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Who has benefited from nursing home expansion in Japan?: The effects of government supply-side intervention 谁从日本养老院的扩张中受益?:政府供给侧干预的效果
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100604
Yoshinori Nishimura , Masato Oikawa
This study analyzes the relationship between the labor force participation of caregivers and the provision of informal in-home older adults care. In Japan, the national government regulates the market entry of nursing home suppliers, and accordingly intervenes in the supply side of the older adults care market. Using exogenous variations in this supply side intervention, our analysis finds that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing homes has increased the labor force participation of female workers with low opportunity costs in the labor market, but simultaneously reduced their provision of informal care. As the per capita expense of nursing home care is higher than the wage income of most non-regular female workers who tend to provide the bulk of informal in-home care, it is possible that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing home capacity has already reached its point of maximum effectiveness.
本研究分析照顾者劳动力参与与提供非正式居家照顾的关系。在日本,国家政府对养老院供应商的市场准入进行监管,从而对老年人护理市场的供给侧进行干预。在这种供给侧干预中使用外生变量,我们的分析发现,日本扩大养老院的政策增加了劳动力市场中低机会成本女性工人的劳动力参与,但同时减少了她们提供的非正式护理。由于养老院护理的人均费用高于大多数非正规女工的工资收入,而非正规女工往往提供大量的家庭护理,因此日本扩大养老院容量的政策可能已经达到了最大效果。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding social norms for women toward the elderly: Evidence from Japan 理解女性对待老年人的社会规范:来自日本的证据
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100603
Hiroyuki Motegi
This study examines social norms held by Japanese women regarding the elderly. Specifically, I conduct a regression analysis of attitudes toward social norms such as “Older parents should live with their children,” “Family members should care their elderly parents,” and “Financial support for the elderly should be provided by families rather than public institutions” in order to understand individual characteristics associated with holding these norms. I find the following: For example, more educated individuals have more progressive attitudes toward coresidence and informal care, but different attitudes toward financial support. Non-regular employees have the most progressive norms regarding the elderly among all employment statuses. Norms about the elderly are highly related to norms about gender and the division of gender roles. In addition, although family circumstances—such as parental education level and the status of one’s siblings—may influence an individual’s attitudes toward norms regarding the elderly, these attitudes are more likely to be shaped by the individual’s later life experiences, particularly their educational attainment and employment status.
本研究考察了日本女性对老年人的社会规范。具体来说,我对社会规范的态度进行了回归分析,例如“年长的父母应该和他们的孩子住在一起”,“家庭成员应该照顾他们年迈的父母”,“老年人的经济支持应该由家庭而不是公共机构提供”,以了解与持有这些规范相关的个人特征。我发现:例如,受教育程度越高的人对同居和非正式照顾的态度越进步,但对经济支持的态度不同。在所有雇佣状态中,非正式雇员对老年人的规范是最先进的。关于老年人的规范与性别规范和性别角色划分高度相关。此外,虽然家庭环境——比如父母的教育水平和兄弟姐妹的地位——可能会影响一个人对老年人规范的态度,但这些态度更有可能是由个人后来的生活经历塑造的,尤其是他们的教育程度和就业状况。
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引用次数: 0
Aging workforce and industrial Robots: Industry-Level evidence from Japan 老龄化劳动力和工业机器人:来自日本的工业层面证据
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100602
Fang Chen, Wenge Liu
As demographic aging intensifies globally, the aging of the labor force is exerting significant impacts on technological adoption, industrial restructuring, and pathways toward sustainable development. This study empirically investigates the effect of labor force aging on the adoption of industrial robots by employing industry-level panel data from Japan spanning 1996 to 2018. A fixed-effects regression model is used to control for unobserved industry and year heterogeneity, while human capital variables—including educational attainment and average wage—are incorporated to assess potential moderating effects.
The results indicate that labor force aging significantly facilitates the deployment of industrial robots, particularly in manufacturing and capital-intensive industries, whereas the effect is statistically insignificant in service-oriented and labor-intensive sectors. Furthermore, higher average wages strengthen the positive relationship between labor force aging and robot adoption, while educational attainment shows no significant moderating effect. Robustness tests using alternative aging measures (e.g., working hours by age group) and lagged explanatory variables confirm the stability of the findings.
