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Do informal reasoning fallacies really shape decisions? Experimental evidence 非正式推理谬误真的会影响决策吗?实验证据
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-07-20 DOI: 10.1177/10434631211033658
Lucie Vrbová, Kateřina Jiřinová, K. Helman, Hana Lorencová
Informal reasoning fallacies belong to a persuasive tactic, leading to a conclusion that is not supported by premises but reached through emotions and/or misleading and incomplete information. Previous research focused on the ability to recognize informal reasoning fallacies. However, the recognition itself does not necessarily mean immunity to their influence on decisions made. An experiment was designed to study the relationship between the presence of informal reasoning fallacies and a consequent decision. Having conducted paired comparisons of distributions, we have found some support for the hypothesis that informal reasoning fallacies affect decision-making more substantially than non-fallacious reasoning—strong support in the case of a slippery slope, weak in that of appeal to fear, anecdotal evidence argument defying evaluation. Numeracy and cognitive reflection seem to be associated with higher resistance to the slippery slope, but do not diminish appeal to fear.
非正式推理谬误属于一种有说服力的策略,导致没有前提支持的结论,而是通过情感和/或误导性和不完整的信息得出的。以前的研究集中在识别非正式推理谬误的能力上。然而,承认本身并不一定意味着不受其对所作决定的影响。设计了一个实验来研究非正式推理谬误的存在和随后的决定之间的关系。通过对分布进行配对比较,我们发现了一些支持假设的证据,即非正式推理谬误比非谬误推理对决策的影响更大——在滑坡效应的情况下,有力支持,在吸引恐惧的情况下,弱支持,轶事证据反驳评估。计算能力和认知反射能力似乎与对滑坡效应的更高抵抗力有关,但并没有减少对恐惧的吸引力。
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引用次数: 1
They can’t treat you well under abusive supervision: Investigating the impact of job satisfaction and extrinsic motivation on healthcare employees 在虐待性的监督下,他们不能善待你:调查工作满意度和外在动机对医疗保健员工的影响
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-07-17 DOI: 10.1177/10434631211033660
Saeed Siyal, Mariam Saeed, M. H. Pahi, Rukhman Solangi, Chunlin Xin
Building on the emerging research that has demonstrated the adverse effects of abusive supervision on employee performance, this research draws on the theories of prosocial motivation and action identification. We develop and empirically test a mediation model to examine the indirect impact of abusive supervision on employee performance. Data were obtained from 430 Chinese healthcare employees to validate and test our proposed hypotheses and generalize the findings from Western settings in the Eastern context. The findings indicate that abusive supervision is negatively related to employee performance. Job satisfaction and extrinsic motivation mediated this relationship. The study has some important theoretical and practical implications, and we have also discussed some future directions.
在现有研究的基础上,本研究借鉴了亲社会动机和行为认同理论,证明了滥用监督对员工绩效的不利影响。我们开发并实证检验了一个中介模型,以检验滥用监督对员工绩效的间接影响。从430名中国医护人员中获得数据,以验证和检验我们提出的假设,并将西方背景下的研究结果推广到东方背景下。研究结果表明,虐待性监管与员工绩效呈负相关。工作满意度和外在动机在这一关系中起中介作用。本研究具有重要的理论和实践意义,并对今后的研究方向进行了探讨。
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引用次数: 17
From green to ripe: Dynamics of peacemaking in Colombia (1998–2016) 从绿色到成熟:哥伦比亚缔造和平的动力(1998-2006)
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-06-25 DOI: 10.1177/10434631211024242
J. Ríos, Manuel Hidalgo, L. Medina
Armed conflict in Colombia with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-EP) was only settled after 50 years and several attempts at negotiations. This sequence of events fits the pattern of “conflict ripeness” first proposed by William Zartman. But using a successful settlement as a way to determine ripeness can be tautological. To address this issue, we develop a formal model to identify the level of ripeness at which a conflict is settled. In an overripe conflict both parties end up spending resources in a military build-up that is out of proportion with what they obtain in the final settlement. We show that such overripeness is exacerbated by the access to resources and by the factional heterogeneity within the two sides. We illustrate these dynamics by looking in detail at the attempts at negotiation between Colombia’s government and the FARC-EP. To that end, we combine statistical data, some previously undisclosed, and interviews with some key participants.
