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Understanding sentiment shifts in central bank digital currencies 了解央行数字货币的情绪变化
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100988
This paper investigates the motivations behind Central Banks’ issuance of digital currencies (CBDC) and the associated risks, including potential misuse and distrust from international actors. Non-issuance of CBDC could hinder financial innovation, while issuance might introduce risks related to cybercriminality and misuse by rogue nations. This study balances these motives by assessing whether sentiment provides significant insights for policymakers and regulators. Utilising social media data, we analyse the impact of CBDC-related central bank releases, severe negative events, and contagion effects from traditional financial markets on CBDC sentiment. Our findings reveal that central bank announcements generally boost positive sentiment towards CBDCs through the provision of reassurance, whereas major geopolitical events trigger significant fluctuations in sentiment. The research highlights the critical role of sentiment analysis in understanding external influences on the development and implementation of CBDCs.
本文研究了中央银行发行数字货币(CBDC)背后的动机和相关风险,包括潜在的滥用和国际参与者的不信任。不发行 CBDC 可能会阻碍金融创新,而发行 CBDC 可能会带来与网络犯罪和流氓国家滥用有关的风险。本研究通过评估情绪是否能为政策制定者和监管者提供重要启示来平衡这些动机。利用社交媒体数据,我们分析了与 CBDC 相关的央行公告、严重负面事件以及传统金融市场的传染效应对 CBDC 情绪的影响。我们的研究结果表明,央行发布的公告一般会通过提供保证来提升对CBDC的积极情绪,而重大地缘政治事件则会引发情绪的大幅波动。这项研究强调了情绪分析在理解CBDC发展和实施的外部影响方面的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Is financial literacy a protection tool from online fraud in the digital era? 金融知识是数字时代防范网络欺诈的工具吗?
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100977

Cybercrime increased dramatically during the Covid-19 pandemic, when people’s online exposure rose significantly. In this paper, we analyze the relation between being a victim of online financial fraud and financial literacy, using representative Italian data collected in 2020. We find that basic financial knowledge is negatively associated with the probability of being defrauded online, while individuals who are overconfident about their level of financial literacy are more likely to fall victim to fraud. Moreover, those who were forced to work remotely because of the pandemic experienced a higher risk of fraud, that was reduced by financial literacy. Our findings suggest that financial literacy may provide protection against online fraud even in a context of high online exposure.

网络犯罪在 Covid-19 大流行期间急剧增加,当时人们的网络曝光率大幅上升。本文利用 2020 年收集的具有代表性的意大利数据,分析了成为网络金融欺诈受害者与金融知识之间的关系。我们发现,基本的金融知识与网上受骗的概率呈负相关,而对自己的金融知识水平过于自信的人更容易成为诈骗的受害者。此外,那些因大流行病而被迫远程工作的人遭遇欺诈的风险更高,而金融知识则降低了这一风险。我们的研究结果表明,即使在网上曝光率很高的情况下,金融素养也能提供防范网上欺诈的保护。
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引用次数: 0
Preferences for government regulation of pensions: What I want for myself and what I want for others 政府对养老金监管的偏好:我对自己的要求和对他人的要求
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100970

This paper analyzes how financial literacy and the perception of own eccentricity in pension preferences relates to citizens’ desire to make own choices or to delegate these to the government. It also considers how these factors relate to what regulation citizens want for their co-citizens, and to what extent the regulation they want for themselves relates to the regulation they want for others. We find that respondents with more financial knowledge want less government regulation. Furthermore, those that perceive themselves as having different preferences than the average population want less government regulation. The amount of regulation that respondents want for themselves is highly correlated with what they want for others. However, some respondents hold different preferences for themselves than for others. Specifically, those that want less government regulation for themselves and have more financial knowledge want, on average, more government regulation for others.