This study contributes to the literature by revealing the demographic underpinnings of automation trends, emphasizing the role of labor composition in shaping technological transitions. The findings offer policy implications for aging societies aiming to enhance resilience and productivity through automation. Future research should expand the scope by exploring cross-national comparisons and investigating the potential of intelligent automation in non-standard labor markets and service-oriented domains.
随着全球人口老龄化的加剧,劳动力老龄化正在对技术采用、产业结构调整和可持续发展路径产生重大影响。本研究采用日本1996年至2018年的行业层面面板数据,实证研究了劳动力老龄化对工业机器人采用的影响。固定效应回归模型用于控制未观察到的行业和年份异质性,而人力资本变量-包括受教育程度和平均工资-被纳入评估潜在的调节效应。研究结果表明,劳动力老龄化显著促进了工业机器人的部署,尤其是在制造业和资本密集型行业,而在服务型和劳动密集型行业,这种影响在统计上不显著。此外,较高的平均工资水平强化了劳动力老龄化与机器人采用之间的正相关关系,而受教育程度没有显著的调节作用。使用替代老龄化措施(例如,按年龄组工作时间)和滞后解释变量进行的稳健性测试证实了研究结果的稳定性。本研究通过揭示自动化趋势的人口基础,强调劳动力构成在塑造技术转型中的作用,为文献做出了贡献。研究结果为旨在通过自动化提高复原力和生产力的老龄化社会提供了政策启示。未来的研究应该通过探索跨国比较和调查智能自动化在非标准劳动力市场和面向服务领域的潜力来扩大范围。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of macroeconomic conditions on long-term care: Evidence on prices 宏观经济条件对长期护理的影响:价格证据
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100600
Johannes Geyer , Peter Haan , Mia Teschner
The price of institutional long-term care is a key determinant of the demand for both formal and informal long-term care. In this paper, we examine how the regional unemployment rate as a proxy for macroeconomic conditions influences these prices. Our analysis draws on administrative data that provide detailed information on all nursing homes and ambulatory care services, as well as all recipients of long-term care benefits in Germany. For identification, we exploit variation in macroeconomic conditions—measured by district-level unemployment rates over time—using a panel data approach with facility and time fixed effects.
Our empirical findings indicate that higher unemployment rates lead to increased prices for permanent long-term care, including accommodation and meal costs in nursing homes. We provide evidence for the mechanisms underlying these price effects. While we find no significant impact of macroeconomic conditions on employment, working hours, or quality of care in nursing homes, our results suggest that higher unemployment rates raise nursing home prices through changes in the composition of patients. Specifically, economic downturns trigger a shift from recipients with lower levels of impairment to those requiring more labor-intensive care. Additionally, we observe a substitution effect, whereby low-impairment patients increasingly opt for ambulatory and informal home care instead of institutional care.
机构长期护理的价格是正式和非正式长期护理需求的关键决定因素。在本文中,我们研究了地区失业率作为宏观经济条件的代理如何影响这些价格。我们的分析借鉴了行政数据,这些数据提供了德国所有养老院和门诊护理服务以及所有长期护理福利接受者的详细信息。为了识别,我们利用宏观经济条件的变化——通过地区失业率随时间的变化来衡量——使用具有设施和时间固定效应的面板数据方法。我们的实证研究结果表明,较高的失业率导致永久性长期护理的价格上涨,包括养老院的住宿和膳食成本。我们为这些价格效应背后的机制提供了证据。虽然我们发现宏观经济条件对养老院的就业、工作时间或护理质量没有显著影响,但我们的研究结果表明,高失业率通过改变患者的构成来提高养老院的价格。具体来说,经济衰退引发了从受损程度较低的受助人向需要更多劳动密集型护理的受助人的转变。此外,我们观察到替代效应,即低损伤患者越来越多地选择门诊和非正式的家庭护理,而不是机构护理。
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引用次数: 0
Trade-offs in long-term care for older people in an ageing society: A constrained portfolio choice experiment 老龄化社会中老年人长期护理的权衡:一个受限的投资组合选择实验
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100599
Sander Boxebeld , Niek Mouter , Job van Exel
Many countries face rapidly ageing populations, resulting in a rising demand for long-term care (LTC) for older people and an increased pressure on LTC systems. In responding to this development, governments face challenging trade-offs between different policy measures and their effects. To inform allocation decisions, this study elicited citizens’ policy preferences for LTC for older people in the Netherlands in 2040. We conducted a constrained portfolio choice experiment, in which 997 respondents composed a portfolio of their preferred policies, subject to a budget constraint, while being presented with the expected effects of their choices. Choices were analysed using a Multiple Discrete Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) choice model and a Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCCA). The results suggest a preference for distributing resources towards multiple policies, including both nursing and social care, over investing heavily in one or two particularly. Also, most respondents chose portfolios constituting a substantial public expenditure increase, suggesting a widespread willingness to accept a tax increase to allow for this. Preferences were particularly heterogeneous with respect to expenditure levels and the adoption of supportive care technologies and compulsory social service for young adults. Policymakers may use these results to support the selection of a portfolio of LTC policies that aligns with public preferences.
