Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management最新文献

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Economic Impacts of Spillover Effects of Terrorism Countermeasures at Public Assembly Sites 公共集会场所恐怖主义对策溢出效应的经济影响

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-11-04 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2020-0048

A. Rose, D. Wei, Katie Byrd, R. John

Abstract In recent years, there have been many high-profile attacks on large, relatively unprotected venues, including entertainment and shopping complexes in the U.S. and around the world. Public and private decision-makers can choose from a wide array of terrorism countermeasures. A question arises as to whether patrons’ complaints about delays, inconvenience and invasion of privacy actually translate into decisions to attend fewer such events. This paper presents the bottom-line economic impacts of terrorism countermeasures on business revenue at three public assembly venues and on their surrounding regional economic activity. These venues include an MLB Stadium, an NBA/NHL Arena, and a Convention Center. The analysis is based primarily on survey responses relating to changes in attendance that stem from public perception of the implementation of four major types of countermeasures. The surveys indicated that the majority of patrons were not affected either way by the presence of the countermeasures, but nearly all of the remainder felt more secure in the presence of the countermeasures to both terrorism and ordinary crime, which resulted in an increased likelihood of attendance. The economic impact estimates yield a small but notable positive impact on business revenues, though this outcome varies significantly across venue types.

近年来，美国和世界各地发生了多起针对大型、相对不受保护的场所的袭击事件，其中包括娱乐和购物中心。公共和私营部门的决策者可以从一系列广泛的恐怖主义对策中进行选择。一个问题是，顾客对延误、不便和侵犯隐私的抱怨是否真的转化为减少参加此类活动的决定。本文介绍了反恐对策对三个公共集会场所的营业收入及其周边区域经济活动的底线经济影响。这些场馆包括一个MLB体育场、一个NBA/NHL竞技场和一个会议中心。该分析主要基于与出席率变化有关的调查答复，这些变化源于公众对实施四种主要对策的看法。调查显示，大多数顾客都没有受到反制措施的影响，但几乎所有其余的人在面对恐怖主义和普通犯罪的反制措施时都感到更安全，这导致了出席的可能性增加。经济影响估计对业务收入产生了微小但显著的积极影响，尽管这种结果因场地类型而异。

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引用次数: 2

Examining the Potential Impacts of Social Vulnerability on Damage Levels in Areas Affected by Hurricane Harvey 研究受哈维飓风影响地区社会脆弱性对损害程度的潜在影响

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-09-22 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2020-0014

Hui-Peng Liew, Nathan T. Eidem

Abstract To our knowledge, this is one of the pioneering studies that examined the associations between changes in different dimensions of social vulnerability from 2000 to 2016 on damage levels resulting from Hurricane Harvey. The empirical work was based on data obtained from the FEMA Modeled Building Damage Assessments Harvey 20170829 and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR)’s Geospatial Research, Analysis & Services Program (GRASP). Results from linear mixed effects modeling and the spatial error and CAR models suggested that damage level was determined by certain aspects of social vulnerability; the level of damage increased with inundation depth, population aging, and the proportion of minority population. Efforts to promote resilience in natural disasters should focus on individuals living in areas characterized by increases in population aging and minority population. Results also revealed that certain processes associated with economic growth and urban development might affect an area’s resilience and susceptibility to natural disasters and the processes associated with disaster response and mitigation.

据我们所知，这是一项开创性的研究，研究了2000年至2016年社会脆弱性不同维度的变化与飓风哈维造成的破坏水平之间的关系。实证工作基于FEMA模拟建筑损害评估Harvey 20170829和有毒物质和疾病登记处(ATSDR)的地理空间研究、分析和服务计划(GRASP)获得的数据。线性混合效应模型、空间误差模型和CAR模型的结果表明，灾害程度由社会脆弱性的某些方面决定;破坏程度随淹没深度、人口老龄化和少数民族人口比例的增加而增加。提高自然灾害复原力的努力应侧重于生活在人口老龄化和少数民族人口增加的地区的个人。结果还表明，与经济增长和城市发展有关的某些进程可能影响一个地区对自然灾害的复原力和易感性，以及与灾害应对和减灾有关的进程。

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引用次数: 0

Incorporating Ethics in Disaster Communication Strategy: The Case of the U.S. Government in Deepwater Horizon 将伦理纳入灾难沟通策略:美国政府在深水地平线事件中的案例

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2020-0043

J. Horsley, Amber L. Hutchins

Abstract BP’s Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010 was a major test of the National Incident Management System (NIMS), which the United States federal government mandates for response to all disasters. At the time, this disaster was perhaps the greatest event in scope and duration under NIMS disaster management guidelines since they were revised in 2008 (the third edition was published in 2017). Ten years later, NIMS provides procedures for operating a joint information center (JIC), but still offers no guidelines for ethical communication. This case study examines the ethical implications of 178 news releases distributed by the Deepwater Horizon Incident JIC. Qualitative analysis found that communication was conducted in an open, ethical manner, with few exceptions. Conflicts emerged, however, that may have compromised ethical standards. The authors conclude with recommendations to inform ethical decision making by JIC communicators.

