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Long-run patterns in the spousal correlation of lifespan 配偶寿命相关性的长期模式
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100588
Jacob Hutchings , Adriana Lleras-Muney , Joshua Nicholls , Joseph Price , Sven E Wilson
Abundant research has demonstrated that substantial spousal concordance in health exists across multiple measures and populations and that the magnitude of this association is similar to spousal correlations in education and socioeconomic status. This strong spousal concordance in health results from both sorting in the marriage market and from behavioral and environmental risk factors shared by the couple. In this paper we test the hypothesis that the spousal correlation in lifespan–a summary measure of health–is similarly concordant. We create a new data set to investigate this hypothesis. We link about 15 million couples drawn from the US censuses of 1880–1940 to genealogical data available in family trees to obtain lifespan information for spouses. We document spousal correlations across time and compare spousal correlations in lifespan to opposite-gender sibling correlations in lifespan using a sample of 26 million opposite-gender sibling pairs. Surprisingly, and in contrast to what other health measures show, we find that the spousal lifespan correlation (0.063) is relatively small, though only a little smaller than the sibling correlation (0.076), which captures both genetic and early life environmental risk factors. However, we also find that the spousal correlation roughly doubles in size across cohorts (from around 0.05 for the 1880 birth cohort to 0.10 for the 1920 birth cohort). The fact that the spousal and sibling correlation track each other closely across cohorts suggests a growing importance of local risk factors that are shared by both spouses and siblings in determining lifespan, an interpretation that is also consistent with our other findings which suggest that the duration of marriage also increases spousal correlations. For the last decade, however, the growth in spousal correlation outpaces that of siblings, suggesting either increased assortative mating or an increase in the relative importance of couple-specific risk factors.
大量的研究表明,配偶在健康方面的一致性存在于多种测量和人群中,这种相关性的程度与配偶在教育和社会经济地位方面的相关性相似。配偶在健康方面的这种强烈一致性源于婚姻市场的分类以及夫妻共同的行为和环境风险因素。在这篇论文中,我们检验了一个假设,即配偶与寿命的相关性——一种健康的综合衡量标准——同样是一致的。我们创建了一个新的数据集来调查这个假设。我们将从1880-1940年美国人口普查中抽取的约1500万对夫妇与家谱中可用的家谱数据联系起来,以获得配偶的寿命信息。我们记录了配偶在不同时期的相关性,并使用2600万对异性兄弟姐妹的样本,将配偶在寿命上的相关性与异性兄弟姐妹在寿命上的相关性进行了比较。令人惊讶的是,与其他健康测量结果相比,我们发现配偶寿命的相关性(0.063)相对较小,尽管只比兄弟姐妹的相关性(0.076)小一点,兄弟姐妹的相关性涵盖了遗传和早期生活环境的风险因素。然而,我们也发现,配偶相关性在队列中大约翻了一番(从1880年出生队列的0.05左右到1920年出生队列的0.10)。配偶和兄弟姐妹之间的相关性在整个队列中密切跟踪,这一事实表明,配偶和兄弟姐妹在决定寿命方面共同拥有的当地风险因素越来越重要,这一解释也与我们的其他发现一致,这些发现表明,婚姻的持续时间也会增加配偶的相关性。然而,在过去十年中,配偶相关性的增长超过了兄弟姐妹的增长,这表明要么是选择性交配的增加,要么是夫妻特定风险因素的相对重要性的增加。
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引用次数: 0
Comparing age-happiness relationships between Japan and Europe 比较日本和欧洲的年龄-幸福关系
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100606
Takashi Oshio , Satoshi Shimizutani
Numerous studies have examined the existence of the “well-being paradox,” according to which subjective well-being is stable or even improves in later life despite worsening health and social losses. However, no consensus has been reached regarding the factors that account for this paradox. We used repeated cross-sectional survey data from Japan and three European countries (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) over two decades to compare happiness trajectories over age and factors affecting happiness across the four countries. When we used unadjusted data, we observed U-shaped age-happiness curves in Japan and S-shaped curves in Europe. When we controlled for four intervening variables (marital status, income, job status, and health), we saw that age-related challenges in those areas generally inhibited what would otherwise be a more substantial rise in happiness in later life for the three European countries. Each intervening variable’s role differed substantially across countries and sexes. Notably, a change in job status from working to retirement decreased happiness more substantially in Europe than in Japan, and this is not the case for Japanese females.
