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Is aiming high always a good thing? A behavioral model of aspiration failure with evidence from lower-secondary students in China 志存高远一定是好事吗?以中国初中生为证据的愿望失败行为模型
IF 1.3 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1177/10434631241264122
Shuangda Wei
While extensive research has focused on the impact of educational expectations on academic performance, limited studies have explored the behavioral implications of educational aspirations, which are often presumed to have a monotonically increasing motivational effect. Challenging this conventional view, we leverage recent developments in economic theory to explore the non-monotonic motivational effect of educational aspirations, introducing the concept of “aspiration failure.” We propose a behavioral model that captures this motivational effect within a framework of decision-making under uncertainty, distinguishing between aspirations and expectations. Through regression analysis of data from the China Education Panel Survey (CEPS), we investigate how educational aspirations influence student effort and subsequent academic performance. Our findings reveal an overall positive and increasing motivational effect, after adjusting for multiple socioeconomic and psychological factors. Subgroup analysis indicates that low-achieving students with aspirations for a bachelor’s degree demonstrate greater effort and achieve better outcomes compared with those aiming for a master’s degree or higher, highlighting aspirational failure in the educational context. Consequently, we suggest that students can reach higher levels of behavioral motivation and academic success by adjusting their educational aspirations to more realistic levels instead of pursuing overly ambitious goals.
虽然大量研究都集中在教育期望对学业成绩的影响上,但对教育愿望的行为影响的探讨却很有限,因为人们通常认为教育愿望具有单调递增的激励效果。为了挑战这一传统观点,我们利用经济学理论的最新发展,引入 "愿望失败 "的概念,探讨教育愿望的非单调性动机效应。我们提出了一个行为模型,该模型在不确定条件下的决策框架内捕捉到了这种动机效应,并对愿望和期望进行了区分。通过对中国教育面板调查(CEPS)数据的回归分析,我们研究了教育愿望如何影响学生的努力和随后的学业成绩。我们的研究结果表明,在对多种社会经济和心理因素进行调整后,总体上存在积极的、递增的动机效应。分组分析表明,与那些希望获得硕士学位或更高学位的学生相比,那些希望获得学士学位的成绩较差的学生表现出了更大的努力,并取得了更好的成绩,这凸显了在教育背景下理想的失败。因此,我们建议,学生可以通过调整自己的教育愿望,使其更切合实际,而不是追求过于远大的目标,从而获得更高水平的行为动机和学业成功。
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引用次数: 0
Official media use, political participation, and government trust structure an empirical study based on the attitude of Chinese netizens 基于中国网民态度的官方媒体使用、政治参与和政府信任结构实证研究
IF 1.3 4区 社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1177/10434631241266494
Qian Hu, Yanping Pu
While research has explored the relationship between official media use and hierarchical government trust, there is a lack of studies that delve deeper into the relationship between official media use and government trust structure. Therefore, this study uses data from the 2017-2018 Chinese netizens’ social awareness non-tracking survey and employs rational choice theory and process-based trust mechanisms theory to empirically explore, for the first time, the relationship between official media use and government trust structure, along with its underlying mechanisms. Government trust structure is divided into four categories based on the different levels of trust in the central government and local government: paradoxical government trust, equal distrust, hierarchical government trust and equal trust. Among them, hierarchical government trust can be divided into central-distrust-local-distrust, central-trust-local-distrust, and central-trust-local-trust. The study finds that although hierarchical government trust decreases, it is the dominant form of government trust structure, and central-trust-local-distrust is the dominant form of hierarchical government trust. The transformation of other government trust structures into hierarchical government trust of central-trust-local-trust is associated with official media use, and political participation has a mediating effect in official media use and government trust structure. Our findings not only deepen the understanding of rational choice theory and process-based trust mechanism theory but also expand the comprehensive understanding of government trust structure in authoritarian regimes like China.