2010年4月英国石油公司深水地平线漏油事件是对国家事故管理系统(NIMS)的一次重大考验，NIMS是美国联邦政府授权应对所有灾难的系统。当时，根据2008年修订的NIMS灾害管理指南(第三版于2017年出版)，这场灾难可能是范围和持续时间最大的事件。十年后，NIMS提供了联合信息中心(JIC)的操作程序，但仍然没有提供道德沟通的指导方针。本案例研究考察了深水地平线事件JIC发布的178条新闻的伦理含义。定性分析发现，除了少数例外，沟通都是以公开、合乎道德的方式进行的。然而，冲突出现了，这可能损害了道德标准。作者最后提出建议，为JIC传播者的伦理决策提供信息。

引用次数: 0

The Hazard Consequence Prediction System: A Participatory Action Research Approach to Enhance Emergency Management. 灾害后果预测系统:加强应急管理的参与式行动研究方法。

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-09-16 eCollection Date: 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2021-0013

Austin Becker, Noah Hallisey, Ellis Kalaidjian, Peter Stempel, Pamela Rubinoff

Emergency managers (EMs) need nuanced data that contextualize the local-scale risks and impacts posed by major storm events (e.g. hurricanes and nor'easters). Traditional tools available to EMs, such as weather forecasts or storm surge predictions, do not provide actionable data regarding specific local concerns, such as access by emergency vehicles and potential communication disruptions. However, new storm models now have sufficient resolution to make informed emergency management at the local scale. This paper presents a Participatory Action Research (PAR) approach to capture critical infrastructure managers concerns about hurricanes and nor'easters in Providence, Rhode Island (USA). Using these data collection approach, concerns can be integrated into numerical storm models and used in emergency management to flag potential consequences in real time during the advance of a storm. This paper presents the methodology and results from a pilot project conducted for emergency managers and highlights implications for practice and future academic research.

应急管理人员需要细致入微的数据，以便了解重大风暴事件(例如飓风和飓风)造成的地方规模风险和影响。新兴市场可用的传统工具，如天气预报或风暴潮预测，不能提供有关当地具体关切问题的可操作数据，例如紧急车辆能否进入和潜在的通信中断。然而，新的风暴模型现在有足够的分辨率，可以在地方范围内进行明智的应急管理。本文提出了一种参与式行动研究(PAR)方法，以捕捉关键基础设施管理者对美国罗德岛州普罗维登斯市飓风和东北风的担忧。利用这些数据收集方法，可以将关注的问题整合到数值风暴模型中，并用于应急管理，在风暴发展期间实时标记潜在后果。本文介绍了为应急管理人员开展的试点项目的方法和结果，并强调了对实践和未来学术研究的影响。

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引用次数: 1

The Greening of Homeland Security 国土安全绿化

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-09-15 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2020-0080

Sefer Yılmaz

引用次数: 0

Stochastic Modeling of Non-linear Terrorism Dynamics 非线性恐怖主义动力学的随机建模

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2020-0029

Jakub Drmola, Tomáš Hubík

Abstract Modeling terrorism is both necessary and difficult. While the necessity comes from the all too obvious real-world pressures our society is facing, the difficulty stems from the underlying complexity of the phenomena itself – there are many variables to account for, they are hard to measure, and the relationships between them are confounding. Since modeling terrorism is at its most onerous when it comes to predicting specific attacks, their timing and scale, we opted to work around this using observed probabilistic distribution and integrate power laws into our system dynamics model. After evaluating thousands of simulations runs, this allows us to replicate historical data as well as produce prognostic scenarios, while maintaining what we believe to be authentic behavior. Compromises need to be made, but we believe that this approach can be useful for systems highly dependent on events or parameters which we are unable to predict but whose distributions are known.

恐怖主义建模既必要又困难。虽然必要性来自于我们社会所面临的实在太明显的现实压力，但困难源于现象本身的潜在复杂性——有许多变量需要解释，它们很难衡量，它们之间的关系令人困惑。由于在预测特定的攻击、时间和规模时，建模恐怖主义是最困难的，我们选择使用观察到的概率分布来解决这个问题，并将幂律集成到我们的系统动力学模型中。在评估了数千次模拟运行后，这使我们能够复制历史数据并产生预测场景，同时保持我们认为是真实的行为。需要做出妥协，但我们相信这种方法对于高度依赖于我们无法预测但其分布已知的事件或参数的系统是有用的。

