Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-5-25
S. Drobyshevsky, M. Kazakova, E. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, P. Trunin, N. Fokin
The paper estimates the trajectory of trend inflation for Russia. A discussion of inflation measures used in macroeconomic models is presented, as well as the analysis of theoretical and empirical models that include a trend inflation indicator for monetary policy analysis. The paper also provides an overview of the use of trend inflation by monetary authorities of developed countries and emerging markets. Based on the methodology for assessing trend inflation with the help of models of unobservable components, the Kalman filter and including structural factors, the trajectory of trend inflation for the Russian economy from the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2021 is obtained. In addition, the paper provides a historical decomposition of cyclical inflation into structural shocks, as well as the decomposition of the variance of its forecast error into the considered shocks for 24 months in advance. The results of the econometric analysis testify in favor of a gradual decrease in the trend inflation rate to 4% per year after the 2015 crisis and further stabilization at this level. The situation in 2022 can be analyzed by analogy with the period of 2014—2015, one can expect a similar scenario for trend and actual inflation to return to pre-crisis levels in 2022 within one year (by March 2023).
{"title":"Trend inflation: Estimates for the Russian economy","authors":"S. Drobyshevsky, M. Kazakova, E. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, P. Trunin, N. Fokin","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-5-25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-5-25","url":null,"abstract":"The paper estimates the trajectory of trend inflation for Russia. A discussion of inflation measures used in macroeconomic models is presented, as well as the analysis of theoretical and empirical models that include a trend inflation indicator for monetary policy analysis. The paper also provides an overview of the use of trend inflation by monetary authorities of developed countries and emerging markets. Based on the methodology for assessing trend inflation with the help of models of unobservable components, the Kalman filter and including structural factors, the trajectory of trend inflation for the Russian economy from the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2021 is obtained. In addition, the paper provides a historical decomposition of cyclical inflation into structural shocks, as well as the decomposition of the variance of its forecast error into the considered shocks for 24 months in advance. The results of the econometric analysis testify in favor of a gradual decrease in the trend inflation rate to 4% per year after the 2015 crisis and further stabilization at this level. The situation in 2022 can be analyzed by analogy with the period of 2014—2015, one can expect a similar scenario for trend and actual inflation to return to pre-crisis levels in 2022 within one year (by March 2023).","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47438304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-86-104
A. Lukyanova
The paper investigates recent developments in the minimum wage policy in Russia. We focus on the effects of two interventions: (1) the decision of the Russian Constitutional Court of December 7, 2017 to exclude mandatory regional compensation payments and Northern allowances from the minimum wage; (2) the decision to equate the national minimum wage with the subsistence level through two hikes in early 2018. Our empirical analysis is based on the data for 2016Q1—2022Q1, covering the period before and after the interventions. The decision of the Constitutional Court introduced an additional tier of minimum wage setting. Formerly, minimum wages were regionalized in a decentralizedway via tripartite collective bargaining at the regional level. Since 2018, this approach has been supplemented with the centralized regionalization via mandatory regional coefficients. The decision to equate the minimum wage with the subsistence level also contributed to the increase in centralization as it reduced the room the social partners to set regional minima above the federal level. As a result, the regionalization via regional tripartite agreements has basically ceased to exist, although before 2018 it showed a decent ability to adapt to local conditions. Policy developments in 2017—2018 reduced the interregional variation in the bindingness and purchasingpower of minimum wages. However, it might have happened at the expense of economically weak regions. In poor regions, the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage has exceeded 50%, which exacerbates the risks of disemployment and welfare losses in those regions.
