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Estimating the Sequencing of Evacuation Destination and Accommodation Type in Hurricanes 飓风中疏散目的地和住宿类型排序的估计
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-09-26 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2018-0071
Abhishek Damera, Hemant Gehlot, S. Ukkusuri, Pamela M. Murray-Tuite, Y. Ge, Seungyoon Lee
Abstract Hurricanes are one of the most dangerous catastrophes faced by the USA. The associated life losses can be reduced by proper planning and estimation of evacuation demand by emergency planners. Traditional evacuation demand estimation involves a sequential process of estimating various decisions such as whether to evacuate or stay, evacuation destination, and accommodation type. The understanding of this sequence is not complete nor restricted to strict sequential ordering. For instance, it is not clear whether the evacuation destination decision is made before the accommodation type decision, or the accommodation type decision is made first or both are simultaneously made. In this paper, we develop a nested logit model to predict the relative ordering of evacuation destination and accommodation type that considers both sequential and simultaneous decision making. Household survey data from Hurricane Matthew is used for computing empirical results. Empirical results underscore the importance of developing a nested structure among various outcomes. In addition to variables related to risk perception and household characteristics, it is found that social networks also affect this decision-making process.
飓风是美国面临的最危险的灾难之一。应急计划人员可以通过适当的规划和估计疏散需求来减少相关的生命损失。传统的疏散需求评估包括一系列的决策评估过程,如疏散还是停留、疏散目的地和住宿类型。对这个序列的理解是不完整的,也不局限于严格的顺序排序。例如,不清楚疏散目的地的决定是在住宿类型决定之前做出的,还是先做出住宿类型决定,还是两者同时做出。在本文中,我们建立了一个嵌套的logit模型来预测疏散目的地和住宿类型的相对顺序,同时考虑顺序决策和同时决策。使用飓风马修的住户调查数据计算实证结果。实证结果强调了在各种结果之间建立嵌套结构的重要性。除了与风险认知和家庭特征相关的变量外,社会网络也会影响这一决策过程。
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引用次数: 7
Terri M. Adams and Leigh R. Anderson. Policing in Natural Disasters: Stress, Resilience, and the Challenges of Emergency Management 特里·m·亚当斯和利·r·安德森。自然灾害中的警务:压力、复原力和应急管理的挑战
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-07-10 DOI: 10.1515/JHSEM-2019-0023
William Peak
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering the Real Recovery Challenge: What Emergency Management Must Do 揭示真正的恢复挑战:应急管理必须做什么
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-07-04 DOI: 10.1515/JHSEM-2019-0024
R. McCreight, Wayne Harrop
Abstract Despite decades of genuine experience derived from major disasters, emergency exercises and expert reviews of crisis events in reports and after action summaries it seems we know far less about post disaster restoration and recovery than we should. This shortfall presents several challenges to public policy, governance and the practice of emergency management as the specific steps, requirements, connections, issues and interdependencies in resurrecting a severely damaged city goes far beyond cleanup and routine debris removal tasks. Approaches towards restoration and recovery differ between the USA and the UK but there is equal regard for deriving as much insight as possible from post disaster imperatives by deliberately exercising what is seldom examined – the raw details and demands of city and community recovery. One suggested avenue is to expand future emergency exercises by focusing on how better to understand and execute the variety of restoration and recovery activies needed and devote less energy to traditional emergency response measures. This would invite testing emergency management leaders and experts with demanding 'maximum of maximum' scenarios to analyze the depth, challenges and complexity involved.
