Pub Date : 2020-05-24DOI: 10.1080/1088937x.2020.1766591
S. Kakareka, S. Salivonchyk
ABSTRACT The first results of high spatial resolution modeling of the dispersion of atmospheric pollutant emissions from mobile sources in Antarctica are presented. Options for assessing the impacts of vehicles on air quality in Antarctica are discussed using the Belarusian Antarctic Station at Vecherny Oasis, Enderby Land, as an example. Sources of input data and collection and processing of these data are described. Surface air concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and concentrations and dry atmospheric deposition levels of respirable suspended particulate matter (PM10) are estimated for different averaging periods and scenarios of the volume and spatial allocation of emission. Nowadays, the number of vehicles in the oasis is small. However, by the estimates, the maximum hourly concentrations of PM10 and NO2 at certain locations and under certain conditions could reach perceptible share of the air quality guideline value. Some other Antarctic stations have significant vehicle population, and assessment of their air impacts will be especially important. Suggestions for improvements of the quantitative assessment of impacts of mobile emission sources in Antarctica are proposed.
{"title":"Assessment of atmospheric pollutant dispersion from mobile sources in Antarctica: a case study of Vecherny Oasis","authors":"S. Kakareka, S. Salivonchyk","doi":"10.1080/1088937x.2020.1766591","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937x.2020.1766591","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The first results of high spatial resolution modeling of the dispersion of atmospheric pollutant emissions from mobile sources in Antarctica are presented. Options for assessing the impacts of vehicles on air quality in Antarctica are discussed using the Belarusian Antarctic Station at Vecherny Oasis, Enderby Land, as an example. Sources of input data and collection and processing of these data are described. Surface air concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and concentrations and dry atmospheric deposition levels of respirable suspended particulate matter (PM10) are estimated for different averaging periods and scenarios of the volume and spatial allocation of emission. Nowadays, the number of vehicles in the oasis is small. However, by the estimates, the maximum hourly concentrations of PM10 and NO2 at certain locations and under certain conditions could reach perceptible share of the air quality guideline value. Some other Antarctic stations have significant vehicle population, and assessment of their air impacts will be especially important. Suggestions for improvements of the quantitative assessment of impacts of mobile emission sources in Antarctica are proposed.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":"1 1","pages":"280 - 294"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89738952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-05-22DOI: 10.1080/1088937x.2020.1767709
Sini Kantola, S. Tuulentie
ABSTRACT Like innumerable areas worldwide, northern and Arctic areas are experiencing rapid urbanization. The land is often publicly owned in the main, and there are many interests focusing on the same areas. Different activities lead to specific challenges in land use management in regard to public participation. There are guidelines and legal norms for participation in Finland from the municipality to the ministry level, but the style and rate of participation vary a lot from city to city. In this article the potential of public participatory geographic information systems (PPGIS) is examined in the Arctic city, Rovaniemi. The research questions are: How has participation in land use planning and decision-making been implemented in the context of sparsely populated Arctic city the past and present times? How do the interviewees see the potential of the use of PPGIS? Attitudes towards PPGIS were positive, but the implementation of all types of participation data, such as PPGIS data, was seen as vague and weak. Challenges of the participation were associated with poor communication, insufficient information, and lack of trust. Nature values and local opinions were considered to be at risk of being overshadowed by economic values.
