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Hawks versus Doves: Who Leads American Foreign Policy in the US Congress? 鹰派与鸽派:谁在美国国会领导美国外交政策?
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orad025
W. Bendix, Gyung-Ho Jeong
The combination of partisan polarization and controversial military engagements has produced contentious debates over US foreign policy in Congress. Who has been winning these debates and exerting greater influence over the development of security and defense bills, hawkish or dovish legislators? The literature offers competing answers—on the one hand, arguing that hawks enjoy policy advantages because of Congress’s commitment to US hegemony and, on the other, claiming that doves gain policy openings because of shifting partisan and security conditions. To determine the influence of hawkish versus dovish legislators, we examine congressional actions on all defense spending bills from 1971 to 2016. Specifically, we track roll call votes to see which legislators enjoy the greatest support for their measures. We find that hawks have disproportionate influence over the content of defense bills, whether Republicans or Democrats are in control, and whether the United States is at war or enjoying relative peace.
党派两极分化和有争议的军事行动相结合,在国会引发了关于美国外交政策的有争议的辩论。鹰派还是鸽派立法者,谁赢得了这些辩论,并对安全和国防法案的制定施加了更大的影响?文献提供了相互竞争的答案——一方面,认为鹰派因为国会对美国霸权的承诺而享有政策优势,另一方面,声称鸽派因为党派和安全条件的变化而获得政策开放。为了确定鹰派与鸽派立法者的影响,我们研究了1971年至2016年国会对所有国防开支法案的行动。具体来说,我们跟踪唱名表决,看看哪些立法者的措施得到了最大的支持。我们发现,鹰派对国防法案的内容有着不成比例的影响,无论共和党人还是民主党人控制着国防法案,无论美国是处于战争状态还是享有相对和平。
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引用次数: 0
Do China’s Foreign Economic Ties Lead to Influence Abroad? New Evidence from Recent Events 中国的对外经济联系会影响到国外吗?来自近期事件的新证据
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orad016
Guan Wang, M. Pearson, Scott L. Kastner
Do China’s growing foreign economic ties translate into political influence abroad? We identify issues about which China cares deeply, and assess whether increased economic ties correlate with greater expressed support for Chinese activities on these issues. We collect new data to measure how countries have responded to China’s implementation of a National Security Law for Hong Kong, and recent policies in Xinjiang. We find that countries with closer economic linkages to China were less likely to criticize—and in some cases more likely to support—China’s actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, but the strength and significance of this effect vary considerably depending on the context and type of economic ties. Interestingly, the effects of China’s foreign economic ties are substantively smaller than levels of democracy and development. The findings call into question simple assumptions about the translation of economic ties into political influence, and suggest directions for future study.
中国日益增长的对外经济联系是否转化为海外政治影响力?我们确定了中国深切关注的问题,并评估经济联系的增加是否与对中国在这些问题上的活动的更多表达支持相关。我们收集新的数据来衡量各国对中国在香港实施《国家安全法》以及最近在新疆的政策的反应。我们发现,与中国经济联系更紧密的国家不太可能批评中国在香港和新疆的行动,在某些情况下更有可能支持中国的行动,但这种影响的强度和重要性因经济联系的背景和类型而有很大差异。有趣的是,中国对外经济联系的影响远远小于其民主和发展水平。这些发现对将经济联系转化为政治影响的简单假设提出了质疑,并为未来的研究指明了方向。
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引用次数: 0
The Political Economy of Peacekeeping: Civil–Military Resource Substitution through International Brokerage 维持和平的政治经济学:通过国际经纪实现军民资源替代
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orad014
N. Sakib, Md Muhibbur Rahman
What effects does participation in peacekeeping operations (PKO) have on the participating countries’ civil–military resource allocation? Answering this question can widen our understanding of state motivations to contribute to the United Nations PKOs by incorporating the civil–military dynamic. We argue that contributing states can substitute part of their domestic military expenditures with external resources. Governments act as brokers between domestic military interests and international sources of rent, a process which we call civil–military resource substitution through international brokerage. By doing so, governments can (i) reduce part of the bottom-up demands for increased military spending (i.e., salaries and allowances) and (ii) outsource critical resources to meet military organizational priorities (i.e., training, weapons, perks for the military elite, and so on). Using cross-national statistical analysis, we find that the UN PKO contributing states allocate fewer resources to the defense sector than the non-contributing states, and higher troop-contributing states are likely to allocate fewer resources to the defense sector than the lower-contributing or non-contributing states. The implications point to a much wider role of the UN peacekeeping missions than what is previously understood and demonstrate their impacts beyond the host countries.
