Journal of the Economics of Ageing最新文献

英文中文

Trend in length-of-stay in nursing homes: Evidence from the Netherlands 在疗养院停留时间的趋势：来自荷兰的证据

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100596

Peter Alders , Bram Wouterse , Frederik T. Schut

For an accurate prediction of the future demand of nursing home care, adequate insight in the trend in length-of-stay (LOS) in nursing homes is required. Almost no research has been done on the trend in LOS and its determinants. We used individual data on nursing home use for the entire Dutch population combined with information on age, gender, cohabitation, care needs, and date of death. Our final sample consisted of 433,377 individual nursing home admissions over the period 2012 through 2022 in the Netherlands. Although the average age at admission was relatively stable, the age distribution got more dispersed over time, because of a simultaneous increase in the share of relatively young older adults in the older population due to the post-war babyboom and the postponement of nursing home admissions to higher ages at the individual level. Furthermore, relatively more men and older adults with higher care needs were admitted to a nursing home. We performed a survival analysis to calculate the expected LOS. We decomposed the trend in LOS into three partial effects: a demographic effect, an effect due to changes in care needs, and a residual time trend. We found that over a period of 11 years, the LOS decreased with 8 %, from 930 days in 2012 to 853 days in 2022. This downward trend is explained by a combination of population ageing (27 %), an influx of older adults with higher care needs (40 %), and other factors captured by the time trend (32 %).

为了准确预测养老院护理的未来需求，需要充分了解养老院住院时间（LOS）的趋势。几乎没有研究LOS的趋势及其决定因素。我们使用了整个荷兰人口使用养老院的个人数据，并结合了年龄、性别、同居、护理需求和死亡日期等信息。我们的最终样本包括荷兰2012年至2022年期间入院的433,377名个人养老院。虽然入院的平均年龄相对稳定，但随着时间的推移，年龄分布变得更加分散，因为战后婴儿潮导致相对年轻的老年人在老年人口中所占的比例同时增加，而且在个人层面上，养老院入院的年龄推迟到更高的年龄。此外，相对而言，更多的男性和老年人有更高的护理需求被送入养老院。我们进行了生存分析来计算预期的LOS。我们将LOS的趋势分解为三个部分效应：人口统计学效应、护理需求变化的效应和剩余时间趋势。我们发现，在11年的时间里，LOS减少了8%，从2012年的930天减少到2022年的853天。造成这种下降趋势的原因是人口老龄化（27%）、有更高护理需求的老年人的涌入（40%）以及时间趋势所反映的其他因素（32%）。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of the increase in social security’s full retirement age on unemployment among older adults 提高社会保障的完全退休年龄对老年人失业的影响

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100594

Halim Yoon

Social Security began to gradually raised the Full Retirement Age (FRA) from 65 to 67 in 2000. While previous research has shown that this reform increased employment and labor supply among older adults, its impact on unemployment among older workers is limited. As employment rises among older individuals, there is an increased risk of facing periods of unemployment at older ages. In addition, people may experience longer unemployment spells if they choose to stay unemployed strategically in order to collect Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits and delay claiming Social Security. This study uses data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) to examine the effect of raising the FRA on unemployment among older men born between 1932 and 1940. The findings indicate a slight increase in unemployment among cohorts with higher FRAs. However, this increase does not translate into longer unemployment spells. Instead, unemployed individuals aged 62 to 65 in the treated cohorts are more likely to move from unemployment to employment, rather than remaining unemployed or retiring. Moreover, there is no strong evidence of strategic use of UI. The results suggest that individuals subject to greater penalties for early Social Security claiming experience higher unemployment as they stay longer in the labor market, rather than through any strategic effort to collect UI benefits.

2000年，社会保障开始逐步将完全退休年龄（FRA）从65岁提高到67岁。虽然先前的研究表明，这项改革增加了老年人的就业和劳动力供应，但它对老年工人失业的影响有限。随着老年人就业率的上升，老年人面临失业时期的风险也在增加。此外，如果人们选择策略性地保持失业状态，以领取失业保险（UI）福利，并推迟申领社会保障，他们可能会经历更长的失业期。这项研究使用了当前人口调查（CPS）的数据来检验提高联邦存款准备金率对1932年至1940年间出生的老年男性失业率的影响。研究结果表明，在fra较高的人群中，失业率略有上升。然而，这种增长并没有转化为更长的失业期。相反，在接受治疗的人群中，62岁至65岁的失业人员更有可能从失业转向就业，而不是继续失业或退休。此外，也没有强有力的证据表明用户界面是战略性使用的。结果表明，由于提前申请社会保障而受到更大惩罚的个人，在劳动力市场停留的时间越长，失业率就越高，而不是通过任何战略努力来领取失业救济金。

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引用次数: 0

Decomposing longevity: How life expectancy changes around the world 分解寿命：世界各地的预期寿命如何变化

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100587

Martin G. Haas, Uwe Sunde

In economics, most empirical studies of the consequences of changes in longevity focus on life expectancy, without considering other moments of the survival probability distribution. Here, we apply a novel parsimonious parametric and easily implementable decomposition method of variation in longevity based on life table information. We document several empirical facts of longevity changes around the world and their associations with aggregate population dynamics and economic development, and demonstrate that a parametric decomposition of changes in longevity beyond life expectancy can be very useful for various applications.