尽管几十年来我们从重大灾害、应急演习和专家对危机事件的评估报告和行动总结中获得了真实的经验,但我们对灾后恢复和恢复的了解似乎远远少于我们应该知道的。这一短缺对公共政策、治理和应急管理实践提出了若干挑战,因为重建严重受损城市的具体步骤、要求、联系、问题和相互依存关系远远超出了清理和日常清理碎片的任务。美国和英国对重建和恢复的方法不同,但他们同样重视从灾后要务中获得尽可能多的洞察力,通过刻意练习很少被检查的东西——城市和社区恢复的原始细节和需求。一个建议的途径是扩大未来的应急演习,侧重于如何更好地理解和执行所需的各种恢复和恢复活动,减少对传统应急措施的投入。这将邀请测试应急管理领导和专家,要求“最大限度”的情景,分析所涉及的深度、挑战和复杂性。
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引用次数: 1
Deciding to Apply for Federal Disaster Assistance: A Preliminary Investigation of Disaster Decision-Making using a Bounded Rationality Framework 申请联邦灾害援助的决定:基于有限理性框架的灾害决策初步研究
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-06-28 DOI: 10.1515/JHSEM-2018-0039
Jason D. Rivera
Abstract Among disaster victims, the decision to apply for assistance with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is not straight forward. It is typically affected a variety of factors beyond individual demographic characteristics. Using Texas in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, this study utilizes bounded rationality as a theoretical framework for exploring what may affect the decision to apply for individual assistance with FEMA. A representative sample of generally affected individuals and a subsample of individuals with home damage are used to investigate various factors thought to be important in decision-making and compare differences between the groups. As a byproduct of the analysis, it is observed that although the loss of employment and being able to rely on one’s immediate network is a significant predictor of applying for aid among individuals with home damage, these variables are not significant among those that were generally affected. Recommendations for future research are provided to enhance our understanding of decision-making in the aftermath of disasters.
在灾民中,向联邦紧急事务管理局(FEMA)申请援助的决定并不是直截了当的。它通常受到除个人人口特征之外的各种因素的影响。本研究以飓风哈维过后的德克萨斯州为例,运用有限理性作为理论框架,探讨可能影响向联邦应急管理局申请个人援助决策的因素。一般受影响个体的代表性样本和家庭受损个体的子样本用于调查被认为对决策重要的各种因素,并比较两组之间的差异。作为分析的副产品,可以观察到,虽然失业和能够依赖一个直接的网络是房屋受损个人申请援助的重要预测因素,但这些变量在一般受影响的个人中并不显著。为未来的研究提供了建议,以提高我们对灾后决策的理解。
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引用次数: 8
Dynamic Ad Hoc Social Networks in Improvised Intelligence/Counter-Intelligence Exercises: A Department of Homeland Security Red-Team Blue-Team Live-Action Roleplay 动态特设社会网络在临时情报/反情报演习:国土安全部红队蓝队真人角色扮演
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-06-13 DOI: 10.1515/JHSEM-2018-0027
Kellen Myers, Ashley A. DeNegre, L. Gallos, Natalie J. Lemanski, Alexander Mayberry, Agnesa Redere, Samantha R Schwab, O. Stringham, N. Fefferman
Abstract We discuss a Red Team-Blue Team (RT-BT) study conducted to examine the formation and efficacy of social networks in self-organizing, ad hoc, or crowd-sourced intelligence and counter-intelligence operations in grassroots, improvised communities. Student volunteers were sorted into two teams: one team (Blue) was asked to find puzzle pieces using clues provided by the organizers, with the goal of reconstructing a message contained therein, while the opposing team (Red) was tasked with disrupting this process. While the Blue Team quickly organized into an efficient, centrally-governed structure, the Red Team instead adopted a decentralized, distributed operational network to hinder puzzle completion, using creative and diverse infiltration and disruption methods to interfere in the more centralized, hierarchical organization of their opponents. This exercise shows how untrained, unaffiliated individuals may self-organize into different types of social organizations to accomplish common tasks when aware of potential adversarial organizations, and how these choices may affect their efficacy in accomplishing collaborative clandestine goals.
