Pub Date : 2024-01-07DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-33-51
Y. A. HSE University, S. E. Pekarski
The global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has once again shown the key role of fiscal stimulus. At the same time, in many developed countries, stimulating monetary policy was limited by the already achieved zero interest rates. But the fight against the consequences of the coronavirus with fiscal policy instruments had a negative effect in the form of an increase in the state budget deficit and, as a result, in public debt. According to the Institute of International Finance (IMF), by the end of 2022, global debt reached $297 trillion, or 349%. The public debt in the world reached 102% of GDP in 2022, which is a historically high value since the 1960s. In 2023, global debt continued to grow in nominal terms: according to the IMF, in Q1 2023, it has already increased by $8.3 trillion to $305 trillion. The risks of rapid growth in public debt in developed and developing countries were even before the COVID-19 pandemic. But after a period of stimulus fiscal measures in 2020—2021 the public debt problem has worsened, raising fears that the practice of financial repression could become a reality for the next decade. Accelerating global inflation increases incentives for governments to use financial repression to eliminate the public debt burden. At the same time, financial repression, in turn, may imply a decrease in the effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy, as a result of which there are risks that high inflation will become more sustainable.
{"title":"Soaring public debt: Return of financial repression and high inflation?","authors":"Y. A. HSE University, S. E. Pekarski","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-33-51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-33-51","url":null,"abstract":"The global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has once again shown the key role of fiscal stimulus. At the same time, in many developed countries, stimulating monetary policy was limited by the already achieved zero interest rates. But the fight against the consequences of the coronavirus with fiscal policy instruments had a negative effect in the form of an increase in the state budget deficit and, as a result, in public debt. According to the Institute of International Finance (IMF), by the end of 2022, global debt reached $297 trillion, or 349%. The public debt in the world reached 102% of GDP in 2022, which is a historically high value since the 1960s. In 2023, global debt continued to grow in nominal terms: according to the IMF, in Q1 2023, it has already increased by $8.3 trillion to $305 trillion. The risks of rapid growth in public debt in developed and developing countries were even before the COVID-19 pandemic. But after a period of stimulus fiscal measures in 2020—2021 the public debt problem has worsened, raising fears that the practice of financial repression could become a reality for the next decade. Accelerating global inflation increases incentives for governments to use financial repression to eliminate the public debt burden. At the same time, financial repression, in turn, may imply a decrease in the effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy, as a result of which there are risks that high inflation will become more sustainable.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139448444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-07DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-5-32
E. T. Gurvich, N. Krasnopeeva
We build factor models of the regional budgets spending composition, based on data for 2011—2019. Our estimates reveal that expenditure on social security, public health, and education have relatively low elasticity by fiscal revenue (0.6—0.7), On the contrary, national economy and housing expenditure have the highest elasticity (1.3—1.7), while culture and general public services expenditure are characterized with medium elasticity (0.8—0.9). The major econometric tool used for the analysis is quantile regression that allows to detect heterogeneity of expenditure relations with various factors. The dependence of fiscal revenues is homogenous only for social security, public health, and housing, while for other types of expenditure this relationship differs between regions with high and low fiscal revenue. We suggest procedure to identify individual ‘spending preferences’ of particular regions and classify all regions depending on their top spending priorities. Regions with a larger value of the gross regional product most often have education and social security as their priority while other regions mainly have national economy spending as a priority.
