Explorations in Economic History最新文献

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Teacher shortages, the business cycle, and teacher demand: A long-run perspective 教师短缺、经济周期和教师需求：一个长期视角

IF 1.7 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101714

Torberg Falch, Bjarne Strøm

This paper examines the historical relationships between teacher shortages, teacher demand, and the business cycle using Norwegian data covering a period of >160 years (1861–2024). We find a procyclical pattern in teacher shortages, in particular for the post-WW2 period. The post-WW2 results imply that doubling the unemployment rate reduces teacher shortage by about 10 percent. The finding corroborates evidence from other countries that the public sector hires employees with higher skills during recessions than during booms. In addition, teacher demand increases teacher shortages, where the finding is similar in OLS-models, IV-models, and a panel data approach for the pre-WW2 period. The results indicate that a ten percent increase in teacher demand raises teacher shortages by about 30 percent in the pre-WW2 period and about 40 percent in the post-WW2 period. The increased effects of teacher demand and the business cycles on teacher shortages over the 160-year-long period appear consistent with the centralization of school financing and teacher wage setting that took place after WW2.

本文利用挪威覆盖160年（1861-2024）的数据，考察了教师短缺、教师需求和商业周期之间的历史关系。我们发现教师短缺存在顺周期模式，特别是在二战后时期。二战后的结果表明，失业率翻倍会使教师短缺减少约10%。这一发现证实了其他国家的证据，即公共部门在衰退期间雇佣的员工技能高于繁荣时期。此外，教师需求增加了教师短缺，在ols模型、iv -模型和二战前的面板数据方法中也有类似的发现。结果表明，教师需求每增加10%，二战前的教师短缺就会增加约30%，二战后的教师短缺则会增加约40%。在160年的时间里，教师需求的增加和商业周期对教师短缺的影响似乎与二战后发生的学校融资和教师工资设定的集中一致。

引用次数: 0

Wars, Depression, and Fascism: Income Inequality in Italy, 1901-1950 战争、萧条和法西斯主义：1901-1950年意大利的收入不平等

IF 2.3 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101715

María Gómez-León, Giacomo Gabbuti

This paper presents yearly estimates of income inequality in Italy from 1901 to 1950. By constructing dynamic social tables, we comprehensively assess inequality across all elements of Italian society and compare Italy with other countries over the same period. In a context of declining inequality across Europe, interwar Italy reveals a trajectory at odds with consolidated narratives: a sharp increase of inequality during World War I, a reversal during 1918–1922, a renewed rise after the Fascist takeover, and new peaks during World War II. Our results allow us to identify sizeable short-term distributive shocks and discuss the political economy of fascist Italy, reinforcing a reinterpretation of interwar inequality trends in Europe and the regressive nature of fascist regimes.

本文给出了1901年至1950年意大利收入不平等的年度估计。通过构建动态社会表格，我们全面评估了意大利社会所有要素的不平等，并将意大利与同期其他国家进行了比较。在整个欧洲不平等程度下降的背景下，两次世界大战之间的意大利揭示了与统一叙述不一致的轨迹：第一次世界大战期间不平等程度急剧增加，1918-1922年期间出现逆转，法西斯接管后再次上升，第二次世界大战期间达到新的高峰。我们的研究结果使我们能够识别相当大的短期分配冲击，并讨论法西斯意大利的政治经济学，加强对欧洲两次世界大战之间不平等趋势和法西斯政权倒退性质的重新解释。

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Natural disasters, missing pupils: Evidence from colonial Jamaica’s school system 自然灾害，失踪学生：来自牙买加殖民时期学校系统的证据

IF 1.7 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101710

Joel Huesler

This paper quantifies how large-scale natural shocks impede human-capital accumulation when state capacity is weak. I assemble a new monthly panel (1892–1942) linking parish attendance, exam scores, and six-hourly HURDAT wind fields. Exploiting quasi-random timing and storm trajectories, I estimate causal impacts with (i) a distributed-lag DiD, (ii) a stacked event study, and (iii) a continuous-intensity triple-difference design. A category 2 hurricane cuts attendance by 3.6% and test scores by 3%, 90% of the exam loss flowing through storm-induced absences. Losses are larger in high-volatility, urban, and agriculture-dependent parishes; each prior hurricane since 1892 leaves a −1.4 pp legacy drop in attendance. Results are robust to alternative metrics, population-weighted damage, placebos, and Fisher tests.

