Pub Date : 2023-09-15DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2253083
Published in International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence (Vol. 36, No. 4, 2023)
发表于《国际情报与反情报杂志》(第36卷第4期，2023年)
{"title":"Index for Volume 36","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2253083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2253083","url":null,"abstract":"Published in International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence (Vol. 36, No. 4, 2023)","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138512188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-13DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2253120
David R. Mandel, Daniel Irwin
For the last half-century, the U.S. and Allied Intelligence Community (IC) has sought to minimize the ostensibly detrimental effects of cognitive biases on intelligence practice. The dominant approach has been to develop structured analytic techniques (SATs), teach them to analysts in brief training sessions, provide the means to use SATs on the job, and hope they work. The SAT approach, however, suffers from severe conceptual problems and a paucity of support from scientific research. For example, a highly promoted SAT—the analysis of competing hypotheses—was shown in several recent studies to either not improve judgment quality or to make it worse. This article recaps the key problems with the SAT approach and sketches some alternative interventions. At the core of these proposals is the idea that intelligence agencies should be focused broadly on improving intelligence and not narrowly on minimizing bias. While the latter contributes to achieving the former, overemphasis on bias minimization could inadvertently bias agencies toward a singular form of intervention, blinding then from potentially more effective interventions. Two lines of alternative intervention are sketched. The first line focuses on postanalytic statistical optimization methods such as recalibration and performance-weighted aggregation of analysts’ judgments. The second line focuses on a broad human augmentation program to optimize human cognition through better sleep, exercise, nutrition (including nootropic compounds), and biometric tracking. Both lines of effort would require substantial scientific investment by the IC to examine risks and efficacy.
{"title":"Beyond Bias Minimization: Improving Intelligence with Optimization and Human Augmentation","authors":"David R. Mandel, Daniel Irwin","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2253120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2253120","url":null,"abstract":"For the last half-century, the U.S. and Allied Intelligence Community (IC) has sought to minimize the ostensibly detrimental effects of cognitive biases on intelligence practice. The dominant approach has been to develop structured analytic techniques (SATs), teach them to analysts in brief training sessions, provide the means to use SATs on the job, and hope they work. The SAT approach, however, suffers from severe conceptual problems and a paucity of support from scientific research. For example, a highly promoted SAT—the analysis of competing hypotheses—was shown in several recent studies to either not improve judgment quality or to make it worse. This article recaps the key problems with the SAT approach and sketches some alternative interventions. At the core of these proposals is the idea that intelligence agencies should be focused broadly on improving intelligence and not narrowly on minimizing bias. While the latter contributes to achieving the former, overemphasis on bias minimization could inadvertently bias agencies toward a singular form of intervention, blinding then from potentially more effective interventions. Two lines of alternative intervention are sketched. The first line focuses on postanalytic statistical optimization methods such as recalibration and performance-weighted aggregation of analysts’ judgments. The second line focuses on a broad human augmentation program to optimize human cognition through better sleep, exercise, nutrition (including nootropic compounds), and biometric tracking. Both lines of effort would require substantial scientific investment by the IC to examine risks and efficacy.","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135733964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-11DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2247831
Marianne Taflinger
Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Additional informationNotes on contributorsMarianne TaflingerMarianne Taflinger is a Research Associate at the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, Naval Postgraduate School. She earned a master’s degree in public administration from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and has published in several journals. The author can be contacted at mtafling@nps.edu.Notes1 Stuart Hall, Cultural Studies 1983: A Theoretical History, edited by Jennifer Daryl Slack and Lawrence Grossberg (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 2016), p. 33, as quoted in Shaffer The Handbook of Asian Intelligence Cultures, p. xvi.2 Irena Chiru, “National Intelligence Cultures,” in The Conduct of Intelligence in Democracies: Processes, Practices, edited by Florina Christiana Matei and Carolyn Halladay (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2019), pp. 214–215.3 Shuja Nawaz, Who Controls Pakistan’s Security Forces?, Special Report 297 (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace, December 2011), p. 4.4 Bidanda M. Chengappa, “The ISI Role in Pakistan’s Politics,” Strategic Analysis, Vol. 23, No. 11 (2000).
点击增大图片尺寸点击缩小图片尺寸附加信息撰稿人备注玛丽安·塔夫林格玛丽安·塔夫林格是海军研究生院国土防御与安全中心的研究员。她在米德尔伯里国际研究学院获得公共管理硕士学位，并在多家期刊上发表过文章。联系作者:mtafling@nps.edu.Notes1 Stuart Hall，《文化研究1983:理论史》，由Jennifer Daryl Slack和Lawrence Grossberg编辑(Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 2016)，第33页，引用自Shaffer The Handbook of Asian Intelligence Cultures，第xi - 2页Irena Chiru，“国家情报文化”，在民主国家的情报行为:过程，实践，由Florina Christiana Matei和Carolyn Halladay编辑(博尔德，CO: Lynne Rienner, 2019)，第214-215.3 Shuja Nawaz，谁控制巴基斯坦的安全部队?Bidanda M. Chengappa，“ISI在巴基斯坦政治中的作用”，《战略分析》，第23卷，第11期(2000年)。
{"title":"Shadows and Light: Asian Intelligence","authors":"Marianne Taflinger","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2247831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2247831","url":null,"abstract":"Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Additional informationNotes on contributorsMarianne TaflingerMarianne Taflinger is a Research Associate at the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, Naval Postgraduate School. She earned a master’s degree in public administration from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and has published in several journals. The author can be contacted at mtafling@nps.edu.Notes1 Stuart Hall, Cultural Studies 1983: A Theoretical History, edited by Jennifer Daryl Slack and Lawrence Grossberg (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 2016), p. 33, as quoted in Shaffer The Handbook of Asian Intelligence Cultures, p. xvi.2 Irena Chiru, “National Intelligence Cultures,” in The Conduct of Intelligence in Democracies: Processes, Practices, edited by Florina Christiana Matei and Carolyn Halladay (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2019), pp. 214–215.3 Shuja Nawaz, Who Controls Pakistan’s Security Forces?, Special Report 297 (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace, December 2011), p. 4.4 Bidanda M. Chengappa, “The ISI Role in Pakistan’s Politics,” Strategic Analysis, Vol. 23, No. 11 (2000).","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135981164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-11DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2248577
Olga Bertelsen
{"title":"Ukrainian Nationalist Movement and Soviet Counterinsurgency Operations","authors":"Olga Bertelsen","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2248577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2248577","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135980026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2250240
James J. Wirtz
{"title":"Intelligence Oversight across the Anglosphere","authors":"James J. Wirtz","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2250240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2250240","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75609771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2243803
Markus Denzler
{"title":"Revisiting the Psychology of Structured Analytical Techniques","authors":"Markus Denzler","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2243803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2243803","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72702966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-30DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2241308
Michael J. Ard
{"title":"Structured Analytic Techniques: A Pragmatic Approach","authors":"Michael J. Ard","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2241308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2241308","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91187626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-29DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2246649
W. T. Murphy
{"title":"Forty Years of Soviet Spying in NATO: A Preliminary Study","authors":"W. T. Murphy","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2246649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2246649","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85967827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-28DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2241307
P. Granhag
{"title":"Training Intelligence Officers to Detect Deception and Elicit Information","authors":"P. Granhag","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2241307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2241307","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84854039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-28DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2245708
M. Goodman
{"title":"Finding a “Deep State Structure” in the Intelligence Community","authors":"M. Goodman","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2245708","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2245708","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87072500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：