Pub Date : 2023-05-31DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231176572
Edgar FRANCO-VIVANCO, Cesar B. Martinez-Alvarez, I. F. Martínez
Around the world, non-state armed actors have been linked to the illegal extraction of energy resources. This research note explores the case of Mexico. Anecdotal evidence suggests that criminal groups have been gaining control of energy infrastructure across the country. At the same time, oil tapping has been directly associated with criminal violence. Yet, there has not been a systematic effort to causally identify the relationship between illegal extraction and criminal violence. In this research note, we use the exogenous variation in international oil prices—as a measure of potential profits—to assess the effect of access to energy infrastructure on criminal-related violence. Our results show that increases in oil prices are associated with higher levels of homicide rates in municipalities with pipelines and in neighboring municipalities. Specifically, a standard price increase during this period is associated with approximately 20% more homicides per year in municipalities with gasoline pipelines. A locality-level analysis suggests a non-linear distance effect. Finally, we also explore criminal fragmentation as the mechanism connecting access to resources and violence. We find that access to pipelines is associated with higher presence of organized crime groups, but not necessarily with more fragmentation.
{"title":"Oil Theft and Violence in Mexico","authors":"Edgar FRANCO-VIVANCO, Cesar B. Martinez-Alvarez, I. F. Martínez","doi":"10.1177/1866802X231176572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X231176572","url":null,"abstract":"Around the world, non-state armed actors have been linked to the illegal extraction of energy resources. This research note explores the case of Mexico. Anecdotal evidence suggests that criminal groups have been gaining control of energy infrastructure across the country. At the same time, oil tapping has been directly associated with criminal violence. Yet, there has not been a systematic effort to causally identify the relationship between illegal extraction and criminal violence. In this research note, we use the exogenous variation in international oil prices—as a measure of potential profits—to assess the effect of access to energy infrastructure on criminal-related violence. Our results show that increases in oil prices are associated with higher levels of homicide rates in municipalities with pipelines and in neighboring municipalities. Specifically, a standard price increase during this period is associated with approximately 20% more homicides per year in municipalities with gasoline pipelines. A locality-level analysis suggests a non-linear distance effect. Finally, we also explore criminal fragmentation as the mechanism connecting access to resources and violence. We find that access to pipelines is associated with higher presence of organized crime groups, but not necessarily with more fragmentation.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"15 1","pages":"217 - 236"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41592289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-06DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231160801
R. Maschietto, A. Tomesani
In this article, we assess the effects of and responses to the Covid-19 pandemic in the Brazilian peripheries by relying on resilience theory and the experiences of peripheral actors during the first year of the pandemic. We consider these experiences to examine whether the initial responses to the crisis had the potential to bring about long-term positive change. We rely on thematic analysis of 80 interviews with leaders of grassroots organizations of different nature all over the country between October 2020 and January 2021. We argue that we cannot speak of resilience and system change unless we engage with the voices of those most affected by adversity. While in its first year the pandemic brought important traces of structural violence to the surface, providing an opportunity for structural change, peripheral views at that moment cast doubts about the extent to which those changes could lead to long-term structural changes.
{"title":"Questioning Resilience: An Examination of the Effects of and Responses to the Covid-19 Pandemic in the Peripheries of Brazil","authors":"R. Maschietto, A. Tomesani","doi":"10.1177/1866802X231160801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X231160801","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we assess the effects of and responses to the Covid-19 pandemic in the Brazilian peripheries by relying on resilience theory and the experiences of peripheral actors during the first year of the pandemic. We consider these experiences to examine whether the initial responses to the crisis had the potential to bring about long-term positive change. We rely on thematic analysis of 80 interviews with leaders of grassroots organizations of different nature all over the country between October 2020 and January 2021. We argue that we cannot speak of resilience and system change unless we engage with the voices of those most affected by adversity. While in its first year the pandemic brought important traces of structural violence to the surface, providing an opportunity for structural change, peripheral views at that moment cast doubts about the extent to which those changes could lead to long-term structural changes.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"15 1","pages":"115 - 137"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43344342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-02DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231159686
B. Bull, K. Hoelscher
The COVID-19 pandemic had severe impacts in Latin America, with small businesses intensely affected. Beyond its economic consequences, the pandemic also exacerbated structural flaws in some of the region's weakly institutionalised democracies, diminishing State legitimacy and expanding that of organised criminal groups. In considering how State governance from above is challenged by non-state governance from below, this article examines a “pandemic micropolitics” as seen through the lens of support to the small business sector. We outline a framework to understand co-governance in hybrid political orders during crises; and examine this using case studies of urban informal markets and the transport sector in El Salvador. In showing that the pandemic contributed to a renegotiation of co-governance between the State, criminal organisations, and business associations, we contribute to understandings of the dynamics of distributive politics and the co-governance of crisis; and the potential implications for a post-COVID-19 political economy in Latin America.