本文分析了金融知识和养老金偏好中对自身偏好的感知如何与公民自己做出选择或委托政府做出选择的愿望相关联。本文还探讨了这些因素与公民希望政府对其共同公民实施何种监管之间的关系,以及公民希望政府对其自身实施的监管与公民希望政府对他人实施的监管之间的关系。我们发现,拥有更多金融知识的受访者希望政府减少监管。此外,那些认为自己的偏好与普通人不同的人也希望政府减少监管。受访者对自己的监管要求与对他人的监管要求高度相关。然而,有些受访者对自己的偏好与对他人的偏好不同。具体而言,那些希望政府对自己的监管较少且拥有较多金融知识的受访者平均希望政府对他人的监管较多。
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引用次数: 0
The power of play in microfinance: Examining the effect of gamification on customer relationship management performance 小额信贷中游戏的力量:研究游戏化对客户关系管理绩效的影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100972

This study delves into the impact of gamification usage on the customer relationship management performance of microfinance platforms in China. Specifically, we systematically investigate the positive and negative perceptions influencing gamification adoption, which in turn affect satisfaction, customer engagement, and retention. Our results show that perceived benefit positively influences gamification usage intention, whereas perceived sacrifice exerts a negative impact. Furthermore, gamification usage intention correlates positively with satisfaction, customer engagement, and retention. Finally, the study highlights the positive relationships between satisfaction and customer engagement, as well as between customer engagement and retention. However, no significant relationship is observed between customer satisfaction and customer retention. These insights offer essential implications for enhancing user experiences and fostering customer loyalty.

本研究探讨了游戏化的使用对中国小额信贷平台客户关系管理绩效的影响。具体而言,我们系统地研究了影响游戏化采用的积极和消极感知,这些感知反过来又会影响满意度、客户参与度和留存率。研究结果表明,感知利益对游戏化使用意向有积极影响,而感知牺牲则有消极影响。此外,游戏化使用意向与满意度、客户参与度和保留率呈正相关。最后,研究强调了满意度和客户参与度之间以及客户参与度和保留率之间的正相关关系。然而,在客户满意度和客户保留率之间没有观察到明显的关系。这些见解为提升用户体验和培养客户忠诚度提供了重要启示。
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引用次数: 0
Human bias in AI models? Anchoring effects and mitigation strategies in large language models 人工智能模型中的人类偏见?大型语言模型中的锚定效应和缓解策略
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100971

This study builds on the seminal work of Tversky and Kahneman (1974), exploring the presence and extent of anchoring bias in forecasts generated by four Large Language Models (LLMs): GPT-4, Claude 2, Gemini Pro and GPT-3.5. In contrast to recent findings of advanced reasoning capabilities in LLMs, our randomised controlled trials reveal the presence of anchoring bias across all models: forecasts are significantly influenced by prior mention of high or low values. We examine two mitigation prompting strategies, ‘Chain of Thought’ and ‘ignore previous’, finding limited and varying degrees of effectiveness. Our results extend the anchoring bias research in finance beyond human decision-making to encompass LLMs, highlighting the importance of deliberate and informed prompting in AI forecasting in both ad hoc LLM use and in crafting few-shot examples.

本研究以 Tversky 和 Kahneman(1974 年)的开创性工作为基础,探讨了由四种大型语言模型(LLM)生成的预测中是否存在锚定偏差以及锚定偏差的程度:GPT-4、Claude 2、Gemini Pro 和 GPT-3.5。与最近关于 LLM 高级推理能力的研究结果相反,我们的随机对照试验揭示了所有模型都存在锚定偏差:预测会受到之前提到的高值或低值的显著影响。我们对 "思维链 "和 "忽略先前 "这两种缓解提示策略进行了研究,发现这两种策略的效果有限,而且程度不一。我们的研究结果将金融领域的锚定偏差研究从人类决策扩展到了 LLM,强调了在人工智能预测中,无论是在临时使用 LLM 还是在精心制作少数几个实例时,深思熟虑和知情提示的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Short-term market reactions to ESG ratings disclosures: An event study in the Chinese stock market 市场对ESG评级披露的短期反应:中国股市事件研究
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100975

