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City size, administrative rank, and Rural–Urban migration in China 中国的城市规模、行政级别与城乡人口迁移
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.12.001
Chengri Ding , Mingsheng Wang , Zhongxing Guo , Ning Chen

This study investigates the effects of city size and administrative rank on rural–urban migration in China and examines the factors that influence the city size effect. We focus on unemployed while job-seeking migrants. Using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey for 2016 and 2017, we find that city size and administrative rank positively influence the destination of rural–urban migrants. Furthermore, we conclude that individual characteristics and home province features influence the city size effect. Young, unmarried, educated, and first-time migrants tend to choose big cities. Migrants from provinces without a primate city tend to move across provincial boundaries, implying that big cities are destinations. Moreover, the city size effect positively correlates with urban concentration and urbanization. Finally, we noted that first-time migrants tend to select a big city to migrate.

本研究探讨了城市规模和行政级别对中国城乡人口迁移的影响,并研究了影响城市规模效应的因素。我们的研究重点是失业和求职移民。利用 2016 年和 2017 年的中国流动人口动态调查数据,我们发现城市规模和行政级别对城乡流动人口的目的地有正向影响。此外,我们还得出结论,个人特征和家乡省份特征会影响城市规模效应。年轻、未婚、受过教育和首次移民倾向于选择大城市。来自没有灵长类城市省份的移民倾向于跨省迁移,这意味着大城市是移民的目的地。此外,城市规模效应与城市集中度和城市化呈正相关。最后,我们注意到首次移民倾向于选择大城市移民。
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引用次数: 0
Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020 商业用地变化与增长过程--1995-2020 年葡萄牙里斯本零售地点评估
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.11.005
Rui Colaço, João de Abreu e Silva

Land use modelling is essential to understanding future land use and change dynamics. Analyses of land use and change using Cellular Automata (CA) have been frequent in the literature since the latter were introduced to geography in the 1970s. In this paper, the statistical subsections – city blocks – of a previous analysis of Lisbon's commercial structure are used as the cells of a CA. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models the transition potential of those cells between 1995 and 2020, considering the impact of street centrality, subway development and other proxies of urban growth. The results confirm that commercial growth and change can be simulated as a function of street centrality and that using Local integration and Choice as drivers of a CA may help improve predictions of commercial growth and change. Moreover, the CA results reinforce that street centrality positively affects street commerce, especially when combined with access to transit and amenities. While these results can already inform planning practice and policymaking, the framework presented in this paper may be replicated to simulate ​future commercial land use, thus helping planners and policymakers prepare for change.

土地利用建模对于了解未来土地利用和变化动态至关重要。自 20 世纪 70 年代细胞自动机(CA)被引入地理学以来,使用细胞自动机对土地利用和变化进行分析的文献屡见不鲜。在本文中,以前对里斯本商业结构进行分析时所采用的统计分区--城市街区--被用作细胞自动机的单元。多层感知器(MLP)对这些单元在 1995 年至 2020 年间的过渡潜力进行建模,并考虑了街道中心性、地铁发展和其他城市增长代用指标的影响。结果证实,商业增长和变化可以作为街道中心度的函数进行模拟,将本地整合和选择作为 CA 的驱动力可能有助于改善对商业增长和变化的预测。此外,CA 结果还强化了街道中心性对街道商业的积极影响,尤其是在与交通和便利设施相结合的情况下。虽然这些结果已经可以为规划实践和政策制定提供参考,但本文提出的框架也可用于模拟未来的商业用地使用,从而帮助规划者和政策制定者为变革做好准备。
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引用次数: 0
Identification of necessity behind the construction of the third Shitalakhya bridge based on level of service (LOS) measurement parameters applicable for developing countries 根据适用于发展中国家的服务水平(LOS)测量参数,确定修建第三座希塔拉基亚大桥的必要性
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.11.004
Mohammad Rafayet Hossain , Syed Mohammed Waliullah