{"title":"Participation in a large Arctic city – the possibilities of PPGIS for improving interaction","authors":"Sini Kantola, S. Tuulentie","doi":"10.1080/1088937x.2020.1767709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937x.2020.1767709","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Like innumerable areas worldwide, northern and Arctic areas are experiencing rapid urbanization. The land is often publicly owned in the main, and there are many interests focusing on the same areas. Different activities lead to specific challenges in land use management in regard to public participation. There are guidelines and legal norms for participation in Finland from the municipality to the ministry level, but the style and rate of participation vary a lot from city to city. In this article the potential of public participatory geographic information systems (PPGIS) is examined in the Arctic city, Rovaniemi. The research questions are: How has participation in land use planning and decision-making been implemented in the context of sparsely populated Arctic city the past and present times? How do the interviewees see the potential of the use of PPGIS? Attitudes towards PPGIS were positive, but the implementation of all types of participation data, such as PPGIS data, was seen as vague and weak. Challenges of the participation were associated with poor communication, insufficient information, and lack of trust. Nature values and local opinions were considered to be at risk of being overshadowed by economic values.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":"106 1","pages":"295 - 312"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79281045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-28DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2020.1755906
D. Cost, A. Lovecraft
ABSTRACT How do arctic youth perceive the resilience of their communities? Many of today’s high school students in Arctic Alaska will takeup leadership roles in their communities in the next decade. The social-environmental changes these communities face are disruptive andpose challenges to local governance now and into the future. Arctic Futures Makers (AFM) was a scenarios workshop of 22 Alaska Indigenoushigh school students convened over two days in February 2016 on the resilience of the Northwest Arctic Borough’s communities in light ofclimate and development changes. The scope of the scenarios workshop focused on defining factors the students felt were key to the futureof healthy and sustainable communities. The intent was to understand how potential leaders perceived the futures of their communities andtheir own role in the changing dynamics of the Arctic. Three findings are significant to explain how these youth think about themselves andtheir region’s future: (1) high school students’ results are similar to those of adults in similar workshops but with important differencesrelated to what makes a community ‘livable’ (2) students were initially reticent to imagine multiple possible futures (3) students’ perceptionsof their own communities’ resilience changed after the workshop experience.
{"title":"Scenarios development with Alaska’s Arctic Indigenous youth: perceptions of healthy sustainable futures in the Northwest Arctic Borough","authors":"D. Cost, A. Lovecraft","doi":"10.1080/1088937X.2020.1755906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2020.1755906","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT How do arctic youth perceive the resilience of their communities? Many of today’s high school students in Arctic Alaska will takeup leadership roles in their communities in the next decade. The social-environmental changes these communities face are disruptive andpose challenges to local governance now and into the future. Arctic Futures Makers (AFM) was a scenarios workshop of 22 Alaska Indigenoushigh school students convened over two days in February 2016 on the resilience of the Northwest Arctic Borough’s communities in light ofclimate and development changes. The scope of the scenarios workshop focused on defining factors the students felt were key to the futureof healthy and sustainable communities. The intent was to understand how potential leaders perceived the futures of their communities andtheir own role in the changing dynamics of the Arctic. Three findings are significant to explain how these youth think about themselves andtheir region’s future: (1) high school students’ results are similar to those of adults in similar workshops but with important differencesrelated to what makes a community ‘livable’ (2) students were initially reticent to imagine multiple possible futures (3) students’ perceptionsof their own communities’ resilience changed after the workshop experience.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":"23 1","pages":"112 - 135"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75513613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-28DOI: 10.1080/1088937x.2020.1755907
M. Brady, R. Leichenko
ABSTRACT The impacts of coastal erosion on municipal infrastructure and property have been widely documented within coastal Alaska. Less is known, however, about erosion-related impacts on natural resource-based land uses that contribute to the well-being of Alaska’s Native residents. This study explores erosion impacts on resource-based land uses on Alaska’s North Slope. The study utilized a collaborative mapping workshop approach, in which research participants defined major categories of land use impacts, identified locations most at risk, and described key local and regional effects of erosion. The study findings highlight three critical types of land use impacts associated with coastal erosion. These include: (1) disruption of subsistence hunting; (2) losses associated with damaged military radar assets (DEW-Line); and, (3) constrained hydrocarbon related development opportunities on land controlled by Native corporations. Through specification of locally relevant land use impacts, the study findings contribute to a better understanding of how climate change is undermining cryosphere-related ecosystem services, particularly buffering cultural and economic activity from coastal storms. The study results reinforce the utility and value of co-production approaches for Arctic climate impact assessments. Through integration of local perspectives on erosion risks, the study contributes to collective regional knowledge about climate change risks to Arctic communities.
