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The effect of human capital on the trade-growth nexus: A dynamic panel threshold analysis 人力资本对贸易-增长关系的影响:动态面板阈值分析
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100988
Mariem Gharsallah, Salwa Trabelsi

This paper analyzes the nonlinear effect of trade openness on economic growth over a sample of developed and developing countries during the period 1980–2020. Using a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model advanced by Seo and Shin (2016), and Seo et al., (2019), the results prove the existence of a human capital's threshold level above it openness to trade has a positive effect on economic growth. More precisely, trade can enhance economic performance if the human capital is high, otherwise, the effect is negative.

本文以发达国家和发展中国家为样本,分析了 1980-2020 年间贸易开放对经济增长的非线性影响。利用 Seo 和 Shin(2016 年)以及 Seo 等人(2019 年)提出的动态面板阈值模型,结果证明存在一个人力资本阈值水平,在该水平之上,贸易开放对经济增长有积极影响。更确切地说,如果人力资本较高,贸易可以提高经济表现,反之,则效果为负。
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引用次数: 0
Stronger Patent Regime, Innovation and Scientist Mobility 加强专利制度、创新和科学家流动性
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101004
Madhuparna Ganguly

This paper analyzes the effects of a stronger patent regime on innovation incentives, patenting propensity and scientist mobility when an innovating firm can partially recover its damage due to scientist movement from the infringing rival. The strength of the patent system, which is a function of litigation success probability and damage recovery proportion, stipulates expected indemnification. We show that stronger patents fail to reduce the likelihood of infringement and further, decrease the innovation’s expected profitability. Higher potential reparation also reduces the scientist’s expected return on R&D knowledge, entailing greater R&D investment. Our results suggest important considerations for patent reforms.

本文分析了当创新企业可以部分弥补因竞争对手侵权而造成的科学家流动损失时,较强的专利制度对创新激励、专利申请倾向和科学家流动的影响。专利制度的强度是诉讼成功概率和损害赔偿比例的函数,它规定了预期赔偿。我们的研究表明,较强的专利并不能降低侵权的可能性,反而会降低创新的预期收益率。更高的潜在赔偿也会降低科学家对研发知识的预期回报,从而导致研发投资的增加。我们的研究结果为专利改革提供了重要依据。
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引用次数: 0
The macroeconomic effects of productivity shocks: Predictions of conventional business cycle models are not always incompatible with SSA economies 生产力冲击对宏观经济的影响:传统商业周期模型的预测并非总是与撒哈拉以南非洲经济体不相容
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101012
Emmanuel Ameyaw
Despite the increasing application of DSGE and RBC models to Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies, questions persist about their alignment with empirical evidence for these economies. This study challenges claims of substantial incongruity with respect to the propagation of productivity shocks by demonstrating a close correspondence between empirical evidence for Ghana’s economy and predictions of the classical real business cycle model. Following a positive productivity shock, we observe a positive comovement among aggregate demand variables (i.e., consumption, investment, government spending, exports, and imports), aggregate supply variables (capital and labor), and money supply while the inflation rate and interest rate decline. Among these, we find the responses of output, consumption, government spending, and inflation rate to be statistically significant. These results contradict assertions of discordance between conventional business cycle models and SSA structural characteristics, at least for Ghana’s economy. The study is motivated by limited empirical evidence on how productivity shocks propagate through SSA economies, and for Ghana, there is no such study. On a secondary goal and by virtue of using a time-varying parameter VAR model, our results also suggest that Ghana’s long business cycle moderation from the mid-1980s to about 2010 was primarily due to a reduction in the volatility of shocks hitting the economy rather than changes in the structural relationship between macroeconomic variables.
尽管 DSGE 和 RBC 模型越来越多地应用于撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)经济体,但这些模型与这些经济体的经验证据是否一致的问题依然存在。本研究通过证明加纳经济的经验证据与经典实际商业周期模型的预测之间存在密切的对应关系,对有关生产率冲击传播方面存在严重不一致的说法提出了质疑。在生产率受到正向冲击后,我们观察到总需求变量(即消费、投资、政府支出、出口和进口)、总供给变量(资本和劳动力)和货币供应量之间的正相关性,同时通货膨胀率和利率下降。其中,我们发现产出、消费、政府支出和通胀率的反应在统计上是显著的。这些结果与传统商业周期模型和 SSA 结构特征不一致的说法相矛盾,至少对加纳经济而言是如此。这项研究的动机是,关于生产率冲击如何在撒哈拉以南非洲经济体中传播的经验证据有限,而对于加纳而言,尚无此类研究。在次要目标上,由于使用了时变参数 VAR 模型,我们的结果还表明,加纳从 20 世纪 80 年代中期到 2010 年左右的长期商业周期缓和主要是由于冲击经济的波动性降低,而不是宏观经济变量之间的结构关系发生了变化。
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引用次数: 0
Oil Price and Long-run Economic Growth in Oil-importing Developing Countries 石油进口发展中国家的石油价格与长期经济增长
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101009
Samuel F. Gamtessa, Harminder Guliani
The recent spikes in oil prices are a significant setback for the world economy, which has already faced multiple challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is particularly concerning for developing countries as maintaining a sustained growth in real GDP is crucial for lifting their population out of poverty. While the short-run negative macroeconomic effects of a spike in oil prices are well established in the context of the developed world, the long-run growth effect has received little attention, especially in developing countries. Using the World Bank's development indicators database covering the period 1990 to 2020, this study aims to investigate the oil price-growth nexus in low and middle-income net oil-importing countries to shed light on how oil price increases could be a challenge for sustainable development. Specifically, we first set up a theoretical model to establish the relationship between growth in output per capita and oil price. Following the traditional growth regression approaches, we empirically estimate the causal effect of growth in oil prices on the economic growth of 65 net oil-importing developing countries using fixed effect panel IV regression methods. The empirical results confirm statistically significant negative effects of oil prices, indicating that a higher oil price reduces long-run economic growth in oil-importing developing countries. Our results on the other determinants of growth are consistent with the existing empirical growth literature. Oil-importing developing countries, therefore, must allocate resources towards alternative domestic energy sources, in addition to pursuing fuel efficiency and conservation strategies, to mitigate the negative effects of oil price fluctuations on their long-run economic output and uphold sustainable development.
由于 COVID-19 大流行病,世界经济已经面临多重挑战,最近的石油价格飙升是世界经济的重大挫折。这尤其令发展中国家担忧,因为保持实际国内生产总值的持续增长对于帮助这些国家的人口摆脱贫困至关重要。虽然油价飙升对宏观经济的短期负面影响在发达国家已得到公认,但其对经济增长的长期影响却很少受到关注,尤其是在发展中国家。本研究利用世界银行 1990 年至 2020 年期间的发展指标数据库,旨在调查中低收入石油净进口国的石油价格与增长之间的关系,以揭示石油价格上涨如何对可持续发展构成挑战。具体来说,我们首先建立了一个理论模型,以确定人均产出增长与石油价格之间的关系。按照传统的增长回归方法,我们采用固定效应面板 IV 回归方法,实证估计了油价增长对 65 个净石油进口发展中国家经济增长的因果效应。实证结果证实了石油价格在统计上的显著负效应,表明石油价格上涨会降低石油进口发展中国家的长期经济增长。我们对经济增长其他决定因素的研究结果与现有的经济增长实证文献一致。因此,进口石油的发展中国家除了采取燃料效率和节约战略外,还必须将资源分配给国内替代能源,以减轻石油价格波动对其长期经济产出的负面影响,坚持可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
CBDC and banking stability: Modeling cascading effects on reserves, lending, and liquidity CBDC 与银行业稳定性:模拟对储备金、贷款和流动性的连带效应
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101005
Gilles Brice M'bakob , Anatole Tchounga

