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A survey on public acceptance of automated vehicles across COVID-19 pandemic periods in China 2019冠状病毒病疫情期间中国公众对自动驾驶汽车的接受度调查
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.10.002
Jue Li, Zhiqian Hu, Long Liu

Automated vehicles (AVs) are not yet widely accepted by the public, and the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to lead to a shift in attitudes toward travel modes and vehicles because of travel restrictions and the risk of viral transmission. Therefore, it is necessary to understand how AVs are being accepted by the public during the pandemic. This study investigated public acceptance of AVs across two periods of the COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in China via 19-question online surveys, including the travel modes, AVs acceptance, and sociodemographic. A total of 429 responses were collected. Results showed that the public acceptance of AVs was on the positive side, but was diverse in items: the average extra cost willing to pay for a fully AV was 28,855.88 CNY (4116.39 USD), and 26.8% of respondents were not willing to pay for it. Respondents agreed on the benefits of AVs and are concerned about legal liability for drivers and fuel economy, and had a positive attitude of commercial AVs. Most acceptance items had differences between the pandemic periods, indicating that people were more willing to accept AVs during period with higher risk of infection. However, only the difference in perceived benefits of AV of ensuring social distance was statistically significant. Gender, age, and ownership of vehicle had greater effects on AVs acceptance, while driving ability and driving experience had small effects on it. This survey can provide insights for studies examining the acceptance of AVs across time, and exploring factors influencing AVs acceptance.

自动驾驶汽车尚未被公众广泛接受,由于出行限制和病毒传播的风险,COVID-19大流行有可能导致人们对出行方式和车辆的态度发生转变。因此,有必要了解在大流行期间,av是如何被公众接受的。本研究通过19个问题的在线调查,调查了中国在COVID-19疫情防控的两个时期公众对自动驾驶汽车的接受程度,包括出行方式、自动驾驶汽车接受程度和社会人口统计学。共收集了429份回复。结果显示,公众对自动驾驶汽车的接受程度是积极的,但在项目上存在差异:愿意为全功能自动驾驶汽车支付的平均额外成本为28,855.88元人民币(4116.39美元),26.8%的受访者不愿意支付。受访者认同自动驾驶汽车的好处,担心驾驶员的法律责任和燃油经济性,对商用自动驾驶汽车持积极态度。大多数接受项目在大流行时期之间存在差异,这表明人们在感染风险较高的时期更愿意接受av。然而,只有AV对确保社会距离的感知利益差异具有统计学意义。性别、年龄和车辆拥有量对自动驾驶汽车接受度的影响较大,驾驶能力和驾驶经验对自动驾驶汽车接受度的影响较小。本研究可为研究自动驾驶汽车在不同时期的接受程度,以及探索自动驾驶汽车接受程度的影响因素提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
TRAMON: An automated traffic monitoring system for high density, mixed and lane-free traffic TRAMON:用于高密度、混合和无车道交通的自动交通监控系统
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.10.001
Dang Minh Tan , Le-Minh Kieu

This paper introduces a new visual dataset and framework to facilitate computer-vision-based traffic monitoring in high density, mixed and lane-free traffic (TRAMON). While there are advanced deep learning algorithms that can detect and track vehicles from traffic videos, none of the existing systems provides accurate traffic monitoring in mixed traffic. The mixed traffic flows in developing countries often includes the types of vehicles that are not widely known by the existing visual datasets. The computer vision algorithms also face difficulties in detecting and tracking a high density of vehicles that are not following lanes. This paper proposes a large-scale visual dataset of >282,000 labelled images of traffic vehicles, as well as a comprehensive framework and strategy to train common deep-learning-based computer vision algorithms to detect and track vehicles in high density, heterogeneous and lane-free traffic. A systematic evaluation of results shows that TRAMON, the proposed visual dataset and framework, performs well and better than the common visual dataset at all traffic densities.

