Journal of the Economics of Ageing最新文献

Japan at the forefront of the economics of aging? A bibliometric analysis 日本走在老龄化经济学的前沿？文献计量学分析

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100601

Sébastien Lechevalier , Brieuc Monfort

This paper analyzes how economists have considered the question of aging over the last fifty years. The major originality of this paper is to conduct a bibliometric analysis of the economics of aging literature, based on the textual analysis of three different and complementary corpora, while existing studies only concern subfields. It shows that the definition of the economics of aging is less straightforward than expected and introduces some identification criteria to get quantitative results on the growth of the literature, its geography, and its research agenda. One claim of the paper is that aging has emerged as a distinct topic that spans different fields, from population to labor economics, and has strong connections with health economics, macroeconomics, and public economics. Topics of interest have evolved over time with notably a major growth for health issues, while pensions issues have been at the center of the investigation for several decades. In addition, we show that the geography of the economics of aging does not correspond to the geography of aging, with Japan somewhat underrepresented in the literature. Lastly, we draw some lessons from this neglect in the dominant research agenda on the economics of aging and suggest directions for future research that would give to Japan more space in comparative studies, given its position at the forefront of aging.

本文分析了经济学家在过去50年里是如何看待老龄化问题的。本文的主要创新之处在于对老龄化文献经济学进行了文献计量学分析，基于对三种不同且互补的语料库的文本分析，而现有的研究只涉及子领域。它表明老龄化经济学的定义不如预期的简单，并引入了一些识别标准，以获得关于文献增长，地理和研究议程的定量结果。该论文的一个主张是，老龄化已经成为一个跨越不同领域的独特主题，从人口到劳动经济学，并且与健康经济学，宏观经济学和公共经济学有着密切的联系。随着时间的推移，人们感兴趣的话题也在不断演变，特别是健康问题的大幅增长，而养老金问题几十年来一直是调查的中心。此外，我们发现老龄化经济学的地理分布与老龄化的地理分布并不对应，日本在文献中的代表性不足。最后，我们从老龄化经济学的主流研究议程中吸取了一些教训，并提出了未来研究的方向，考虑到日本在老龄化研究中的前沿地位，日本将在比较研究中获得更多的空间。

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引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic and fiscal implications of changes in the labor share under population aging in Japan 日本人口老龄化背景下劳动收入占比变化的宏观经济和财政影响

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100608

Tomoaki Yamada

This study examines how declining labor share affects macroeconomic outcomes and fiscal sustainability in Japan—the country with the most advanced population aging globally. While previous research has documented the global trend of declining labor share, its implications for fiscal policy in aging societies remain underexplored. Using a life-cycle general equilibrium model in the Auerbach–Kotlikoff tradition, we calibrate parameters to match Japan’s economic and demographic characteristics, incorporating country-specific institutions such as public pension, health insurance, and long-term care systems. Our analysis reveals that when capital share increases by 3 percentage points between 2025–2060, it generates fiscal relief equivalent to approximately 3 percentage points in consumption tax by 2070 through enhanced capital accumulation. More significantly, this declining labor share amplifies the efficacy of pension reforms, potentially yielding savings equivalent to over 12 percentage points in consumption tax. Our findings suggest that declining labor share, when coupled with appropriate policy reforms, may benefit fiscal sustainability in rapidly aging societies with high public debt.

本研究考察了劳动收入占比下降如何影响日本的宏观经济结果和财政可持续性，日本是全球人口老龄化最严重的国家。虽然之前的研究已经记录了劳动收入占比下降的全球趋势，但其对老龄化社会财政政策的影响仍未得到充分探讨。使用Auerbach-Kotlikoff传统的生命周期一般均衡模型，我们校准参数以匹配日本的经济和人口特征，并结合国家特定的制度，如公共养老金、医疗保险和长期护理系统。我们的分析显示，在2025年至2060年期间，当资本份额增加3个百分点时，通过加强资本积累，到2070年，它产生的财政减免相当于大约3个百分点的消费税。更重要的是，劳动收入占比的下降放大了养老金改革的效果，可能会产生相当于消费税削减逾12个百分点的储蓄。我们的研究结果表明，劳动收入占比的下降，加上适当的政策改革，可能有利于公共债务高的快速老龄化社会的财政可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