With the expansion of industrial activities in developing countries like Bangladesh, the purchase of motorized vehicles is also growing in recent days. This increased number of motorized vehicles is creating massive pressure on the logistic movement in industrial areas, and the performance level of roadways is deteriorating day by day. It has become quite difficult to meet the need for a reliable transportation system that can provide good compatibility for road users and logistical operations. Kanchpur Industrial Area can be classified as an industrial hub of Narayanganj District due to the presence of jute trading and plant processing industries. Over the years two bridges have been constructed in the proximity of this area named, the Kanchpur Bridge and Sultana Kamal Bridge to decrease the pressure on N2 National Highway; however, the situation is still not satisfactory and construction of a third bridge over the Shitalakhya River is under consideration by the Government of Bangladesh (GOB). Dhaka-Sylhet Highway is a section of the N2 National Highway system which connects the industrial district Kanchpur with Dhaka City. The main objectives of the study were to develop a methodology which can be used to measure the Level of Service (LOS) of roadways located in developing countries and use it to understand the necessity of the construction of the third Shitalakhya Bridge. LOS measurement procedures suitable for developed countries are not useable for developing countries due to the difference in road geometry, presence of non-motorized vehicles, and control delay at intersections. A procedure has been developed to measure LOS by combining standards of the National Institute of Technical Teachers Training and Research, Chandigarh, India; Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), USA; and Roads and Highway Department (RHD), Bangladesh. LOS measurement was based on four parameters: Peak Hour Factor (PHF), Travel Speed, Load Factor, and Volume/Capacity Ratio (VCR). The data analysis shows that the LOS value of the Dhaka-Sylhet Highway varies within the range from “E" to “F", and construction of the third Shitalakhya Bridge will significantly improve the roadway condition.

随着孟加拉国等发展中国家工业活动的扩大,近年来机动车辆的购买量也在不断增长。机动车辆数量的增加给工业区的物流运输带来了巨大压力,道路的性能水平也在日益下降。要满足对可靠的交通系统的需求,为道路使用者和物流运作提供良好的兼容性,已经变得相当困难。由于黄麻贸易和工厂加工业的存在,坎奇布尔工业区可被归类为纳拉扬甘杰区的工业中心。多年来,在该地区附近修建了两座大桥,分别名为 Kanchpur 大桥和 Sultana Kamal 大桥,以减轻 N2 国道的压力;然而,情况仍不尽人意,孟加拉国政府(GOB)正在考虑在 Shitalakhya 河上修建第三座大桥。达卡-锡尔赫特公路是 N2 国道系统的一段,连接坎奇布尔工业区和达卡市。这项研究的主要目的是开发一种可用于测量发展中国家公路服务水平(LOS)的方法,并利用它来了解修建第三座希塔拉基亚大桥的必要性。由于道路几何形状、非机动车辆的存在以及交叉口的控制延迟等方面的差异,适用于发达国家的 LOS 测量程序并不适用于发展中国家。通过结合印度昌迪加尔国家技术教师培训与研究学院、美国《公路通行能力手册》(HCM)和孟加拉国道路与公路局(RHD)的标准,制定了一套测量 LOS 的程序。LOS 测量基于四个参数:高峰小时系数 (PHF)、行车速度、负载系数和容积/容量比 (VCR)。数据分析显示,达卡-锡尔赫特公路的 LOS 值在 "E "到 "F "之间变化,而第三座 Shitalakhya 大桥的建设将显著改善道路状况。
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引用次数: 0
A feasibility analysis of reverse mortgages in Brazil 巴西反向抵押贷款的可行性分析
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.11.003
João Vinícius de França Carvalho, Gabriel Giuliano Araújo

In this study, we examine the feasibility of reverse mortgages in Brazil from the perspectives of both policyholders and insurers. Reverse mortgage is a financial product where the property's ownership is transferred to an insurance company in exchange for a guaranteed annuity, while the insured retains the right to use such property until their death. Using monthly real state pricing data (2008–2019) provided by FipeZAP, we employ statistical modeling to predict future prices of properties to get the future insurer's expected results, while policyholders' annuity benefits are calculated using actuarial approach. To assess attractiveness, we calculate internal rate of return for different policyholder profiles and conduct profit test for the insurer. Our results indicate that, as an investment strategy, reverse mortgage has little or no attractiveness to the policyholder despite its actuarial fairness. However, it may be a viable option for increasing retirement income in case of a consistent real estate overvaluation. For insurers, the results are unfeasible due to the extended time lag for positive financial results, which only occurs after the policyholder's death. The inclusion of safety loadings can produce more favorable outcomes. Nonetheless, we recommend incorporating reverse mortgages as an elderly policy strategy to reduce reliance on state support during retirement, even if no attractive returns are provided as a financial investment. We also discuss policy implications (e.g., right to the city) to help the elderly stay connected to social support networks and local services.