哥伦比亚与哥伦比亚革命武装力量(FARC-EP)的武装冲突在经过50年的多次谈判后才得以解决。这一系列事件符合William Zartman首次提出的“冲突成熟”模式。但是,使用一个成功的解决方案来确定成熟度可能是重复的。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一个正式的模型来确定解决冲突的成熟程度。在一场过于成熟的冲突中,双方最终都会在军事集结中花费资源,这与他们在最终解决方案中获得的资源不成比例。我们表明,获得资源和双方派系的异质性加剧了这种过度扩张。我们通过详细观察哥伦比亚政府与哥伦比亚革命武装力量-人民军之间的谈判尝试来说明这些动态。为此,我们结合了一些以前未公开的统计数据,以及对一些关键参与者的采访。
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引用次数: 2
A picture of regret: An empirical investigation of post-Brexit referendum survey data 遗憾的画面:英国脱欧后公投调查数据的实证调查
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-06-18 DOI: 10.1177/10434631211035202
A. Collins, Adam Cox, Gianpiero Torrisi
Whilst the properties of decision regret have been widely explored in experimental and game theoretic studies, the empirical features of regret from large-scale ‘binary decision’ national events in practice have garnered less scrutiny. This study is an empirical investigation of novel survey data reporting ‘Brexit’ voting choices and expressions of a desire to change voting choices post-referendum. We investigate if Leave voters are more or less likely to express a change to their binary referendum vote choice than those who voted Remain or abstained and then identify the particular characteristics of those who regret their vote choice. A large-scale pan-European survey is used to capture citizens’ perceptions of the European Union containing 17,147 interviews of adults from 15 EU member states. Using responses from UK citizens (n = 1500), focus is directed to the vote choice for the ‘Brexit’ referendum and the corresponding choice if the referendum were held ‘today’. Probit regression estimation identifies the key differences in the characteristics of those who expressed regret by indicating a desire to change voting choices. Results show that knowledge of EU funding policies, permanence of residential location, population size of the local area, educational attainment, employment status and income are key drivers for regretting the referendum voting decision.
虽然决策后悔的性质在实验和博弈论研究中得到了广泛的探索,但实践中大规模“二元决策”国家事件的后悔的经验特征却很少受到关注。这项研究是对报告“脱欧”投票选择和公投后改变投票选择意愿的新调查数据的实证调查。我们调查了脱欧选民是否比投票支持留欧或弃权的选民更有可能表达对二元公投投票选择的改变,然后确定了那些后悔投票选择的人的特殊特征。一项大规模的泛欧调查旨在捕捉公民对欧盟的看法,其中包括对来自15个欧盟成员国的17147名成年人的采访。使用英国公民的回复(n = 1500),重点是“脱欧”公投的投票选择以及如果公投在“今天”举行的相应选择。Probit回归估计通过表明希望改变投票选择来确定那些表示遗憾的人的特征的关键差异。结果表明,对欧盟资助政策的了解、居住地点的永久性、当地人口规模、教育程度、就业状况和收入是对公投投票决定感到遗憾的关键驱动因素。
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引用次数: 2
Intergenerational class mobility in industrial and post-industrial societies: Towards a general theory 工业和后工业社会的代际阶级流动:走向一般理论
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1177/10434631221093791
E. Bukodi, J. Goldthorpe
A large body of often rather complex findings on intergenerational social mobility has by now come into existence but theoretical development has not kept pace. In this paper, focusing specifically on class mobility in European nations and the US, we aim, first of all, to identify the main empirical regularities that have emerged from research, making the now standard distinction between absolute and relative mobility. Next, we review previous theories of mobility, leading up to what we label as the liberal theory, and we note the difficulties now evident with the latter, associated with its functionalist basis. We then set out our own theory of intergenerational class mobility, grounded in the subjectively rational courses of action followed by the various actors involved. We seek to show how the empirical regularities described can in this way be accounted for, while pointing to additional evidence that supports the theory but also to ways in which it is open to further empirical test. Finally, we consider some more general implications of the theory and, on this basis, venture a number of – conditional – predictions on the future of class mobility in more advanced societies.
