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The underlying causes of strategic surprise in EU foreign policy: a post-mortem investigation of the Arab uprisings and the Ukraine–Russia crisis of 2013/14 欧盟外交政策出现战略意外的根本原因:对2013/14年阿拉伯起义和乌克兰-俄罗斯危机的事后调查
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-11 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2140009
Nikki Ikani, Christoph O. Meyer
ABSTRACT The study of why and when governments are caught out by strategic surprise has been a major occupation of intelligence studies, international relations, public administration and crisis management studies. Still little is known, however, about the structural vulnerabilities to such surprises in international organisations such as the European Union (EU). EU institutions themselves have not undertaken rigorous investigations or public inquiries of recent strategic surprises, instead relying on internal review processes. In order to understand the most common underlying problems causing surprise in the EU context, this paper adapts and tests insights from the strategic surprise literature. It elaborates a theoretical framework with five hypotheses about why the leadership of EU institutions has been prone to being caught by surprises in foreign affairs: limitations in collection capacity, institutional fragmentation of policymaking, organisational culture, member state politicisation, and cognitive biases arising from collective ideas and norms. These hypotheses are tested using a post-mortem approach investigating two significant strategic surprises: the start and spread of the Arab uprisings of 2010/11 and Ukraine–Russia crisis of 2013/14.
对政府为何以及何时陷入战略意外的研究一直是情报研究、国际关系、公共行政和危机管理研究的一个主要领域。然而,对于欧盟(EU)等国际组织在这种意外情况下的结构性脆弱性,人们仍然知之甚少。欧盟机构本身并没有对最近的战略意外进行严格的调查或公开调查,而是依靠内部审查程序。为了了解在欧盟背景下导致突然性的最常见的潜在问题,本文对战略突然性文献的见解进行了改编和检验。它详细阐述了一个理论框架,其中包含五个假设,以解释为什么欧盟机构的领导层在外交事务中容易遭遇意外:收集能力的限制、政策制定的制度分裂、组织文化、成员国政治化,以及由集体观念和规范引起的认知偏见。这些假设是通过事后分析的方法来检验的,该方法调查了两个重大的战略意外事件:2010/11年阿拉伯起义的开始和蔓延,以及2013/14年乌克兰-俄罗斯危机。
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引用次数: 0
Contested statehood, complex sovereignty and the European Union's role in Kosovo 有争议的国家地位、复杂的主权和欧洲联盟在科索沃的作用
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2138350
Alexandros Lefteratos
ABSTRACT The emergence, longevity and resilience of contested states have redefined the relationship between sovereignty and territoriality. While fully-fledged states uphold the monopoly of authority, contested states seek to rewrite the sovereignty playbook and gain a seat among sovereign equals. This atypical antagonism, propped up by post-Westphalian statehood aspirations, has changed the way sovereignty is perceived and understood nowadays. Approaching sovereignty as multi-faceted, this article discusses contested statehood in the context of the EU's engagement overseas. Drawing on the literature of Europeanisation and complex sovereignty, it accounts for the influence of contested statehood on the EU's role and policies in contested states. Specifically, by delving into Kosovo's complex sovereignty (internal/external), the analysis measures the fluctuating impact of contestedness on the EU's employed policy frameworks and deployed crisis management tools unfolding a paradox that has defined the EU's foreign policy in Kosovo for years.
摘要有争议国家的出现、延续和恢复力重新定义了主权和领土之间的关系。当成熟的国家维护权威垄断时,有争议的国家则试图改写主权战术,在主权平等国家中获得一席之地。这种非典型的对抗,由后威斯特伐利亚州的愿望支撑,改变了当今人们对主权的看法和理解。本文将主权视为多方面的,讨论了欧盟在海外参与的背景下有争议的国家地位。它借鉴了欧洲化和复杂主权的文献,解释了有争议的国家地位对欧盟在有争议国家的作用和政策的影响。具体而言,通过深入研究科索沃复杂的主权(内部/外部),该分析衡量了争议对欧盟所采用的政策框架和部署的危机管理工具的波动影响,这一矛盾多年来一直定义着欧盟在科索沃的外交政策。
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引用次数: 0
Cooperating to contrôle: French senators as defence overseers and civil-military actors 与contrôle合作:法国参议员作为国防监督者和军民行动者
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-19 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2133564
Philippe Lagassé
ABSTRACT This article examines how the French Senate engaged in legislative oversight of the military between 2015 and 2020. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with French parliamentarians, parliamentary staff, and serving and retired military leaders, the article argues that the French Senate performed “community policing” oversight of the military during this period. This community policing approach, which relies on mutual trust and cooperation between the principal and the agent, allowed senators to oversee the military and check the executive at relatively low cost, while giving military leaders a parliamentary ally in their disagreements with the President and Cabinet. The article examines what conditions enabled and encouraged the French Senate to perform this type of oversight, as well as what civil–military dynamics led the French military to view senators as allies in their policy disagreements with the President. The article finds that the 2015 terrorist attacks on French soil played an important role in establishing closer ties between the upper house and the armed forces, with the Senate securing additional capabilities for the armed forces during this time. The article concludes with avenues for future research focusing on upper houses and legislative oversight of the military.