This research uses a dynamic modelling approach to design and simulate an equilibrium model of the interaction between CBDC issuance, deposits and bank reserves. With many central banks announcing their intention to issue central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), it has become imperative to rigorously analyse the potential impact of these issues on the banking system. This study aims to examine the implications of the introduction of CBDCs within a robust analytical framework, in order to inform policymakers and financial sector players about the possible consequences of this major monetary innovation. The study results show that overconfidence of economic agents towards CBDCs can drastically reduce bank reserves, thereby limiting the lending capacity of banks and creating liquidity problems. Similarly, increasing reserve requirements in fiat currency for each unit of CBDC issued can constrain bank reserves and restrict loans and deposits. Additionally, a rise in interest rates on CBDC-related loans can discourage borrowers, thereby reducing loan demand and affecting banking activity. An increase in interest rates leads to a decrease in the quantity of CBDC in circulation, an increase in bank reserves and deposits in CBDC, and a decrease in bank loans. Monitoring the level of confidence of economic agents towards CBDCs is crucial to avoid excessive speculation.

本研究采用动态建模方法,设计并模拟了 CBDC 发行、存款和银行储备之间相互作用的均衡模型。随着许多中央银行宣布有意发行中央银行数字货币(CBDCs),严格分析这些问题对银行系统的潜在影响已成为当务之急。本研究旨在一个稳健的分析框架内研究引入 CBDCs 的影响,以便让政策制定者和金融业参与者了解这一重大货币创新可能带来的后果。研究结果表明,经济主体对 CBDC 的过度信任会大幅降低银行准备金,从而限制银行的贷款能力,造成流动性问题。同样,提高每发行一单位 CBDC 的法定货币储备要求也会限制银行储备,限制贷款和存款。此外,与 CBDC 相关的贷款利率上升会打击借款人的积极性,从而减少贷款需求,影响银行活动。利率上升会导致 CBDC 流通量减少,银行准备金和 CBDC 存款增加,银行贷款减少。要避免过度投机,监测经济主体对银行间债券市场的信心水平至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
The causes and consequences of official diplomatic visits: A survey 官方外交访问的前因后果:调查
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100978
Oasis Kodila-Tedika , Sherif Khalifa