本文量化了在国家能力较弱的情况下，大规模自然灾害如何阻碍人力资本积累。我组装了一个新的月度面板（1892-1942），将教区出勤率、考试成绩和每6小时的HURDAT风场联系起来。利用准随机时间和风暴轨迹，我用(I)分布滞后DiD，（ii）堆叠事件研究，以及（iii）连续强度三差设计来估计因果影响。2级飓风使出勤率下降3.6%，考试成绩下降3%，90%的考试损失是由于风暴导致的缺课。在高波动性、城市和依赖农业的教区，损失更大；自1892年以来，每次飓风都会导致出席人数下降1.4个百分点。结果对替代指标、人口加权损害、安慰剂和Fisher检验都是稳健的。

引用次数: 0

The Inquisition and the decline of science in Spain 宗教裁判所与西班牙科学的衰落

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101699

Gary W. Cox , Valentin Figueroa

A traditional argument that the Spanish Inquisition did not depress scientific research is that Spain experienced its Golden Age (1492–1657) after the Inquisition was formed (1478). Yet the arts, rather than the sciences, flourished; and we argue that the Inquisition had important chilling effects on the latter. Historically focused on persecuting suspected Jews, the Inquisition began refocusing its efforts on Protestantism, especially during the Council of Trent (1545–1563). The discovery of Protestant networks in two Spanish cities in 1557–58 helped fuel an abrupt increase in, and re-targeting of, inquisitorial activity. Scholars should have reacted by limiting their contacts and by exiting certain fields and institutions. To provide evidence for our account, we first document Spain’s decline in STEM fields, relative to the rest of Europe. We then provide the first systematic evidence on scholarly interactions among early modern Spanish book authors, documenting an immediate reduction in interactions after 1559, followed by a downward trend. We also document a significant reversal in a previously upward trend in affiliation with secular educational institutions. Since interacting with others working on similar problems is essential to progress in the sciences, our work helps explain the puzzling disjuncture between the glory of Spanish literary and visual arts during the Golden Age, on the one hand, and the poverty of its contributions to science, on the other.

西班牙宗教裁判所没有抑制科学研究的传统观点是，西班牙在宗教裁判所成立（1478年）后经历了黄金时代（1492年至1657年）。然而，繁荣的是艺术，而不是科学；我们认为宗教裁判所对后者有重要的寒蝉效应。历史上，宗教裁判所的重点是迫害有嫌疑的犹太人，但在特伦特会议（1545-1563）期间，宗教裁判所开始将精力重新集中在新教上。1557年至1558年，在西班牙的两个城市发现了新教网络，这帮助推动了调查活动的突然增加和重新定位。学者们的反应应该是限制他们的接触，并退出某些领域和机构。为了为我们的解释提供证据，我们首先记录了西班牙相对于欧洲其他国家在STEM领域的衰落。然后，我们提供了早期现代西班牙书籍作者之间学术互动的第一个系统证据，记录了1559年后互动的立即减少，随后呈下降趋势。我们还记录了与世俗教育机构联系的先前上升趋势的重大逆转。由于与其他研究类似问题的人交流对科学进步至关重要，我们的工作有助于解释黄金时代西班牙文学和视觉艺术的辉煌与对科学贡献的贫乏之间令人困惑的脱节。

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Can the Great Compression be explained by Wartime Wage Controls? 大压缩可以用战时工资控制来解释吗？

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101691

Chris Vickers , Nicolas L. Ziebarth

The wage controls of the National War Labor Board (NWLB) have been credited with contributing to the decline in income inequality from 1940 to 1950 that occurred along many different dimensions including across regions and occupations. We calculate an upper bound for the effect of the NWLB during this decade by assuming the controls were maximally binding. At the upper bound, the controls could explain an important fraction of cross-region convergence, but they likely had little effect on inequality between occupations. Moreover, because of sorting by race and education into occupations, the controls cannot explain much of the narrowing of the educational skill premium nor the racial gap. We conclude that the controls are not a “one size fits all” explanation for the Great Compression.