{"title":"Centralization and regionalization of minimum wages: Evidence from Russia","authors":"A. Lukyanova","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-86-104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-86-104","url":null,"abstract":"The paper investigates recent developments in the minimum wage policy in Russia. We focus on the effects of two interventions: (1) the decision of the Russian Constitutional Court of December 7, 2017 to exclude mandatory regional compensation payments and Northern allowances from the minimum wage; (2) the decision to equate the national minimum wage with the subsistence level through two hikes in early 2018. Our empirical analysis is based on the data for 2016Q1—2022Q1, covering the period before and after the interventions. The decision of the Constitutional Court introduced an additional tier of minimum wage setting. Formerly, minimum wages were regionalized in a decentralizedway via tripartite collective bargaining at the regional level. Since 2018, this approach has been supplemented with the centralized regionalization via mandatory regional coefficients. The decision to equate the minimum wage with the subsistence level also contributed to the increase in centralization as it reduced the room the social partners to set regional minima above the federal level. As a result, the regionalization via regional tripartite agreements has basically ceased to exist, although before 2018 it showed a decent ability to adapt to local conditions. Policy developments in 2017—2018 reduced the interregional variation in the bindingness and purchasingpower of minimum wages. However, it might have happened at the expense of economically weak regions. In poor regions, the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage has exceeded 50%, which exacerbates the risks of disemployment and welfare losses in those regions.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48135137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-105-122
D. Konoplev
The paper, using the example of publications in federal periodicals in the period from 1991 to 2022, examines the process of formation and transformation of economic thinking paradigms that have gone from a liberal economic agenda that promotes the values of private property and market reforms to an administrative concept that brings paternalistic sentiments to the fore and pro-government stance. The content analysis and sentiment analysis of the texts, carried out by the author, show that over the three decades of post-Soviet transformations, not only the economic ideas broadcast through periodicals have noticeably transformed, but also the emotive field of these ideas has changed sign from negative to positive context. The conclusion is drawn about the prospects for such a transformation, which inevitably leads to the consolidation in the public mind of the principles of learned helplessness and a return to the argumentative constructions of the Soviet period with the dominant role of distribution motives and state support for the economy. The results showed that the increase in the subjectivity of the media in the representation of economic topics during periods of dominance of paradigms and the intention of periodicals for objectivity during the period of paradigm transition.
{"title":"Paradigms of economic thinking in journalism: The post-Soviet transformations’ experience","authors":"D. Konoplev","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-105-122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-105-122","url":null,"abstract":"The paper, using the example of publications in federal periodicals in the period from 1991 to 2022, examines the process of formation and transformation of economic thinking paradigms that have gone from a liberal economic agenda that promotes the values of private property and market reforms to an administrative concept that brings paternalistic sentiments to the fore and pro-government stance. The content analysis and sentiment analysis of the texts, carried out by the author, show that over the three decades of post-Soviet transformations, not only the economic ideas broadcast through periodicals have noticeably transformed, but also the emotive field of these ideas has changed sign from negative to positive context. The conclusion is drawn about the prospects for such a transformation, which inevitably leads to the consolidation in the public mind of the principles of learned helplessness and a return to the argumentative constructions of the Soviet period with the dominant role of distribution motives and state support for the economy. The results showed that the increase in the subjectivity of the media in the representation of economic topics during periods of dominance of paradigms and the intention of periodicals for objectivity during the period of paradigm transition.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48811373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-123-131
A. Kolganov
The article is devoted to the critique of K. Marx’s labor theory of value, which was started in 1884 by F. G. Wicksteed. This polemic is based on a misunderstanding of the scientific abstraction method and the dialectics of Marx. His opponents critisize Marx for not using the notion of “abstract utility”. It is shown why the exchange value of goods should be based on socially necessary labor costs. The subjective utility value is not suitable to determine the proportions of exchange.
{"title":"Criticism of the labor theory of value: A new look at the old controversy","authors":"A. Kolganov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-123-131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-123-131","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the critique of K. Marx’s labor theory of value, which was started in 1884 by F. G. Wicksteed. This polemic is based on a misunderstanding of the scientific abstraction method and the dialectics of Marx. His opponents critisize Marx for not using the notion of “abstract utility”. It is shown why the exchange value of goods should be based on socially necessary labor costs. The subjective utility value is not suitable to determine the proportions of exchange.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45699980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-132-145
O. Bessonova
The article shows that ideology in Russia launches the mechanism of transition from one institutional cycle to another, since the image of the future in it is associated with the denial of the existing order. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the ideology of socialism, which denies private property, contributed to the rooting of the razdatok (distributive) economy, which has been the base of Russian state since its inception. At the end of the twentieth century, the ideology of Russian liberalism led to the introduction of market institutions into the Russian economy, but as a result, a quasi-market rent based economy was formed. Such a model has become, both at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, and at the present time, the cause of economic stagnation and social polarization. A hypothesis is put forward that at the present moment, the existing socio-economic mechanism performs an auxiliary and temporary role of a “shell” for the maturation of a new development model, which will cause a transition to a new institutional cycle based on the “contractual razdatok economy” and the ideology of solidarism.