本文介绍了一种新的视觉数据集和框架,以促进高密度、混合和无车道交通(TRAMON)中基于计算机视觉的交通监控。虽然有先进的深度学习算法可以从交通视频中检测和跟踪车辆,但现有的系统都无法在混合交通中提供准确的交通监控。发展中国家的混合交通流通常包括现有视觉数据集不广为人知的车辆类型。计算机视觉算法在检测和跟踪不按车道行驶的高密度车辆方面也面临困难。本文提出了一个大规模的视觉数据集>;282000张交通车辆的标记图像,以及一个全面的框架和策略,用于训练常见的基于深度学习的计算机视觉算法,以检测和跟踪高密度、异构和无车道交通中的车辆。对结果的系统评估表明,所提出的视觉数据集和框架TRAMON在所有交通密度下都比普通视觉数据集表现良好。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of primary-party traffic accident rates per driver in Japan from 1995 to 2015: Do older drivers cause more accidents? 1995 - 2015年日本司机人均交通事故率分析:年龄越大的司机是否更容易发生交通事故?
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.09.001
Kyoungmin Kim, Keisuke Matsuhashi, Masahiro Ishikawa

Studies on the age and generation characteristics of traffic accidents primarily focus on the tendency of deaths and severe injuries, whereas the faults or drivers who caused the accidents are not considered. Using license holders as a parameter for measuring accident risk when evaluating the number of primary-party accidents is challenging because it includes those who possess licenses but do not drive. In previous studies, the age characteristics in traffic accidents were evaluated based on different age groups and generational characteristics. Therefore, a Bayesian age–period–cohort analysis was performed in this study to isolate the effects of age, period, and generation on the number of traffic crashes. This approach can identify the gender/age of the driver, who may be the primary contributor to an accident, as well as the risk of traffic accidents in younger and older drivers. The results show that 1) age imposes a more significant effect than the duration and cohort. In the case of single-vehicle accidents, 2) the effect of age was significantly more prominent for males over 80 years old and females over 70 years old.

对交通事故年龄和发生特征的研究主要集中在死亡和重伤的趋势上,而没有考虑造成事故的故障或驾驶员。在评估第一方事故数量时,使用许可证持有人作为衡量事故风险的参数具有挑战性,因为这包括那些拥有许可证但不开车的人。在以往的研究中,交通事故中的年龄特征是根据不同的年龄组和代际特征进行评估的。因此,本研究进行了贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析,以分离年龄、时期和世代对交通事故数量的影响。这种方法可以确定驾驶员的性别/年龄,驾驶员可能是事故的主要原因,以及年轻和老年驾驶员发生交通事故的风险。结果表明,1)年龄比持续时间和队列产生更显著的影响。在单车事故的情况下,2)年龄的影响在80岁以上的男性和70岁以上的女性中明显更突出。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating two-wheelers risk factors for severe crashes using an interpretable machine learning approach and SHAP analysis 使用可解释的机器学习方法和SHAP分析调查两轮车严重碰撞的风险因素
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.07.005
Mohammad Tamim Kashifi

The use of two-wheelers (TWs) has gained popularity as an alternative to personal vehicles due to their flexibility, fuel economy, ease of parking, and size, especially in congested cities. However, TWs are considered vulnerable road users due to their higher riding risk compared to other modes. This study proposes a novel framework to extract latent and dependent heterogeneous risk factors that affect the crash severity of TWs. By combining eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis, this study investigates the factors affecting TW crash severity, providing both local and global interpretability. The XGBoost method is employed to model crash severity, while SHAP analysis facilitates the derivation of explanations from the model, enhancing our understanding of the contributing factors. The French crash dataset for TWs between 2014 and 2017 is utilized for this analysis. The findings highlight that the department of the crash, road category, urbanization level, TW category, and age of the user significantly influence TW crash severity. Furthermore, severe injuries are more likely to occur in TW crashes associated with rural areas, older riders, riders not wearing helmets, run-off-road crashes, and crossing roads. The insights derived from this study can be leveraged to develop targeted interventions that address the identified risk factors and promote the safety of TW riders. By focusing on these key factors, policymakers and stakeholders can implement effective measures to reduce the severity of TW crashes and enhance the overall safety of TW users.

