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The dynamics of cryptocurrency market from behavioral finance perspective 行为金融学视角下的加密货币市场动态
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101126
Basma Almisshal, Halil İbrahim Bulut
This study constructs a Composite Investor Sentiment Index (CIST) integrating six behavioral and market-based proxies to examine how investor sentiment influences cryptocurrency returns and volatility. Using weekly data from March 2018-July 2023, we decompose sentiment into rational and irrational components via ARDL and analyze dynamic effects through VAR and impulse responses. The first principal component explains almost 70 % of total variance. Results show that rational sentiment exerts persistent, long-run effects on returns and volatility, while irrational sentiment causes short-lived volatility spikes. The findings advance behavioral finance by demonstrating that distinguishing cognitive from emotional investor reactions enhances understanding of cryptocurrency market behavior.
本研究构建了一个综合投资者情绪指数(CIST),整合了六个行为和市场代理,以检验投资者情绪如何影响加密货币的回报和波动性。利用2018年3月至2023年7月的周数据,通过ARDL将情绪分解为理性和非理性成分,并通过VAR和脉冲响应分析动态效应。第一个主成分解释了几乎70% %的总方差。结果表明,理性情绪对收益和波动产生持续的、长期的影响,而非理性情绪导致短期波动峰值。研究结果表明,区分投资者的认知反应和情绪反应可以增强对加密货币市场行为的理解,从而推动了行为金融学的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Racial differences in expected stock market performance and stock ownership 预期股市表现与持股的种族差异
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101133
Ann Marie Hibbert , Shanxiang Yang
There are significant racial differences in expectations regarding future stock market performance. Using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations from 2013 to 2022, we find that, relative to White Americans, Black and Hispanic Americans have lower probabilistic expectations that the stock market will increase. This racial gap in expectations was even larger during the recession caused by the Covid-19 epidemic, suggesting that economic uncertainty exacerbates this heterogeneity in expectations. Furthermore, we show that relative to White Americans, the likelihood and level of participation of Black and Hispanic Americans in the stock market are significantly more affected by their subjective beliefs about future market prices.
对未来股市表现的预期存在显著的种族差异。利用纽约联邦储备银行2013年至2022年消费者预期调查的数据,我们发现,相对于美国白人,黑人和西班牙裔美国人对股市上涨的预期概率较低。在新冠疫情造成的经济衰退期间,这种预期上的种族差距甚至更大,这表明经济的不确定性加剧了这种预期的异质性。此外,我们表明,相对于白人,黑人和西班牙裔美国人参与股票市场的可能性和水平明显更受他们对未来市场价格的主观信念的影响。
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引用次数: 0
CEOs, parenthood, and corporate misconduct 首席执行官,为人父母,公司不当行为
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101123
Han Donker , John Nofsinger , Corey A. Shank
This study examines whether CEOs’ personal experiences as parents influence corporate ethical behavior. Drawing on the female socialization hypothesis, we test whether the gender of a CEO’s children, particularly the firstborn, affects the likelihood and severity of corporate misconduct, measured through U.S. Department of Justice regulatory violations. Using a large panel of U.S. firms, we find that companies led by CEOs with daughters commit fewer regulatory violations and pay smaller fines, with the effect concentrated among those whose firstborn child is a daughter. Additional analyses show that the number of daughters further reduces misconduct, suggesting cumulative exposure reinforces ethical awareness. Overall, our results highlight how early and repeated exposure to daughters can shape executives’ moral and risk preferences, ultimately influencing corporate decision-making and reducing unethical behavior.