虽然已有研究探讨了官媒使用与层级式政府信任之间的关系,但缺乏深入探讨官媒使用与政府信任结构之间关系的研究。因此,本研究利用2017-2018年中国网民社会认知非追踪调查数据,运用理性选择理论和基于过程的信任机制理论,首次实证探讨官方媒体使用与政府信任结构之间的关系及其内在机制。根据对中央政府和地方政府信任程度的不同,将政府信任结构分为四类:矛盾型政府信任、平等型不信任、等级型政府信任和平等型信任。其中,层级式政府信任又可分为中央-不信任-地方-不信任、中央-信任-地方-不信任和中央-信任-地方-信任。研究发现,虽然层级式政府信任有所减少,但仍是政府信任结构的主要形式,中央-信任-地方-不信任是层级式政府信任的主要形式。其他政府信任结构向 "中央-信任-地方-不信任 "的层级式政府信任的转变与官方媒体的使用有关,而政治参与在官方媒体使用和政府信任结构中具有中介效应。我们的研究结果不仅加深了对理性选择理论和基于过程的信任机制理论的理解,而且拓展了对中国等威权体制下政府信任结构的全面认识。
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引用次数: 0
Explaining mobilization for revolts by private interests and kinship relations. A comment on Armandola, Doehne and Rost 用私人利益和亲属关系解释动员起义。对阿曼多拉、多恩和罗斯特的评论
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.1177/10434631241252742
Ricardo Nieva
The authors study the role of kinship relationships in explaining mobilization for a revolt in Basel, Switzerland, in 1691; rebels consisted of a weaker fraction of the elite and individuals with citizen rights. The empirical section shows that revolts are mainly driven by the elite’s distant kin rather than the rebels’ close kin. Allowing for coalition formation, as in the new theory of corruption, conflict, and inequality proposed in this comment, can give an alternative explanation. In the first formal model, we assume “elite” corresponds to the term “enforcer” in the new theory. This is a nonproductive individual who is the strongest in terms of fighting against peasants over a prize in a contest. In this simple model, there are no other players. Thus, this framework predicts that the only rebels would come from within the elite. Historical evidence shows that the marginal elite got stronger relatively and, thus, excluded the oligarchy from the winning coalition to take over the government. The direct application of this model would imply that non-elite members were not part of the rebellion. However, the historical facts presented by Armandola et al. show that non-elite citizens also participated in the revolt. To match these facts in Armandola et al., we allow informally individuals with citizen rights to participate in the rebellion. Peasants, a term also used in the new theory, and marginalized groups (a term only used in the commented paper) in the cities did not participate. Kinship effects are discussed.
作者研究了亲属关系在解释 1691 年瑞士巴塞尔起义动员中的作用;起义者由精英中的较弱部分和拥有公民权利的个人组成。实证部分显示,起义主要是由精英阶层的远亲而非起义者的近亲推动的。本评论中提出的腐败、冲突和不平等新理论中的联盟形成可以给出另一种解释。在第一个正式模型中,我们假定 "精英 "对应于新理论中的 "执行者 "一词。这是一个非生产性个体,在与农民争夺奖品的竞赛中实力最强。在这个简单的模型中,没有其他参与者。因此,这一框架预测,唯一的反叛者将来自精英阶层内部。历史证据表明,边缘精英相对更强大,因此将寡头排除在获胜联盟之外,从而接管了政府。直接应用这一模式将意味着非精英成员不参与叛乱。然而,Armandola 等人提出的历史事实表明,非精英公民也参与了叛乱。为了与 Armandola 等人的史实相吻合,我们允许拥有公民权利的个人非正式地参与叛乱。新理论中也使用了 "农民 "一词,而城市中的边缘群体(仅在评论文章中使用)没有参与。讨论了亲缘关系的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Managing and aggregating group evidence under quality and quantity trade-offs 在质量和数量权衡下管理和汇总群体证据
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1177/10434631241253078
Zoi Terzopoulou, Patricia Mirabile, Pien Spekreijse
Trade-offs between quality and quantity arise in an abundance of contexts concerning group decision making. With the starting point being that group members provide more accurate evidence when they are involved with fewer tasks, team managers often encounter the following dilemma: Should they assign their group members with many tasks (attempting to gather more evidence with lower quality), or with fewer tasks (aiming at receiving less, but more high-quality evidence)? Secondly, what is the optimal way to aggregate the collected evidence from a group, which may be contrasting and varying in accuracy? Should more weight be given to the more accurate group members, or to the larger number of those who provide the same answer? This topic is already studied within the mathematical framework of Terzopoulou and Endriss (2019). In this paper we complement it experimentally, by investigating to what extent people's decision-making patterns are in accordance with the optimal ones proposed by the normative model. Our findings suggest that people understand the task at hand and generally opt for optimal choices, especially in conflict-free cases. Still, a tendency towards overvaluing the importance of additional evidence, despite their accuracy, is observed; this translates into choosing options that align with the majority rule in aggregation problems.