国家战争劳工委员会（NWLB）的工资控制被认为对1940年至1950年期间收入不平等的下降做出了贡献，这种不平等发生在许多不同的方面，包括跨地区和职业。通过假设控制具有最大的约束力，我们计算了NWLB在这十年中影响的上限。在上限上，控制可以解释跨地区收敛的重要部分，但它们可能对职业之间的不平等几乎没有影响。此外，由于按种族和受教育程度对职业进行分类，这些控制在很大程度上不能解释教育技能溢价和种族差距缩小的原因。我们得出的结论是，这些控制措施并不是大压缩的“一刀切”解释。

引用次数: 0

Railroads and technology adoption in Meiji Japan 日本明治时期的铁路和技术采用

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101683

Junichi Yamasaki

Railroad access may accelerate technological progress in the industrial sector through various theoretical channels. By digitizing novel datasets of factories and railroad networks in late 19th- and early 20th-century Japan and using the least-cost path between prioritized destinations as an instrument, I find that the distance from railroads in 1892 accounts for 34 percent of the growth in steam power adopted by factories from 1888 to 1902. I also find evidence supporting several mechanisms behind the reduced-form effect, such as the trade channel. The results suggest that railroad construction played a significant role in the rapid technological catch-up of Meiji Japan.

铁路通达可以通过多种理论途径加速工业部门的技术进步。通过对19世纪末和20世纪初日本工厂和铁路网络的新数据集进行数字化，并使用优先目的地之间成本最低的路径作为工具，我发现1892年与铁路的距离占1888年至1902年工厂采用的蒸汽动力增长的34%。我还发现了支持形式减少效应背后的几个机制的证据，比如贸易渠道。结果表明，铁路建设在明治日本的快速技术追赶中发挥了重要作用。

引用次数: 0

Early-life lead exposure and male longevity: Evidence from historical municipal water systems 早期铅暴露与男性寿命：来自历史城市供水系统的证据

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101701

Jason Fletcher , Hamid Noghanibehambari

Several research strands document the life-cycle impacts of lead exposure during early life. Yet little is known about the long-run effects of lead exposure during early life on old-age mortality outcomes. In this study, we employ Social Security Administration death records linked to the full-count 1940 census and document that birth-city lead status negatively affects later life old age longevity. These impacts are larger for cities with acidic water and older pipeline systems that allow higher lead levels to leach into drinking water. Further, we show that the impacts are almost exclusively concentrated on the lead status of the birth-city and not the city of residence later in life. An instrumental variable strategy suggests reductions in longevity associated with birth-city lead status of about 9.6 months. We also find education, socioeconomic standing, and income reductions during early adulthood as candidate mechanisms. Finally, we use WWII enlistment data and observe reductions in measures of cognitive ability among lead-exposed individuals.

一些研究记录了生命早期接触铅对生命周期的影响。然而，人们对早年接触铅对老年死亡率结果的长期影响知之甚少。在这项研究中，我们采用了与1940年人口普查相关的社会保障局死亡记录，并证明出生城市领先地位对晚年生活和老年寿命有负面影响。这些影响对酸性水和老旧管道系统的城市更大，这些管道系统允许较高的铅含量渗入饮用水。此外，我们表明，这些影响几乎完全集中在出生城市的铅地位上，而不是在以后的生活中居住的城市。一项工具变量策略表明，与出生城市领先状态有关的寿命减少约9.6个月。我们还发现，在成年早期，教育、社会经济地位和收入减少是可能的机制。最后，我们使用第二次世界大战的入伍数据，观察铅暴露个体的认知能力指标的降低。

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The economic power of elites, human capital, and industrial change in late Imperial Russia 俄罗斯帝国晚期精英、人力资本和工业变革的经济力量

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101697

Viktor Malein

This paper studies the economic impacts of land ownership concentration among the aristocratic elite in the Russian Empire. I document that areas with a higher concentration of noble land ownership were associated with lower levels of primary education during 1880–1911. Exploring the mechanisms, I show that by controlling local governments the landed elites decreased public spending on education, shifting the financial burden to peasant households in the 1880s–1890s. I also demonstrate that the extension of school provision through a government program of schooling subsidies after 1905 led to a relatively large increase in enrollment rates in regions with high noble landownership concentration, suggesting initial underinvestment in education in these areas. Finally, the paper identifies a significant negative influence of landed elites on industrial growth and firm productivity, with up to 56% of this effect attributable to the human capital channel.

