Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101720
Zhihao Xu
Why do states repay their debts? This paper addresses this question by examining how the Nationalist government partially honored major domestic bonds traded in Shanghai—the Consolidated Bonds—amid hyperinflation in post-World War II China. Three main findings emerge: (1) Bond prices surged exponentially between 1946 and 1948, surpassing traditional valuation benchmarks by tens of thousands of times, as a partial hedge against hyperinflation. (2) Price fluctuations were significantly driven by news indicating that the bonds might be redeemed at multiples of their face values following a prospective currency reform. (3) The Government ultimately responded to public expectations by redeeming the bonds at nominally generous multipliers, which aimed not only to sustain its bond issuance capacity but, more crucially, to preserve a currency system closely tied to its bond creditworthiness at relatively low fiscal cost. These findings suggest that a hybrid of the two principal theories of sovereign debt repayment best explains the experience of China’s Consolidated Bonds.
{"title":"Soaring in rationality: Bonds as a partial hedge against hyperinflation","authors":"Zhihao Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why do states repay their debts? This paper addresses this question by examining how the Nationalist government partially honored major domestic bonds traded in Shanghai—<em>the Consolidated Bonds</em>—amid hyperinflation in post-World War II China. Three main findings emerge: (1) Bond prices surged exponentially between 1946 and 1948, surpassing traditional valuation benchmarks by tens of thousands of times, as a partial hedge against hyperinflation. (2) Price fluctuations were significantly driven by news indicating that the bonds might be redeemed at multiples of their face values following a prospective currency reform. (3) The Government ultimately responded to public expectations by redeeming the bonds at nominally generous multipliers, which aimed not only to sustain its bond issuance capacity but, more crucially, to preserve a currency system closely tied to its bond creditworthiness at relatively low fiscal cost. These findings suggest that a hybrid of the two principal theories of sovereign debt repayment best explains the experience of China’s Consolidated Bonds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101720"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145404598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101719
Ningning Ma , Yiling Zhao
The impact of Catholic missions on modern China’s development remains understudied, unlike that of their Protestant counterparts. This gap in research stems from not only the influence of Weber’s Protestant-ethic thesis but also practical research barriers, as Catholic mission locations are often recorded at sub-county levels or using non-standardized Romanization. This paper introduces two methods to improve geocoding in such cases: cross-referencing local gazetteers and developing a phonetic cross-walk to standardized Romanization. While using publicly available GIS data locate only 47.4% of church sites, our method can be used to identify an additional 39.6% of these sites. This enhanced precision enables a re-interpretation of Catholic missions’ impact in modern China, particularly in comparison with Protestant missions.
{"title":"Catholicism in early 20th century China: A re-examination","authors":"Ningning Ma , Yiling Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101719","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101719","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of Catholic missions on modern China’s development remains understudied, unlike that of their Protestant counterparts. This gap in research stems from not only the influence of Weber’s Protestant-ethic thesis but also practical research barriers, as Catholic mission locations are often recorded at sub-county levels or using non-standardized Romanization. This paper introduces two methods to improve geocoding in such cases: cross-referencing local gazetteers and developing a phonetic cross-walk to standardized Romanization. While using publicly available GIS data locate only 47.4% of church sites, our method can be used to identify an additional 39.6% of these sites. This enhanced precision enables a re-interpretation of Catholic missions’ impact in modern China, particularly in comparison with Protestant missions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 101719"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101718
Marco Martinez , Alessandro Nuvolari , Michelangelo Vasta
This paper provides new evidence on the nexus between railroads and inventive activities in Italy in the period 1861–1936. We develop two new georeferenced datasets on railroad stations and patents covering about 8,000 municipalities. By adopting a staggered difference in differences identification strategy, we show that the impact of railroad construction on innovation is noticeable for the first wave of construction of the period of the Destra storica (1861–1878), when the network was expanded following a state building strategy. However, these effects became noticeable only after two decades and concern mostly independent inventors and low-quality patents. Finally, we show that railroad access fostered innovation, particularly in locations with more advanced pre-existing capabilities.
