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Financial inclusion and stock price synchronicity: A cross-country study 金融普惠与股价同步性:一项跨国研究
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101156
Thanh Ngo , Axel Grossmann
Using a sample of 142,313 firm-year observations across 38 countries from 2005 to 2022, we document a statistically significant negative association between financial inclusion and stock price synchronicity, consistent with a richer market informational environment. The results are robust to several approaches that mitigate endogeneity concerns and are not driven by developing countries. The relationship is more pronounced for firms with higher trading activity, in line with liquidity’s role in facilitating firm-level price discovery. Conversely, the result is weaker in industries dominated by a few large firms or where earnings strongly co-move. Further, the association is stronger in countries characterized by higher levels of uncertainty avoidance and masculinity, where investors tend to emphasize firm-specific information to reduce ambiguity or to gain informational advantages. In contrast, the relationship is weaker in high power distance cultures and in countries with stronger governance, where institutional mechanisms already promote limited herding and transparency.
利用2005年至2022年38个国家142,313个公司年的观察样本,我们证明了普惠金融与股价同同性之间存在统计学上显著的负相关关系,这与更丰富的市场信息环境相一致。结果对于缓解内生性问题的几种方法是可靠的,并且不是由发展中国家驱动的。这种关系对于交易活动较高的公司更为明显,这与流动性在促进公司层面价格发现方面的作用一致。相反,在由少数几家大公司主导的行业,或者在收益剧烈波动的行业,结果就比较弱。此外,在不确定性规避和男性化程度较高的国家,这种关联更强,投资者倾向于强调公司特定信息,以减少模糊性或获得信息优势。相比之下,在高权力距离文化和治理能力较强的国家,这种关系较弱,在这些国家,体制机制已经促进了有限的羊群效应和透明度。
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引用次数: 0
Testing axiomatizations of ambiguity aversion 测试歧义厌恶的公理化
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101134
Daniel L. Chen
The study of choice under uncertainty has advanced through key “paradoxes,” such as the Ellsberg paradox. We implement Machina’s (2014) three-outcome extension, in which four major ambiguity-aversion theories (multiple priors, rank-dependent, smooth ambiguity, variational) all predict indifference between two ambiguous acts. Contrary to these predictions, we find most participants do not express indifference. Our design elicits each subject’s certainty equivalent (CE) for an embedded 50–50 lottery and uses that CE in the Machina acts. Under lottery independence—i.e., if individuals apply standard (von Neumann–Morgenstern) expected utility to each objective lottery—these acts map to the same distribution of payoffs and thus should be evaluated identically. Yet we document a robust preference for one act over the other. This preference is associated with violations of lottery independence (e.g., Allais inconsistencies), as well as with disappointment aversion. Our results highlight that Machina’s three-outcome paradox is at least as much about failing independence over lotteries as it is about ambiguity aversion.
不确定性下的选择研究通过关键的“悖论”(如埃尔斯伯格悖论)取得了进展。我们实现了Machina(2014)的三结果扩展,其中四种主要的歧义厌恶理论(多先验、秩相关、平滑歧义、变分)都预测了两个歧义行为之间的冷漠。与这些预测相反,我们发现大多数参与者并没有表现出冷漠。我们的设计为嵌入的50-50彩票引发每个受试者的确定性当量(CE),并在机器行为中使用该CE。根据彩票独立性,即。,如果个人将标准(冯·诺伊曼-摩根斯特恩)期望效用应用于每个客观彩票——这些行为映射到相同的收益分布,因此应该得到相同的评估。然而,我们记录了对一种行为的强烈偏好。这种偏好与违反彩票独立性(例如,阿莱不一致)以及失望厌恶有关。我们的研究结果强调,Machina的三种结果悖论至少与彩票缺乏独立性有关,也与模糊性厌恶有关。
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引用次数: 0
Targeting, beliefs in own potential and subsequent investments: Theory and evidence from a framed field experiment 目标,对自己潜力的信念和随后的投资:理论和证据从一个有框架的现场实验
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101150
Elisa van Dongen , Robert Lensink , Mark Treurniet
While increased pressure on development finance budgets may require to reduce spending on anti-poverty transfers, new technical possibilities allow for more precise targeting. Yet, how targeting affects development outcomes remains an open question. We introduce a behavioral mechanism: if transfers are targeted to low-income individuals, recipients may interpret this as a signal of lacking earning potential, and consequently reduce investments. Using a framed field experiment in rural Uganda, we study how the targeting of anti-poverty transfers – compared to universal provision – affects subsequent investment behavior. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that targeted recipients reduce their investments, which may reduce their earnings.