This paper evaluates how Chinese stocks respond to the onboarding of China-focused ESG scores on the Bloomberg Professional Terminal in the short term. By utilizing the event study approach, we find that the top 10 % of ESG-rated stocks react significantly positively to the onboarding event, whereas the bottom 10 % of ESG-rated stocks experience significant and negative cumulative average abnormal returns. Moreover, this effect is asymmetric in that the negative returns have a greater and more prominent magnitude than the positive returns. By comparing the cross-sectional data results before and after the rating event, we propose several channels through which these effects may function. The findings of this study also have economic and policy implications for investors and policy-makers.

本文评估了中国股票如何在短期内对彭博专业终端上的中国ESG评分做出反应。通过使用事件研究法,我们发现ESG评级前10%的股票对入市事件的反应显著为正,而ESG评级后10%的股票的累计平均异常收益率显著为负。此外,这种效应是不对称的,因为负回报的幅度比正回报的幅度更大、更突出。通过比较评级事件前后的横截面数据结果,我们提出了这些效应可能发挥作用的几种渠道。本研究的结论对投资者和政策制定者也有经济和政策方面的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Financial literacy and investment behavior of individuals in Pakistan: Evidence from an Environment prone to religious sentiment 巴基斯坦个人的金融知识和投资行为:来自易受宗教情绪影响环境的证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100974

We explore the relationship dynamics between individual’s financial literacy and objective-oriented investment behaviour (OOIB) using the survey data from 686 investors in Pakistan. Drawing impetus from the social cognitive theory, we find that financial literacy significantly influences OOIB, which is subject to the individual’s belief in his/her capacity to manage their own investment portfolio (financial self-efficacy). However, we do not find the hypothesized moderating effect of financial risk attitude on the nexus between financial self-efficacy and OOIB. Our research indicates that factors such as gender, age, education, occupation, income level, and investment experience have a considerable impact on individual's confidence and risk-taking propensity in achieving financial goals. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and government bodies aiming to address financial concerns and develop prudent investment policies in an environment influenced by religious sentiments.

我们利用对巴基斯坦 686 名投资者的调查数据,探讨了个人金融素养与客观投资行为(OOIB)之间的动态关系。在社会认知理论的推动下,我们发现金融知识对客观投资行为有显著影响,而这取决于个人对自己管理投资组合能力的信念(金融自我效能)。然而,我们没有发现金融风险态度对金融自我效能感和 OOIB 之间关系的假设调节作用。我们的研究表明,性别、年龄、教育程度、职业、收入水平和投资经验等因素对个人实现财务目标的信心和风险承担倾向有相当大的影响。这些研究结果为政策制定者和政府机构在受宗教情绪影响的环境中解决财务问题和制定谨慎的投资政策提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Survey-based measures of risk attitudes and portfolio risk: Evidence from pension participants 基于调查的风险态度和投资组合风险测量方法:养老金参与者的证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100973

We use a unique dataset of pension participants in Turkey to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk questionnaire developed by the regulatory authority. Our analysis includes a reliability assessment (Cronbach’s α=0.73) and a factor analysis that reveals two latent constructs: risk attitude and financial situation/literacy. Although both factors show a significant positive relationship with participants’ portfolio risk, the overall explanatory power remains low, with an R2 of 0.134. Comparing these factors in terms of their contribution to predictive validity, we demonstrate that the risk attitude factor—formed from questions directly addressing financial risk-taking—exhibits significantly greater predictive power than the financial situation/literacy factor, which pertains to questions about the financial situation and self-assessed financial literacy. Our results imply that demographic factors like gender, education level, marital status, and age show weak predictive power for portfolio risk, suggesting that observed behavior in risky choices is more influenced by domain-specific attitudes.