Free health check-ups and chronic disease care among older adults in China 中国老年人的免费健康检查和慢性病护理

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100607

Zhiyong Huang , Fabrice Kämpfen

We evaluate the impact of a free health check-up program targeting older adults in China on the diagnosis and management of chronic diseases, focusing on hypertension and diabetes. Drawing on nine years of panel data from five waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we use a fixed-effects instrumental variable (IV) strategy that leverages age-based eligibility (65+) for free check-ups to address endogeneity in health service uptake. Our findings show that eligibility for a check-up increases the probability of diabetes diagnosis by 8.3 percentage points (p = 0.042), with even stronger effects for women in rural areas (13.3 percentage points, p = 0.063). In contrast, we find no significant impact on hypertension diagnosis. Although the check-up policy improves diabetes detection, our causal estimates show no statistically significant effects on treatment, disease control, or provider recommendations. For hypertension, the policy raises lifestyle advice, but we estimate no precise impacts on clinical outcomes. These results suggest that while preventive screening can enhance disease detection among older adults, substantial gaps remain in the delivery of effective follow-up care and disease management. This has important implications for designing cost-effective chronic disease interventions in aging populations.

我们评估了针对中国老年人的免费健康检查项目对慢性病诊断和管理的影响，重点是高血压和糖尿病。利用中国健康与退休纵向研究（CHARLS）的五波9年面板数据，我们使用固定效应工具变量（IV）策略，利用基于年龄的免费检查资格（65岁以上）来解决卫生服务接受的内质性问题。我们的研究结果表明，接受检查的资格使糖尿病诊断的可能性增加8.3个百分点（p = 0.042），对农村妇女的影响更大（13.3个百分点，p = 0.063）。相反，我们发现对高血压的诊断没有显著影响。虽然检查政策提高了糖尿病的检出率，但我们的因果估计显示在治疗、疾病控制或医生推荐方面没有统计学上显著的影响。对于高血压，该政策提出了生活方式建议，但我们估计对临床结果没有确切的影响。这些结果表明，虽然预防性筛查可以提高老年人的疾病检测，但在提供有效的随访护理和疾病管理方面仍存在巨大差距。这对于设计具有成本效益的老龄人口慢性病干预措施具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of aging on entrepreneurship and aggregate productivity 老龄化对企业家精神和总生产率的影响

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100605

Takeo Hoshi , Naomi Kodama , Huiyu Li

Using firm-level data in Japan, this paper documents hump-shaped relationships between (1) the propensity to be entrepreneurs and individuals’ age, and (2) firm sales and sales per worker with entrepreneurs’ age. We examine these patterns using a general equilibrium model in which aging of the population affects total factor productivity (TFP) through selection into entrepreneurship. We use the model to project changes in output per capita as the population ages according to the official projections of the Japanese government. Over the next three decades, aging can lower TFP and hence output per capita through the selection of entrepreneurs, but the effect is quantitatively small.

本文利用日本企业层面的数据，证明了(1)创业倾向与个人年龄之间的驼峰关系，以及(2)企业销售额和员工人均销售额与企业家年龄之间的驼峰关系。我们使用一般均衡模型来检验这些模式，其中人口老龄化通过选择创业来影响全要素生产率（TFP）。我们根据日本政府的官方预测，使用该模型来预测随着人口老龄化人均产出的变化。在接下来的30年里，老龄化可以通过企业家的选择降低全要素生产率，从而降低人均产出，但这种影响在数量上很小。

