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Believe in me: Parties’ Strategies During a Pandemic, Evidence from Ecuador 相信我:各方在大流行病期间的策略,来自厄瓜多尔的证据
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-11-26 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211058742
Angélica Abad Cisneros, Raúl Aldaz Peña, Diana Dávila Gordillo, Sebastián Vallejo Vera
There is a growing interest to evaluate the political aftermath of the pandemic. We study how parties attract voters under the redistributive pressure created by COVID-19, looking into the 2021 Ecuadorian elections. We classify the messages that candidates sent, evaluate if and how candidates used COVID-19 to mobilize voters, and assess how voters reacted to them. We followed 858 virtual events and gathered more than 1’575.000 tweets from candidates and their communities. We find that candidates did not place COVID-19 at the center of their strategies but used it to connect with symbolic messages about the capabilities of parties and candidates. Twitter users had a limited engagement with COVID-19-related content. These findings nuance our expectations of the pandemic. COVID-19 was only an element rather than the core of electoral strategies. Our empirical approach can be easily extended to other cases where in-person events are still limited.
人们越来越有兴趣评估大流行病的政治后果。我们以2021年厄瓜多尔选举为例,研究政党如何在新冠肺炎造成的再分配压力下吸引选民。我们对候选人发送的信息进行分类,评估候选人是否以及如何利用COVID-19动员选民,并评估选民对他们的反应。我们关注了858个虚拟活动,并从候选人及其社区收集了超过157.5万条推文。我们发现,候选人没有将COVID-19置于其战略的中心,而是利用它与有关政党和候选人能力的象征性信息联系起来。推特用户对covid -19相关内容的参与度有限。这些发现改变了我们对大流行的预期。COVID-19只是选举战略的一个要素,而不是核心。我们的经验方法可以很容易地扩展到现场事件仍然有限的其他情况。
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引用次数: 2
Governing a Pandemic: Assessing the Role of Collaboration on Latin American Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis 治理大流行:评估合作在拉丁美洲应对COVID-19危机中的作用
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-29 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211049250
J. Cyr, Matías Bianchi, L. González, A. Perini
How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were some Latin American countries more successful at containing the pandemic's most devastating health outcomes? We argue that national governments that were more collaborative in their response to COVID-19 were more successful in reducing death rates. Our original dataset offers a novel attempt to operationalise collaborative governance (CG). We undertake simple statistical tests to measure the relationship between CG and COVID-19-related mortality rates in Latin America. We then choose three case studies to assess whether collaboration was meaningful in practice. Initial evidence suggests governments that pursued CG were more effective at containing mortality rates early on in the pandemic. The collaboration helped to foster cooperation over resources; buy time to prepare for a potential case surge; and produce a unified message regarding what citizens should do to prevent viral spread.
政府如何应对复杂的跨部门问题,如COVID-19大流行?为什么一些拉丁美洲国家更成功地遏制了大流行最具破坏性的健康后果?我们认为,在应对COVID-19方面更具合作精神的国家政府在降低死亡率方面更成功。我们的原始数据集为协作治理(CG)的运作提供了一种新颖的尝试。我们进行了简单的统计测试,以衡量CG与拉丁美洲covid -19相关死亡率之间的关系。然后,我们选择三个案例研究来评估合作在实践中是否有意义。初步证据表明,在大流行的早期,实施CG的政府在控制死亡率方面更有效。这一合作有助于促进资源合作;争取时间为可能出现的病例激增做准备;并就公民应该做些什么来防止病毒传播发出统一的信息。
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引用次数: 9
Race and Campaign Resources: Candidate Identification Numbers in Brazil 种族和竞选资源:巴西的候选人识别号码
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-27 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211052625
A. Janusz, C. Sells
Party elites may hinder racial and ethnic minorities from winning public office by withholding resources. Prior studies have explored the distribution of money, media access, and party-list positions. In Brazil, party elites provide each candidate with a unique identification number. Voters must enter their preferred candidate’s identification number into an electronic voting machine to register their support. In this article, we replicate and extend Bueno and Dunning’s (2017) analysis of candidate identification numbers. They conclude that party elites do not provide white candidates with superior identification numbers than non-whites. We contend that assessing intraparty variation is theoretically and methodologically warranted. Using party fixed effects, we find that party elites provide non-white candidates with worse identification numbers than whites. We demonstrate that our findings are generalisable using data from other elections. Moreover, we show that party elites also withhold advantageous numbers from women and political novices.