两轮车(TWs)由于其灵活性、燃油经济性、易于停车和体积小,尤其是在拥挤的城市,作为私家车的替代品,使用TWs已经越来越受欢迎。然而,由于与其他交通方式相比,TWs的骑行风险更高,因此被认为是脆弱的道路使用者。本研究提出了一种新的框架来提取影响TWs碰撞严重程度的潜在和依赖异质性风险因素。通过结合极端梯度增压(XGBoost)和SHapley加性解释(SHAP)分析,本研究探讨了影响TW碰撞严重程度的因素,提供了局部和全局可解释性。采用XGBoost方法对崩溃严重程度进行建模,而SHAP分析有助于从模型中推导解释,增强我们对影响因素的理解。该分析使用了2014年至2017年法国TWs的坠机数据集。研究结果表明,事故部门、道路类别、城市化水平、TW类别和使用者年龄对TW碰撞严重程度有显著影响。此外,严重伤害更可能发生在与农村地区、老年骑手、不戴头盔的骑手、越野跑碰撞和过马路有关的TW碰撞中。从这项研究中获得的见解可以用于制定有针对性的干预措施,以解决已确定的风险因素,并促进TW车手的安全。通过关注这些关键因素,政策制定者和利益相关者可以采取有效措施,降低TW事故的严重程度,提高TW用户的整体安全性。
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引用次数: 1
Modelling crash severity outcomes for low speed urban roads using back propagation – Artificial neural network (BP – ANN) – A case study in Indian context 使用反向传播-人工神经网络(BP - ANN)对低速城市道路碰撞严重程度结果进行建模-印度案例研究
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.08.002
Santanu Barman , Ranja Bandyopadhyaya

This work analyses influence of road, weather and crash-specific factors on crash severity outcomes for low-speed urban midblock sections and intersections, for day and night time, using Backpropagation–Artificial Neural Network (BP–ANN). Five-year crash data (2015–2019) from 82Km urban road network of Patna, India was used for the study. The road factors include pavement width, distress condition, marking; shoulder type, condition; road section type as mid-block, intersection and intersection control. Weather factors include season of crash, fog or rain at crash time. Crash factor include collision partner, type and crash time. The most appropriate BP–ANN model architecture was estimated using Misclassification-Rate. It was observed that midblock segments witness higher severities during daytime, whereas intersections witness higher severities during night. Controlled intersections are safer compared to un-controlled intersections. Pavement distress greatly increase the chance of higher severities. Narrow roads record greater severities during day due to lack of surveillance.

本研究使用反向传播-人工神经网络(BP-ANN)分析了道路、天气和碰撞特定因素对低速城市街区中部路段和十字路口碰撞严重程度结果的影响。研究使用了印度巴特那82公里城市道路网络的五年碰撞数据(2015-2019年)。道路因素包括路面宽度、遇险状况、标线;肩型、状况;路段类型为中间街区、交叉口和控制交叉口。天气因素包括坠毁季节、坠毁时的雾或雨。碰撞因素包括碰撞伙伴、类型和碰撞时间。使用Misclassification-Rate估计最合适的BP-ANN模型架构。观察到,在白天,街区中间路段的严重程度更高,而在夜间,路口的严重程度更高。有控制的交叉口比无控制的交叉口更安全。路面破损大大增加了发生更严重事故的可能性。由于缺乏监控,狭窄的道路在白天更加严重。
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引用次数: 1
Crash severity analysis of single-vehicle rollover crashes in Namibia: A mixed logit approach 纳米比亚单车辆侧翻事故的严重程度分析:混合logit方法
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.07.002
Cailis Bullard , Steven Jones , Emmanuel Kofi Adanu , Jun Liu

