Explorations in Economic History最新文献

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The impact of World War II Army service on income and mobility in the 1960s by ethnoracial group 第二次世界大战军队服役对20世纪60年代少数民族收入和流动性的影响

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101687

Sergio E. Barrera , Andreas Ferrara , Price V. Fishback , Misty L. Heggeness

We link the 1940 full-count Census to World War II enlistment records and 1969 administrative tax returns to study how WWII service in the Army and Army Airforce impacted the income and mobility of non-Hispanic White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American male Army veterans relative to their non-Army counterparts in 1969. The size of our data set provides enough power to shed new light on previously understudied groups, such as Hispanics, Asians, and Native Americans. In comparisons of Army veterans with non-Army men, Ordinary Least Squares estimates suggest that WWII Army veterans had higher incomes than non-Army men within the same group, and Army veterans were less likely to change counties between 1940 and 1969 than non-Army men within the non-Hispanic White, Black, and Hispanic groups. Worries about selection bias led us to estimate the effects with a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that compares men who were just too young to serve during World War II to men who were just old enough to serve. Those results showed that Army veterans had lower adjusted gross incomes than non-Army men within the non-Hispanic White, Black, and Asian groups, and slightly higher incomes within the Hispanic and Native American groups. The differences varied by type of income. Migration across county boundaries was lower for Army veterans than non-Army men among non-Hispanic Whites, Asians, and Native Americans, and there were only small differences among Blacks and Hispanics.

我们将1940年的全面人口普查与二战入伍记录和1969年的行政纳税申报表联系起来，研究二战期间在陆军和陆军空军服役如何影响1969年非西班牙裔白人、黑人、西班牙裔、亚裔和美洲原住民男性陆军退伍军人的收入和流动性。我们的数据集的规模提供了足够的力量来揭示以前未被充分研究的群体，如西班牙裔，亚洲人和美洲原住民。在陆军退伍军人与非陆军退伍军人的比较中，普通最小二乘估计表明，在同一组中，二战陆军退伍军人的收入高于非陆军男性，并且在1940年至1969年期间，陆军退伍军人比非西班牙裔白人、黑人和西班牙裔群体中的非陆军男性更不可能改变县。对选择偏差的担忧使我们用模糊回归不连续设计来估计影响，该设计将二战期间年龄太小而不能服役的男性与年龄刚好可以服役的男性进行比较。这些结果表明，在非西班牙裔白人、黑人和亚裔群体中，陆军退伍军人的调整后总收入低于非军队男性，而在西班牙裔和美洲原住民群体中，退伍军人的收入略高。这种差异因收入类型而异。在非西班牙裔白人、亚洲人和印第安人中，陆军退伍军人的跨县迁移率低于非军队男性，黑人和西班牙裔之间的差异很小。

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引用次数: 0

Civil rights protests and election outcomes: Exploring the effects of the poor people’s campaign 民权抗议与选举结果：探究穷人运动的影响

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101686

D. Mark Anderson , Kerwin Kofi Charles , Krzysztof Karbownik , Daniel I. Rees , Camila Steffens

The Poor People’s Campaign (PPC) of 1968 was focused on highlighting, and ultimately reducing, poverty in the United States. As part of the campaign, protestors from across the country were transported to Washington, D.C. in 6 separate bus caravans, each of which made stops en route to rest, recruit, and hold non-violent protests. Using data from 1960–1970, we estimate the effects of these protests on congressional election outcomes. In the South, we find that PPC protests led to reductions in Democratic vote share and turnout, while in the West they may have benefited Democratic candidates at the expense of their Republican rivals.

1968年的穷人运动（PPC）专注于强调并最终减少美国的贫困。作为运动的一部分，来自全国各地的抗议者乘坐6辆不同的大篷车被运送到华盛顿特区，每辆大篷车都在途中停下来休息，招募新兵，并举行非暴力抗议活动。使用1960-1970年的数据，我们估计了这些抗议活动对国会选举结果的影响。在南方，我们发现PPC抗议导致民主党选票份额和投票率下降，而在西方，他们可能以牺牲共和党对手为代价使民主党候选人受益。

引用次数: 0

Mobilizing the manpower of mothers: Childcare under the Lanham Act during WWII 动员母亲的人力：二战期间兰哈姆法案下的儿童保育