{"title":"The impacts of coastal erosion on Alaska’s North Slope communities: a co-production assessment of land use damages and risks","authors":"M. Brady, R. Leichenko","doi":"10.1080/1088937x.2020.1755907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937x.2020.1755907","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The impacts of coastal erosion on municipal infrastructure and property have been widely documented within coastal Alaska. Less is known, however, about erosion-related impacts on natural resource-based land uses that contribute to the well-being of Alaska’s Native residents. This study explores erosion impacts on resource-based land uses on Alaska’s North Slope. The study utilized a collaborative mapping workshop approach, in which research participants defined major categories of land use impacts, identified locations most at risk, and described key local and regional effects of erosion. The study findings highlight three critical types of land use impacts associated with coastal erosion. These include: (1) disruption of subsistence hunting; (2) losses associated with damaged military radar assets (DEW-Line); and, (3) constrained hydrocarbon related development opportunities on land controlled by Native corporations. Through specification of locally relevant land use impacts, the study findings contribute to a better understanding of how climate change is undermining cryosphere-related ecosystem services, particularly buffering cultural and economic activity from coastal storms. The study results reinforce the utility and value of co-production approaches for Arctic climate impact assessments. Through integration of local perspectives on erosion risks, the study contributes to collective regional knowledge about climate change risks to Arctic communities.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":"26 1","pages":"259 - 279"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86584492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-28DOI: 10.1080/1088937x.2020.1755904
E. K. Smith, Christina Eder, Alexia Katsanidou
ABSTRACT Global climate change has the potential to cause rapid changes throughout the world, particularly in the polar regions. While much is known about attitudes towards climate change in general, relatively little is understood about individual orientations towards earth systems affected by climate change, and in particular, polar ice loss. Utilizing novel data from Germany, this study presents a first of its kind analysis of the relationship between knowledge, concern, and individual willingness to make behavioral changes in response to polar ice loss. We find that knowledge of changes to the polar region is positively related to concern for the polar region. But, when looking at willingness to make behavioral changes, concern for the polar regions remains the strongest predictor, while there is little direct effect of individual self-assessed knowledge. Further, concern for the polar region remains a robust predictor of willingness to make behavioral changes, even after individual driving habits are introduced to the model. As such, this analysis builds upon the emerging literature of German orientations towards climate change, as well as understanding the mechanisms by which individuals are willing to engage in behavioral changes in response to changes to the polar regions.
{"title":"On thinning ice: understanding the knowledge, concerns and behaviors towards polar ice loss in Germany","authors":"E. K. Smith, Christina Eder, Alexia Katsanidou","doi":"10.1080/1088937x.2020.1755904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937x.2020.1755904","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Global climate change has the potential to cause rapid changes throughout the world, particularly in the polar regions. While much is known about attitudes towards climate change in general, relatively little is understood about individual orientations towards earth systems affected by climate change, and in particular, polar ice loss. Utilizing novel data from Germany, this study presents a first of its kind analysis of the relationship between knowledge, concern, and individual willingness to make behavioral changes in response to polar ice loss. We find that knowledge of changes to the polar region is positively related to concern for the polar region. But, when looking at willingness to make behavioral changes, concern for the polar regions remains the strongest predictor, while there is little direct effect of individual self-assessed knowledge. Further, concern for the polar region remains a robust predictor of willingness to make behavioral changes, even after individual driving habits are introduced to the model. As such, this analysis builds upon the emerging literature of German orientations towards climate change, as well as understanding the mechanisms by which individuals are willing to engage in behavioral changes in response to changes to the polar regions.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":"65 2 1","pages":"243 - 258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90943255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-23DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2020.1755905
Simo Sarkki, Sirpa Rasmus, M. Landauer, Élise Lépy, H. Heikkinen
ABSTRACT Matching knowledge Demand, research Funding and knowledge Supply (DFS) is important in order to enhance societally and policy relevant research, target funding appropriately and enhance the connectivity between science, policy and society. The DFS field around reindeer management in Finland offers a fertile case study to examine interconnected and complex trends as well as the relations between herders’ and policymakers’ knowledge demand, ministerial funding and independent supply of knowledge by science. We identify matches and mismatches between the DFS in a case study of reindeer management in Finland across ten inductively identified themes and in time scales of 2000–2009 and 2010–2018. The main finding was that, during the latter period, the DFS matched significantly better than in the earlier period. In order to explain this, we identify and discuss five alternative and legitimate co-creation dynamics that explain how the DFS is organizing around the reindeer management in Finland. The five dynamics represent variations in the co-creation approach, fit to varying situations, which can inform of alternative ways to better match the DFS around reindeer management, and they are also applicable in other contexts.