党内精英可能会通过扣留资源来阻碍种族和少数民族赢得公职。先前的研究探讨了资金分配、媒体访问和政党名单位置。在巴西,政党精英为每位候选人提供唯一的身份证号码。选民必须在电子投票机中输入他们喜欢的候选人的身份号码,以登记他们的支持。在本文中,我们复制并扩展了Bueno和Dunning(2017)对候选识别号的分析。他们得出的结论是,党内精英不会为白人候选人提供比非白人更高的身份证号码。我们认为,评估党内变化在理论上和方法上都是有道理的。利用政党固定效应,我们发现政党精英为非白人候选人提供的身份号码比白人更差。我们使用其他选举的数据证明了我们的发现是普遍的。此外,我们还表明,党内精英也对女性和政治新手隐瞒了有利的人数。
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引用次数: 0
Brazil’s Stealth Military Intervention 巴西的秘密军事干预
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-06 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211039860
Karabekir Akkoyunlu, José Antonio Lima
Between 2016 and 2020, a group of activist generals successfully plotted the Brazilian military's gradual return to the political center stage with powers unseen since the dictatorship. They achieved this without formally breaking the law, suspending the democratic process or overthrowing the government. We call this a “stealth intervention,” an incremental yet systematic attempt to redesign politics without causing a rupture, that fits neither in the existing typology of coups nor in the literature on democratic backsliding. We argue that Brazil’s stealth intervention, built upon the military’s existing tutelary prerogatives and driven by an unreformed praetorian worldview that resurfaced amidst a sustained crisis of democracy, challenges the prevalent view of the armed forces as a reactive force that intervenes in civilian politics only when its institutional interests are threatened. Finally, we show that democratic backsliding in Brazil started under Bolsonaro’s predecessor, Michel Temer, and point to the generals’ understudied role in this process.
在2016年至2020年期间,一群激进的将军成功地策划了巴西军方逐步回归政治中心舞台的行动,其权力自独裁统治以来从未见过。他们在没有正式违反法律、暂停民主进程或推翻政府的情况下实现了这一目标。我们称其为“秘密干预”,一种渐进式的系统性尝试,旨在重新设计政治而不造成破裂,既不符合现有的政变类型学,也不符合有关民主倒退的文献。我们认为,巴西的秘密干预建立在军方现有的保护特权之上,并受到未经改革的禁卫军世界观的驱动,这种世界观在持续的民主危机中重新浮出水面,挑战了武装部队作为被动力量的普遍观点,只有在其机构利益受到威胁时才会干预平民政治。最后,我们表明,巴西的民主倒退始于博尔索纳罗的前任米歇尔·特梅尔(Michel Temer),并指出将军们在这一过程中的作用尚未得到充分研究。
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引用次数: 6
Do Non-State Actors Influence Climate Change Policy? Evidence from the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contributions for COP21 非国家行为体影响气候变化政策吗?来自巴西COP21国家自主贡献的证据
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211034187
E. E. Cia Alves, Rodrigo Barros de Albuquerque, Marcos Alan S. V. Ferreira, C. Monteiro
Participation in democratic regimes has been a central issue in foreign policy (FP) studies. This article seeks to contribute to the empirical discussion about FP participation through the analysis of the public consultation process conducted by the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs with non-state actors in the context of the preparations for the Paris Climate Agreement (2015). We employed automated text analysis using Python and R qualifying open responses submitted to the questionnaire launched at the first round of the consultations process and comparing them to the official document presented by Brazil establishing its own carbon emission targets. We found that the Brazilian academia members had a relevant influence on the content of the final document presented by Brazil, strengthening the literature on the importance of the epistemic community to environmental politics and raising new questions on the paths of foreign policy influence.