参与维和行动对参与国的军民资源分配有什么影响?回答这个问题可以通过结合军民动态,拓宽我们对国家为联合国维和行动做出贡献的动机的理解。我们认为,派遣国可以用外部资源替代部分国内军事支出。政府充当国内军事利益和国际租金来源之间的中间人,我们称之为通过国际中间人进行军民资源替代的过程。通过这样做,政府可以(i)减少自下而上增加军费开支的部分需求(即工资和津贴),以及(ii)外包关键资源,以满足军事组织的优先事项(即训练、武器、军事精英津贴等)。通过跨国家统计分析,我们发现,联合国维和部队派遣国向国防部门分配的资源比未派遣国少,部队派遣国较多的国家向国防部门的资源可能比派遣国较少或未派遣国较少。这些影响表明,联合国维和特派团的作用比以前所理解的要广泛得多,并表明其影响超出了东道国。
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引用次数: 0
Ontological (in)Security and the Iran Nuclear Deal—Explaining Instability in US Foreign Policy Interests 本体论安全与伊朗核协议——解读美国外交政策利益的不稳定
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orad013
M. T. Rees
On July 14, 2015, under the leadership of the Obama administration, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—referred to as the Iran Nuclear Deal—was signed. After 35 years of diplomatic isolation, the agreement marked a watershed moment in the United States–Iran relations and achieved a key US national security objective regarding nuclear non-proliferation. However, the agreement faced significant domestic opposition grounded in concerns that Iran was untrustworthy. Yet, the prospect of withdrawal generated a sense of insecurity that the United States’s status as a “responsible world leader” would be undermined, despite ongoing anxieties around Iran’s compliance. What explains such a paradox in foreign policy preferences? By incorporating discursive institutionalist approaches with ontological security perspectives, I work to show how President Obama’s entry into the agreement generated ontological insecurities as he struggled to displace existing narratives around Iran as a hostile, untrustworthy actor. Yet, Iran’s compliance with the agreement made it equally difficult for Trump to justify withdrawal; instead, his efforts raised additional concerns that America’s international standing would be undermined. Theoretically, this paper incorporates discursive institutionalist insights with ontological security to disaggregate how different conceptions of the “Self” are contested and activated in policy debates in ways that lead to instability and variation in US foreign policy.
2015年7月14日,在奥巴马政府的领导下,《联合全面行动计划》(简称《伊核协议》)签署。在经历了35年的外交孤立之后,该协议标志着美伊关系的分水岭时刻,并实现了美国核不扩散的关键国家安全目标。然而,由于担心伊朗不可信,该协议遭到了国内的强烈反对。然而,撤军的前景产生了一种不安全感,即美国作为“负责任的世界领导人”的地位将受到损害,尽管人们一直对伊朗的遵守感到焦虑。是什么解释了外交政策偏好中的这种悖论?通过将散漫的制度主义方法与本体论安全视角相结合,我努力展示奥巴马总统加入该协议是如何产生本体论不安全感的,因为他努力取代现有的关于伊朗作为一个敌对、不可信的行为者的叙事。然而,伊朗对协议的遵守使特朗普同样难以证明撤军的正当性;相反,他的努力引发了更多的担忧,即美国的国际地位将受到损害。从理论上讲,本文将话语制度主义见解与本体论安全相结合,以分解不同的“自我”概念如何在政策辩论中受到质疑和激活,从而导致美国外交政策的不稳定和变化。
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引用次数: 0
The Lure of Technocracy? Chinese Aid and Local Preferences for Development Leadership in Africa 技术官僚的诱惑?中国援助与非洲发展领导的地方偏好
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orad010
Zhenqian Huang, Xun Cao
Should politicians, technocrats, or the free market guide the economic development of a developing country? The historical development paths of countries vary widely. Public opinion concerning development models also differs across space and over time. Using Chinese aid data from AidData and the second round Afrobarometer survey, we study how Chinese aid affects local preferences for economic leadership in sixteen African countries, 2000–2005. Our causal identification strategy is to compare the preferences of respondents who lived near an aid project site where a Chinese project had been implemented at the time of the interview (treated group) to individuals who lived close to a site where a Chinese project would be initiated shortly after the interview (control group). We find that Chinese aid increases the local population's support for economic experts to run the economy. World Bank aid, on the other hand, has no impact on local preferences for economic leadership.
