Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100604
Yoshinori Nishimura , Masato Oikawa
This study analyzes the relationship between the labor force participation of caregivers and the provision of informal in-home older adults care. In Japan, the national government regulates the market entry of nursing home suppliers, and accordingly intervenes in the supply side of the older adults care market. Using exogenous variations in this supply side intervention, our analysis finds that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing homes has increased the labor force participation of female workers with low opportunity costs in the labor market, but simultaneously reduced their provision of informal care. As the per capita expense of nursing home care is higher than the wage income of most non-regular female workers who tend to provide the bulk of informal in-home care, it is possible that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing home capacity has already reached its point of maximum effectiveness.
{"title":"Who has benefited from nursing home expansion in Japan?: The effects of government supply-side intervention","authors":"Yoshinori Nishimura , Masato Oikawa","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100604","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100604","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the relationship between the labor force participation of caregivers and the provision of informal in-home older adults care. In Japan, the national government regulates the market entry of nursing home suppliers, and accordingly intervenes in the supply side of the older adults care market. Using exogenous variations in this supply side intervention, our analysis finds that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing homes has increased the labor force participation of female workers with low opportunity costs in the labor market, but simultaneously reduced their provision of informal care. As the per capita expense of nursing home care is higher than the wage income of most non-regular female workers who tend to provide the bulk of informal in-home care, it is possible that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing home capacity has already reached its point of maximum effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100604"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-11-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100605
Takeo Hoshi , Naomi Kodama , Huiyu Li
Using firm-level data in Japan, this paper documents hump-shaped relationships between (1) the propensity to be entrepreneurs and individuals’ age, and (2) firm sales and sales per worker with entrepreneurs’ age. We examine these patterns using a general equilibrium model in which aging of the population affects total factor productivity (TFP) through selection into entrepreneurship. We use the model to project changes in output per capita as the population ages according to the official projections of the Japanese government. Over the next three decades, aging can lower TFP and hence output per capita through the selection of entrepreneurs, but the effect is quantitatively small.
{"title":"The effect of aging on entrepreneurship and aggregate productivity","authors":"Takeo Hoshi , Naomi Kodama , Huiyu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using firm-level data in Japan, this paper documents hump-shaped relationships between (1) the propensity to be entrepreneurs and individuals’ age, and (2) firm sales and sales per worker with entrepreneurs’ age. We examine these patterns using a general equilibrium model in which aging of the population affects total factor productivity (TFP) through selection into entrepreneurship. We use the model to project changes in output per capita as the population ages according to the official projections of the Japanese government. Over the next three decades, aging can lower TFP and hence output per capita through the selection of entrepreneurs, but the effect is quantitatively small.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100605"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100607
Zhiyong Huang , Fabrice Kämpfen
We evaluate the impact of a free health check-up program targeting older adults in China on the diagnosis and management of chronic diseases, focusing on hypertension and diabetes. Drawing on nine years of panel data from five waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we use a fixed-effects instrumental variable (IV) strategy that leverages age-based eligibility (65+) for free check-ups to address endogeneity in health service uptake. Our findings show that eligibility for a check-up increases the probability of diabetes diagnosis by 8.3 percentage points (p = 0.042), with even stronger effects for women in rural areas (13.3 percentage points, p = 0.063). In contrast, we find no significant impact on hypertension diagnosis. Although the check-up policy improves diabetes detection, our causal estimates show no statistically significant effects on treatment, disease control, or provider recommendations. For hypertension, the policy raises lifestyle advice, but we estimate no precise impacts on clinical outcomes. These results suggest that while preventive screening can enhance disease detection among older adults, substantial gaps remain in the delivery of effective follow-up care and disease management. This has important implications for designing cost-effective chronic disease interventions in aging populations.
