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The role of the population's access to basic needs in building resilience and ensuring food security: Case study of Romania 人口获得基本需求在建设复原力和确保粮食安全方面的作用:罗马尼亚案例研究
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-06-23 DOI: 10.5937/ekopolj2002345r
R. Ion
Water scarcity, climate change, price volatility, agricultural output variability, and geo-political instability have determined new stressors and situations of risks that exert pressure on agro-ecological systems, farmers, people’s food security, and generally affect the well-being of the population. In recent times, resilience is seen as providing a new approach on how to analyse the effects of shocks and stressors that threaten people’s well-being. The question is whether there is a relationship between the inadequate access to basic services, as stressor of people’s physical access to food and food availability on the market, and food security, as an outcome of people’s well-being. Statistical data have been analysed with simple regression model. The case study of Romania is discussed, using twenty two observations. The main findings show that access to essential services, such as water and sanitation, are important in explaining household’s resilience capacity. Other stressors, such as rail lines density and road density, which determine the physical access to markets, have a less significant influence on food security. The relevance of the results lies in their capacity to emphasize the role of people’s access to basic needs in strengthening the resilience of individuals, families and regions, and to ensure, as a consequence, food security.
水资源短缺、气候变化、价格波动、农业产出变化和地缘政治不稳定确定了新的压力源和风险状况,对农业生态系统、农民、人民的粮食安全造成压力,并普遍影响到人口的福祉。近年来,弹性被视为提供了一种新的方法来分析威胁人们福祉的冲击和压力因素的影响。问题是,作为人们实际获取粮食和市场上粮食供应的压力源,获得基本服务的机会不足与作为人民福祉结果的粮食安全之间是否存在关系。统计数据用简单回归模型进行分析。本文讨论了罗马尼亚的案例研究,使用了22个观测值。主要调查结果表明,获得基本服务,如水和卫生设施,是解释家庭恢复能力的重要因素。其他压力因素,如铁路密度和公路密度,决定了进入市场的实际途径,对粮食安全的影响较小。这些结果的相关性在于,它们能够强调人们获得基本需求在加强个人、家庭和区域抵御能力方面的作用,从而确保粮食安全。
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引用次数: 2
Analysis of development of local self-government units in Vojvodina 伏伊伏丁那地方自治机构的发展分析
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-06-23 DOI: 10.5937/ekopolj2002431t
Dragana Tekić, B. Mutavdžić, T. Novaković, Maja Pokuševski
Discriminant analysis and logistic regressions were applied in this research for the purpose of analyzing the development of autonomous province (AP) Vojvodina local self-government units, which are classified as developed and underdeveloped. The aim of the study is to identify population economic and social characteristics as the one with the most influence on the existence of differences between the observed categories of local self-government units. Based on the results of the discriminatory analysis, number of employed inhabitants per 1,000 inhabitants and number of highly educated inhabitants per 1000 inhabitants were found to have the greatest influence on the development of the local self-government unit, while based on logistic regression results, number of employed inhabitants per 1000 inhabitants and natural increase are the most influential factors. Both models have good data classification power, the discriminant analysis model successfully classifies 90.9% of all cases, and the logistic regression model successfully classifies 88.6% of cases.
本研究采用判别分析和logistic回归方法,对伏伊伏丁那自治省(AP)地方自治单位的发展情况进行了分析。本研究的目的是确定人口经济和社会特征是对所观察到的地方自治单位类别之间存在差异影响最大的特征。根据歧视性分析的结果,每1000名居民中有就业的居民人数和每1000名人口中受过高等教育的居民人数对地方自治单位的发展影响最大,而基于逻辑回归结果,每1000名居民中的就业人数和自然增长是最具影响的因素。两个模型都具有良好的数据分类能力,判别分析模型成功地分类了90.9%的病例,逻辑回归模型成功地对88.6%的病例进行了分类。
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引用次数: 3
Gross domestic product growth rate analyzing based on price indexes, import and export factors 基于物价指数、进出口因素的国内生产总值增长率分析
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-06-23 DOI: 10.5937/ekopolj2002405p
Biljana Petković, B. Kuzman, M. Barjaktarević
Economic development could be presented by gross domestic product to show how different factors affect the development. Gross domestic product could be affected by different nonlinear factors in positive or negative way. Hence it is suitable to apply artificial intelligence techniques in order to track the gross domestic product variation in depend on the factors. AI techniques require only input and output data pairs in order to catch the output variations based on the input factors. Therefore in this study adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system was applied in order to select the most relevant factors for gross domestic product growth rate. These factors are whole sale price index, consumer price index in urban areas, consumer price index in rural areas, state per capita income, exports, import and industry income. Results shown that the whole sale price index has the highest relevance on the gross domestic product growth rate.