虽然对发展融资预算的压力增加可能要求减少用于扶贫转移的支出,但新的技术可能性使更精确的目标成为可能。然而,目标如何影响发展成果仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。我们引入了一种行为机制:如果转移支付以低收入个人为目标,接受者可能会将其解读为缺乏收入潜力的信号,从而减少投资。通过在乌干达农村进行的有框架的实地实验,我们研究了与普遍提供相比,反贫困转移支付的目标如何影响随后的投资行为。与我们的假设一致,我们发现目标接受者减少了他们的投资,这可能会减少他们的收入。
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引用次数: 0
Financial literacy, robo-advising, and the demand for human financial advice: Evidence from Italy 金融知识、机器人咨询和对人类金融咨询的需求:来自意大利的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101125
David Aristei, Manuela Gallo
This paper investigates the influence of objective, subjective, and digital financial literacy on individuals’ propensity to utilise online services for automated financial advice. Exploiting microdata from the Bank of Italy’s 2023 Survey on Financial Literacy of Italian Adults, we find that individuals with greater objective financial literacy are less inclined to rely on robo-advisory services. Conversely, subjective and digital financial literacy enhance the likelihood of utilising robo-advisors. Behavioural factors, such as trust in financial innovation, the propensity to save and take risks, and engagement with digital financial services, also emerge as significant predictors of robo-advisory usage. Furthermore, we examine the interplay between robo-advising and different forms of human financial advice. While robo-advisory services appear to substitute for non-independent human advice, our results indicate a significant complementarity with independent professional advice. These findings underscore the importance of hybrid approaches in delivering financial advisory services.
本文调查了客观、主观和数字金融素养对个人倾向于利用在线服务进行自动化金融建议的影响。利用意大利银行2023年意大利成年人金融知识调查的微观数据,我们发现具有更高客观金融知识的个人不太倾向于依赖机器人咨询服务。相反,主观和数字金融知识提高了使用机器人顾问的可能性。行为因素,如对金融创新的信任、储蓄和冒险的倾向,以及与数字金融服务的接触,也成为机器人咨询使用的重要预测因素。此外,我们研究了机器人咨询和不同形式的人类财务建议之间的相互作用。虽然机器人咨询服务似乎取代了非独立的人类咨询,但我们的研究结果表明,它与独立的专业咨询具有重要的互补性。这些发现强调了混合方法在提供财务咨询服务方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
CEO overconfidence and payout policy: The moderating power of governance mechanisms CEO过度自信与薪酬政策:治理机制的调节作用
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101157
Artem Anilov, Irina Ivashkovskaya
This paper examines the moderating role of corporate governance in the relationship between Chief Executive Officer (CEO) overconfidence and corporate payout decisions. Using a panel dataset of 713 S&P 1500 firms from 2010 to 2019, we contribute to the behavioral corporate finance literature in several important ways. First, building on agency theory and upper echelons theory, we find that both external governance enhancements driven by the implementation of Dodd-Frank Act provisions, and internal governance mechanisms, including gender diversity and board independence mitigate the adverse effects of CEO overconfidence on cash dividends, while the moderating effects on share repurchases are less significant. For example, DF provisions attenuate the negative effect of overconfidence on dividend payouts by approximately one-third. Second, we uncover a context-dependent limitation: in innovative firms, governance mechanisms appear less effective in moderating overconfidence, suggesting that shareholders may tolerate or even encourage overconfident behavior to support risk-intensive innovation strategies. Lastly, our findings are robust across multiple measures of overconfidence and various estimation techniques, including instrumental variables, matching estimation, and staggered Difference-in-Differences. Overall, the results highlight the importance of tailoring governance frameworks to account for managerial behavioral traits, thereby enabling firms to harness the potential benefits of CEO overconfidence while safeguarding shareholder interests.
本文考察了公司治理在首席执行官过度自信与公司股利决策关系中的调节作用。利用2010年至2019年713家标准普尔1500指数公司的面板数据集,我们从几个重要方面为行为公司财务文献做出了贡献。首先,基于代理理论和上层理论,我们发现多德-弗兰克法案条款实施推动的外部治理增强和内部治理机制(包括性别多样性和董事会独立性)都缓解了CEO过度自信对现金股利的不利影响,而对股票回购的调节作用不太显著。例如,拨备将过度自信对派息的负面影响减弱了约三分之一。其次,我们发现了一个情境依赖的限制:在创新型公司中,治理机制在调节过度自信方面效果较差,这表明股东可能会容忍甚至鼓励过度自信的行为,以支持风险密集型创新战略。最后,我们的研究结果在多种过度自信测量和各种估计技术(包括工具变量、匹配估计和交错差中差)中都是稳健的。总体而言,研究结果强调了调整治理框架以解释管理行为特征的重要性,从而使公司能够在保护股东利益的同时利用CEO过度自信的潜在利益。
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引用次数: 0
Passing the torch: Second-generation successor involvement and ESG performance of family firms 传宗接代:家族企业第二代接班人参与与ESG绩效
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101160
Jie Gao , Kexin Yan , Qingmei Tan
As the initial stage of generational succession, second-generation successor involvement refers to successors entering the firm as non-core senior managers to gain operational experience and prepare for future leadership. This foundational step is vital for a smooth succession process. Using a sample of listed Chinese family firms from 2010 to 2023, this study shows that second-generation successor involvement significantly improves family firms’ ESG performance. However, this positive effect is attenuated when family members are heavily involved in strategic decision-making. Mechanism tests suggest that second-generation successor involvement enhances the preservation of extended socioemotional wealth and alleviates both type I and type II agency conflicts, thereby improving ESG performance. Further analysis reveals that the positive effect is more evident in the Social and Governance dimensions. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive effect is amplified for family firms in highly dynamic environments marked by substantial uncertainty, rapidly shifting opportunities, and persistent competitive threats.
