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Macroeconomic effects of the expected future decline in oil revenues for the Russian economy under capital control 预计未来石油收入下降对宏观经济的影响为资本控制下的俄罗斯经济
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-4-5-28
M. Andreyev, A. Polbin
Since the beginning of Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the Russian economy has faced a large number of sanctions from unfriendly states. At the beginning of 2023, Russia’s export revenues remain high. However, there are high risks of revenues decline over the horizon of several years due to restrictions on the part of unfriendly countries. Based on a general equilibrium model for the Russian economy, we analyze the impact of an anticipated shock from a reduction in future energy export revenues. First, the paper shows that the anticipated shock of a fall in export revenues leads to a short-term and medium-term increase in domestic investment. Under a closed financial account, the effect of growth in investment remains even if other export doesn’t react to currency appreciation, while under an open financial account, investment decreases. This indicates the important role of the rainy day savings factor for investment dynamics, when the possibility of savings in external financial markets is limited. Second, in the short and medium term, the impact of revenues decline is highly dependent on whether the financial account is open or closed. Under a closed financial account, the drop in macroeconomic indicators turns out to be sharp and localized in the vicinity of the period of export revenues fall. Third, the central bank’s interest rate moves in exactly opposite directions under inflation targeting regime in response to the unanticipated and anticipated export revenues shock.
自乌克兰特别军事行动开始以来,俄罗斯经济面临着来自不友好国家的大量制裁。2023年初,俄罗斯的出口收入仍然很高。然而,由于不友好国家的限制,收入在未来几年内下降的风险很高。基于俄罗斯经济的一般均衡模型,我们分析了未来能源出口收入减少带来的预期冲击的影响。首先,论文表明,出口收入下降的预期冲击导致国内投资的短期和中期增长。在封闭的金融账户下,即使其他出口对货币升值没有反应,投资增长的影响仍然存在,而在开放的金融账户中,投资减少。这表明,在外部金融市场储蓄的可能性有限的情况下,未雨绸缪的储蓄因素对投资动态起着重要作用。其次,在中短期内,收入下降的影响在很大程度上取决于金融账户是开放还是关闭。在封闭的金融账户下,宏观经济指标的下降是急剧的,而且在出口收入下降的时期附近是局部的。第三,在通胀目标制下,央行的利率朝着完全相反的方向移动,以应对意料之外和预期中的出口收入冲击。
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引用次数: 1
Alexander Bogdanov’s system methodology from the perspective of the modern economic worldview 从现代经济世界观看波格丹诺夫的系统方法论
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-3-24-39
G. Kleiner
The doctrine of Alexander Bogdanov, the forerunner of the comprehensive system analysis developed later, is considered in the article from the point of view of the typology of the basic factors of the systemic development of the economy. The paradigm of space-time as an environment for the functioning of the economy in Bogdanov’s interpretation is analyzed in connection with the well-known concepts of space and time in physics, which allows us to take a fresh look at the relationship and roles of macro-, meso-, micro- and nanolevels in the economy. The representation of human economic activity as a combination of the processes of cognition and creation of spiritual and material values makes it possible to expand the concept of the connectedness of economic phenomena through causal (successive) and induction (mirror) dependencies. From this perspective, the reasons for the dominance of short-range and long-range effects, short- and long-term effects in different periods of the development of the Russian economy are considered.
本文从经济系统发展的基本要素类型学的角度考察了后来发展起来的综合系统分析的先驱波格丹诺夫学说。在波格丹诺夫的解释中,时空作为经济运行环境的范式与物理学中众所周知的空间和时间概念联系在一起进行了分析,这使我们能够重新审视经济中宏观、中观、微观和纳米层面的关系和作用。将人类经济活动表示为认知和创造精神和物质价值的过程的结合,使得通过因果(连续)和归纳(镜像)依赖关系来扩展经济现象的连通性概念成为可能。从这个角度出发,分析了俄罗斯经济发展不同时期短期效应和长期效应、短期效应和长期效应占主导地位的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Efficiency of large cities: Theory and empirics 大城市效率:理论与实证
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-3-83-101
L. Melnikova
The paper assesses the advantages of large cities as places of concentration of economic activity in terms of production efficiency. For this purpose; we made quantitative estimates of the relationship between the size of cities and indicators of productivity. The theory justifies the presence of such relationships by various agglomeration effects; estimates of which have been reduced over the last 20 years as the number of empirical studies has been growing. The calculations are based on Russian municipal statistics; taking into account its limitations. The study has demonstrated that the direction of the relationship between city size and productivity depends on the characteristics of the industry structure of the city economy; which; in turn; depends on the city’s place in the urban hierarchy. A negative relationship is characteristic of highly specialized cities; while a positive one emerges as industry localization declines and diversification of the city economy increases.