Road traffic crashes are a leading cause of serious injuries and fatalities globally and place unnecessary developmental and economic burdens on low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) as they account for the vast majority of the world's road related deaths. This is typically due to both the increased frequency of dangerous crash types and the increased severity of said crash types. Rollover crashes while quite rare are a particularly dangerous crash type among other various crash types. In the case of Namibia, rollover crashes reportedly accounted for 34% of both road related injuries and fatalities in Namibia for 2020. When compared to high-income countries the issue of rollover crash severity in Namibia and like sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries becomes apparent. Therefore, it crucial to understand the contributing factors and their associated effects on rollover crash severities in these countries. This study aims to investigate and identify the significant factors influencing crash severities and their associated impact magnitudes on single-vehicle rollover crashes in Namibia by adopting a mixed logit with heterogeneity in means and variances approach to account for unobserved heterogeneity in the data. Although it is not without its limitations the dataset used in this study includes single-vehicles rollover crash instances from 2014 to 2016 within Namibia and is able to provide unique details for the crash observations including various driver, environmental, roadway, and vehicle characteristics. Results from this study indicate several factors including weekends, open roadways, and minibuses to be significantly increasing the crash severity of single-vehicle rollover crashes. Additionally, results provide a basis for which researchers and policy makers can understand rollover crashes in Namibia and adopt an appropriate approach to address this issue, such as, Safe Systems. Such an approach would include but not be limited to the implementation of roadside features, educational campaigns, speed enforcement, and vehicle standards policy.

道路交通事故是全球严重伤亡的主要原因,给中低收入国家带来了不必要的发展和经济负担,因为它们占世界道路相关死亡人数的绝大多数。这通常是由于危险碰撞类型的频率增加和所述碰撞类型的严重性增加。翻车事故虽然非常罕见,但在其他各种事故类型中是一种特别危险的事故类型。就纳米比亚而言,据报道,2020年,翻车事故占纳米比亚道路相关伤亡人数的34%。与高收入国家相比,纳米比亚和撒哈拉以南非洲国家的翻车事故严重性问题变得显而易见。因此,了解这些国家翻车事故严重程度的促成因素及其相关影响至关重要。本研究旨在通过采用均值和方差异质性的混合logit方法来解释数据中未观察到的异质性,调查和确定影响碰撞严重程度的重要因素及其对纳米比亚单车侧翻事故的相关影响程度。尽管并非没有局限性,但本研究中使用的数据集包括2014年至2016年纳米比亚境内的单车侧翻碰撞实例,能够为碰撞观测提供独特的细节,包括各种驾驶员、环境、道路和车辆特征。这项研究的结果表明,包括周末、开放道路和小型公共汽车在内的几个因素显著增加了单车侧翻事故的严重程度。此外,研究结果为研究人员和政策制定者了解纳米比亚的翻车事故并采取适当的方法来解决这一问题提供了基础,例如安全系统。这种方法包括但不限于实施路边特色、教育活动、速度执法和车辆标准政策。
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引用次数: 0
GIS-based identification and analysis of suitable evacuation areas and routes in flood-prone zones of Nakhon Si Thammarat municipality 基于gis的那空西塔玛拉市洪水易发地区适宜疏散区域和路线的识别和分析
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.08.004
Piyapong Suwanno , Chaiwat Yaibok , Thaksakorn Pornbunyanon , Chollada Kanjanakul , Chayanat Buathongkhue , Noriyasu Tsumita , Atsushi Fukuda

