Journal of the Economics of Ageing最新文献

英文中文

Navigating demographic challenges: The impact of increasing social contribution rates on tax revenue and distribution 应对人口挑战：提高社会贡献率对税收收入和税收分配的影响

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100593

Philipp Toussaint, Sebastian Schultis, Stefan Seuffert

The demographic transition poses significant fiscal challenges to pay-as-you-go social security systems, particularly in ageing societies like Germany. While extensive research has analyzed the direct effects of demographic change on rising contribution rates, the secondary effects of the income tax system that arise from the deductibility of contributions have received little attention. This study addresses this gap by examining how the tax treatment of social security contributions influences distribution of the demographic burden. Based on detailed microdata from the German Income and Expenditure Survey (EVS) and official income tax statistics, we apply a generational accounting framework to analyze intergenerational redistribution effects. As a secondary finding, we also identify intragenerational redistribution resulting from the tax deductibility of proportional social security contributions under a progressive income tax schedule. Our findings reveal that future generations are disproportionately affected by declining income tax revenues, while current generations benefit from an average tax relief of 47 percent. Moreover, a regressive burden distribution is indicated: individuals in the lowest income quintile face an effective burden of 91 percent, as compared to 62 percent in the top quintile. These results underscore the importance of accounting for indirect tax effects when evaluating the long-term sustainability and equity of social insurance reforms.

人口结构的转变给现收现付的社会保障体系带来了重大的财政挑战，尤其是在德国这样的老龄化社会。虽然广泛的研究分析了人口变化对缴款率上升的直接影响，但由于缴款可扣除而产生的所得税制度的次要影响却很少受到注意。本研究通过考察社会保障缴款的税收待遇如何影响人口负担的分配来解决这一差距。基于德国收入和支出调查（EVS）和官方所得税统计的详细微观数据，我们应用代际会计框架来分析代际再分配效应。作为第二个发现，我们还确定了代际再分配，这是由累进所得税计划下按比例缴纳的社会保障缴款的税收抵扣造成的。我们的研究结果表明，未来几代人受到所得税收入下降的影响不成比例，而当代人则受益于平均47%的税收减免。此外，还指出了一种递减的负担分布：最低收入五分之一的个人面临91%的有效负担，而最高收入五分之一的个人则为62%。这些结果强调了在评估社会保险改革的长期可持续性和公平性时考虑间接税影响的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Demographic change, firm costs, and digital transformation 人口变化、企业成本和数字化转型

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100592

Gang Qiao , Ruipeng Tan

We investigate the impact of aging on enterprise digital transformation in China. We find that aging significantly inhibits the digitalization level of enterprises. Mechanism analysis shows that aging is unfavorable to the digital transformation of enterprises by raising their labor costs, such as reducing the skilled labor supply, increasing wages and the relative prices of skills, and raising job training expenditure. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative impact of aging is more significant for firms facing stronger financing constraints, non-SOE firms, smaller scale firms, labor-intensive firms, and in the manufacturing and high-tech industries.

我们研究了老龄化对中国企业数字化转型的影响。我们发现，老龄化显著抑制了企业的数字化水平。机制分析表明，老龄化通过提高企业的劳动力成本，如减少熟练劳动力供给、提高工资和技能相对价格、增加岗位培训支出等，不利于企业的数字化转型。异质性分析表明，老龄化对融资约束较强的企业、非国有企业、规模较小的企业、劳动密集型企业以及制造业和高新技术产业的负面影响更为显著。

引用次数: 0

Long-run patterns in the spousal correlation of lifespan 配偶寿命相关性的长期模式

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100588

Jacob Hutchings , Adriana Lleras-Muney , Joshua Nicholls , Joseph Price , Sven E Wilson

