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Between Conflict and Politics: Understanding Popular Support for the FARC’s Political Involvement 冲突与政治之间:理解民众对哥伦比亚革命武装力量政治参与的支持
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-26 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20963282
Miguel García-Sánchez, Juan Camilo Plata-Caviedes
Political participation of former combatants is a central component of peace agreements. Similarly, people’s acceptance of political parties derived from such agreements is a crucial element towards peace building. Considering the peace deal between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC), we ask “What factors shape popular support for the FARC’s political involvement?” We argue that attitudes towards the political integration of the former guerrilla are influenced by conflict experiences and partisan identities. Relying on survey data, our results indicate that conflict experiences and political identities alone are not correlated with attitudes towards the political integration of former insurgents. However, public support for former combatants having a political party is associated with conflict experiences only for those who feel close to parties that took a hawkish stance towards the agreement.
前战斗人员的政治参与是和平协定的核心组成部分。同样,人民接受这些协议产生的政党是建设和平的一个关键因素。考虑到哥伦比亚政府与哥伦比亚革命武装力量(哥伦比亚革命武装部队,FARC)之间的和平协议,我们问“是什么因素影响了民众对FARC政治参与的支持?”我们认为,对前游击队政治融合的态度受到冲突经历和党派身份的影响。根据调查数据,我们的结果表明,冲突经历和政治身份本身与前叛乱分子对政治融合的态度并不相关。然而,公众对前战斗人员拥有政党的支持只与那些与对协议持鹰派立场的政党关系密切的人的冲突经历有关。
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引用次数: 0
The FARC in the Public Eye: Negotiation, Integration, and Political Participation 公众眼中的哥伦比亚革命武装力量:谈判、融合和政治参与
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-26 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20970805
Miguel García-Sánchez, Ryan E. Carlin
Creative Commons Non Commercial CC BYNC: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial 4.0 License (https:// creativecommons. org/ licenses/ bync/ 4. 0/) which permits noncommercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https:// us. sagepub. com/ enus/ nam/ openaccessatsage). The FARC in the Public Eye: Negotiation, Integration, and Political Participation
知识共享非商业性CC:本文在知识共享署名非商业性4.0许可证(https:// Creative Commons . CC)的条款下发布。“Org/ licenses/ bync/”0/),允许非商业用途,复制和分发作品,无需进一步许可,前提是原始作品的归属是在SAGE和开放获取页面上指定的(https:// us.;)sagepub。http://www.enus/nam/openaccessatsage)。公众眼中的哥伦比亚革命武装力量:谈判、整合和政治参与
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引用次数: 0
Pitfall to Peace: FARC’s Political Participation and Mass Support for Peace Talks in Colombia 和平的陷阱:哥伦比亚革命武装力量的政治参与和对和平谈判的大规模支持
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-26 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20965585
Ryan E. Carlin, Gregory J. Love, J. Mccoy, Jelena Subotić
Transforming armed groups into legitimate political actors is often considered an ideal way to settle armed internal conflicts. In democracies, the efficacy of such approaches depends on the public legitimacy that the citizenry grants them. How does the prospect of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (FARC’s) political participation influence citizens’ support for the peace process? This study addresses this question by triangulating evidence from three separate studies: (1) regression analysis using face-to-face nationally representative survey data, as well as (2) a vignette experiment and (3) a conjoint analysis, both conducted online with national samples of Colombians. Though methodologically distinct, each analysis converges on a singular conclusion: mass support for the integration of ex-FARC guerrillas into democratic politics damaged support for negotiated peace, often to similar or greater degrees than mass support for transitional justice mechanisms. We suspect this reflects citizens’ fear of undermining democratic representation, the legitimacy of democratic institutions, and electoral integrity.