第二代接班人参与是代际传承的初始阶段,是指继任者以非核心高级管理人员的身份进入企业,获取运营经验,为未来的领导做准备。这一基础性的步骤对于顺利的继任过程至关重要。本研究以2010 - 2023年中国上市家族企业为样本,发现第二代接班人参与显著提升了家族企业的ESG绩效。然而,当家庭成员大量参与战略决策时,这种积极影响就会减弱。机制检验表明,第二代接班人参与增强了外延社会情感财富的保存,缓解了I型和II型代理冲突,从而提高了ESG绩效。进一步分析表明,积极影响在社会和治理方面更为明显。异质性分析表明,在高度动态的环境中,家族企业的积极效应被放大,这些环境以大量的不确定性、快速变化的机会和持续的竞争威胁为特征。
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引用次数: 0
Do global bond market sentiments transmit to green bonds? Evidence from a quantile connectedness framework 全球债券市场的情绪会传导到绿色债券吗?来自分位数连通性框架的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101151
Rishman Jot Kaur Chahal , Hemant Bidasaria , Hera Asif Khan , Wasim Ahmad
Bond market sentiment plays a crucial role in shaping global financial interconnectedness; however, little is known about how sentiment-driven transmission operates across different market conditions and its influence on green bond (GB) markets. Using sentiment indicators from six major economies and global GB returns from 2015 to 2023, we explore a quantile VAR connectedness framework to capture the spillover across normal, bearish, and bullish quantiles. We find asymmetric connectedness across quantiles, with GBs acting as net transmitters in normal and bearish markets and becoming net receivers in bullish phases. There is strong evidence of dominant spillover effects, with the USA and China acting as net transmitters of sentiment shocks, while Japan emerges as a net receiver. From hedging perspective, GBs help reduce the portfolio risk by 27.74 % compared to an unhedged portfolio. Overall, the findings are useful for fund managers looking to invest in global markets and utilise the opportunity of GBs in conjunction with conventional bond markets.
债券市场情绪在塑造全球金融互联性方面发挥着至关重要的作用;然而,人们对情绪驱动的传导如何在不同的市场条件下运作及其对绿色债券市场的影响知之甚少。利用六个主要经济体的情绪指标和2015年至2023年的全球国债回报,我们探索了分位数VAR连通性框架,以捕捉正常、看跌和看涨分位数之间的溢出效应。我们发现分位数之间的不对称连通性,在正常和看跌市场中,gb充当净发射器,在看涨阶段成为净接收器。有强有力的证据表明,溢出效应占主导地位,美国和中国是情绪冲击的净传播者,而日本则是净接受者。从套期保值的角度来看,与未套期保值的投资组合相比,国债有助于降低投资组合风险27.74% %。总体而言,研究结果对寻求投资于全球市场、利用国债与传统债券市场结合的机会的基金经理很有帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Gambling on Bitcoin options? 赌比特币期权?
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101142
Matthew Flynn, Yifan Liu
Bitcoin options have rapidly emerged as a major derivatives market built on an underlying asset characterized by extreme volatility and high levels of speculation. This setting provides a natural environment to study how gambling related preferences influence investor behavior. Specifically, this study examines how state-level gambling propensity drives investor attention to Bitcoin options and affects market outcomes. Through the collection of Google Trends search volumes, we find that local gambling propensity significantly increases attention to Bitcoin options. Exploiting staggered sports betting legalization, we find low-friction gambling substitutes reduce Bitcoin option attention in high-gambling states, consistent with substitution among entertainment venues. Gambling propensity increases option volume, open interest, and preference for out-of-the-money contracts, while attention increases underlying Bitcoin volatility. These findings highlight distinct behavioral channels through which gambling motives and attention shocks influence Bitcoin options and spot markets.