本文考察了法国参议院在2015年至2020年间如何对军队进行立法监督。根据对法国议员、议会工作人员、在职和退休军事领导人的半结构化采访,文章认为,法国参议院在这一时期对军队进行了“社区警务”监督。这种社区警务方式依赖于委托人和代理人之间的相互信任和合作,使参议员能够以相对较低的成本监督军队并检查行政部门,同时使军方领导人在与总统和内阁的分歧中成为议会盟友。本文考察了是什么条件促使和鼓励法国参议院进行这种监督,以及是什么军民动态导致法国军方在与总统的政策分歧中将参议员视为盟友。文章发现,2015年发生在法国土地上的恐怖袭击在建立上议院与武装部队之间的紧密联系方面发挥了重要作用,参议院在此期间为武装部队提供了额外的能力。文章最后提出了未来研究的途径,重点是上院和立法对军队的监督。
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引用次数: 0
Human security governance: the case of Syrians in Turkey 人类安全治理:以土耳其境内的叙利亚人为例
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-18 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2129967
Burak Tangör, Alpay Alpaydin
ABSTRACT This study examines the cooperation and coordination mechanisms established by Turkey, the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN) to ensure Syrians’ human security in Turkey. Focusing empirically on security governance processes and practices that have been applied to increase the human security of Syrians in Turkey since 2011. To this end, policies on burden sharing, freedom from fear, and freedom from want regarding Syrians in Turkey are presented. To identify the security needs of Syrians in Turkey and develop solutions adjusted to their needs, the UN and the EU cooperate with the public authorities in Turkey on policy-making processes and provide input for the institutionalisation of Turkey’s asylum system. This study argues that in theory, the actors, who set the security agenda, can create joint policies by focusing on human security and that in practice, this has produced policy implications regarding the human security of Syrians in Turkey.
本研究考察了土耳其、欧盟和联合国为确保叙利亚人在土耳其的人身安全而建立的合作与协调机制。从经验上关注自2011年以来用于提高土耳其境内叙利亚人人身安全的安全治理程序和做法。为此,对土耳其境内的叙利亚人提出了分担负担、免于恐惧和免于匮乏的政策。为了确定在土耳其的叙利亚人的安全需求,并根据他们的需求制定解决方案,联合国和欧盟与土耳其公共当局在决策过程中合作,并为土耳其庇护制度的制度化提供投入。本研究认为,从理论上讲,制定安全议程的行动者可以通过关注人类安全来制定联合政策,而在实践中,这已经对土耳其境内叙利亚人的人类安全产生了政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Dreams Lab: assembling knowledge security in Sino-Dutch research collaborations Dreams实验室:在中荷研究合作中整合知识安全
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-14 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2127317
D. Snetselaar
ABSTRACT Amid concerns over the rivalry between Washington and Beijing, the discourse and practice of knowledge security have become prevalent in Europe. This is especially true with regard to Sino-Western research collaborations on emerging technologies. Despite the scientific and economic benefits, these collaborations are increasingly perceived as a potential threat in the context of broader concerns with so-called hybrid threats. Knowledge security has emerged as a key term to identify and mitigate the risk of espionage, unwanted knowledge transfers, censorship, and the misuse of dual-use technology. To understand knowledge security and its implications, the article offers a qualitative, in-depth case study of Dreams Lab in the Netherlands: an AI research project run by the University of Amsterdam and the Free University of Amsterdam and funded by the Chinese company Huawei. Li’s practices of assemblage are used as an analytical framework to answer the question: how and why a diverse group of actors were brought together to respond to Dreams Lab and govern scientific knowledge on emerging technologies? By analysing the discourse and practice of knowledge security, the article offers crucial insights into how the great power rivalry is shaping scientific research and the international exchange of knowledge and technology.