许多研究调查了“幸福悖论”的存在,根据该悖论,尽管健康状况恶化和社会损失,但主观幸福感在晚年仍然稳定甚至改善。然而,关于造成这一矛盾的因素还没有达成共识。我们使用了日本和三个欧洲国家(法国、德国和英国)20多年来的重复横断面调查数据,来比较四个国家随年龄增长的幸福轨迹和影响幸福的因素。当我们使用未经调整的数据时,我们观察到日本的年龄幸福曲线为u形,欧洲为s形。当我们控制了四个干预变量(婚姻状况、收入、工作状况和健康)时,我们发现,在这些领域,年龄相关的挑战通常会抑制三个欧洲国家在晚年生活中幸福感的大幅上升。每个干预变量的作用在不同国家和性别之间有很大差异。值得注意的是,在欧洲,从工作到退休的工作状态变化对幸福感的影响比日本更大,但日本女性的情况并非如此。
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引用次数: 0
Japan at the forefront of the economics of aging? A bibliometric analysis 日本走在老龄化经济学的前沿?文献计量学分析
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100601
Sébastien Lechevalier , Brieuc Monfort
This paper analyzes how economists have considered the question of aging over the last fifty years. The major originality of this paper is to conduct a bibliometric analysis of the economics of aging literature, based on the textual analysis of three different and complementary corpora, while existing studies only concern subfields. It shows that the definition of the economics of aging is less straightforward than expected and introduces some identification criteria to get quantitative results on the growth of the literature, its geography, and its research agenda. One claim of the paper is that aging has emerged as a distinct topic that spans different fields, from population to labor economics, and has strong connections with health economics, macroeconomics, and public economics. Topics of interest have evolved over time with notably a major growth for health issues, while pensions issues have been at the center of the investigation for several decades. In addition, we show that the geography of the economics of aging does not correspond to the geography of aging, with Japan somewhat underrepresented in the literature. Lastly, we draw some lessons from this neglect in the dominant research agenda on the economics of aging and suggest directions for future research that would give to Japan more space in comparative studies, given its position at the forefront of aging.
本文分析了经济学家在过去50年里是如何看待老龄化问题的。本文的主要创新之处在于对老龄化文献经济学进行了文献计量学分析,基于对三种不同且互补的语料库的文本分析,而现有的研究只涉及子领域。它表明老龄化经济学的定义不如预期的简单,并引入了一些识别标准,以获得关于文献增长,地理和研究议程的定量结果。该论文的一个主张是,老龄化已经成为一个跨越不同领域的独特主题,从人口到劳动经济学,并且与健康经济学,宏观经济学和公共经济学有着密切的联系。随着时间的推移,人们感兴趣的话题也在不断演变,特别是健康问题的大幅增长,而养老金问题几十年来一直是调查的中心。此外,我们发现老龄化经济学的地理分布与老龄化的地理分布并不对应,日本在文献中的代表性不足。最后,我们从老龄化经济学的主流研究议程中吸取了一些教训,并提出了未来研究的方向,考虑到日本在老龄化研究中的前沿地位,日本将在比较研究中获得更多的空间。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of macroeconomic conditions on long-term care: Evidence on prices 宏观经济条件对长期护理的影响:价格证据
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100600
Johannes Geyer , Peter Haan , Mia Teschner
The price of institutional long-term care is a key determinant of the demand for both formal and informal long-term care. In this paper, we examine how the regional unemployment rate as a proxy for macroeconomic conditions influences these prices. Our analysis draws on administrative data that provide detailed information on all nursing homes and ambulatory care services, as well as all recipients of long-term care benefits in Germany. For identification, we exploit variation in macroeconomic conditions—measured by district-level unemployment rates over time—using a panel data approach with facility and time fixed effects.
Our empirical findings indicate that higher unemployment rates lead to increased prices for permanent long-term care, including accommodation and meal costs in nursing homes. We provide evidence for the mechanisms underlying these price effects. While we find no significant impact of macroeconomic conditions on employment, working hours, or quality of care in nursing homes, our results suggest that higher unemployment rates raise nursing home prices through changes in the composition of patients. Specifically, economic downturns trigger a shift from recipients with lower levels of impairment to those requiring more labor-intensive care. Additionally, we observe a substitution effect, whereby low-impairment patients increasingly opt for ambulatory and informal home care instead of institutional care.