{"title":"Free health check-ups and chronic disease care among older adults in China","authors":"Zhiyong Huang , Fabrice Kämpfen","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100607","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100607","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate the impact of a free health check-up program targeting older adults in China on the diagnosis and management of chronic diseases, focusing on hypertension and diabetes. Drawing on nine years of panel data from five waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we use a fixed-effects instrumental variable (IV) strategy that leverages age-based eligibility (65+) for free check-ups to address endogeneity in health service uptake. Our findings show that eligibility for a check-up increases the probability of diabetes diagnosis by 8.3 percentage points (p = 0.042), with even stronger effects for women in rural areas (13.3 percentage points, p = 0.063). In contrast, we find no significant impact on hypertension diagnosis. Although the check-up policy improves diabetes detection, our causal estimates show no statistically significant effects on treatment, disease control, or provider recommendations. For hypertension, the policy raises lifestyle advice, but we estimate no precise impacts on clinical outcomes. These results suggest that while preventive screening can enhance disease detection among older adults, substantial gaps remain in the delivery of effective follow-up care and disease management. This has important implications for designing cost-effective chronic disease interventions in aging populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100607"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145579222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-08-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100594
Halim Yoon
Social Security began to gradually raised the Full Retirement Age (FRA) from 65 to 67 in 2000. While previous research has shown that this reform increased employment and labor supply among older adults, its impact on unemployment among older workers is limited. As employment rises among older individuals, there is an increased risk of facing periods of unemployment at older ages. In addition, people may experience longer unemployment spells if they choose to stay unemployed strategically in order to collect Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits and delay claiming Social Security. This study uses data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) to examine the effect of raising the FRA on unemployment among older men born between 1932 and 1940. The findings indicate a slight increase in unemployment among cohorts with higher FRAs. However, this increase does not translate into longer unemployment spells. Instead, unemployed individuals aged 62 to 65 in the treated cohorts are more likely to move from unemployment to employment, rather than remaining unemployed or retiring. Moreover, there is no strong evidence of strategic use of UI. The results suggest that individuals subject to greater penalties for early Social Security claiming experience higher unemployment as they stay longer in the labor market, rather than through any strategic effort to collect UI benefits.
{"title":"The effect of the increase in social security’s full retirement age on unemployment among older adults","authors":"Halim Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100594","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100594","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Social Security began to gradually raised the Full Retirement Age (FRA) from 65 to 67 in 2000. While previous research has shown that this reform increased employment and labor supply among older adults, its impact on unemployment among older workers is limited. As employment rises among older individuals, there is an increased risk of facing periods of unemployment at older ages. In addition, people may experience longer unemployment spells if they choose to stay unemployed strategically in order to collect Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits and delay claiming Social Security. This study uses data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) to examine the effect of raising the FRA on unemployment among older men born between 1932 and 1940. The findings indicate a slight increase in unemployment among cohorts with higher FRAs. However, this increase does not translate into longer unemployment spells. Instead, unemployed individuals aged 62 to 65 in the treated cohorts are more likely to move from unemployment to employment, rather than remaining unemployed or retiring. Moreover, there is no strong evidence of strategic use of UI. The results suggest that individuals subject to greater penalties for early Social Security claiming experience higher unemployment as they stay longer in the labor market, rather than through any strategic effort to collect UI benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100594"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144988580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100599
Sander Boxebeld , Niek Mouter , Job van Exel
Many countries face rapidly ageing populations, resulting in a rising demand for long-term care (LTC) for older people and an increased pressure on LTC systems. In responding to this development, governments face challenging trade-offs between different policy measures and their effects. To inform allocation decisions, this study elicited citizens’ policy preferences for LTC for older people in the Netherlands in 2040. We conducted a constrained portfolio choice experiment, in which 997 respondents composed a portfolio of their preferred policies, subject to a budget constraint, while being presented with the expected effects of their choices. Choices were analysed using a Multiple Discrete Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) choice model and a Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCCA). The results suggest a preference for distributing resources towards multiple policies, including both nursing and social care, over investing heavily in one or two particularly. Also, most respondents chose portfolios constituting a substantial public expenditure increase, suggesting a widespread willingness to accept a tax increase to allow for this. Preferences were particularly heterogeneous with respect to expenditure levels and the adoption of supportive care technologies and compulsory social service for young adults. Policymakers may use these results to support the selection of a portfolio of LTC policies that aligns with public preferences.
{"title":"Trade-offs in long-term care for older people in an ageing society: A constrained portfolio choice experiment","authors":"Sander Boxebeld , Niek Mouter , Job van Exel","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100599","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100599","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many countries face rapidly ageing populations, resulting in a rising demand for long-term care (LTC) for older people and an increased pressure on LTC systems. In responding to this development, governments face challenging trade-offs between different policy measures and their effects. To inform allocation decisions, this study elicited citizens’ policy preferences for LTC for older people in the Netherlands in 2040. We conducted a constrained portfolio choice experiment, in which 997 respondents composed a portfolio of their preferred policies, subject to a budget constraint, while being presented with the expected effects of their choices. Choices were analysed using a Multiple Discrete Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) choice model and a Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCCA). The results suggest a preference for distributing resources towards multiple policies, including both nursing and social care, over investing heavily in one or two particularly. Also, most respondents chose portfolios constituting a substantial public expenditure increase, suggesting a widespread willingness to accept a tax increase to allow for this. Preferences were particularly heterogeneous with respect to expenditure levels and the adoption of supportive care technologies and compulsory social service for young adults. Policymakers may use these results to support the selection of a portfolio of LTC policies that aligns with public preferences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100599"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145332751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-27DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100598
Mauro Maria Baldi, Raffaella Coppier, Elisabetta Michetti
The role of grandparents in the education process of grandchildren is becoming increasingly important, especially in economies experiencing positive human capital growth rates over time. To investigate the main forces driving such a phenomenon and the effect on human capital accumulation and growth, in the present work we propose an overlapping generations model where the time spent by grandparents on grandchildren’s education is endogenously determined to maximize the expected utility associated with the trade-off between leisure time and grandchildren’s education. By combining analytical tools and numerical simulations, our model shows that the more time grandparents spend educating their grandchildren - quantity - and the more educated they are - quality -, the more education is transmitted from older to younger generations, who will have higher levels of human capital, which will generate higher economic growth. Such a mechanism repeats over time, generating virtuous paths that work as drivers of human capital and physical capital growth.
