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Incredible commitment: Influence accumulation, consensus-making, and the collapse of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth 难以置信的承诺:影响力的积累,共识的形成,以及波兰立陶宛联邦的崩溃
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101633
Mikołaj Malinowski
I aim to explain the petrification of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth's parliament due to the veto in the 17th and 18th centuries. I study genealogical data on senatorial ancestors and identify the formation of an oligarchic elite. I propose that the accumulation of influence by powerful individuals undermined their vested interest in the state's continuation. This weakened the elite's ability to credibly commit to political agreements, reach consensus, and sustain the extractive regime. I argue that the overly limited king failed to act as an arbiter in oligarchic disputes. This challenges the conventional view regarding the benefits of limited royal authority.
我的目的是解释波兰立陶宛联邦议会在17世纪和18世纪由于否决权而僵化的原因。我研究了元老院祖先的家谱数据,并确定了寡头精英的形成。我认为,权势人物影响力的积累削弱了他们对国家延续的既得利益。这削弱了精英阶层可信地承诺政治协议、达成共识和维持榨取政权的能力。我认为,过度受限的国王未能在寡头纷争中充当仲裁者。这挑战了关于有限的王室权力的好处的传统观点。
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引用次数: 0
The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany 1918年德国魏玛流感大流行的政治影响
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101648
Stefan Bauernschuster , Matthias Blum , Erik Hornung , Christoph Koenig
How did the 1918 Influenza pandemic affect elections in Weimar Germany? We combine a panel of election results (1893–1933) with spatial heterogeneity in excess flu mortality to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards leftwing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents, or political polarization are not supported by our findings.
1918年流感大流行如何影响魏玛德国的选举?我们将一组选举结果(1893-1933)与流感死亡率的空间异质性相结合,以评估流感大流行对各选区投票行为的影响。采用动态差异中的差异方法,我们发现流感死亡率较高的地区出现了向左翼政党的持续转变。我们认为,大流行的强度增加了公共卫生政策的重要性,促使选民奖励在卫生问题上表现出能力的政党。其他解释,如流行病导致的经济困难,现任者的惩罚或政治两极分化,都没有得到我们的研究结果的支持。
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引用次数: 0
The escape from hunger: The impact of food prices on well-being in Sweden, 1813–1967 摆脱饥饿:1813-1967年瑞典食品价格对幸福的影响
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101652
Tommy Bengtsson, Luciana Quaranta
This study analyses how the standard of living for different social groups changed when Sweden developed from an agricultural to an industrial society and when the first steps towards a modern welfare society were taken. As a measure of living standards, we use the ability to overcome short-term economic stress caused by high food prices. We use individual-level longitudinal data from 1813 to 1967 for a rural/semi-urban area in southern Sweden with similar economic development, occupational structure, life expectancy and fertility to the country as a whole. We found that during the first part of the 19th century, when agriculture was reformed and grain became an export product, workers, but not farmers and other social groups, deliberately postponed births in response to rising food prices. Despite these efforts to maintain consumption, workers and their families suffered increased mortality risks during years of high food prices, indicating that they lived close to the subsistence margin and could not save to ensure consumption in bad times. In the second half of the 19th century, rising real wages improved workers’ living conditions and the mortality response to economic stress decreased. By the 20th century, as the economy progressed and welfare systems emerged, the mortality response disappeared entirely. In contrast, childbearing was still affected by economic cycles but now only during turmoil of the First World War and the 1918 influenza pandemic and not afterwards.