关于代际社会流动的大量研究结果目前已经出现,但理论发展却没有跟上。在本文中,我们特别关注欧洲国家和美国的阶级流动性,我们的目标是,首先,确定研究中出现的主要经验规律,对绝对流动性和相对流动性进行现在的标准区分。接下来,我们回顾之前的流动性理论,这些理论导致了我们称之为自由主义的理论,我们注意到后者的困难,这与它的功能主义基础有关。然后,我们提出了我们自己的代际阶级流动理论,该理论以主观理性的行动路线为基础,这些行动路线由涉及的各种行动者遵循。我们试图展示如何以这种方式解释所描述的经验规律,同时指出支持该理论的其他证据,同时也指出了对进一步的经验检验开放的方式。最后,我们考虑了该理论的一些更普遍的含义,并在此基础上,大胆地对更先进社会中阶级流动性的未来进行了一些有条件的预测。
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引用次数: 4
Efficiency loss and support for income redistribution: Evidence from a laboratory experiment 效率损失和对收入再分配的支持:来自实验室实验的证据
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-05-12 DOI: 10.1177/10434631211015514
M. Tepe, Fabian Paetzel, J. Lorenz, Maximilian Lutz
Income redistribution with an efficiency loss is expected to have a twofold negative effect on support for redistribution, as it lowers egoistic support for redistribution and activates efficiency preferences. This study tests whether such a negative relationship exists, increases with the size of efficiency loss and interacts with group communication and the income position. We present a laboratory experiment in which subjects receive a randomly allocated income and must coordinate on a majority tax rate using a deliberative communication tool. The rate of money lost as a part of the redistribution process is manipulated as a treatment variable (0%, 5%, 20%, or 60%). Experimental evidence shows that efficiency loss exerts a robust negative effect on support for redistribution. The effect shows a tipping point pattern, is stronger at the lower end of the income distribution and is not fully explained by egoistic preferences. Inefficiency matters mostly for the chosen tax rate after group communication. At an efficiency loss of 60%, however, group communication does not affect support for redistribution, which implies that inefficiencies tend to play a minor role in the context of redistribution as long as they are within a moderate range. JEL Classification: C91, C92, D63, D72
具有效率损失的收入再分配预计会对再分配的支持产生双重负面影响,因为它降低了对再分配的利己主义支持,并激活了效率偏好。本研究检验了这种负相关关系是否存在,并随着效率损失的大小而增加,并与群体沟通和收入状况相互作用。我们提出了一个实验室实验,在该实验中,受试者获得随机分配的收入,并且必须使用协商沟通工具协调多数税率。作为再分配过程的一部分,金钱损失率被作为一个处理变量(0%、5%、20%或60%)来操纵。实验证据表明,效率损失对再分配的支持产生了强烈的负面影响。这种效应显示出一种临界点模式,在收入分配的低端更强,并且不能完全用利己主义偏好来解释。效率低下主要是因为小组沟通后选择的税率。然而,在效率损失60%的情况下,群体沟通不会影响对再分配的支持,这意味着,只要效率在适度范围内,效率低下在再分配的背景下往往会发挥次要作用。JEL分类:C91、C92、D63、D72
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引用次数: 2
Corrigendum to “The Five Games of Mr Edgar Allan Poe: A study of strategic thought in “The Purloined Letter”” 《埃德加·爱伦·坡的五场游戏:《失窃的信》中的战略思想研究》的勘误表
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/10434631211012504
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引用次数: 0
Faith struggles in science: Academic schools as religious sects 科学中的信仰斗争:作为宗教派别的学术学校
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-04-10 DOI: 10.1177/10434631211008635
Florian Follert, F. Daumann
Particularly in the social sciences, scientific debates can be understood as a special expression of academic discourse and ideally support the progress of knowledge within a discipline. Very often, there are competing academic schools with greatly differing theoretical foundations, as we have seen, for example, in social sciences-especially by the “Methodenstreit” in economics, or the “Positivismusstreit” in Sociology. This paper aims to introduce a new approach to study academic schools and would like to contribute to the literature on the economics of science. To this end, the paper uses the economic theory of religion in general and the economics of sects in particular by transferring the approach to academic schools for the first time. Our results can help to extend the understanding of scientific decision-making and to explain the membership to an academic school. Although the model is presented in relationship to social sciences in general and economics in particular, the basic model of academic schools is generally transferable. JEL Classification: A12, B13, B21, B40, B53, Z12