机构长期护理的价格是正式和非正式长期护理需求的关键决定因素。在本文中,我们研究了地区失业率作为宏观经济条件的代理如何影响这些价格。我们的分析借鉴了行政数据,这些数据提供了德国所有养老院和门诊护理服务以及所有长期护理福利接受者的详细信息。为了识别,我们利用宏观经济条件的变化——通过地区失业率随时间的变化来衡量——使用具有设施和时间固定效应的面板数据方法。我们的实证研究结果表明,较高的失业率导致永久性长期护理的价格上涨,包括养老院的住宿和膳食成本。我们为这些价格效应背后的机制提供了证据。虽然我们发现宏观经济条件对养老院的就业、工作时间或护理质量没有显著影响,但我们的研究结果表明,高失业率通过改变患者的构成来提高养老院的价格。具体来说,经济衰退引发了从受损程度较低的受助人向需要更多劳动密集型护理的受助人的转变。此外,我们观察到替代效应,即低损伤患者越来越多地选择门诊和非正式的家庭护理,而不是机构护理。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic and fiscal implications of changes in the labor share under population aging in Japan 日本人口老龄化背景下劳动收入占比变化的宏观经济和财政影响
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100608
Tomoaki Yamada
This study examines how declining labor share affects macroeconomic outcomes and fiscal sustainability in Japan—the country with the most advanced population aging globally. While previous research has documented the global trend of declining labor share, its implications for fiscal policy in aging societies remain underexplored. Using a life-cycle general equilibrium model in the Auerbach–Kotlikoff tradition, we calibrate parameters to match Japan’s economic and demographic characteristics, incorporating country-specific institutions such as public pension, health insurance, and long-term care systems. Our analysis reveals that when capital share increases by 3 percentage points between 2025–2060, it generates fiscal relief equivalent to approximately 3 percentage points in consumption tax by 2070 through enhanced capital accumulation. More significantly, this declining labor share amplifies the efficacy of pension reforms, potentially yielding savings equivalent to over 12 percentage points in consumption tax. Our findings suggest that declining labor share, when coupled with appropriate policy reforms, may benefit fiscal sustainability in rapidly aging societies with high public debt.
本研究考察了劳动收入占比下降如何影响日本的宏观经济结果和财政可持续性,日本是全球人口老龄化最严重的国家。虽然之前的研究已经记录了劳动收入占比下降的全球趋势,但其对老龄化社会财政政策的影响仍未得到充分探讨。使用Auerbach-Kotlikoff传统的生命周期一般均衡模型,我们校准参数以匹配日本的经济和人口特征,并结合国家特定的制度,如公共养老金、医疗保险和长期护理系统。我们的分析显示,在2025年至2060年期间,当资本份额增加3个百分点时,通过加强资本积累,到2070年,它产生的财政减免相当于大约3个百分点的消费税。更重要的是,劳动收入占比的下降放大了养老金改革的效果,可能会产生相当于消费税削减逾12个百分点的储蓄。我们的研究结果表明,劳动收入占比的下降,加上适当的政策改革,可能有利于公共债务高的快速老龄化社会的财政可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
Introduction to this Special Issue: The Economics of Ageing 本期特刊简介:老龄化经济学
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100579
David E. Bloom , Andrew J. Scott
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引用次数: 0
How do women respond to increased care needs of their parents? The economic costs of informal caregiving 女性如何应对父母日益增加的照顾需求?非正式照料的经济成本
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100589
Jacek Barszczewski , Ricarda Milstein , Jinkook Lee , Ana Llena-Nozal
When a person becomes care-dependent, family members often provide informal care. This paper examines the economic impact of informal caregiving, with a particular focus on women who care for their ageing parents. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), covering 24 countries, we estimate the effect of caregiving on labour supply and quantify its associated costs in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Our findings confirm that women typically respond to worsening parental health by increasing their provision of informal care. Women with parents in poor health have a 5% to 13% higher probability of providing informal care, depending on the region of Europe. Furthermore, our results show that women who take on caregiving responsibilities experience significant reductions in labour supply, especially in Southern, Western, and Central/Eastern European countries, with reductions ranging from 30% to 70%. We also show that the economic cost of these reductions in labour supply is considerable, with a GDP reduction ranging from 0.37% in Western Europe to approximately 0.45% in Southern and Central/Eastern Europe. These results highlight the significant economic consequences of informal caregiving and stress the need for policy measures that support reconciling caregiving with labour market participation. Expanding formal long-term care systems, providing caregiver support, and investing in healthy ageing policies could help address these economic pressures.