在对华盛顿和北京之间竞争的担忧中,知识安全的话语和实践在欧洲变得普遍。在新兴技术的中西研究合作方面尤其如此。尽管这些合作具有科学和经济效益,但在对所谓混合威胁的更广泛关注的背景下,这些合作越来越被视为一种潜在威胁。知识安全已经成为识别和减轻间谍活动、不必要的知识转移、审查和滥用两用技术风险的关键术语。为了理解知识安全及其影响,本文对荷兰的梦想实验室进行了定性、深入的案例研究:这是一个由阿姆斯特丹大学和阿姆斯特丹自由大学运营、由中国公司华为资助的人工智能研究项目。李的组合实践被用作一个分析框架来回答这个问题:如何以及为什么一个不同的参与者群体被聚集在一起回应梦想实验室并管理新兴技术的科学知识?通过分析知识安全的话语和实践,本文对大国竞争如何影响科学研究和国际知识技术交流提供了重要见解。
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引用次数: 0
“My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies” and the elephant in NATO’s room “我的欧洲之行是关于美国团结世界民主国家”和北约房间里的大象
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-06 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2129966
C. Kollias, Panayiotis G. Tzeremes
ABSTRACT Using President Joe Biden’s opinion article published in The Washington Post ahead of the June 14, 2021 NATO Summit as a point of departure, the present paper examines how NATO members fare in terms of the core constituent elements of liberal democracy such as civil liberties and freedom of expression. To this effect, the paper uses three indices constructed and published by the Varieties of Democracy project. The Liberal democracy, Civil liberties and Freedom of expression indices. The results from club convergence analysis that covers the post-Cold War period, indicate the presence of different convergence clubs among NATO’s member-states and Turkey as the single divergent country. Moreover, given that many NATO countries are also EU members, the paper examines the comparative effect the dual NATO and EU membership had on the democratisation process of East European countries and Turkey. The findings suggest a statistically stronger impact of EU membership vis-à-vis NATO membership.
本文以拜登总统在2021年6月14日北约峰会前发表在《华盛顿邮报》上的观点文章为出发点,考察了北约成员国在公民自由和言论自由等自由民主核心构成要素方面的表现。为此,本文采用了民主多样性项目构建并公布的三个指标。自由民主、公民自由和言论自由指数。对后冷战时期的俱乐部趋同分析结果表明,北约成员国之间存在不同的趋同俱乐部,土耳其作为单一的分歧国家。此外,鉴于许多北约国家也是欧盟成员国,本文考察了北约和欧盟双重成员国身份对东欧国家和土耳其民主化进程的比较影响。研究结果表明,从统计上看,欧盟成员国身份对-à-vis北约成员国身份的影响更大。
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引用次数: 0
Jacob Kipp (1942–2021) Jacob Kipp(1942–2021)
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-20 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2124110
J. Mawdsley, Laura Chappell, Dimitris Bouris
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引用次数: 0
Norm localisation in the process of crafting national security strategies – the case of the Visegrád countries 制定国家安全战略过程中的规范本土化——Visegrád国家的案例
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-20 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2124370
M. Szalai
ABSTRACT The article describes the process of norm localisation in the security sector by analysing the context, format and functions of national security strategies published by the Visegrád countries between 1990 and 2020. After the end of the cold war, the “Europeanisation” of the security policy of Central European took place, which included the publication of Western-style national security strategies. Nevertheless, due to national and regional particularities, such documents serve specific political and communication functions, signifying that Visegrád states localised the practice of issuing national security strategies instead of merely copying them. This process led to the diminishing practical value of such documents at the expense of their communication role in terms of belonging and hedging. The article tracks these developments through the three waves of Central European national security strategies between 1990 and 2020 through the analysis of their political context, aims and specific attributes based on various criteria. Results of the research indicate that the functions of national security strategies varied in different stages of the norm localisation process, which questions the traditional method of comparing explicit strategies through content analysis.