Floods are a significant issue across Southeast Asia, with Thailand, particularly the Nakhon Si Thammarat Municipality, being heavily affected due to its unique conditions such as heavy rainfall, rapid urbanization, and low-lying coastal position. This study utilizes Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze the flood-prone areas of Nakhon Si Thammarat Municipality, assess its road networks, and identify optimal evacuation locations and routes. Various data layers such as slope angle, elevation, distance from roads, rainfall, TWI, NDVI, land use, soil texture, distance from rivers, stream density, and road density are integrated using the frequency ratio method. The findings reveal areas with very high flood susceptibility, which span 198.78 sq. km (56.74%) at the high frequency level, 299.43 sq. km (37.63%) at the low frequency level, and 284.62 sq. km (53.88%) at the moderate frequency level. During flood scenarios, travel times saw an average increase to 21.4 min, which is a fourfold surge compared to regular conditions, highlighting the impact of floods on evacuation strategies. Upon evaluating the road network under flood conditions and applying network analysis techniques, efficient and safe evacuation routes were determined. The results, which underscore a fourfold increase in travel time during flood scenarios, present valuable insights for emergency management authorities across Thailand and Southeast Asia to devise comprehensive evacuation plans, thereby enhancing regional resilience against future flood events. Furthermore, the methodologies and findings are adaptable and can be applied to other flood-prone regions within Southeast Asia, contributing to improved disaster preparedness and response.

洪水是整个东南亚的一个重大问题,泰国,特别是那空西塔玛拉市,由于其独特的条件,如强降雨、快速城市化和低洼的沿海位置,受到严重影响。本研究利用地理信息系统(GIS)来分析那空西塔玛拉市的洪水易发地区,评估其道路网络,并确定最佳疏散地点和路线。利用频率比法,将坡度、高程、与道路的距离、降雨量、TWI、NDVI、土地利用、土壤质地、与河流的距离、溪流密度和道路密度等各种数据层整合在一起。研究结果显示,这些地区的洪水易感性非常高,面积为198.78平方公里。高频区为299.43 sq. Km(56.74%)。在低频水平Km(37.63%)和284.62 sq.;Km(53.88%)在中频水平。在洪水情景下,出行时间平均增加到21.4分钟,是正常情况下的四倍,突出了洪水对疏散策略的影响。通过对洪涝条件下的道路网络进行评价,运用网络分析技术,确定了高效、安全的疏散路线。研究结果强调,在洪水情景下,出行时间增加了四倍,为泰国和东南亚的应急管理当局制定全面的疏散计划提供了宝贵的见解,从而提高了该地区应对未来洪水事件的能力。此外,这些方法和研究结果具有适应性,可应用于东南亚其他洪水易发地区,有助于改进备灾和救灾工作。
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引用次数: 0
Paratransit service quality modeling reflecting users' perception-A case study in Dhaka, Bangladesh 反映用户感知的公交服务质量建模——以孟加拉国达卡为例
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.07.001
Farzana Rahman , Md. Ariful Islam , Md. Hadiuzzaman

Increasing usage of private cars and low service quality of public transport is an acute problem in many developing cities. The prerequisite is to meet the mobility needs, especially for low-income people, to ensure adequate capacity by the service provided. Paratransit is an indispensable mode of public transport, especially where the mass transit system is insufficient. Rapid increase in urban population, per capita income along existing transport infrastructure has stimulated their usage as a cheap and convenient public transport mode. Quality of service is considered as one of the most significant means to assess transit performance. To observe the performance of public transportation in roadway systems, overall passenger perceived service quality (SQ) has always been the most significant means of measurement. This research aims to establish a relationship between SQ variables describing the service of paratransit by Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) based on users' perceptions. An interview survey was conducted off-board to 2025 paratransit users at twenty paratransit routes in Dhaka metropolitan area (Bangladesh). Results show that the attribute of integration with supporting modes has the highest loading, inferring it as the most significant aspect of SQ. Attributes loading value may be explained according to the importance perceived by the users. Several SE models were developed using 21 service variables from 2000 questionnaires. Upon developing different models, the best model with three latent constructs was identified as the main characteristics for explaining the entire set of physical and service performance elements of the paratransit service. Three latent constructs were ‘Quality of transport’, ‘Transit performance’ and ‘Service quality’. Among 21 SQ variables, ‘Security of passenger’, ‘seat comfort level’, and ‘riding safety’ have been found to impart the greatest influence on the overall perceived SQ. The study findings support the data collected from paratransit users. This study may help the paratransit operators to determine variables that are decisive for SQ and their relation with the overall perceived SQ by the users. Understanding SQ variables, influencing passenger perception makes it easier to design and deliver good quality service.