本文研究了俄罗斯帝国贵族精英的土地所有权集中对经济的影响。我的文献表明，在1880-1911年间，贵族土地所有权集中度较高的地区，其小学教育水平较低。通过对机制的探索，我发现，在19世纪80年代至90年代，土地精英通过控制地方政府，减少了公共教育支出，将财政负担转移到了农民家庭身上。我还证明，1905年之后，通过政府的教育补贴计划扩大了学校的供应，导致贵族土地所有权高度集中的地区入学率相对大幅上升，这表明这些地区最初的教育投资不足。最后，本文确定了土地精英对产业增长和企业生产率的显著负面影响，其中高达56%的影响可归因于人力资本渠道。

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The long campaign: Britain’s fight to end the slave trade 漫长的战役：英国为结束奴隶贸易而战

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101694

Yi Jie Gwee , Hui Ren Tan

For much of the 19th century, Britain fought to suppress the trans-Atlantic slave trade, sending ships from the Royal Navy to intercept slavers along the African coast. Digitizing archival data, we show that this suppression campaign started small but grew in strength over time, eventually involving more than 14 percent of the Navy’s fleet. Exploiting the distance between slave voyages and British bases as well as when these bases were established, we find that the campaign raised the likelihood of capture among slavers but did not stop the slave trade as a whole. Instead, changes in the demand for slaves played a bigger role in ending the trade. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that Britain persisted with its costly naval campaign for ideological reasons.

在19世纪的大部分时间里，英国一直在打击跨大西洋的奴隶贸易，派出皇家海军的船只在非洲海岸拦截奴隶贩子。通过对档案数据进行数字化处理，我们发现，这场镇压行动一开始规模很小，但随着时间的推移，力度越来越大，最终涉及超过14%的海军舰队。利用奴隶航行和英国基地之间的距离以及这些基地建立的时间，我们发现这场运动提高了奴隶捕获的可能性，但并没有从整体上阻止奴隶贸易。相反，对奴隶需求的变化在结束奴隶贸易方面发挥了更大的作用。最后，我们提供了暗示性的证据，表明英国出于意识形态原因坚持其代价高昂的海军战役。

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Introduction to special issue of explorations in economic history on the impacts of World War II on the U.S. economy 导论特刊探讨经济史上第二次世界大战对美国经济的影响

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101700

William J. Collins , Andreas Ferrara , Price V. Fishback

World War II was one of the greatest crises in American history. The United States devoted an enormous amount of resources to fight the war with long range consequences for the economy. This is the introduction to a special issue on the impact of the U.S. involvement in World War II. It provides context for the papers in the issue. The papers address the experiences of veterans of various races and ethnicities later in life; the impact of the war on the longevity of black veterans and citizens; war programs devoted to providing care and education to young children; war bonds and their impact on the financial system; the influence of pipeline projects on development; the effect of wage regulations on the income distribution, and the effect of war mobilization on productivity gains at the national and regional levels.

第二次世界大战是美国历史上最大的危机之一。美国投入了大量的资源来打这场对经济造成长期影响的战争。这是一期关于美国卷入第二次世界大战影响的特刊的导言。它为本期的论文提供了背景。这些论文讲述了不同种族和民族的退伍军人在以后的生活中的经历；战争对黑人退伍军人和公民寿命的影响；致力于为儿童提供照顾和教育的战争项目；战争债券及其对金融体系的影响；管道项目对发展的影响；工资管制对收入分配的影响，以及战争动员对国家和地区一级生产率提高的影响。

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