摘要:我们讨论了一项红蓝团队(RT-BT)研究,该研究旨在研究社会网络在基层、临时社区中自组织、特设或众包情报和反情报行动中的形成和功效。学生志愿者被分成两组:一组(蓝色)被要求根据组织者提供的线索找到拼图,目标是重建其中包含的信息,而另一组(红色)的任务是破坏这一过程。当蓝队迅速组织成一个高效的、中央管理的结构时,红队却采用了一个分散的、分布式的操作网络来阻碍谜题的完成,他们使用创造性的、多样化的渗透和破坏方法来干扰对手更集中的、分层的组织。这个练习展示了当意识到潜在的敌对组织时,未经训练、没有隶属关系的个人如何自我组织成不同类型的社会组织来完成共同的任务,以及这些选择如何影响他们完成协作秘密目标的效率。
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引用次数: 0
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller. Are We Safe Enough? Measuring and Assessing Aviation Security Mark G. Stewart和John Mueller。我们足够安全吗?测量和评估航空安全
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-06-11 DOI: 10.1515/JHSEM-2018-0018
Mark C. Millett
17.5 billion dollars. Between the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) budget, government agency expenditures, and the estimated opportunity costs of the travelling public’s delays and damages, this is how much we as a country put into aviation security in fiscal year 2016. Where does this money go? Why does it cost so much? Are we safe enough? Most importantly, is this cost worth it? In JohnMueller andMarkG. Stewart’s newbook,Are We Safe Enough? Measuring and Assessing Aviation Security, the authors explore the nature of aviation security in the USA. They cite official government reports, stories from the media, and comparisons to other country’s version of our Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Transportation Security Administration (TSA). Using their consolidated data, they argue that “these considerations are particularly important because it certainly appears that avoiding overreaction is by far the most cost-effective counterterrorism measure.”1 The book attempts to determine the costs and benefits of transportation security spending, including those associated with potential changes to current screening methods. After defining the goals of the TSA and what constitutes a terrorist attack, the authors detail the 21 current layers of aviation security, breaking them down individually, and displaying how effective each layer is at deterring or disrupting a potential terrorist attack. They find that of the twomain terrorist threats, hijacking has approximately a 99.3% chance of being deterred or disrupted, and a passenger-borne bomb attack has a 98% chance of being deterred or disrupted. They conclude that “these levels of risk reduction are very robust” given the standard for acceptable risk.2 They further break down the cost of each layer. The authors use historical terrorist attack data from 1970 to the present as benchmarks for costs, both in lives and economic loss. This enables an analysis of costs that pertain specifically to aviation security. The authors compare the cost of each individual layer. They find that several layers, such as the hardened cockpit door and the Federal Flight Deck Officer program (FFDOs) are effective at preventing hijacking attacks at an exceptionally affordable cost. They also findmarginal cost-effectivemeasures – in regard to thwarting both hijackings and bombings – in the Visual Intermodal Protection Response (VIPR) teams, canine teams, and others. Some of the most expensive and cost-ineffective layers are found to be the Behavioral Detection Officers (BDOs) and the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), as neither layer has been found to adequately protect hijackings or bombing threats. Transportation Security Officers (TSOs) and their duties at checkpoints and as travel document checkers (considered two separate layers) were not found to be cost-effective, either. However, the authors praised the creation of TSA PreCheck, arguing it allows for more efficient screening of nearly half of the trav