私家车使用量的增加和公共交通服务质量的低下是许多发展中城市面临的一个严重问题。先决条件是满足流动需要,特别是低收入者的流动需要,以确保所提供的服务有足够的能力。辅助交通是一种不可或缺的公共交通方式,特别是在公共交通系统不足的地方。随着城市人口和人均收入的快速增长,现有的交通基础设施刺激了它们作为一种廉价便捷的公共交通方式的使用。服务质量被认为是评估交通绩效的最重要的手段之一。为了观察道路系统中公共交通的性能,总体乘客感知服务质量(SQ)一直是最重要的测量手段。本研究旨在以用户感知为基础,运用结构方程模型(SEM)建立描述辅助交通服务的SQ变量之间的关系。对达卡大都市区(孟加拉国)20条辅助交通路线上的2025名辅助交通用户进行了访谈调查。结果表明,与支持模式的集成属性具有最高的载荷,推断它是SQ最重要的方面。属性加载值可以根据用户感知到的重要性来解释。使用2000份问卷中的21个服务变量开发了几个SE模型。通过开发不同的模型,确定了具有三个潜在构式的最佳模型作为解释整个公共交通服务的物理和服务性能要素的主要特征。三个潜在构念是“运输质量”、“运输绩效”和“服务质量”。在21个SQ变量中,“乘客安全”、“座位舒适度”和“乘坐安全”对整体感知SQ的影响最大。研究结果支持从公共交通用户那里收集的数据。本研究可帮助辅助交通营运商确定对SQ有决定性影响的变数,以及这些变数与使用者整体感知SQ的关系。了解SQ变量,影响乘客的感知,可以更容易地设计和提供优质的服务。
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引用次数: 0
Identification of road traffic crashes hotspots on an intercity expressway in India using geospatial techniques 利用地理空间技术识别印度城际高速公路上的道路交通事故热点
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.07.003
Laxman Singh Bisht, Geetam Tiwari

Ascertaining the underlying pattern of road traffic crashes (RTCs) and identifying hotspots is essential for improving safety on the road network. Researchers have employed various statistical modelling and spatial methods to predict crash frequency and identify their hotspots on the road network. In India, the road network length has been increasing, especially the expressway network length. The increase in the network length has also increased RTCs. Hence, it is essential to assess the crash pattern and identify hotspots on the intercity expressways in India. This study aims to identify the fatal crash hotspots on the selected intercity expressway using geospatial methods. First, in this study, hotspot sections were identified using ordinary kriging (OK) and, kernel density estimation (KDE), network kernel density estimation (NKDE) methods. Next, the employed techniques were compared to know their predictive effectiveness in identifying the hotspots. The study used the fatal crash data from August 2012 to October 2018 for the selected 165 km intercity expressway. Outcomes of the geospatial methods revealed some of the common hotspots are identified by both methods. The comparative analysis indicated that the NKDE method is more effective in identifying the hotspots in smaller segments than the other two methods. Consequently, this research's outcomes would facilitate intercity expressway-owning agencies to select a practical and readily applicable hotspot identification methodology in LMICs.