在经济学中，大多数关于寿命变化后果的实证研究都集中在预期寿命上，而没有考虑生存概率分布的其他时刻。本文提出了一种新的基于生命表信息的寿命变化分解方法，该方法参数简洁，易于实现。我们记录了世界各地寿命变化的几个经验事实及其与总人口动态和经济发展的联系，并证明了超出预期寿命的寿命变化的参数分解对各种应用都非常有用。

引用次数: 0

The macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom 英国慢性病的宏观经济影响

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100590

Yannick Schindler , Andrew J. Scott

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom (UK). We use individual-level data to estimate how diagnoses of six major diseases affect labor market transitions and combine these with a tractable growth model with age-specific productivity and labor force participation to quantify the impact of chronic disease on UK economic growth. Using a novel machine learning approach to classify National Health Service (NHS) cost data, we also provide new estimates of disease-specific treatment costs. Our findings indicate that a 20% reduction in disease incidence would increase annual GDP by 0.99% after five years and 1.51% after ten years. Most of the gains are due to increased participation in the labor force, especially among workers aged 50 to 65 years. Reductions in mental health conditions and musculoskeletal conditions contribute the most to these effects. Our analysis points to three important features of preventative health policies: (1) the potential welfare gains are substantial and manifest themselves in terms of both improved population health and increased output growth, (2) only around 40% of long-term effects appear after five years, and (3) the 50–65 age group experiences the largest labor force participation gains. This last feature is due to two factors: improved health at those ages prevents transitions into health-related inactivity and a larger share of workers reaches this age band as a result of reduced transitions into inactivity at earlier ages. This compounding effect underscores the importance of targeting prevention efforts at earlier ages.

本文考察了英国（UK）慢性病的宏观经济影响。我们使用个人层面的数据来估计六种主要疾病的诊断如何影响劳动力市场转型，并将这些数据与具有特定年龄生产率和劳动力参与率的可处理增长模型相结合，以量化慢性病对英国经济增长的影响。使用一种新的机器学习方法对国民健康服务（NHS）成本数据进行分类，我们还提供了对特定疾病治疗成本的新估计。我们的研究结果表明，疾病发病率降低20%，5年后将使GDP年增长0.99%，10年后将使GDP年增长1.51%。大部分增长是由于劳动力参与率的提高，尤其是50至65岁的工人。精神健康状况和肌肉骨骼状况的减少对这些影响贡献最大。我们的分析指出了预防性健康政策的三个重要特征：(1)潜在的福利收益是巨大的，并且在改善人口健康和增加产出增长方面表现出来；(2)五年后只有大约40%的长期效果出现；(3)50-65岁年龄组的劳动力参与率增幅最大。最后一个特点是由于两个因素造成的：这些年龄阶段的健康状况改善，防止过渡到与健康有关的不活动状态；由于较早年龄阶段过渡到不活动状态的人数减少，达到这一年龄阶段的工人比例增加。这种复合效应强调了在早期阶段针对预防工作的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating demographic challenges: The impact of increasing social contribution rates on tax revenue and distribution 应对人口挑战：提高社会贡献率对税收收入和税收分配的影响

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100593

Philipp Toussaint, Sebastian Schultis, Stefan Seuffert

The demographic transition poses significant fiscal challenges to pay-as-you-go social security systems, particularly in ageing societies like Germany. While extensive research has analyzed the direct effects of demographic change on rising contribution rates, the secondary effects of the income tax system that arise from the deductibility of contributions have received little attention. This study addresses this gap by examining how the tax treatment of social security contributions influences distribution of the demographic burden. Based on detailed microdata from the German Income and Expenditure Survey (EVS) and official income tax statistics, we apply a generational accounting framework to analyze intergenerational redistribution effects. As a secondary finding, we also identify intragenerational redistribution resulting from the tax deductibility of proportional social security contributions under a progressive income tax schedule. Our findings reveal that future generations are disproportionately affected by declining income tax revenues, while current generations benefit from an average tax relief of 47 percent. Moreover, a regressive burden distribution is indicated: individuals in the lowest income quintile face an effective burden of 91 percent, as compared to 62 percent in the top quintile. These results underscore the importance of accounting for indirect tax effects when evaluating the long-term sustainability and equity of social insurance reforms.