引用次数: 0

Comparing age-happiness relationships between Japan and Europe 比较日本和欧洲的年龄-幸福关系

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100606

Takashi Oshio , Satoshi Shimizutani

Numerous studies have examined the existence of the “well-being paradox,” according to which subjective well-being is stable or even improves in later life despite worsening health and social losses. However, no consensus has been reached regarding the factors that account for this paradox. We used repeated cross-sectional survey data from Japan and three European countries (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) over two decades to compare happiness trajectories over age and factors affecting happiness across the four countries. When we used unadjusted data, we observed U-shaped age-happiness curves in Japan and S-shaped curves in Europe. When we controlled for four intervening variables (marital status, income, job status, and health), we saw that age-related challenges in those areas generally inhibited what would otherwise be a more substantial rise in happiness in later life for the three European countries. Each intervening variable’s role differed substantially across countries and sexes. Notably, a change in job status from working to retirement decreased happiness more substantially in Europe than in Japan, and this is not the case for Japanese females.

许多研究调查了“幸福悖论”的存在，根据该悖论，尽管健康状况恶化和社会损失，但主观幸福感在晚年仍然稳定甚至改善。然而，关于造成这一矛盾的因素还没有达成共识。我们使用了日本和三个欧洲国家（法国、德国和英国）20多年来的重复横断面调查数据，来比较四个国家随年龄增长的幸福轨迹和影响幸福的因素。当我们使用未经调整的数据时，我们观察到日本的年龄幸福曲线为u形，欧洲为s形。当我们控制了四个干预变量（婚姻状况、收入、工作状况和健康）时，我们发现，在这些领域，年龄相关的挑战通常会抑制三个欧洲国家在晚年生活中幸福感的大幅上升。每个干预变量的作用在不同国家和性别之间有很大差异。值得注意的是，在欧洲，从工作到退休的工作状态变化对幸福感的影响比日本更大，但日本女性的情况并非如此。

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引用次数: 0

Who has benefited from nursing home expansion in Japan?: The effects of government supply-side intervention 谁从日本养老院的扩张中受益？：政府供给侧干预的效果

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100604

Yoshinori Nishimura , Masato Oikawa

This study analyzes the relationship between the labor force participation of caregivers and the provision of informal in-home older adults care. In Japan, the national government regulates the market entry of nursing home suppliers, and accordingly intervenes in the supply side of the older adults care market. Using exogenous variations in this supply side intervention, our analysis finds that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing homes has increased the labor force participation of female workers with low opportunity costs in the labor market, but simultaneously reduced their provision of informal care. As the per capita expense of nursing home care is higher than the wage income of most non-regular female workers who tend to provide the bulk of informal in-home care, it is possible that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing home capacity has already reached its point of maximum effectiveness.

本研究分析照顾者劳动力参与与提供非正式居家照顾的关系。在日本，国家政府对养老院供应商的市场准入进行监管，从而对老年人护理市场的供给侧进行干预。在这种供给侧干预中使用外生变量，我们的分析发现，日本扩大养老院的政策增加了劳动力市场中低机会成本女性工人的劳动力参与，但同时减少了她们提供的非正式护理。由于养老院护理的人均费用高于大多数非正规女工的工资收入，而非正规女工往往提供大量的家庭护理，因此日本扩大养老院容量的政策可能已经达到了最大效果。

引用次数: 0

Understanding social norms for women toward the elderly: Evidence from Japan 理解女性对待老年人的社会规范：来自日本的证据

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100603

Hiroyuki Motegi

This study examines social norms held by Japanese women regarding the elderly. Specifically, I conduct a regression analysis of attitudes toward social norms such as “Older parents should live with their children,” “Family members should care their elderly parents,” and “Financial support for the elderly should be provided by families rather than public institutions” in order to understand individual characteristics associated with holding these norms. I find the following: For example, more educated individuals have more progressive attitudes toward coresidence and informal care, but different attitudes toward financial support. Non-regular employees have the most progressive norms regarding the elderly among all employment statuses. Norms about the elderly are highly related to norms about gender and the division of gender roles. In addition, although family circumstances—such as parental education level and the status of one’s siblings—may influence an individual’s attitudes toward norms regarding the elderly, these attitudes are more likely to be shaped by the individual’s later life experiences, particularly their educational attainment and employment status.

