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Governing for the Future? life expectancy and the politics of environmental investment 为未来而治理?预期寿命和环境投资的政治
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2026.100621
Vincenzo Alfano , Salvatore Capasso , Marcello Signorelli
This article investigates whether the temporal orientation of political actors influences the allocation of public resources to environmental policy. We construct an original panel dataset covering Italy’s regions from 2000 to 2021, linking demographic information on both executives and legislative assemblies to disaggregated data on public expenditure. Using fractional response models, we estimate the effect of policymakers’ life expectancy-adjusted age on the share of environmental spending across current, capital, and total expenditure. Our results show that regions with legislative bodies with longer remaining life spans allocate a significantly smaller share to environmental policy, while the temporal horizon of executives exerts a positive influence on capital investment in the environment. These findings are robust across specifications and highlight the institutional asymmetries in the intertemporal politics of public goods. The study contributes to the literature on demographic influences on public finance, emphasizing how internal heterogeneity in politicians’ time horizons affects intergenerational policy choices.
本文研究了政治行为者的时间取向是否会影响公共资源对环境政策的配置。我们构建了一个覆盖2000年至2021年意大利各地区的原始面板数据集,将行政人员和立法议会的人口统计信息与公共支出的分类数据联系起来。使用分数响应模型,我们估计了政策制定者的预期寿命调整年龄对当前、资本和总支出中环境支出份额的影响。研究结果表明,立法机构剩余寿命较长的地区环境政策分配份额明显较小,而高管的时间跨度对环境资本投资有积极影响。这些发现在各种规格中都是稳健的,并突出了公共物品跨期政治中的制度不对称性。该研究为有关人口对公共财政影响的文献做出了贡献,强调了政治家时间跨度的内部异质性如何影响代际政策选择。
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引用次数: 0
Diabetes management in an ageing society: The role of nursing support in primary care 老龄化社会中的糖尿病管理:护理支持在初级保健中的作用
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100617
Marta Giachello , Cristina Ugolini , Rossella Verzulli
A growing share of the global population is affected by chronic conditions, prompting the development of various organizational models for chronic disease management. These models often emphasize the pivotal role of General Practitioners (GPs) and community health nurses in leading chronic care efforts.
Recognizing the significant burden of diabetes as a leading cause of disability and mortality, the Emilia-Romagna Region of Italy introduced clinical guidelines for diabetes management in 2010 to enhance the quality of care for patients with type 2 diabetes. This initiative enables GPs working within Community Health Homes to collaborate with Nursing Outpatient Clinics (NOCs) for more effective chronic disease management.
This study evaluates the impact of NOCs on key indicators of patient adherence with clinical guidelines. Using a balanced panel of administrative, individual-level data, we analyse the diabetic population over 65 years old within the largest Local Health Authority in Emilia-Romagna over a seven-year period (2010–2016). To assess the impact of NOCs on patient adherence, we employ alternative difference-in-differences approaches while accounting for heterogeneous treatment effects due to varying patient exposure periods.
Our findings indicate that patients enrolled with GPs who integrate NOCs into diabetes management exhibit significantly improved adherence to clinical guidelines. These results offer valuable insights for policymakers designing diabetes management programs that incorporate nursing support to enhance patient engagement and adherence.
