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Golden eye — How traders focus on and select information in experimental asset markets 黄金眼——交易者如何在实验性资产市场中关注和选择信息
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101138
Matthias Herrmann-Romero , Simon Liegl , Martin Angerer , Thomas Stöckl
In this study, we examine the subjective importance that traders attribute to specific information elements in experimental asset markets in two ways. First, using eye-tracking technology, we determine which given elements garner the most visual focus among traders. Second, we let traders actively choose a limited set of the given elements to determine which ones they deem important to have while trading. Our results indicate that the order book is the most important to traders, while the price chart is of low importance. There is only a conditional alignment between the elements that receive the most visual focus and those that traders select. Additionally, cognitive abilities play a non-trivial role in determining which information elements traders focus on. Finally, we find mixed evidence of a potential link between visual focus and trading performance.
在本研究中，我们通过两种方式考察了交易者在实验资产市场中对特定信息要素的主观重要性。首先，使用眼球追踪技术，我们确定哪些给定的元素在交易者中获得了最多的视觉焦点。其次，我们让交易者积极地选择一组有限的给定元素，以确定他们认为交易时重要的元素。我们的研究结果表明，订单对交易者来说是最重要的，而价格走势图的重要性较低。在获得最多视觉焦点的元素和交易者选择的元素之间只有条件对齐。此外，认知能力在决定交易者关注哪些信息元素方面起着重要作用。最后，我们发现了视觉焦点与交易绩效之间存在潜在联系的混合证据。
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引用次数: 0
Testing axiomatizations of ambiguity aversion 测试歧义厌恶的公理化
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101134
Daniel L. Chen
The study of choice under uncertainty has advanced through key “paradoxes,” such as the Ellsberg paradox. We implement Machina’s (2014) three-outcome extension, in which four major ambiguity-aversion theories (multiple priors, rank-dependent, smooth ambiguity, variational) all predict indifference between two ambiguous acts. Contrary to these predictions, we find most participants do not express indifference. Our design elicits each subject’s certainty equivalent (CE) for an embedded 50–50 lottery and uses that CE in the Machina acts. Under lottery independence—i.e., if individuals apply standard (von Neumann–Morgenstern) expected utility to each objective lottery—these acts map to the same distribution of payoffs and thus should be evaluated identically. Yet we document a robust preference for one act over the other. This preference is associated with violations of lottery independence (e.g., Allais inconsistencies), as well as with disappointment aversion. Our results highlight that Machina’s three-outcome paradox is at least as much about failing independence over lotteries as it is about ambiguity aversion.
不确定性下的选择研究通过关键的“悖论”（如埃尔斯伯格悖论）取得了进展。我们实现了Machina（2014）的三结果扩展，其中四种主要的歧义厌恶理论（多先验、秩相关、平滑歧义、变分）都预测了两个歧义行为之间的冷漠。与这些预测相反，我们发现大多数参与者并没有表现出冷漠。我们的设计为嵌入的50-50彩票引发每个受试者的确定性当量（CE），并在机器行为中使用该CE。根据彩票独立性，即。，如果个人将标准（冯·诺伊曼-摩根斯特恩）期望效用应用于每个客观彩票——这些行为映射到相同的收益分布，因此应该得到相同的评估。然而，我们记录了对一种行为的强烈偏好。这种偏好与违反彩票独立性（例如，阿莱不一致）以及失望厌恶有关。我们的研究结果强调，Machina的三种结果悖论至少与彩票缺乏独立性有关，也与模糊性厌恶有关。
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引用次数: 0
The dynamics of cryptocurrency market from behavioral finance perspective 行为金融学视角下的加密货币市场动态
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101126
Basma Almisshal, Halil İbrahim Bulut
This study constructs a Composite Investor Sentiment Index (CIST) integrating six behavioral and market-based proxies to examine how investor sentiment influences cryptocurrency returns and volatility. Using weekly data from March 2018-July 2023, we decompose sentiment into rational and irrational components via ARDL and analyze dynamic effects through VAR and impulse responses. The first principal component explains almost 70 % of total variance. Results show that rational sentiment exerts persistent, long-run effects on returns and volatility, while irrational sentiment causes short-lived volatility spikes. The findings advance behavioral finance by demonstrating that distinguishing cognitive from emotional investor reactions enhances understanding of cryptocurrency market behavior.