{"title":"Pandemic Micropolitics in Latin America: Small Business and the Governance of Crisis From Above and Below in El Salvador","authors":"B. Bull, K. Hoelscher","doi":"10.1177/1866802X231159686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X231159686","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic had severe impacts in Latin America, with small businesses intensely affected. Beyond its economic consequences, the pandemic also exacerbated structural flaws in some of the region's weakly institutionalised democracies, diminishing State legitimacy and expanding that of organised criminal groups. In considering how State governance from above is challenged by non-state governance from below, this article examines a “pandemic micropolitics” as seen through the lens of support to the small business sector. We outline a framework to understand co-governance in hybrid political orders during crises; and examine this using case studies of urban informal markets and the transport sector in El Salvador. In showing that the pandemic contributed to a renegotiation of co-governance between the State, criminal organisations, and business associations, we contribute to understandings of the dynamics of distributive politics and the co-governance of crisis; and the potential implications for a post-COVID-19 political economy in Latin America.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"15 1","pages":"47 - 71"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48964482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-27DOI: 10.1177/1866802X221147067
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
What prompted so many voters in Mexico to abandon the traditional parties and support MORENA and its candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador? This research relies on data from Mexico's National Electoral Study (2018). The results show that support for López Obrador is strongly associated with affective polarization and the perception that the PRI and PAN represented the same political alternative. In turn, retrospective evaluations and ideology were not associated with López Obrador's victory. This research note contributes to our understanding of Mexico's historical elections as well as to the broader literature on the Latin American left. The success of the political left in Mexico is not rooted on voters’ programmatic preferences. Similar to the decay of mainstream political parties in other Latin American countries, in 2018, Mexican voters rejected the mainstream political establishment by supporting Lopez Obrador's third bid for the Presidency.
{"title":"The AMLO Voter: Affective Polarization and the Rise of the Left in Mexico","authors":"Rodrigo Castro Cornejo","doi":"10.1177/1866802X221147067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X221147067","url":null,"abstract":"What prompted so many voters in Mexico to abandon the traditional parties and support MORENA and its candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador? This research relies on data from Mexico's National Electoral Study (2018). The results show that support for López Obrador is strongly associated with affective polarization and the perception that the PRI and PAN represented the same political alternative. In turn, retrospective evaluations and ideology were not associated with López Obrador's victory. This research note contributes to our understanding of Mexico's historical elections as well as to the broader literature on the Latin American left. The success of the political left in Mexico is not rooted on voters’ programmatic preferences. Similar to the decay of mainstream political parties in other Latin American countries, in 2018, Mexican voters rejected the mainstream political establishment by supporting Lopez Obrador's third bid for the Presidency.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"15 1","pages":"96 - 112"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49650084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-05DOI: 10.1177/1866802X221143141
A. Barrientos
Has social assistance expansion contributed to political inclusion in Latin America? The current literature favours a “policy exchange” approach, hypothesising that social assistance is an electoral asset exploited by governing coalitions. The findings from this literature are mixed. The article proposes an alternative approach emphasising political inclusion. In unequal societies where economic cooperation is regulated by institutions generating inequality and disadvantage, social assistance contributes to the political inclusion of disadvantaged groups. Analysis of Latin American Public Opinion Project data for 2010 to 2019 data finds support for this hypothesis.
