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Economics of banks and financial markets (Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences 2022) 银行与金融市场经济学(2022年诺贝尔经济科学纪念奖)
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-2-5-17
K. Sonin
The article provides a brief introduction to the research on banks and finan- cial crises, for which the 2022 Nobel prize in economic sciences was awarded. Forty years ago, the works of Diamond and Dybvig highlighted the critical role banks play in maturity transformation and explained why this role makes banking crises a natural byproduct, thus providing a theoretical basis for modern banking regulation. The concurrent work by Bernanke on the Great Depression, the worst peace-time economic crisis in mature market economies, demonstrated that banks’ closures were a critical factor in making the depression so deep and prolonged.
本文简要介绍了获得2022年诺贝尔经济学奖的银行与金融危机研究。四十年前,戴蒙德和迪布维格的著作强调了银行在期限转换中的关键作用,并解释了为什么这一作用使银行危机成为自然的副产品,从而为现代银行监管提供了理论基础。与此同时,伯南克对成熟市场经济中和平时期最严重的经济危机——大萧条的研究表明,银行的关闭是导致萧条如此严重和持久的关键因素。
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引用次数: 0
Citation metrics: To refuse or use? 引用指标:拒绝还是使用?
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-2-116-126
I. Kalabikhina, G. V. Kalyagin
The article analyzes the use of bibliometric indicators to evaluate the work of scientists. We answer the question of why bibliometric assessments of scientific work have become so widespread in recent decades; also, we consider the pros and cons of such assessments from the point of view of public welfare. The paper gives recommendations for reforming the current system of assessing the effectiveness of scientific work. It is necessary to minimize reporting on publications and citations and not create conditions for a race in the number of citations and articles. Since citations of scientific papers have a delay, the assessment of published articles based on bibliometrics should have a lag of 1 to 5 years, depending on the research area. Publication in a scientific journal should not be the only form of presenting the results of scientific work: conference reports, reports (including grants), monographs, etc. must also be taken into account. For effective organization of science, formal rules alone are not sufficient; informal institutions are no less important, primarily the institution of scientific reputation. In order to stimulate its development in the Russian scientific community, we offer using the formal institution of vicarious liability — the responsibility of employers for violations of employees. Liability, in this case, means the dependence of state funding of an organization on violations of scientific ethics committed by its researchers. Finally, it is necessary to reinforce the significance of the institution of peer review, making this process more public.
本文分析了文献计量学指标在评价科学家工作中的应用。我们回答了为什么近几十年来科学工作的文献计量学评估变得如此普遍的问题;同时,我们也会从公共福利的角度来考虑这种评估的利弊。本文提出了改革现行科学工作效能评价体系的建议。有必要尽量减少发表和引用的报告,而不是为引用和文章数量的竞争创造条件。由于科学论文的引用有延迟,基于文献计量学的已发表文章的评估应该有1到5年的延迟,具体取决于研究领域。在科学期刊上发表不应该是展示科学工作成果的唯一形式:会议报告、报告(包括拨款)、专著等也必须考虑在内。要有效地组织科学,仅靠形式规则是不够的;非正式制度也同样重要,主要是科学声誉制度。为了促进其在俄罗斯科学界的发展,我们建议采用替代责任的正式制度- -雇主对雇员的违法行为负责。在这种情况下,责任意味着国家对一个组织的资助依赖于其研究人员违反科学伦理的行为。最后,有必要加强同行评议制度的重要性,使这一过程更加公开。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate website as a strategic resource: Comparative analysis of Russian and European companies 企业网站作为战略资源:俄罗斯与欧洲企业的比较分析
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-145-158
S. Paklina
The paper investigates the mechanisms through which companies can gain additional competitive advantages through using a corporate website. We identified statistically significant relationship between financial performance and aggregated metrics of the corporate website based on sample of 1240 European and 1056 Russian companies. The study is implemented in two stages: (1) applying the principal component analysis to conceptualize website metrics and (2) evaluating a regression model with a dummy variable to analyze the relationship between the characteristics of corporate websites and the financial performance of companies. Principal Component Analysis identified two components that reflect the visibility and authority of corporate websites. Regression analysis showed a statistically significant relationship between these characteristics and the company’s revenue. Moreover, for Russian companies we observe that visibility of the company’s website has the highest positive effect on the revenue. On contrary, for European companies’ website’s authority provides the highest increase in its revenue.