当一个人变得依赖照顾时,家庭成员通常会提供非正式的照顾。本文研究了非正式照顾的经济影响,特别关注照顾年迈父母的妇女。利用欧洲健康、老龄化和退休调查(SHARE)涵盖24个国家的数据,我们估计了护理对劳动力供应的影响,并按国内生产总值(GDP)量化了其相关成本。我们的研究结果证实,妇女通常通过增加提供非正式护理来应对父母健康状况的恶化。父母健康状况不佳的妇女提供非正式护理的可能性要高5%至13%,具体情况视欧洲区域而定。此外,我们的研究结果表明,承担照顾责任的妇女的劳动力供应显著减少,特别是在南欧、西欧和中欧/东欧国家,减少幅度从30%到70%不等。我们还表明,这些劳动力供应减少的经济成本是相当大的,其GDP减少幅度从西欧的0.37%到南欧和中欧/东欧的约0.45%。这些结果突出了非正式照料的重大经济后果,并强调需要采取政策措施,支持协调照料与劳动力市场参与。扩大正式的长期护理系统,为护理人员提供支持,并投资于健康老龄化政策,可以帮助解决这些经济压力。
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引用次数: 0
Trend in length-of-stay in nursing homes: Evidence from the Netherlands 在疗养院停留时间的趋势:来自荷兰的证据
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100596
Peter Alders , Bram Wouterse , Frederik T. Schut
For an accurate prediction of the future demand of nursing home care, adequate insight in the trend in length-of-stay (LOS) in nursing homes is required. Almost no research has been done on the trend in LOS and its determinants. We used individual data on nursing home use for the entire Dutch population combined with information on age, gender, cohabitation, care needs, and date of death. Our final sample consisted of 433,377 individual nursing home admissions over the period 2012 through 2022 in the Netherlands. Although the average age at admission was relatively stable, the age distribution got more dispersed over time, because of a simultaneous increase in the share of relatively young older adults in the older population due to the post-war babyboom and the postponement of nursing home admissions to higher ages at the individual level. Furthermore, relatively more men and older adults with higher care needs were admitted to a nursing home. We performed a survival analysis to calculate the expected LOS. We decomposed the trend in LOS into three partial effects: a demographic effect, an effect due to changes in care needs, and a residual time trend. We found that over a period of 11 years, the LOS decreased with 8 %, from 930 days in 2012 to 853 days in 2022. This downward trend is explained by a combination of population ageing (27 %), an influx of older adults with higher care needs (40 %), and other factors captured by the time trend (32 %).
