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ESTIMATING THE DEMAND FOR RAILWAY FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION: A CASE STUDY IN KAZAKHSTAN 估算铁路货运需求:以哈萨克斯坦为例
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.07
Madiyar SULTANBEK, Nazdana ADILOVA, Aleksander SŁADKOWSKI, Arnur KARIBAYEV
This article focuses on the critical importance of demand estimates for effective planning and decision-making in the railway freight transportation industry. Various departments within transportation companies, including marketing, production, distribution, and finance departments, heavily rely on accurate demand forecasts to make informed decisions. Forecasting demand is a crucial aspect of managing business processes, and the methods for doing this can vary across different industries. The ultimate goal remains consistent—to obtain precise predictions of future demand by analyzing historical data and current environmental factors. In the context of transportation services, accurate demand forecasting is essential for successful operational planning and management of functional areas such as transportation operations, marketing, and finance. The current case study specifically examines the National Company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), a transport and logistics holding engaged in rail transportation in Kazakhstan. KTZ’s main sources of income are related to freight transportation. The volume of cargo transportation (in tons) and the freight turnover play a significant role in assessing demand and forecasting future revenues from freight traffic. Different techniques for demand forecasting are explored, including qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative methods rely on judgments and opinions, while quantitative methods utilize historical data or identify causal relationships between variables. Overall, the present study highlights the critical role of demand forecasting in the railway freight transportation industry and its impact on efficient planning and decision-making processes.
本文的重点是在铁路货运行业的有效规划和决策的需求估计的关键重要性。运输公司的各个部门,包括营销、生产、分销和财务部门,都严重依赖准确的需求预测来做出明智的决策。预测需求是管理业务流程的一个关键方面,在不同的行业中,预测需求的方法是不同的。最终目标保持不变——通过分析历史数据和当前环境因素,获得对未来需求的精确预测。在运输服务的背景下,准确的需求预测对于运输业务、营销和财务等功能领域的成功运营规划和管理至关重要。目前的案例研究特别审查了哈萨克斯坦国家公司Temir Zholy (KTZ),这是一家从事哈萨克斯坦铁路运输的运输和物流控股公司。KTZ的主要收入来源与货物运输有关。货物运输量(以吨为单位)和货物周转量在评估需求和预测货运未来收入方面发挥着重要作用。探讨了不同的需求预测技术,包括定性和定量方法。定性方法依赖于判断和意见,而定量方法利用历史数据或确定变量之间的因果关系。总体而言,本研究强调了需求预测在铁路货运行业中的关键作用及其对有效规划和决策过程的影响。
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引用次数: 0
IDENTIFYING THE CURRENT STATUS OF LAND TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN VIETNAM TO SUPPORT CROSS-BORDER FLOWS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA (PHASE 1 CONCLUSIONS) 确定越南陆地运输基础设施的现状,以支持东南亚的跨境流动(第一阶段结论)
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.13
Jakub DOŃSKI-LESIUK
This article presents selected aspects of the existing land infrastructure system in Vietnam that are important for cross-border transport. The aim of this paper is to present the results of the first phase of the study, which includes the analysis of the condition of the logistics infrastructure that supports the processes of international trade in goods. This phase includes the identification and initial assessment of the usefulness of the components of the logistics system in terms of its functionality and economic efficiency. The results define the scope of work necessary for the proper preparation of the logistics system in Vietnam for the needs related to ensuring the desirable efficiency of logistics corridors connecting Vietnam with China and neighboring regional markets of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
本文介绍了越南现有陆地基础设施系统的一些方面,这些方面对跨境运输很重要。本文的目的是介绍研究的第一阶段的结果,其中包括对支持国际货物贸易过程的物流基础设施状况的分析。这一阶段包括确定和初步评估物流系统各组成部分在功能和经济效率方面的有用性。结果确定了越南物流系统适当准备所需的工作范围,以确保连接越南与中国和东南亚国家联盟邻近区域市场的物流走廊的理想效率。
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引用次数: 0
STUDY ON THE ESTIMATION OF SARS-CoV-2 VIRUS PATHOGENS’ TRANSMISSION PROBABILITIES FOR DIFFERENT PUBLIC BUS TRANSPORT SERVICE SCENARIOS 不同公交服务场景下SARS-CoV-2病毒病原体传播概率估算研究