参与民主制度一直是外交政策研究的核心问题。本文试图通过分析巴西外交部在《巴黎气候协定》(2015)筹备过程中与非国家行为者进行的公众咨询过程,为FP参与的实证讨论做出贡献。我们使用Python和R对第一轮磋商过程中启动的问卷进行了自动文本分析,并将其与巴西提出的制定其碳排放目标的官方文件进行了比较。我们发现,巴西学术界成员对巴西提交的最终文件的内容产生了相关影响,加强了关于认识共同体对环境政治重要性的文献,并对外交政策影响的路径提出了新的问题。
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引用次数: 1
A Tale of Two Pandemics: Economic Inequality and Support for Containment Measures in Peru 两大流行病的故事:秘鲁的经济不平等和对遏制措施的支持
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-11 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211035393
Miguel Carreras, Sofia B. Vera, G. Visconti
Research suggests that the coronavirus pandemic disproportionately affected poor communities. However, relatively little is known about how this differential impact affected support for, and compliance with, COVID-19 lockdown policies. This article examines the relationship between socioeconomic inequalities and public opinion towards COVID-19 containment measures in Peru. Despite the strict quarantine measures adopted by the government of Peru, the country struggled to contain the spread of the disease. We designed and implemented a nationally representative survey in Peru and found that economically vulnerable sectors are more likely to oppose the quarantine and are more likely to defy the stay-at-home recommendations to leave home and go to work. Our contribution highlights that poor citizens’ housing and economic conditions can explain why the poor are more likely to react negatively to COVID-19 lockdown policies.
研究表明,冠状病毒大流行对贫困社区的影响尤为严重。然而,对于这种差异影响如何影响对COVID-19封锁政策的支持和遵守,人们知之甚少。本文探讨了秘鲁社会经济不平等与公众对COVID-19遏制措施的看法之间的关系。尽管秘鲁政府采取了严格的隔离措施,但该国仍在努力控制疾病的传播。我们在秘鲁设计并实施了一项具有全国代表性的调查,发现经济上脆弱的部门更有可能反对隔离,更有可能无视呆在家里的建议,离开家去上班。我们的研究强调,贫困公民的住房和经济状况可以解释为什么穷人更有可能对COVID-19封锁政策做出负面反应。
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引用次数: 4
Constitutions and Gender Equality in Chile and Argentina 智利和阿根廷的宪法和两性平等
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211024245
Priscilla A. Lambert, Druscilla L. Scribner
Gender equality provisions have become nearly standard in constitutional design for new democracies. How do such provisions affect the ability of women’s rights advocates to achieve social change? To address this question, we compare the political use (legislation, policy, and judicial interpretation) of these provisions in Chile and Argentina, countries that differ with respect to how they have constitutionalised gender rights. The comparative analysis demonstrates how gender-specific constitutional provisions provide a legal basis and legitimacy for women’s rights advocates to advance new policy, protect policy gains, and pursue rights-based cases through the courts.
两性平等条款几乎已成为新民主国家宪法设计的标准。这些规定如何影响妇女权利倡导者实现社会变革的能力?为了解决这个问题,我们比较了智利和阿根廷对这些条款的政治使用(立法、政策和司法解释),这两个国家在如何将性别权利宪法化方面存在差异。比较分析表明,针对性别的宪法条款如何为妇女权利倡导者推进新政策、保护政策成果和通过法院审理基于权利的案件提供法律基础和合法性。
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引用次数: 0
Do Multi-Party Municipal Councils Improve Local Governance? Municipal Councillors’ Opinions in El Salvador 多党制市政委员会能改善地方治理吗?萨尔瓦多市议员的意见
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211015506
Abby Córdova, Annabella España-Nájera
As decentralisation reforms devolved greater responsibilities to local governments, improving local governance has become central to strengthening democracy. With the promise of increasing citizen representation and government transparency at the local level, in 2015 El Salvador implemented a new electoral system. The new system allowed for the election of opposition parties in municipal councils for the first time. In the context of El Salvador, we examine how opposition parties’ numerical representation influences the views of governing and opposition party members about multi-party councils’ effectiveness to improve local governance. To test our hypotheses, we rely on data from an original elite survey of 303 municipal councillors in 101 municipalities, which we complement with qualitative information. Contrary to what the literature suggests, we do not find evidence that a stronger opposition leads to more negative evaluations among members of governing parties, notwithstanding the country’s polarised party system.
