Middle East Policy最新文献

Market economies in the eastern Mediterranean are not counted among ideal-typical innovators. But this picture may be changing. This article explores the emerging innovation systems in the eastern Mediterranean by examining recent data and the literatures on varieties of capitalism and innovation systems. Through the cases of Cyprus, Israel, and Turkey, the study argues that the varieties of capitalism framework, by focusing on performance at the macro level, disregards the subnational performance of these outlier markets, which have promising regional or local innovation systems. Fostering cooperation among these emerging innovation systems could become a valuable instrument for overcoming deeply rooted conflicts in the eastern Mediterranean, which has turned into a “crisis zone” due to recent energy discoveries.

The invasion of Ukraine sent shock waves through the South Caucasus and Central Asia, subjecting the eight countries of the post-Soviet area to economic, political, and social challenges. Refusing to support Russia in circumventing sanctions or taking a stand against the invasion could expose these countries to retaliatory measures. But aligning with Moscow could lead to international isolation and the imposition of secondary sanctions. This article explores the ways these countries are navigating the new geopolitics, with Azerbaijan gaining but Armenia seeking new allies. It then examines the economic benefits to these countries of Russia's desperation, though this leaves them vulnerable to US and European penalties. It concludes with an analysis of how these states are dealing with the tensions caused by migration out of Russia. In all of these areas, the post-Soviet South must weigh the risks of aligning with the weakening great power or the West.

This article examines the victory of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey's 2023 presidential election, the role of fear-oriented populist nationalism in Turkish politics, and the implications of the results for society. It argues that Turkey faces a deep moral and social crisis rather than a mere political problem. The article explores the sociocultural origins of polarization, as competing communities with few shared values contribute to divisions. It also analyzes the formation and ideologies of the People's Alliance and the Nation Alliance, the two major blocs involved in the 2023 elections, providing insights into their visions for Turkey. Last, the article scrutinizes the cult of the strongman, the widespread use of nationalism and religion, the utilization of state resources by Erdoğan's administration, and the influence of media—largely controlled by Erdoğan—on public opinion. This includes investigating the impact of alternative truths and narratives on the electoral process. The analysis highlights the deep-rooted moral bankruptcy Turkey faces in the third decade of Erdoğan's rule.

Peacekeeping, and the conflicts to which it is applied, have evolved since the United Nations began these operations in 1948. Today, the UN has 90,000 peacekeepers deployed around the world in 12 operations that cost the international community $6.5 billion a year. Half of these missions have been going on for a combined total of three centuries, with no solution in sight to any of them. Five of the remaining six are in response to violent extremism. In those missions, a steadily growing number of peacekeepers are being killed despite the fact that they are unable to make any significant contribution to successfully combating the extremists. UN peacekeeping has therefore become either endless or impossible, and the peacekeepers have neither the carrots nor the sticks to effectively promote peace or punish those who are preventing it. It is time for the international community to rethink how it strives for international stability in conflict situations. To have a serious discussion, however, would require the UN member states to place a higher priority on peace than on their individual national interests.

After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al-Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.

Despite countless studies on victory in armed conflict, scholars disagree about the exact meaning of this term. This article, using primary sources in Hebrew and Arabic, aims to define victory and to discern between types of successful outcomes in war. We analyze three case studies of military collision between Israel and Hamas through a model featuring four levels: tactical, operational, strategic, and systemic. The study shows that in all three clashes (2008, 2012, 2014), the outcomes are difficult to evaluate because the boundaries between the definitions are foggy. It also concludes that neither side has achieved a strategic victory that breaks the status quo that has held since June 2007—though Hamas's leaders have claimed strategic victory due to the group's survival. Israel, without advanced planning, has relied on tactical wins for its strategic policy.