本文研究了企业通过使用企业网站获得额外竞争优势的机制。基于1240家欧洲公司和1056家俄罗斯公司的样本,我们确定了财务绩效与企业网站汇总指标之间的统计显著关系。本研究分两个阶段进行:(1)应用主成分分析概念化网站指标;(2)评估带有虚拟变量的回归模型,分析企业网站特征与公司财务绩效之间的关系。主成分分析确定了反映企业网站可见性和权威性的两个组成部分。回归分析显示,这些特征与公司收入之间存在统计学上显著的关系。此外,对于俄罗斯公司,我们观察到公司网站的可见性对收入的积极影响最大。相反,对于欧洲公司来说,网站的权威性为其提供了最高的收入增长。
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引用次数: 0
Micro level of economic coordination processes 微观层面的经济协调进程
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-2-127-144
S. Parinov
Economic agents (humans) exchange information and thus can consider each other’s activities. This allows them to coordinate their activities. This study identifies three basic forms of coordination, depending on the communication options between agents: 1) the contractual form, which is possible with direct communications between agents; 2) the stigmergy, possible with indirect communications; 3) the common rules­based action form, possible in the absence of communications. The presentation of the observed processes of economic coordination as various combinations of these three basic forms corresponds to their description at micro level. Such a micro level representation has signs of a fundamental one, since the proposed three basic forms of coordination fully reflect the diversity of a person’s natural abilities to consider the activities of other people. As an illustration, a description of the known methods of economic coordination (market, hierarchical and network) is presented as combinations of basic forms of coordination. Within the framework of this micro level approach, the features of economic activity are analyzed, which determine the structure and main characteristics of the system of economic coordination processes. The analysis showed that, at the micro level, the processes of economic coordination are a complex hybrid of the three basic forms of coordination. This approach creates a unified methodological basis for the analysis of diverse methods of coordination used in the economy. The results obtained allow one to explore directions for improving coordination processes in the economy.
经济主体(人类)交换信息,从而可以考虑彼此的活动。这使他们能够协调他们的活动。根据代理人之间的沟通选择,本研究确定了三种基本的协调形式:1)代理人之间直接沟通可能形成的合同形式;2) 间接沟通可能带来的污名化;3) 常见的基于规则的行动形式,在没有沟通的情况下可能。观察到的经济协调过程是这三种基本形式的各种组合,这与微观层面的描述相对应。这种微观层面的代表具有根本性的迹象,因为拟议的三种基本协调形式充分反映了一个人考虑他人活动的自然能力的多样性。举例来说,将已知的经济协调方法(市场、层级和网络)描述为协调的基本形式的组合。在这种微观方法的框架内,分析了经济活动的特征,这些特征决定了经济协调过程系统的结构和主要特征。分析表明,在微观层面上,经济协调过程是三种基本协调形式的复杂混合。这种方法为分析经济中使用的各种协调方法创造了统一的方法基础。所获得的结果使人们能够探索改善经济协调过程的方向。
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引用次数: 3
Publication activity of Russian universities: From “academic capitalism” to “academic socialism” 俄罗斯大学出版活动:从“学术资本主义”到“学术社会主义”
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-2-100-115
E. Romanov
In the current geopolitical situation, Russian scientists may face difficulties in publishing the results of their research in foreign journals indexed in leading scientometric databases. Until recently, the productivity of scientific activity of Russian universities was mainly assessed by the number of articles indexed in Scopus and Web of Science, which we consider in the context of the introduction of “academic capitalism”. In particular, in the updated version of the state program “Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation”, one of the targets assumes that Russia will take the 5th place in the world by 2030 in terms of the proportion of articles indexed in international databases. We evaluate the realism of achieving this indicator relative to the number of articles indexed in Scopus. The necessity to change the approach to the assessment of the productivity of scientific activity using the concept of “academic socialism” is substantiated. In the framework of this concept, it is proposed to develop a state program for expanding the number of Russian journals indexed in the world scientometric databases with a guarantee of financial support for the implementation of the Diamond Open Access model — no fee for publication or processing of the article and fully open access to it.