本文从生产效率的角度评估了大城市作为经济活动集中地的优势。为此目的;我们对城市规模和生产力指标之间的关系进行了定量估计。该理论通过各种集聚效应来证明这种关系的存在;在过去的20年里,随着实证研究数量的增加,对这一问题的估计有所减少。这些计算是基于俄罗斯市政统计数据;考虑到其局限性。研究表明,城市规模与生产力关系的走向取决于城市经济产业结构的特征;它;反过来,取决于城市在城市等级中的位置。这种负相关关系是高度专业化城市的特征;而积极的一面则是产业地方化程度的下降和城市经济多元化程度的提高。
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引用次数: 0
Is it worth limiting the ownership and investment of foreign companies? (Stock market case) 限制外国公司的所有权和投资值得吗?(股市案例)
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-3-40-62
A. Nepp
To identify possible equity market implications of restrictions on foreign ownership and investment in Russia; as well as against Russian ownership abroad; we reviewed data from 38 countries and applied fixed effects models to panel data. We show that restrictive measures against foreign ownership and investment will have a negative impact on the capitalization of the domestic stock market. The effect will be amplified under the influence of such factors as corruption; freedom of investment; financial; trade and business freedoms. The quality of the judiciary is most important when examining the share of the domestic stock market in the world stock market. Tax incentives and increased fiscal freedom will not be able to have a positive impact in the face of restrictive measures against foreign ownership and investment.
确定在俄罗斯限制外国所有权和投资可能对股票市场产生的影响;以及反对俄罗斯在海外的所有权;我们回顾了来自38个国家的数据,并对面板数据应用了固定效应模型。我们表明,限制外资所有权和投资的措施将对国内股票市场的资本化产生负面影响。在腐败等因素的影响下,其效果会被放大;投资自由;金融;贸易和商业自由。在考察国内股市在世界股市中所占的份额时,司法机构的素质是最重要的。面对针对外国所有权和投资的限制性措施,税收优惠和增加财政自由将无法产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
How has economic science emerged: Competition of blueprints 经济科学是如何产生的:蓝图的竞争
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-3-5-23
О. I. Ananyin
The formation of economics as a science is traditionally referenced to Adam Smith and presented — even if with reservations — as an ascent from delusions to true theory, underlying almost all modern schools of economic thought. Despite the importance of Smith’s Wealth of Nations, such a view does not reflect the real course of the evolvement of scientific economic knowledge and prevents adequate perception of the logic of its subsequent development. The article substantiates the need to rethink the initial phase of the history of economic science on the basis of a closer linkage of this history with the scientific revolution, which created conditions for the emergence of a whole range of blueprints of scientific economics, associated with such names as William Petty, John Law, James Steuart. It is shown that the blueprint of theoretical economics, which set the course for the development of economic science and was personified by Adam Smith, relied heavily on the work of Richard Cantillon, who generalized knowledge and experiences of mercantilist writers on the methodological basis that arose during the scientific revolution of the 17th — early 18th centuries.
经济学作为一门科学的形成,传统上是指亚当•斯密(Adam Smith),并将其呈现为——尽管有保留——从错觉到真正理论的上升,几乎是所有现代经济思想流派的基础。尽管斯密的《国富论》很重要,但这种观点并没有反映科学经济知识演变的真实过程,也阻碍了对其后续发展逻辑的充分认识。这篇文章指出,有必要重新思考经济科学史的初始阶段,将这段历史与科学革命更紧密地联系起来,科学革命为一系列科学经济学蓝图的出现创造了条件,这些蓝图与威廉·佩蒂(William Petty)、约翰·劳(John Law)、詹姆斯·斯图尔特(James stewart)等人的名字有关。理论经济学的蓝图为经济科学的发展指明了方向,并以亚当·斯密为代表,它在很大程度上依赖于理查德·坎蒂隆的工作。坎蒂隆在17世纪至18世纪初科学革命期间兴起的方法论基础上概括了重商主义作家的知识和经验。
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引用次数: 1
The monetization of economy: An indicator that indicates nothing 经济的货币化:一个没有任何意义的指标
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-3-126-157
E. Goryunov
The indicator of monetization of the economy; equal to the ratio of nominal money supply to nominal GDP; is very popular among Russian economists and is used to assess the effectiveness of the monetary policy pursued and is often employed in cross-country comparisons. Many economists believe that the monetization of the Russian economy is excessively low; which reflects the underdevelopment of the national financial system and requires steps towards monetary expansion. According to this view insufficient monetization of the Russian economy is as an obstacle to its rapid development; therefore increase in monetization should be made a key priority of the Bank of Russia’s policy. Although widely accepted; the complex of theories; ideas and assumptions behind these recommendations; however; has never been adequately empirically tested. In this paper we formulate several statements that are shared by the majority of economists in this area; based on a review of relevant publications; and then test the statements on cross-country data. As a result of empirical testing; it was shown that most of the statements are not supported by evidence. The monetization indicator does not carry any additional relevant information about the macroeconomics conditions; having other indicators considered. High monetization does not create additional stimulus for economic growth; and the ability of central banks to affect monetization is limited significantly. In countries with low monetization; inflationary risks of monetary expansion are sharply higher. The conducted empirical study provides arguments against the broad use of the monetization indicator in macroeconomic analysis and casts doubt on the idea of laying responsibility for increasing the level of Russian economy monetization on the Bank of Russia.