将武装团体转变为合法的政治行动者通常被认为是解决国内武装冲突的理想方式。在民主国家,这种方法的有效性取决于公民赋予它们的公共合法性。哥伦比亚革命武装力量(FARC)政治参与的前景如何影响公民对和平进程的支持?这项研究通过对三项独立研究的证据进行三角分析来解决这个问题:(1)使用面对面全国代表性调查数据的回归分析,以及(2)小插曲实验和(3)联合分析,这两项研究都是在网上对哥伦比亚人的全国样本进行的。尽管在方法上有所不同,但每一项分析都得出了一个独特的结论:对前哥伦比亚革命武装力量游击队融入民主政治的大规模支持损害了对谈判和平的支持,其程度往往与对过渡司法机制的大规模支持相似或更大。我们怀疑这反映了公民对破坏民主代表性、民主制度合法性和选举完整性的恐惧。
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引用次数: 0
Trust in Colombia’s Justicia Especial Para La Paz: Experimental Evidence 哥伦比亚和平特别司法信托:实验证据
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-26 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20959509
Sandra Botero
Research on the determinants of institutional trust in courts that are part of transitional justice frameworks is scarce. This article relies on experimental evidence to explore whether features of the case and the ruling play a role in citizens’ attitudes towards the Justicia Especial para la Paz, Colombia’s transitional justice tribunal. I evaluate whether the profile of the accused and whether or not he is sentenced to the most lenient of restorative justice measures have an effect on trust. I find that support for the decision is lower for restorative sentences than for more punitive sentences, and that whether or not the acussed was a former guerrilla combatant or a member of the military does not influence evaluations. This research contributes to our understanding of how citizens in countries dealing with the aftermath of violence perceive the institutions devised to adjudicate on the atrocities of conflict.
对作为过渡时期司法框架一部分的法院的机构信任的决定因素的研究很少。这篇文章依靠实验证据来探讨案件的特点和裁决是否在公民对哥伦比亚过渡司法法庭的态度中发挥了作用。我评估被告的情况以及他是否被判处最宽松的恢复性司法措施是否会对信任产生影响。我发现,恢复性判决的支持率低于惩罚性判决,而且被拘留者是否是前游击队员或军人并不影响评估。这项研究有助于我们理解处理暴力后果的国家的公民如何看待旨在裁决冲突暴行的机构。
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引用次数: 1
Who Wants Peace? Predicting Civilian Preferences in Conflict Negotiations 谁想要和平?预测冲突谈判中的平民偏好
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-26 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20960281
Ana María Montoya, J. Tellez
Efforts to end civil wars via negotiations often generate sharp divisions in public opinion. A large, quantitative literature has found evidence for numerous variables serving as potential drivers of public support of and opposition to conflict negotiations. Yet the formation of policy preferences is a complex process, and while many factors might make small contributions to an individual’s conflict termination preferences, we lack a sense of which factors matter most or how to adjudicate among competing explanations. In this article, we leverage a large amount of nationally representative survey data from Colombia (2004–2015) and use machine learning tools to systematically explore which variables are the strongest predictors of public support for negotiations with Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). We find that certain aspects of conflict exposure, individual values bearing on justice and punishment, and belief in the efficacy of the state are among the strongest predictors of negotiation preferences, while many conventionally important variables in the literature have little predictive power. The results have implications for scholars seeking to understand broad drivers of (dis)satisfaction with negotiations and shed light on the polarising Colombian peace process.
通过谈判结束内战的努力往往会在公众舆论中产生尖锐的分歧。大量的定量文献已经发现了许多变量作为公众支持和反对冲突谈判的潜在驱动因素的证据。然而,政策偏好的形成是一个复杂的过程,尽管许多因素可能对个人的冲突终止偏好产生很小的影响,但我们不知道哪些因素最重要,也不知道如何在相互竞争的解释中做出判断。在本文中,我们利用来自哥伦比亚(2004-2015)的大量具有全国代表性的调查数据,并使用机器学习工具系统地探索哪些变量是公众支持与哥伦比亚革命武装力量(FARC)谈判的最强预测因素。我们发现,冲突暴露的某些方面,对正义和惩罚的个人价值观,以及对国家效能的信念是谈判偏好的最强预测因素,而文献中许多传统上重要的变量几乎没有预测能力。研究结果对寻求理解对谈判(不满)的广泛驱动因素的学者具有启示意义,并揭示了两极分化的哥伦比亚和平进程。
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引用次数: 2
Agency and Structure in Latin American Regime Change 拉丁美洲政权更迭中的机构与结构
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-22 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20959501
B. Ames, Ignacio Mamone
Transitions from authoritarianism and breakdowns of democracy have long been central puzzles for scholars of Latin American politics. Because structural explanations have proved to be weak, recent work has emphasised political agency. This strand of research is promising, but major questions remain unanswered: Who are the key actors driving regime change? How do their individual preferences affect transitions and breakdowns? This article focuses on three central members of the political elite: presidents, opposition leaders, and military commanders. These actors develop unique preferences about regimes and unique degrees of radicalism regarding their preferred policies; in turn, these preferences and radicalism affect the probabilities of regime change. Testing the argument in 20 nations between 1945 and 2010, we find that an average measure of preferences masks crucial distinctions in the chain of regime change. Transitions to a competitive regime are more likely when autocrats have low intrinsic commitments to dictatorship. The survival of democracies hinges on whether top military officials develop pro-democratic preferences. The role of executive preferences, by contrast, is moderated by the attachments and radicalism of opposition leaders. Next, we examine how structural contexts shape both preferences and political outcomes, finding that economic development shapes both the emergence of preferences and radicalism and their impacts on regime change. Our findings improve the validity of political agency theories and reconcile the roles of actors with the environments in which regimes emerge and fall.