越来越多的全球人口受到慢性病的影响,促使各种慢性病管理组织模式的发展。这些模式经常强调全科医生(全科医生)和社区卫生护士在领导慢性护理工作中的关键作用。意大利艾米利亚-罗马涅大区认识到糖尿病是导致残疾和死亡的主要原因,因此于2010年推出了糖尿病管理临床指南,以提高对2型糖尿病患者的护理质量。这一举措使在社区保健之家工作的全科医生能够与护理门诊诊所(noc)合作,更有效地管理慢性病。本研究评估noc对患者遵守临床指南的关键指标的影响。利用平衡的行政和个人层面的数据,我们分析了艾米利亚-罗马涅最大的地方卫生当局在7年期间(2010-2016年)65岁以上的糖尿病人口。为了评估noc对患者依从性的影响,我们采用了替代的差异中差异方法,同时考虑了由于不同患者暴露期而产生的异质性治疗效果。我们的研究结果表明,将noc纳入糖尿病管理的全科医生招募的患者对临床指南的依从性显著提高。这些结果为决策者设计糖尿病管理项目提供了有价值的见解,这些项目包括护理支持,以提高患者的参与度和依从性。
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引用次数: 0
Genetic risk for ADHD and later-life health and wellbeing: individual and spousal spillovers 多动症的遗传风险与晚年健康和幸福:个人和配偶的溢出效应
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2026.100619
Alessio Gaggero , Joan Gil , Dolores Jiménez-Rubio
The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we aim to provide evidence on the relationship between genetic predisposition to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and later-life health outcomes. Additionally, we investigate cross-spousal spillovers on both physical and mental health associated with genetic risk for this condition. Leveraging rich data for individuals aged 50+ and their partners in England our findings indicate poorer general wellbeing, physical and mental health among older individuals with a higher genetic risk of experiencing ADHD. Moreover, these associations are substantially larger for older women and individuals who are unmarried, relatively less educated and less wealthy. Our results also show that male partner’s genetic risk for ADHD negatively affects the health of their female partners, whereas female genetic risk predisposition does not appear to affect the health of their male partners. Moreover, these adverse effects on women are stronger among those who are relatively less educated and live in relatively poorer households. Finally, we present a number of robustness tests which validate the reliability of our approach.
本文的目的是双重的。首先,我们旨在为注意缺陷多动障碍(ADHD)的遗传易感性与晚年健康结果之间的关系提供证据。此外,我们还调查了与遗传风险相关的生理和心理健康的跨配偶溢出效应。利用英国50岁以上的个人及其伴侣的丰富数据,我们的发现表明,患有多动症的遗传风险较高的老年人的总体幸福感、身体和心理健康状况较差。此外,这些关联在老年妇女和未婚、受教育程度相对较低和较不富裕的个人中更大。我们的研究结果还表明,男性伴侣患多动症的遗传风险会对其女性伴侣的健康产生负面影响,而女性遗传风险倾向似乎不会影响其男性伴侣的健康。此外,这些对妇女的不利影响在受教育程度相对较低和生活在相对贫穷家庭的妇女中更为强烈。最后,我们提出了一些鲁棒性测试来验证我们的方法的可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
Informal caregiving and labor supply at older ages: Heterogeneity by firm-size before age 60 非正式照顾和老年劳动力供给:60岁前公司规模的异质性
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2026.100618
Tomohiko Moriyama
This study examines how informal caregiving for parents affects the employment of Japanese adults aged 60–70 and whether firm size at age 59 moderates this relationship. Using longitudinal panel data, the results show that caregiving reduces employment probability, more strongly for women than for men, but has no significant effect on working hours. Among men, the negative impact is pronounced for those employed in small and medium-sized enterprises before age 60, while it is weaker for those from large firms. These findings suggest that firm size immediately before age 60 not only shapes employment trajectories beyond that age but also constrains the range of responses available when individuals face unexpected life events such as informal caregiving responsibilities.
本研究考察了父母的非正式照顾如何影响60-70岁日本成年人的就业,以及59岁时公司规模是否调节了这种关系。利用纵向面板数据,结果表明,照顾对就业概率的影响,女性比男性更强烈,但对工作时间没有显著影响。在男性中,60岁以前在中小企业工作的人受到的负面影响明显,而在大企业工作的人受到的负面影响较弱。这些发现表明,60岁之前的公司规模不仅塑造了60岁之后的就业轨迹,而且还限制了个人在面临诸如非正式照顾责任等意外生活事件时的反应范围。
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引用次数: 0
Did seniors benefit from consumption and public transfers at the expense of youth? Evidence from National Transfer Accounts in Canada’s Provinces (1997–2017) 老年人是否以牺牲年轻人的利益为代价,从消费和公共转移中获益?来自加拿大各省国民转移支付账户的证据(1997-2017)
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100609
Marcel Mérette , Julien Navaux
National Transfer Accounts (NTA) integrate micro- and macro-level data to measure the ways individuals of various ages produce, consume, save, and share resources. This methodology has been applied in more than 100 countries worldwide following United Nations guidelines. This paper proposes a theoretical framework for constructing NTA at the subnational level and presents an application across five Canadian regions from 1997 to 2017. We report two important findings. First, substantial interregional transfers in Canada reduce disparities among regions. Second, the per capita consumption of seniors, compared to individuals aged 0 to 24, remained stable over the two decades analyzed. Additionally, public transfers—whether or not they account for transfers paid—received by seniors relative to younger individuals declined over the 20-year study period. Consequently, in all Canadian regions, seniors did not gain an advantage in consumption and public transfers at the expense of young individuals between 1997 and 2017.