Abundant research has demonstrated that substantial spousal concordance in health exists across multiple measures and populations and that the magnitude of this association is similar to spousal correlations in education and socioeconomic status. This strong spousal concordance in health results from both sorting in the marriage market and from behavioral and environmental risk factors shared by the couple. In this paper we test the hypothesis that the spousal correlation in lifespan–a summary measure of health–is similarly concordant. We create a new data set to investigate this hypothesis. We link about 15 million couples drawn from the US censuses of 1880–1940 to genealogical data available in family trees to obtain lifespan information for spouses. We document spousal correlations across time and compare spousal correlations in lifespan to opposite-gender sibling correlations in lifespan using a sample of 26 million opposite-gender sibling pairs. Surprisingly, and in contrast to what other health measures show, we find that the spousal lifespan correlation (0.063) is relatively small, though only a little smaller than the sibling correlation (0.076), which captures both genetic and early life environmental risk factors. However, we also find that the spousal correlation roughly doubles in size across cohorts (from around 0.05 for the 1880 birth cohort to 0.10 for the 1920 birth cohort). The fact that the spousal and sibling correlation track each other closely across cohorts suggests a growing importance of local risk factors that are shared by both spouses and siblings in determining lifespan, an interpretation that is also consistent with our other findings which suggest that the duration of marriage also increases spousal correlations. For the last decade, however, the growth in spousal correlation outpaces that of siblings, suggesting either increased assortative mating or an increase in the relative importance of couple-specific risk factors.

大量的研究表明，配偶在健康方面的一致性存在于多种测量和人群中，这种相关性的程度与配偶在教育和社会经济地位方面的相关性相似。配偶在健康方面的这种强烈一致性源于婚姻市场的分类以及夫妻共同的行为和环境风险因素。在这篇论文中，我们检验了一个假设，即配偶与寿命的相关性——一种健康的综合衡量标准——同样是一致的。我们创建了一个新的数据集来调查这个假设。我们将从1880-1940年美国人口普查中抽取的约1500万对夫妇与家谱中可用的家谱数据联系起来，以获得配偶的寿命信息。我们记录了配偶在不同时期的相关性，并使用2600万对异性兄弟姐妹的样本，将配偶在寿命上的相关性与异性兄弟姐妹在寿命上的相关性进行了比较。令人惊讶的是，与其他健康测量结果相比，我们发现配偶寿命的相关性（0.063）相对较小，尽管只比兄弟姐妹的相关性（0.076）小一点，兄弟姐妹的相关性涵盖了遗传和早期生活环境的风险因素。然而，我们也发现，配偶相关性在队列中大约翻了一番（从1880年出生队列的0.05左右到1920年出生队列的0.10）。配偶和兄弟姐妹之间的相关性在整个队列中密切跟踪，这一事实表明，配偶和兄弟姐妹在决定寿命方面共同拥有的当地风险因素越来越重要，这一解释也与我们的其他发现一致，这些发现表明，婚姻的持续时间也会增加配偶的相关性。然而，在过去十年中，配偶相关性的增长超过了兄弟姐妹的增长，这表明要么是选择性交配的增加，要么是夫妻特定风险因素的相对重要性的增加。

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引用次数: 0

When wealth hurts: Inheritances and the health of older Europeans 财富伤害：遗产和欧洲老年人的健康

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100591

Ignacio Belloc , José Alberto Molina , Jorge Velilla

We study the impact of inheritances on physical and mental health outcomes, using a longitudinal, cross-country dataset covering 16 European countries over 2004–2017. The results show that the receipt of an inheritance is negatively associated with BMI and being obese among women. We also find evidence of an increase in the probability of experiencing depressive symptoms among women following an inheritance. When we account for individual heterogeneity, we find that the receipt of an inheritance increases the probability of being depressed by 2.3 percentage points among women. This finding is driven by unexpected inheritances and female heirs who are less educated, unmarried, unemployed, and living in Southern European countries. In addition, the receipt of an inheritance increases the probability of women engaging in vigorous and moderate physical activities by 2.6 and 2 percentage points, respectively.

我们研究了遗传对身心健康结果的影响，使用了2004-2017年覆盖16个欧洲国家的纵向跨国数据集。研究结果表明，在女性中，遗传与BMI和肥胖呈负相关。我们还发现有证据表明，女性在遗传后出现抑郁症状的可能性增加。当我们考虑到个体的异质性时，我们发现，在女性中，继承遗产会使抑郁的可能性增加2.3个百分点。这一发现是由意外继承和女性继承人推动的，这些继承人受教育程度较低，未婚，失业，生活在南欧国家。此外，继承遗产会使女性参加剧烈和适度体育活动的可能性分别增加2.6和2个百分点。

引用次数: 0

Introduction to this Special Issue: The Economics of Ageing 本期特刊简介：老龄化经济学

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100579

David E. Bloom , Andrew J. Scott

引用次数: 0

Exclusion from a ‘mandatory’ pension scheme: Late-stage dropouts from the National Pension System in South Korea 被排除在“强制性”养老金计划之外：韩国国家养老金制度的晚期退出者