经济发展可以用国内生产总值来表示,以显示不同因素如何影响发展。国内生产总值可能受到不同非线性因素的正向或负向影响。因此,应用人工智能技术来跟踪国内生产总值的变化是合适的,这取决于因素。人工智能技术只需要输入和输出数据对,就可以捕捉基于输入因素的输出变化。因此,本研究采用自适应神经模糊推理系统来选择与国内生产总值增长率最相关的因素。这些因素包括整体销售价格指数、城市居民消费价格指数、农村居民消费价格指标、国家人均收入、出口、进口和工业收入。结果表明,整体销售价格指数与国内生产总值增长率的相关性最高。
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引用次数: 4
Price transmission analysis in pork supply chain in Serbia 塞尔维亚猪肉供应链价格传导分析
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-06-23 DOI: 10.5937/ekopolj2002417j
M. Jeremić, S. Zekić, Bojan Matkovski, Danilo Đokić, Žana Jurjević
As the pork supply chain was perceived through three level of chain: agricultural sector, processing and distribution sector, the main objective of this paper was the estimation of the vertical price transmission in the pork supply chain in the Republic of Serbia for period 2008-2015. The analysis of the price transmission was related on the presence of the asymmetry and was estimated with AECM model. The results indicated the presence of the negative asymmetry in the price transmission and one of the main causes of the presence of asymmetry was the abuse of the market power by processing sector, i.e. slaughtering industry.
由于猪肉供应链是通过三个层次的链来感知的:农业部门、加工和分销部门,本文的主要目标是估计2008-2015年期间塞尔维亚共和国猪肉供应链中的垂直价格传导。价格传导的分析与不对称性的存在有关,并用AECM模型进行了估计。研究结果表明,价格传导中存在负不对称,造成不对称的主要原因之一是加工行业,即屠宰行业滥用市场力量。
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引用次数: 0
The Evaluation of the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Performance of Listed Real Estate Companies and Reits 宏观经济指标对房地产上市公司及Reits绩效影响的评价
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2020.1.5
Viktorija Cohen, Arūnas Burinskas
Abstract Using quarterly data from 2006 to 2019 (55 observations), this paper examines 18 Eurozone macroeconomic variables that represent monetary policy, external and construction sectors’ performance, economic growth, investment, households’ earnings, inflation and assesses their impact on the performance of the European listed real estate companies and REITs. Empirical results demonstrate that the European listed real estate market is strongly influenced by the supply side: the construction sector and the inflation of producers’ prices; while the demand side is strongly affected by the expansionary monetary policy of ECB. Furthermore, some primary findings propose that US expansionary monetary policy shocks have an effect on the European listed real estate market. This conclusion demands further thorough research.
本文利用2006年至2019年的季度数据(55个观察值),考察了欧元区18个宏观经济变量,这些变量代表了货币政策、外部和建筑部门的绩效、经济增长、投资、家庭收入、通货膨胀,并评估了它们对欧洲上市房地产公司和REITs绩效的影响。实证结果表明,欧洲上市房地产市场受到供给方:建筑业和生产者价格通胀的强烈影响;而需求方面则受到欧洲央行扩张性货币政策的强烈影响。此外,一些初步研究结果表明,美国扩张性货币政策冲击对欧洲上市房地产市场有影响。这一结论需要进一步深入研究。
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引用次数: 4
Exploring the Tourism-Poverty Alleviation Nexus in the Brics Group of Nations 探索金砖国家集团的旅游与扶贫关系
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2020.1.6
R. Garidzirai, T. Matiza
Abstract The tourism-poverty alleviation nexus is becoming an increasingly significant subject of academic inquiry within the tourism economics discourse. Using time series data from the World Bank (1995–2017) in a P-ARDL model, the present study explores the relationship between tourism (receipts from exports, the travel subsector, hospitality and accommodation subsector) and poverty alleviation (final household consumption) with tourism arrivals as the control variable within the context of the BRICS group. The results suggest that receipts from the travel subsector and exports met the a priori expectation – positively influencing poverty alleviation within BRICS nations in the long run. Contrastingly, receipts from the hospitality and accommodation subsector did not meet the a priori expectation of a positive sign, with the results indicating statistical insignificance in the long run. However, receipts from the hospitality and accommodation were found to only influence poverty alleviation in the short run. Relatedly, the results suggest that increases in consumption associated with growth in tourism arrivals did not influence poverty in the BRICS. The results point to the heterogeneity of the influence of tourism on poverty alleviation, whereby certain dimensions of tourism contribute to poverty alleviation in the long run and others do so in the short run. Based on these findings it is recommended that BRICS countries harness their tourism potential and promote intra-BRICS tourism to maximise the positive impact of travel and tourism export receipts on household consumption, which catalyses poverty alleviation.