{"title":"The influence of ideology on the choice of Russia’s institutional model: Retrospective and forecast","authors":"O. Bessonova","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-132-145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-132-145","url":null,"abstract":"The article shows that ideology in Russia launches the mechanism of transition from one institutional cycle to another, since the image of the future in it is associated with the denial of the existing order. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the ideology of socialism, which denies private property, contributed to the rooting of the razdatok (distributive) economy, which has been the base of Russian state since its inception. At the end of the twentieth century, the ideology of Russian liberalism led to the introduction of market institutions into the Russian economy, but as a result, a quasi-market rent based economy was formed. Such a model has become, both at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, and at the present time, the cause of economic stagnation and social polarization. A hypothesis is put forward that at the present moment, the existing socio-economic mechanism performs an auxiliary and temporary role of a “shell” for the maturation of a new development model, which will cause a transition to a new institutional cycle based on the “contractual razdatok economy” and the ideology of solidarism.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":"64 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41283605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-45-58
A. Komissarov
The paper reviews historical and modern understanding of meritocracy and meritocratic approaches and practices in the application to the selection of political leaders and governmental officials. A theoretical framework of analyzing meritocracy in the modern science is also considered from the stand-point of various disciplines such as economics, political science, sociology, and as applied to the quality of human capital. Meritocratic principles of selecting candidates for positions in public service in the Western countries differ a lot from the ones used in China and Singapore. China partly revitalizes its ancient traditions of meritocracy, and partly adopts the experience of Singapore where meritocratic principles form the basis of state governance, and where the system of education is oriented at selection and training of the most capable candidates. However, in both countries meritocracy has not yet helped to solve many existing problems, and even more — it creates new concerns and challenges. Therefore, it becomes essential to discuss whether Singapore meritocratic approach is transferable to other countries.
{"title":"Meritocratic principles of governmental officials selection: Historical aspect and modern applications","authors":"A. Komissarov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-45-58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-45-58","url":null,"abstract":"The paper reviews historical and modern understanding of meritocracy and meritocratic approaches and practices in the application to the selection of political leaders and governmental officials. A theoretical framework of analyzing meritocracy in the modern science is also considered from the stand-point of various disciplines such as economics, political science, sociology, and as applied to the quality of human capital. Meritocratic principles of selecting candidates for positions in public service in the Western countries differ a lot from the ones used in China and Singapore. China partly revitalizes its ancient traditions of meritocracy, and partly adopts the experience of Singapore where meritocratic principles form the basis of state governance, and where the system of education is oriented at selection and training of the most capable candidates. However, in both countries meritocracy has not yet helped to solve many existing problems, and even more — it creates new concerns and challenges. Therefore, it becomes essential to discuss whether Singapore meritocratic approach is transferable to other countries.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42677725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-06DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-5-23
M. Ershov
The year 2022 was characterized by a number of significant processes and events that made it possible to reveal the stability of the Russian and world economies. Thirty years ago Russia started moving to the market that marked the beginning of radical changes and transformations of the Russian economy and laid the basis for long-term trends that we are still observing. The liberalization of prices and the subsequent introduction of a single exchange rate regime, large-scale entry into the global financial system, and the strengthening of market principles of interaction of economic agents determined the contours of further development of the Russian economy. This was followed by a real test of strength — through a period of local and global crises, and in the sanctions of 2022, this “testing” has reached its apogee. The pandemic shock was replaced by a large-scale geopolitical tension due to the events in Ukraine. Russian assets were frozen, the existing system of world economic relations was massively deformed, and the Russian economy is forced to rebuild the mechanisms and foundations of its domestic and international development. At the same time, RF has the potential for forming new points of support, and it should be used more actively.
{"title":"Russian economy in the face of new sanctions challenges","authors":"M. Ershov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-5-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-5-23","url":null,"abstract":"The year 2022 was characterized by a number of significant processes and events that made it possible to reveal the stability of the Russian and world economies. Thirty years ago Russia started moving to the market that marked the beginning of radical changes and transformations of the Russian economy and laid the basis for long-term trends that we are still observing. The liberalization of prices and the subsequent introduction of a single exchange rate regime, large-scale entry into the global financial system, and the strengthening of market principles of interaction of economic agents determined the contours of further development of the Russian economy. This was followed by a real test of strength — through a period of local and global crises, and in the sanctions of 2022, this “testing” has reached its apogee. The pandemic shock was replaced by a large-scale geopolitical tension due to the events in Ukraine. Russian assets were frozen, the existing system of world economic relations was massively deformed, and the Russian economy is forced to rebuild the mechanisms and foundations of its domestic and international development. At the same time, RF has the potential for forming new points of support, and it should be used more actively.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45304603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-06DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-137-150
V. Tambovtsev
The purpose of the article is to compare the content of the phenomenon, called the crisis of scientific publications, in the world and domestic economic and social sciences. It is shown that in the world science the disproportionate increase in prices for subscription publications is determined by purely market reasons, while in Russian science the reduction in demand for traditional journals is associated with a decrease in demand for high-quality scientific knowledge, which, in turn, is due to the measures of neoliberal science policy applied. Scenarios for the development of the situation with peer-reviewed domestic economic journals are proposed and evaluated.