本研究分析了当瑞典从农业社会发展到工业社会以及向现代福利社会迈出第一步时,不同社会群体的生活水平是如何变化的。作为衡量生活水平的一项指标,我们利用这种能力来克服高粮价造成的短期经济压力。我们使用了1813年至1967年瑞典南部农村/半城市地区的个人纵向数据,这些地区的经济发展、职业结构、预期寿命和生育率与整个国家相似。我们发现,在19世纪上半叶,当农业改革、粮食成为出口产品时,工人(而不是农民和其他社会群体)故意推迟生育,以应对不断上涨的食品价格。尽管为维持消费作出了这些努力,但在粮食价格高企的年份,工人及其家庭面临的死亡风险增加,这表明他们的生活接近维持生计的边缘,在困难时期无法储蓄以确保消费。19世纪下半叶,实际工资的上涨改善了工人的生活条件,经济压力导致的死亡率下降。到了20世纪,随着经济的发展和福利制度的出现,死亡率的反应完全消失了。相比之下,生育仍然受到经济周期的影响,但现在只是在第一次世界大战和1918年流感大流行的动荡期间,而不是之后。
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引用次数: 0
Reassessing the great compression among top earners: The overlooked role of taxation and self-employment 重新评估高收入者的巨大压力:税收和自营职业被忽视的作用
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101651
Miguel Artola Blanco , Victor Manuel Gómez-Blanco
This paper provides new estimates of wage inequality in the United States from 1918 to 1949, leveraging a novel top-income methodology that integrates both tax records and census data. Our analysis reveals no sustained decline in wage inequality before the Second World War but a marked decrease during the war years. This decline was driven primarily by stagnation among the top 1 % of earners and significant wage growth at the lower end of the income distribution. However, the relative underperformance of the top earners was largely influenced by a major compositional shift triggered by unprecedented increases in corporate and personal income tax rates. These tax changes led to a shift in business preferences toward partnerships, resulting in a substantial transition from salaried employment to self-employment. This shift, previously overlooked in inequality studies, resulted in a 30 % overestimation of wage compression, significantly altering the wage distribution dynamics of the 1940s.
本文利用一种整合了税收记录和人口普查数据的新型高收入方法,对1918年至1949年美国的工资不平等进行了新的估计。我们的分析显示,二战前工资不平等没有持续下降,但在战争年代有明显下降。这种下降的主要原因是收入最高的1%人群的收入停滞不前,而收入分配低端人群的工资大幅增长。然而,高收入者的相对不佳表现在很大程度上受到企业和个人所得税税率空前提高引发的重大构成变化的影响。这些税收变化导致企业偏好向合伙企业转变,导致从受薪就业到自营职业的重大转变。这一转变,以前在不平等研究中被忽视,导致对工资压缩的高估30%,显著改变了20世纪40年代的工资分配动态。
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引用次数: 0
The Aftermath of the February Flood of 1825: Social and Demographic Change in the Krummhörn Region, East Frisia 1825 年二月洪灾的后果:东弗里斯兰克鲁姆霍恩地区的社会和人口变化
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101650
Kai P. Willführ , Josep Sottile Perez
In February 1825, the dikes broke after a spring tide in the Krummhörn region in East Frisia, Germany, causing a severe disaster. Although the flood did not claim many victims, substantial damage was done to the farmland, and the economic crisis that followed permanently changed the social structure in the Krummhörn. We study family reconstitutions of the region linked to information about socioeconomic status, detailed reports of the flood damage, and information on crop prices for the entire study period. We innovate on the literature through our reconstruction of property damage at the parish level, as well as of the economic development in the region, combined with family reconstitutions. We investigate the short-term impact of the flood on marital fertility and child mortality, as well as the long-term impact on age at first childbirth and age at first marriage of individuals who experienced the flood early in life. We use Cox proportional hazard models to study mortality. The timing and the likelihood of transitions are investigated with the help of mixed parametric cure models. We find that child mortality, but not infant mortality, increased in the flood aftermath, but that this increase in mortality was not attributable to the flood-related damage. Furthermore, we find no evidence of changes in the timing of first childbirth or marriage among the affected individuals. These findings contrast with the results of several other studies indicating that external shocks and crisis experience early in life affect life course outcomes.