在有关小组决策的许多情况下,都会出现质量与数量之间的权衡。由于小组成员在参与较少的任务时能提供更准确的证据,小组管理者经常会遇到以下两难问题:他们是应该给小组成员分配很多任务(试图收集更多质量较低的证据),还是分配较少的任务(旨在获得较少但更高质量的证据)?其次,从一个小组收集到的证据可能会有很大的反差,准确性也不尽相同,那么汇总这些证据的最佳方式是什么?是应该给更准确的小组成员更多权重,还是给提供相同答案的更多成员更多权重?Terzopoulou 和 Endriss(2019 年)已经在数学框架内研究了这个问题。在本文中,我们通过实验对其进行了补充,研究了人们的决策模式在多大程度上符合规范模型提出的最优决策模式。我们的研究结果表明,人们了解手头的任务,通常会选择最优方案,尤其是在无冲突的情况下。尽管如此,我们还是观察到了一种高估额外证据重要性的倾向,尽管这些证据是准确的;这就转化成了在汇总问题中选择符合多数规则的选项。
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引用次数: 0
Untangling expectations and sacrifices: Ultra-Orthodox men in Israel and the religious club model 解开期望与牺牲:以色列极端正统派男子与宗教俱乐部模式
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/10434631241243282
Yossi Perelman, Chen Goldberg
The ultra-Orthodox population in Israel demonstrates a higher natural growth rate compared to the general population, yet the employment rate among ultra-Orthodox men remains significantly lower. This phenomenon can be attributed to the concept of the religious club model (Berman, 2000), which posits that strict requirements and club goods foster a strong commitment to the religious community. By utilizing individual-level data collected from 256 ultra-Orthodox men and employing K-Means clustering analysis, we identified two distinct types based on their demonstrated levels of voluntary sacrifice which only partially overlapped the club’s formal admission criteria. Our findings illustrate the ultra-Orthodox religious club as inherently limited in its ability to enforce religious norms and prohibitions and as a result it is variably effective in filtering out ‘free riders’ and may not reward nonmembers despite their demonstrably consistently high adherence (‘wannabes’). Our findings also reveal a positive association between wage expectations and the likelihood of ultra-Orthodox men entering the labor market, implying a potential trade-off between earning potential and the extent of social fines. Interestingly, our results also offer insight into the increased adherence to Halacha (Jewish religious law), despite the rise in real wages. Furthermore, our simulation offers policymakers a tool to evaluate the necessary incentives to encourage greater participation of ultra-Orthodox men in the labor market. This has implications for both enhancing economic outcomes and understanding the intricate interplay between religion, social norms, and employment decisions.
以色列极端东正教人口的自然增长率高于普通人口,但极端东正教男子的就业率仍然明显偏低。这一现象可归因于宗教俱乐部模式的概念(Berman,2000 年),该模式认为严格的要求和俱乐部的物品促进了对宗教团体的强烈承诺。通过利用从 256 名极端东正教男子那里收集到的个人层面的数据,并采用 K-Means 聚类分析,我们根据他们所表现出的自愿牺牲水平(仅与俱乐部的正式入会标准部分重叠),确定了两种截然不同的类型。我们的研究结果表明,极端正统东正教宗教俱乐部在执行宗教规范和禁令方面存在固有的局限性,因此在过滤 "搭便车者 "方面效果不一,而且尽管非会员表现出一贯的高遵守率("崇拜者"),俱乐部也可能不会对其进行奖励。我们的研究结果还揭示了工资预期与极端东正教男性进入劳动力市场的可能性之间的正相关关系,这意味着收入潜力与社会罚款程度之间可能存在权衡。有趣的是,我们的研究结果还让我们了解到,尽管实际工资有所增长,但人们对 Halacha(犹太教律法)的遵守程度却有所提高。此外,我们的模拟还为政策制定者提供了一种工具,用以评估鼓励极端东正教男性更多地参与劳动力市场的必要激励措施。这对于提高经济成果以及理解宗教、社会规范和就业决策之间错综复杂的相互作用都具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Martial races as clubs? The institutional logic of the martial race system of British India 武术竞赛是俱乐部?英属印度武术竞赛制度的体制逻辑
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.1177/10434631241242598
Charles Miller
Military institutions can be seen as a solution to a type of principal-agent problem, in which a government principal contracts with a military agent to produce violence on their behalf. Absent extensive monitoring, low effort should be expected from the military agent. This should especially be the case for a mercenary force which cannot rely on patriotism or ideology. Yet the mercenary army of the British-ruled India consistently produced high and dedicated performance. In this paper, I argue that the otherwise curious institution of recruiting predominantly from the so-called ‘martial races’ helps to explain this puzzle. Drawing on Iannaccone’s club goods model, I argue that the martial race recruitment system represented an effective solution to the principal-agent problem by allowing the British to benefit from a repeat business arrangement with a small number of ethno-religious groups whose costly in-group prohibitions and poor outside options helped both to screen out potential shirkers and deter poor performance on the battlefield.