本研究考察ceo作为父母的个人经历是否会影响企业道德行为。根据女性社会化假说,我们测试了CEO子女的性别,特别是长子的性别,是否会影响公司不当行为的可能性和严重程度,通过美国司法部的监管违规来衡量。通过对大量美国公司的调查,我们发现,有女儿的ceo领导的公司违反监管规定的次数较少,缴纳的罚款也较少,这种影响主要集中在头胎是女儿的公司。另外的分析表明,女儿的数量进一步减少了不当行为,表明累积暴露会增强道德意识。总的来说,我们的研究结果强调了早期和反复接触女儿如何塑造高管的道德和风险偏好,最终影响公司决策并减少不道德行为。
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引用次数: 0
Anchoring on safe haven: Russia–Ukraine war effects on the cryptocurrency market 锚定安全港:俄乌战争对加密货币市场的影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101122
Ivilina Popova, Yifan Liu, Ha-Chin Yi
To investigate whether investors display anchoring bias when seeking safe havens during market downturns, we analyze the cryptocurrency market amid the Russia–Ukraine war. We find that as the conflict intensifies, demand for cryptocurrencies — particularly those previously recognized as safe havens during the COVID-19 pandemic — significantly increases. However, this surge in demand is accompanied by negative returns and heightened risk, indicating that investors might overestimate the safety of cryptocurrencies based on past performance. Moreover, we show that cryptocurrencies positively correlate with S&P 500 and gold during the conflict, diminishing their diversification benefits. Also, cryptocurrencies should not be regarded as safe haven assets for the U.S. dollar or crude oil during the war. These results suggest that investors anchor on historical safe haven attributes, fail to properly adjust their expectations with new information, and overlook the associated risks in volatile markets. The findings are robust to a placebo test, cannot be explained by crypto-based sanction circumvention, and are driven by a geopolitical risk channel. Our study underscores the risk management implications of anchoring bias and highlights the pervasive influence of behavioral biases in the cryptocurrency market.
为了调查投资者在市场低迷期间寻求避风港时是否表现出锚定偏见,我们分析了俄罗斯-乌克兰战争期间的加密货币市场。我们发现,随着冲突加剧,对加密货币的需求——尤其是那些在COVID-19大流行期间被认为是安全避风港的货币——显著增加。然而,这种需求激增伴随着负回报和高风险,这表明投资者可能会根据过去的表现高估加密货币的安全性。此外,我们表明,在冲突期间,加密货币与标准普尔500指数和黄金呈正相关,从而降低了它们的多元化效益。此外,加密货币不应被视为战争期间美元或原油的避险资产。这些结果表明,投资者锚定在历史避险属性上,未能根据新信息适当调整他们的预期,并且忽视了波动市场中的相关风险。这些发现在安慰剂测试中是稳健的,不能用基于加密的制裁规避来解释,并且是由地缘政治风险渠道驱动的。我们的研究强调了锚定偏差对风险管理的影响,并强调了行为偏差在加密货币市场中的普遍影响。
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引用次数: 0
Financial literacy, robo-advising, and the demand for human financial advice: Evidence from Italy 金融知识、机器人咨询和对人类金融咨询的需求:来自意大利的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101125
David Aristei, Manuela Gallo
This paper investigates the influence of objective, subjective, and digital financial literacy on individuals’ propensity to utilise online services for automated financial advice. Exploiting microdata from the Bank of Italy’s 2023 Survey on Financial Literacy of Italian Adults, we find that individuals with greater objective financial literacy are less inclined to rely on robo-advisory services. Conversely, subjective and digital financial literacy enhance the likelihood of utilising robo-advisors. Behavioural factors, such as trust in financial innovation, the propensity to save and take risks, and engagement with digital financial services, also emerge as significant predictors of robo-advisory usage. Furthermore, we examine the interplay between robo-advising and different forms of human financial advice. While robo-advisory services appear to substitute for non-independent human advice, our results indicate a significant complementarity with independent professional advice. These findings underscore the importance of hybrid approaches in delivering financial advisory services.
本文调查了客观、主观和数字金融素养对个人倾向于利用在线服务进行自动化金融建议的影响。利用意大利银行2023年意大利成年人金融知识调查的微观数据,我们发现具有更高客观金融知识的个人不太倾向于依赖机器人咨询服务。相反,主观和数字金融知识提高了使用机器人顾问的可能性。行为因素,如对金融创新的信任、储蓄和冒险的倾向,以及与数字金融服务的接触,也成为机器人咨询使用的重要预测因素。此外,我们研究了机器人咨询和不同形式的人类财务建议之间的相互作用。虽然机器人咨询服务似乎取代了非独立的人类咨询,但我们的研究结果表明,它与独立的专业咨询具有重要的互补性。这些发现强调了混合方法在提供财务咨询服务方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Do aggressive CFOs borrow short-term? 激进的首席财务官会短期借贷吗?