{"title":"Crisis of scientific publications during the neoliberal science policy period","authors":"V. Tambovtsev","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-137-150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-137-150","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the article is to compare the content of the phenomenon, called the crisis of scientific publications, in the world and domestic economic and social sciences. It is shown that in the world science the disproportionate increase in prices for subscription publications is determined by purely market reasons, while in Russian science the reduction in demand for traditional journals is associated with a decrease in demand for high-quality scientific knowledge, which, in turn, is due to the measures of neoliberal science policy applied. Scenarios for the development of the situation with peer-reviewed domestic economic journals are proposed and evaluated.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43339466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-02DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-24-43
E. Vinokurov, M. Grichik
The freezing of Russia’s international reserve assets, the world’s seventh largest, despite not being the first case of its kind, will have systemic impact on the way countries around the world treat their reserves. Financial sanctions have undermined confidence in traditional reserve currencies. A systemic and complete revision of the conceptual approaches to managing international reserve assets is due. The current framework of the international financial system does not offer any off-the-shelf solutions to enable safeguarding the integrity of reserves and maintaining macroeconomic stability. The paper proposes potential new approaches to the safety of reserve assets. It could be implemented through the diversification of instruments and operators. The paper examines several possible solutions that might complement/replace reserves in traditional reserve currencies, ranging from compromise solutions to unconventional ones: (1) expanding the use of existing tools which carry less risk, (2) introducing new instruments, and (3) changing the paradigm. The authors conclude that the resulting system will be more volatile, decentralized, complicated and expensive to manage. However, this is the price many countries would be willing to pay for the security of their reserves.
{"title":"New concept of international reserve assets: Security, diversification and nonconventional approaches","authors":"E. Vinokurov, M. Grichik","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-24-43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-24-43","url":null,"abstract":"The freezing of Russia’s international reserve assets, the world’s seventh largest, despite not being the first case of its kind, will have systemic impact on the way countries around the world treat their reserves. Financial sanctions have undermined confidence in traditional reserve currencies. A systemic and complete revision of the conceptual approaches to managing international reserve assets is due. The current framework of the international financial system does not offer any off-the-shelf solutions to enable safeguarding the integrity of reserves and maintaining macroeconomic stability. The paper proposes potential new approaches to the safety of reserve assets. It could be implemented through the diversification of instruments and operators. The paper examines several possible solutions that might complement/replace reserves in traditional reserve currencies, ranging from compromise solutions to unconventional ones: (1) expanding the use of existing tools which carry less risk, (2) introducing new instruments, and (3) changing the paradigm. The authors conclude that the resulting system will be more volatile, decentralized, complicated and expensive to manage. However, this is the price many countries would be willing to pay for the security of their reserves.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45099007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-02DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-118-136
M. Mamedli, A. V. Umnov
The paper considers the application of the web scrapping and machine learning algorithms for the assessment of the real estate price on the secondary housing market in Moscow. For this, we collect and process the data from the CIAN website and the data from “Reforma GKH”. To evaluate real estate objects, we consider such machine learning algorithms as Elastic Net, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting. We also apply Shapley vector-based approach to interpret the results of the black-box algorithms. The results suggest that the use of black-box algorithms in assessing the price of apartments on the Moscow secondary housing market allows to obtain more accurate price estimates both for different price segments and for the sample as a whole. At the same time, Gradient Boosting has demonstrated the best accuracy among other algorithms. Interpretation based on the Shapley vector shows that the total area, year of construction, ceiling height, renovation, as well as monolithic construction technology had a positive effect on the price. The price is negatively affected by the number of floors in the house, the possibility of mortgage and lack of repairs. Developed methodology can be applied in real estate insurance, mortgage, determination of cadastral value of real estate and others.
{"title":"Real estate valuation based on big data","authors":"M. Mamedli, A. V. Umnov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-118-136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-118-136","url":null,"abstract":"The paper considers the application of the web scrapping and machine learning algorithms for the assessment of the real estate price on the secondary housing market in Moscow. For this, we collect and process the data from the CIAN website and the data from “Reforma GKH”. To evaluate real estate objects, we consider such machine learning algorithms as Elastic Net, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting. We also apply Shapley vector-based approach to interpret the results of the black-box algorithms. The results suggest that the use of black-box algorithms in assessing the price of apartments on the Moscow secondary housing market allows to obtain more accurate price estimates both for different price segments and for the sample as a whole. At the same time, Gradient Boosting has demonstrated the best accuracy among other algorithms. Interpretation based on the Shapley vector shows that the total area, year of construction, ceiling height, renovation, as well as monolithic construction technology had a positive effect on the price. The price is negatively affected by the number of floors in the house, the possibility of mortgage and lack of repairs. Developed methodology can be applied in real estate insurance, mortgage, determination of cadastral value of real estate and others.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43558203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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