本文通过分析1990年至2020年间Visegrád国家发布的国家安全战略的背景、格式和功能,描述了安全部门规范本土化的过程。冷战结束后,中欧安全政策出现“欧洲化”,包括发布西方式的国家安全战略。然而,由于国家和地区的特殊性,这些文件具有特定的政治和传播功能,这表明Visegrád国家将发布国家安全战略的做法本土化,而不仅仅是复制。这一过程导致这些文件的实际价值减少,而牺牲了它们在归属和对冲方面的传播作用。本文以各种标准为基础,通过分析中欧国家安全战略的政治背景、目标和具体属性,通过1990年至2020年间中欧国家安全战略的三次浪潮来追踪这些发展。研究结果表明,在规范本土化过程的不同阶段,国家安全战略的功能是不同的,这对传统的通过内容分析来比较显性战略的方法提出了质疑。
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引用次数: 1
From Finlandisation and post-Finlandisation to the end of Finlandisation? Finland’s road to a NATO application 从芬兰化和后芬兰化到芬兰化的终结?芬兰加入北约之路
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2113062
D. Arter
ABSTRACT Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 triggered a process that saw Finland abandon its traditional policy of military non-alignment and, together with Sweden, submit an application for NATO membership. Finland’s history of Finlandisation came up routinely in the parliamentary debates on a NATO application and there was a broad consensus that NATO membership would mark the end of Finlandised Finland. Accordingly, this article has a dual aim. First, it seeks to chart the main lines of post-war Finnish foreign and security policy since the late 1960s using Finlandisation and post-Finlandisation as the organising concepts. Second, it explores why, ultimately, Finland applied for NATO membership in May 2022. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it is suggested, engendered a psychosis of fear among the Finnish public, stirring collective memories of the loss of land, lives and livelihood at the hands of unprovoked Soviet aggression in the 1939–40 Winter War and the fear of history repeating itself at various tension points in Finno-Soviet relations thereafter. Strikingly, until 24 February a clear majority of politicians and the Finnish public opposed NATO membership.
普京在2022年2月24日对乌克兰的全面入侵引发了芬兰放弃其传统的军事不结盟政策,并与瑞典一起提交了加入北约的申请。芬兰的芬兰化历史在议会关于申请加入北约的辩论中经常被提及,人们普遍认为,加入北约将标志着芬兰化的终结。因此,本文具有双重目的。首先,它试图以芬兰化和后芬兰化作为组织概念,描绘自20世纪60年代末以来战后芬兰外交和安全政策的主要路线。其次,它探讨了为什么芬兰最终在2022年5月申请加入北约。有人认为,普京对乌克兰的入侵在芬兰公众中引发了一种恐惧的精神错乱,唤起了人们对1939年至1940年冬季战争中苏联无端侵略造成的土地、生命和生计损失的集体记忆,以及对历史在此后芬苏关系的各个紧张点重演的恐惧。引人注目的是,直到2月24日,绝大多数政治家和芬兰公众都反对加入北约。
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引用次数: 4
Producing knowledge about Eastern Europe in times of war: the case of Dutch media and the Second Karabakh war 在战争时期产生关于东欧的知识:荷兰媒体和第二次卡拉巴赫战争的案例
IF 1.6 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2022.2109414
A. Bayramov
ABSTRACT This article evaluates the presence of framing mechanisms in Dutch media reporting on the Second Karabakh war. The paper is led by the following questions: To what extent, and why, does the reporting of the Dutch press favour/undermine certain actors in the conflict? What kind of framing patterns are involved in generating such partiality? And did the frames change over the course of the war? In order to evaluate the presence of framing mechanisms in Dutch media reporting on the second Karabakh war, this research conducted a qualitative data analysis of 188 articles on the topic in nine major national Dutch news media. The paper finds that Dutch newspapers created a rather stereotypical, simplified picture of the Second Karabakh war. There are instances where the reporting gave the impression of a possible bias or overemphasis on certain dimensions.
本文评估了荷兰媒体在第二次卡拉巴赫战争报道中存在的框架机制。本文的主题是以下几个问题:荷兰媒体的报道在多大程度上支持/破坏冲突中的某些行为者?为什么?什么样的框架模式涉及到产生这种偏袒?在战争的过程中,框架是否发生了变化?为了评估荷兰媒体在第二次卡拉巴赫战争报道中存在的框架机制,本研究对荷兰九家主要国家新闻媒体上关于该主题的188篇文章进行了定性数据分析。论文发现,荷兰报纸对第二次卡拉巴赫战争的描述相当刻板、简化。有些情况下,报告给人的印象是可能存在偏见或过分强调某些方面。
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引用次数: 0
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European Security
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