{"title":"Matching societal knowledge demand, research funding and scientific knowledge supply: trends and co-creation dynamics around reindeer management in Finland","authors":"Simo Sarkki, Sirpa Rasmus, M. Landauer, Élise Lépy, H. Heikkinen","doi":"10.1080/1088937X.2020.1755905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2020.1755905","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Matching knowledge Demand, research Funding and knowledge Supply (DFS) is important in order to enhance societally and policy relevant research, target funding appropriately and enhance the connectivity between science, policy and society. The DFS field around reindeer management in Finland offers a fertile case study to examine interconnected and complex trends as well as the relations between herders’ and policymakers’ knowledge demand, ministerial funding and independent supply of knowledge by science. We identify matches and mismatches between the DFS in a case study of reindeer management in Finland across ten inductively identified themes and in time scales of 2000–2009 and 2010–2018. The main finding was that, during the latter period, the DFS matched significantly better than in the earlier period. In order to explain this, we identify and discuss five alternative and legitimate co-creation dynamics that explain how the DFS is organizing around the reindeer management in Finland. The five dynamics represent variations in the co-creation approach, fit to varying situations, which can inform of alternative ways to better match the DFS around reindeer management, and they are also applicable in other contexts.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":"2 1","pages":"90 - 111"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85195818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-20DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707317
Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath De Silva, J. Inoue, H. Yamaguchi, Takeshi Terui
ABSTRACT The Japanese research vessel MIRAI sailed into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from 4 to 25 November 2018 to study the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice of the Chukchi Sea. Early winter dynamics and thermodynamics can cause sea ice conditions to change over short timescales. Heavy ice pressure may build up in the compression of compact ice. MIRAI is an ice-strengthened ship that has to avoid thick sea ice and areas of high sea ice coverage, and therefore precise medium-range forecast of sea ice distribution is key to its safe and efficient navigation. A high-resolution (about 2.5 km) coupled ice–ocean model was used to produce medium-range (10-day) forecasts for the expedition. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s atmospheric model high-resolution 10-day forecast was used as forcing data. Forecast skill is measured by ice edge error, which is the average distance between forecast and observed ice edges. Using a threshold of 15% sea ice concentration to indicate the ice edge, the maximum ice edge error in the ice–ocean coupled model in the Chukchi Sea is 16 km, indicating that the model is able to provide 10-day forecasts with sufficient accuracy for the vessel’s operation.
{"title":"Medium range sea ice prediction in support of Japanese research vessel MIRAI’s expedition cruise in 2018","authors":"Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath De Silva, J. Inoue, H. Yamaguchi, Takeshi Terui","doi":"10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707317","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Japanese research vessel MIRAI sailed into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from 4 to 25 November 2018 to study the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice of the Chukchi Sea. Early winter dynamics and thermodynamics can cause sea ice conditions to change over short timescales. Heavy ice pressure may build up in the compression of compact ice. MIRAI is an ice-strengthened ship that has to avoid thick sea ice and areas of high sea ice coverage, and therefore precise medium-range forecast of sea ice distribution is key to its safe and efficient navigation. A high-resolution (about 2.5 km) coupled ice–ocean model was used to produce medium-range (10-day) forecasts for the expedition. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s atmospheric model high-resolution 10-day forecast was used as forcing data. Forecast skill is measured by ice edge error, which is the average distance between forecast and observed ice edges. Using a threshold of 15% sea ice concentration to indicate the ice edge, the maximum ice edge error in the ice–ocean coupled model in the Chukchi Sea is 16 km, indicating that the model is able to provide 10-day forecasts with sufficient accuracy for the vessel’s operation.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":"126 1","pages":"223 - 239"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89175439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-03DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707320
Riina Haavisto, M. Lamers, R. Thoman, D. Liggett, Jorge Carrasco, J. Dawson, G. Ljubicic, E. Stewart
ABSTRACT Environmental conditions in Polar Regions are becoming more dynamic due to climate change. As sea ice melts, the range of human activities in Polar Regions are projected to increase, while weather conditions are becoming more extreme and unpredictable. Provision and use of weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information plays a key role in ensuring that polar activities are conducted as safely as possible and can contribute to a reduction of the environmental footprint of human activities. In this article, we explore the WWIC information provider landscape in a polar context, drawing on a database we compiled to characterize the diversity of providers. The database is built on available literature and on an extensive desk-based research of WWIC information provider websites. We analyse the 374 providers categorized by (a) institutional background (public vs private), (b) the position of the provider relative to activities in the WWIC information space, and (c) the users they serve. While governmental institutions have a strong presence in information provision, new types of providers are now entering the scene. Scientific actors seem to play a substantial role as users as well as major providers of WWIC information services.