在本研究中,我们从保单持有人和保险公司的角度考察了巴西反向抵押贷款的可行性。反向抵押贷款是一种金融产品,将财产的所有权转让给保险公司,以换取保证的年金,而被保险人保留使用该财产的权利,直到他们去世。利用FipeZAP提供的2008-2019年月度房地产定价数据,采用统计模型预测未来房地产价格,得到未来保险公司的预期结果,同时采用精算方法计算投保人的年金收益。为了评估吸引力,我们计算了不同投保人的内部收益率,并对保险公司进行了利润测试。我们的研究结果表明,反向抵押贷款作为一种投资策略,尽管具有精算公平性,但对投保人的吸引力很小或没有吸引力。然而,在房地产持续高估的情况下,这可能是增加退休收入的可行选择。对于保险公司来说,结果是不可行的,因为积极的财务结果的时间滞后延长,只有在投保人死亡后才会发生。纳入安全载荷可以产生更有利的结果。尽管如此,我们建议将反向抵押贷款纳入老年人政策策略,以减少退休期间对国家支持的依赖,即使没有提供有吸引力的回报作为金融投资。我们还讨论了政策影响(例如,城市权),以帮助老年人保持与社会支持网络和当地服务的联系。
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引用次数: 0
Equality in education, synchronous enrolment policy and housing prices of school districts: Based on the experience of Hangzhou 教育公平、同步招生政策与学区房价——基于杭州的经验
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.11.002
Chuanhao Tian , Yu Teng , Wenjun Ji

Housing is the major way for Hangzhou residents to access public primary and secondary education resources. The implementation of educational equalization policies will impact housing prices, especially school district housing prices. This paper focuses on the synchronous enrollment policy, which requires both public and private schools to enroll students simultaneously, thus changing the enrollment strategies for students and parents. Using the 2019 implementation of the synchronous enrollment policy in Hangzhou primary schools as a natural experiment, the difference-in-differences and quantile regression models were employed to estimate the capitalization of this policy and its heterogeneity. The results indicate that the policy leads to an appreciation of school district housing prices, with a stronger effect on the housing prices of elite public school districts. To achieve educational equalization, the government must formulate supporting policies to ensure internal balance in public schools and simultaneously create sufficient high-quality educational resources.

住房是杭州居民获取公办中小学教育资源的主要途径。教育均等化政策的实施将影响房价,尤其是学区房价。本文研究的是同步招生政策,即要求公立学校和私立学校同时招生,从而改变学生和家长的招生策略。以2019年杭州市小学同步招生政策的实施为自然实验,采用差中差和分位数回归模型对同步招生政策的资本化及其异质性进行了估计。结果表明,政策导致学区房价上涨,对公立精英学区房价的影响更大。要实现教育均等化,政府必须制定配套政策,保证公立学校内部的平衡,同时创造充足的优质教育资源。
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引用次数: 0
Canada's leadership and housing affordability: Evidence from the Canadian real estate market 加拿大的领导地位和住房负担能力:来自加拿大房地产市场的证据
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.11.001
Bayan Yousef Farhan

This study aims to investigate the housing affordability crisis and if Canada's political leadership is part of the problem or part of the solution. Convergent parallel design was conducted to understand a research problem. Quantitative and qualitative data was collected to examine the research argument and to answer the research questions of who benefits from the existing housing situation and how the situation influences young Canadians. The results show that both government and bankers benefit from the existing shortage of residential property. While bankers work in their arena with the incentive to generate income and increase profit through facilitating mortgages, Canada's leadership at all levels regulates the real estate market with no incentive to improve the existing shortage. Offering affordable homes for Canadians is a government responsibility, but one that conflicts with other governments interests. Affordable houses require more focus on the supply side of the market to reduce the shortage, which conflicts with government's goal of generating more tax revenue since property tax is linked directly to real estate market prices. The study results show that Canada's leadership potential conflict of interest cannot be ignored and the challenge of high residential property prices creates a problem of brain drain among young Canadians. The Canadian government needs to work to increase the supply of residential property through new policies that encourage development and investment in new home construction. Canada, as the second largest country in the world by area, can mitigate this problem if the government were generous in offering lands for new development programs and removing current restrictions.