长期以来,威权主义的过渡和民主的崩溃一直是拉美政治学者的核心难题。由于结构性解释已被证明是站不住脚的,最近的研究着重于政治机构。这一系列的研究很有前景,但主要问题仍未得到解答:谁是推动政权更迭的关键人物?他们的个人偏好如何影响过渡和崩溃?本文主要关注政治精英的三个核心成员:总统、反对派领导人和军事指挥官。这些行为体对政权产生了独特的偏好,对其偏好的政策产生了独特程度的激进主义;反过来,这些偏好和激进主义会影响政权更迭的可能性。我们在1945年至2010年间的20个国家对这一论点进行了测试,发现对偏好的平均衡量掩盖了政权更迭链条中的关键区别。当独裁者对独裁的内在承诺较低时,向竞争体制过渡的可能性更大。民主的生存取决于高级军事官员是否发展出亲民主的偏好。相比之下,行政偏好的作用被反对派领导人的依恋和激进主义所缓和。接下来,我们研究了结构背景如何塑造偏好和政治结果,发现经济发展既塑造了偏好和激进主义的出现,也塑造了它们对政权更迭的影响。我们的研究结果提高了政治代理理论的有效性,并调和了行为者的角色与政权产生和垮台的环境。
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引用次数: 2
Access to Justice and the Legal Complex: Building a Public Defenders’ Office in Brazil 诉诸司法和法律综合体:在巴西建立公设辩护人办公室
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20942780
Rodrigo M. Nunes
Latin American democracies have developed institutions to empower citizens against the state. This article brings attention to an often overlooked, but key, actor in these processes: the legal complex. I argue that the content of reforms designed to strengthen the rule of law partially reflects the interests of politically influential collective legal actors. Political influence is defined as a function of alliances with civil society and embeddedness within decision-making arenas of the state. To develop this argument, the article analyses the slow building of Brazil’s Public Defenders’ Office (PDO). I argue that the office’s initial institutional weakness resulted from defenders’ fragile political position relative to that of prosecutors and the bar during Brazil’s constitutional transition. Its eventual strengthening sixteen years later resulted from changes to the legal complex alliance in its favour, the formation of connections between defenders and civil society, and increased PDO access to policymaking spaces.
拉丁美洲的民主国家已经发展出赋予公民反抗国家权力的制度。本文将关注这些过程中一个经常被忽视,但却是关键的因素:法律情结。我认为,旨在加强法治的改革内容部分反映了具有政治影响力的集体法律行为者的利益。政治影响力被定义为与公民社会结盟和嵌入国家决策领域的功能。为了展开这一论点,本文分析了巴西公设辩护人办公室(PDO)建设缓慢的原因。我认为,在巴西宪法转型期间,与检察官和律师相比,辩护律师的政治地位脆弱,这是该办公室最初在制度上的弱点。16年后,它最终得到加强,原因是有利于它的复杂法律联盟发生了变化,捍卫者与民间社会之间形成了联系,PDO获得了更多的决策空间。
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引用次数: 2
Endogenous Direct Democracy: The Case of Mexico 内生直接民主:以墨西哥为例
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20939233
Juvenal J. Cortés
Direct democracy (DD) – including initiatives and referendums – is increasingly used by citizens and governments to establish new policies around the world. Although framed as a tool that benefits citizens, it is also common for government actors, including parties, to utilise DD in initiating and pushing through new policies. To explain this puzzling development, existing research examines the regulative design of DD. Going a step further, this article explains how the design of DD originates. Using process tracing methodology, I examine the case of Mexico – the most recent adopter of DD in 2014 – and illustrate how, when, and how DD can be used and modified. I argue that DD is endogenous: we cannot conceive of it independently of the political forces that generated it. Other prominent cases, such as Uruguay, suggest that DD was adopted to pursue party goals or to shape a particular government structure. Legislatures certainly provide the masses the option of engaging in DD but they do so on their own terms.