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.17
Rafał BURDZIK, Niko SPEYBROECK
The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic revealed societal challenges, with passenger transport rapidly experiencing the impacts of the virus and the evolution of the concept of safety in transport. Evaluating the likelihood of viral transmission within transportation systems may be a substantial challenge, considering the complex processes that influence the incidence of random transmission events. This paper introduces a method for determining the probability of pathogen transmission in public transport, focusing on the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The study draws on scenarios from the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland, a period that was devastatingly marked by the lack of available vaccines. This study aims to add value to the scientific community by offering an estimation of the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in public transport and a preliminary risk assessment for COVID-19 infection, considering the number of active, non-isolated COVID-19 cases in the Polish population. The potential of this approach was demonstrated through a comparison between two different categories of passenger transport in a city bus. Based on the presented case study and the calculated probability of pathogen transmission, it is estimated that the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland through the use of public transport was approximately 0.05%. Probability estimations based on elementary events, which can vary depending on the service category (for instance, the form of ticket purchase, availability of seating or standing places, or ticket inspection), can reveal even the smallest differences in the total likelihood of pathogen transmission. However, these minute individual variations significantly impact the total metrics calculated for daily users of public transport. For effective monitoring of potential epidemic threats and for designing suitable interventions and restrictions to lower the risk of future pandemics, it may be necessary to understand the role that transportation systems, particularly public transport systems, play in the spread of pathogens.
全球2019冠状病毒病大流行揭示了社会挑战,客运迅速受到病毒的影响,交通安全概念也发生了变化。考虑到影响随机传播事件发生率的复杂过程,评估病毒在运输系统内传播的可能性可能是一项重大挑战。本文以SARS-CoV-2病毒为例,介绍了一种确定公共交通中病原体传播概率的方法。该研究借鉴了波兰COVID-19大流行的第一波和第二波情景,这一时期的严重特点是缺乏可用的疫苗。考虑到波兰人口中活跃的、非隔离的COVID-19病例的数量,本研究旨在通过估计公共交通中SARS-CoV-2传播的可能性和对COVID-19感染的初步风险评估,为科学界增加价值。通过对一辆城市公交车上两种不同类型的乘客运输进行比较,证明了这种方法的潜力。基于上述案例研究和病原体传播的计算概率,估计在波兰第二波COVID-19大流行期间通过使用公共交通工具感染SARS-CoV-2的概率约为0.05%。基于基本事件的概率估计可能因服务类别而异(例如,购票形式、座位或站立位置的可用性,或检票),甚至可以揭示病原体传播总可能性的最小差异。然而,这些微小的个体差异会显著影响为公共交通日常用户计算的总体指标。为了有效监测潜在的流行病威胁并设计适当的干预措施和限制措施以降低未来流行病的风险,可能有必要了解运输系统,特别是公共交通系统在病原体传播中的作用。
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引用次数: 1
THE INFLUENCE OF INTAKE VALVE CLOSE TIMING ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE OF A SPARK IGNITION ENGINE USING GASOLINE AND NATURAL GAS 进气门关闭正时对汽油和天然气火花点火发动机环境性能的影响
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.15
Tadas VIPARTAS, Alfredas RIMKUS, Jonas MATIJOŠIUS
The tightening of environmental requirements has forced car manufacturers to look for various ways to reduce exhaust gas emissions. The existing structural solutions of internal combustion engines allow this type of pollution to be reduced by adjusting the intake valve timing. This is especially relevant when it comes to reducing spark ignition engine emissions when using natural gas as fuel. In this study, a wide range of intake valve timing adjustments from 24° to 54° every six crank angle degrees was taken at a constant engine speed (n = 2500 rpm) and different loads and fixed excess air ratios (λ = 1). The changes in oxygen (O2), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (NOx), methane (CH4), and propane (C3H8) gas emissions were observed in the aforementioned intake valve timing range.