旅游与扶贫的关系正成为旅游经济学话语中日益重要的学术研究课题。本研究在P-ARDL模型中使用世界银行(1995-2017)的时间序列数据,探讨了旅游业(出口收入、旅游子行业、酒店和住宿子行业)与扶贫(最终家庭消费)之间的关系,并将旅游人数作为金砖国家背景下的控制变量。结果表明,旅游分部门和出口的收入符合先验预期,从长远来看对金砖国家的减贫产生了积极影响。相比之下,接待和住宿分部门的收入没有达到对积极迹象的先验预期,结果表明从长期来看统计意义不大。但是,招待费和住宿费的收入只能在短期内对减轻贫穷产生影响。与此相关的是,研究结果表明,与游客人数增长相关的消费增长并未影响金砖国家的贫困。研究结果表明,旅游对扶贫的影响存在异质性,即旅游的某些方面有助于长期扶贫,而其他方面则有助于短期扶贫。基于这些发现,建议金砖国家利用其旅游潜力,促进金砖国家内部旅游,最大限度地发挥旅游和旅游出口收入对家庭消费的积极影响,从而促进减贫。
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引用次数: 3
Short-Term Forecast of Ukrainian Economy Including Shadow Sector Using Causal Simulation Model 基于因果模拟模型的包括影子部门在内的乌克兰经济短期预测
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2020.1.8
Yuriy Vasylenko
Abstract A new causal simulation model of economic development was created, which comprehensively in detail and fully reflects various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations. The model is used to forecast the whole (legal and shadow) country’s economy up to 2022. The dynamics of shadow and legal indicators are different. The biggest and most important difference is about exports and imports. Official statistics give a negative balance of the Ukrainian foreign trade of Ukraine in 2019-22. However, total export, determined by the model, considerably exceeds imports, so actually we expect a surplus. This is very important for the National Bank: its policy based on the official (legal) negative balance of Ukraine foreign trade should be one (throw foreign currency reserves into the market or to devalue the hryvnia), but with the actual balance that includes shadow flows and is positive, - contrary one (to buy currency on the market or to revalue the national currency). Our model calculates how the production volumes of all types of goods and services should change to ensure that supply and demand are balanced. These numbers can serve a reference for manufacturers. We suggested that the relevant Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of Ukraine: measuring actual rates of changes in the production of these types of goods during the year, they provide recommendations to producers to increase or decrease their production.
摘要建立了一个新的经济发展因果模拟模型,该模型全面、详细、充分地反映了各类合法经济活动和影子经济活动及其相互关系。该模型用于预测到2022年的整个(合法和影子)国家的经济。影子和法律指标的动态是不同的。最大和最重要的区别在于出口和进口。官方统计显示,2019-22年乌克兰对外贸易为负。但是,根据模型确定的出口总额大大超过进口,因此实际上我们预计会出现顺差。这对国家银行来说非常重要:其政策基于乌克兰对外贸易的官方(合法)负平衡应该是一个(将外汇储备投入市场或使格里夫纳贬值),但实际平衡包括影子流动和正平衡,相反(在市场上购买货币或重新评估本国货币)。我们的模型计算了所有类型的商品和服务的产量应该如何变化,以确保供需平衡。这些数字可以为制造商提供参考。我们建议乌克兰有关当局在执行对乌克兰经济发展作出的预测方面采取积极的立场:衡量这类货物在这一年中生产的实际变化率,向生产者提出增加或减少生产的建议。
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引用次数: 1
Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: The Turkish Case 外汇市场压力与货币政策:土耳其案例
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2020.1.7
I. Siklar, A. Akça
Abstract The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange market pressure index in Turkey for the 2002–2018 period with monthly data. To obtain the foreign exchange market pressure index, this study uses the model developed by L. Girton and D.E. Roper and is based fundamentally on the monetary approach to exchange rate determination and the balance of payments. The calculated exchange market pressure index is in accordance with the developments lived in financial markets and changes in monetary policy during the period under investigation. As for the relation between exchange market pressure index and monetary policy, a VAR model was set up and a Granger type causality analysis was carried out. According to Granger causality test results, there is a unidirectional causality running from domestic credit expansion to exchange market pressure and from domestic credit expansion to interest rate differential while there is a bidirectional causality between exchange market pressure and interest rate differential. Since increasing exchange market pressure means a depreciation of the Turkish Lira, the estimated VAR model’s results support the view that the Central Bank will increase the interest rate to temper the exchange market pressure.
