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Democracy, autocracy, and sovereign debt: How polity influenced country risk on the peripheries of the global economy, 1870–1913 民主、独裁和主权债务:1870-1913年,政治如何影响全球经济边缘的国家风险
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101449
Ali  Coşkun Tunçer , Leonardo Weller

This article tests the influential democratic advantage hypothesis – that democratic governments have historically borrowed more cheaply than autocratic governments – in the context of the first financial globalization, from circa 1870 to 1913. We construct indicators of political regime types, then regress government bond spreads of 27 independent capital-importing countries on them. In contrast with the mainstream literature, the results suggest that democracies were associated with higher country risk. Our findings indicate that autocratic regimes had a significant advantage: democracies paid 5.7% more on their debt than autocracies, controlling for several financial and political variables. This gap is the equivalent of 35.4% of the negative effect defaults had on credit costs. Our conclusions hold when allowing for different definitions of political regime type and bond spreads. The correlations identified also find support in qualitative evidence, according to which creditors favored autocracies for being politically more stable than democracies.

本文在1870年至1913年第一次金融全球化的背景下,检验了有影响力的民主优势假说——民主政府在历史上比专制政府借贷成本更低。本文构建了政权类型指标,并对27个独立资本输入国的国债息差进行了回归。与主流文献相反,研究结果表明,民主政体与较高的国家风险相关。我们的研究结果表明,专制政权具有显著的优势:在控制了几个金融和政治变量的情况下,民主国家比专制国家多支付5.7%的债务。这一差额相当于违约对信贷成本的负面影响的35.4%。我们的结论在考虑政体类型和债券利差的不同定义时成立。所发现的相关性也得到了定性证据的支持,根据定性证据,债权人更喜欢专制国家,因为它在政治上比民主国家更稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Arresting the Sword of Damocles: The transition to the post-Malthusian era in Denmark 抓住达摩克利斯之剑:丹麦向后马尔萨斯时代的过渡
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101437
Peter Sandholt Jensen , Maja Uhre Pedersen , Cristina Victoria Radu , Paul Richard Sharp

The Malthusian model is the subject of a fierce debate within economic history. Although the positive causal relationship postulated from living standards to population growth is relatively uncontroversial for preindustrial societies, this cannot be said for the other key relationship, diminishing returns due to fixed supplies of land. We argue that Denmark, which was characterized by extreme resource and environmental constraints until the final decades of the eighteenth century, provides an ideal setting for testing whether any society was ever truly Malthusian. We employ a cointegrated VAR model on Danish data from 1731 to 1800, finding evidence for diminishing returns until ca. 1775. Yet this relationship disappears in the late-eighteenth century, consistent with an increasing pace of technological progress and the emergence of what Unified Growth Theory has termed the “post-Malthusian” era.

马尔萨斯模型是经济史上激烈争论的主题。虽然假定的生活水平与人口增长之间的正因果关系对于前工业化社会来说是相对没有争议的,但对于另一个关键关系,即固定土地供应导致的收益递减,就不能这么说了。我们认为,直到18世纪最后几十年,丹麦的特点是极度的资源和环境限制,这为检验是否有任何社会曾经是真正的马尔萨斯社会提供了一个理想的环境。我们对1731年至1800年的丹麦数据采用协整VAR模型,找到了直到大约1775年收益递减的证据。然而,随着技术进步步伐的加快和统一增长理论所称的“后马尔萨斯”时代的出现,这种关系在18世纪晚期消失了。
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引用次数: 2
Estimates of employment gains attributable to beer legalization in spring 1933 1933年春天啤酒合法化带来的就业增长估计
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101427
Eline Poelmans , Jason E. Taylor , Samuel Raisanen , Andrew C. Holt

In April 1933, eight months prior to the end of Prohibition, states within the US gained the ability to legalize 3.2 percent alcohol beer. Proponents of legalization predicted that the brewer's dray would bring jobs along with beer. We estimate that legalization brought around 81,000 jobs between April and June of 1933, 60,000 of which were created in April, when the nation emerged from the trough of the Great Depression. This suggests that around 5.6 percent of nationwide non-agricultural spring employment gains, and around 15 percent of April job gains, were associated with beer legalization. Thus, this very early New Deal policy played an important supporting role in helping the nation turn the corner toward recovery.