175亿美元。这是美国运输安全管理局(TSA)的预算、政府机构的支出,以及旅行公众延误和损害的估计机会成本,这就是我们作为一个国家在2016财年投入航空安全的资金。这些钱去哪儿了?为什么这么贵?我们足够安全吗?最重要的是,这样做值得吗?约翰·米勒和马克·g。斯图尔特的新书《我们足够安全吗?》《测量与评估航空安全》,作者探讨了美国航空安全的本质。他们引用官方政府报告、媒体报道,以及与其他国家版本的美国国土安全部(DHS)和运输安全管理局(TSA)进行比较。根据他们的综合数据,他们认为“这些考虑特别重要,因为显然避免过度反应是迄今为止最具成本效益的反恐措施。”这本书试图确定运输安全支出的成本和收益,包括与当前筛选方法的潜在变化有关的成本和收益。在定义了TSA的目标和恐怖袭击的构成之后,作者详细介绍了目前航空安全的21层,逐个进行了分解,并展示了每层在阻止或破坏潜在恐怖袭击方面的效果。他们发现,在两种主要的恐怖主义威胁中,劫机被阻止或破坏的几率约为99.3%,而乘客携带的炸弹袭击被阻止或破坏的几率为98%。他们的结论是,考虑到可接受风险的标准,“这些风险降低水平是非常稳健的”他们进一步细分了每一层的成本。作者使用从1970年至今的历史恐怖袭击数据作为成本基准,包括生命和经济损失。这样就可以分析专门与航空保安有关的费用。作者比较了每一层的成本。他们发现,加固的驾驶舱门和联邦飞行甲板官员计划(FFDOs)等几层措施可以有效地防止劫机袭击,而且成本非常低。他们还在视觉联运保护反应(VIPR)小组、警犬小组和其他小组中发现了边际成本效益措施——在阻止劫机和爆炸方面。行为侦查官员(BDOs)和联邦空军元帅服务(FAMS)被认为是最昂贵和成本最低的人员,因为这两种人员都没有充分保护劫机或轰炸威胁。运输安全干事及其在检查站和作为旅行证件检查员(被认为是两个不同的层次)的职责也不具有成本效益。然而,作者赞扬了TSA PreCheck的创建,认为它可以对近一半的旅行公众进行更有效的检查,并对高风险乘客进行更深入的检查,从而使整体航空安全更加安全作者利用他们对BDO项目和FAMS的研究结果,主张改革或取消它们,以节省数亿美元。他们使用来自其他国家的数据来论证实施和扩展更便宜和更有效的选择,以应对整体安全性的感知损失,包括扩展高效FFDO计划和安装物理二次屏障(IPSBs),作为加固驾驶舱门缺陷的补充重点从保护客机转移到保护它们起飞的机场,因为情报显示,这些机场越来越成为恐怖分子的目标。使用相同的成本效益分析技术
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引用次数: 0
Promoting the Resilience of Older Adults Through Participatory Climate Change Adaptation Planning 通过参与式气候变化适应规划促进老年人的复原力
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-06-07 DOI: 10.1515/JHSEM-2017-0057
Jason Rhoades, James S. Gruber, Bill Horton
Abstract Despite older adults’ vulnerability to climate change, little research has investigated their preferred adaptation strategies. The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into their perspective and the potential for participatory adaptation to enhance their resilience. This paper presents the results of a collaborative adaptation planning process conducted with older adults in Bridgeport, Connecticut. During two meetings, older adult participants developed recommendations following adaptation best practices. Recommendations focused on encouraging preparedness through workshops and informational materials tailored for older adults. Additional recommendations focused on enhancing community services to provide effective warning mechanisms, shelter access, ride sharing and transportation assistance, and establishing a telephone based clearinghouse for extreme weather and emergency resources for older adults. A prioritization exercise showed that the participants and city staff believed all recommendations were potentially effective and feasible. A summative evaluation showed that the participatory planning enhanced resilience by raising awareness among the older adult participants and city agencies, enhancing communication, and increasing the older adult participants’ ability to self-advocate.
尽管老年人易受气候变化的影响,但很少有研究调查他们偏好的适应策略。本文的目的是深入了解他们的观点和参与式适应的潜力,以增强他们的复原力。本文介绍了在康涅狄格州布里奇波特市对老年人进行的协作适应规划过程的结果。在两次会议上,老年人与会者根据适应最佳做法提出了建议。建议的重点是通过为老年人量身定制的讲习班和信息材料鼓励做好准备。其他建议侧重于加强社区服务,以提供有效的预警机制、住所、拼车和交通援助,并为老年人建立一个以电话为基础的极端天气和应急资源交换中心。一项确定优先次序的工作表明,与会者和城市工作人员认为所有建议都可能有效和可行。总结性评价表明,参与式规划通过提高老年人参与者和城市机构的意识、加强沟通和提高老年人参与者的自我倡导能力来增强韧性。
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引用次数: 2
Implementing Disaster Policy: Exploring Scale and Measurement Schemes for Disaster Resilience 实施灾害政策:探索灾害恢复的规模和测量方案
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.1515/JHSEM-2018-0029
S. Cutter, S. Derakhshan
Abstract Resilience measurement continues to be a meeting ground between policy makers and academics. However, there are inherent limitations in measuring disaster resilience. For example, resilience indicators produced by FEMA and one produced by an independent academic group (BRIC) measure community resilience by defining and quantifying community resilience at a national level, but they each have a different conceptual model of the resilience concept. The FEMA approach focuses on measuring resilience capacity based on preparedness capabilities embodied in the National Preparedness Goals at state and county scales. BRIC examines community (spatially defined as county) components (or capitals) that influence resilience and provides a baseline of pre-existing resilience in places to enable periodic updates to measure resilience improvements. Using these two approaches as examples, this paper examines the differences and similarities in these two approaches in terms of the conceptual framing, data resolution, and representation and the resultant statistical and spatial differences in outcomes. Users of resilience measurement tools need to be keenly aware of the conceptual framing, input data, and geographic scale of any schema before implementation as these parameters can and do make a difference in the outcome even when they claim to be measuring the same concept.