军事机构可被视为一种委托代理问题的解决方案,即政府委托人与军事代理人签订合同,由后者代表委托人实施暴力。在缺乏广泛监督的情况下,军事代理人的努力程度应该很低。对于不能依靠爱国主义或意识形态的雇佣军来说,情况尤其如此。然而,英国统治下的印度雇佣军却始终表现出高度的敬业精神。在本文中,我认为主要从所谓的 "尚武种族 "中招募士兵这一奇怪的制度有助于解释这一难题。借鉴伊纳科内的俱乐部商品模型,我认为武术种族招募制度是解决委托代理问题的有效方案,它允许英国人从与少数民族宗教团体的重复业务安排中获益。
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引用次数: 0
Building a reputation for trustworthiness: Experimental evidence on the role of the feedback rate 建立值得信赖的声誉:反馈率作用的实验证据
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-16 DOI: 10.1177/10434631241232518
R. Jiao, W. Przepiorka, Vincent Buskens
In 25 years, research on reputation-based online markets has produced robust evidence on the existence of the so-called reputation effect, that is the positive relation between online traders’ reputations and these traders’ market success in terms of sales and prices. However, there is an ongoing debate on what the size of the reputation effect means. We argue that the rate of truthful feedback that traders leave after completed transactions is negatively related to the size of the reputation effect. The higher the rate of truthful feedback, the quicker will untrustworthy traders be screened and disincentivized to enter the market. With mostly trustworthy traders entering the market, buyers will demand smaller price discounts from market entrants without a good reputation. We test this mechanism empirically in two laboratory experiments. In both experiments, we systematically vary the probability with which information about sellers’ behavior in an economic trust game is recorded and shown to future interaction partners of these sellers. In the second experiment, we introduce competition among sellers by allowing buyers to choose one of two sellers in each interaction. We find that sellers give discounts to buyers to build or repair their reputation and that sellers who give discounts or have a good reputation are trusted more. However, we do not find support for our hypothesis that a higher feedback rate significantly decreases sellers’ propensity to give discounts. We argue and show in exploratory analyses that this is likely due to the high level of unconditional trust buyers exhibit towards sellers without a reputation. Yet, seller competition increases the propensity to offer discounts among sellers without a reputation the most.
25 年来,对基于声誉的在线市场的研究已经提供了强有力的证据,证明存在所谓的声誉效应,即在线交易商的声誉与这些交易商在销售和价格方面的市场成功之间存在正相关关系。然而,关于声誉效应的大小,人们一直争论不休。我们认为,交易者在完成交易后留下的真实反馈率与声誉效应的大小呈负相关。真实反馈率越高,就越快筛选出不值得信赖的交易者,并抑制其进入市场。随着大多数值得信赖的交易商进入市场,买家会要求没有良好声誉的入市者提供较小的价格折扣。我们在两个实验室实验中对这一机制进行了实证检验。在这两个实验中,我们系统地改变了记录卖家在经济信任博弈中的行为信息并向这些卖家未来的互动伙伴展示的概率。在第二个实验中,我们引入了卖家之间的竞争,允许买家在每次互动中从两个卖家中选择一个。我们发现,卖家会给买家折扣以建立或修复自己的声誉,而给予折扣或声誉良好的卖家更受信任。然而,我们并没有发现支持我们假设的证据,即较高的反馈率会显著降低卖家给予折扣的倾向。我们在探索性分析中论证并表明,这可能是由于买家对没有信誉的卖家表现出较高的无条件信任。然而,卖家竞争会最大程度地增加无信誉卖家的折扣倾向。
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引用次数: 0
Reviewer Acknowledgements 审稿人致谢
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1177/10434631241227279
Andreas Flache, Jonas Stein
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引用次数: 0
Does improved upward social mobility foster frustration and conflict? A large-scale online experiment testing Boudon’s model 提高社会向上流动性是否会助长挫折感和冲突?测试布东模型的大规模在线实验
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1177/10434631231225544
Joel Berger, Andreas Diekmann, Stefan Wehrli
The rise of populism has reignited scholarly interest in the paradox of societal advancement leading to frustration and social tension. Globalization and digitalization have increased social opportunities for parts of the population, but a substantial portion of society feels disadvantaged, resulting in discontent. This study, rooted in Boudon’s model of relative deprivation, examines the mechanisms that fuel this frustration. We conducted an online experiment involving 2114 US-based MTurk participants, in which we manipulated the availability of status positions to create varying degrees of upward social mobility. We also varied group sizes to ensure robustness. We assessed relative deprivation with structural, subjective, and behavioral measures. For example, frustration was measured using the “joy-of-destruction game,” in which subjects had to make the costly decision to destroy part of another player’s winnings. Contrary to the model’s prediction, we found that the proportion of individuals who were worse off, the losers, decreased consistently as mobility increased. This outcome can be attributed to overentry in conditions of low mobility and underentry in conditions of intermediate or high mobility. The losers displayed increased frustration and hostility towards noncompetitors and winners. Intriguingly, winners also exhibited heightened hostility. However, at the aggregate level, hostile behavior did not surge as conditions improved. In our exploratory analyses at the individual level, we identified several distinct patterns. Risk-tolerant individuals and women were more likely to enter competition. Conversely, those with advanced education levels showed a decreased inclination to competitiveness. Risk-tolerant individuals reported greater feelings of frustration and displayed increased hostility. This effect was also observed particularly among politically right-leaning individuals.
