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Citizens’ Stability of Electoral Preferences in Chile Since the Social Upheaval 社会动荡以来智利公民选举偏好的稳定性
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231213885
David Altman, Juan Díaz, Eduardo Engel, Benjamín Peña
A strong oscillation of electoral preferences took place in Chile between the election of the members of the Constitutional Convention in May 2021 and the election of the members of the Constitutional Council in May 2023. This is surprising because, until the national-scale social uprising in 2019, there was a broad consensus that Chile was a highly institutionalised party system where political preferences tended to be stable. In this research note, we study how the electoral choices made by citizens shifted between both elections, using the ecological inference approach based on a Bayesian hierarchical model developed elsewhere. We find that a vast majority of the new voters that resulted from the compulsory voting policy implemented between both elections opted for centre-right to right-wing candidates. However, this evidence is insufficient to determine whether these new voters predominantly align with right-leaning ideologies or hold anti-systemic viewpoints.
在2021年5月制宪会议成员选举和2023年5月制宪委员会成员选举之间,智利的选举偏好发生了强烈的波动。这是令人惊讶的,因为在2019年全国范围的社会起义之前,人们普遍认为智利是一个高度制度化的政党制度,政治偏好往往是稳定的。在本研究报告中,我们使用基于贝叶斯层次模型的生态推理方法,研究了公民在两次选举中做出的选举选择是如何变化的。我们发现,由于两次选举之间实施的强制投票政策,绝大多数新选民选择了中右翼到右翼候选人。然而,这些证据不足以确定这些新选民是否主要与右倾意识形态结盟或持有反体制观点。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Congressional Institutionalization and Political Elites’ Renewal in Latin America Through Legislative Amateurism 从立法业余主义看拉丁美洲国会制度化与政治精英的更新
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231212571
Gabriel Levita, Cristian Márquez Romo
Legislative experience, one of the various indicators of both congressional institutionalization and political elites’ renewal, has been mostly measured by either turnover or reelection. However, in regions such as Latin America, with more volatile and less institutionalized party systems, where most careers are not stable and ambitions are not mostly static, turnover and reelection may not be accurate measures of legislative experience. This paper aims to fill this gap by assessing parliamentary experience in Latin America by means of a more accurate indicator: legislative amateurism. Using a novel dataset comprising eighteen national single or lower-chamber legislatures over almost three decades, we find that legislative amateurism is a consequence of party system institutionalization, electoral volatility, and newly implemented gender quotas. Overall, our findings suggest that weak political parties and certain electoral rules may become fertile ground for amateur legislatorś landing in Congress.
作为衡量国会制度化和政治精英更新的各种指标之一,立法经验主要是通过更换或连任来衡量的。然而,在拉丁美洲等地区,由于政党制度的不稳定和制度化程度较低,大多数职业并不稳定,抱负也不是一成不变的,更替和连任可能不是衡量立法经验的准确标准。本文旨在通过一个更准确的指标来评估拉丁美洲的议会经验来填补这一空白:立法业余主义。我们使用了一个包含近三十年来18个国家单一或下议院立法机构的新数据集,发现立法业余主义是政党制度制度化、选举波动性和新实施的性别配额的结果。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,弱势政党和某些选举规则可能成为业余立法人员进入国会的沃土。
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引用次数: 0
Lessons from a Late Adopter: Feminist Advocacy, Democratizing Reforms, and Gender Quotas in Chile 晚进者的教训:女权主义倡导、民主化改革和智利的性别配额
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-05 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231210568
Jennifer M. Piscopo, Gwynn Thomas, Peter Siavelis, Magda Hinojosa
Many Latin American and other Global South countries adopted gender quotas during democratic transitions. What explains late-adopting cases like Chile? We analyze two instances: the 2015–2016 electoral reforms, which finally introduced a 40-percent gender quota, and the 2020–2023 constitutional process, which introduced gender parity. Using a qualitative analysis that draws on 39 elite interviews, we posit that efforts to redesign national political institutions in order to address democratic deficits create transition-like moments. In turn, these moments create windows of opportunity for quota advocates. We show how quota advocates in the parties, congress, and civil society leveraged growing voter discontent to pressure their resistant colleagues and ultimately secure gender quotas (and later gender parity) as part of larger reform efforts. Our analysis of the Chilean case elevates two factors explaining quota adoption: the long arc of democratization and women's role as protagonists in electoral reforms.