人口结构的转变给现收现付的社会保障体系带来了重大的财政挑战，尤其是在德国这样的老龄化社会。虽然广泛的研究分析了人口变化对缴款率上升的直接影响，但由于缴款可扣除而产生的所得税制度的次要影响却很少受到注意。本研究通过考察社会保障缴款的税收待遇如何影响人口负担的分配来解决这一差距。基于德国收入和支出调查（EVS）和官方所得税统计的详细微观数据，我们应用代际会计框架来分析代际再分配效应。作为第二个发现，我们还确定了代际再分配，这是由累进所得税计划下按比例缴纳的社会保障缴款的税收抵扣造成的。我们的研究结果表明，未来几代人受到所得税收入下降的影响不成比例，而当代人则受益于平均47%的税收减免。此外，还指出了一种递减的负担分布：最低收入五分之一的个人面临91%的有效负担，而最高收入五分之一的个人则为62%。这些结果强调了在评估社会保险改革的长期可持续性和公平性时考虑间接税影响的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Demographic change, firm costs, and digital transformation 人口变化、企业成本和数字化转型

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100592

Gang Qiao , Ruipeng Tan

We investigate the impact of aging on enterprise digital transformation in China. We find that aging significantly inhibits the digitalization level of enterprises. Mechanism analysis shows that aging is unfavorable to the digital transformation of enterprises by raising their labor costs, such as reducing the skilled labor supply, increasing wages and the relative prices of skills, and raising job training expenditure. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative impact of aging is more significant for firms facing stronger financing constraints, non-SOE firms, smaller scale firms, labor-intensive firms, and in the manufacturing and high-tech industries.

我们研究了老龄化对中国企业数字化转型的影响。我们发现，老龄化显著抑制了企业的数字化水平。机制分析表明，老龄化通过提高企业的劳动力成本，如减少熟练劳动力供给、提高工资和技能相对价格、增加岗位培训支出等，不利于企业的数字化转型。异质性分析表明，老龄化对融资约束较强的企业、非国有企业、规模较小的企业、劳动密集型企业以及制造业和高新技术产业的负面影响更为显著。

引用次数: 0

Long-run patterns in the spousal correlation of lifespan 配偶寿命相关性的长期模式

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100588

Jacob Hutchings , Adriana Lleras-Muney , Joshua Nicholls , Joseph Price , Sven E Wilson

Abundant research has demonstrated that substantial spousal concordance in health exists across multiple measures and populations and that the magnitude of this association is similar to spousal correlations in education and socioeconomic status. This strong spousal concordance in health results from both sorting in the marriage market and from behavioral and environmental risk factors shared by the couple. In this paper we test the hypothesis that the spousal correlation in lifespan–a summary measure of health–is similarly concordant. We create a new data set to investigate this hypothesis. We link about 15 million couples drawn from the US censuses of 1880–1940 to genealogical data available in family trees to obtain lifespan information for spouses. We document spousal correlations across time and compare spousal correlations in lifespan to opposite-gender sibling correlations in lifespan using a sample of 26 million opposite-gender sibling pairs. Surprisingly, and in contrast to what other health measures show, we find that the spousal lifespan correlation (0.063) is relatively small, though only a little smaller than the sibling correlation (0.076), which captures both genetic and early life environmental risk factors. However, we also find that the spousal correlation roughly doubles in size across cohorts (from around 0.05 for the 1880 birth cohort to 0.10 for the 1920 birth cohort). The fact that the spousal and sibling correlation track each other closely across cohorts suggests a growing importance of local risk factors that are shared by both spouses and siblings in determining lifespan, an interpretation that is also consistent with our other findings which suggest that the duration of marriage also increases spousal correlations. For the last decade, however, the growth in spousal correlation outpaces that of siblings, suggesting either increased assortative mating or an increase in the relative importance of couple-specific risk factors.