本研究旨在调查住房负担能力危机,以及加拿大的政治领导是问题的一部分还是解决方案的一部分。通过收敛并行设计来理解一个研究问题。收集了定量和定性数据,以审查研究论点,并回答谁从现有住房状况中受益以及这种状况如何影响加拿大年轻人的研究问题。结果表明,政府和银行都从现有的住宅物业短缺中受益。当银行家在他们的领域工作时,他们的动机是通过促进抵押贷款来创造收入和增加利润,而加拿大各级领导对房地产市场的监管却没有改善现有短缺的动机。为加拿大人提供负担得起的住房是政府的责任,但这与其他政府的利益相冲突。经济适用房需要更多地关注市场的供给侧,以减少短缺,这与政府创造更多税收的目标相冲突,因为财产税与房地产市场价格直接相关。研究结果表明,加拿大领导层潜在的利益冲突不容忽视,高房价的挑战造成了加拿大年轻人的人才流失问题。加拿大政府需要通过鼓励开发和投资新建住宅的新政策,努力增加住宅物业的供应。加拿大作为世界上面积第二大的国家,如果政府慷慨地为新的开发项目提供土地并取消目前的限制,就可以缓解这一问题。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial preferences of small and medium knowledge based enterprises in Tehran new business area 德黑兰新商业区中小型知识型企业的空间偏好
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.10.001
Seyed Saman Habibi , Sahar Nedae Tousi , Farshid Aram , Amirhosein Mosavi

In recent decades, there has been a growing emphasis on the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as a significant driver of economic growth and enhancer of competitiveness. They constitute an estimated 90% of the total population of businesses, and contribute significantly, up to 40% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in emerging markets. Furthermore, these enterprises yield a fundamental function in cultivating job prospects, offering employment to approximately half of the worldwide labor force. However, SMEs often face unique challenges related to their size and resources, including accessing finance, developing new products and services, and identifying optimal locations for their businesses. This study seeks to address the latter issue by analyzing the spatial preferences of small and medium knowledge-based enterprises in Tehran's new business area, utilizing the spatial analyst tools by GIS. The research methodology employed in this study is non-experimental in character. It involves the distribution of a social survey to proprietors of SMEs in order to ascertain the key criteria they prioritize when selecting a location for their business. For the purpose of achieving the objective, a conceptual-operational model was developed, comprising four index categories. These categories are delineated as the personal motivations of the entrepreneur, the characteristics of the internal business environment, the spatial environment surrounding the business, and the institutional factors shaping the space. These components constitute critical determinants of the proposed model. The chosen variables were subjected to spatial analysis, and a business environment assistance map was developed in four zones. Following thorough analysis, the northwestern part of the area under consideration has been identified as the optimal zone, and subsequent recommendations for appropriate strategies have been proposed. The study culminated by offering suggestions for improvement, consisting of the implementation of a contextually-oriented model pertaining to new Iranian business improvement districts (BIDs) as a means of augmenting the status of SMEs.

