Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance最新文献

This study builds on the seminal work of Tversky and Kahneman (1974), exploring the presence and extent of anchoring bias in forecasts generated by four Large Language Models (LLMs): GPT-4, Claude 2, Gemini Pro and GPT-3.5. In contrast to recent findings of advanced reasoning capabilities in LLMs, our randomised controlled trials reveal the presence of anchoring bias across all models: forecasts are significantly influenced by prior mention of high or low values. We examine two mitigation prompting strategies, ‘Chain of Thought’ and ‘ignore previous’, finding limited and varying degrees of effectiveness. Our results extend the anchoring bias research in finance beyond human decision-making to encompass LLMs, highlighting the importance of deliberate and informed prompting in AI forecasting in both ad hoc LLM use and in crafting few-shot examples.

This paper evaluates how Chinese stocks respond to the onboarding of China-focused ESG scores on the Bloomberg Professional Terminal in the short term. By utilizing the event study approach, we find that the top 10 % of ESG-rated stocks react significantly positively to the onboarding event, whereas the bottom 10 % of ESG-rated stocks experience significant and negative cumulative average abnormal returns. Moreover, this effect is asymmetric in that the negative returns have a greater and more prominent magnitude than the positive returns. By comparing the cross-sectional data results before and after the rating event, we propose several channels through which these effects may function. The findings of this study also have economic and policy implications for investors and policy-makers.

We explore the relationship dynamics between individual’s financial literacy and objective-oriented investment behaviour (OOIB) using the survey data from 686 investors in Pakistan. Drawing impetus from the social cognitive theory, we find that financial literacy significantly influences OOIB, which is subject to the individual’s belief in his/her capacity to manage their own investment portfolio (financial self-efficacy). However, we do not find the hypothesized moderating effect of financial risk attitude on the nexus between financial self-efficacy and OOIB. Our research indicates that factors such as gender, age, education, occupation, income level, and investment experience have a considerable impact on individual's confidence and risk-taking propensity in achieving financial goals. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and government bodies aiming to address financial concerns and develop prudent investment policies in an environment influenced by religious sentiments.

We use a unique dataset of pension participants in Turkey to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk questionnaire developed by the regulatory authority. Our analysis includes a reliability assessment (Cronbach’s $\alpha =0.73$) and a factor analysis that reveals two latent constructs: risk attitude and financial situation/literacy. Although both factors show a significant positive relationship with participants’ portfolio risk, the overall explanatory power remains low, with an $R^2$ of 0.134. Comparing these factors in terms of their contribution to predictive validity, we demonstrate that the risk attitude factor—formed from questions directly addressing financial risk-taking—exhibits significantly greater predictive power than the financial situation/literacy factor, which pertains to questions about the financial situation and self-assessed financial literacy. Our results imply that demographic factors like gender, education level, marital status, and age show weak predictive power for portfolio risk, suggesting that observed behavior in risky choices is more influenced by domain-specific attitudes.

The literature on impression management has identified three main types of graph manipulation: presentation enhancement, selectivity, and distortion. Nevertheless, no paper has analyzed the combined impact of all three techniques. Through an experiment involving 1701 certified public accountants, participants were exposed to graphs featuring all three manipulation techniques using distinct colors (blue, black, and red), all juxtaposed against graphs with no manipulation or a singular manipulation type. Our results show that selectivity alone has the same impact as distortion, selectivity, and presentation enhancement combined. Additional results demonstrate that the choice of color (blue versus red) in presentation enhancement, when combined with measurement distortion and selectivity, impact participants' perception differently. However, this effect is not observed when colorblind professionals are included.

In this paper, we conduct a stated-choice experiment with German retail investors to examine how labeling sustainability information as financially material or immaterial influences investment decisions. Results reveal a strong non-pecuniary preference for sustainability. However, emotional affect leads some investors to erroneously project sustainability information onto firms’ financial performance, regardless of financial materiality. When poor sustainability ratings are labeled as financially material, investors demand further an additional return premium, indicating a misinterpretation of these labels as financial indicators. This bias is particularly evident among investors who incorporate sustainability for pecuniary reasons in the experiment but do not use such information in real-life investing. Our findings suggest that while sustainability labels can guide investor behavior, they also risk distorting financial expectations. This underscores the need for careful design in sustainability disclosure practices and better investor education on the implications of sustainability information.

