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Banking on innovation: Listed and non-listed equity investing, evidence from société générale de Belgique, 1850–1934 银行创新:上市和非上市股票投资,1850-1934 年比利时总公司的证据
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101593
Gertjan Verdickt , Marc Deloof

Société Générale de Belgique was the world's first universal bank. It pioneered another innovation: investing in non-listed equity. We use hand-collected data to show that the bank earned significant positive risk-adjusted returns from 1850 to 1934. This offset its flat return on the listed equity portfolio and underperforming bond portfolio. Other Belgian universal banks followed this strategy. As such, we argue that this innovation laid the groundwork for other financial institutions to invest in listed and non-listed assets.

比利时兴业银行是世界上第一家通用银行。它还开创了另一项创新:投资非上市股票。我们利用手工收集的数据表明,从 1850 年到 1934 年,该银行获得了显著的正风险调整回报。这抵消了其上市股票投资组合的平淡回报和表现不佳的债券投资组合。其他比利时全能银行也效仿了这一策略。因此,我们认为这一创新为其他金融机构投资上市和非上市资产奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
How rich were the rich? An empirically-based taxonomy of pre-industrial bases of wealth 富人有多富?基于经验的工业化前财富基础分类法
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101592
Branko Milanovic

The paper uses fifty-three social tables, ranging from Greece in 330 BCE to Mexico in 1940 to estimate the share and level of income of the top 1 % in pre-industrial societies. The share of the top 1 % covers a vast range from around 10 % to more than 40 % of society's income and does not always move together with the estimated Gini coefficient and the Inequality Extraction Ratio. I provide a taxonomy of pre-industrial societies based on the social class and type of assets (land, control of government, merchant capital, citizenship) that are associated with the top classes as well as lack of assets associated with poverty.

本文利用从公元前 330 年的希腊到 1940 年的墨西哥的 53 张社会表格,估算了工业化前社会中收入最高的 1 % 人口所占的比例和收入水平。收入最高的 1%占社会收入的比例从 10%左右到 40%以上不等,而且并不总是与估计的基尼系数和不平等提取率同步变动。我根据与顶级阶层相关的社会阶层和资产类型(土地、政府控制权、商业资本、公民权)以及与贫困相关的资产缺乏情况,对前工业社会进行了分类。
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引用次数: 0
Courts, legislatures, and evolving property rules: Lessons from eminent domain 法院、立法机构和不断演变的财产规则:征用权的经验教训
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101581
Robert K. Fleck, F. Andrew Hanssen

This paper examines judicial and legislative modifications to a specific property rule, the benefit offset, which was widely employed by railroad companies during the 19th century as a way to reduce required compensation for land taken through eminent domain. At the beginning of the railroad boom, all states allowed the benefit offset; by the end of the boom, most states had banned it, some via court decisions, others via legislation. Consistent with a simple model in which a court and a legislature act as (imperfect) agents of the public: 1) challenges to the benefit offset generally began with litigation; 2) all states that litigated the offset eventually restricted it, but not always through litigation; 3) where courts chose to allow the offset, legislation restricted it, often with substantial lags; 4) those lags tended to be longer (i.e., more time passed between litigation and subsequent legislation) when the litigation efforts took place early in the track building process (at which time the offset was more likely to be socially valuable); 5) states that never banned the benefit offset were those where landowners were unlikely to have ever been harmed by the practice (principally western states with vast expanses of public and private land). The model and historical evidence illustrate how a system that grants both the court and the legislature the power to alter property rules can establish a beneficial redundancy that increases the value of modifiable property rules.

利益抵消是 19 世纪铁路公司广泛采用的一种通过征用土地减少所需补偿的方法。在铁路繁荣之初,所有州都允许利益抵消;到繁荣结束时,大多数州都禁止了利益抵消,有些州是通过法院判决,有些州是通过立法。与法院和立法机构作为公众代理人(不完全)的简单模式一致:1) 对福利抵消的质疑通常始于诉讼;2) 所有提起诉讼的州最终都限制了抵消,但并不总是通过诉讼;3) 在法院选择允许抵消的情况下,立法也限制了抵消,但往往有很大的滞后性;4) 这些滞后性往往更长(即,从诉讼到随后的立法之间的时间更长)、4) 当诉讼工作发生在轨道建设过程的早期(此时抵消更有可能具有社会价值)时,这些滞后期往往更长(即诉讼与后续立法之间的时间间隔更长);5)从未禁止效益抵消的州是那些土地所有者不太可能受到这种做法损害的州(主要是拥有大片公共和私人土地的西部各州)。该模型和历史证据说明了一个同时赋予法院和立法机构改变财产规则的权力的制度是如何建立一种有益的冗余,从而提高可修改财产规则的价值的。
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引用次数: 0
Contagion of fear: Panics, money, and the Great Depression 恐惧的传染:恐慌、货币和大萧条
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101589
Fabrizio Almeida Marodin , Kris James Mitchener , Gary Richardson