直接民主(DD)——包括倡议和全民公决——越来越多地被世界各地的公民和政府用来制定新政策。虽然被定义为一种有利于公民的工具,但包括政党在内的政府行为体在启动和推动新政策时也经常使用DD。为了解释这一令人困惑的发展,现有的研究考察了DD的规范性设计。本文进一步解释了DD的设计是如何起源的。使用过程跟踪方法,我研究了墨西哥的案例——2014年最新的DD采用者——并说明了如何、何时以及如何使用和修改DD。我认为DD是内生的:我们无法想象它独立于产生它的政治力量之外。其他突出的例子,如乌拉圭,表明DD被采用是为了追求党的目标或塑造一个特定的政府结构。立法机关当然为大众提供了参与民主变革的选择,但他们是按照自己的意愿来做的。
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引用次数: 0
Presidential Delegation to Foreign Ministries: A Study of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico (1946–2015) 总统外交部代表团:对阿根廷、巴西和墨西哥的研究(1946–2015)
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20944184
Octavio Amorim Neto, A. Malamud
When do presidents delegate policy-making authority to their foreign ministries? And is foreign policy unique in this respect? We posit that six international, national, and personal factors determine the opportunity and motivation of presidents to delegate, and then analyse the cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico in 1946–2015. By applying fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, we find that four combinations of factors are sufficient paths to delegation: (1) international stability and elite consensus on foreign policy; (2) international stability, right-wing president, and low diplomatic professionalisation; (3) international stability, right-wing president, and low presidential expertise on foreign policy; or (4) absence of authoritarianism combined with elite consensus on foreign policy and right-wing president. Our study of foreign ministries reinforces some of the main findings of the scholarly literature on other ministries, thus challenging the view of foreign policy-making as different from domestic policy areas.
总统什么时候将决策权下放给外交部?外交政策在这方面是独特的吗?我们假设,六个国际、国家和个人因素决定了总统授权的机会和动机,然后分析了1946年至2015年阿根廷、巴西和墨西哥的案例。运用模糊集定性比较分析,我们发现四种因素组合是授权的充分途径:(1)国际稳定和精英外交政策共识;(2) 国际稳定、右翼总统和外交专业化程度低;(3) 国际稳定、右翼总统和总统在外交政策方面的专业知识不足;或(4)没有威权主义,加上精英在外交政策上的共识和右翼总统。我们对外交部的研究强化了学术文献中关于其他部的一些主要发现,从而挑战了外交政策制定与国内政策领域不同的观点。
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引用次数: 4
List Experiments, Political Sophistication, and Vote Buying: Experimental Evidence from Mexico 清单实验、政治复杂性和贿选:来自墨西哥的实验证据
IF 1.3 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/1866802X20937713
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, Ulises Beltrán
This research conducted list experiments to estimate the percentage of respondents who received electoral gifts during the 2015 legislative and the 2015 and 2017 subnational campaigns in Mexico. Consistent with recent studies on sensitive survey techniques, our research finds that list experiments seem to methodologically work better among more sophisticated voters (e.g. those with higher levels of education). Such findings suggest that previous studies that rely on list experiments tend to underestimate the percentage of voters who receive electoral gifts since this technique tends to work better among respondents who are, in fact, least likely to be targeted by clientelistic strategies. Given levels of education in the region, we suggest that research solely relying on list experiments approach its empirical findings with caution.
这项研究进行了列表实验,以估计在墨西哥2015年立法以及2015年和2017年国家以下各级竞选期间收到选举礼物的受访者的百分比。与最近对敏感调查技术的研究一致,我们的研究发现,在更老练的选民(例如教育水平较高的选民)中,列表实验似乎在方法上更有效。这些发现表明,以前依靠名单实验的研究往往低估了收到选举礼物的选民的百分比,因为这种技术往往在事实上最不可能成为客户主义策略目标的受访者中效果更好。考虑到该地区的教育水平,我们建议仅依靠列表实验的研究谨慎对待其实证结果。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Politics in Latin America
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