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101684

Claudia Goldin , Claudia Olivetti , Joseph Ferrie

The Lanham Act was a federal infrastructure bill passed by Congress in 1940 and eventually used to fund programs for the preschool and school-aged children of working women during WWII. It remains, to this day, the only example in US history of an (almost) universal, largely federally supported childcare program. We explore its role in enabling and increasing the labor supply of mothers during WWII using information on the program, war contracts, and employment at the city level. Use of Lanham Act funds for a wartime childcare program was initially controversial. However, the program was eventually well funded per child in average daily attendance and provided generally high-quality care. But it was late to start, limited in scope, and incapable of greatly increasing women’s employment in the aggregate. Childcare facilities were funded more in places that already had higher participation rates of mothers and where the wartime need was the greatest. The impact on the children served is still to be determined.

兰哈姆法案是国会于1940年通过的一项联邦基础设施法案，最终用于资助二战期间职业妇女的学龄前和学龄儿童项目。直到今天，它仍然是美国历史上唯一一个（几乎）普及的、主要由联邦政府支持的儿童保育项目。我们利用该项目、战争合同和城市层面的就业信息，探讨了它在二战期间促进和增加母亲劳动力供应方面的作用。将《兰哈姆法案》的资金用于战时儿童保育项目最初是有争议的。然而，该计划最终为每个儿童的平均每日出勤提供了充足的资金，并提供了总体上高质量的护理。但起步晚，范围有限，总体上无法大幅增加妇女就业。在那些母亲参与率较高以及战时需求最大的地方，托儿设施得到了更多的资助。对所服务儿童的影响仍有待确定。

引用次数: 0

Smithian growth in the little divergence: a general equilibrium analysis 小散度中的史密斯增长：一般均衡分析

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101682

David Chilosi , Carlo Ciccarelli

To address growing concerns on the representativeness of real wages, we generate new estimates of GDP pc in pre-industrial England and Italy, as well as new exploratory estimates for Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Poland, Spain and Sweden, with Groth and Persson's (2016) general equilibrium model. Our results question the robustness of the current theoretical consensus on the “little divergence” and suggest an alternative hypothesis: north-western Europe saw faster Smithian growth than the rest of Europe after 1500.

为了解决对实际工资代表性日益增长的担忧，我们对工业化前的英国和意大利的GDP pc进行了新的估计，并对比利时、芬兰、法国、德国、荷兰、葡萄牙、波兰、西班牙和瑞典进行了新的探索性估计，采用了growth and Persson（2016）的一般均衡模型。我们的研究结果对目前关于“小差异”的理论共识的可靠性提出了质疑，并提出了另一种假设：1500年后，欧洲西北部的斯密式增长比欧洲其他地区更快。

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Monetary policy at the periphery during the Classical Gold Standard: Italy (1894–1913) 古典金本位制时期外围国家的货币政策：意大利（1894-1913）

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101680

Paolo Di Martino , Fabio C. Bagliano

This paper analyzes monetary policy in Italy between 1894 and WWI by focusing on the main bank of issue at the time (the Banca d’Italia, BdI) and the Treasury. We show that the Treasury set multiple official rates, and the BdI determined an ”effective” rate transmitted to the market by discounting different bills to the various rates; we provide an original measure of this rate based on primary sources. The BdI changed its rate in response to the domestic market rate (although with a milder reaction than the Treasury), the stock of money in circulation, and its reserve coverage ratio. Changes in the official discount rates in France and Germany also triggered relatively modest reactions. Neither the exchange rate nor the state of the domestic economy affected the setting of the rate. Until the turn of the century, the BdI only targeted corporate goals of profitability and financial soundness, while it also pursued policy aims afterward. In this context, the bank set the discount rate to accumulate reserves for market interventions.