1933年4月,禁酒令结束前8个月,美国各州获得了3.2%酒精啤酒合法化的权利。支持大麻合法化的人预测,啤酒行业的发展将带来就业机会。我们估计,在1933年4月至6月期间,合法化带来了大约81,000个就业机会,其中60,000个是在4月份创造的,当时美国正从大萧条的低谷中走出来。这表明,春季全国非农就业增长中约有5.6%,四月份就业增长中约有15%与啤酒合法化有关。因此,这项早期的新政政策在帮助国家走出困境走向复苏方面发挥了重要的支持作用。
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引用次数: 3
Church politics, sectarianism, and judicial terror: The Scottish witch-hunt, 1563 - 1736 教会政治、宗派主义和司法恐怖:苏格兰的政治迫害,1563 - 1736
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101447
Parashar Kulkarni , Steven Pfaff

We examine a tumultuous period in Scottish history beginning from the Reformation in 1560 until a few years after the Revolution of 1688. During this period, the Crown repeatedly provoked political crises by attempting to impose an episcopal structure on the Church of Scotland. Using time series data of witch accusations, we find that the Scottish Presbyterians were substantially more active in persecuting alleged witches during periods when they were excluded from power. Although monopoly churches can be instruments of state-making and social order, our results show that the disciplinary instruments of an established church can be turned against the state. In polities divided by factional religious conflict the suppression of sectarian groups can lead them to impose religious discipline as a counterweight to state formation.

我们考察了苏格兰历史上从1560年宗教改革开始到1688年革命后几年的动荡时期。在此期间,国王多次挑起政治危机,试图将主教结构强加于苏格兰教会。利用女巫指控的时间序列数据,我们发现,在苏格兰长老会被排除在权力之外的时期,他们实际上更积极地迫害被指控的女巫。虽然垄断教会可以成为国家建立和社会秩序的工具,但我们的研究结果表明,一个国教的纪律工具可以用来反对国家。在因宗派宗教冲突而分裂的政体中,对宗派团体的镇压可能导致他们强加宗教纪律,以制衡国家的形成。
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引用次数: 0
Who donates to revolutionaries? Evidence from post-1916 Ireland 谁给革命者捐款?来自1916年后爱尔兰的证据
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101435
Enda Patrick Hargaden

This paper analyzes the determinants of providing financial support to revolutionaries, using a hand-compiled dataset of 17,000 donations to the Irish National Aid Association after the Easter Rising of 1916. Financial support is best predicted by literacy, marital status, religious affiliation, and relatively high socio-economic status. In this sense, donations to revolutionaries share some characteristics of a luxury good. I find evidence that long-run historical grievances (the Great Famine) also predict support.

本文分析了向革命者提供财政支持的决定因素,使用了1916年复活节起义后向爱尔兰国家援助协会(Irish National Aid Association)捐赠的1.7万笔手工编制的数据集。经济支持最好通过识字、婚姻状况、宗教信仰和相对较高的社会经济地位来预测。从这个意义上说,对革命者的捐赠有一些奢侈品的特征。我发现有证据表明,长期的历史不满(大饥荒)也预示着支持。
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引用次数: 1
Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99 估计近代早期与战争有关的平民死亡率:来自低地国家的证据,1620 - 1699
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101425
Bram van Besouw, Daniel R. Curtis

Early modern warfare in Western Europe exposed civilian populations to violence, hardship, and disease. Despite limited empirical evidence, the ensuing mortality effects are regularly invoked by economic historians to explain patterns of economic development. Using newly collected data on adult burials and war events in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, we estimate early modern war-driven mortality in localities close to military activity. We find a clear and significant general mortality effect consistent with the localized presence of diseases. During years with major epidemic disease outbreaks, we demonstrate a stronger and more widely spreading mortality effect. However, war-driven mortality increases during epidemic years are of similar relative magnitude is those in non-epidemic war years. Given the omnipresence of warfare in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, war-driven mortality was remarkably constant rather than a sharp discontinuity. The economic impact of warfare likely played out over the long term rather than driven by sudden large mortality spikes creating rapid structural change.

西欧早期的现代战争使平民百姓面临暴力、困苦和疾病。尽管经验证据有限,但随之而来的死亡率效应经常被经济历史学家用来解释经济发展模式。利用新近收集的关于17世纪低地国家成人埋葬和战争事件的数据,我们估计了现代早期战争导致的靠近军事活动地区的死亡率。我们发现与局部疾病存在一致的明确和显著的一般死亡率效应。在重大流行病暴发的年份,我们显示出更强和更广泛传播的死亡率效应。然而,在流行病年,战争造成的死亡率增加的相对幅度与非流行病战争年相似。考虑到17世纪低地国家战争的无所不在,战争导致的死亡率是非常稳定的,而不是急剧的间断。战争对经济的影响可能是长期的,而不是由死亡率突然大幅上升造成的快速结构变化所驱动的。
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引用次数: 1
Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard 民主约束和对古典金本位的坚持
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101436
Bert S. Kramer , Petros Milionis

We study how political institutions affected the decision of countries to adhere to the classical gold standard. Using a variety of econometric techniques and controlling for a wide range of relevant economic and political factors, we find that the probability of adherence to the gold standard before World War I was ceteris paribus lower for countries which were more democratic. This effect can be linked to how open the political process was to different segments of the population and the extent of political competition resulting from that. The effect was particularly relevant for peripheral countries and it influenced both the decision of countries to adopt the gold standard as well as the decision to suspend it.