This paper surveys the nascent literature on the causes and consequences of official diplomatic visits that are undertaken by country's leaders, heads of states, chiefs of the executive, foreign ministers, and international notable figures and prominent personnel. The paper discusses the need for such a literature survey, the nature and sources of data used in the pertinent studies, and the determinants and factors behind official diplomatic visits. The paper also covers the political, economic, social, and cultural consequences of official visits. The paper concludes with some recommendations for future research.

本文对有关国家领导人、国家元首、行政首长、外交部长以及国际知名人士和杰出人士进行正式外交访问的原因和后果的新文献进行了调查。本文讨论了进行此类文献调查的必要性、相关研究中使用的数据的性质和来源,以及官方外交访问背后的决定因素。本文还论述了官方访问的政治、经济、社会和文化影响。最后,本文对今后的研究提出了一些建议。
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引用次数: 0
Skilled emigration in a world of variety 多样化世界中的技术移民
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100979
Subhasree Basak , Kausik Gupta

Upgradation of export product quality and product diversification are two crucial determinants of the economic growth of developing countries. Both depend heavily on the endowment and quality of the skilled labor. However, one of the challenges developing countries face is the emigration of skilled labor. In this paper, we intend to explore the effect of skilled labor emigration on the export product quality, the number of varieties produced (extensive margin), and the amount of production (intensive margin). To do so, we provide a theoretical framework followed by empirical evidence. Results suggest that export product quality deteriorates with an outflow of skilled labor. Moreover, the number of varieties produced by the domestically specialized manufacturing or domestic service sectors falls but the total amount of production increases. This product diversification at the domestic level has a similar impact on export diversification when we have skilled emigration. The theoretical results have been examined empirically in this paper.

出口产品质量升级和产品多样化是发展中国家经济增长的两个重要决定因素。这两个因素在很大程度上取决于熟练劳动力的禀赋和质量。然而,发展中国家面临的挑战之一就是熟练劳动力的外流。在本文中,我们打算探讨熟练劳动力移民对出口产品质量、生产品种数量(广义边际)和生产量(密集边际)的影响。为此,我们提供了一个理论框架,并随后提供了经验证据。结果表明,随着熟练劳动力的外流,出口产品质量会下降。此外,国内专业制造业或国内服务业生产的品种数量减少,但生产总量增加。在技术移民的情况下,国内产品多样化对出口多样化也会产生类似的影响。本文对理论结果进行了实证研究。
{"title":"Skilled emigration in a world of variety","authors":"Subhasree Basak ,&nbsp;Kausik Gupta","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2024.100979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2024.100979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Upgradation of export product quality and product diversification are two crucial determinants of the economic growth of developing countries. Both depend heavily on the endowment and quality of the skilled labor. However, one of the challenges developing countries face is the emigration of skilled labor. In this paper, we intend to explore the effect of skilled labor emigration on the export product quality, the number of varieties produced (extensive margin), and the amount of production (intensive margin). To do so, we provide a theoretical framework followed by empirical evidence. Results suggest that export product quality deteriorates with an outflow of skilled labor. Moreover, the number of varieties produced by the domestically specialized manufacturing or domestic service sectors falls but the total amount of production increases. This product diversification at the domestic level has a similar impact on export diversification when we have skilled emigration. The theoretical results have been examined empirically in this paper.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"78 3","pages":"Article 100979"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141281896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of ageing on housing prices: A perspective from an overlapping generation model 老龄化对房价的影响:从世代重叠模型的角度看问题
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100960
Tianyu Sun , Satish Chand , Keiran Sharpe

This paper suggests that ageing has divergent effects on housing prices, and the divergence sources from both aspects of ageing and housing. For the ageing, a fall in fertility and a rise in survival rate could have opposite effects on housing prices. For the housing, the prices of the two components – land and structure – respond to fertility rate decline and survival rate increase to different extent. Therefore, the effect of ageing on housing prices does not have a definite pattern in the long run. In the short run, the results suggest that ageing can produce a turning point in the price dynamics. To the left of the peak, ageing boosts prices while to the right, it has the opposite effect, therefore the impacts of ageing on housing prices are different with time.