Despite its centrality in debates about the causes and consequences of the Great Depression, banking panics’ impact on the money supply during this period remains a subject of ongoing debate. Before 1936, the Fed's decentralized structure meant that panics impacted money creation regionally while monetary impulses impacted bank stability nationally. We use this structure and newly digitized data to construct monetary aggregates at the Federal Reserve district level and apply a novel identification strategy that allows us to isolate the panics’ impact on monetary aggregates. We find that panics reduced the money supply by 27%, or in other words, that panics caused most of the decline in the money supply from June 1929 to December 1932.

尽管银行业恐慌在有关大萧条原因和后果的辩论中占据核心地位,但它在此期间对货币供应的影响仍然是一个持续争论的话题。1936 年以前,美联储的分散结构意味着恐慌对货币创造的影响是区域性的,而货币冲动对银行稳定性的影响是全国性的。我们利用这种结构和新的数字化数据构建了美联储地区层面的货币总量,并采用了一种新颖的识别策略,使我们能够分离恐慌对货币总量的影响。我们发现,恐慌使货币供应量减少了 27%,换句话说,恐慌造成了 1929 年 6 月至 1932 年 12 月期间货币供应量的大部分下降。
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引用次数: 0
The Customary Atlas of Ancien Régime France 旧法国习惯地图集
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101588
Victor Gay , Paula E. Gobbi , Marc Goñi

Customary law governed most European societies during the Middle Ages and early modern period. To better understand the roots of legal customs and their implications for long-run development, we introduce an atlas of customary regions of Ancien Régime France. We also describe the historical origins of French customs, their role as a source of law, and their legal content. We then offer some insights into the research possibilities opened by this database.

习惯法在中世纪和现代早期统治着大多数欧洲社会。为了更好地了解法律习惯的根源及其对长期发展的影响,我们介绍了旧制度时期法国的习惯地区图集。我们还描述了法国习俗的历史渊源、其作为法律渊源的作用及其法律内容。然后,我们将就该数据库带来的研究可能性发表一些见解。
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引用次数: 0
Does time heal all wounds? The rise, decline, and long-term impact of forced labor in Spanish America 时间能治愈一切创伤吗?西班牙美洲强迫劳动的兴衰及其长期影响
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101580
Leticia Arroyo Abad , Noel Maurer

For most of human history, free wage labor was uncommon compared to various coercive institutions based on the threat of force. Latin America was no exception to this general rule. A number of scholars argue that past coercive labor institutions explain regional and national divergence within Latin America long after the institutions themselves have disappeared. A review of the literature, however, shows less agreement than is commonly recognized. There is evidence that forced labor on Spanish American mainland collapsed endogenously under its own weight, in which case it may have left few echoes in the present.

在人类历史的大部分时间里,与各种基于武力威胁的强制制度相比,自由雇佣劳动并不常见。拉丁美洲也不例外。许多学者认为,过去的强制性劳动制度在制度本身消失很久之后,仍能解释拉丁美洲的地区和国家差异。然而,对文献的回顾表明,人们的看法并不像通常认为的那样一致。有证据表明,西班牙美洲大陆上的强制劳动在其自身的重压下内生性地崩溃了,在这种情况下,它可能在现在几乎没有留下任何回声。
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引用次数: 0
Linked samples and measurement error in historical US census data 美国历史人口普查数据中的关联样本和测量误差
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101579
Sam Il Myoung Hwang, Munir Squires

The quality of historical US census data is critical to the performance of linking algorithms. We use genealogical profiles to correct measurement error in census names and ages. Our findings suggest that one in every two records has an error in name or age, and human capital is correlated with lower error rates. While errors in age decline across subsequent census rounds from 1850 to 1930, errors in names do not exhibit such trends. Fixing all transcription errors, hence leaving only those errors made at the time of enumeration, would reduce error rates in names by 41 percent. Correcting all names and ages using genealogical profiles leads to 20%–36% more links and fewer false positives. Reassuringly, we find that reducing such errors has a negligible effect on estimates of intergenerational mobility.