政治家、技术官僚还是自由市场应该指导发展中国家的经济发展?各国的历史发展道路千差万别。公众对发展模式的看法也因空间和时间而异。利用来自AidData的中国援助数据和第二轮非洲晴雨表调查,我们研究了2000-2005年中国援助如何影响16个非洲国家的地方经济领导偏好。我们的因果识别策略是将访谈时居住在实施中国项目的援助项目现场附近的受访者(治疗组)与访谈后不久居住在启动中国项目的现场附近的个人(对照组)的偏好进行比较。我们发现,中国的援助增加了当地人民对经济专家管理经济的支持。另一方面,世界银行的援助对地方对经济领导人的偏好没有影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Soft Power Challenge, or an Opportunity? A Big Data Analysis on Chinese Soft Power during COVID-19 Pandemic 软实力的挑战还是机遇?新冠肺炎疫情下中国软实力大数据分析
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orad011
Yerin Kim, Byungjun Kim, Min Hyung Park, Woomin Nam, Jangil Kim
The Chinese government's rigorous efforts to enhance its soft power have confronted a major challenge during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to look at how the Chinese soft power changed throughout the pandemic using English news articles that covered China. The research took a data science approach to investigate the contents of articles using machine-learning-based sentiment analysis and Dirichlet-Multinomial Regression (DMR) analysis. The results show a gradual downturn in overall sentiment and that the topics related to political issues made the most significant impact. Nevertheless, the major increase in referencing Chinese social media implied that the sources of Chinese soft power have been diversified throughout the pandemic. In addition, this research has aimed to engage in major debates around soft power theory. Providing a multi-disciplinary approach for analyzing soft power, this research has tackled the difficulties in the quantitative conceptualization of soft power.
在新冠肺炎大流行期间,中国政府为增强软实力所做的严格努力面临着重大挑战。这项研究旨在通过报道中国的英文新闻文章来观察中国的软实力在整个疫情期间是如何变化的。这项研究采用了数据科学的方法,使用基于机器学习的情感分析和狄利克雷多项式回归(DMR)分析来调查文章的内容。结果显示,总体情绪逐渐下降,与政治问题相关的话题影响最大。尽管如此,提及中国社交媒体的人数大幅增加,这意味着在整个疫情期间,中国软实力的来源是多样化的。此外,本研究旨在围绕软实力理论展开重大辩论。本研究为分析软实力提供了一种多学科的方法,解决了软实力定量概念化的困难。
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引用次数: 0
Is a Free Trade Agreement More than Merely a Trade Policy? People's Preferences for Free Trade Agreements and the Security Factor 自由贸易协定不仅仅是一项贸易政策吗?人民对自由贸易协定的偏好与安全因素
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orad012
Taisuke Fujita
What determines people's preferences regarding trade policy? Existing studies have assumed that people consider trade policy merely trade politics; accordingly, these studies have focused on economic factors, such as benefits to individual or national welfare; ideational factors, such as xenophobia; or domestic political factors. This paper reveals that the international political factor of national security influences ordinary people's preferences for trade policy. While several studies have addressed the effect of the national security factor, they did not persuasively reveal the causal mechanism of the relationship between the national security factor and people's trade preferences. The present study conducted a factorial survey experiment to investigate the causal effect and the causal mechanism of the security factor on people's preferences regarding free trade agreements (FTAs). The results of the experiment conducted in Japan reveal that ordinary people consider the national security factor along the so-called realism path in forming their opinions regarding FTAs.
