institutional Change in Times of Crises in Latin America","authors":"R. Buben, Karel Kouba","doi":"10.1177/1866802x241226986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x241226986","url":null,"abstract":"Latin American democracies have gone through a series of perfect storms over the recent years. In what ways have these challenges transformed the institutional infrastructure of democracy? How have institutional reforms impacted the democratic prospects? This review article analyzes four recent edited volumes that approach the problems of institutional change against the backdrop of the multiple crises unfolding throughout the region. It describes two modes through which the reforms of political institutions have had an ambivalent or outright negative effect on the quality of democracy, and assesses the resilience of political institutions. Arguing for a more prominent role of informal institutions and political parties in institutional analyses, the article suggests that changes in formal political institutions have had a limited impact vis-à-vis the profound changes in political cleavages, culture wars, swift changes in religious identities and the decline of political parties.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139614065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-13DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231213668
Francisco Cantú, Miguel Carreras
Previous research has shown that presidential debates have “minimal effects” on aggregate electoral preferences because they mainly reinforce people's pre-existing political preferences. However, most of what we know about the behavioural effects of debates comes from research conducted in the United States and other institutionalised democracies. We re-evaluate the effects of debates on electoral preferences by focusing on Latin American elections. Given higher levels of electoral volatility, weaker partisan brands, lower partisanship, and more personalised voter linkages, we expect that debates play a significant role in shaping vote choice in Latin America. We test these expectations by conducting an analysis of presidential debates on aggregated vote preferences in thirty-two elections across fourteen Latin American countries from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that presidential debates shape electoral preferences in countries with weakly institutionalised party systems.
{"title":"Presidential Debates and Electoral Preferences in Weakly Institutionalised Democracies: Evidence From 32 Latin American Elections","authors":"Francisco Cantú, Miguel Carreras","doi":"10.1177/1866802x231213668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x231213668","url":null,"abstract":"Previous research has shown that presidential debates have “minimal effects” on aggregate electoral preferences because they mainly reinforce people's pre-existing political preferences. However, most of what we know about the behavioural effects of debates comes from research conducted in the United States and other institutionalised democracies. We re-evaluate the effects of debates on electoral preferences by focusing on Latin American elections. Given higher levels of electoral volatility, weaker partisan brands, lower partisanship, and more personalised voter linkages, we expect that debates play a significant role in shaping vote choice in Latin America. We test these expectations by conducting an analysis of presidential debates on aggregated vote preferences in thirty-two elections across fourteen Latin American countries from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that presidential debates shape electoral preferences in countries with weakly institutionalised party systems.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136282351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-13DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231213384
Benjamin Goldfrank, Yanina Welp
This paper maps the gender balance in the discipline of political science in Latin America by examining data from 16 countries where we could find the number of female professors in political science departments (over 100 departments) as well as from 69 journals publishing political science research in Latin America and from 16 Latin Americanist journals in Canada, the United States, and Europe. We compare the proportion of female political science faculty members to the proportion of women serving as editors and as members of editorial and advisory committees for relevant academic journals. We find that a significant gender gap remains, both in political science departments and in journals, and that the gender gap is worse in journals based in Latin America than in those based outside the region.
{"title":"Researching the Gap: Women in Latin American Political Science","authors":"Benjamin Goldfrank, Yanina Welp","doi":"10.1177/1866802x231213384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802x231213384","url":null,"abstract":"This paper maps the gender balance in the discipline of political science in Latin America by examining data from 16 countries where we could find the number of female professors in political science departments (over 100 departments) as well as from 69 journals publishing political science research in Latin America and from 16 Latin Americanist journals in Canada, the United States, and Europe. We compare the proportion of female political science faculty members to the proportion of women serving as editors and as members of editorial and advisory committees for relevant academic journals. We find that a significant gender gap remains, both in political science departments and in journals, and that the gender gap is worse in journals based in Latin America than in those based outside the region.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136351286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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