In times of crisis, such as global pandemics or conflicts, investors’ preference between green and conventional bonds may lean towards the latter due to increased risk aversion and a focus on short-term stability. However, some investors motivated by increased awareness of sustainability issues may maintain or increase their allocation to green bonds, seeing them as an opportunity for long-term resilience and sustainable investing. We use multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, wavelet coherence, and copula-based dependence analysis to examine the complex relationship between the $S\&P$ Green Bond Index and the $S\&P$ 500 Bond Index. The results indicate the presence of multifractal cross-correlations, the strength of which is most pronounced in times of crisis, especially in the post-COVID-19 period. The wavelet-based analysis also detects the COVID-19 break and shows significant interdependence at all frequency levels after the RU–UA conflict. The copula-based correlation values exhibit a distinct oscillating pattern over time, characterized by an initial break coinciding with the impact of COVID-19. In light of these findings on the impact of COVID-19 and the RU–UA conflict, we have included the Geopolitical Risk Index in our analysis to better understand how geopolitical tensions and conflicts influence the observed interdependence and to gain insight into how changes in the global risk environment affect both bond market dynamics. Overall, the results of this study provide insights into the interconnectedness between conventional and green bond markets and highlight potential spillover effects and systemic risks in an increasingly complex financial landscape.

This paper investigates the impact of agglomeration on the spillover effects of corporate environmental performance by exploiting quasi-natural experiments involving Million Dollar Plant (MDP) openings. Analyzing plant-level toxic emissions and pollution prevention data from the U.S., we find that large MDP openings prompt neighboring incumbent plants to emit more toxic chemicals compared to those from facilities in runner-up counties. Neighboring plants in winning counties also reduce their pollution control measures. Prior to the MDP events, we observe comparable trends in pollution emissions and balanced sample characteristics. Furthermore, the increase in toxic emissions is more pronounced in regions with lenient environmental regulations. The findings suggest that increased financial constraints, due to higher production costs from local agglomeration, may drive these negative environmental externalities.

This study examines the perspectives of corporate managers regarding corporate social responsibility (CSR), stakeholder interest management, firm performance, and their preferences in capital budgeting. It uses structural equation modelling (SEM) to test hypotheses. The analysis shows that capital budgeting serves as a mediator, diminishing the direct relationship between CSR and firm performance, and between the management of stakeholder interests and firm performance. The findings indicate that instrumental motives guide corporate managers in their capital budgeting decisions. The paper challenges perspectives that disproportionately emphasize the benevolent and moral dimensions of CSR, highlighting the significance of stakeholder interest management as a credible and essential business practice.

This study examines the link between the chairperson’s early-life epidemic experience and corporate social responsibility (CSR). Using Chinese A-share listed firms over the time period of 2010–2020, our findings indicate that (1) the chairperson’s early-life epidemic experience contributes significantly and positively to CSR, as evidenced by elevated levels of both internal CSR and external CSR. In a difference-in-differences setting using firms that undergo chairperson changes, we find that there are significant increases in overall CSR, internal CSR, and external CSR after the firm was taken over by chairpersons with higher level of early-life epidemic experience. The relationship between the chairperson’s early-life epidemic experience and CSR remains robust after a series of robustness checks. (2) the downside risk positively moderates the relationship between the chairperson’s early-life epidemic experience and CSR. (3) The results of the heterogeneity analysis indicate that the promotional effect of the chairperson’s early-life epidemic experience on CSR is notably significant for chairperson with longer tenure, and there is no significant difference in the impact of the medical resource level of the chairperson’s birthplace on the aforementioned relationship. These findings shed light on the crucial role of chairpersons’ past experiences, such as early-life epidemic exposure, in shaping CSR practices.