国民转移账户(National Transfer Accounts, NTA)综合了微观和宏观层面的数据,以衡量不同年龄的个人生产、消费、储蓄和共享资源的方式。按照联合国的指导方针,这一方法已在全世界100多个国家得到应用。本文提出了在次国家层面构建NTA的理论框架,并在1997 - 2017年对加拿大五个地区进行了应用。我们报告两个重要的发现。首先,加拿大大量的地区间转移减少了地区间的差距。其次,与0至24岁的人相比,老年人的人均消费在分析的20年里保持稳定。此外,在20年的研究期间,与年轻人相比,老年人获得的公共转移支付——无论是否算上已支付的转移支付——有所下降。因此,在1997年至2017年期间,在加拿大所有地区,老年人并没有以牺牲年轻人为代价在消费和公共转移方面获得优势。
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引用次数: 0
Grandparents in Blue? The Impact of Grandparenthood on Mental Health and Healthcare Utilization in China 穿蓝衣服的祖父母?祖父母身份对中国人心理健康和医疗保健利用的影响
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2026.100622
Zhuang Hao , Zhenhao Ning , Yi Zhang
Recent studies, especially those from developed countries, find little causal effect of grandparenthood on older individuals’ mental health. However, the results may differ in developing contexts, where grandparents often face unique challenges, such as insufficient formal childcare, inadequate pension support, a higher likelihood of remaining in the workforce, and significant healthcare copayment burdens. Using four waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey and a fixed-effects difference-in-differences approach, we find that becoming a grandparent adversely affects the mental health and self-rated health of older adults in China. The transition to grandparent also increases outpatient care utilization and out-of-pocket costs for outpatient services. Grandmothers and those with vulnerable socio-economic backgrounds are more susceptible to these negative health impacts and increased healthcare costs. Grandchild care emerges as a major channel through which these effects manifest, with grandparenthood leading to an average monthly increase of 83 h in grandchild care. Additionally, reduced working hours combined with an increased likelihood of retirement, poorer health behaviors, and strained relationships with children all contribute to explaining the main findings. Our findings highlight the overlooked health costs of grandparenting in developing countries. Expanding access to formal childcare may mitigate the negative health impacts on older caregivers and improve overall well-being among aging populations.