许多拉丁美洲和其他全球南方国家在民主转型期间采用了性别配额。如何解释智利等较晚采用的案例?我们分析了两个例子:2015-2016年的选举改革,最终引入了40%的性别配额,以及2020-2023年的宪法进程,引入了性别平等。通过对39位精英的访谈进行定性分析,我们认为重新设计国家政治机构以解决民主赤字的努力创造了类似转型的时刻。反过来,这些时刻为配额倡导者创造了机会之窗。我们展示了各党派、国会和公民社会中的配额倡导者如何利用选民日益增长的不满情绪向他们的抵制同事施压,并最终确保性别配额(以及后来的性别平等)成为更大改革努力的一部分。我们对智利案例的分析提升了解释配额采用的两个因素:民主化的长期弧线和妇女在选举改革中作为主角的作用。
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引用次数: 0
How Presidents Answer the Call of International Capital 美国总统如何应对国际资本的召唤
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231210581
Christian Arnold, David Doyle, Nina Wiesehomeier
How do governments manage expectations from international capital keen on pressuring them into adopting market-oriented economic policies during times of crises? Studying executive communication in 267 annual state-of-the-union speeches in 12 Latin American countries between 1980 and 2014 reveals two broad options for strategic position-taking on economic policies. First, when times are dire, presidents not only talk more about the economy and less about social policy, but they also attempt to repurpose other policies as an investment in development. Second, economic turmoil encourages presidents to signal policies, which are appealing to international capital owners. However, while currency crises exert more enduring pressure, the effects of loan crises are more fleeting. Our results are particularly relevant to all who seek to understand how governments use public statements to address pressures from financial markets.
在危机时期,各国政府如何管理国际资本的期望,这些资本急于迫使政府采取以市场为导向的经济政策?通过研究1980年至2014年间12个拉美国家267次年度国情咨文演讲中的高管沟通,我们发现在经济政策上采取战略立场有两种广泛的选择。首先,当形势严峻时,总统不仅更多地谈论经济,更少谈论社会政策,而且还试图将其他政策重新定位为对发展的投资。其次,经济动荡促使总统发出对国际资本所有者有吸引力的政策信号。然而,尽管货币危机带来的压力更为持久,但贷款危机的影响更为短暂。我们的研究结果对所有想要了解政府如何利用公开声明来应对金融市场压力的人来说都特别重要。
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引用次数: 0
The 2019 Chilean Social Upheaval: A Descriptive Approach 2019年智利社会动荡:一个描述性的方法
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1177/1866802x231203747
Loreto Cox, Ricardo González, Carmen Le Foulon
In 2019, student protests over an increase in subway fare in Chile escalated into violence and a leaderless nationwide social upheaval. This research note takes a descriptive approach that goes beyond the protester/non-protesters dichotomy, because we believe we need a richer understanding of the “what, who, and how” of citizens around this outbreak. Based on a survey fielded amidst the upheaval, we distinguish protesters by intensity, and non-protesters by their position towards the upheaval. As expected, protesters tend to be young and educated. Strong protesters are more left-wing, interested in politics, and more participative, including electorally. They endorse democracy but are critical of its functioning, and more likely to justify illegal/violent actions as a means for social change. Inequality appears as a cross-cutting concern, even among opponents, but strong protesters are more distrustful of its sources and of the rich themselves. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings.
2019年,智利学生抗议地铁票价上涨的抗议活动升级为暴力和一场无领导的全国性社会动荡。这份研究报告采用了一种描述性的方法,超越了抗议者/非抗议者的二分法,因为我们认为,我们需要更深入地了解这次疫情中公民的“什么,谁,以及如何”。根据在动乱中进行的一项调查,我们根据抗议者的强度来区分抗议者,根据他们对动乱的立场来区分非抗议者。不出所料,抗议者往往是受过教育的年轻人。强烈的抗议者更左翼,对政治感兴趣,更积极参与,包括选举。他们支持民主,但对其运作持批评态度,更有可能将非法/暴力行为视为社会变革的手段。不平等似乎是一个跨领域的问题,即使在反对者中也是如此,但强烈的抗议者对其来源和富人本身更加不信任。最后,我们将讨论这些发现的含义。
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引用次数: 0
State Responses to Autonomy Demands: Indigenous Movements and Regional Threats in Bolivia and Ecuador 国家对自治要求的回应:玻利维亚和厄瓜多尔的土著运动和地区威胁
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-10 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231183453
Carla Alberti, S. Mattiace
In this paper, we examine the political factors that explain state responses to demands for indigenous territorial autonomy in Ecuador and Bolivia. Specifically, we aim to explain why the 2009 Bolivian constitution limited indigenous territorial autonomy to the departmental level, not allowing indigenous peoples to establish autonomous regions that lay beyond a single departmental jurisdiction, whereas the 2008 Ecuadorian constitution allows indigenous jurisdictions to exceed provincial boundaries. We argue that, in Bolivia, a strong conservative autonomy movement led by the country's eastern departments forced state officials to negotiate with regional elites, thus limiting the window of opportunity for indigenous movements and their allies to demand territorial autonomy. In the absence of a strong territorialized threat in Ecuador, indigenous movements and their allies had larger windows of opportunity to press their claims for territorial autonomy. This study contributes to comparative research on how states have simultaneously affirmed and limited indigenous autonomy.