{"title":"Determinants of public spending composition in the Russian regions","authors":"E. T. Gurvich, N. Krasnopeeva","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-5-32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-5-32","url":null,"abstract":"We build factor models of the regional budgets spending composition, based on data for 2011—2019. Our estimates reveal that expenditure on social security, public health, and education have relatively low elasticity by fiscal revenue (0.6—0.7), On the contrary, national economy and housing expenditure have the highest elasticity (1.3—1.7), while culture and general public services expenditure are characterized with medium elasticity (0.8—0.9). The major econometric tool used for the analysis is quantile regression that allows to detect heterogeneity of expenditure relations with various factors. The dependence of fiscal revenues is homogenous only for social security, public health, and housing, while for other types of expenditure this relationship differs between regions with high and low fiscal revenue. We suggest procedure to identify individual ‘spending preferences’ of particular regions and classify all regions depending on their top spending priorities. Regions with a larger value of the gross regional product most often have education and social security as their priority while other regions mainly have national economy spending as a priority.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139448413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-07DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-75-93
M. Kolosnitsyna
Since the mid-nineties of this century, Russia has intensified its state policy of combating excessive alcohol consumption. In particular, a minimum price threshold for vodka was introduced, excise taxes on alcohol in alcoholic beverages were substantially increased, and a mandatory ban on nighttime retail sales was introduced. A number of studies using Russian microdata have confirmed the effectiveness of these measures. From 2007 to 2017, the dynamics of alcohol consumption by the Russian population did show a consistent decline. Many researchers, both Russian and foreign, considered this trend as a success of government policy. Recently, however, official statistics have noted an annual increase in the consumption of alcoholic beverages: from 7.2 liters of pure alcohol per capita adult population in 2017 to 7.7 in 2021. Why has the alcohol policy, designed initially in line with international best practices, not reduced consumption in recent years? This article analyzes the practice of applying price and restrictive measures for the last 10 years on the basis of Rosstat data, federal and regional legislation. Excise duties and minimum vodka prices in real terms are calculated, as well as indices of the ratio of alcoholic beverage prices and average wages. The real excise taxes and prices for alcoholic beverages decreased after 2014, making them more affordable for consumers. After 2017, there is no increase in the number of Russian territories applying stricter temporary restrictions on alcohol trade compared to the norm of the federal law. Today, almost half of the country’s population lives in regions with the mildest possible time limits on alcohol sales that do not constrain its physical availability. We have to admit that the alcohol policy is inconsistent. The formal application of price and restrictive measures in the last decade has not prevented the growth of alcohol consumption.
{"title":"Alcohol policy in Russia in the last decade: A movement backwards","authors":"M. Kolosnitsyna","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-75-93","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-75-93","url":null,"abstract":"Since the mid-nineties of this century, Russia has intensified its state policy of combating excessive alcohol consumption. In particular, a minimum price threshold for vodka was introduced, excise taxes on alcohol in alcoholic beverages were substantially increased, and a mandatory ban on nighttime retail sales was introduced. A number of studies using Russian microdata have confirmed the effectiveness of these measures. From 2007 to 2017, the dynamics of alcohol consumption by the Russian population did show a consistent decline. Many researchers, both Russian and foreign, considered this trend as a success of government policy. Recently, however, official statistics have noted an annual increase in the consumption of alcoholic beverages: from 7.2 liters of pure alcohol per capita adult population in 2017 to 7.7 in 2021. Why has the alcohol policy, designed initially in line with international best practices, not reduced consumption in recent years? This article analyzes the practice of applying price and restrictive measures for the last 10 years on the basis of Rosstat data, federal and regional legislation. Excise duties and minimum vodka prices in real terms are calculated, as well as indices of the ratio of alcoholic beverage prices and average wages. The real excise taxes and prices for alcoholic beverages decreased after 2014, making them more affordable for consumers. After 2017, there is no increase in the number of Russian territories applying stricter temporary restrictions on alcohol trade compared to the norm of the federal law. Today, almost half of the country’s population lives in regions with the mildest possible time limits on alcohol sales that do not constrain its physical availability. We have to admit that the alcohol policy is inconsistent. The formal application of price and restrictive measures in the last decade has not prevented the growth of alcohol consumption.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139449034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-07DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-52-74
A. L. Lukyanova
The 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Claudia Goldin for her contribution to the study of women’s labor market outcomes. Goldin’s work establishes key historical facts regarding gender differences in the labor markets and provides insights into the driving forces of those gaps. Her methodology combines careful archival research, neoclassical microeconomic analysis, a cohort approach, and the use of natural experiments to identify causal relationships. This paper provides a survey of Goldin’s research on the relationship between economic development and the female labor supply, occupational segmentation, women’s educational attainment, discrimination, child penalty, and job flexibility. I also discuss how Goldin’s findings are relevant to understanding the gender gaps in Russia.