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101121
Yong Kyu Gam , Andy Kim Young Han , Junho Park , Hojong Shin
We study whether CFOs’ psychological traits affect debt maturity choices. Using facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as a proxy for achievement drive, we measure 2494 CFOs and 2408 CEOs from 1992 to 2020. Higher-CFO fWHR predicts significantly shorter debt maturity with larger number of lead managers in syndicated loans, while CEO fWHR has no effect. The relationship is strongest when rollover risk is high and is confirmed in loan-level analyses and survives difference-in-differences test around CFO turnovers. Short-term borrowing by high-fWHR CFOs is not value-destroying: markets react positively, distress risk declines, and these CFOs are more often promoted externally to CEO.
我们研究了财务总监的心理特征是否影响债务期限的选择。利用面部宽高比(fWHR)作为成就驱动的代理,我们测量了1992年至2020年的2494名cfo和2408名ceo。在银团贷款中,首席财务官fWHR越高,主经理人数越多,债务期限越短,而首席执行官fWHR则没有影响。当展期风险高时,这种关系最强,并在贷款水平分析中得到证实,并且在围绕首席财务官更替的差异检验中幸存下来。高whr首席财务官的短期借款不会破坏价值:市场反应积极,陷入困境的风险下降,这些首席财务官通常从外部晋升为首席执行官。
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引用次数: 0
Historical business traditions and stock price crash risk: Evidence from merchant guilds’ influence in China 历史商业传统与股价崩盘风险:来自中国商人公会影响的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101120
Hengyi Su , Jianbo Huang , Lingyun Chen
This study examines whether and how merchant guilds’ historical traditions affect the stock price crash risk of Chinese firms. Using a comprehensive sample of publicly traded companies in China from 2003 to 2019, we find that firms more affected by historical guild traditions have significantly higher crash risk. Mechanism tests show that these firms engage in relation-oriented financial activities—including transactions, guarantees, and loans with their related parties—which is coupled with less voluntary disclosure to external investors. Furthermore, the effect of historical guild tradition on crash risk is especially pronounced for companies with lower analyst coverage, lower institutional ownership, and those in regions with weaker local governance. Overall, this study illustrates that exclusive institutions such as merchant guilds can encourage relation-oriented behaviors and ultimately amplify stock price crash risk.
本研究探讨商会的历史传统是否及如何影响中国企业的股价崩盘风险。利用2003 - 2019年中国上市公司的综合样本,我们发现受历史行业传统影响更大的公司崩盘风险显著更高。机制测试表明,这些公司从事以关系为导向的金融活动,包括与其关联方的交易、担保和贷款,同时对外部投资者的自愿披露较少。此外,对于分析师覆盖率较低、机构所有权较低以及地方治理较弱的公司,历史公会传统对崩溃风险的影响尤为明显。综上所述,本研究表明商会等排外机构会鼓励关系导向行为,并最终放大股价崩盘风险。
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引用次数: 0
Conducting real-time interactive experiments online: A guide for researchers 在线进行实时互动实验:研究人员指南
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101118
Sarah Lynn Flecke , Sebastian Bachler
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift towards online behavioral experiments and the increased adoption of crowdsourcing platforms for participant recruitment. While conducting online studies has become more common, carrying out real-time interactive experiments online presents unique challenges. We provide an overview of existing tools for conducting interactive online experiments and discuss key considerations for setting up and running interactive online studies. We make special mention of the setup combination of studies programmed in oTree and carried out with Prolific samples, which has become popular in experimental and behavioral economics and finance research. Using a case study of a large multi-round experiment involving synchronous decision-making among groups of participants recruited via Prolific, we examine critical factors such as sample availability, participant arrival speed, traffic management, as well as dropout risks and mitigation approaches. We discuss strategies researchers can adopt and suggest areas for further investigation.