在本文中,我们研究了解释厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚对土著领土自治要求的国家反应的政治因素。具体来说,我们的目标是解释为什么2009年玻利维亚宪法将土著领土自治权限制在省一级,不允许土著人民建立超越单一部门管辖范围的自治区,而2008年厄瓜多尔宪法允许土著司法管辖区超越省边界。我们认为,在玻利维亚,由该国东部省份领导的一场强大的保守自治运动迫使州政府官员与地区精英进行谈判,从而限制了土著运动及其盟友要求领土自治的机会之窗。在厄瓜多尔没有强大的领土威胁的情况下,土著运动及其盟友有更大的机会来要求领土自治。本研究有助于比较研究各国如何同时肯定和限制原住民自治。
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引用次数: 0
Direct Democracy in the Hands of the Opposition Under Alternating Ideological Coalitions in Uruguay (1985–2022) 乌拉圭意识形态交替联盟下反对派手中的直接民主(1985-2022)
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-26 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231183454
F. Antía, D. Vairo
Uruguay stands out as an exceptional case for having a vibrant party system, stable democracy, and frequent use of direct democracy mechanisms (MDDs). Previous research has explained the use of MDDs as a means of opposing centre-right governments, but it has failed to explain the subsequent use of these mechanisms during the period of alternation between the major ideological blocs in government after 2005. We make an empirical contribution by describing the practice of direct democracy actions and explaining their fate through a qualitative comparative analysis that assesses how well the theoretical expectations proposed by Altman are borne out in the Uruguayan case in the latest period. We conclude that the politics of direct democracy change when ideological blocs alternate in government and that direct democracy initiatives fail due to the lack of lobbying power, high government approval rates, or non-concurrency of the vote with the presidential election in the context of a positive economic environment.
乌拉圭是一个例外,因为它有一个充满活力的政党制度、稳定的民主和经常使用直接民主机制。先前的研究已经解释了使用MDDs作为反对中右翼政府的一种手段,但它未能解释2005年后政府中主要意识形态集团之间交替期间这些机制的后续使用。我们通过描述直接民主行动的实践,并通过定性比较分析来解释它们的命运,以评估奥尔特曼提出的理论期望在最近一段时间内在乌拉圭的情况下得到了多大程度的证实,从而做出了实证贡献。我们得出的结论是,当意识形态集团在政府中交替时,直接民主的政治就会发生变化,而直接民主倡议的失败是由于缺乏游说能力、政府支持率高,或者在积极的经济环境下,投票与总统选举不同时进行。
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引用次数: 0
From Economic to Political Power: Economic Elites and Policymaking During Times of Crisis 从经济权力到政治权力:危机时期的经济精英与政策制定
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231180897
L. García-Montoya, P. Manzi
The shared crisis brought on by COVID-19 offers an opportunity to study how economic elites attempt to shape policy responses. In this article, we inquire about the conditions under which economic elites shaped containment and business support measures in Latin America. We argue that wealthier and better-organised elites are more likely to shape policies because they have increased access to policymakers. To test this, we combine regression analysis with three case studies: Chile, Mexico, and Peru. Our quantitative findings align with our expectations regarding containment measures and present mixed results for pro-business policies. Case studies illustrate how elites attempted to influence policy, highlighting the centrality of access to the Executive and the importance of distinguishing between institutionalised or personalised access. The degree to which policy responses aligned with elite preferences varied according to the nature of the ties: ranging from the most alignment in Chile to the least in Peru.