环保要求的收紧迫使汽车制造商寻找各种方法来减少废气排放。现有的内燃机结构解决方案允许通过调整进气门正时来减少这种污染。当使用天然气作为燃料时,这尤其与减少火花点火发动机排放有关。在本研究中,在恒定发动机转速(n = 2500 rpm)、不同负载和固定过量空气比(λ = 1)的情况下,每6个曲柄角度进行24°至54°的进气门正时调整。在上述进气门正时范围内,观察了氧气(O2)、一氧化碳(CO)、二氧化碳(CO2)、氧化亚氮(NOx)、甲烷(CH4)和丙烷(C3H8)气体排放的变化。
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引用次数: 0
INTERACTION OF IRREGULARITIES IN THE STANDARD OF SURVEYING AND CARTOGRAPHIC DOCUMENTATION WITH RAIL TRANSPORT PROBLEMS: A CASE STUDY 测量和制图文件标准的不规范与铁路运输问题的相互作用:个案研究
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.06
Arkadiusz KAMPCZYK, Katarzyna ROMBALSKA
Surveying (geodesy) and cartographic documentation, their types, and their flow (circulation) are the basis for the uniformity of the work carried out in the pre-design, design, and execution of construction works, ultimately having a representation in the operational (exploitation) and maintenance of railway infrastructure. The type and circulation of surveying and cartographic documentation constitute an important element for the transport sector. The aim of the present scientific research work was to define the state of irregularity of the standard of uniform surveying-cartographic documentation, their type, and their circulation (Ig-1) in interaction with rail transport problems. A case study method was used corresponding to a factual description, which aimed to analyze and evaluate the existing standard. This is important from a theoretical and, above all, a practical point of view. The results show an extensive space of irregularities occurring, violating legal regulations and professional ethics. At the same time, good practice solutions have been implemented to optimize the negative impact when interacting with rail transport problems. The authors’ position on the irregularities was forwarded to an infrastructure manager. The irregularities that occur significantly contribute to the limitations of surveying and cartographic documentation harmonization, and these have an impact on fully functional rail transport.
测量(大地测量学)和制图文件及其类型和流程(流通)是在建筑工程的预设计、设计和执行中进行的工作一致性的基础,最终在铁路基础设施的运营(开发)和维护中具有代表性。测绘文件的种类和流通是运输部门的一个重要因素。目前科学研究工作的目的是确定统一测绘文件标准的不规范状态,它们的类型和它们的流通(Ig-1)与铁路运输问题的相互作用。案例研究法与事实描述相对应,旨在对现行标准进行分析和评价。从理论和实践的角度来看,这一点很重要。结果显示,违规行为、违反法律法规和职业道德的空间很大。同时,实施了良好的实践解决方案,以优化与铁路运输问题相互作用时的负面影响。提交人关于违规行为的立场已转交给一名基础设施管理人员。发生的不正常情况大大限制了测量和制图文件的协调,并对充分运作的铁路运输产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
MOBILITY OF EMPLOYEES AND STUDENTS IN A UNIVERSITY TOWN IN A POST-COMMUNIST COUNTRY 后共产主义国家大学城中员工和学生的流动性
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.05
Josef KUBÍK, Ottó BARTÓK, Tomáš URBÁNEK
Transportation is undergoing its most significant transformation since the inception of road transport. This transformation is fueled by concerns about climate change and technological advancements. Understanding the current situation in medium-sized cities across Europe is crucial to developing transportation concepts for urban areas within the EU. This study offers insights into the current state of urban mobility in post-communist countries and depicts the current spatial mobility in a medium-sized city. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of selected socioeconomic factors on the mobility of employees and students. This study, conducted in 2019, employed quantitative research methods, including a questionnaire survey. In total, 545 employees and students participated in the survey, representing a significant indicator of mobility in the city of Zlín. Data analysis was performed using nonparametric methods. The results indicate a relationship between respondents’ job classification, age group, transportation time, and choice of means of transport. These findings can be applied to countries with similar historical and cultural development backgrounds, such as Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia.