2019冠状病毒病大流行加速了向在线行为实验的转变,并越来越多地采用众包平台招募参与者。在进行在线研究变得越来越普遍的同时,进行在线实时互动实验提出了独特的挑战。我们提供了进行交互式在线实验的现有工具的概述,并讨论了建立和运行交互式在线研究的关键考虑因素。我们特别提到了在oTree中编程并使用多产样本进行研究的设置组合,这在实验和行为经济学和金融研究中已经很流行。通过一个大型多轮实验的案例研究,涉及通过多产招募的参与者群体之间的同步决策,我们检查了关键因素,如样本可用性,参与者到达速度,交通管理,以及辍学风险和缓解方法。我们讨论了研究人员可以采用的策略,并提出了进一步研究的领域。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond Performance: Exploring trade-offs in the design of financial algorithms 超越性能:探索金融算法设计中的权衡
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101119
Alexia Gaudeul , Caterina Giannetti
We investigate the trade-offs involved in encouraging the adoption of stock-trading algorithms. In a three-week artificial stock market experiment, investors experience trading both independently and with the help of a financial algorithm. They then decide whether to adopt the algorithm. Across treatments, we vary the algorithm by its trading strategy and whether its decisions can be overridden. Our findings show that adoption rates are generally low, but investors are more likely to adopt an algorithm that trades actively and that they can override. An investor’s trading style does not consistently affect algorithm take-up. Instead, adoption primarily depends on the relative success of a trader’s performance when trading independently vs when the algorithm was trading on their behalf. Analysis of an exit questionnaire matches those observations with the reasons given by individuals for rejecting or adopting a financial algorithm.
我们研究了鼓励采用股票交易算法所涉及的权衡。在为期三周的人工股市实验中,投资者既可以独立交易,也可以借助金融算法进行交易。然后他们决定是否采用该算法。在处理过程中,我们根据算法的交易策略以及它的决策是否可以被推翻来改变算法。我们的研究结果表明,采用率普遍较低,但投资者更有可能采用一种交易活跃且他们可以推翻的算法。投资者的交易风格并不总是影响算法的使用。相反,采用与否主要取决于交易员在独立交易与算法代表他们交易时的相对成功表现。对退出问卷的分析将这些观察结果与个人给出的拒绝或采用金融算法的原因相匹配。
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引用次数: 0
Investor attention and stock markets dynamics: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic 投资者关注和股市动态:来自COVID-19大流行的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101116
Ralph C. Verhoeks , Willem F.C. Verschoor , Remco C.J. Zwinkels
We examine the role of pandemic attention in stock market dynamics during the coronavirus pandemic. We show that the amount of attention paid to pandemic news is an important determinant of market dynamics, beyond health news. We find that pandemic attention asymmetrically influences stock market dynamics during the pandemic by negatively contributing to low returns and positively contributing to high returns. Second, pandemic numbers and news sentiment only affect stock returns if sufficient attention is paid to pandemic news. Third, pandemic attention is positively related to stock market volatility and comovement. Finally, we provide evidence that this higher comovement can be explained by limited attention: pandemic attention comes at the cost of attention paid to firm-specific news because investors apply category learning behavior and prioritize market-wide news.
我们研究了冠状病毒大流行期间大流行关注在股市动态中的作用。我们表明,对流行病新闻的关注程度是市场动态的一个重要决定因素,超出了健康新闻。我们发现,在大流行期间,大流行关注通过负向贡献低回报和正向贡献高回报来非对称地影响股市动态。其次,只有在对疫情新闻给予足够关注的情况下,疫情数字和新闻情绪才会影响股票回报。第三,疫情关注度与股市波动和变动呈正相关。最后,我们提供的证据表明,这种较高的共同性可以用有限的注意力来解释:由于投资者应用类别学习行为并优先考虑市场范围内的新闻,因此对流行病的关注是以对公司特定新闻的关注为代价的。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
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