在当前的地缘政治形势下,俄罗斯科学家可能难以将他们的研究成果发表在被主要科学计量数据库收录的外国期刊上。直到最近,俄罗斯大学的科学活动生产力主要是通过Scopus和Web of Science索引的文章数量来评估的,我们认为这是在引入“学术资本主义”的背景下进行的。特别是,在“俄罗斯联邦科学技术发展”国家计划的更新版本中,其中一个目标是,到2030年,俄罗斯在国际数据库中收录的文章比例将达到世界第5位。我们评估了实现这一指标的现实性,相对于Scopus索引的文章数量。论证了用“学术社会主义”概念改变科学活动生产力评价方法的必要性。在这一概念的框架内,建议制定一项国家计划,以扩大在世界科学计量数据库中被索引的俄罗斯期刊的数量,并保证为实施钻石开放获取模式提供财政支持——不收取文章的出版或处理费用,并完全开放获取。
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引用次数: 2
Trade damper effect of regional trade agreements 区域贸易协定的贸易抑制效应
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-2-83-99
V. Zuev, E. Ostrovskaya, V. Skryabina
The authors explore the impact of crises on the dynamics of trade between partners within regional trade agreements (RTAs) with the aim to determine whether RTAs have a stabilizing effect on foreign trade. RTAs have become one of the main instruments of trade policy in recent decades. It is generally recognized that RTAs do stimulate trade at the time of stability and growth. It is logical to assume that meeting commitments between RTA partners should lead to the preservation of trade flows between them in the event of a crisis. However, this statement requires empirical confirmation. The study examines the effects of RTA networks for the three most active RTAs’ participants located on different continents — the EU, Chile and the Republic of Korea. The analysis of dynamics of these countries trade flows indicates a clear trend of strengthening trade interaction between RTA partners during crisis periods. The focus of the methodology of the study lies in computations of three trade indices: export significance index, trade intensity index and symmetric trade introversion index. They were calculated for the totality of trade partners for the EU, Chile and the Republic of Korea from 2005 to 2020 in order to identify the dominant tendencies of trade flows during periods of economic shocks of recent decades (the financial crisis of 2008—2009 and the crisis caused by the pandemic of 2019—2021). The authors come to the conclusion that for the studied countries and the EU RTAs act as a damper that reduces the negative impact of crises on foreign trade. Trade between RTA countries at the time of a crisis either decreased to a lesser extent compared to trade between countries that do not have RTA, or recovered faster. This empirically confirms yet another significant importance of RTAs. The authors suggest to make similar calculations for other countries and RTAs to support the revealed pattern.
作者探讨了危机对区域贸易协定内伙伴之间贸易动态的影响,目的是确定区域贸易协定是否对外贸具有稳定作用。近几十年来,区域贸易协定已成为贸易政策的主要工具之一。人们普遍认为,区域贸易协定确实在稳定和增长时期刺激了贸易。合乎逻辑的假设是,在发生危机时,履行RTA合作伙伴之间的承诺应能保护它们之间的贸易流动。然而,这一说法需要实证证实。该研究考察了RTA网络对位于不同大陆的三个最活跃的RTA参与者——欧盟、智利和大韩民国——的影响。对这些国家贸易流动动态的分析表明,在危机时期,区域贸易协定伙伴之间的贸易互动明显加强。研究方法的重点在于计算三个贸易指数:出口显著性指数、贸易强度指数和对称贸易内向指数。它们是为2005年至2020年欧盟、智利和大韩民国的贸易伙伴总数计算的,目的是确定近几十年经济冲击期间(2008-2009年金融危机和2019-2021年疫情引发的危机)贸易流动的主导趋势。作者得出的结论是,对所研究的国家来说,欧盟区域贸易协定是减少危机对对外贸易负面影响的阻尼器。与没有RTA的国家之间的贸易相比,RTA国家之间在危机发生时的贸易下降幅度较小,或者恢复得更快。这从经验上证实了区域贸易协定的另一个重要意义。作者建议对其他国家和区域贸易协定进行类似的计算,以支持所揭示的模式。
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引用次数: 1
The distributional impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and policy response in Russia 2019冠状病毒病危机的分布影响和俄罗斯的政策应对
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-2-43-60
S. Freije, M. Matytsin, D. Popova
The outbreak of COVID-19 has had severe negative economic impacts on households and businesses in Russia. Russia’s GDP declined by 2,7% in 2020. To mitigate the adverse impacts of the pandemic, in March—June 2020 the govern- ment implemented a number of fiscal and social policy measures aimed at support- ing businesses, employment and incomes of vulnerable groups of the population. This paper presents the results of the impact assessment of the COVID-19 crisis and the related policy interventions on the income distribution and poverty in Russia in 2020. The analysis is based on the tax-benefit microsimulation model for Russia, which allows for assessing the redistributive effects of direct and indirect taxes and transfers in Russia at the federal and regional levels. We find that the net effect of the crisis and policy interventions was strongly progressive at the bottom of the income distribution and equalizing across regions.