大量的研究表明，配偶在健康方面的一致性存在于多种测量和人群中，这种相关性的程度与配偶在教育和社会经济地位方面的相关性相似。配偶在健康方面的这种强烈一致性源于婚姻市场的分类以及夫妻共同的行为和环境风险因素。在这篇论文中，我们检验了一个假设，即配偶与寿命的相关性——一种健康的综合衡量标准——同样是一致的。我们创建了一个新的数据集来调查这个假设。我们将从1880-1940年美国人口普查中抽取的约1500万对夫妇与家谱中可用的家谱数据联系起来，以获得配偶的寿命信息。我们记录了配偶在不同时期的相关性，并使用2600万对异性兄弟姐妹的样本，将配偶在寿命上的相关性与异性兄弟姐妹在寿命上的相关性进行了比较。令人惊讶的是，与其他健康测量结果相比，我们发现配偶寿命的相关性（0.063）相对较小，尽管只比兄弟姐妹的相关性（0.076）小一点，兄弟姐妹的相关性涵盖了遗传和早期生活环境的风险因素。然而，我们也发现，配偶相关性在队列中大约翻了一番（从1880年出生队列的0.05左右到1920年出生队列的0.10）。配偶和兄弟姐妹之间的相关性在整个队列中密切跟踪，这一事实表明，配偶和兄弟姐妹在决定寿命方面共同拥有的当地风险因素越来越重要，这一解释也与我们的其他发现一致，这些发现表明，婚姻的持续时间也会增加配偶的相关性。然而，在过去十年中，配偶相关性的增长超过了兄弟姐妹的增长，这表明要么是选择性交配的增加，要么是夫妻特定风险因素的相对重要性的增加。

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引用次数: 0

When wealth hurts: Inheritances and the health of older Europeans 财富伤害：遗产和欧洲老年人的健康

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100591

Ignacio Belloc , José Alberto Molina , Jorge Velilla

We study the impact of inheritances on physical and mental health outcomes, using a longitudinal, cross-country dataset covering 16 European countries over 2004–2017. The results show that the receipt of an inheritance is negatively associated with BMI and being obese among women. We also find evidence of an increase in the probability of experiencing depressive symptoms among women following an inheritance. When we account for individual heterogeneity, we find that the receipt of an inheritance increases the probability of being depressed by 2.3 percentage points among women. This finding is driven by unexpected inheritances and female heirs who are less educated, unmarried, unemployed, and living in Southern European countries. In addition, the receipt of an inheritance increases the probability of women engaging in vigorous and moderate physical activities by 2.6 and 2 percentage points, respectively.

我们研究了遗传对身心健康结果的影响，使用了2004-2017年覆盖16个欧洲国家的纵向跨国数据集。研究结果表明，在女性中，遗传与BMI和肥胖呈负相关。我们还发现有证据表明，女性在遗传后出现抑郁症状的可能性增加。当我们考虑到个体的异质性时，我们发现，在女性中，继承遗产会使抑郁的可能性增加2.3个百分点。这一发现是由意外继承和女性继承人推动的，这些继承人受教育程度较低，未婚，失业，生活在南欧国家。此外，继承遗产会使女性参加剧烈和适度体育活动的可能性分别增加2.6和2个百分点。

引用次数: 0

Introduction to this Special Issue: The Economics of Ageing 本期特刊简介：老龄化经济学

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100579

David E. Bloom , Andrew J. Scott

引用次数: 0

Exclusion from a ‘mandatory’ pension scheme: Late-stage dropouts from the National Pension System in South Korea 被排除在“强制性”养老金计划之外：韩国国家养老金制度的晚期退出者

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100578

Jongseok Oh , Seho Son , Kun Lee

In this study, we investigate an underexplored mechanism through which a mandatory pension scheme effectively excludes low-status older adults. We examine the patterns of individuals dropping out from the National Pension System just before the eligibility age, the largest public pension scheme in South Korea. We analyze administrative pension insurance data on individuals eligible for a lump-sum refund of lifetime contributions at age 60 due to insufficient contribution records – a negatively selected subpopulation. We employ a set of linear probability models with several fixed-effect specifications to investigate individual- and regional-level determinants of late-stage dropout. Results reveal a unique U-shaped relationship between the size of accrued contributions and the probability of dropping out, suggesting that immediate budget constraints could be the primary reason for dropouts among low-status workers. We also find that individuals with unstable labor market histories are more inclined to choose the refund option, while a regional economic decline is associated with an increase in withdrawals. We call for alternative policy approaches to protect the financially vulnerable and provide implications for other pension latecomer countries.

在本研究中，我们研究了一个未被充分探索的机制，通过该机制，强制性养老金计划有效地排除了低地位的老年人。我们研究了在韩国最大的公共养老金计划——国家养老金制度（National Pension System）合格年龄之前退出的个人模式。我们分析了行政养老保险数据的个人有资格在60岁的一次性退还终身缴款，由于缴款记录不足-负选择亚人群。我们采用一组线性概率模型与几个固定效应规范来调查个人和地区层面的决定因素后期辍学。结果显示，累计缴费规模与退出概率之间存在独特的u型关系，这表明直接的预算限制可能是低地位工人退出的主要原因。我们还发现，劳动力市场历史不稳定的个人更倾向于选择退款选项，而区域经济衰退与取款增加有关。我们呼吁采取其他政策办法来保护经济上脆弱的国家，并为其他养老金后发国家提供启示。

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