{"title":"Driving human capital accumulation. The role of grandparents","authors":"Mauro Maria Baldi, Raffaella Coppier, Elisabetta Michetti","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The role of grandparents in the education process of grandchildren is becoming increasingly important, especially in economies experiencing positive human capital growth rates over time. To investigate the main forces driving such a phenomenon and the effect on human capital accumulation and growth, in the present work we propose an overlapping generations model where the time spent by grandparents on grandchildren’s education is endogenously determined to maximize the expected utility associated with the trade-off between leisure time and grandchildren’s education. By combining analytical tools and numerical simulations, our model shows that the more time grandparents spend educating their grandchildren - <em>quantity</em> - and the more educated they are - <em>quality</em> -, the more education is transmitted from older to younger generations, who will have higher levels of human capital, which will generate higher economic growth. Such a mechanism repeats over time, generating virtuous paths that work as drivers of human capital and physical capital growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100598"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-06-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100591
Ignacio Belloc , José Alberto Molina , Jorge Velilla
We study the impact of inheritances on physical and mental health outcomes, using a longitudinal, cross-country dataset covering 16 European countries over 2004–2017. The results show that the receipt of an inheritance is negatively associated with BMI and being obese among women. We also find evidence of an increase in the probability of experiencing depressive symptoms among women following an inheritance. When we account for individual heterogeneity, we find that the receipt of an inheritance increases the probability of being depressed by 2.3 percentage points among women. This finding is driven by unexpected inheritances and female heirs who are less educated, unmarried, unemployed, and living in Southern European countries. In addition, the receipt of an inheritance increases the probability of women engaging in vigorous and moderate physical activities by 2.6 and 2 percentage points, respectively.
{"title":"When wealth hurts: Inheritances and the health of older Europeans","authors":"Ignacio Belloc , José Alberto Molina , Jorge Velilla","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of inheritances on physical and mental health outcomes, using a longitudinal, cross-country dataset covering 16 European countries over 2004–2017. The results show that the receipt of an inheritance is negatively associated with BMI and being obese among women. We also find evidence of an increase in the probability of experiencing depressive symptoms among women following an inheritance. When we account for individual heterogeneity, we find that the receipt of an inheritance increases the probability of being depressed by 2.3 percentage points among women. This finding is driven by unexpected inheritances and female heirs who are less educated, unmarried, unemployed, and living in Southern European countries. In addition, the receipt of an inheritance increases the probability of women engaging in vigorous and moderate physical activities by 2.6 and 2 percentage points, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100591"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-06-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100592
Gang Qiao , Ruipeng Tan
We investigate the impact of aging on enterprise digital transformation in China. We find that aging significantly inhibits the digitalization level of enterprises. Mechanism analysis shows that aging is unfavorable to the digital transformation of enterprises by raising their labor costs, such as reducing the skilled labor supply, increasing wages and the relative prices of skills, and raising job training expenditure. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative impact of aging is more significant for firms facing stronger financing constraints, non-SOE firms, smaller scale firms, labor-intensive firms, and in the manufacturing and high-tech industries.
{"title":"Demographic change, firm costs, and digital transformation","authors":"Gang Qiao , Ruipeng Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the impact of aging on enterprise digital transformation in China. We find that aging significantly inhibits the digitalization level of enterprises. Mechanism analysis shows that aging is unfavorable to the digital transformation of enterprises by raising their labor costs, such as reducing the skilled labor supply, increasing wages and the relative prices of skills, and raising job training expenditure. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative impact of aging is more significant for firms facing stronger financing constraints, non-SOE firms, smaller scale firms, labor-intensive firms, and in the manufacturing and high-tech industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100592"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144470715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100603
Hiroyuki Motegi
This study examines social norms held by Japanese women regarding the elderly. Specifically, I conduct a regression analysis of attitudes toward social norms such as “Older parents should live with their children,” “Family members should care their elderly parents,” and “Financial support for the elderly should be provided by families rather than public institutions” in order to understand individual characteristics associated with holding these norms. I find the following: For example, more educated individuals have more progressive attitudes toward coresidence and informal care, but different attitudes toward financial support. Non-regular employees have the most progressive norms regarding the elderly among all employment statuses. Norms about the elderly are highly related to norms about gender and the division of gender roles. In addition, although family circumstances—such as parental education level and the status of one’s siblings—may influence an individual’s attitudes toward norms regarding the elderly, these attitudes are more likely to be shaped by the individual’s later life experiences, particularly their educational attainment and employment status.