交通运输正在经历自公路运输开始以来最重大的变革。对气候变化和技术进步的担忧推动了这种转变。了解欧洲中等城市的现状对于制定欧盟城市地区的交通概念至关重要。本研究提供了对后共产主义国家城市流动性现状的见解,并描绘了一个中等城市当前的空间流动性。本研究的目的是评估选定的社会经济因素对员工和学生流动的影响。这项研究于2019年进行,采用了定量研究方法,包括问卷调查。总共有545名员工和学生参与了调查,这是Zlín城市流动性的一个重要指标。数据分析采用非参数方法。结果表明,受访者的职业分类、年龄、交通时间和交通方式的选择之间存在一定的关系。这些发现可以应用于具有相似历史和文化发展背景的国家,如波兰、匈牙利和斯洛伐克。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 AND LONG-DISTANCE COACH SERVICES IN EUROPE: THE IMPACT OF CHANGING PASSENGER BEHAVIOR 2019冠状病毒病与欧洲长途客车服务:乘客行为变化的影响
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.10
Michał TARACHA, Laurent GUIHÉRY
The aim of this study is to present the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis in the long-distance coach market in Europe. Firstly, the literature review depicts the dynamic situation of European long-distance transport service providers. It is reiterated that the disruptions to long-distance coach transport triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic are multidimensional. Secondly, 10 econometric panel models, including one spatial and two dynamic panel models, were constructed for 505 or 495 regions (depending on the model) of 26 European countries. The analysis allowed us to draw conclusions about the impact of excess mortality, public sentiment, population density, and infrastructure quality on the number of long-distance FlixBus coach departures. Models indicate that increased anxiety associated with COVID-19 leads to a drop in the number of departures even when mortality anomaly is accounted for. Moreover, the number of departures changed more significantly in response to an increased infection rate in 2021 compared to 2020. This may indicate that long-distance coach companies were encouraged to implement new policies aiming at a lower frequency of trips, thereby increasing certainty that planned departures would not be canceled at the last minute. This can serve as an evidence of a shift in companies’ focus towards greater flexibility of their offers.
本研究的目的是展示COVID-19危机对欧洲长途客车市场的影响。首先,文献综述描述了欧洲长途运输服务提供商的动态情况。会议重申,2019冠状病毒病大流行对长途客车运输造成的干扰是多方面的。其次,针对欧洲26个国家的505或495个地区(根据不同的模型)构建了10个计量面板模型,其中包括1个空间面板模型和2个动态面板模型。通过分析,我们得出了关于死亡率过高、公众情绪、人口密度和基础设施质量对长途巴士发车数量的影响的结论。模型表明,即使考虑到死亡率异常,与COVID-19相关的焦虑加剧也会导致离境人数下降。此外,与2020年相比,2021年的感染率上升,离境人数发生了更大变化。这可能表明长途客车公司被鼓励实施旨在降低行程频率的新政策,从而增加了计划出发不会在最后一刻取消的确定性。这可以作为一个证据,证明公司正在将重点转向更大的灵活性。
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引用次数: 0
ENHANCING THE ACCESSIBILITY OF RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION FOR INDIVIDUALS WITH PHYSICAL DISABILITIES 提高残疾人铁路运输无障碍水平
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.18
Paulina GAJEWSKA, Irena SZEWCZYK, Georgios KOULOURIS
The purpose of public mass transport is the general accessibility for all of its users. The lack of (or insufficient adjustment of) the tourist transport infrastructure to the needs of persons with disabilities and seniors is an obstacle to their free movement. The aim of this article is to determine to what extent the railway infrastructure is adjusted to the needs of disabled persons and what problems these persons struggle with most frequently. The aim of this article is to determine and discuss various aspects of disability. The primary research method used in the paper is the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), which is a method used to assess the state of adaptation of the station for people with disabilities. The purpose of the tests is to identify existing and potential defects as well as their causes and effects. Research results verify the degree of adaptation of rail transport for people with disabilities and have diagnostic value. Future research should focus on the full usability of transport infrastructure for people with disabilities. The results of the current research have a number of practical implications, mainly for people involved in the transport industry. Building awareness regarding problems related to the mobility of people with disabilities, sensitize to the needs and challenges of such people has significant social implications. This paper has cognitive value for the development of knowledge, science, and quality in terms of adapting transport for people with disabilities. To achieve the study’s purpose, the FMEA was conducted on the example of the main railway station in Bielsko-Biała, Poland. Suggestions were also formulated to allow persons with disabilities to use railway transport to a greater extent.