特别是在社会科学中,科学辩论可以被理解为学术话语的一种特殊表达,理想情况下支持学科内的知识进步。很多时候,有相互竞争的学术流派,它们有着截然不同的理论基础,例如,我们在社会科学中看到的,特别是经济学中的“方法论”或社会学中的“实证主义”。本文旨在介绍一种研究学术流派的新方法,并希望为科学经济学文献做出贡献。为此,本文运用了一般的宗教经济学理论,特别是教派经济学,首次将这一方法转移到学术流派。我们的研究结果有助于扩展对科学决策的理解,并解释学术学校的成员资格。尽管该模型通常与社会科学特别是经济学有关,但学院的基本模型通常是可转移的。JEL分类:A12、B13、B21、B40、B53、Z12
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引用次数: 1
The clear expectation of cultural betterment in the face of rising living standards 面对不断提高的生活水平,对文化改善的明确期望
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-03-26 DOI: 10.1177/10434631231177810
Ryan Murphy
Rising Real Gross Domestic Product Per Capita data indicates rises in living standards. Nonetheless, cultural pessimism is the received view. This paper makes a series of arguments that we should expect our cultural products (e.g. art or cuisine) to be on an upwards trajectory, just as RGDP per capita is. To do so, I expand on Bill James’s “Peripheral Quality Indicia” in order to argue that analogous indicators for our cultural products strongly suggest that they have improved. I also claim that RGDP per capita is itself a peripheral quality indicium for essentially any good in the economy. I then sketch the conditions under which cultural products are actually lower in quality today than they were in previous periods in order to demonstrate the general unlikelihood of quality declining.
人均实际国内生产总值的增长数据表明生活水平的提高。尽管如此,人们普遍认为文化悲观主义。本文提出了一系列论点,即我们应该期望我们的文化产品(如艺术或美食)像人均RGDP一样处于上升轨道。为此,我扩展了Bill James的“外围质量指标”,以证明我们文化产品的类似指标强烈表明它们已经改善。我还声称,人均RGDP本身就是经济中任何商品的外围质量指标。然后,我勾勒出当今文化产品质量实际上低于前一时期的条件,以证明质量下降的可能性普遍不大。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous coalitions and social revolutions 异质联盟与社会革命
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-03-24 DOI: 10.1177/10434631211001576
R. Nieva
We have explained the presence of heterogeneous winning coalitions in social revolutions. In an overcrowded agrarian society, two almost identical non-productive enforcers, the landed political elite, collude and bargain over transfers with one of the two peasants to contest over a piece of land, as property rights for land are not well defined. In any other scenario, neither the grand coalition nor the coalition of two peasants and one enforcer forms, thereby deposing the other enforcer with positive probability. So, social revolutions never occur. If foreign wars weaken an enforcer, such as in China (1911), France, and Russia, adding one unit of capital makes the coalition of the peasant, the now worker, and one of the enforcers (now an industrial political elite) attractive: The excess labor can work with it; the weaker enforcer retaliates less and the stronger one more, if excluded. However, if the weaker one (the still-landed political elite) proposes first, a grand coalition forms in which he or she gets less than the other members do (desertion). There is conflict among peasants and among landed elites; thus, the concept of a coalition is more appropriate than that of a class.
我们已经解释了在社会革命中存在的异质性获胜联盟。在一个过度拥挤的农业社会中,两个几乎完全相同的非生产性执行者,即土地政治精英,与两名农民中的一名串通并讨价还价,争夺一块土地,因为土地的产权没有得到很好的界定。在任何其他情况下,无论是大联盟还是两个农民和一个执行者的联盟,都不会形成,从而以正概率罢免另一个执行器。因此,社会革命从未发生过。如果外国战争削弱了一个执行者,比如在中国(1911年)、法国和俄罗斯,增加一个单位的资本会使农民、现在的工人和执行者之一(现在的工业政治精英)的联盟具有吸引力:多余的劳动力可以与之合作;如果被排除在外,实力较弱的执法者报复更少,实力较强的执法者更多。然而,如果较弱的一方(仍有土地的政治精英)首先提出,就会形成一个大联盟,在这个联盟中,他或她得到的比其他成员少(逃兵)。农民和土地精英之间存在冲突;因此,联盟的概念比阶级的概念更合适。
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引用次数: 2
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Rationality and Society
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