{"title":"Time for women (Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences 2023)","authors":"A. L. Lukyanova","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-52-74","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-52-74","url":null,"abstract":"The 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Claudia Goldin for her contribution to the study of women’s labor market outcomes. Goldin’s work establishes key historical facts regarding gender differences in the labor markets and provides insights into the driving forces of those gaps. Her methodology combines careful archival research, neoclassical microeconomic analysis, a cohort approach, and the use of natural experiments to identify causal relationships. This paper provides a survey of Goldin’s research on the relationship between economic development and the female labor supply, occupational segmentation, women’s educational attainment, discrimination, child penalty, and job flexibility. I also discuss how Goldin’s findings are relevant to understanding the gender gaps in Russia.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139449197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-07DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-137-153
A. Shastitko
The article continues to discuss options for the modernization of higher economic education in Russia, including those provisions that are presented in two articles: by A. Auzan, A. Maltsev and A. Kurdin (Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2023, No. 10) and by A. Buzgalin and A. Kolganov (Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2023, No. 11). Questions are formulated to clarify the position and further discussion. It is proposed to consider the modernization of economic education through the prism of structural alternatives for building an interdisciplinary discourse, as well as the demand for expert knowledge based on applied scientific research from business and the state. Special attention is paid to the significance of heterodox economic theories, as well as to the description of the image of the desired future economic education. The following principles of its construction are formulated: sufficient conceptual pluralism; setting up filters to maintain research quality standards and navigate within a disciplinary area; forming research coalitions; restructuring of curricula in the context of “building bridges” between research programs.
{"title":"Economic education as a mirror of interdisciplinary discourse","authors":"A. Shastitko","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-137-153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-137-153","url":null,"abstract":"The article continues to discuss options for the modernization of higher economic education in Russia, including those provisions that are presented in two articles: by A. Auzan, A. Maltsev and A. Kurdin (Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2023, No. 10) and by A. Buzgalin and A. Kolganov (Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2023, No. 11). Questions are formulated to clarify the position and further discussion. It is proposed to consider the modernization of economic education through the prism of structural alternatives for building an interdisciplinary discourse, as well as the demand for expert knowledge based on applied scientific research from business and the state. Special attention is paid to the significance of heterodox economic theories, as well as to the description of the image of the desired future economic education. The following principles of its construction are formulated: sufficient conceptual pluralism; setting up filters to maintain research quality standards and navigate within a disciplinary area; forming research coalitions; restructuring of curricula in the context of “building bridges” between research programs.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139448765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-07DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-94-114
N. Pavlova, A. Shastitko
The article examines the possible reasons for the dominance of fundamentalism( in the form of Pigouvianism or market fundamentalism) over functionalism (Coasianism) in the practice of decision-making in economic policy. Continuing the study of the relationship between Coasianism, Pigouvianism and market fundamentalism, presented in previous works, the article focuses on finding the basis for the dominance of fundamentalism at the level of individual decisions and actions — in particular, in the field of cognitive bias and behavioral effects. Decision-making using an automatic cognitive system, subject to cognitive bias, as opposed to a reflective system, can lead to the choice of a fundamentalist solution to a problem where it is not the most efficient, and also reduces the efficiency of functionalism, since it prevents the correct identification of the problem itself, of the structural alternatives for its solution, as well as identifying and comparing the effects associatedwith each of the alternatives. The microfoundations of insufficient supply and demand of the Coasian approach are explored. Based on the identified problems of supply and demand for Coasianism, as one of the possible ways to promote it, it is proposed to consider the primary socialization of the individual in the learning process, the formation of substantive critical thinking. It is emphasized that adjustments to the socialization process are a matter of long-term strategy