是什么决定了人们对贸易政策的偏好?现有研究认为,人们认为贸易政策仅仅是贸易政治;因此,这些研究集中在经济因素上,例如对个人或国家福利的好处;思想因素,如仇外心理;或国内政治因素。本文揭示了国家安全的国际政治因素影响着普通民众对贸易政策的偏好。虽然有几项研究涉及国家安全因素的影响,但它们并没有令人信服地揭示国家安全因素与人们贸易偏好之间关系的因果机制。本研究采用因子调查实验,考察了安全因素对人们对自由贸易协定偏好的因果效应和因果机制。在日本进行的实验结果表明,普通人在形成对自由贸易协定的看法时,沿着所谓的现实主义道路考虑国家安全因素。
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引用次数: 0
Building Bridges or Breaking Bonds? The Belt and Road Initiative and Foreign Aid Competition 搭建桥梁还是打破纽带?“一带一路”倡议与对外援助竞赛
2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orad015
Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati, Yuanxin Li, Samuel Brazys, Alexander Alexander Dukalskis
Abstract China’s renewed prominence is the most important development in international relations in the 21st century. Despite longstanding rhetoric of its own “peaceful rise”, China is increasingly viewed as a long-term strategic competitor, especially in the United States. Foreign aid is one arena where this competition may be playing out. While Western foreign aid principles have emphasized coordination and harmonization, the rise of China as a development partner has raised the specter of a return to competitive foreign aid practices. Most notably, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has received a wary reception by those who view it primarily as a geostrategic effort, but our knowledge of responses to the BRI is often anecdotal and fragmentary. To remedy this, we test if the BRI is inducing a competitive foreign aid response by evaluating if countries involved in this initiative are more likely to receive US support for loan packages from the major, Western, multilateral development banks (MDBs). Using an instrumental variable approach, covering 7,850 project/loan packages in 10 MDBs from 162 countries during 2013–2018 period, we find that the United States was more likely to vote for MDB packages to countries that have signed on to the BRI, but predominantly when the actual amount of Chinese aid flowing to those countries is still low, suggesting the United States is competing for “hedging” countries.
中国重新崛起是21世纪国际关系中最重要的发展。尽管长期以来一直宣称自己“和平崛起”,但中国越来越被视为一个长期的战略竞争对手,尤其是在美国。外援是这场竞争可能上演的一个舞台。虽然西方的对外援助原则强调协调与统一,但中国作为发展伙伴的崛起引发了对竞争性对外援助做法回归的担忧。最值得注意的是,中国的“一带一路”倡议(BRI)受到了那些将其主要视为地缘战略努力的人的谨慎对待,但我们对“一带一路”倡议的反应的了解往往是轶事和零碎的。为了解决这个问题,我们通过评估参与该倡议的国家是否更有可能获得美国对主要西方多边开发银行(mdb)贷款方案的支持,来测试“一带一路”倡议是否正在引发竞争性的外援反应。我们使用工具变量方法,研究了2013-2018年期间162个国家10个多边开发银行的7850个项目/贷款方案,发现美国更有可能投票支持已签署“一带一路”倡议的国家的多边开发银行方案,但主要是在中国向这些国家提供的实际援助金额仍然很低的情况下,这表明美国正在争夺“对冲”国家。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Actors as Human Rights Watchers: The Effects of Government Sexual Violence on Foreign Direct Investment 作为人权观察者的经济行为者:政府性暴力对外国直接投资的影响
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-20 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orad001
S. O. Adelaiye, Chhandosi Roy, Mehwish Sarwari
Do reports of sexual violence by state forces influence foreign direct investment? While studies have examined the impact of government human rights performance on FDI, how investors react to civilian victimization during wartime remains understudied. We investigate this with a focus on conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV). We argue that sexual violence by state governments results in the loss of FDI during conflict due to reputational and economic costs faced by foreign investors. With increasing international developments on CRSV, ties to governments that perpetrate sexual violence can be harmful to how the global community perceives foreign corporations. Moreover, government sexual violence signals that the government is relatively weaker than its opponent, creating uncertainties for foreign corporations regarding future investment opportunities in the host state. Analyzing sexual violence by government forces for all civil conflicts from 1989 to 2008, our findings show a decline in FDI as government sexual violence increases.
