Research in Economics最新文献

This study investigates the critical role of fiscal uncertainty in driving economic growth in South Korea and explores the potential implications for the nation's long-standing low fertility challenge. Utilizing country-year data and advanced measures disaggregating economic policy uncertainty into dimensions like fiscal, monetary, and trade uncertainty, the analysis reveals a strong negative association between fiscal uncertainty and GDP growth rates over the past three decades. Periods of heightened fiscal volatility, characterized by unpredictable government spending, tax policies, and overall economic instability, consistently preceded declines in economic growth. Moreover, the findings indicate that fiscal uncertainty moderates the relationship between economic expansion and fertility rates. While GDP growth generally improves conditions favorable for childbearing by raising living standards, the positive impact on fertility diminishes as fiscal uncertainty increases. Strikingly, at sufficiently high levels of uncertainty, economic growth fails to boost fertility rates, underscoring the crucial role of fiscal stability in reaping the full benefits of growth. These insights highlight the importance of reducing fiscal uncertainty through strategies like implementing tax and spending "calendarization" systems and adopting long-term policy planning horizons. By promoting fiscal predictability and fostering an environment conducive to sustained economic expansion, policymakers can indirectly create conditions that support higher fertility rates by alleviating household aversion to uncertainty. While focused on economic factors, this research acknowledges the multifaceted nature of fertility decisions and calls for a holistic policy approach combined with further causal investigations using micro-level data and experimental designs. Ultimately, prioritizing fiscal stability and addressing fiscal uncertainty present a critical pathway towards stimulating economic growth and potentially revitalizing fertility rates in South Korea and similar developed nations confronting demographic challenges.

The standard overlapping generations model assumes the ability to borrow against bequests. If this assumption is not met, it may happen that not all generations smooth their consumption over time. We prove that by allowing for inter vivos transfers in this latter situation, all generations smooth consumption, i.e. the first best solution is restored. Next, using a combination of Dutch survey and administrative data, we provide empirical support for the model's implication that parents transfer wealth when their children need to borrow out of future resources. Our findings suggest an instrumental role for inter vivos transfers as a device that generations can resort to for smoothing their consumption over time.

We show that “equal tax and equal compensation” (T&C) is fair as justified by the two fairness principles. It differs from any Pigouvian tax with fixed lump-sum payments and can motivate every country to maximize world welfare. It benefits countries with current per capita emissions lower than the world average and would benefit every country when compared with a fair benchmark where emissions are duly penalized and compensated. Subsidizing emission reduction by poll tax is Pareto efficient and Pareto improving over status quo, but unfair. An imperfect T&C with a sub-optimal tax or pyramid taxes can still benefit the world.

This paper analyzes a decision-making process known as Choice by Elimination then Selection (ES), in which an individual narrows down available alternatives based on a preference order called the elimination relation and then selects the best element from the remaining alternative(s) based on a different preference order called the selection relation. The elimination and selection criteria need not rank alternatives in the same order. ES can be seen as a response to information overload, where shortlisting alternatives can facilitate more informed and beneficial choices. It can also be seen as a method to make a choice when moral or personal values are in the way of utility maximization. The paper uses an axiomatic approach to fully characterize the choices based on the ES method, showing that ES choices may not satisfy the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference (WARP) and, thus, are not rationalizable under the standard classical framework. Four axioms are introduced to fully characterize the choice correspondence based on ES. The paper also discusses the uniqueness of the elimination and selection ordering relations. The ES method belongs to the class of models that analyze boundedly rational choice behavior, such as choice with frames, limited attention models, list rationalizable models, categorize then choose, and status quo bias.

We review, from a practical standpoint, the evolving literature on assessing external validity (EV) of estimated treatment effects. We review existing EV measures, and focus on methods that permit multiple datasets (Hotz et al., 2005). We outline criteria for practical usage, evaluate the existing approaches, and identify a gap in potential methods. Our practical considerations motivate a novel method utilizing the Group Lasso (Yuan and Lin, 2006) to estimate a tractable regression-based model of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). This approach can perform better when settings have differing covariate distributions and allows for easily extrapolating the average treatment effect to new settings. We apply these measures to a set of identical field experiments upgrading slum dwellings in three different countries (Galiani et al., 2017).