新冠肺炎带来的共同危机提供了一个研究经济精英如何试图制定政策应对措施的机会。在这篇文章中,我们探讨了拉丁美洲经济精英形成遏制和商业支持措施的条件。我们认为,更富有、更有组织的精英更有可能制定政策,因为他们有更多的机会接触决策者。为了验证这一点,我们将回归分析与三个案例研究相结合:智利、墨西哥和秘鲁。我们的定量调查结果与我们对遏制措施的预期一致,并为支持商业的政策带来了喜忧参半的结果。案例研究说明了精英们如何试图影响政策,强调了与行政部门接触的中心地位,以及区分制度化或个性化接触的重要性。政策回应与精英偏好的一致程度因关系的性质而异:从智利的一致程度最高到秘鲁的一致程度最低。
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引用次数: 0
Oil Theft and Violence in Mexico 墨西哥的石油盗窃和暴力
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231176572
Edgar FRANCO-VIVANCO, Cesar B. Martinez-Alvarez, I. F. Martínez
Around the world, non-state armed actors have been linked to the illegal extraction of energy resources. This research note explores the case of Mexico. Anecdotal evidence suggests that criminal groups have been gaining control of energy infrastructure across the country. At the same time, oil tapping has been directly associated with criminal violence. Yet, there has not been a systematic effort to causally identify the relationship between illegal extraction and criminal violence. In this research note, we use the exogenous variation in international oil prices—as a measure of potential profits—to assess the effect of access to energy infrastructure on criminal-related violence. Our results show that increases in oil prices are associated with higher levels of homicide rates in municipalities with pipelines and in neighboring municipalities. Specifically, a standard price increase during this period is associated with approximately 20% more homicides per year in municipalities with gasoline pipelines. A locality-level analysis suggests a non-linear distance effect. Finally, we also explore criminal fragmentation as the mechanism connecting access to resources and violence. We find that access to pipelines is associated with higher presence of organized crime groups, but not necessarily with more fragmentation.
在世界各地,非国家武装行为者与非法开采能源资源有关。本研究报告探讨了墨西哥的情况。轶事证据表明,犯罪集团已经控制了全国各地的能源基础设施。与此同时,石油开采与犯罪暴力直接相关。然而,还没有系统地努力从原因上确定非法开采和犯罪暴力之间的关系。在这份研究报告中,我们使用国际油价的外生变化——作为潜在利润的衡量标准——来评估获得能源基础设施对犯罪相关暴力的影响。我们的研究结果表明,在有管道的城市和邻近城市,油价上涨与较高的谋杀率有关。具体而言,在此期间,标准价格的上涨与拥有汽油管道的城市每年增加约20%的凶杀案有关。局部水平分析表明存在非线性距离效应。最后,我们还探讨了将犯罪碎片化作为获取资源和暴力联系起来的机制。我们发现,进入管道与有组织犯罪集团的存在率较高有关,但不一定与更分散有关。
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引用次数: 0
Questioning Resilience: An Examination of the Effects of and Responses to the Covid-19 Pandemic in the Peripheries of Brazil 质疑韧性:对巴西周边地区Covid-19大流行的影响和应对措施的考察
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-06 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X231160801
R. Maschietto, A. Tomesani
In this article, we assess the effects of and responses to the Covid-19 pandemic in the Brazilian peripheries by relying on resilience theory and the experiences of peripheral actors during the first year of the pandemic. We consider these experiences to examine whether the initial responses to the crisis had the potential to bring about long-term positive change. We rely on thematic analysis of 80 interviews with leaders of grassroots organizations of different nature all over the country between October 2020 and January 2021. We argue that we cannot speak of resilience and system change unless we engage with the voices of those most affected by adversity. While in its first year the pandemic brought important traces of structural violence to the surface, providing an opportunity for structural change, peripheral views at that moment cast doubts about the extent to which those changes could lead to long-term structural changes.
在这篇文章中,我们根据抗御力理论和外围行为者在疫情第一年的经验,评估了新冠肺炎疫情在巴西外围地区的影响和应对措施。我们考虑这些经验是为了检验对危机的初步反应是否有可能带来长期的积极变化。我们对2020年10月至2021年1月期间对全国各地不同性质基层组织领导人的80次采访进行了主题分析。我们认为,除非我们倾听那些受逆境影响最大的人的声音,否则我们无法谈论韧性和制度变革。尽管在疫情爆发的第一年,结构性暴力的重要痕迹浮出水面,为结构性变革提供了机会,但当时的外围观点让人怀疑这些变革在多大程度上会导致长期结构性变革。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Politics in Latin America
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