为了准确预测养老院护理的未来需求,需要充分了解养老院住院时间(LOS)的趋势。几乎没有研究LOS的趋势及其决定因素。我们使用了整个荷兰人口使用养老院的个人数据,并结合了年龄、性别、同居、护理需求和死亡日期等信息。我们的最终样本包括荷兰2012年至2022年期间入院的433,377名个人养老院。虽然入院的平均年龄相对稳定,但随着时间的推移,年龄分布变得更加分散,因为战后婴儿潮导致相对年轻的老年人在老年人口中所占的比例同时增加,而且在个人层面上,养老院入院的年龄推迟到更高的年龄。此外,相对而言,更多的男性和老年人有更高的护理需求被送入养老院。我们进行了生存分析来计算预期的LOS。我们将LOS的趋势分解为三个部分效应:人口统计学效应、护理需求变化的效应和剩余时间趋势。我们发现,在11年的时间里,LOS减少了8%,从2012年的930天减少到2022年的853天。造成这种下降趋势的原因是人口老龄化(27%)、有更高护理需求的老年人的涌入(40%)以及时间趋势所反映的其他因素(32%)。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating demographic challenges: The impact of increasing social contribution rates on tax revenue and distribution 应对人口挑战:提高社会贡献率对税收收入和税收分配的影响
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100593
Philipp Toussaint, Sebastian Schultis, Stefan Seuffert
The demographic transition poses significant fiscal challenges to pay-as-you-go social security systems, particularly in ageing societies like Germany. While extensive research has analyzed the direct effects of demographic change on rising contribution rates, the secondary effects of the income tax system that arise from the deductibility of contributions have received little attention. This study addresses this gap by examining how the tax treatment of social security contributions influences distribution of the demographic burden. Based on detailed microdata from the German Income and Expenditure Survey (EVS) and official income tax statistics, we apply a generational accounting framework to analyze intergenerational redistribution effects. As a secondary finding, we also identify intragenerational redistribution resulting from the tax deductibility of proportional social security contributions under a progressive income tax schedule. Our findings reveal that future generations are disproportionately affected by declining income tax revenues, while current generations benefit from an average tax relief of 47 percent. Moreover, a regressive burden distribution is indicated: individuals in the lowest income quintile face an effective burden of 91 percent, as compared to 62 percent in the top quintile. These results underscore the importance of accounting for indirect tax effects when evaluating the long-term sustainability and equity of social insurance reforms.
人口结构的转变给现收现付的社会保障体系带来了重大的财政挑战,尤其是在德国这样的老龄化社会。虽然广泛的研究分析了人口变化对缴款率上升的直接影响,但由于缴款可扣除而产生的所得税制度的次要影响却很少受到注意。本研究通过考察社会保障缴款的税收待遇如何影响人口负担的分配来解决这一差距。基于德国收入和支出调查(EVS)和官方所得税统计的详细微观数据,我们应用代际会计框架来分析代际再分配效应。作为第二个发现,我们还确定了代际再分配,这是由累进所得税计划下按比例缴纳的社会保障缴款的税收抵扣造成的。我们的研究结果表明,未来几代人受到所得税收入下降的影响不成比例,而当代人则受益于平均47%的税收减免。此外,还指出了一种递减的负担分布:最低收入五分之一的个人面临91%的有效负担,而最高收入五分之一的个人则为62%。这些结果强调了在评估社会保险改革的长期可持续性和公平性时考虑间接税影响的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Lifecycle analysis of the gender gap in paid and unpaid work by household structure 按家庭结构对有偿和无偿工作的性别差距进行生命周期分析
IF 2 3区 经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100597
Gemma Abio , Ció Patxot , Elisenda Rentería , Guadalupe Souto , Tanja Istenič
The paper provides new insights into men and women’s lifetime contributions to the overall economy and societal well-being, taking both market and non-market activities into account. It extends the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) and National Time Transfer Accounts (NTTA) methodologies by including household structure – specifically, partnership and parenthood status – in the analysis. Using Spain as a case study, the results reveal the need to consider family characteristics to fully understand gendered patterns of economic production. Three synthetic indicators are defined that permit new insights concerning the well-documented gender gap. Interestingly, this gap is already present in singles (single women spend more time doing housework), reinforced in childless couples (by the division of labour) and most apparent when children are present. Visible in the indicator of family generosity, the latter dimension also shows the existence of a sizeable ‘parenthood gap’. Addressing both gaps is particularly urgent in the context of accelerated population ageing given the potential implications it holds for fertility, care provision, and intergenerational support.
这篇论文对男性和女性对整体经济和社会福祉的终身贡献提供了新的见解,同时考虑了市场和非市场活动。它扩展了国家转移帐户和国家时间转移帐户方法,将家庭结构- -特别是伙伴关系和父母身份- -纳入分析。以西班牙为例,研究结果表明,需要考虑家庭特征,以充分了解经济生产的性别模式。定义了三个综合指标,使人们能够对有据可查的性别差距有新的认识。有趣的是,这种差距在单身女性(单身女性花更多的时间做家务)中已经存在,在没有孩子的夫妇(由于劳动分工)中得到强化,在有孩子的情况下最为明显。在家庭慷慨度指标中可以看到,后一个维度也显示了一个相当大的“父母差距”的存在。在人口加速老龄化的背景下,解决这两个差距尤为紧迫,因为它对生育、护理提供和代际支持具有潜在影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of the Economics of Ageing
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