Middle East Policy最新文献

The humanitarian crisis that has come to dominate public perception of Yemen since 2015 has left the country's social and civil infrastructure in major disrepair. Postwar recovery and reconstruction will be an essential component of long-term stability in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea subregions. The unchecked distribution of large sums of foreign aid to postwar Yemen has the potential to perpetuate the country's underlying political conflicts without substantively contributing to its much-needed economic development. Similarly, a top-down approach that privileges foreign donors is likely to encounter political and logistical obstacles and may end up devolving into a divisive patronage system. The solution to some of these obstacles may be found in localizing the distribution of development aid, which relies on existing networks in the reconstruction of economic infrastructure. Yemen's history of community-driven development can be the key to a sustainable post-conflict future.

This article examines the role of Chinese armaments in recent Middle Eastern conflicts, showing that although their use has increased over the past decade, they remain less numerous or significant compared to those from the United States and Russia. Chinese-made weapons have been used in conflicts in Gaza, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Lebanon due to affordability, streamlined procurement processes, and improved quality. China's critics have alleged that it has played a negative role in these conflicts through proliferation, claims that Beijing has consistently denied. This research investigates the accuracy of these charges and assesses whether China's role should be considered prominent. The study examines weapons that have been used in five ongoing regional conflicts, including the Gaza war. It finds that, unlike Washington and Moscow, which have deliberately transferred military equipment to the region, China has avoided intentionally directing armaments to Middle Eastern conflict zones. Instead, Chinese arms have been redistributed by third parties. The analysis concludes that China's strategy of balancing its relationships across states in conflict has limited the amount of its weapons in the region and kept the impact of those armaments to a minimum.

The combination of the October 7 attacks and Israel's retaliation in the Gaza Strip has brought the Middle East closer than ever to all-out war. While analysts focus on the long-running enmity between Tel Aviv and Tehran, this article contends that the region can move toward stability only with changes in US policy, especially toward Iran. Ending 40 years of hostile relations would not only help reduce the likelihood of a prolonged Israel-Iran war but also create the conditions necessary to resolve crises in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. The key is to revive the nuclear negotiations and move to a deal that can tamp down rivalries that threaten West Asian security. The author, who as an Iranian official participated in early rounds of nuclear talks in the early 2000s, analyzes the US-Iran rivalry, recommends how to move toward a nuclear-free region, and makes recommendations for shifts in American strategy.

In April 2024, Iran launched its first-ever military strikes on Israeli soil. While the United States and its allies see Tehran as potentially stoking the Gaza war and spreading the conflict across the region, the Islamic Republic has actually drawn its neighbors closer and enjoys friendlier relations with them today than at nearly any point in its 45-year history. This rapprochement had been pursued informally by successive Iranian administrations since the late 1980s. However, it was formally adopted as the “good-neighbor policy” by President Ebrahim Raisi, who served from 2021 until his death in a May 2024 helicopter crash. Raisi's successor, Masoud Pezeshkian, has both the desire to continue the policy and a favorable regional environment within which to do so. Despite serious challenges, Iran has improved engagement with longtime rivals like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE. Even cross-border clashes with the Taliban in Afghanistan have been downplayed in favor of dialogue. Neighborly policies are impermanent. A number of structural and political obstacles could change Iran's calculations, but the approach is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

This article assesses Russia's policy and behavior since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and Israel's war on Gaza. For years, Moscow's approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict was based on “equidistance” between the two parties—maintaining working relations with the Israelis and pledging friendship to the Palestinians. However, the outbreak of the latest war led Russia to take a clearly pro-Palestinian stance and harshly criticize Tel Aviv's military response. The analysis shows that while relations were strained by Russian officials’ anti-Israel statements, Moscow did not fundamentally alter its position. It did not cross Israel's red lines by arming Hamas and other militant groups, nor did it abandon its well-established commitment to the two-state solution. Russia's rhetoric and its high-level diplomacy primarily serve to court the pro-Palestinian Global South and to escape the diplomatic isolation sparked by the war in Ukraine.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has developed an unlikely but pragmatic ally in expanding his hold on state power: the armed forces. This article shows how Erdoğan fundamentally restructured and curbed the military's power after the failed coup attempt of 2016. These reforms divided the army, empowered the police-like gendarmerie, and placed civilian authorities squarely in control of both. The study analyzes the use of the gendarmerie inside Turkey, and the army outside, as the government battled the Covid-19 outbreak and tried to assist foreign countries in their fights against the pandemic. This use of hard power bolstered the government's soft power, strengthening the Erdoğan regime. The case demonstrates the effectiveness of Turkey's new civil-military relations and indicates that we should expect to see the state continue to leverage its military capacity to solve problems at home and abroad.