{"title":"Microfoundations of dominance of fundamentalism in economic policy: Is there an antidote?","authors":"N. Pavlova, A. Shastitko","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-94-114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-94-114","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines the possible reasons for the dominance of fundamentalism( in the form of Pigouvianism or market fundamentalism) over functionalism (Coasianism) in the practice of decision-making in economic policy. Continuing the study of the relationship between Coasianism, Pigouvianism and market fundamentalism, presented in previous works, the article focuses on finding the basis for the dominance of fundamentalism at the level of individual decisions and actions — in particular, in the field of cognitive bias and behavioral effects. Decision-making using an automatic cognitive system, subject to cognitive bias, as opposed to a reflective system, can lead to the choice of a fundamentalist solution to a problem where it is not the most efficient, and also reduces the efficiency of functionalism, since it prevents the correct identification of the problem itself, of the structural alternatives for its solution, as well as identifying and comparing the effects associatedwith each of the alternatives. The microfoundations of insufficient supply and demand of the Coasian approach are explored. Based on the identified problems of supply and demand for Coasianism, as one of the possible ways to promote it, it is proposed to consider the primary socialization of the individual in the learning process, the formation of substantive critical thinking. It is emphasized that adjustments to the socialization process are a matter of long-term strategy","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139448885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-06DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-141-153
A. Editorial
In modern conditions, the issues of choosing a reasonable balance between antitrust and economic regulation, instruments of antimonopoly and industrial policy — vertical and horizontal — have become actualized. This is due to the fact that several factors have intertwined: digitalization that transforms the usual business models and ideas about acceptable conditions for the functioning of markets; the search for solutions to the problems of sustainable development (low-carbon economy); a dramatic change in geopolitical conditions of doing business in Russia. In 2023, the Chair of Competition and Industrial Policy of the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University turned 10 years old. On June 14, 2023 an anniversary conference was held to discuss a wide range of issues that the school of institutional studies of competition, industrial and competition policy, which has been formed in Russia, touches upon in its research. Within the framework of the conference, a round table was held on applied issues of antimonopoly and industrial policies in new conditions. Researchers, practicing consultants, and business representatives were invited to the discussion.
{"title":"Practice of antitrust and industrial policy (Proceedings of the round table discussion at the anniversary conference of the Chair of Competition and Industrial Policy of the Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)","authors":"A. Editorial","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-141-153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-141-153","url":null,"abstract":"In modern conditions, the issues of choosing a reasonable balance between antitrust and economic regulation, instruments of antimonopoly and industrial policy — vertical and horizontal — have become actualized. This is due to the fact that several factors have intertwined: digitalization that transforms the usual business models and ideas about acceptable conditions for the functioning of markets; the search for solutions to the problems of sustainable development (low-carbon economy); a dramatic change in geopolitical conditions of doing business in Russia. In 2023, the Chair of Competition and Industrial Policy of the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University turned 10 years old. On June 14, 2023 an anniversary conference was held to discuss a wide range of issues that the school of institutional studies of competition, industrial and competition policy, which has been formed in Russia, touches upon in its research. Within the framework of the conference, a round table was held on applied issues of antimonopoly and industrial policies in new conditions. Researchers, practicing consultants, and business representatives were invited to the discussion.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138594862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-06DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-31-47
M. V. Ershov
In 2023, there is an improvement in the trends of economic dynamics in the global economy, but there is a high probability that it will be only temporal. The processes of fragmentation of the world economy are intensifying, previous indicators of the state of the economy are becoming less informative. Regulators face a difficult choice regarding the mechanisms of economic policy. Russia is in no less difficult conditions, given the negative effect of the sanctions that are being implemented against it. Increasing the strength of the domestic economy and forming stable conditions in the financial market are the most important prerequisites for the successful solution of emerging problems.