本研究构建了一个综合投资者情绪指数（CIST），整合了六个行为和市场代理，以检验投资者情绪如何影响加密货币的回报和波动性。利用2018年3月至2023年7月的周数据，通过ARDL将情绪分解为理性和非理性成分，并通过VAR和脉冲响应分析动态效应。第一个主成分解释了几乎70% %的总方差。结果表明，理性情绪对收益和波动产生持续的、长期的影响，而非理性情绪导致短期波动峰值。研究结果表明，区分投资者的认知反应和情绪反应可以增强对加密货币市场行为的理解，从而推动了行为金融学的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Racial differences in expected stock market performance and stock ownership 预期股市表现与持股的种族差异
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101133
Ann Marie Hibbert , Shanxiang Yang
There are significant racial differences in expectations regarding future stock market performance. Using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations from 2013 to 2022, we find that, relative to White Americans, Black and Hispanic Americans have lower probabilistic expectations that the stock market will increase. This racial gap in expectations was even larger during the recession caused by the Covid-19 epidemic, suggesting that economic uncertainty exacerbates this heterogeneity in expectations. Furthermore, we show that relative to White Americans, the likelihood and level of participation of Black and Hispanic Americans in the stock market are significantly more affected by their subjective beliefs about future market prices.
对未来股市表现的预期存在显著的种族差异。利用纽约联邦储备银行2013年至2022年消费者预期调查的数据，我们发现，相对于美国白人，黑人和西班牙裔美国人对股市上涨的预期概率较低。在新冠疫情造成的经济衰退期间，这种预期上的种族差距甚至更大，这表明经济的不确定性加剧了这种预期的异质性。此外，我们表明，相对于白人，黑人和西班牙裔美国人参与股票市场的可能性和水平明显更受他们对未来市场价格的主观信念的影响。
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引用次数: 0
CEOs, parenthood, and corporate misconduct 首席执行官，为人父母，公司不当行为
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101123
Han Donker , John Nofsinger , Corey A. Shank
This study examines whether CEOs’ personal experiences as parents influence corporate ethical behavior. Drawing on the female socialization hypothesis, we test whether the gender of a CEO’s children, particularly the firstborn, affects the likelihood and severity of corporate misconduct, measured through U.S. Department of Justice regulatory violations. Using a large panel of U.S. firms, we find that companies led by CEOs with daughters commit fewer regulatory violations and pay smaller fines, with the effect concentrated among those whose firstborn child is a daughter. Additional analyses show that the number of daughters further reduces misconduct, suggesting cumulative exposure reinforces ethical awareness. Overall, our results highlight how early and repeated exposure to daughters can shape executives’ moral and risk preferences, ultimately influencing corporate decision-making and reducing unethical behavior.
本研究考察ceo作为父母的个人经历是否会影响企业道德行为。根据女性社会化假说，我们测试了CEO子女的性别，特别是长子的性别，是否会影响公司不当行为的可能性和严重程度，通过美国司法部的监管违规来衡量。通过对大量美国公司的调查，我们发现，有女儿的ceo领导的公司违反监管规定的次数较少，缴纳的罚款也较少，这种影响主要集中在头胎是女儿的公司。另外的分析表明，女儿的数量进一步减少了不当行为，表明累积暴露会增强道德意识。总的来说，我们的研究结果强调了早期和反复接触女儿如何塑造高管的道德和风险偏好，最终影响公司决策并减少不道德行为。
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引用次数: 0
Anchoring on safe haven: Russia–Ukraine war effects on the cryptocurrency market 锚定安全港：俄乌战争对加密货币市场的影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101122
Ivilina Popova, Yifan Liu, Ha-Chin Yi
To investigate whether investors display anchoring bias when seeking safe havens during market downturns, we analyze the cryptocurrency market amid the Russia–Ukraine war. We find that as the conflict intensifies, demand for cryptocurrencies — particularly those previously recognized as safe havens during the COVID-19 pandemic — significantly increases. However, this surge in demand is accompanied by negative returns and heightened risk, indicating that investors might overestimate the safety of cryptocurrencies based on past performance. Moreover, we show that cryptocurrencies positively correlate with S&P 500 and gold during the conflict, diminishing their diversification benefits. Also, cryptocurrencies should not be regarded as safe haven assets for the U.S. dollar or crude oil during the war. These results suggest that investors anchor on historical safe haven attributes, fail to properly adjust their expectations with new information, and overlook the associated risks in volatile markets. The findings are robust to a placebo test, cannot be explained by crypto-based sanction circumvention, and are driven by a geopolitical risk channel. Our study underscores the risk management implications of anchoring bias and highlights the pervasive influence of behavioral biases in the cryptocurrency market.