最近的研究,特别是来自发达国家的研究发现,祖父母身份对老年人的心理健康几乎没有因果关系。然而,在发展中国家,结果可能会有所不同,在发展中国家,祖父母往往面临着独特的挑战,例如正规托儿服务不足、养老金支持不足、留在劳动力市场的可能性更高,以及医疗保健共同支付负担沉重。利用四波中国健康与退休纵向调查和固定效应差异中的差异方法,我们发现成为祖父母对中国老年人的心理健康和自评健康有不利影响。向祖父母的过渡也增加了门诊服务的利用率和门诊服务的自付费用。祖母和社会经济背景脆弱的人更容易受到这些负面健康影响和医疗保健费用增加的影响。孙辈照顾成为这些影响显现的主要渠道,孙辈照顾孙辈的时间平均每月增加83小时。此外,工作时间减少、退休可能性增加、健康行为不佳以及与子女关系紧张都有助于解释主要发现。我们的研究结果突出了发展中国家被忽视的祖父母的健康成本。扩大获得正规托儿服务的机会可以减轻对老年照顾者的负面健康影响,并改善老龄人口的整体福祉。
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引用次数: 0
Employment and productivity in an ageing society: Japan in international perspective 老龄化社会中的就业与生产力:国际视野中的日本
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2026.100624
Christophe André, Peter Gal, Matthias Schief
Japan is ahead of most other countries in the global population ageing process. Its working-age population (aged 20–64) peaked in 1998, compared to 2011 in the European Union, while continued growth is expected in the United States until 2070, albeit at a declining pace. In this paper, we analyse employment and productivity developments in Japan since 1998 and examine how Japan differs from other OECD countries in various dimensions potentially related to ageing. Rising employment among women and older workers has lifted Japan’s employment rate to one of the highest levels in the OECD. However, older workers tend to be employed in low-productivity jobs. Despite rising labour shortages, immigration is much lower in Japan than in most other OECD countries. Ageing has led to the adoption of some labour-saving technologies, notably robots. Nevertheless, business dynamism is weak in international comparison and population ageing creates challenges for business succession. Changes in the consumption structure have been modest. Age-related spending contributed significantly to the deterioration of fiscal positions. Overall, even though Japan has been able to cope with ageing relatively well, its economic developments over the past decades illustrate the challenges of enhancing job quality at the same time as raising employment rates, sustaining innovation and preserving public finance sustainability in an ageing society.
在全球人口老龄化进程中,日本走在大多数其他国家的前面。中国的劳动年龄人口(20-64岁)在1998年达到峰值,而欧盟的这一数字为2011年,而美国的劳动年龄人口预计将持续增长至2070年,尽管增速有所下降。在本文中,我们分析了日本自1998年以来的就业和生产力发展,并研究了日本在与老龄化潜在相关的各个方面与其他经合组织国家的不同之处。随着女性和老年工人就业率的上升,日本的就业率已升至经合组织成员国中最高的水平之一。然而,年长的工人往往从事低生产率的工作。尽管劳动力短缺问题日益严重,但日本的移民数量远低于其他大多数经合组织国家。老龄化导致人们采用了一些节省劳动力的技术,尤其是机器人。然而,在国际比较中,商业活力较弱,人口老龄化给企业传承带来挑战。消费结构的变化是温和的。与年龄有关的开支大大加剧了财政状况的恶化。总体而言,尽管日本能够相对较好地应对老龄化问题,但过去几十年的经济发展表明,在老龄化社会中,在提高就业率、持续创新和保持公共财政可持续性的同时,提高工作质量面临着挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Decomposing longevity: How life expectancy changes around the world 分解寿命:世界各地的预期寿命如何变化
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100587
Martin G. Haas, Uwe Sunde
In economics, most empirical studies of the consequences of changes in longevity focus on life expectancy, without considering other moments of the survival probability distribution. Here, we apply a novel parsimonious parametric and easily implementable decomposition method of variation in longevity based on life table information. We document several empirical facts of longevity changes around the world and their associations with aggregate population dynamics and economic development, and demonstrate that a parametric decomposition of changes in longevity beyond life expectancy can be very useful for various applications.
在经济学中,大多数关于寿命变化后果的实证研究都集中在预期寿命上,而没有考虑生存概率分布的其他时刻。本文提出了一种新的基于生命表信息的寿命变化分解方法,该方法参数简洁,易于实现。我们记录了世界各地寿命变化的几个经验事实及其与总人口动态和经济发展的联系,并证明了超出预期寿命的寿命变化的参数分解对各种应用都非常有用。
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引用次数: 0
Who supports carbon pricing? Older adults’ financial literacy and attitudes toward carbon taxation 谁支持碳定价?老年人的金融知识和对碳税的态度
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100595
Joelle H. Fong, Yuhao Ba, Zhe Chen
We investigate how financial literacy impacts older adults’ views on carbon taxation and climate fiscal policies. Using a representative survey in Singapore, we find that financially savvy older adults are generally less supportive of climate fiscal policies in that they are less likely to perceive carbon tax as fair or believe that increasing carbon tax will help increase employment. We provide empirical evidence that these relationships are causal. Interestingly also, the negative causal effect of financial knowledge on older adults’ attitudes towards carbon taxes is predominantly driven by their inflation literacy. Those more knowledgeable about inflation have higher awareness that carbon pricing can lead to higher costs of production and costs of living. Other personal factors that shape older adult’s attitudes on carbon taxation include age, marital status, and income. As future cohorts of elderly become more financially literate, communication campaigns on climate change and carbon taxation directed towards older demographic groups are urgently warranted.