摘要本研究的目的是利用月度数据确定2002-2018年期间土耳其货币政策与外汇市场压力指数之间的关系。为了获得外汇市场压力指数,本研究使用了L. Girton和D.E. Roper开发的模型,该模型基本上基于货币方法来决定汇率和国际收支。所计算的外汇市场压力指数是根据调查期间金融市场的发展和货币政策的变化计算的。针对外汇市场压力指数与货币政策之间的关系,建立VAR模型,并进行格兰杰因果分析。格兰杰因果检验结果表明,国内信贷扩张与外汇市场压力、国内信贷扩张与利率差之间存在单向因果关系,而外汇市场压力与利率差之间存在双向因果关系。由于外汇市场压力的增加意味着土耳其里拉的贬值,估计VAR模型的结果支持央行将提高利率以缓和外汇市场压力的观点。
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引用次数: 2
The Relationships between Economic growth, Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions: Results for the Euro Area 经济增长、能源效率和二氧化碳排放之间的关系:欧元区的结果
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-05-07 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2020.1.1
V. Klyvienė, Angele Kedaitiene
Abstract The article aims at ascertaining the relationship between indicators affecting the green economic growth of the Eurozone countries. Despite extensive research, scientists have not yet found a clear answer as to whether economic growth and climate change mitigation can be aligned. Another important aspect of the study was to investigate the possible effect of environmental policies on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, investment, employment, and trade. The authors of the article applied the PVAR econometric model to measure the impact of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and some of the macroeconomic indicators on GDP growth in 19 countries of the Eurozone for years 2000–2016. Based on the results, we cannot yet state explicitly that economic growth in the Eurozone countries has been decoupled from climate change mitigation; however, green transition is on the right track.
本文旨在确定影响欧元区国家绿色经济增长的指标之间的关系。尽管进行了广泛的研究,但科学家们还没有找到一个明确的答案,即经济增长和减缓气候变化是否可以协调一致。这项研究的另一个重要方面是调查环境政策对国内生产总值、投资、就业和贸易等宏观经济变量的可能影响。本文运用PVAR计量经济模型,测算了2000-2016年欧元区19个国家能源消耗、二氧化碳排放和部分宏观经济指标对GDP增长的影响。根据这些结果,我们还不能明确地说,欧元区国家的经济增长已经与减缓气候变化脱钩;然而,绿色转型是在正确的轨道上。
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引用次数: 7
Model of a Second-Hand Goods Resale Exchange under Transactional Pricing Strategy 交易定价策略下的二手商品转售交易模型
IF 0.6 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-05-07 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2020.1.4
I. Iarmolenko, G. Chornous
Abstract A modern effective business model involves the use of an appropriate pricing strategy. However, what matters is not only short-term profitability but also the long-term loyalty of clients. The main purpose of this paper is to present a specific transactional pricing strategy for a second-hand goods resale exchange platform that allows to avoid the possible negative outcomes of being associated with consumer discrimination. Using a simulation modeling approach, it was shown how customer segmentation combined with transactional pricing can help gain higher profitability. The model is based on the work of intelligent agents that recreate the full product lifecycle. Changing the input parameters of the model, it is possible to simulate different scenarios of a company’s activity and market conditions. The model supports the inclusion of any number of products, while its intelligent agents’ methods are still flexible to be replaced with other techniques. The simulation model has shown that the use of transactional pricing can increase the profitability of a business while keeping its clients loyal.
现代有效的商业模式涉及到使用合适的定价策略。然而,重要的不仅是短期盈利能力,还有客户的长期忠诚度。本文的主要目的是为二手商品转售交换平台提出一种特定的交易定价策略,该策略可以避免与消费者歧视相关的可能的负面结果。使用模拟建模方法,展示了客户细分与交易定价相结合如何帮助获得更高的盈利能力。该模型基于重新创建完整产品生命周期的智能代理的工作。通过改变模型的输入参数,可以模拟公司活动和市场条件的不同场景。该模型支持包含任意数量的产品,而其智能代理的方法仍然是灵活的,可以被其他技术取代。仿真模型表明,使用交易定价可以在保持客户忠诚度的同时增加企业的盈利能力。
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引用次数: 1
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Ekonomika Poljoprivreda-Economics of Agriculture
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