为了调查投资者在市场低迷期间寻求避风港时是否表现出锚定偏见，我们分析了俄罗斯-乌克兰战争期间的加密货币市场。我们发现，随着冲突加剧，对加密货币的需求——尤其是那些在COVID-19大流行期间被认为是安全避风港的货币——显著增加。然而，这种需求激增伴随着负回报和高风险，这表明投资者可能会根据过去的表现高估加密货币的安全性。此外，我们表明，在冲突期间，加密货币与标准普尔500指数和黄金呈正相关，从而降低了它们的多元化效益。此外，加密货币不应被视为战争期间美元或原油的避险资产。这些结果表明，投资者锚定在历史避险属性上，未能根据新信息适当调整他们的预期，并且忽视了波动市场中的相关风险。这些发现在安慰剂测试中是稳健的，不能用基于加密的制裁规避来解释，并且是由地缘政治风险渠道驱动的。我们的研究强调了锚定偏差对风险管理的影响，并强调了行为偏差在加密货币市场中的普遍影响。
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引用次数: 0
Financial literacy, robo-advising, and the demand for human financial advice: Evidence from Italy 金融知识、机器人咨询和对人类金融咨询的需求：来自意大利的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101125
David Aristei, Manuela Gallo
This paper investigates the influence of objective, subjective, and digital financial literacy on individuals’ propensity to utilise online services for automated financial advice. Exploiting microdata from the Bank of Italy’s 2023 Survey on Financial Literacy of Italian Adults, we find that individuals with greater objective financial literacy are less inclined to rely on robo-advisory services. Conversely, subjective and digital financial literacy enhance the likelihood of utilising robo-advisors. Behavioural factors, such as trust in financial innovation, the propensity to save and take risks, and engagement with digital financial services, also emerge as significant predictors of robo-advisory usage. Furthermore, we examine the interplay between robo-advising and different forms of human financial advice. While robo-advisory services appear to substitute for non-independent human advice, our results indicate a significant complementarity with independent professional advice. These findings underscore the importance of hybrid approaches in delivering financial advisory services.
本文调查了客观、主观和数字金融素养对个人倾向于利用在线服务进行自动化金融建议的影响。利用意大利银行2023年意大利成年人金融知识调查的微观数据，我们发现具有更高客观金融知识的个人不太倾向于依赖机器人咨询服务。相反，主观和数字金融知识提高了使用机器人顾问的可能性。行为因素，如对金融创新的信任、储蓄和冒险的倾向，以及与数字金融服务的接触，也成为机器人咨询使用的重要预测因素。此外，我们研究了机器人咨询和不同形式的人类财务建议之间的相互作用。虽然机器人咨询服务似乎取代了非独立的人类咨询，但我们的研究结果表明，它与独立的专业咨询具有重要的互补性。这些发现强调了混合方法在提供财务咨询服务方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Do aggressive CFOs borrow short-term? 激进的首席财务官会短期借贷吗？
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101121
Yong Kyu Gam , Andy Kim Young Han , Junho Park , Hojong Shin
We study whether CFOs’ psychological traits affect debt maturity choices. Using facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as a proxy for achievement drive, we measure 2494 CFOs and 2408 CEOs from 1992 to 2020. Higher-CFO fWHR predicts significantly shorter debt maturity with larger number of lead managers in syndicated loans, while CEO fWHR has no effect. The relationship is strongest when rollover risk is high and is confirmed in loan-level analyses and survives difference-in-differences test around CFO turnovers. Short-term borrowing by high-fWHR CFOs is not value-destroying: markets react positively, distress risk declines, and these CFOs are more often promoted externally to CEO.