弹性测量一直是政策制定者和学者之间的会议场所。然而,在衡量抗灾能力方面存在固有的局限性。例如,联邦应急管理局(FEMA)制定的复原力指标和一个独立学术团体(BRIC)制定的复原力指标通过在国家层面上定义和量化社区复原力来衡量社区复原力,但它们都有不同的复原力概念模型。联邦应急管理局的方法侧重于根据州和县两级国家准备目标中体现的准备能力来衡量恢复能力。金砖四国审查影响复原力的社区(在空间上定义为县)组成部分(或首都),并提供地方现有复原力的基线,以便定期更新以衡量复原力的改善情况。本文以这两种方法为例,探讨了这两种方法在概念框架、数据分辨率和表征方面的异同,以及由此产生的结果的统计和空间差异。弹性测量工具的用户需要在实施之前敏锐地意识到任何模式的概念框架、输入数据和地理范围,因为这些参数可以并且确实会对结果产生影响,即使他们声称测量的是相同的概念。
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引用次数: 24
Geospatial Preparedness: Empirical Study of Alternative Sources of Information for the Humanitarian Community 地理空间准备:人道主义社区替代信息来源的实证研究
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-05-29 DOI: 10.1515/JHSEM-2018-0046
R. San Martín, M. Painho
Abstract In response to a disaster, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs creates a framework for cooperation in which Information Management Officers from different organisations can work together to provide decision makers with necessary information. Geospatial data are among the first information delivered. Recently, online mapping, remote sensing and the support of volunteers and technical communities wrought dramatic changes in the use of geospatial information, bringing new challenges to the digital humanitarian community. Information Management Officers are tapping alternative data sources, and institutions are adapting their working procedures to this new reality. The perspectives of these Information Management Officers have been studied through semi-structured interviews and monitoring of the tools used during responses to real emergencies. This study determines the required data and the relation with geospatial preparedness. It also explores the potential and limitations of development organisations, community mapping and social networks as alternative sources of information.
在应对灾难时,联合国人道主义事务协调厅创建了一个合作框架,在这个框架中,来自不同组织的信息管理官员可以共同努力,为决策者提供必要的信息。地理空间数据是最先交付的信息之一。最近,在线地图、遥感以及志愿者和技术社区的支持使地理空间信息的使用发生了巨大变化,给数字人道主义界带来了新的挑战。信息管理官员正在利用其他数据来源,各机构正在调整其工作程序以适应这一新的现实。通过半结构化访谈和监测应对实际紧急情况时使用的工具,研究了这些信息管理干事的观点。本研究确定了所需数据及其与地理空间准备的关系。它还探讨了发展组织、社区地图和社会网络作为替代信息来源的潜力和局限性。
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引用次数: 4
Beyond ICS: How Should We Govern Complex Disasters in the United States? 超越ICS:我们应该如何管理美国的复杂灾害?
IF 0.8 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.1515/JHSEM-2018-0067
Branda Nowell, T. Steelman
Abstract The complexity of large-scale disasters requires governance structures that can integrate numerous responders quickly under often chaotic conditions. Complex disasters – by definition – span multiple jurisdictions and activate numerous response functions carried out by numerous legally autonomous public, nonprofit, and private actors. The command operating structure of the Incident Command System (ICS) is a hierarchical structure used to manage complex incidents. Increasingly, complex disasters are seen as networks of multiple actors. Improving our capacity to respond to large-scale, complex disasters requires moving beyond the “hierarchy versus networks” debate to understand the conditions under which governance structures can best serve disaster response goals. Understanding the capabilities and limitations of the governance structures embedded in our national policy tools and frameworks can enhance our ability to govern effectively in networked contexts. In this article, we suggest the need to shift focus to build greater capacity for hybrid and network governance approaches, including a more sophisticated understanding of the conditions under which these governance forms are most effective.
大规模灾害的复杂性要求治理结构能够在通常混乱的情况下快速整合众多响应者。复杂的灾难——顾名思义——跨越多个司法管辖区,并激活由众多合法自主的公共、非营利和私人行为者执行的众多响应功能。事件指挥系统(ICS)的指挥操作结构是一种用于管理复杂事件的分层结构。越来越多的复杂灾难被视为由多个参与者组成的网络。提高我们应对大规模、复杂灾害的能力需要超越“等级制度与网络”的争论,理解治理结构在哪些条件下能最好地服务于灾害响应目标。了解我们国家政策工具和框架中嵌入的治理结构的能力和局限性,可以增强我们在网络环境中有效治理的能力。在本文中,我们建议需要将重点转移到为混合和网络治理方法构建更大的能力,包括更复杂地理解这些治理形式最有效的条件。
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引用次数: 21
期刊
Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
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