经济货币化的指标;等于名义货币供给与名义GDP之比;在俄罗斯经济学家中非常流行,用来评估所推行的货币政策的有效性,并经常用于跨国比较。许多经济学家认为,俄罗斯经济的货币化程度过低;这反映了国家金融体系的不发达,需要采取措施扩大货币规模。根据这一观点,俄罗斯经济的货币化程度不足是其快速发展的障碍;因此,增加货币化应成为俄罗斯央行政策的关键优先事项。虽然被广泛接受;理论的复杂性;这些建议背后的想法和假设;然而;从来没有经过充分的实证检验。在本文中,我们提出了这一领域的大多数经济学家所共有的几个陈述;基于对相关出版物的审查;然后用跨国数据测试这些语句。作为实证检验的结果;结果表明,大多数陈述都没有证据支持。货币化指标不包含任何关于宏观经济状况的额外相关信息;考虑到其他指标。高货币化不会为经济增长创造额外的刺激;中央银行影响货币化的能力也受到很大限制。在盈利水平低的国家;货币扩张带来的通胀风险急剧上升。所进行的实证研究提供了反对在宏观经济分析中广泛使用货币化指标的论据,并对将提高俄罗斯经济货币化水平的责任归咎于俄罗斯央行的想法提出了质疑。
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引用次数: 1
New firm formation and regional employment in Russia: Direct and indirect effects 俄罗斯新企业形成与区域就业:直接和间接影响
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-3-102-125
D. Salimova, Y. Tsareva, Stepan Zemtsov
Studies of employment growth factors are more relevant during crises. Review of foreign studies and analysis of Russian data in 2005—2018 using a distributed lag model based on the Almon method shows that there are multidirectional short-term direct and longer-term indirect effects of starting a business on employment growth. The regional context is important; and the prevalence of one effect over another and the direction of influence of additional factors depend on the type of region. Thus; for large agglomerations with high labor productivity and an active SME sector; an S-shaped lag structure of the dependence of employment on the creation of new firms was revealed: with short-term positive; medium-term negative; and further positive effects. For regions with low urbanization; labor productivity and a less active SME sector; the most striking is the short-term positive impact on employment from the opening of firms; which is replaced by a negative one after 2—3 years. At the same time; in the latter regions; the total impact may be higher than in the former; and on average; a new firm (per 1;000 people in the workforce) leads to an increase in employment by 0.56 p.p. This provides grounds for some policy recommendations. 
对就业增长因素的研究在危机期间更为相关。利用基于Almon方法的分布式滞后模型回顾国外研究并分析俄罗斯2005-2018年的数据表明,创业对就业增长存在多向的短期直接影响和长期间接影响。区域背景很重要;一种效应对另一种效应的影响程度以及其他因素的影响方向取决于区域的类型。因此;劳动生产率高、中小企业活跃的大型集聚区;就业对新企业创建的依赖呈s型滞后结构:短期为正;中期阴性;以及进一步的积极影响。对于城市化程度较低的地区;劳动生产率和中小企业不太活跃;最引人注目的是企业开放对就业的短期积极影响;它在2-3年后被一个负的取代。同时;在后一地区;总影响可能高于前一种情况;平均而言;一家新公司(每1,000名劳动力中)导致就业增加0.56个百分点。这为一些政策建议提供了依据。
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引用次数: 1
Mortgage lending and housing prices in Russia: Unfounded accusations? 俄罗斯的抵押贷款和房价:无端指责?
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-3-63-82
A. Mishura
The article analyzes the relationship between the price of housing and the volume of issued housing loans in Russia in 2009—2021. Has the development of the mort- gage lending market in recent years driven up housing prices; as has often been claimed? Using data from Rosstat and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on average housing prices and lending volumes in Russia as a whole; as well as in Russian regions; the significance of mutual influence of their quarterly and annual changes is estimated using vector autoregression and panel vector autoregression models; taking into account exogenous variables. It has been found that mortgage lending dynamics was not a significant and stable factor in the growth of housing prices. The latter largely depended on the households’ solvent demand; macroeco- nomic conditions; the state of regional economy; and dynamics of the housing stock.