本文认为,老龄化对房价的影响是不同的,这种不同来自老龄化和住房两个方面。就老龄化而言,生育率下降和存活率上升会对房价产生相反的影响。就住房而言,土地和结构这两部分的价格对生育率下降和存活率上升的反应程度不同。因此,从长期来看,老龄化对住房价格的影响并没有明确的模式。从短期来看,结果表明老龄化会使房价动态出现转折点。在峰值的左侧,老龄化会推动房价上涨,而在峰值的右侧,老龄化则会产生相反的影响,因此老龄化对房价的影响随着时间的推移而不同。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of the 2001 draft suspension in Spain on educational attainment 2001 年西班牙暂停征兵对教育程度的影响
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100980
Stefani Milovanska-Farrington, Cagdas Agirdas

Following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, multiple European countries abolished compulsive military service to opt for a professional military. These reforms may have positive or negative effects on young men's educational attainment. On one hand, these individuals may have more time to pursue their education without the interruption caused by compulsive military service. On the other, if young men were using their education as a way to delay or prevent compulsive military service, then they may pursue less education in the absence of such an incentive. In this study, we ask how the 2001 reform to abolish compulsive military service in Spain affected educational attainment of young men. Using a difference-in-differences approach along time and gender, we find that there was a significant increase in university education and a significant decrease in secondary education after the reform. Next, we use a triple difference model along time, gender and a binary variable indicating whether both of the young man's parents were low educated in order to analyze the potential heterogenous effects of the reform depending on the education level of an individual. We find that an average young man born after 1982 was 7.6% more likely to obtain university education and 9.7% less likely to obtain secondary education after the reform. Finally, we control for time, year, and province of birth fixed effects to mitigate omitted variable bias. Our results remain similar except that the positive effect of the reform on university education becomes marginally significant.

柏林墙倒塌和冷战结束后,多个欧洲国家废除了义务兵役制,转而选择职业军人。这些改革可能会对青年男子的受教育程度产生积极或消极的影响。一方面,这些人可能会有更多的时间接受教育,而不会因为义务兵役而中断学业。另一方面,如果年轻男性把接受教育作为推迟或防止强迫性兵役的一种方式,那么在没有这种激励的情况下,他们可能会减少接受教育的次数。在本研究中,我们探讨了 2001 年西班牙废除义务兵役制的改革对青年男子受教育程度的影响。利用时间和性别差异法,我们发现改革后大学教育显著增加,而中学教育显著减少。接下来,我们使用时间、性别和二元变量的三重差分模型来说明年轻人的父母是否都是低学历者,以分析改革对个人教育水平的潜在异质性影响。我们发现,改革后,1982 年以后出生的年轻人平均接受大学教育的可能性提高了 7.6%,接受中等教育的可能性降低了 9.7%。最后,我们控制了时间、年份和出生省份的固定效应,以减少遗漏变量偏差。除了改革对大学教育的积极影响变得略微显著之外,我们的结果仍然相似。
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引用次数: 0
Is local competition effective in improving quality and efficiency of hospitals? Insights from an asymmetric spatial competition model 地方竞争能否有效提高医院的质量和效率?非对称空间竞争模型的启示
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100962
Calogero Guccio , Domenico Lisi , Marco Ferdinando Martorana , Giacomo Pignataro

A critical aspect of healthcare reforms in various countries revolves around the relationship between efficiency, quality, and competition. Exploring the spatial dimension of competition is essential to understand this connection thoroughly. In this study, we develop a theoretical model that examines hospitals' choices regarding quality and cost-containment efforts across different competitive environments characterized by varying spatial distributions of hospitals. We derive and fully characterize hospitals' reaction functions and Nash equilibria concerning quality and cost-containment efforts. Our findings reveal that while localized competition tends to reduce hospitals' efforts in cost containment, its impact on treatment quality can vary. This variation depends on factors such as the cost of delivering quality care, its benefits to patients, and hospitals' objectives, including their level of altruism. Our findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of local competition in healthcare. They offer insights into the conditions that could yield divergent outcomes, often advocated by conflicting perspectives. These conditions serve as a foundation for refining competition policy models in healthcare.

各国医疗改革的一个重要方面是围绕效率、质量和竞争之间的关系展开的。探索竞争的空间维度对于深入理解这种关系至关重要。在本研究中,我们建立了一个理论模型,考察了医院在不同的竞争环境中对质量和成本控制努力的选择,这些竞争环境的特点是医院的空间分布各不相同。我们推导并全面描述了医院在质量和成本控制方面的反应函数和纳什均衡。我们的研究结果表明,虽然本地化竞争往往会减少医院在成本控制方面的努力,但其对治疗质量的影响会有所不同。这种差异取决于多种因素,如提供优质医疗服务的成本、对患者的益处以及医院的目标,包括其利他主义程度。我们的研究结果为目前关于地方竞争在医疗保健中的作用的讨论做出了贡献。我们的研究结果深入揭示了可能产生不同结果的条件,而这些条件往往是相互冲突的观点所主张的。这些条件为完善医疗保健领域的竞争政策模式奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
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Research in Economics
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