我们研究政治制度如何影响国家坚持古典金本位的决定。使用各种计量经济学技术并控制广泛的相关经济和政治因素,我们发现,在其他条件相同的情况下,在第一次世界大战之前,对更民主的国家来说,坚持金本位的可能性更低。这种影响可能与政治进程对不同人口阶层的开放程度以及由此产生的政治竞争程度有关。这种影响对外围国家尤其重要,它既影响到各国采用金本位制的决定,也影响到暂停金本位制的决定。
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引用次数: 0
Unregulated and regulated free banking: Evidence from the case of Switzerland (1826–1907) 不受管制和受管制的自由银行:来自瑞士案例的证据(1826-1907)
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101423
Nils Herger

This paper provides a reassessment of the free-banking history of Switzerland, which included both a period of unfettered competition (1826–1881) and one of strong banknote regulation (1881–1907). Unfettered competition between note-issuing banks gave rise to a fragmented paper-money system, with limited liquidity banknotes. To increase confidence in these notes, the federal government introduced a minimum-reserve requirement and a mutual-conversion rule in 1881. Based on a theoretical model and new empirical evidence, this paper shows that this enhanced regulation came at a cost, as it led to the overissuing of banknotes and an inelastic paper-money supply.

本文对瑞士的自由银行历史进行了重新评估,其中包括一段不受约束的竞争时期(1826-1881)和一段强有力的钞票管制时期(1881-1907)。发钞银行之间不受约束的竞争导致了一个分散的纸币系统,流动性有限的纸币。为了增加人们对这些纸币的信心,联邦政府在1881年引入了最低准备金要求和相互转换规则。基于一个理论模型和新的经验证据,本文表明,这种加强监管是有代价的,因为它导致了纸币的过度发行和纸币供应的缺乏弹性。
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引用次数: 2
Social democracy and the decline of strikes 社会民主和罢工的减少
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101420
Jakob Molinder, Tobias Karlsson, Kerstin Enflo

This paper tests if a strong labor movement leads to fewer industrial conflicts. The focus is on Sweden between the first general election in 1919 and the famous Saltsjöbaden Agreement in 1938, a formative period when the country transitioned from fierce labor conflicts to a state of industrial peace. We use panel data techniques to analyze more than 2000 strikes in 103 Swedish towns. We find that a shift of political majority towards the Social Democrats led to a significant decline in strikes, but only in towns where union presence was strong. The strike-reducing mechanism is related to corporatist explanations rather than increased social spending in municipal budgets.

本文检验了强大的劳工运动是否会导致更少的产业冲突。重点是瑞典在1919年第一次大选和1938年著名的Saltsjöbaden协议之间,这是该国从激烈的劳资冲突过渡到工业和平状态的形成时期。我们使用面板数据技术分析了瑞典103个城镇的2000多起罢工事件。我们发现,政治多数向社会民主党的转变导致了罢工的显著下降,但这只发生在工会势力强大的城镇。减少罢工的机制与社团主义者的解释有关,而不是市政预算中社会支出的增加。
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引用次数: 1
Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1885–2008: Evidence from eight countries 撒哈拉以南非洲的经济增长,1885-2008:来自八个国家的证据
IF 2.3 1区 历史学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101424
Stephen Broadberry , Leigh Gardner

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been absent from recent debates about comparative long-run growth owing to the lack of data on aggregate economic performance before 1950. This paper provides estimates of GDP per capita on an annual basis for eight Anglophone African economies for the period since 1885, raising new questions about previous characterizations of the region's economic performance. The new data show that many of these economies had levels of per capita income which were above subsistence by the early twentieth century, on a par with the largest economies in Asia until the 1980s. However, overall improvements in GDP per capita were limited by episodes of negative growth or “shrinking”, the scale and scope of which can be measured through annual data.

由于缺乏1950年以前总体经济表现的数据,撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)在最近关于相对长期增长的辩论中缺席。本文提供了自1885年以来八个讲英语的非洲经济体每年的人均国内生产总值的估计,对以前对该地区经济表现的描述提出了新的问题。新的数据显示,到二十世纪初,这些经济体中有许多的人均收入水平高于维持生计的水平,与亚洲最大的经济体在1980年代之前的水平相当。然而,人均国内生产总值的总体改善受到负增长或“萎缩”时期的限制,其规模和范围可以通过年度数据来衡量。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Explorations in Economic History
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