比特币期权已经迅速成为一个主要的衍生品市场,它建立在一种以极端波动和高度投机为特征的基础资产上。这种设置为研究赌博相关偏好如何影响投资者行为提供了一个自然的环境。具体而言,本研究考察了国家层面的赌博倾向如何驱动投资者对比特币期权的关注并影响市场结果。通过收集谷歌Trends搜索量,我们发现本地赌博倾向显著增加了对比特币期权的关注。利用交错体育博彩合法化,我们发现低摩擦赌博替代品减少了高赌博状态下的比特币期权关注,这与娱乐场所之间的替代一致。赌博倾向增加了期权量、未平仓量和对场外合约的偏好,而注意力增加了潜在的比特币波动性。这些发现突出了赌博动机和注意力冲击影响比特币期权和现货市场的不同行为渠道。
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引用次数: 0
Biodiversity risk disclosures and stock price crash risk 生物多样性风险披露与股价崩盘风险
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101146
Donglai Ning, Yukihiro Yasuda
This study investigates whether biodiversity risk disclosures reduce stock price crash risk, leveraging the early adopter announcements of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) in January 2024. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we find that TNFD adoption significantly reduces crash risk. The effect is pronounced in firms with high biodiversity exposure, strong governance, and high retail investor presence, consistent with risk-materiality, agency problem, and behavioral channels, respectively. We further show that TNFD provides incremental crash-risk reduction for firms that had previously adopted the framework of the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), with benefits strongest among early TCFD adopters. Overall, our findings highlight the value of nature-related disclosures in enhancing transparency and mitigating downside risk, offering timely insights for regulators and investors as biodiversity reporting frameworks continue to evolve.
本研究利用自然相关财务披露工作组(TNFD)于2024年1月发布的早期采用率公告,调查生物多样性风险披露是否会降低股价崩盘风险。使用差异中的差异框架,我们发现采用TNFD显著降低了崩溃风险。这种效应在生物多样性敞口高、治理能力强、散户投资者比例高的公司中表现明显,分别与风险重要性、代理问题和行为渠道相一致。我们进一步表明,TNFD为以前采用气候相关财务披露工作组(TCFD)框架的公司提供了渐进的崩溃风险降低,在早期采用TCFD的公司中获益最大。总体而言,我们的研究结果强调了与自然相关的信息披露在提高透明度和降低下行风险方面的价值,并在生物多样性报告框架不断发展的同时,为监管机构和投资者提供了及时的见解。
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引用次数: 0
How individuals use generative AI for personal financial management 个人如何使用生成式人工智能进行个人财务管理
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101145
Tae-Young Pak
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of how individuals use large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT for everyday financial management. Using survey data from 2170 Korean adults aged 25–59, this study examines the breadth and depth of LLM use across ten domains of personal finance, including budgeting, savings, investment, tax filing, debt, insurance, housing, fraud detection, financial literacy, and psychological support. Results indicate that 67.8 % of respondents have used LLMs for at least one financial task, and 58.7 % have engaged with them across two or more domains. About 15 % reported using LLMs for all ten financial tasks, while 32.2 % indicated that they have never used LLM for financial purposes. The most common applications were stock investment (50.3 %), savings planning (48.2 %), budget management (47.6 %), and tax filing and planning (46.5 %). Usage was significantly higher among men, younger adults, those with higher education, and full-time workers, whereas differences by income, wealth, and home ownership were not significant. Individuals most often used LLM as an on-demand tutor - seeking explanations of terms, concepts, and processes - or as a search engine to retrieve targeted information and compare financial products, though some utilized it for personalized advice or even emotional support. Overall, this study shows that LLMs are already widely used in personal finance, though adoption varies across financial tasks and demographic groups.
这项研究提供了一个全面的分析,个人如何使用大型语言模型(llm),如ChatGPT的日常财务管理。通过对2170名年龄在25-59岁的韩国成年人的调查数据,本研究考察了法学硕士在个人理财的十个领域使用的广度和深度,包括预算、储蓄、投资、报税、债务、保险、住房、欺诈检测、金融知识和心理支持。结果表明,67.8% %的受访者在至少一项财务任务中使用法学硕士,58.7% %的受访者在两个或更多领域中使用法学硕士。大约15% %的人表示他们使用法学硕士来完成所有10项财务任务,而32.2% %的人表示他们从未将法学硕士用于财务目的。最常见的应用是股票投资(50.3% %)、储蓄计划(48.2% %)、预算管理(47.6% %)、税务申报和计划(46.5% %)。男性、年轻人、受过高等教育的人和全职工人的使用率明显更高,而收入、财富和房屋所有权的差异并不显著。个人通常将法学硕士作为按需导师——寻求术语、概念和流程的解释——或作为检索目标信息和比较金融产品的搜索引擎,尽管有些人利用它来获得个性化建议,甚至是情感支持。总的来说,这项研究表明,法学硕士已经在个人理财领域得到了广泛的应用,尽管在不同的金融任务和人口群体中,法学硕士的使用情况有所不同。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
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