引用次数: 0

What COVID Teaches Us About Homeland Security: How Not to be the Mouse COVID教给我们的关于国土安全的知识:如何不做老鼠

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2021-0010

Chappell Lawson

引用次数: 1

Reframing Risk in the Wake of COVID-19 2019冠状病毒病后重构风险

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2021-0009

C. C. Blackburn, Sayali Shelke, Sharon Zaldivar Alatorre

Abstract Concerns about infectious disease in mega-shelters following hurricanes should be a top priority. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the challenge of implementing standard evacuation and sheltering procedures for hurricanes during an outbreak of a respiratory disease and the lessons learned from the 2020 hurricane season must be applied to future response efforts. In this article, we examine the current risk framing for hurricane preparedness and response utilizing Prospect Theory. We also examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has complicated this traditional framing and offer a new framework for which to provide adequate sheltering following a hurricane, while minimizing the risk of respiratory disease to those seeking shelter. We argue that such a framework is necessary to protect American citizens in future hurricane seasons.

关注飓风过后大型避难所的传染病应该是当务之急。2019冠状病毒病大流行表明，在呼吸道疾病爆发期间实施标准的飓风疏散和庇护程序存在挑战，必须将2020年飓风季节的经验教训应用于未来的应对工作。在这篇文章中，我们利用前景理论研究当前飓风准备和响应的风险框架。我们还研究了COVID-19大流行如何使这一传统框架变得复杂，并提供了一个新的框架，在飓风过后提供适当的避难所，同时最大限度地减少寻求避难所的人患呼吸道疾病的风险。我们认为，这样一个框架是必要的，以保护美国公民在未来的飓风季节。

引用次数: 0

Access and Inclusion in Emergency Management Online Education: Challenges Exposed by the COVID-19 Pivot 应急管理在线教育的可及性和包容性:COVID-19支点带来的挑战

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-04-16 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2020-0074

Caroline S. Hackerott, Alyssa L. Provencio, Jenniffer M. Santos-Hernández

Abstract This paper reviews the extant literature on the development of online education within the discipline of emergency management and identifies areas exposed by the COVID-19 pivot needing further examination. We suggest utilizing a Scholarship of Teaching and Learning framework to identify best practices for responding to issues of access and inclusion.

摘要:本文回顾了应急管理学科在线教育发展的现有文献，并指出了新冠肺炎支点暴露出的需要进一步研究的领域。我们建议利用教学奖学金框架来确定应对准入和包容问题的最佳做法。

引用次数: 0

Best Practices and Lessons Learned from Community Engagement and Data Collection Strategies in Post-Hurricane Maria Puerto Rico 波多黎各玛丽亚飓风后社区参与和数据收集战略的最佳做法和经验教训

IF 0.8 4区管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Pub Date : 2021-04-12 DOI: 10.1515/jhsem-2020-0075

L. Saum-Manning

Abstract Communities have a vital role to play in managing the risks associated with natural disasters. As such, their strengths, weaknesses, and priority concerns must be factored into policy decisions to ensure local recovery efforts reflect community needs. Regular engagement with community members provides opportunities for emergency managers and first responders to tap into a reservoir of local knowledge to build a shared understanding of how to foster local preparedness and help communities reduce the impact of a disaster. Not all communities are alike; needs can differ for a variety of reasons and can help determine the best ways to galvanize an appropriate response. The methods of engagement should also be tailored to ensure communities are willing and able to participate in the types of interactions emergency managers wish to initiate. In this paper, we used a mixed method approach to examine several different community engagement and data collection strategies conducted, observed or examined by our research team during six months of post-Hurricane Maria recovery efforts in Puerto Rico from February to July 2018. The aim of this study is to assess whether different outreach approaches used illuminated different perceptions about disaster preparedness and recovery and to identify what works and what does not work when engaging communities in emergency preparedness and recovery activities.

社区在管理与自然灾害相关的风险方面发挥着至关重要的作用。因此，他们的优势、劣势和优先考虑的问题必须纳入政策决定，以确保当地的恢复工作反映社区的需求。与社区成员的定期接触为应急管理人员和急救人员提供了利用当地知识库的机会，从而就如何促进当地备灾和帮助社区减少灾害影响达成共识。并不是所有的社区都一样;需求可能因各种原因而有所不同，并有助于确定激发适当反应的最佳方式。还应调整参与方法，以确保社区愿意并能够参与应急管理人员希望发起的各种互动。在本文中，我们使用混合方法研究了几种不同的社区参与和数据收集策略，这些策略是我们的研究团队在2018年2月至7月波多黎各飓风玛丽亚后六个月的恢复工作中执行、观察或检查的。本研究的目的是评估所使用的不同外联方法是否阐明了对备灾和灾后恢复的不同看法，并确定在让社区参与应急准备和灾后恢复活动时，哪些有效，哪些无效。

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引用次数: 2

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Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

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