{"title":"Mapping weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information providers in Polar Regions: who are they and who do they serve?","authors":"Riina Haavisto, M. Lamers, R. Thoman, D. Liggett, Jorge Carrasco, J. Dawson, G. Ljubicic, E. Stewart","doi":"10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707320","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Environmental conditions in Polar Regions are becoming more dynamic due to climate change. As sea ice melts, the range of human activities in Polar Regions are projected to increase, while weather conditions are becoming more extreme and unpredictable. Provision and use of weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information plays a key role in ensuring that polar activities are conducted as safely as possible and can contribute to a reduction of the environmental footprint of human activities. In this article, we explore the WWIC information provider landscape in a polar context, drawing on a database we compiled to characterize the diversity of providers. The database is built on available literature and on an extensive desk-based research of WWIC information provider websites. We analyse the 374 providers categorized by (a) institutional background (public vs private), (b) the position of the provider relative to activities in the WWIC information space, and (c) the users they serve. While governmental institutions have a strong presence in information provision, new types of providers are now entering the scene. Scientific actors seem to play a substantial role as users as well as major providers of WWIC information services.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":"79 1","pages":"120 - 138"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83321135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-03DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707316
T. Heleniak
ABSTRACT Projections of the future size, composition, and distribution of the populations of the Arctic states and regions are useful for policy makers in planning. This paper presents and analyzes the most recent population projections done for the Arctic states and regions. Global population growth is projected to continue increasing from the current total of 7.4 billion to 10 billion in 2055. The population of the Arctic, as defined here, is projected to have little change with a projected population increase of just 1%. However, there will be considerable variation in growth rates among Arctic regions. Alaska, Yukon, Nunavut, Iceland, Troms, the Khanty-Mansiy Okrug, and Chukotka are projected to have a substantial population increase of more than 10% over the projection period. Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug are projected to have more modest growth of between 5% and 10%. Kainuu in Finland, Karelia, Komi, Arkhangel’sk, Murmansk, and Magadan in Russia are projected to have population declines of more than 5%. Common trends seen in nearly all Arctic regions in the future are aging populations, more balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased population concentration into larger urban settlements, and the depopulation of smaller settlements.
对北极国家和地区未来人口规模、组成和分布的预测对政策制定者的规划非常有用。本文介绍并分析了北极国家和地区最新的人口预测。预计全球人口增长将从目前的74亿继续增长到2055年的100亿。按照这里的定义，北极地区的人口预计变化不大，预计人口仅增长1%。然而，北极地区之间的增长率将有相当大的差异。阿拉斯加、育空、努纳武特、冰岛、特罗姆斯、汉特-曼西地区和楚科奇预计在预测期内人口将大幅增长10%以上。Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia和涅涅茨自治区的增长率预计在5%到10%之间。芬兰的凯努、卡累利阿、科米、阿尔汉格尔斯克、摩尔曼斯克和俄罗斯的马加丹的人口预计将减少5%以上。未来几乎所有北极地区的共同趋势是人口老龄化、男女性别比例更加平衡、人口更多地集中到较大的城市定居点，以及较小的定居点人口减少。
{"title":"The future of the Arctic populations","authors":"T. Heleniak","doi":"10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707316","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Projections of the future size, composition, and distribution of the populations of the Arctic states and regions are useful for policy makers in planning. This paper presents and analyzes the most recent population projections done for the Arctic states and regions. Global population growth is projected to continue increasing from the current total of 7.4 billion to 10 billion in 2055. The population of the Arctic, as defined here, is projected to have little change with a projected population increase of just 1%. However, there will be considerable variation in growth rates among Arctic regions. Alaska, Yukon, Nunavut, Iceland, Troms, the Khanty-Mansiy Okrug, and Chukotka are projected to have a substantial population increase of more than 10% over the projection period. Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug are projected to have more modest growth of between 5% and 10%. Kainuu in Finland, Karelia, Komi, Arkhangel’sk, Murmansk, and Magadan in Russia are projected to have population declines of more than 5%. Common trends seen in nearly all Arctic regions in the future are aging populations, more balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased population concentration into larger urban settlements, and the depopulation of smaller settlements.","PeriodicalId":46164,"journal":{"name":"Polar Geography","volume":"62 1","pages":"136 - 152"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83992270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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