{"title":"Social Assistance Expansion and Political Inclusion in Latin America","authors":"A. Barrientos","doi":"10.1177/1866802X221143141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X221143141","url":null,"abstract":"Has social assistance expansion contributed to political inclusion in Latin America? The current literature favours a “policy exchange” approach, hypothesising that social assistance is an electoral asset exploited by governing coalitions. The findings from this literature are mixed. The article proposes an alternative approach emphasising political inclusion. In unequal societies where economic cooperation is regulated by institutions generating inequality and disadvantage, social assistance contributes to the political inclusion of disadvantaged groups. Analysis of Latin American Public Opinion Project data for 2010 to 2019 data finds support for this hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"15 1","pages":"25 - 46"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47762036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-07DOI: 10.1177/1866802X221136147
Alejandro Monsiváis-Carrillo
Winning elections usually make partisan voters more politically satisfied and confident. However, if they voted for a president that actively undermines the legitimacy of democratic institutions, they will be compelled to accommodate their views and update their judgment on a selective basis. They will support the regime's performance and yet distrust the institutions denounced by the government. This claim is tested using data from a representative survey conducted in Mexico. In this country, the president is a populist leader who consistently denounces all constraints on the executive. In particular, the president frequently undermines the institutions safeguarding free and fair elections. The analysis reveals that the gap in political trust reflects the opposite reactions from partisan winners and losers to the executive's antagonizing behavior. Voters supporting the winning party are more satisfied with democracy. However, they are less likely to trust the integrity of elections than the partisan losers.
{"title":"Happy Winners, Sore Partisans? Political Trust, Partisanship, and the Populist Assault on Electoral Integrity in Mexico","authors":"Alejandro Monsiváis-Carrillo","doi":"10.1177/1866802X221136147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X221136147","url":null,"abstract":"Winning elections usually make partisan voters more politically satisfied and confident. However, if they voted for a president that actively undermines the legitimacy of democratic institutions, they will be compelled to accommodate their views and update their judgment on a selective basis. They will support the regime's performance and yet distrust the institutions denounced by the government. This claim is tested using data from a representative survey conducted in Mexico. In this country, the president is a populist leader who consistently denounces all constraints on the executive. In particular, the president frequently undermines the institutions safeguarding free and fair elections. The analysis reveals that the gap in political trust reflects the opposite reactions from partisan winners and losers to the executive's antagonizing behavior. Voters supporting the winning party are more satisfied with democracy. However, they are less likely to trust the integrity of elections than the partisan losers.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"15 1","pages":"72 - 95"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47517802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-13DOI: 10.1177/1866802X221127711
B. Brennan, Kristin Johnson, Ashlea Rundlett
This paper assesses the impact of political and fiscal accountability mechanisms on the severity and scope of human rights violations in Mexico's states during its democratic transition. First, we argue that elites in states with lower levels of electoral accountability are free of constraints that would normally result in their removal from office should they engage in human rights violations. Similarly, we argue that local elites maintain power while evading accountability when supported by transfers from the central government, and are thereby freer to use force. We find statistical support for our claims that lower levels of procedural democracy and higher levels of central transfers are associated with higher levels of human rights and physical integrity rights violations. These results are robust to subsample and numerous economic and other factors. Our findings suggest that particularly during democratic transitions, subnational institutions are salient in explaining the frequency of human rights violations.
{"title":"Human Rights During Transition: Accountability Mechanisms in Mexican States 1997–2008","authors":"B. Brennan, Kristin Johnson, Ashlea Rundlett","doi":"10.1177/1866802X221127711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X221127711","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the impact of political and fiscal accountability mechanisms on the severity and scope of human rights violations in Mexico's states during its democratic transition. First, we argue that elites in states with lower levels of electoral accountability are free of constraints that would normally result in their removal from office should they engage in human rights violations. Similarly, we argue that local elites maintain power while evading accountability when supported by transfers from the central government, and are thereby freer to use force. We find statistical support for our claims that lower levels of procedural democracy and higher levels of central transfers are associated with higher levels of human rights and physical integrity rights violations. These results are robust to subsample and numerous economic and other factors. Our findings suggest that particularly during democratic transitions, subnational institutions are salient in explaining the frequency of human rights violations.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"14 1","pages":"264 - 288"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46253263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-23DOI: 10.1177/1866802X221127712
Sofía Donoso, Ismael Puga, C. Moya, Monica M. Gerber
The COVID-19 pandemic started in Chile as the country was experiencing massive protests and a deep political crisis. Sanitary measures restricting movement and gatherings were implemented while the process of constitutional change responding to this crisis developed. In this context of conflict, we study why people continued participating in street protests despite the restrictions and the health risks involved. Using two surveys, we test key factors addressed in extant scholarship: biographical availability, perceived risks, and grievances. We find that grievances related to the pandemic were the most important factor, while biographical availability was much less relevant in the pandemic context. There is no evidence that perceived health risks mattered when deciding whether to join a street protest or not. These results suggest that under conditions of political crisis, grievances related to the administration of the pandemic can motivate political participation even when the latter put people's health at risk.