Consumer sentiment is a relevant tool for experts when it comes to determining the economic situation in a country, making it possible to analyze the spending trend in advance; for this reason, this paper analyzes links between monetary policy and the inflation rate in the behavior of consumer sentiment in the United States. We use methodologies based on fractional integration and fractional cointegration to obtain the stochastic properties of the monthly time series, from December 2019 to August 2022. The results using fractional integration methodologies exhibit a high degree of persistence and the consumer price index (CPI) and consumer sentiment index present a non-mean reversion I(1) behavior. Focusing on the cointegrating part, we conclude from the results that: 1) an increase in the variable “Total Monetary Base” produces an increase in the CPI, 2) the “variation in the total monetary base” in the United States does not affect consumer sentiment, and 3) a positive variation in the consumer sentiment indicator affects the increase in the inflation rate in the United States.

Motivated by the weak response of the inflation rate to the tight labor market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank stepped away from its longstanding preemptive policy to fight inflation as the economy approached full employment. This paper aims to reevaluate the relationships of four measures of inflation with the unemployment rate. We accomplish this task by allowing the Phillips curve (PC) slope to vary over time and depend on the magnitude of the unemployment gap. Assessed by both PC convex specification assessment and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method, we confirm the convexity of the PC when the unemployment gap is negative. In addition, we show that the slope of the PC more than doubled when we allow the coefficient on the economic slack to vary over time. Thus, our study shows that PC is still a relevant tool for guiding monetary policy.

In this paper, we compare the scenarios of exclusive licenses and cross-licenses under the existence of partial vertical integration. To do this, a successive duopoly model is proposed, with two owners and two firms competing in a differentiated product market. Each technology owner has a share in one of the competing firms, so that competition is also extended to the upstream R&D sector. We propose a novel analysis where differences in the size of their innovation process are allowed, extending the results in Sánchez et al. (2021). We find that the cross-licensing scenario is preferred when the size of the innovation is small; this occurs regardless of the participation in the competing companies and how many innovate. If the innovation is very large, the owners may be better off with exclusive licenses.

The article aims to examine the potential effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the mean and variance of carbon (CO2) emissions by employing a novel nonparametric causality-in-quantiles and quantile-on-quantile on the dataset comprising of 17 economies to test our hypothesis. The results of causality-in-quantiles find that EPU offers a significant yet mixed ability to impact the carbon emissions of most economies. These mixed patterns of impact pertain not only to mean and variance but also across regions. The results of quantile-on-quantile reveal that high EPU leads to an augmented level of carbon emissions. This causality may indicate that macroeconomic and institutional factors influence the carbon emission for all analyzed countries. These findings are particularly useful for practitioners, policymakers, academic researchers, and traders in the carbon market as they could promote the realization of carbon reductions targets by maintaining stable economic policies that have tangible ramifications for carbon emissions behavior.

During the COVID-19 pandemic governments and individuals alike faced incentives to limit the spread of the disease. Our objective is to assess the extent to which government mandates and private actions influenced time allocated to specific activities and the social interactions of individuals. Information on how individuals spent their time before and during the early stages of the pandemic come from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), which identifies time use for a 24-hour period and includes each individual's activities, locations and companions. We combine the time diary data with data on state-level restrictions from the Kaiser Family Foundation and state-level COVID-19 infection and death rates from Johns Hopkins University. Our findings suggest that private actions in response to reported death rates are comparable to the effects of state-level public mandates on the outcome variables of time alone and time at home. In evaluating effects based on sex and age, we find that young males experienced the largest disruption in time use, significantly changing both their location and their companions. We also find important age profile differences between males and females.