Metroeconomica最新文献

In a stock-flow consistent neo-Kaleckian macro-model, along with worker households' debt dynamics, we incorporate distributional dynamics and examine the dynamic stability of the economy in the long-run. Both wage-led and profit-led but a debt-burdened demand and growth regimes are possible in the short-run and the long-run. We show that the interaction between the debt and distributional dynamics may lead to instability in the economy. We find that a rise in the targeted profit share of firms or an increase in the bargaining power of firms vis-à-vis workers may cause a deterioration in functional income distribution. We show that a fall in animal spirits leads to a decline in functional income distribution vis-à-vis workers and may also lead to a fall in capital accumulation rate in the long-run.

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has recently received significant attention in academic and policy circles. Critics question the sustainability of MMT-prescribed approaches to fiscal and monetary policy, especially over extended periods of time, in the presence of international financial markets, and for developing country governments that borrow in foreign currency. I formalize some of these arguments using a dynamic, open economy, Tobin-Markowitz portfolio balance environment that takes into account: (1) the role of expectations in the foreign exchange market and the feedback mechanisms between these and the exchange rate and inflation, and (2) interactions between the current account, debt accumulation, and the goods market. I show that continuous monetary accommodation of fiscal policy by a consolidated authority that operates along MMT-prescribed lines is likely to generate instability and make it hard to maintain full employment with stable inflation. Importantly, this is true even in the absence of rational forward-looking expectations or sovereign foreign indebtedness.

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the Goodwin pattern. Building on the frequency domain representation of SVAR models, we calculate the extended partial directed coherence. This measure captures the contemporaneous effect from labor share onto economic activity. We illustrate the method with simulated data. Results for two-dimensional models with quarterly US data (1947Q1–2020Q1) between activity proxies (employment rate and output gap) and labor share indicate causal bi-directional relationships for short and medium run. We estimate an extended model in employment rate, output gap, and labor share, and sub-samples describing golden age and great moderation separately. Results indicate that the mechanisms underlying the Goodwin pattern have weakened in recent decades.

This paper provides evidence that external constraints determine growth slowdowns in middle-income countries. Econometric models corroborate a positive and significant relation between export margin and the growth of GDPpc for those countries that have remained between middle-income thresholds for at least 30 years, but not for others. While advanced economies have sustained their growth through permanent increases in productivity and the quality of products, many middle-income countries, most of them from Latin America, remain dependent on external prices for growth. Our results shed new light on old development challenges for developing countries.

We develop a medium-run dynamic model to investigate the effects of financial factors and production technique on a capitalist economy. We incorporate neoclassical elements and contributions of Keynes, Kalecki, and Minsky into the model. We formulate a price decision and endogenous money supply mechanism. The medium-run steady state is constrained by the normal capacity utilization rate. Moreover, the economy can become endogenously unstable if bank lending reacts excessively to the firm's profit rate. In a stable economy, an increase in the target-inflation rate increases the expected inflation rate and interbank rate but does not affect the optimal labor-capital ratio.

When considering a regional context, most adjusting mechanisms at work in open economy Stock-Flow Consistent models—such as exchange rate movements, or changes in interest on public debt—are not present, as they are in control of “external” authorities. So, how does a regional system with “current account” imbalances adjust? To answer this question, we adapt the framework suggested in Godley-Lavoie (2007a) to consider two regions that share the same monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies. The model—loosely calibrated over Italian data, with the introduction of a fragmented labour market—replicates some key features of the Italian economy, and sheds light on the interactions between financial and real markets in regional economies.

This paper aims to describe the process underlying the submission and acceptance of high quality papers to top journals via a model of asymmetric information. Researchers have the relevant information, namely the probability that the research paper will be recognised by the scientific community. The model predicts many empirical facts of modern publishing systems: top journals receive too many submissions; few published papers are recognised by the scientific community; risky papers benefit from imperfect information, and groundbreaking papers are more likely to be published than in the case of perfect information; the distribution of papers can be skewed to the right. An extension of the model that considers the reputation of researchers shows that researchers with low reputation may be precluded from publishing in top journals, so the scientific system may be against innovation fostered by young scholars. Monte Carlo simulations and real data are used to substantiate the paper's findings. Policy implications and Pareto efficiency are also discussed.

Inspired by the so-called polluter pays principle, environmental taxes can drive a more sustainable European market. However, unilateral mitigation measures can reduce the competitiveness of carbon-intensive industries, thereby inducing relocation. In this paper, we wonder whether a tax can effectively curb emissions without hurting firms. Our analysis's entry point is that the level of emissions in a region is jointly determined by (i) the number of consumers buying dirty goods and (ii) the environmental quality of these products. Thus, to curb emissions, on the one hand, firms have to reduce their goods' emissions intensity. On the other hand, consumers have to reduce the consumption of dirtier goods. This leads to defining a tax depending on the number of consumers buying the brown products and the relative quality of these products. We show that under this tax, lower emissions do not come at the expense of lower profits.

This paper explores, from a classical-Keynesian theoretical standpoint, how stagnating real wages may have contributed to the slowdown of US productivity. Through shift-share analysis, we find that after a sharp change in distribution against wages, some historically high-productivity sectors switched towards slower productivity growth. This supports our hypothesis that the anemic growth of productivity may be partly due to the trend toward massive use of cheap labor. Our estimation of Sylos Labini's productivity equation confirms the existence of two direct effects of wages, one acting through the incentive to mechanization and the other through the incentive to reorganize labor use.

The econophysics “two-class” approach yields a novel theoretical and empirically robust relation: The per capita income $��\bar{y}��\left(�x�\right)��$ of any bottom fraction (x) of the population equals a(x)∙(1−G) $��\bar{y}�$, where a(x) is a coupling coefficient, G the Gini, and $��\bar{y}�$ is national per capita income. For the bottom 70%, a(70) = 1, which yields the Sen inequality adjustment to the 1993 UNDP Human Development Index, without any reliance on social welfare functions. Alternately, a(80) = 1.1 yields the bottom 80% per capita income (Vast Majority Income). We propose the latter as a new inequality-adjusted measure of wellbeing.