公共交通的目的是为所有使用者提供通达性。旅游运输基础设施缺乏(或调整不足)以满足残疾人和老年人的需要,是他们自由行动的障碍。本文的目的是确定铁路基础设施在多大程度上适应了残疾人的需要,以及残疾人最常遇到的问题是什么。本文的目的是确定和讨论残疾的各个方面。本文采用的主要研究方法是失效模式与影响分析(Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, FMEA),这是一种评估残疾人车站适应状态的方法。测试的目的是识别现有的和潜在的缺陷,以及它们的原因和影响。研究结果验证了轨道交通对残疾人的适应程度,具有诊断价值。未来的研究应侧重于残疾人交通基础设施的充分可用性。目前的研究结果有许多实际意义,主要是对从事运输行业的人。提高对与残疾人行动能力有关的问题的认识,对残疾人的需要和挑战保持敏感,具有重大的社会影响。本文对残疾人适应交通的知识、科学和质量的发展具有认知价值。为了达到研究的目的,以波兰Bielsko-Biała主要火车站为例进行了FMEA。提出更多残疾人使用铁路运输的建议。
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引用次数: 0
STUDY OF INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT ROUTING OPTIONS UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY IN NAVIGATIONAL RESTRICTIONS 航行限制不确定条件下内河运输路线选择研究
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.08
Velizara PENCHEVA, Asen ASENOV, Ivan GEORGIEV, Boril IVANOV, Ivelin ZANEV
Given the uncertainty of the navigating conditions on the Danube River, the hydrological situation on the Bulgarian leg of the river is predicted using ARIMA methods. The forecast is based on statistical daily hydrological data for a period of five years. A mathematical routing model is developed under the condition that it is not possible for a self-propelled vessel to continue its voyage due to draft limitation. Options including waiting for navigation opening, partial lightening on a barge, and a complete or partial modal shift to rail or road transport through an alternative port are considered. An acceptable option is determined, taking into account the additional costs and transit time. A routing simulation is made using SPSS software.
考虑到多瑙河航行条件的不确定性,使用ARIMA方法预测了多瑙河保加利亚段的水文情况。预报是基于5年的每日水文统计数据。建立了自行船受吃水限制不能继续航行的情况下的数学路线模型。备选方案包括等待通航、在驳船上进行部分减载,以及通过另一个港口将运输方式全部或部分转为铁路或公路运输。考虑到额外的成本和运输时间,确定了一个可接受的选择。利用SPSS软件进行了路由仿真。
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引用次数: 0
SIMULATION METHOD FOR MEASURING THE IMPACT ENERGY OF RAIL VEHICLES EQUIPPED WITH A SOFT ABSORBER 安装软减震器的轨道车辆冲击能的仿真测量方法
Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.20858/tp.2023.18.3.02
Aleksandra LISOWSKA, Henryk SANECKI, Maciej SZKODA
This paper presents a simulation method for testing the energy absorbed by the absorption systems of rail vehicles equipped with a soft absorber. The method makes it possible to verify the actual behavior of the absorption system during the impact of two vehicles. The first part of this paper describes the structural elements of a railway vehicle performing the function of an energy absorber during an impact according to the EN 15227 standard. A soft absorber, the so-called honeycomb, is analyzed in detail. It is a multicellular structure often used in rail vehicles due to its properties of controlled deformation. The literature review describes the research conducted on this element. The analytical part of this paper describes a general mathematical model of a rail vehicle collision according to Scenario 1, in which the collided vehicles are of the same type, and Scenario 2 for vehicles of different types. A computational impact simulation for the two scenarios has been carried out using the specialist software Mathcad, and the results are presented in graphs. The paper ends with conclusions presenting the application possibilities of the developed tool.
本文提出了一种测试安装软减振器的轨道车辆吸收系统吸收能量的仿真方法。该方法使验证吸收系统在两车碰撞时的实际行为成为可能。本文的第一部分描述了根据en15227标准在碰撞中执行能量吸收功能的轨道车辆的结构元件。详细分析了一种称为蜂窝的软吸收器。由于具有控制变形的特性,它是一种多胞体结构,常用于轨道车辆。文献综述描述了对该元素进行的研究。本文的分析部分根据情景一,碰撞车辆为同一类型,场景二,碰撞车辆为不同类型,描述了轨道车辆碰撞的一般数学模型。使用专业软件Mathcad对这两种情况进行了计算冲击模拟,并以图表形式展示了结果。文章最后总结了该工具的应用前景。
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引用次数: 0
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Transport Problems
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