{"title":"Is it Worth the Risk? Grievances and Street Protest Participation During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chile","authors":"Sofía Donoso, Ismael Puga, C. Moya, Monica M. Gerber","doi":"10.1177/1866802X221127712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X221127712","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic started in Chile as the country was experiencing massive protests and a deep political crisis. Sanitary measures restricting movement and gatherings were implemented while the process of constitutional change responding to this crisis developed. In this context of conflict, we study why people continued participating in street protests despite the restrictions and the health risks involved. Using two surveys, we test key factors addressed in extant scholarship: biographical availability, perceived risks, and grievances. We find that grievances related to the pandemic were the most important factor, while biographical availability was much less relevant in the pandemic context. There is no evidence that perceived health risks mattered when deciding whether to join a street protest or not. These results suggest that under conditions of political crisis, grievances related to the administration of the pandemic can motivate political participation even when the latter put people's health at risk.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"14 1","pages":"338 - 362"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44802530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-07DOI: 10.1177/1866802X221124032
Andreas Schedler
During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, Mexico’s so-called drug war claimed around a quarter of a million lives. Adapting to this enduring epidemic of violence, the print media have adopted a minimalist reporting style that gives only thin, formulaic accounts of violent events. As I argue, established journalistic minimalism does more than provide little information about violence. With practised impassiveness, it frames violence in a way that creates a certain narrative: not of social actors to be understood but of natural events to be endured. Through a qualitative content analysis of over 1200 news reports, I examine the persistent force of this “natural” frame in the face of an extraordinary development: the unprecedented intrusion of political violence into the 2018 general elections, when forty-eight candidates were assassinated.
{"title":"Minimalist Storytelling: The Natural Framing of Electoral Violence by Mexican Media","authors":"Andreas Schedler","doi":"10.1177/1866802X221124032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X221124032","url":null,"abstract":"During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, Mexico’s so-called drug war claimed around a quarter of a million lives. Adapting to this enduring epidemic of violence, the print media have adopted a minimalist reporting style that gives only thin, formulaic accounts of violent events. As I argue, established journalistic minimalism does more than provide little information about violence. With practised impassiveness, it frames violence in a way that creates a certain narrative: not of social actors to be understood but of natural events to be endured. Through a qualitative content analysis of over 1200 news reports, I examine the persistent force of this “natural” frame in the face of an extraordinary development: the unprecedented intrusion of political violence into the 2018 general elections, when forty-eight candidates were assassinated.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"14 1","pages":"239 - 263"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44522351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-24DOI: 10.1177/1866802X221122295
Juan-Pablo González
How do economic conditions affect trust? In this paper, I analyze the effect of natural resource shocks on social trust in Latin American regions. To deal with the endogeneity between income and trust, I use an identification strategy that relies on the exogeneity of the international prices of commodities. I show that income shocks have a positive effect on social trust, a result that is robust to a number of checks. I present evidence that points to two mechanisms: increases in life satisfaction and a reduction in crime victimization. I do not find that inequality is moderating this effect nor that extractive commodities are detrimental to social trust. These results are consistent with the decline in social trust on the continent during the last decade of sluggish growth and economic turmoil.
{"title":"Income and Social Trust in Latin America","authors":"Juan-Pablo González","doi":"10.1177/1866802X221122295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X221122295","url":null,"abstract":"How do economic conditions affect trust? In this paper, I analyze the effect of natural resource shocks on social trust in Latin American regions. To deal with the endogeneity between income and trust, I use an identification strategy that relies on the exogeneity of the international prices of commodities. I show that income shocks have a positive effect on social trust, a result that is robust to a number of checks. I present evidence that points to two mechanisms: increases in life satisfaction and a reduction in crime victimization. I do not find that inequality is moderating this effect nor that extractive commodities are detrimental to social trust. These results are consistent with the decline in social trust on the continent during the last decade of sluggish growth and economic turmoil.","PeriodicalId":44885,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Politics in Latin America","volume":"15 1","pages":"3 - 24"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47259651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：