新冠肺炎的爆发对俄罗斯的家庭和企业产生了严重的负面经济影响。2020年,俄罗斯国内生产总值下降了2.7%。为了减轻疫情的不利影响,2020年3月至6月,政府实施了一系列财政和社会政策措施,旨在支持弱势群体的商业、就业和收入。本文介绍了新冠肺炎危机的影响评估结果,以及2020年俄罗斯对收入分配和贫困的相关政策干预。该分析基于俄罗斯的税收优惠微观模拟模型,该模型允许在联邦和地区层面评估俄罗斯直接税和间接税以及转移的再分配效应。我们发现,危机和政策干预的净效应在收入分配的底部是强烈的渐进性的,并且在各地区之间是均衡的。
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引用次数: 0
Tax and foreign exchange factors of inequality (To posing a problem) 税收和外汇不平等因素(造成问题)
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-146-159
A. Tanasova, E. Sokolova, I. Shandra, A. V. Chigireva
The high level of income inequality of the population is a long-term problem in the world. The pandemic of 2020 and the growth of geopolitical tensions in 2022 increase the urgency of finding its solution. Inequality is a multifaceted phenomenon determined by various factors — from differences in the structure of economies to the specifics of the mentality and traditions of a particular state. As a result, there are no unified approaches to reducing inequality. This article analyzes the relationship of income inequality in Russia with the parametersof fiscal policy and the ruble exchange rate at different stages of economic development. It is shown that in certain periods taxes are connected differentlywith income inequality of the population in Russia. The important role of social spending in its reducing is shown; such dependence may be explained by the ruble exchange rate and its linkages with the budget policy. The article is setting stage for further analysis of the problem.
人口收入高度不平等是世界上的一个长期问题。2020年的疫情和2022年地缘政治紧张局势的加剧,增加了寻找解决方案的紧迫性。不平等是一种多方面的现象,由各种因素决定——从经济结构的差异到特定国家的心态和传统的细节。因此,没有统一的方法来减少不平等。本文分析了俄罗斯不同经济发展阶段的收入不平等与财政政策参数和卢布汇率的关系。研究表明,在某些时期,税收与俄罗斯人口收入不平等有着不同的联系。显示了社会支出在减少支出方面的重要作用;卢布汇率及其与预算政策的联系可以解释这种依赖性。这篇文章为进一步分析这个问题奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary aggregation: Concept, critics and modern alternatives 货币聚合:概念、批评和现代替代方案
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-26-44
S. Moiseev
The concept of monetary aggregates has always followed changes in monetary policy. Its development reflects the victories and mistakes of monetary authorities. Although they played the roles of operational and intermediate targets in the past, today they are used in the analysis of the banking sector and financial stability. Some economists believe that broad monetary aggregates such as Divisia help explain macroeconomic dynamics and should be included in the central bank’s interest rate decision rules. In addition, functional monetary aggregates are proposed as an alternative, behind which there are complex calculations. In the near future, the introduction of central bank digital currencies must lead to a redefinition of the monetary base and simple aggregates.
货币总量的概念一直伴随着货币政策的变化。它的发展反映了货币当局的成功和错误。虽然它们在过去扮演了业务和中间目标的角色,但今天它们被用于分析银行业和金融稳定性。一些经济学家认为,像迪西亚这样的广义货币总量有助于解释宏观经济动态,应该纳入央行的利率决策规则。此外,建议将功能性货币总量作为一种替代方案,其背后有复杂的计算。在不久的将来,央行数字货币的引入必须导致对货币基础和简单总量的重新定义。
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引用次数: 0
Job structure evolution in Russia: Polarization, upgrading, stalemate 俄罗斯职业结构演变:极化、升级、僵持
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-1-59-85
V. Gimpelson, R. Kapeliushnikov
In the study we explore the evolution of the job structure in the Russian economy during the first 20 years of this century. Does it change through a consequent substitution of relatively worst (in terms of quality) jobs by better jobs? Or through a destruction of middle quality jobs? Or do we observe stagnation and conservation of the job structure? Any structural change of this sort is usually triggered by technological progress that shapes demand for labor of different quality and complexity. In search for clues to these questions, the authors use large data sets which cover two sub-periods divided by the 2008—2009 crisis. The estimates presented in the paper allow reject the polarization hypothesis, and they document a fast upgrade of the job structure during the first sub-period and a much lower upgrade during the second one. Apparently, the risks of job polarization are likely to be minimal until the economic growth is recovered and the movement to the technological frontier is accelerated.
在本研究中,我们探讨了本世纪头20年俄罗斯经济中工作结构的演变。它是否会随着相对较差(就质量而言)的工作被较好的工作所取代而改变?还是通过破坏中等质量的工作?或者我们观察到工作结构的停滞和守恒?任何这类结构性变化通常都是由技术进步引发的,技术进步形成了对不同质量和复杂程度的劳动力的需求。为了寻找这些问题的线索,作者使用了涵盖以2008-2009年危机划分的两个子时期的大型数据集。本文提出的估计允许拒绝极化假设,并且它们记录了在第一个子阶段工作结构的快速升级和在第二个子阶段的低得多的升级。显然,在经济增长恢复并加速向技术前沿转移之前,工作两极分化的风险可能是最小的。
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引用次数: 3
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