许多国家面临人口迅速老龄化的问题,导致老年人对长期护理的需求不断增加,长期护理系统面临的压力也越来越大。在应对这一发展时,各国政府面临着在不同政策措施及其效果之间进行权衡的挑战。为了为分配决策提供信息,本研究得出了2040年荷兰公民对老年人LTC的政策偏好。我们进行了一个有约束的投资组合选择实验,其中997名受访者在预算约束下组成了他们偏好的投资组合,同时向他们展示了他们选择的预期效果。使用多重离散连续极值(MDCEV)选择模型和潜在类聚类分析(LCCA)分析选择。结果表明,人们更倾向于将资源分配给多种政策,包括护理和社会护理,而不是在一项或两项政策上进行大量投资。此外,大多数受访者选择了构成大量公共支出增加的投资组合,这表明人们普遍愿意接受增加税收以实现这一目标。在支出水平和采用支持性护理技术以及为年轻人提供强制性社会服务方面,偏好特别不一致。政策制定者可以利用这些结果来支持选择符合公众偏好的LTC政策组合。
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引用次数: 0
How do women respond to increased care needs of their parents? The economic costs of informal caregiving 女性如何应对父母日益增加的照顾需求?非正式照料的经济成本
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100589
Jacek Barszczewski , Ricarda Milstein , Jinkook Lee , Ana Llena-Nozal
When a person becomes care-dependent, family members often provide informal care. This paper examines the economic impact of informal caregiving, with a particular focus on women who care for their ageing parents. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), covering 24 countries, we estimate the effect of caregiving on labour supply and quantify its associated costs in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Our findings confirm that women typically respond to worsening parental health by increasing their provision of informal care. Women with parents in poor health have a 5% to 13% higher probability of providing informal care, depending on the region of Europe. Furthermore, our results show that women who take on caregiving responsibilities experience significant reductions in labour supply, especially in Southern, Western, and Central/Eastern European countries, with reductions ranging from 30% to 70%. We also show that the economic cost of these reductions in labour supply is considerable, with a GDP reduction ranging from 0.37% in Western Europe to approximately 0.45% in Southern and Central/Eastern Europe. These results highlight the significant economic consequences of informal caregiving and stress the need for policy measures that support reconciling caregiving with labour market participation. Expanding formal long-term care systems, providing caregiver support, and investing in healthy ageing policies could help address these economic pressures.