我们利用土耳其养老金参与者的独特数据集来评估监管机构制定的风险问卷的有效性。我们的分析包括可靠性评估(Cronbach's α=0.73)和因子分析,后者揭示了两个潜在的结构:风险态度和财务状况/财务知识。虽然这两个因子与参与者的投资组合风险呈显著正相关,但总体解释力仍然较低,R2 为 0.134。通过比较这两个因子对预测有效性的贡献,我们发现风险态度因子(由直接涉及财务风险承担的问题形成)的预测能力明显高于财务状况/财务素养因子(与财务状况和自我评估的财务素养相关的问题)。我们的结果表明,性别、教育水平、婚姻状况和年龄等人口统计因素对投资组合风险的预测能力较弱,这表明观察到的风险选择行为更多地受到特定领域态度的影响。
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引用次数: 0
When enough is enough: The impact of combined graphical impression management on financial judgement 当 "够了 "就是 "够了":综合图形印象管理对财务判断的影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100969

The literature on impression management has identified three main types of graph manipulation: presentation enhancement, selectivity, and distortion. Nevertheless, no paper has analyzed the combined impact of all three techniques. Through an experiment involving 1701 certified public accountants, participants were exposed to graphs featuring all three manipulation techniques using distinct colors (blue, black, and red), all juxtaposed against graphs with no manipulation or a singular manipulation type. Our results show that selectivity alone has the same impact as distortion, selectivity, and presentation enhancement combined. Additional results demonstrate that the choice of color (blue versus red) in presentation enhancement, when combined with measurement distortion and selectivity, impact participants' perception differently. However, this effect is not observed when colorblind professionals are included.

关于印象管理的文献已经确定了三种主要的图表处理方式:增强呈现、选择性和扭曲。然而,还没有一篇论文分析过这三种手法的综合影响。通过一项涉及 1701 名注册会计师的实验,参与者接触到了使用三种不同颜色(蓝色、黑色和红色)的图形操纵技术,并将它们与没有操纵或只有一种操纵类型的图形并列。我们的结果表明,单独的选择性与扭曲、选择性和呈现增强的综合影响相同。其他结果表明,当测量失真和选择性相结合时,呈现增强中的颜色选择(蓝色与红色)会对参与者的感知产生不同的影响。然而,如果将色盲专业人员包括在内,则无法观察到这种影响。
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引用次数: 0
The confusion of taste and consumption: Evidence from a stated-choice experiment 口味与消费的混淆:来自陈述选择实验的证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100964

In this paper, we conduct a stated-choice experiment with German retail investors to examine how labeling sustainability information as financially material or immaterial influences investment decisions. Results reveal a strong non-pecuniary preference for sustainability. However, emotional affect leads some investors to erroneously project sustainability information onto firms’ financial performance, regardless of financial materiality. When poor sustainability ratings are labeled as financially material, investors demand further an additional return premium, indicating a misinterpretation of these labels as financial indicators. This bias is particularly evident among investors who incorporate sustainability for pecuniary reasons in the experiment but do not use such information in real-life investing. Our findings suggest that while sustainability labels can guide investor behavior, they also risk distorting financial expectations. This underscores the need for careful design in sustainability disclosure practices and better investor education on the implications of sustainability information.

在本文中,我们以德国散户投资者为对象进行了一项陈述选择实验,研究将可持续发展信息标注为财务上重要或不重要如何影响投资决策。结果显示,投资者对可持续发展具有强烈的非金钱偏好。然而,情感因素会导致一些投资者错误地将可持续发展信息投射到企业的财务业绩上,而不管财务是否重要。当差的可持续发展评级被贴上财务重要性的标签时,投资者会进一步要求额外的回报溢价,这表明他们将这些标签误解为财务指标。这种偏差在投资者中尤为明显,因为他们在实验中出于经济原因将可持续发展纳入考虑范围,但在实际投资中并不使用此类信息。我们的研究结果表明,虽然可持续发展标签可以引导投资者的行为,但它们也有扭曲财务预期的风险。这凸显了在可持续发展信息披露实践中精心设计的必要性,以及就可持续发展信息的影响开展更好的投资者教育的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
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