近几十年来,中小型企业(SMEs)作为经济增长和提高竞争力的重要推动力,其重要性日益受到重视。据估计,中小型企业占企业总数的 90%,在新兴市场中占国内生产总值(GDP)的 40%。此外,这些企业在培养就业前景方面发挥着重要作用,为全球约一半的劳动力提供就业机会。然而,中小型企业往往面临着与其规模和资源相关的独特挑战,包括获得资金、开发新产品和服务以及为其业务确定最佳地点。本研究试图利用地理信息系统的空间分析工具,分析德黑兰新商业区中小型知识型企业的空间偏好,从而解决后一个问题。本研究采用的研究方法是非实验性的。它包括向中小型企业的经营者发放一份社会调查表,以确定他们在为企业选址时优先考虑的关键标准。为了实现这一目标,我们建立了一个概念-操作模型,其中包括四个指标类别。这些类别被划分为企业家的个人动机、企业内部环境的特点、企业周围的空间环境以及塑造空间的制度因素。这些要素构成了拟议模型的关键决定因素。对所选变量进行了空间分析,并绘制了四个区域的商业环境辅助地图。经过深入分析,研究区域的西北部被确定为最佳区域,随后提出了适当的战略建议。研究最终提出了改进建议,包括实施一个以背景为导向的伊朗新商业改进区(BIDs)模式,作为提高中小企业地位的一种手段。
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引用次数: 0
A theory of urbanization 城市化理论
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.10.003
Shih-Kung Lai
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引用次数: 0
Beyond streets: The role of alleys in Abu Dhabi's and Dubai's network systems 超越街道:小巷在阿布扎比和迪拜网络系统中的作用
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.10.002
Asim Khanal , Rawan Sohdy Abdelfattah , Khaled Alawadi , Ngoc Hong Nguyen

The network system is defined as the combination of streets and alleys. Although the potential of alleys in complementing street networks is acknowledged, the topic has not received a considerable attention in urban planning practice and scholarship. This paper evaluates alleys’ role in the combined street-alley networks by calculating Information Centrality, a metric in Multiple Centrality Assessment (MCA). The combined network of streets and alleys in thirteen neighborhoods of Abu Dhabi and Dubai have been studied. Findings indicate that alleys may or may not contribute to increment of network efficiency. Generally, the contribution of alleys to efficiency is more significant if the corresponding street network has low efficiency.

网络系统被定义为街道和小巷的组合。虽然小巷在补充街道网络方面的潜力已得到认可,但这一话题在城市规划实践和学术研究中并未得到广泛关注。本文通过计算多重中心性评估(MCA)中的一个指标--信息中心性,来评估小巷在街巷组合网络中的作用。研究了阿布扎比和迪拜 13 个社区的街巷组合网络。研究结果表明,小巷可能有助于提高网络效率,也可能无助于提高网络效率。一般来说,如果相应的街道网络效率较低,小巷对效率的贡献会更大。
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引用次数: 0
Topic evolution in urban studies: Tracking back and moving forward 城市研究的主题演变:回溯与前进
IF 6.1 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jum.2023.09.003
Hao Han, Chen Shen, Kaiqin Li, Alfred Tat-Kei Ho

This study is a bibliometric analysis of urban studies publications from 2001 to 2021 that unravels the evolution and growing complexity of the field. Although developed regions still dominate and lead this area of inquiry, urban studies led by Asian scholars have increased dramatically over the last decade. There is also topic diffusion from developed regions to less-developed regions despite some unique emphases within each region caused by their local socio-economic-ecological contexts. Climate change adaptation and sustainable development, inequality, and urban governance are receiving growing attention globally. The findings suggest the rising importance of cross-continent knowledge transfer and multi-disciplinary collaboration, particularly among urban studies, sustainability policies and management, public administration, and development studies. Also, urban researchers need to pay more attention to issues faced by many growing cities in developing economies in Asia and Africa as more of the world's population will reside in those urban settings in the coming decades.

本研究是对2001年至2021年城市研究出版物的文献计量分析,揭示了该领域的演变和日益增长的复杂性。尽管发达地区仍然主导和引领着这一领域的研究,但亚洲学者领导的城市研究在过去十年中急剧增加。尽管每个地区因其当地的社会经济生态背景而有其独特的侧重点,但也存在从发达地区向欠发达地区的主题扩散。适应气候变化与可持续发展、不平等、城市治理等问题日益受到全球关注。研究结果表明,跨大陆的知识转移和多学科合作日益重要,尤其是在城市研究、可持续性政策和管理、公共行政和发展研究之间。此外,城市研究人员需要更多地关注亚洲和非洲发展中经济体中许多不断增长的城市所面临的问题,因为在未来几十年里,世界上越来越多的人口将居住在这些城市。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Urban Management
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