我们研究了财务总监的心理特征是否影响债务期限的选择。利用面部宽高比（fWHR）作为成就驱动的代理，我们测量了1992年至2020年的2494名cfo和2408名ceo。在银团贷款中，首席财务官fWHR越高，主经理人数越多，债务期限越短，而首席执行官fWHR则没有影响。当展期风险高时，这种关系最强，并在贷款水平分析中得到证实，并且在围绕首席财务官更替的差异检验中幸存下来。高whr首席财务官的短期借款不会破坏价值：市场反应积极，陷入困境的风险下降，这些首席财务官通常从外部晋升为首席执行官。
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引用次数: 0
Historical business traditions and stock price crash risk: Evidence from merchant guilds’ influence in China 历史商业传统与股价崩盘风险：来自中国商人公会影响的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101120
Hengyi Su , Jianbo Huang , Lingyun Chen
This study examines whether and how merchant guilds’ historical traditions affect the stock price crash risk of Chinese firms. Using a comprehensive sample of publicly traded companies in China from 2003 to 2019, we find that firms more affected by historical guild traditions have significantly higher crash risk. Mechanism tests show that these firms engage in relation-oriented financial activities—including transactions, guarantees, and loans with their related parties—which is coupled with less voluntary disclosure to external investors. Furthermore, the effect of historical guild tradition on crash risk is especially pronounced for companies with lower analyst coverage, lower institutional ownership, and those in regions with weaker local governance. Overall, this study illustrates that exclusive institutions such as merchant guilds can encourage relation-oriented behaviors and ultimately amplify stock price crash risk.
本研究探讨商会的历史传统是否及如何影响中国企业的股价崩盘风险。利用2003 - 2019年中国上市公司的综合样本，我们发现受历史行业传统影响更大的公司崩盘风险显著更高。机制测试表明，这些公司从事以关系为导向的金融活动，包括与其关联方的交易、担保和贷款，同时对外部投资者的自愿披露较少。此外，对于分析师覆盖率较低、机构所有权较低以及地方治理较弱的公司，历史公会传统对崩溃风险的影响尤为明显。综上所述，本研究表明商会等排外机构会鼓励关系导向行为，并最终放大股价崩盘风险。
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引用次数: 0
Conducting real-time interactive experiments online: A guide for researchers 在线进行实时互动实验：研究人员指南
IF 4.7 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101118
Sarah Lynn Flecke , Sebastian Bachler
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift towards online behavioral experiments and the increased adoption of crowdsourcing platforms for participant recruitment. While conducting online studies has become more common, carrying out real-time interactive experiments online presents unique challenges. We provide an overview of existing tools for conducting interactive online experiments and discuss key considerations for setting up and running interactive online studies. We make special mention of the setup combination of studies programmed in oTree and carried out with Prolific samples, which has become popular in experimental and behavioral economics and finance research. Using a case study of a large multi-round experiment involving synchronous decision-making among groups of participants recruited via Prolific, we examine critical factors such as sample availability, participant arrival speed, traffic management, as well as dropout risks and mitigation approaches. We discuss strategies researchers can adopt and suggest areas for further investigation.
2019冠状病毒病大流行加速了向在线行为实验的转变，并越来越多地采用众包平台招募参与者。在进行在线研究变得越来越普遍的同时，进行在线实时互动实验提出了独特的挑战。我们提供了进行交互式在线实验的现有工具的概述，并讨论了建立和运行交互式在线研究的关键考虑因素。我们特别提到了在oTree中编程并使用多产样本进行研究的设置组合，这在实验和行为经济学和金融研究中已经很流行。通过一个大型多轮实验的案例研究，涉及通过多产招募的参与者群体之间的同步决策，我们检查了关键因素，如样本可用性，参与者到达速度，交通管理，以及辍学风险和缓解方法。我们讨论了研究人员可以采用的策略，并提出了进一步研究的领域。
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引用次数: 0
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