本研究考察了日本女性对老年人的社会规范。具体来说，我对社会规范的态度进行了回归分析，例如“年长的父母应该和他们的孩子住在一起”，“家庭成员应该照顾他们年迈的父母”，“老年人的经济支持应该由家庭而不是公共机构提供”，以了解与持有这些规范相关的个人特征。我发现：例如，受教育程度越高的人对同居和非正式照顾的态度越进步，但对经济支持的态度不同。在所有雇佣状态中，非正式雇员对老年人的规范是最先进的。关于老年人的规范与性别规范和性别角色划分高度相关。此外，虽然家庭环境——比如父母的教育水平和兄弟姐妹的地位——可能会影响一个人对老年人规范的态度，但这些态度更有可能是由个人后来的生活经历塑造的，尤其是他们的教育程度和就业状况。

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引用次数: 0

Aging workforce and industrial Robots: Industry-Level evidence from Japan 老龄化劳动力和工业机器人：来自日本的工业层面证据

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100602

Fang Chen, Wenge Liu

As demographic aging intensifies globally, the aging of the labor force is exerting significant impacts on technological adoption, industrial restructuring, and pathways toward sustainable development. This study empirically investigates the effect of labor force aging on the adoption of industrial robots by employing industry-level panel data from Japan spanning 1996 to 2018. A fixed-effects regression model is used to control for unobserved industry and year heterogeneity, while human capital variables—including educational attainment and average wage—are incorporated to assess potential moderating effects.

The results indicate that labor force aging significantly facilitates the deployment of industrial robots, particularly in manufacturing and capital-intensive industries, whereas the effect is statistically insignificant in service-oriented and labor-intensive sectors. Furthermore, higher average wages strengthen the positive relationship between labor force aging and robot adoption, while educational attainment shows no significant moderating effect. Robustness tests using alternative aging measures (e.g., working hours by age group) and lagged explanatory variables confirm the stability of the findings.

This study contributes to the literature by revealing the demographic underpinnings of automation trends, emphasizing the role of labor composition in shaping technological transitions. The findings offer policy implications for aging societies aiming to enhance resilience and productivity through automation. Future research should expand the scope by exploring cross-national comparisons and investigating the potential of intelligent automation in non-standard labor markets and service-oriented domains.

随着全球人口老龄化的加剧，劳动力老龄化正在对技术采用、产业结构调整和可持续发展路径产生重大影响。本研究采用日本1996年至2018年的行业层面面板数据，实证研究了劳动力老龄化对工业机器人采用的影响。固定效应回归模型用于控制未观察到的行业和年份异质性，而人力资本变量-包括受教育程度和平均工资-被纳入评估潜在的调节效应。研究结果表明，劳动力老龄化显著促进了工业机器人的部署，尤其是在制造业和资本密集型行业，而在服务型和劳动密集型行业，这种影响在统计上不显著。此外，较高的平均工资水平强化了劳动力老龄化与机器人采用之间的正相关关系，而受教育程度没有显著的调节作用。使用替代老龄化措施（例如，按年龄组工作时间）和滞后解释变量进行的稳健性测试证实了研究结果的稳定性。本研究通过揭示自动化趋势的人口基础，强调劳动力构成在塑造技术转型中的作用，为文献做出了贡献。研究结果为旨在通过自动化提高复原力和生产力的老龄化社会提供了政策启示。未来的研究应该通过探索跨国比较和调查智能自动化在非标准劳动力市场和面向服务领域的潜力来扩大范围。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of macroeconomic conditions on long-term care: Evidence on prices 宏观经济条件对长期护理的影响：价格证据

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100600

Johannes Geyer , Peter Haan , Mia Teschner

The price of institutional long-term care is a key determinant of the demand for both formal and informal long-term care. In this paper, we examine how the regional unemployment rate as a proxy for macroeconomic conditions influences these prices. Our analysis draws on administrative data that provide detailed information on all nursing homes and ambulatory care services, as well as all recipients of long-term care benefits in Germany. For identification, we exploit variation in macroeconomic conditions—measured by district-level unemployment rates over time—using a panel data approach with facility and time fixed effects.