随着权力下放改革将更大的责任下放给地方政府,改善地方治理已成为加强民主的核心。由于承诺在地方一级增加公民代表性和政府透明度,萨尔瓦多于2015年实施了新的选举制度。新制度首次允许市议会选举反对党。在萨尔瓦多的背景下,我们研究了反对党的人数代表性如何影响执政党和反对党成员对多党委员会改善地方治理有效性的看法。为了检验我们的假设,我们依赖于对101个市镇的303名市议员进行的原始精英调查的数据,我们用定性信息补充了这些数据。与文献表明的相反,我们没有发现证据表明,尽管该国的政党制度两极分化,但更强大的反对派会导致执政党成员的负面评价更高。
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引用次数: 0
The Politics of Temporary Protection Schemes: The Role of Mexico’s TVRH in Reproducing Precarity among Central American Migrants 临时保护计划的政治:墨西哥的TVRH在中美洲移民中再现不稳定的作用
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211027886
Carla Angulo-Pasel
Using Mexico’s Tarjeta de Visitante por Razones Humanitarias (TVRH) as a primary case study, this article examines how states can use temporary protection schemes as border security measures while claiming to provide protection. Although the TVRH offers a legal pathway and status to move within Mexico, it equally restricts certain rights due to its temporary nature. It becomes a form of differential inclusion by which the state has the right to be able to “exclude and define the limits” of a particular population but also claim inclusion on humanitarian grounds. Despite the claim of protecting migrants, the application of this regular status can essentially become a form of interdiction, which sustains the political framing of migration as ultimately a “threat” that needs to be governed. On the ground, migrants with these temporary regular statuses occupy a liminal space and live a precarious existence similar to those migrants who do not possess a legal status at all. This power imbalance exists more often as states prefer to grant a temporary immigration status, which ensures less responsibility and support that accompanies more rights and protections. Based on policy analysis and field work, the article will examine the TVRH, the processes for obtaining this legal status, and the consequences for irregular migrants.
本文以墨西哥的TVRH (Tarjeta de Visitante por Razones humanitarian)为主要案例,探讨国家如何在声称提供保护的同时,将临时保护计划用作边境安全措施。虽然TVRH提供了在墨西哥境内移动的合法途径和地位,但由于其临时性质,它同样限制了某些权利。它成为一种差别包容的形式,通过这种包容,国家有权“排除和界定”特定人群,但也可以基于人道主义理由要求包容。尽管声称保护移民,但这种正常身份的申请实质上可能成为一种封锁,从而维持移民的政治框架,最终将其视为需要治理的“威胁”。在当地,拥有这些临时正规身份的移民占据了一个有限的空间,过着一种不稳定的生活,类似于那些根本没有合法身份的移民。这种权力不平衡更经常出现,因为各州更倾向于给予临时移民身份,这确保了更少的责任和支持,伴随着更多的权利和保护。根据政策分析和实地工作,本文将审查TVRH,获得这种法律地位的过程,以及对非正规移民的后果。
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引用次数: 0
The Nicaragua Protest Crisis in 2018–2019: Assessing the Logic of Government Responses to Protests 2018-2019年尼加拉瓜抗议危机:评估政府应对抗议的逻辑
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-07 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X211024246
Graig R. Klein, Jose Cuesta, C. Chagalj
Despite constant monitoring, we lack a good explanation for the 2018–2019 protest crisis in Nicaragua. The escalation of protests, repression, duration, and the death toll are surprising. Applying a novel political and economic cost framework, we benchmark Nicaragua’s historical and recent political protests and explain the Ortega administration’s responses, thus providing a rich case (with comparative data for context) that makes sense of this extraordinary period of protest. The empirical analysis buttresses our qualitative case study of protest motivations and tactics and extreme state violence that define four phases of the conflict. The combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses creates one of the first robust studies of protest–response dynamics of this protest crisis. We conclude that these protests are unique with respect to previous protests in the country and the region and that government repression was a logical response in some phases but was inconsistently applied.
尽管持续监测,但我们对尼加拉瓜2018-2019年的抗议危机缺乏一个很好的解释。抗议升级、镇压、持续时间和死亡人数令人惊讶。运用一个新的政治和经济成本框架,我们以尼加拉瓜历史上和最近的政治抗议为基准,并解释了奥尔特加政府的反应,从而提供了一个丰富的案例(与背景的比较数据),使这一特殊时期的抗议有意义。实证分析支持了我们对抗议动机、策略和极端国家暴力的定性案例研究,这些研究定义了冲突的四个阶段。定性和定量分析的结合创造了抗议危机的抗议-反应动力学的第一个强有力的研究之一。我们的结论是,与该国和该地区以前的抗议活动相比,这些抗议活动是独特的,政府的镇压在某些阶段是合乎逻辑的反应,但并没有始终如一地实施。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Journal of Politics in Latin America
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