确定道路交通事故的潜在模式和识别热点对于提高道路网络的安全性至关重要。研究人员采用了各种统计模型和空间方法来预测碰撞频率并确定其在道路网络上的热点。在印度,道路网络长度一直在增加,特别是高速公路网络长度。网络长度的增加也增加了rtc。因此,有必要评估印度城际高速公路上的事故模式并确定热点。本研究的目的是利用地理空间方法识别选定的城际高速公路上的致命碰撞热点。首先,在本研究中,使用普通克里格(OK)和核密度估计(KDE)、网络核密度估计(NKDE)方法识别热点区段。接下来,将所采用的技术进行比较,以了解它们在识别热点方面的预测有效性。该研究使用了2012年8月至2018年10月的致命事故数据,用于选定的165公里城际高速公路。地理空间方法的结果表明,两种方法都能识别出一些共同的热点。对比分析表明,与其他两种方法相比,NKDE方法在识别小范围热点方面更有效。因此,本研究的结果将有助于城际高速公路拥有机构在中低收入国家选择实用且易于应用的热点识别方法。
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引用次数: 0
Using geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) for pedestrian crash severity modeling: Exploring spatially varying relationships with natural and built environment factors 使用地理加权逻辑回归(GWLR)进行行人碰撞严重程度建模:探索与自然和建筑环境因素的空间变化关系
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.07.004
Niaz Mahmud Zafri, Asif Khan

Although a large number of studies have tried to explore the relationship between built environment and pedestrian crash severity in developed countries, there is a lack of similar studies in the context of developing countries. Methodologically, the contributory factors influencing pedestrian crash severity are commonly identified through global logistic regression (GLR) models. However, these models are unable to capture the spatial variation in the relationships between the dependent and independent variables. The local logistic regression model, such as geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR), can potentially overcome this issue. The application of local logistic regression to model pedestrian crash severity is absent in the literature. Therefore, this study aimed to apply the GWLR technique to explore spatially heterogeneous relationships between natural and built environment-related factors and pedestrian crash severity in Dhaka, the capital city of a developing country: Bangladesh. First, using secondary pedestrian crash data, a GLR model was developed to identify significant contributory factors influencing pedestrian crash severity. Results of the model showed that the probability of fatal pedestrian crash occurrence increased at night, in unlit locations, and during adverse weather conditions. In addition, the likelihood of a fatal crash decreases when medians exist on roads and around institutional land use. Also, the chance of fatal crashes increased on straight and flat roads and at locations with more bus stops. Finally, this study explored spatial variation in the effect intensity of these significant variables across the study area using the GWLR technique. High intensity variation across the study area was found for road geometry and institutional land use factors. On the other hand, low intensity variation was found for light conditions and the presence of median factors. This technique can be applied in any area, and the results would help provide insights into the spatial dimension of traffic safety.

尽管在发达国家有大量的研究试图探讨建筑环境与行人碰撞严重程度之间的关系,但在发展中国家的背景下缺乏类似的研究。在方法上,通常通过全局逻辑回归(GLR)模型确定影响行人碰撞严重程度的因素。然而,这些模型无法捕捉因变量和自变量之间关系的空间变化。局部逻辑回归模型,如地理加权逻辑回归(GWLR),可以潜在地克服这个问题。在文献中没有应用局部逻辑回归来模拟行人碰撞严重程度。因此,本研究旨在应用GWLR技术探讨发展中国家孟加拉国首都达卡的自然和建筑环境相关因素与行人碰撞严重程度之间的空间异质性关系。首先,利用二次行人碰撞数据,建立了GLR模型,以确定影响行人碰撞严重程度的重要因素。该模型的结果表明,在夜间、无照明地点和恶劣天气条件下,发生致命行人碰撞的概率增加。此外,当道路和机构用地周围存在中位数时,发生致命车祸的可能性会降低。此外,在笔直平坦的道路上以及公交车站较多的地方,发生致命车祸的几率也有所增加。最后,本研究利用GWLR技术探讨了这些显著变量在研究区域内的影响强度的空间变化。在整个研究区域内,道路几何形状和机构土地利用因素的强度变化很大。另一方面,光照条件和中位数因素的存在导致了低强度的变化。这项技术可以应用于任何领域,其结果将有助于深入了解交通安全的空间维度。
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IATSS Research
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