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100578

Jongseok Oh , Seho Son , Kun Lee

In this study, we investigate an underexplored mechanism through which a mandatory pension scheme effectively excludes low-status older adults. We examine the patterns of individuals dropping out from the National Pension System just before the eligibility age, the largest public pension scheme in South Korea. We analyze administrative pension insurance data on individuals eligible for a lump-sum refund of lifetime contributions at age 60 due to insufficient contribution records – a negatively selected subpopulation. We employ a set of linear probability models with several fixed-effect specifications to investigate individual- and regional-level determinants of late-stage dropout. Results reveal a unique U-shaped relationship between the size of accrued contributions and the probability of dropping out, suggesting that immediate budget constraints could be the primary reason for dropouts among low-status workers. We also find that individuals with unstable labor market histories are more inclined to choose the refund option, while a regional economic decline is associated with an increase in withdrawals. We call for alternative policy approaches to protect the financially vulnerable and provide implications for other pension latecomer countries.

在本研究中，我们研究了一个未被充分探索的机制，通过该机制，强制性养老金计划有效地排除了低地位的老年人。我们研究了在韩国最大的公共养老金计划——国家养老金制度（National Pension System）合格年龄之前退出的个人模式。我们分析了行政养老保险数据的个人有资格在60岁的一次性退还终身缴款，由于缴款记录不足-负选择亚人群。我们采用一组线性概率模型与几个固定效应规范来调查个人和地区层面的决定因素后期辍学。结果显示，累计缴费规模与退出概率之间存在独特的u型关系，这表明直接的预算限制可能是低地位工人退出的主要原因。我们还发现，劳动力市场历史不稳定的个人更倾向于选择退款选项，而区域经济衰退与取款增加有关。我们呼吁采取其他政策办法来保护经济上脆弱的国家，并为其他养老金后发国家提供启示。

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引用次数: 0

Between Beveridge and Bismarck: Preferences for redistribution through public pensions 在贝弗里奇和俾斯麦之间：通过公共养老金进行再分配的偏好

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100570

Friedrich Breyer, Christian Breunig, Mark Kapteina, Guido Schwerdt, Maj-Britt Sterba

We examine preferences for redistribution in Germany’s public pension system as well as notions of fairness of the system, using survey and experimental data from citizens and politicians. Our findings reveal a widespread rejection of strict proportionality between contributions and benefits, with strong support for greater redistribution to low earners. Information on inequalities in life expectancy reduces perceived fairness and increases support for redistribution among voters and politically moderate legislators. The study also reveals significant knowledge gaps about the basic features of the existing pension scheme among citizens. We demonstrate that policy-relevant information influences fairness perceptions.

我们使用来自公民和政治家的调查和实验数据，研究了德国公共养老金体系中对再分配的偏好，以及该体系公平性的概念。我们的研究结果表明，人们普遍反对缴纳和福利之间严格的比例关系，并强烈支持向低收入者进行更大的再分配。关于预期寿命不平等的信息降低了人们对公平的看法，并增加了选民和政治上温和的立法者对再分配的支持。该研究还揭示了公民对现有养老金计划基本特征的重大认识差距。我们证明了政策相关信息影响公平感知。

引用次数: 0

Biological age across the globe: 1990–2019 全球生物年龄：1990-2019年

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100573

Casper Worm Hansen , Holger Strulik

In this paper, we use data of the Global Burden and Disease Study to compute biological age across the world at the country–age-group–year level and separately for men and women. Biological age is the predicted age of a person determined by their health indicators. As health indicator, we use the frailty index, which is the proportion of age-related health deficits present in a person. We demonstrate that biological age varies significantly across the globe. For instance, the average biological age of chronologically 65-year old men varies between 61 to 74 years across countries. Given chronological age, biological age increased significantly from 1990–2019, in particular in age groups above 65. We also find evidence for conditional convergence of biological age. These trends are driven primarily by biologically young people in Africa who are becoming biologically older, and by biologically old people in rich countries who are becoming biologically younger. We find little evidence of absolute convergence, i.e. declining inequality in the global distribution of biological age.