国家部队性暴力的报道是否影响外国直接投资?虽然有研究审查了政府人权表现对外国直接投资的影响,但投资者对战时平民受害的反应仍未得到充分研究。我们的调查重点是与冲突有关的性暴力(CRSV)。我们认为,由于外国投资者面临的声誉和经济成本,邦政府的性暴力导致冲突期间外国直接投资的损失。随着CRSV在国际上的日益发展,与实施性暴力的政府的联系可能会损害国际社会对外国公司的看法。此外,政府性暴力表明政府相对弱于对手,这给外国公司在东道国的未来投资机会带来了不确定性。通过对1989年至2008年所有国内冲突中政府军性暴力的分析,我们发现,随着政府性暴力的增加,外国直接投资有所下降。
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引用次数: 1
What (Who) Is Moderate Islam for? Malaysia's Ontological Security Seeking in the Post-September 11 Global Order 温和的伊斯兰教是为了什么(谁)?“9.11”后全球秩序下马来西亚的本体论安全寻求
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-20 DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orac040
Nicholas Chan
The popular yet ambiguous idea of moderate Islam has been treated with either interest or indifference in international relations. The interest hinges on hopes of Islamic reformism, whereas the indifference originates from a cynical view that sees moderate Islam campaigns as driven by political opportunism. These viewpoints conceptualize the idea of “moderate Islam” as exegetically rooted and seek to measure state actions based on that. This article argues that “Islamic” signifiers in the foreign policy narratives of Muslim states are better understood from the postcolonial subjectivities of their producers, who are most aware of uneven global cultural hierarchies. It demonstrates that elite Muslim narratives of moderate Islam are less about religious reformation as they are about ontological security seeking. This need for ontological security seeking by Muslim state elites stems from the historical stigmatization of Islam that is exacerbated by the Global War on Terror. Using the case of Malaysia, I highlight how discourses about moderate Islam in foreign policy operate through two mutually reinforcing discursive strategies: image building and image differentiation. Through historical and discourse analysis, I argue that both strategies contain a stigma-correction motive as they worked to craft this image of Malaysia being an exemplary “moderate” Muslim state.
在国际关系中,温和伊斯兰这个流行但模棱两可的概念要么被关注,要么被冷漠对待。这种兴趣取决于对伊斯兰改革主义的希望,而冷漠源于一种愤世嫉俗的观点,认为温和的伊斯兰运动是由政治机会主义驱动的。这些观点将“温和伊斯兰”的概念概念化,认为其根植于训诂学,并试图以此来衡量国家的行动。本文认为,穆斯林国家外交政策叙事中的“伊斯兰”能更好地从其生产者的后殖民主体性中理解,这些生产者最清楚全球文化等级的不平衡。这表明,精英穆斯林对温和伊斯兰教的叙述与其说是关于宗教改革,不如说是关于寻求本体论上的安全。穆斯林国家精英对本体论安全的追求源于伊斯兰教的历史污名,而全球反恐战争加剧了这一污名。以马来西亚为例,我强调了外交政策中关于温和伊斯兰教的话语是如何通过两种相互加强的话语策略来运作的:形象塑造和形象分化。通过历史和话语分析,我认为这两种策略都包含了纠正污名的动机,因为它们努力将马来西亚塑造成一个模范的“温和”穆斯林国家的形象。
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引用次数: 0
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Foreign Policy Analysis
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