民粹主义的兴起再次激发了学者们对社会进步导致挫折和社会紧张这一悖论的兴趣。全球化和数字化增加了部分人口的社会机会,但社会中的很大一部分人却感到自己处于不利地位,从而产生不满情绪。本研究基于布东(Boudon)的 "相对剥夺 "模型,探讨了助长这种不满情绪的机制。我们进行了一项在线实验,共有 2114 名美国 MTurk 参与者参加,在实验中,我们操纵了地位职位的可用性,以创造不同程度的向上社会流动性。为了确保实验的稳健性,我们还改变了实验组的规模。我们通过结构、主观和行为测量来评估相对剥夺感。例如,我们使用 "破坏乐趣游戏 "来测量受试者的挫败感,在该游戏中,受试者必须做出代价高昂的决定,破坏另一名玩家的部分奖金。与模型的预测相反,我们发现,随着流动性的增加,情况较差的个体(即输家)的比例持续下降。这一结果可归因于在低流动性条件下的过度投资,以及在中等或高流动性条件下的投资不足。输家对非竞争者和赢家表现出更多的挫败感和敌意。耐人寻味的是,赢家也表现出更强的敌意。然而,从总体上看,敌意行为并没有随着条件的改善而激增。在个体层面的探索性分析中,我们发现了几种不同的模式。风险承受能力强的个人和女性更有可能参与竞争。相反,那些受过高等教育的人则对竞争的倾向性有所下降。风险承受能力强的人更容易产生挫败感,并表现出更强的敌意。尤其是在政治右倾的人中也观察到了这种效应。
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引用次数: 0
Refined tastes, coarse tastes: Solving the stratification-of-goods enigma 精致的口味,粗糙的口味:破解商品分层之谜
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1177/10434631231220850
Elias L. Khalil
The “Stratification-of-Goods” expresses social ranking where the lower status group consumes almost exclusively coarse goods such as Rambo films while the upper status group consumes almost exclusively refined goods such as Shakespearean plays. The Stratification-of-Goods is an enigma for the social welfare function (SWF)—which also applies at the level of the individual utility function. It is an enigma because it makes SWF and individual utility function ill-defined: there is no single metric that allows us to compare the utility functions across groups, as well as the tastes across a single decision maker (DM), insofar as they are segregated by the refinement of taste. This paper proposes a model that promises to solve the Stratification-of-Goods Enigma. The model, consistent with rational choice theory, starts with DMs who have identical tastes but differ with respect to income level. If income inequality is non-trivial, DMs invest differently in what this paper calls “sophistication capital”—the education needed to appreciate refined goods. The difference in investment in sophistication capital sets in motion dynamics that generates hard-to-reverse status stratification. In this fashion, this paper offers a solid endogenous account that solves the Stratification-of-Goods Enigma.
商品分层 "表达了社会等级,其中地位较低的群体几乎只消费粗制商品,如兰博电影,而地位较高的群体则几乎只消费精致商品,如莎士比亚戏剧。对于社会福利函数(SWF)来说,"商品分层 "是一个谜,它也适用于个人效用函数层面。之所以说它是一个谜,是因为它使得社会福利函数和个人效用函数定义不清:没有一个单一的衡量标准可以让我们比较不同群体的效用函数,以及单个决策者(DM)的品味,因为他们是通过品味的细化来区分的。本文提出了一个有望解决 "商品分层之谜 "的模型。该模型与理性选择理论一致,从具有相同品味但收入水平不同的 DM 开始。如果收入不平等并不严重,DMs 在本文所称的 "复杂性资本"--即欣赏精致商品所需的教育--上的投资就会不同。对高雅资本的投资差异会引发难以逆转的地位分层。通过这种方式,本文提供了一个可靠的内生解释,解决了 "商品分层之谜"(Stratification-of-Goods Enigma)。
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引用次数: 0
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