当一个人变得依赖照顾时,家庭成员通常会提供非正式的照顾。本文研究了非正式照顾的经济影响,特别关注照顾年迈父母的妇女。利用欧洲健康、老龄化和退休调查(SHARE)涵盖24个国家的数据,我们估计了护理对劳动力供应的影响,并按国内生产总值(GDP)量化了其相关成本。我们的研究结果证实,妇女通常通过增加提供非正式护理来应对父母健康状况的恶化。父母健康状况不佳的妇女提供非正式护理的可能性要高5%至13%,具体情况视欧洲区域而定。此外,我们的研究结果表明,承担照顾责任的妇女的劳动力供应显著减少,特别是在南欧、西欧和中欧/东欧国家,减少幅度从30%到70%不等。我们还表明,这些劳动力供应减少的经济成本是相当大的,其GDP减少幅度从西欧的0.37%到南欧和中欧/东欧的约0.45%。这些结果突出了非正式照料的重大经济后果,并强调需要采取政策措施,支持协调照料与劳动力市场参与。扩大正式的长期护理系统,为护理人员提供支持,并投资于健康老龄化政策,可以帮助解决这些经济压力。
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引用次数: 0
Driving human capital accumulation. The role of grandparents 推动人力资本积累。祖父母的角色
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100598
Mauro Maria Baldi, Raffaella Coppier, Elisabetta Michetti
The role of grandparents in the education process of grandchildren is becoming increasingly important, especially in economies experiencing positive human capital growth rates over time. To investigate the main forces driving such a phenomenon and the effect on human capital accumulation and growth, in the present work we propose an overlapping generations model where the time spent by grandparents on grandchildren’s education is endogenously determined to maximize the expected utility associated with the trade-off between leisure time and grandchildren’s education. By combining analytical tools and numerical simulations, our model shows that the more time grandparents spend educating their grandchildren - quantity - and the more educated they are - quality -, the more education is transmitted from older to younger generations, who will have higher levels of human capital, which will generate higher economic growth. Such a mechanism repeats over time, generating virtuous paths that work as drivers of human capital and physical capital growth.
祖父母在孙辈教育过程中的作用正变得越来越重要,尤其是在人力资本长期正增长的经济体中。为了研究这一现象的主要驱动力及其对人力资本积累和增长的影响,本研究提出了一个代际重叠模型,其中祖父母在孙辈教育上花费的时间是内生决定的,以最大化与休闲时间和孙辈教育之间权衡相关的预期效用。通过结合分析工具和数值模拟,我们的模型表明,祖父母教育孙辈的时间越多(数量),孙辈受教育的程度越高(质量),老一辈向年轻一代传递的教育就越多,年轻一代将拥有更高水平的人力资本,从而产生更高的经济增长。这种机制会随着时间的推移而重复,产生良性路径,作为人力资本和物质资本增长的驱动力。
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引用次数: 0
Lifecycle analysis of the gender gap in paid and unpaid work by household structure 按家庭结构对有偿和无偿工作的性别差距进行生命周期分析
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100597
Gemma Abio , Ció Patxot , Elisenda Rentería , Guadalupe Souto , Tanja Istenič
The paper provides new insights into men and women’s lifetime contributions to the overall economy and societal well-being, taking both market and non-market activities into account. It extends the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) and National Time Transfer Accounts (NTTA) methodologies by including household structure – specifically, partnership and parenthood status – in the analysis. Using Spain as a case study, the results reveal the need to consider family characteristics to fully understand gendered patterns of economic production. Three synthetic indicators are defined that permit new insights concerning the well-documented gender gap. Interestingly, this gap is already present in singles (single women spend more time doing housework), reinforced in childless couples (by the division of labour) and most apparent when children are present. Visible in the indicator of family generosity, the latter dimension also shows the existence of a sizeable ‘parenthood gap’. Addressing both gaps is particularly urgent in the context of accelerated population ageing given the potential implications it holds for fertility, care provision, and intergenerational support.
这篇论文对男性和女性对整体经济和社会福祉的终身贡献提供了新的见解,同时考虑了市场和非市场活动。它扩展了国家转移帐户和国家时间转移帐户方法,将家庭结构- -特别是伙伴关系和父母身份- -纳入分析。以西班牙为例,研究结果表明,需要考虑家庭特征,以充分了解经济生产的性别模式。定义了三个综合指标,使人们能够对有据可查的性别差距有新的认识。有趣的是,这种差距在单身女性(单身女性花更多的时间做家务)中已经存在,在没有孩子的夫妇(由于劳动分工)中得到强化,在有孩子的情况下最为明显。在家庭慷慨度指标中可以看到,后一个维度也显示了一个相当大的“父母差距”的存在。在人口加速老龄化的背景下,解决这两个差距尤为紧迫,因为它对生育、护理提供和代际支持具有潜在影响。
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引用次数: 0
Who supports carbon pricing? Older adults’ financial literacy and attitudes toward carbon taxation 谁支持碳定价?老年人的金融知识和对碳税的态度
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100595
Joelle H. Fong, Yuhao Ba, Zhe Chen
We investigate how financial literacy impacts older adults’ views on carbon taxation and climate fiscal policies. Using a representative survey in Singapore, we find that financially savvy older adults are generally less supportive of climate fiscal policies in that they are less likely to perceive carbon tax as fair or believe that increasing carbon tax will help increase employment. We provide empirical evidence that these relationships are causal. Interestingly also, the negative causal effect of financial knowledge on older adults’ attitudes towards carbon taxes is predominantly driven by their inflation literacy. Those more knowledgeable about inflation have higher awareness that carbon pricing can lead to higher costs of production and costs of living. Other personal factors that shape older adult’s attitudes on carbon taxation include age, marital status, and income. As future cohorts of elderly become more financially literate, communication campaigns on climate change and carbon taxation directed towards older demographic groups are urgently warranted.