本文分析了2009-2011年俄罗斯住房价格与住房贷款发放量之间的关系。近年来抵押贷款市场的发展是否推高了房价;正如人们经常声称的那样?使用俄罗斯国家统计局和俄罗斯联邦中央银行关于整个俄罗斯平均房价和贷款量的数据;以及俄罗斯地区;使用向量自回归和面板向量自回归模型估计了它们的季度和年度变化的相互影响的显著性;考虑到外部变量。研究发现,抵押贷款动态并不是房价增长的一个重要而稳定的因素。后者在很大程度上取决于家庭的偿债需求;宏观经济条件;区域经济状况;以及住房存量的动态。
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引用次数: 0
Growth theories: The realities of the last decades (Issues of sociocultural codes — to the expansion of the research program) 成长理论:过去几十年的现实(社会文化密码问题——研究项目的扩展)
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-2-18-42
L. Grigoryev, M.-Y. Y. Maykhrovitch
This article is aimed at examining institutional approaches to the theories of economic growth, and touches upon especially the influence of sociocultural codes on the development of the world economy. The presented study compares the rates of economic growth, taking into account various classifications of count- ries according to Angus Maddison, Ronald Inglehart, and the cluster approach. One of the main results is a proposal to move from the dichotomy and study of “advanced—emerging states” over long time periods, used in Maddison’s research, to the study of subgroups of countries, including cluster analysis, over a more compact period — 1992—2019. With the help of clustering, it was concluded that the group of the most developed countries retains an advantage in the level of development but does not demonstrate growth rates higher than the “catching up” groups. Thus, the convergence of levels of development does not actually occur. The article also illustrates that a disaggregated analysis of growth by clusters creates interesting opportunities for a further development of the research program.
本文旨在考察经济增长理论的制度方法,特别是社会文化规范对世界经济发展的影响。本研究比较了经济增长率,根据Angus Maddison、Ronald Inglehart和聚类方法,考虑了各种计数分类。主要结果之一是,建议从麦迪森研究中使用的长期“先进-新兴国家”的二分法和研究,转向在1992年至2019年这一更紧凑的时期内研究国家亚组,包括聚类分析。在集群的帮助下,得出的结论是,最发达国家集团在发展水平上保持优势,但增长率并不高于“追赶”集团。因此,发展水平的趋同实际上并没有发生。文章还说明,按集群对增长的分类分析为研究计划的进一步发展创造了有趣的机会。
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引用次数: 2
Meso-institutions for digital ecosystems 数字生态系统的Meso机构
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-2-61-82
A. Shastitko, A. Kurdin, I. N. Filippova
The importance of digital ecosystems in the economy is growing rapidly as more and more companies and consumers are involved in their circuit. At the same time, the regulation relevance is growing too, as evidenced by many antitrust cases involving companies such as Yandex, Google, Microsoft, which constitute the core of the respective ecosystems. The very concept of digital ecosystems does not have a generally accepted definition. However, national and supranational regulators must resolve disputes between the leader of the ecosystem and the complementary companies, as well as protect the interests of an indefinite number of persons (with the application of antitust law). Such disputes resolution leads to the fact that the regulator has to make decisions about the rules of interaction within the complex structure of relationships between all participants in ecosystems, de facto defining a framework for establishing institutional agreements. This paper proposes to apply the concept of “meso-institution” for some ecosystems rules, separating them from both hybrid institutional agreements (micro-level rules) and the institutional environment (macro-level rules). It is assumed that meso-institutions are a key element for digital ecosystems successful development. Using the example of companies and antitrust cases, the formation and evolution of meso-institutions, the capability of their design, and the regulator’s role are shown. The application of the meso-institutions concept makes it possible to justify the shift of focus of antitrust regulation in the field of digital ecosystems towards their self-regulation rather than strengthening legislative regulation.
随着越来越多的公司和消费者参与他们的电路,数字生态系统在经济中的重要性正在迅速增长。与此同时,监管的相关性也在增长,许多涉及Yandex、谷歌、微软等公司的反垄断案件证明了这一点,这些公司构成了各自生态系统的核心。数字生态系统的概念本身并没有一个普遍接受的定义。然而,国家和超国家监管机构必须解决生态系统领导者和互补公司之间的纠纷,并保护无限数量的人的利益(适用反恐法)。这种争端的解决导致了这样一个事实,即监管机构必须在生态系统所有参与者之间复杂的关系结构中就互动规则做出决定,事实上为建立机构协议确定了一个框架。本文提出将“中间制度”概念应用于一些生态系统规则,将其与混合制度协议(微观层面规则)和制度环境(宏观层面规则)分离开来。人们认为,中介机构是数字生态系统成功发展的关键因素。以公司和反垄断案件为例,展示了中介机构的形成和演变、其设计能力以及监管机构的作用。中间机构概念的应用使数字生态系统领域反垄断监管的重点转向自我监管而不是加强立法监管成为可能。
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引用次数: 1
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Voprosy Ekonomiki
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