{"title":"The world and Russia in the environment of transformation: Is the economic recovery sustainable?","authors":"M. V. Ershov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-31-47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-31-47","url":null,"abstract":"In 2023, there is an improvement in the trends of economic dynamics in the global economy, but there is a high probability that it will be only temporal. The processes of fragmentation of the world economy are intensifying, previous indicators of the state of the economy are becoming less informative. Regulators face a difficult choice regarding the mechanisms of economic policy. Russia is in no less difficult conditions, given the negative effect of the sanctions that are being implemented against it. Increasing the strength of the domestic economy and forming stable conditions in the financial market are the most important prerequisites for the successful solution of emerging problems.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138596124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-05DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-103-119
A. Zubarev, A. M. Gorodnov
Modern specifications of the Phillips curve are actively used in the study of inflation dynamics, but many of them do not consider the influence of external variables. In this paper, we use a non-linear GMM to estimate the Phillips curve equation for a small open economy which includes the expected change in the exchange rate on Russian data. Estimates show that the assignment of the new head of the Bank of Russia in 2013 and the subsequent transition to the inflation targeting regime significantly reduced the impact of expectations of a change in the ruble exchange rate on inflation which confirms the efficiency of the modification of the monetary policy regime. Another interesting result is that the outbreak of the pandemic has again led to an increase in the impact of the expected change in the exchange rate on inflation which may be a result of increased uncertainty in import prices. The empirical results also show that the pandemic caused a decrease in price rigidity in the Russian economy while the transition to an inflation targeting regime did not affect price rigidity.
{"title":"The Phillips curve for an open economy: The evolution of inflation processes in Russia","authors":"A. Zubarev, A. M. Gorodnov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-103-119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-103-119","url":null,"abstract":"Modern specifications of the Phillips curve are actively used in the study of inflation dynamics, but many of them do not consider the influence of external variables. In this paper, we use a non-linear GMM to estimate the Phillips curve equation for a small open economy which includes the expected change in the exchange rate on Russian data. Estimates show that the assignment of the new head of the Bank of Russia in 2013 and the subsequent transition to the inflation targeting regime significantly reduced the impact of expectations of a change in the ruble exchange rate on inflation which confirms the efficiency of the modification of the monetary policy regime. Another interesting result is that the outbreak of the pandemic has again led to an increase in the impact of the expected change in the exchange rate on inflation which may be a result of increased uncertainty in import prices. The empirical results also show that the pandemic caused a decrease in price rigidity in the Russian economy while the transition to an inflation targeting regime did not affect price rigidity.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138598859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-05DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-86-102
E. P. Dzhagityan, O. Mukhametov
Systemic risks in the framework of central banks’ unconventional monetary policy (UMP) have so far received little attention in the modern economic literature. Based on evidence from the UMP of the European Central Bank (ECB), we contribute to this research area by differentiating systemic risks between materialized systemic risks (financial stress) and their potential level (expected capital shortfall in the banking system during crises). Besides, our paper assesses the asymmetric effects of expansionary and contractionary UMP. The empirical analysis covers the period from 2009 to 2022 and applies structural vector autoregressions with zero and sign constraints on the model parameters. We have found that materialized systemic risks decline in response to expansionary UMP and increase after the ECB’s contractionary measures. Potential systemic risks demonstrate a backlash, and their increase after the expansionary shock outweighs the decrease in response to the contractionary measures in modulus. The research results show the need to combine a long-lasting stimulating UMP together with the tightening measures in ensuring financial stability.
{"title":"The effect of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy on systemic risks in the eurozone","authors":"E. P. Dzhagityan, O. Mukhametov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-86-102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-86-102","url":null,"abstract":"Systemic risks in the framework of central banks’ unconventional monetary policy (UMP) have so far received little attention in the modern economic literature. Based on evidence from the UMP of the European Central Bank (ECB), we contribute to this research area by differentiating systemic risks between materialized systemic risks (financial stress) and their potential level (expected capital shortfall in the banking system during crises). Besides, our paper assesses the asymmetric effects of expansionary and contractionary UMP. The empirical analysis covers the period from 2009 to 2022 and applies structural vector autoregressions with zero and sign constraints on the model parameters. We have found that materialized systemic risks decline in response to expansionary UMP and increase after the ECB’s contractionary measures. Potential systemic risks demonstrate a backlash, and their increase after the expansionary shock outweighs the decrease in response to the contractionary measures in modulus. The research results show the need to combine a long-lasting stimulating UMP together with the tightening measures in ensuring financial stability.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138601428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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