在本文中，我们使用全球负担和疾病研究的数据在国家-年龄组-年水平上计算世界各地的生物年龄，并分别为男性和女性。生物年龄是由一个人的健康指标决定的预测年龄。作为健康指标，我们使用虚弱指数，这是一个人与年龄相关的健康缺陷的比例。我们证明，生物年龄在全球范围内差异很大。例如，各国65岁男性的平均生理年龄在61岁到74岁之间。考虑到实足年龄，从1990年到2019年，生物年龄显著增加，尤其是65岁以上的年龄组。我们还发现了生物年龄条件趋同的证据。这些趋势主要是由非洲生理上年轻的人变得更老，以及富裕国家生理上年老的人变得更年轻所驱动的。我们几乎没有发现绝对趋同的证据，即生物年龄全球分布的不平等程度正在下降。

引用次数: 0

Direct and spillover effects of long-term care insurance on Chinese elderly frailty 长期护理保险对中国老年人脆弱性的直接和溢出效应

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100571

Lin Lin , Min He , Peng Nie

Frailty has become a pressing public health concern within the elderly population. However, the extent to which long-term care insurance (LTCI) coverage can alleviate frailty among elderly beneficiaries is still insufficiently explored. Utilizing data from the 2011–2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and the city-by-city rollout of the LTCI program, this study examines the impact of China’s LTCI policy on the frailty of older beneficiaries and their spouses. Our findings reveal a statistically significant reduction in frailty among older beneficiaries three to five years after LTCI implementation. Moreover, these positive effects extend to spouses, as indicated by a decreased frailty index among them. Notably, the benefits are more pronounced among beneficiaries and spouses who are male, reside in rural areas, and have lower levels of education and consumption. The reduction in frailty is primarily attributed to enhanced subjective well-being and reduced financial strain among beneficiaries, rather than increased utilization of long-term care services.

虚弱已成为老年人面临的一个紧迫的公共卫生问题。然而，长期护理保险（LTCI）覆盖范围在多大程度上可以减轻老年受益人的脆弱性仍未得到充分探讨。本研究利用2011-2018年中国健康与退休纵向研究（CHARLS）的数据和逐城推出的LTCI计划，考察了中国LTCI政策对老年受益人及其配偶的脆弱性的影响。我们的研究结果显示，在LTCI实施后三到五年内，老年受益人的虚弱程度有统计学上的显著降低。此外，这些积极影响还延伸到配偶身上，夫妻之间的脆弱指数下降就表明了这一点。值得注意的是，受益人及其配偶中居住在农村地区、受教育程度和消费水平较低的男性受益更为明显。脆弱性的减少主要归因于主观幸福感的增强和受益人经济压力的减轻，而不是长期护理服务利用率的提高。

引用次数: 0

Population aging, living arrangements, and inequality: The role of familial transfers in South Korea 人口老龄化、生活安排和不平等：韩国家庭转移的作用

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of the Economics of Ageing

Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100577

Hyun Kyung Kim , Sang-Hyop Lee

Many studies have shown that population aging leads to an increase in inequality because inequalities in income and consumption tend to increase with age. However, the effect of population aging on consumption inequality among the elderly may depend on the strength of the old-age support system, as transfers can reduce inequality. Although the role of public transfers has been widely examined, little is known about the role of familial transfers in reducing inequality. This study constructs National Inclusion Accounts (NIA) by using South Korea’s micro-level National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data by living arrangement and household income level and examines the role of familial transfers in the old-age support system and in reducing inequality. The results suggest that intergenerational familial transfers in extended households help to reduce consumption inequality among older people. By income level, older people in low-income households are more dependent on public transfers. Older people in high-income nuclear households rely more heavily on their own assets for consumption, and those in high-income extended households are more dependent on familial transfers. A counterfactual analysis suggests that consumption inequality among older people has increased over time in large part due to a rapid decline in extended households in South Korea.

许多研究表明，人口老龄化导致不平等的增加，因为收入和消费的不平等往往会随着年龄的增长而增加。然而，人口老龄化对老年人消费不平等的影响可能取决于养老支持系统的强度，因为转移支付可以减少不平等。尽管公共转移的作用已被广泛研究，但人们对家庭转移在减少不平等方面的作用知之甚少。本研究利用韩国微观层面的国民转移账户（NTA）数据，通过生活安排和家庭收入水平构建国民包容账户（NIA），并考察家庭转移在养老保障体系和减少不平等方面的作用。结果表明，大家庭的代际家庭转移有助于减少老年人之间的消费不平等。按收入水平划分，低收入家庭的老年人更依赖公共转移支付。高收入核心家庭的老年人更多地依赖于自己的资产进行消费，而高收入大家庭的老年人则更多地依赖于家庭转移。一项反事实的分析表明，随着时间的推移，老年人之间的消费不平等加剧，这在很大程度上是由于韩国大家庭的迅速减少。

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