我们调查了金融知识如何影响老年人对碳税和气候财政政策的看法。通过在新加坡进行的一项代表性调查,我们发现具有财务头脑的老年人通常不太支持气候财政政策,因为他们不太可能认为碳税是公平的,或者认为增加碳税将有助于增加就业。我们提供的经验证据表明,这些关系是因果关系。有趣的是,金融知识对老年人对碳税态度的负面因果效应主要是由他们的通货膨胀知识驱动的。那些更了解通货膨胀的人更能意识到碳定价会导致更高的生产成本和生活成本。影响老年人对碳税态度的其他个人因素包括年龄、婚姻状况和收入。随着未来的老年人越来越懂得理财,针对老年人口群体的气候变化和碳税宣传活动迫在眉睫。
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引用次数: 0
Trend in length-of-stay in nursing homes: Evidence from the Netherlands 在疗养院停留时间的趋势:来自荷兰的证据
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100596
Peter Alders , Bram Wouterse , Frederik T. Schut
For an accurate prediction of the future demand of nursing home care, adequate insight in the trend in length-of-stay (LOS) in nursing homes is required. Almost no research has been done on the trend in LOS and its determinants. We used individual data on nursing home use for the entire Dutch population combined with information on age, gender, cohabitation, care needs, and date of death. Our final sample consisted of 433,377 individual nursing home admissions over the period 2012 through 2022 in the Netherlands. Although the average age at admission was relatively stable, the age distribution got more dispersed over time, because of a simultaneous increase in the share of relatively young older adults in the older population due to the post-war babyboom and the postponement of nursing home admissions to higher ages at the individual level. Furthermore, relatively more men and older adults with higher care needs were admitted to a nursing home. We performed a survival analysis to calculate the expected LOS. We decomposed the trend in LOS into three partial effects: a demographic effect, an effect due to changes in care needs, and a residual time trend. We found that over a period of 11 years, the LOS decreased with 8 %, from 930 days in 2012 to 853 days in 2022. This downward trend is explained by a combination of population ageing (27 %), an influx of older adults with higher care needs (40 %), and other factors captured by the time trend (32 %).
为了准确预测养老院护理的未来需求,需要充分了解养老院住院时间(LOS)的趋势。几乎没有研究LOS的趋势及其决定因素。我们使用了整个荷兰人口使用养老院的个人数据,并结合了年龄、性别、同居、护理需求和死亡日期等信息。我们的最终样本包括荷兰2012年至2022年期间入院的433,377名个人养老院。虽然入院的平均年龄相对稳定,但随着时间的推移,年龄分布变得更加分散,因为战后婴儿潮导致相对年轻的老年人在老年人口中所占的比例同时增加,而且在个人层面上,养老院入院的年龄推迟到更高的年龄。此外,相对而言,更多的男性和老年人有更高的护理需求被送入养老院。我们进行了生存分析来计算预期的LOS。我们将LOS的趋势分解为三个部分效应:人口统计学效应、护理需求变化的效应和剩余时间趋势。我们发现,在11年的时间里,LOS减少了8%,从2012年的930天减少到2022年的853天。造成这种下降趋势的原因是人口老龄化(27%)、有更高护理需求的老年人的涌入(40%)以及时间趋势所反映的其他因素(32%)。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of the Economics of Ageing
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