美国历史人口普查数据的质量对于连接算法的性能至关重要。我们利用家谱资料来纠正人口普查中姓名和年龄的测量误差。我们的研究结果表明,每两条记录中就有一条存在姓名或年龄错误,而人力资本与较低的错误率相关。从 1850 年到 1930 年的各轮人口普查中,年龄误差都在下降,而姓名误差却没有这种趋势。如果修正所有转录错误,只保留查点时出现的错误,那么姓名错误率将降低 41%。使用家谱档案更正所有姓名和年龄会使链接数增加 20%-36%,误报率降低。令人欣慰的是,我们发现减少这些错误对代际流动性估计的影响微乎其微。
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引用次数: 0
The long-run effects of childhood exposure to market access shocks: Evidence from the US railroad network expansion 童年时期受到市场准入冲击的长期影响:美国铁路网扩张的证据
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101503
Jeff Chan

In this paper, I use the expansion of the US railroad network from 1900 to 1910 and the resulting spatial variation in increased market access to investigate whether economic shocks that occur during childhood have long-run ramifications on later-life outcomes, and the channels through which such effects manifest. I link individuals across the 1900, 1910, and 1940 full-count US Censuses and incorporate an instrumental variable strategy to help isolate the causal effect of market access. I find that, in the short run, sons are less likely to be literate and have more siblings. In the long-run, these sons then become less likely to be well-educated and earn lower incomes. The results of this paper shed light on the mechanisms through which railroad-induced market access and other economic shocks during childhood can impact individuals even in later life.

在本文中,我利用 1900 年至 1910 年美国铁路网的扩张以及由此产生的市场准入增加的空间变化,研究童年时期发生的经济冲击是否会对以后的生活结果产生长期影响,以及这种影响的表现渠道。我将 1900 年、1910 年和 1940 年美国人口普查中的个人联系起来,并采用工具变量策略来帮助分离市场准入的因果效应。我发现,在短期内,儿子识字的可能性较低,而且兄弟姐妹较多。从长期来看,这些儿子受良好教育的可能性更小,收入更低。本文的研究结果揭示了童年时期由铁路引发的市场准入和其他经济冲击甚至会影响个人晚年生活的机制。
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引用次数: 0
De-skilling: Evidence from late nineteenth century American manufacturing 去技能化:十九世纪末美国制造业的证据
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101554
Jeremy Atack , Robert A. Margo , Paul W. Rhode

The longstanding view in US economic history is that the shift in manufacturing in the nineteenth century from the hand labor artisan shop to the machine labor of the mechanized factory led to “labor de-skilling” – the substitution of less skilled workers, such as operatives, for skilled craft workers. Investigating the Department of Labor's 1899 Hand and Machine Labor Study, we show the adoption of inanimate power, which we call “mechanization,” did induce de-skilling at the production operation level. However, while the treatment effect of mechanization was economically and statistically significant, it accounted for only 16 percent of the de-skilling on average in the sample, using our preferred IV estimator. Broadening the scope of our inquiry, we find that variations in the division of labor, as captured by the share of production tasks performed by the average worker, accounted for a substantially larger fraction.

美国经济史上的长期观点认为,19 世纪制造业从手工劳动的工匠作坊向机械化工厂的机器劳动转变,导致了 "劳动力去技能化"--用操作工等技术含量较低的工人取代技术熟练的手工业工人。通过对劳工部 1899 年手工和机器劳动研究的调查,我们发现,采用无生命的动力(我们称之为 "机械化")确实会在生产操作层面导致去技能化。然而,虽然机械化的处理效应在经济上和统计上都很显著,但使用我们首选的 IV 估计器,它平均只占样本中去技能化的 16%。扩大调查范围后,我们发现,由普通工人所承担的生产任务份额所反映的分工变化所占比例要大得多。
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引用次数: 0
Informed investors, screening, and sorting on the London capital market, 1891-1913 1891-1913 年伦敦资本市场上的知情投资者、筛选和分类
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101515
Sturla Fjesme , Leslie Hannah , Lyndon Moore

Thousands of prospectuses offered shares to British investors at the turn of the twentieth century. We find evidence that there were informed investors who participated in the market at this time. Firms that attracted additional investor demand were more likely to be listed on the London Stock Exchange, survive longer, and achieve better long-run equity returns. We find that the exchange screened lower quality firms away from the main board. The lowest quality firms sorted themselves and did not apply to either the London Stock Exchange main or second board.

二十世纪之交,数以千计的招股说明书向英国投资者提供股票。我们发现有证据表明,当时有知情投资者参与了市场。吸引了更多投资者需求的公司更有可能在伦敦证券交易所上市,存活时间更长,取得更好的长期股票回报。我们发现,交易所将质量较低的公司从主板筛选出去。质量最低的公司自行排序,既不申请伦敦证券交易所主板,也不申请第二板。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Explorations in Economic History
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