我们调查了金融知识如何影响老年人对碳税和气候财政政策的看法。通过在新加坡进行的一项代表性调查,我们发现具有财务头脑的老年人通常不太支持气候财政政策,因为他们不太可能认为碳税是公平的,或者认为增加碳税将有助于增加就业。我们提供的经验证据表明,这些关系是因果关系。有趣的是,金融知识对老年人对碳税态度的负面因果效应主要是由他们的通货膨胀知识驱动的。那些更了解通货膨胀的人更能意识到碳定价会导致更高的生产成本和生活成本。影响老年人对碳税态度的其他个人因素包括年龄、婚姻状况和收入。随着未来的老年人越来越懂得理财,针对老年人口群体的气候变化和碳税宣传活动迫在眉睫。
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引用次数: 0
Aging workforce and industrial Robots: Industry-Level evidence from Japan 老龄化劳动力和工业机器人:来自日本的工业层面证据
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100602
Fang Chen, Wenge Liu
As demographic aging intensifies globally, the aging of the labor force is exerting significant impacts on technological adoption, industrial restructuring, and pathways toward sustainable development. This study empirically investigates the effect of labor force aging on the adoption of industrial robots by employing industry-level panel data from Japan spanning 1996 to 2018. A fixed-effects regression model is used to control for unobserved industry and year heterogeneity, while human capital variables—including educational attainment and average wage—are incorporated to assess potential moderating effects.
The results indicate that labor force aging significantly facilitates the deployment of industrial robots, particularly in manufacturing and capital-intensive industries, whereas the effect is statistically insignificant in service-oriented and labor-intensive sectors. Furthermore, higher average wages strengthen the positive relationship between labor force aging and robot adoption, while educational attainment shows no significant moderating effect. Robustness tests using alternative aging measures (e.g., working hours by age group) and lagged explanatory variables confirm the stability of the findings.
This study contributes to the literature by revealing the demographic underpinnings of automation trends, emphasizing the role of labor composition in shaping technological transitions. The findings offer policy implications for aging societies aiming to enhance resilience and productivity through automation. Future research should expand the scope by exploring cross-national comparisons and investigating the potential of intelligent automation in non-standard labor markets and service-oriented domains.
随着全球人口老龄化的加剧,劳动力老龄化正在对技术采用、产业结构调整和可持续发展路径产生重大影响。本研究采用日本1996年至2018年的行业层面面板数据,实证研究了劳动力老龄化对工业机器人采用的影响。固定效应回归模型用于控制未观察到的行业和年份异质性,而人力资本变量-包括受教育程度和平均工资-被纳入评估潜在的调节效应。研究结果表明,劳动力老龄化显著促进了工业机器人的部署,尤其是在制造业和资本密集型行业,而在服务型和劳动密集型行业,这种影响在统计上不显著。此外,较高的平均工资水平强化了劳动力老龄化与机器人采用之间的正相关关系,而受教育程度没有显著的调节作用。使用替代老龄化措施(例如,按年龄组工作时间)和滞后解释变量进行的稳健性测试证实了研究结果的稳定性。本研究通过揭示自动化趋势的人口基础,强调劳动力构成在塑造技术转型中的作用,为文献做出了贡献。研究结果为旨在通过自动化提高复原力和生产力的老龄化社会提供了政策启示。未来的研究应该通过探索跨国比较和调查智能自动化在非标准劳动力市场和面向服务领域的潜力来扩大范围。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of the Economics of Ageing
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