1825年2月,德国东弗里斯兰Krummhörn地区的堤坝在一次大潮后决堤,造成了一场严重的灾难。虽然洪水没有造成很多伤亡,但对农田造成了严重破坏,随之而来的经济危机永久性地改变了Krummhörn的社会结构。在整个研究期间,我们将该地区的家庭重建与社会经济地位信息、洪水损害的详细报告和作物价格信息联系起来。我们通过重建教区一级的财产损失,以及该地区的经济发展,结合家庭重建,在文学上进行创新。我们调查了洪水对婚姻生育率和儿童死亡率的短期影响,以及对早期经历洪水的个体的第一次生育年龄和第一次结婚年龄的长期影响。我们使用Cox比例风险模型来研究死亡率。在混合参数模型的帮助下,研究了过渡的时间和可能性。我们发现,儿童死亡率,而不是婴儿死亡率,在洪水过后有所增加,但这种死亡率的增加并不能归因于洪水相关的损害。此外,在受影响的个体中,我们没有发现第一次分娩或结婚时间发生变化的证据。这些发现与其他几项研究的结果形成对比,这些研究表明,生命早期的外部冲击和危机经历会影响生命历程的结果。
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引用次数: 0
World War II service and the GI Bill: New evidence on selection and veterans’ outcomes from linked census records 第二次世界大战服务和退伍军人法案:来自相关人口普查记录的选择和退伍军人结果的新证据
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101649
William J. Collins , Ariell Zimran
We examine new datasets of records linked between the 1940 and 1950 US censuses to characterize selection into military service during World War II and to analyze differences in veterans’ post-war educational and labor market outcomes relative to nonveterans. Motivated by potentially disparate selection into and effects of service, we pay particular attention to groups distinguished by age, pre-war educational attainment, race, and nativity. We find that veterans were positively selected on pre-war educational attainment, but negatively or neutrally selected in terms of own or fathers’ pre-war labor market characteristics. Younger veterans fared better in terms of education and labor market outcomes in 1950 than nonveterans who were observationally similar in 1940. Older veterans exhibited relative gains in education compared to observationally similar nonveterans, but not in labor market outcomes. Black veterans’ relative gains in education were large, but black veterans not in school were less likely to be employed than observationally similar nonveterans in 1950. All groups of veterans were more likely to be government employees after the war and were under-represented in self employment.
我们研究了1940年至1950年美国人口普查之间的新数据集,以描述二战期间服兵役的特征,并分析了退伍军人战后教育和劳动力市场结果与非退伍军人的差异。出于对服务的潜在不同选择和影响的动机,我们特别关注按年龄、战前教育程度、种族和出生地区分的群体。我们发现退伍军人在战前教育程度上被正面选择,但在自己或父亲的战前劳动力市场特征上被负面或中性选择。1950年,年轻的退伍军人在教育和劳动力市场上的表现比1940年观察到的相似的非退伍军人要好。与观察到的类似的非退伍军人相比,年龄较大的退伍军人在教育方面表现出相对的优势,但在劳动力市场的结果方面却没有。黑人退伍军人在教育方面的相对收益很大,但1950年,未上过学的黑人退伍军人就业的可能性低于观察到的类似的非退伍军人。所有的退伍军人群体都更有可能在战后成为政府雇员,而在自营职业中所占的比例不足。
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引用次数: 0
Agglomeration and creativity in early modern Britain 近代早期英国的集聚与创造力
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101644
Gary W. Cox , Valentin Figueroa
When did western cities become the engines of creativity modern theorists envision them to be? We approach this issue by investigating how much elite authors benefited from agglomerating in early modern London. Building a new panel dataset documenting the place of residence and annual publications of 2,026 prolific authors over the period 1482–1800, we conduct longitudinal author-level analyses. Our results suggest agglomeration benefits in London’s knowledge economy reached levels comparable to those documented in modern cities by the late 16th century. Exploring mechanisms, we find that moving to London improved opportunities for collaboration and, relatedly, the quality of books produced. We find similar agglomeration economies (and mechanisms) in the towns leading Britain’s industrial revolution in the 18th century (but not before).