本文分析了1894年至第一次世界大战期间意大利的货币政策，重点关注当时的主要发行银行（意大利银行，BdI）和财政部。我们表明，财政部设定了多个官方利率，而BdI通过将不同的票据贴现为各种利率来确定传递给市场的“有效”利率；我们根据原始资料提供了这一比率的原始度量。央行根据国内市场利率（尽管其反应比财政部温和）、流通货币存量和存款准备金率调整了其利率。法国和德国官方贴现率的变化也引发了相对温和的反应。汇率和国内经济状况都不影响汇率的设定。在世纪之交之前，BdI只以企业盈利能力和财务健全性为目标，之后还会追求政策目标。在这种情况下，银行设定贴现率，为市场干预积累准备金。

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The world’s first global safe asset: British public debt, 1718-1913 世界上第一个全球安全资产：英国国债，1718-1913

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101679

Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez , Gabriel Mathy

This study assesses whether British public debt featured a convenience yield during the Classical Gold Standard before World War I, as the US does in modern times. The empirical results support this thesis. Increases in the British debt-to-GDP ratio decreased the convenience yield on British public debt by between 8 and 20 basis points, qualitatively similar to the behavior of US public debt yields post-1926. Interestingly, the relationship between US yields and US public debt during the Classical Gold Standard counters previous findings for modern US times. The international public debt yield spreads between other Gold Standard core countries and Britain were consistently positive and averaged 55 basis points, even though currency and sovereign risk were negligible at that time for the chosen countries.

这项研究评估了英国公共债务在第一次世界大战前的古典金本位时期是否具有便利收益率，就像美国在现代所做的那样。实证结果支持本文的观点。英国债务与gdp之比的上升，使英国公共债务的便利收益率下降了8至20个基点，在质量上与1926年后美国公共债务收益率的表现相似。有趣的是，古典金本位时期美国国债收益率与美国公共债务之间的关系，与美国现代的先前发现相反。其他金本位制核心国家与英国之间的国际公债收益率差一直为正，平均为55个基点，尽管当时这些国家的货币和主权风险可以忽略不计。

引用次数: 0

Do local conditions determine the direction of science? Evidence from U.S. land grant colleges 地方条件决定科学的方向吗？来自美国赠地大学的证据

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101669

Michael J. Andrews , Alexa Smith

We quantify the extent to which land grant colleges were located in counties that grow different crops than the rest of their states, which we call agricultural unrepresentativeness. We find that land grant colleges located in agriculturally unrepresentative counties tended to produce research focusing on more unrepresentative crops. We find similar results when exploiting historical college site selection natural experiments to identify exogenous variation in the agricultural unrepresentativeness of the college county. Moreover, we find that colleges in agriculturally unrepresentative locations created more geographically limited productivity spillovers.

我们量化了土地补助大学位于种植不同于其他州作物的县的程度，我们称之为农业不代表性。我们发现，位于农业不具代表性的县的赠地学院倾向于研究更不具代表性的作物。我们利用历史大学选址自然实验来确定大学县农业不代表性的外生变异，也得到了类似的结果。此外，我们发现，在农业不具代表性的地区，大学产生的生产力溢出效应在地理上更有限。

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Socioeconomic differences in population growth in 19th century Liaoning, China: a decomposition 19世纪辽宁人口增长的社会经济差异：一个分解

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101678

Cameron Campbell , James Z. Lee

We decompose population growth in 19th century Liaoning in northeast China into the shares accounted for by different socioeconomic groups, and by time periods with different economic conditions as reflected in grain prices. This decomposition reveals who benefitted the most when social and economic conditions supported population increase. Previous studies of one region for which relevant data are available, northeast China, showed that birth and death rates varied according to community, household, and individual context, but did not investigate differences in growth rates by context, or the shares of population growth accounted for by each group. Using the same dataset, we decompose population growth by synthesizing differentials in mortality and fertility into estimates of implied growth rates of population subgroups and the shares of total population growth they account for. This decomposition framework can be applied in any setting where household registers or other sources allow for the measurement of the mortality and fertility rates of population subgroups at fixed points of time. We show that advantaged socioeconomic groups contributed disproportionately to population growth in northeast China, and that more growth took place when harvests were good, that is when grain prices were low. Even though mortality and fertility responses to grain price fluctuations varied across subgroups, there is no evidence of differential response of growth rates to these fluctuations. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for our understanding of population dynamics in the late Qing.