{"title":"Understanding social norms for women toward the elderly: Evidence from Japan","authors":"Hiroyuki Motegi","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100603","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100603","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines social norms held by Japanese women regarding the elderly. Specifically, I conduct a regression analysis of attitudes toward social norms such as “Older parents should live with their children,” “Family members should care their elderly parents,” and “Financial support for the elderly should be provided by families rather than public institutions” in order to understand individual characteristics associated with holding these norms. I find the following: For example, more educated individuals have more progressive attitudes toward coresidence and informal care, but different attitudes toward financial support. Non-regular employees have the most progressive norms regarding the elderly among all employment statuses. Norms about the elderly are highly related to norms about gender and the division of gender roles. In addition, although family circumstances—such as parental education level and the status of one’s siblings—may influence an individual’s attitudes toward norms regarding the elderly, these attitudes are more likely to be shaped by the individual’s later life experiences, particularly their educational attainment and employment status.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100603"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145473840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-06-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100588
Jacob Hutchings , Adriana Lleras-Muney , Joshua Nicholls , Joseph Price , Sven E Wilson
Abundant research has demonstrated that substantial spousal concordance in health exists across multiple measures and populations and that the magnitude of this association is similar to spousal correlations in education and socioeconomic status. This strong spousal concordance in health results from both sorting in the marriage market and from behavioral and environmental risk factors shared by the couple. In this paper we test the hypothesis that the spousal correlation in lifespan–a summary measure of health–is similarly concordant. We create a new data set to investigate this hypothesis. We link about 15 million couples drawn from the US censuses of 1880–1940 to genealogical data available in family trees to obtain lifespan information for spouses. We document spousal correlations across time and compare spousal correlations in lifespan to opposite-gender sibling correlations in lifespan using a sample of 26 million opposite-gender sibling pairs. Surprisingly, and in contrast to what other health measures show, we find that the spousal lifespan correlation (0.063) is relatively small, though only a little smaller than the sibling correlation (0.076), which captures both genetic and early life environmental risk factors. However, we also find that the spousal correlation roughly doubles in size across cohorts (from around 0.05 for the 1880 birth cohort to 0.10 for the 1920 birth cohort). The fact that the spousal and sibling correlation track each other closely across cohorts suggests a growing importance of local risk factors that are shared by both spouses and siblings in determining lifespan, an interpretation that is also consistent with our other findings which suggest that the duration of marriage also increases spousal correlations. For the last decade, however, the growth in spousal correlation outpaces that of siblings, suggesting either increased assortative mating or an increase in the relative importance of couple-specific risk factors.
{"title":"Long-run patterns in the spousal correlation of lifespan","authors":"Jacob Hutchings , Adriana Lleras-Muney , Joshua Nicholls , Joseph Price , Sven E Wilson","doi":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Abundant research has demonstrated that substantial spousal concordance in health exists across multiple measures and populations and that the magnitude of this association is similar to spousal correlations in education and socioeconomic status. This strong spousal concordance in health results from both sorting in the marriage market and from behavioral and environmental risk factors shared by the couple. In this paper we test the hypothesis that the spousal correlation in lifespan–a summary measure of health–is similarly concordant. We create a new data set to investigate this hypothesis. We link about 15 million couples drawn from the US censuses of 1880–1940 to genealogical data available in family trees to obtain lifespan information for spouses. We document spousal correlations across time and compare spousal correlations in lifespan to opposite-gender sibling correlations in lifespan using a sample of 26 million opposite-gender sibling pairs. Surprisingly, and in contrast to what other health measures show, we find that the spousal lifespan correlation (0.063) is relatively small, though only a little smaller than the sibling correlation (0.076), which captures both genetic and early life environmental risk factors. However, we also find that the spousal correlation roughly doubles in size across cohorts (from around 0.05 for the 1880 birth cohort to 0.10 for the 1920 birth cohort). The fact that the spousal and sibling correlation track each other closely across cohorts suggests a growing importance of local risk factors that are shared by both spouses and siblings in determining lifespan, an interpretation that is also consistent with our other findings which suggest that the duration of marriage also increases spousal correlations. For the last decade, however, the growth in spousal correlation outpaces that of siblings, suggesting either increased assortative mating or an increase in the relative importance of couple-specific risk factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45848,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Economics of Ageing","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100588"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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