Metroeconomica最新文献

Bank regulations affect the behaviour of credit and money creation; hence, they are essential for economic growth and stability. This paper develops an analytical model of the monetary circuit to show the macroeconomic effects of money creation under bank regulations. It describes the equilibrium in which banks create money in accordance with capital adequacy ratios or net stable funding ratios. This study reveals the equilibrium economic growth rate and debt level. In addition, this paper demonstrates how bank regulations influence firm capital structures, and the conditions for firms using debt and filing for bankruptcy. Results show that bank regulations can transfer risk from banks to firms. In fact, this study identifies a channel through which banks actively influence the macroeconomy through their money creation.

We analyze a network-based macroeconomic framework with the objective to analyze the effects that endogenous migration choices may have on the mutual relation between population dynamics and capital accumulation. In our economy population size determines the labor input which, together with the available capital stock, shapes total output. Production takes place with a convex-concave technology allowing for a poverty trap. Migration depends on the origin-destination income differential and affects the fertility rate. Thus population growth ultimately turns out to be endogenously dependent upon economic conditions. Such feedback effects between population and capital dynamics give rise to possible heterogeneity in the patterns of economic development, allowing to explain the large variability in the level of development between regions we generally observe at world level. We show that a higher degree of economic interaction improves economic outcomes at global level by allowing poor economies to escape their poverty trap, suggesting thus that promoting the formation of tight relations between countries may be an important policy option to favor economic development.

This paper incorporates a task-based approach into the Solow growth model to analyze the effects of automation on economic growth. We find that if task producers smoothly adopt automation technology along the capital accumulation path, sustained growth is possible even without technological progress. This result is brought about by the fact that task automation makes the aggregate production function linear. In addition, we demonstrate that both the rental price of capital and the wage are constant on the growth path. In sum, while the interaction between task automation and capital accumulation can be a pathway for sustained growth in output, it leads to the cease of wage growth in the long run.

This study introduces the partial identification of the structural vector autoregressive model to estimate the effect of income distribution on output. For this purpose, this study follows the Post-Keynesian growth models and identifies the demand regimes in Latin American countries for the period 1960–2014. The main results reveal that Bolivia, Colombia, Honduras, and Panama have profit-led regimes. In addition, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Peru, and Uruguay have wage-led regimes. The regimes of Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, and Mexico could not be determined.

Can cost-reducing technical change lead to a fall in the long run rate of profit if class struggle manages to keep the rate of exploitation constant? In this paper, we derive three results that, taken together, answer this question in the affirmative. First, we identify three properties that new real wage bundles must satisfy to keep the rate of exploitation constant and lead to a falling rate of profit. Second, we derive sufficient conditions for existence of an infinite number of such real wage bundles. Third, we show that, if the initial real wage bundle is such that the maximum price-labor value ratio is larger than 1 plus the rate of exploitation, then starting from any configuration of technology, there always exists a viable, capital-using labour-saving technical change that satisfies the sufficient conditions of the previous result. These results vindicate Marx's claim that if the rate of exploitation remains unchanged then technical change in capitalist economies can lead to a fall in the long run rate of profit.

This paper contributes to the post-Keynesian literature by building a macrodynamic Kaleckian model that incorporates recent evidence on market concentration and its relationship with capital accumulation and income distribution using Schumpeterian insights. This is done in two steps. First, we model a two-dimensional system that sets the dynamics between the wage share and the capital-effective labor supply ratio. Then, we extend the model, in the second step, to a three-dimensional system that incorporates the state-transition function of concentration. Our model suggests that higher market concentration may be associated with a permanent decline in employment, capacity utilization, wage share, and capital accumulation.

A vertically related market with vertical product differentiation is used to analyze the impact of vertical cross-ownership on industry profit, consumer surplus and social welfare. With forward cross-ownership, we find that when the upstream firm holds the share of the low-quality downstream firm, the industry profit is increasing (decreasing) in the cross-ownership if the product quality difference is large (small). When the upstream firm holds the share of the high-quality downstream firm, the industry profit is increasing in the cross-ownership. The cross-ownership will lead to a higher consumer surplus and social welfare no matter the type of vertical cross-ownership. We also consider the scenario that the upstream firm holds the share of both downstream firms.

In this paper we present a model of economic growth with endogenous technical progress. We test if the neoclassical growth model accepts the assumption that capital intensity affects Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the long run. Our view takes inspiration from Kaldor's growth model of 1957 in which the Technical Progress Function (TPF) responds to the joint behavior of capital intensity and inventiveness. We find that “movements along a production function cannot be distinguished from shifts in this function” as formalized by the TPF. The model is tested using a Structural VAR for 17 advanced economies, over the period 1980–2020. On impact, when capital intensity improves, TFP increases sharply. This response is large and persistent over time and explains about half as much as of measured TFP. It confirms that capital intensity is an omitted variable in the traditional scheme used to estimate technical progress. Notably, the standard neoclassical growth model is not consistent with this evidence. Our analysis also shows that demand shocks can have permanent effects on output and unemployment. Finally, monetary policy helps to stabilize the business cycle, but loses its effectiveness in the long run.

This study examines the different types of technical change, as categorized by the productivity and cost criteria proposed by previous theoretical studies using data from the World Input–Output Database. The results confirm that in some sectors, the cost criteria are satisfied, but the productivity criteria are not. These technological changes are due to the very large labor input of imported intermediates and the higher monetary wage rate of the recipient country than that of the country supplying the imported intermediates. This study is a valid objection to previous theoretical studies.

We apply machine learning methods to the prediction of deterrence effects of tax audits. Based on tax declarations data, we predict the increase in future income declarations after being targeted by an audit. We find that flexible models, such as classification trees and ensemble methods based on them, outperform penalized linear models such as Lasso and ridge regression in predicting taxpayers more likely to increase their declarations after an audit. We show that despite the non-randomness of audits, their specific time structure and the distribution of changes in declared amounts suggest a causal interpretation of our results; that is, our approach detects a heterogeneity in the reaction to a tax audit, rather than just forecasting an unconditional future increase. We find that taxpayers identified by our model will on average increase their declared income by €14,461—the average among all audited taxpayers being €−205. Our approach allows the tax agency to yield significantly larger revenues by appropriately targeting tax audit.