Our empirical findings indicate that higher unemployment rates lead to increased prices for permanent long-term care, including accommodation and meal costs in nursing homes. We provide evidence for the mechanisms underlying these price effects. While we find no significant impact of macroeconomic conditions on employment, working hours, or quality of care in nursing homes, our results suggest that higher unemployment rates raise nursing home prices through changes in the composition of patients. Specifically, economic downturns trigger a shift from recipients with lower levels of impairment to those requiring more labor-intensive care. Additionally, we observe a substitution effect, whereby low-impairment patients increasingly opt for ambulatory and informal home care instead of institutional care.

机构长期护理的价格是正式和非正式长期护理需求的关键决定因素。在本文中，我们研究了地区失业率作为宏观经济条件的代理如何影响这些价格。我们的分析借鉴了行政数据，这些数据提供了德国所有养老院和门诊护理服务以及所有长期护理福利接受者的详细信息。为了识别，我们利用宏观经济条件的变化——通过地区失业率随时间的变化来衡量——使用具有设施和时间固定效应的面板数据方法。我们的实证研究结果表明，较高的失业率导致永久性长期护理的价格上涨，包括养老院的住宿和膳食成本。我们为这些价格效应背后的机制提供了证据。虽然我们发现宏观经济条件对养老院的就业、工作时间或护理质量没有显著影响，但我们的研究结果表明，高失业率通过改变患者的构成来提高养老院的价格。具体来说，经济衰退引发了从受损程度较低的受助人向需要更多劳动密集型护理的受助人的转变。此外，我们观察到替代效应，即低损伤患者越来越多地选择门诊和非正式的家庭护理，而不是机构护理。

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引用次数: 0

Trade-offs in long-term care for older people in an ageing society: A constrained portfolio choice experiment 老龄化社会中老年人长期护理的权衡：一个受限的投资组合选择实验

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100599

Sander Boxebeld , Niek Mouter , Job van Exel

Many countries face rapidly ageing populations, resulting in a rising demand for long-term care (LTC) for older people and an increased pressure on LTC systems. In responding to this development, governments face challenging trade-offs between different policy measures and their effects. To inform allocation decisions, this study elicited citizens’ policy preferences for LTC for older people in the Netherlands in 2040. We conducted a constrained portfolio choice experiment, in which 997 respondents composed a portfolio of their preferred policies, subject to a budget constraint, while being presented with the expected effects of their choices. Choices were analysed using a Multiple Discrete Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) choice model and a Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCCA). The results suggest a preference for distributing resources towards multiple policies, including both nursing and social care, over investing heavily in one or two particularly. Also, most respondents chose portfolios constituting a substantial public expenditure increase, suggesting a widespread willingness to accept a tax increase to allow for this. Preferences were particularly heterogeneous with respect to expenditure levels and the adoption of supportive care technologies and compulsory social service for young adults. Policymakers may use these results to support the selection of a portfolio of LTC policies that aligns with public preferences.

许多国家面临人口迅速老龄化的问题，导致老年人对长期护理的需求不断增加，长期护理系统面临的压力也越来越大。在应对这一发展时，各国政府面临着在不同政策措施及其效果之间进行权衡的挑战。为了为分配决策提供信息，本研究得出了2040年荷兰公民对老年人LTC的政策偏好。我们进行了一个有约束的投资组合选择实验，其中997名受访者在预算约束下组成了他们偏好的投资组合，同时向他们展示了他们选择的预期效果。使用多重离散连续极值（MDCEV）选择模型和潜在类聚类分析（LCCA）分析选择。结果表明，人们更倾向于将资源分配给多种政策，包括护理和社会护理，而不是在一项或两项政策上进行大量投资。此外，大多数受访者选择了构成大量公共支出增加的投资组合，这表明人们普遍愿意接受增加税收以实现这一目标。在支出水平和采用支持性护理技术以及为年轻人提供强制性社会服务方面，偏好特别不一致。政策制定者可以利用这些结果来支持选择符合公众偏好的LTC政策组合。

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引用次数: 0