西方城市是什么时候成为现代理论家所设想的创造力引擎的?我们通过调查精英作家从早期现代伦敦的聚集中获益多少来解决这个问题。建立了一个新的面板数据集,记录了1482-1800年间2026位多产作者的居住地和年度出版物,我们进行了纵向作者水平分析。我们的研究结果表明,伦敦知识经济的集聚效益达到了与16世纪晚期现代城市相当的水平。在探索机制时,我们发现搬到伦敦改善了合作的机会,并相应提高了图书的质量。我们在18世纪引领英国工业革命的城镇中发现了类似的集聚经济(和机制)(但在此之前没有)。
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引用次数: 0
Are some piece rates better than others? Cross-sectional variation in piece rates at a US cotton factory 有些计件工资率比其他计件工资率高吗?美国一家棉纺厂计件工资的横截面变化
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101631
Joyce Burnette
While piece rates were a common form of payment in manufacturing, historians have rarely tried to understand the cross-sectional structure of piece-rate prices. This paper examines piece rates paid to weavers at a US cotton factory and demonstrates that in most cases expected daily earnings were constant across different piece rates. While some rates did result in higher daily earnings, there is no evidence of gender discrimination in the assignment of such rates.
虽然计件工资是制造业中一种常见的付款方式,但历史学家很少试图了解计件工资价格的横截面结构。本文研究了美国一家棉纺厂支付给纺织工的计件工资,并证明在大多数情况下,不同计件工资的预期日收入是不变的。虽然有些计件价格确实会导致较高的日收入,但没有证据表明在分配计件价格时存在性别歧视。
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引用次数: 0
Reservoirs of power: The political legacy of dam construction in Franco’s Spain 权力水库:佛朗哥时期西班牙大坝建设的政治遗产
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101628
Gema Lax-Martinez
This paper delves into infrastructure projects initiated during the dictatorship in Spain, particularly the construction of reservoirs and dams. These projects were instrumental in bolstering support for right-wing factions advocating for Franco’s regime over the years. However, our research reveals a notable trend: areas where dams were erected by the regime demonstrate diminished political backing for right-wing parties in the post-dictatorship era. We present evidence suggesting that this phenomenon is driven by the use of forced labor in dam construction by the regime, as inferred from the proximity to concentration camps. To address endogeneity concerns, we instrument dam construction with river gradient suitability.
本文深入探讨了西班牙独裁统治时期启动的基础设施项目,尤其是水库和大坝的建设。多年来,这些项目在支持佛朗哥政权的右翼派别方面发挥了重要作用。然而,我们的研究发现了一个值得注意的趋势:在独裁统治后的时代,由佛朗哥政权修建水坝的地区对右翼政党的政治支持有所减少。我们提出的证据表明,这一现象是由于政权在大坝建设中使用了强制劳动力,这一点可以从集中营的邻近程度推断出来。为了解决内生性问题,我们用河流坡度适宜性作为大坝建设的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Wealth and history: A reappraisal 财富与历史:重新评估
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101624
Daniel Waldenström
The study revisits trends and drivers of wealth inequality and accumulation since the onset of industrialization. Empirical analysis reveals that Western countries are both wealthier and more equal today than a century ago. Wealth concentration has declined in all countries over the past century, remaining at historically low levels in Europe, while rising in the United States. These trends are largely driven by new wealth accumulation among the lower and middle classes, primarily through housing and pension savings, rather than a decline in the fortunes of the affluent. The findings challenge the view that unregulated capitalism inevitably leads to extreme wealth concentration and question the idea that wealth equalization requires shocks to capital, such as wars or progressive taxation. Instead, the evidence emphasizes the equitable effects of economic and political institutions that enable ordinary individuals to build personal wealth.
本研究重新审视了自工业化开始以来财富不平等和财富积累的趋势和驱动因素。实证分析表明,与一个世纪前相比,今天的西方国家更加富裕,也更加平等。在过去的一个世纪中,所有国家的财富集中度都有所下降,欧洲保持在历史最低水平,而美国则有所上升。这些趋势主要是由中下层阶级新的财富积累(主要是通过住房和养老金储蓄)驱动的,而不是富裕阶层财富的减少。研究结果对无管制的资本主义必然导致财富极度集中的观点提出了质疑,并对财富均等化需要战争或累进税等资本冲击的观点提出了质疑。相反,这些证据强调了经济和政治体制的公平效应,使普通人能够积累个人财富。
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引用次数: 0
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Explorations in Economic History
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