我们将19世纪东北辽宁省的人口增长分解为不同社会经济群体所占的份额，以及不同经济条件下粮食价格所反映的时期。这种分解表明，当社会和经济条件支持人口增长时，谁受益最大。先前对中国东北一个有相关数据的地区的研究表明，出生率和死亡率因社区、家庭和个人背景而异，但没有调查不同背景下增长率的差异，也没有调查每个群体占人口增长的份额。使用相同的数据集，我们通过综合死亡率和生育率的差异来分解人口增长，从而估计人口子群体的隐含增长率及其占总人口增长的份额。这一分解框架可适用于户籍或其他来源允许在固定时间点测量人口分组死亡率和生育率的任何环境。我们的研究表明，在中国东北，社会经济条件优越的群体对人口增长的贡献不成比例，而且在粮食收成好的时候，也就是粮食价格低的时候，人口增长会更多。尽管死亡率和生育率对粮食价格波动的反应在各个亚组之间有所不同，但没有证据表明增长率对这些波动的反应存在差异。最后，我们讨论了我们的发现对我们理解晚清人口动态的意义。

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引用次数: 0

Fertility and mortality responses to short-term economic stress: Evidence from two Hungarian sample populations, 1819-1914 生育率和死亡率对短期经济压力的反应：来自1819-1914年两个匈牙利样本人群的证据

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101671

Péter Őri, Levente Pakot

Demographic response to short-term price fluctuations can be interpreted as an indicator of living standards in pre-modern societies. In this paper, we demonstrate how childbearing and infant and child mortality responded to changes in rye prices in two nineteenth-century Hungarian sub-regions. We conducted a micro-level demographic analysis based on family reconstitution data and multivariate statistical methods (event history analysis). Our findings reveal that both childbearing and child mortality differed between the two regions, and that both were affected by short-term economic fluctuations, but that the responses depended strongly on local economic, demographic and socio-cultural conditions. Child mortality responded markedly to rising rye prices, but in our Central Hungarian study population with high fertility and high infant and child mortality, this response was stronger than in our West Hungarian study population with more modest child mortality and fertility. At the same time, the mortality response to changing prices increased over time in both populations as a result of local industrialization in the latter and modernization of the surrounding region in the former. An immediate and presumably deliberate fertility response of the landless to rising food prices was more characteristic of the Western study population before 1870 while it was not observed in the Central population. Our results, therefore, emphasize the similarities with evidence from other European or Asian communities, and – at the same time – the importance of local context in explaining our findings.

人口对短期价格波动的反应可以解释为前现代社会生活水平的一个指标。在本文中，我们展示了19世纪匈牙利两个分地区的生育和婴儿和儿童死亡率如何响应黑麦价格的变化。我们基于家庭重构数据和多元统计方法（事件历史分析）进行了微观层面的人口统计学分析。我们的研究结果表明，两个地区的生育率和儿童死亡率都有所不同，两者都受到短期经济波动的影响，但其反应在很大程度上取决于当地的经济、人口和社会文化条件。儿童死亡率对黑麦价格上涨有明显的反应，但在匈牙利中部生育率高、婴儿和儿童死亡率高的研究人群中，这种反应比在儿童死亡率和生育率较低的西匈牙利研究人群中更强烈。与此同时，由于后者的地方工业化和前者周围地区的现代化，两种人口对价格变化的死亡率随时间而增加。1870年以前的西部研究人口中，无地人口对不断上涨的食品价格做出了直接且可能是有意为之的生育反应，而在中部人口中则没有观察到这种情况。因此，我们的结果强调了与其他欧洲或亚洲社区证据的相似性，同时，在解释我们的发现时，当地背景的重要性。

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The paradox of slave collateral 奴隶抵押品的悖论

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101670

Rajesh P. Narayanan , Jonathan Pritchett

As mobile financial assets, slaves have high liquidation value that makes them desirable as loan collateral. The mobility of slaves also makes them insecure collateral because borrowers could sell slaves to outside buyers or move them beyond the reach of creditors. We contend that creditors balanced the opposing forces of liquidity and security in deciding whether to extend credit against slave collateral. Using an original sample of New Orleans mortgage and sales records, we find that relatively few loans were backed with slave collateral and that slave buyers paid higher interest rates for their loans.

作为流动的金融资产，奴隶具有很高的清算价值，因此可以作为贷款抵押品。奴隶的流动性也使他们成为不安全的抵押品，因为借款人可以把奴隶卖给外部买家，或者把奴隶转移到债权人无法触及的地方。我们认为，债权人在决定是否以奴隶抵押品为抵押延长信贷时，平衡了流动性和安全性的对立力量。使用新奥尔良抵押贷款和销售记录的原始样本，我们发现有奴隶抵押品支持的贷款相对较少，奴隶买家为他们的贷款支付更高的利率。

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