{"title":"Rails of Progress? Exploring the nexus between railroad access and innovation in Italy (19th-20th centuries)","authors":"Marco Martinez , Alessandro Nuvolari , Michelangelo Vasta","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides new evidence on the nexus between railroads and inventive activities in Italy in the period 1861–1936. We develop two new georeferenced datasets on railroad stations and patents covering about 8,000 municipalities. By adopting a staggered difference in differences identification strategy, we show that the impact of railroad construction on innovation is noticeable for the first wave of construction of the period of the <em>Destra storica</em> (1861–1878), when the network was expanded following a state building strategy. However, these effects became noticeable only after two decades and concern mostly independent inventors and low-quality patents. Finally, we show that railroad access fostered innovation, particularly in locations with more advanced pre-existing capabilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 101718"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145324309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101717
Kasey Buckles , Adrian Haws , Joseph Price , Haley E.B. Wilbert
The Census Tree is the largest-ever database of record links among the historical U.S. censuses, with over 700 million links for people living in the United States between 1850 and 1940. To create the Census Tree, we begin with a collection of high-quality links contributed by the users of a free online genealogy platform, many of which would be difficult or impossible to find using currently available linking technologies. We then use these links as training data for a machine learning algorithm to make new matches, and incorporate other recent efforts to link the historical U.S. censuses. Finally, we introduce a procedure for filtering the links and adjudicating disagreements. Our complete Census Tree achieves match rates across adjacent censuses that are between 69 and 86 % for men and between 58 and 79 % for women—a major breakthrough compared to previous linking efforts. The size of the Census Tree allows researchers in the social sciences and other disciplines to construct longitudinal datasets that are highly representative of the population. We validate the accuracy of these links and provide researchers with a simple tool for choosing their preferred tradeoff between sample size and accuracy. To demonstrate the advantages of the Census Tree, we extend the work of Abramitzky, Boustan, Jácome, and Pérez (2021) to include intergenerational mobility estimates for additional immigrant nationalities and for women.
{"title":"Breakthroughs in historical record linking using genealogy data: The Census Tree project","authors":"Kasey Buckles , Adrian Haws , Joseph Price , Haley E.B. Wilbert","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101717","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101717","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Census Tree is the largest-ever database of record links among the historical U.S. censuses, with over 700 million links for people living in the United States between 1850 and 1940. To create the Census Tree, we begin with a collection of high-quality links contributed by the users of a free online genealogy platform, many of which would be difficult or impossible to find using currently available linking technologies. We then use these links as training data for a machine learning algorithm to make new matches, and incorporate other recent efforts to link the historical U.S. censuses. Finally, we introduce a procedure for filtering the links and adjudicating disagreements. Our complete Census Tree achieves match rates across adjacent censuses that are between 69 and 86 % for men and between 58 and 79 % for women—a major breakthrough compared to previous linking efforts. The size of the Census Tree allows researchers in the social sciences and other disciplines to construct longitudinal datasets that are highly representative of the population. We validate the accuracy of these links and provide researchers with a simple tool for choosing their preferred tradeoff between sample size and accuracy. To demonstrate the advantages of the Census Tree, we extend the work of Abramitzky, Boustan, Jácome, and Pérez (2021) to include intergenerational mobility estimates for additional immigrant nationalities and for women.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 101717"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101713
{"title":"Introduction to special issue of explorations in economic history on wealth and income inequality around the world","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101713","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101713","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 101713"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101721
Laurent Gauthier
This paper seeks to explain ancient Greek-specific manumission patterns that economic models have not yet accounted for. According to epigraphic sources, some slaves were able to retain earnings, which potentially allowed them to purchase their freedom (manumission), but in many cases there was a paramone, a duty to remain with the former master, for several years or until the master’s death. Manumission prices were also well above recorded slave sale prices. I propose a tractable incentive-theoretic account of these phenomena: the income share serves as effort incentive, manumission prices screen ability, and paramone acts as a credibility device that eliminates the master’s financial incentive to unilaterally take all of the slave’s savings. Simulations align with basic facts, reproducing high manumission premia and the substantial share of conditional manumissions in the epigraphic record.
{"title":"Incentives and the economics of freedom: Slave peculium, manumission and paramone in ancient Greece","authors":"Laurent Gauthier","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101721","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101721","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper seeks to explain ancient Greek-specific manumission patterns that economic models have not yet accounted for. According to epigraphic sources, some slaves were able to retain earnings, which potentially allowed them to purchase their freedom (manumission), but in many cases there was a <em>paramone</em>, a duty to remain with the former master, for several years or until the master’s death. Manumission prices were also well above recorded slave sale prices. I propose a tractable incentive-theoretic account of these phenomena: the income share serves as effort incentive, manumission prices screen ability, and <em>paramone</em> acts as a credibility device that eliminates the master’s financial incentive to unilaterally take all of the slave’s savings. Simulations align with basic facts, reproducing high manumission premia and the substantial share of conditional manumissions in the epigraphic record.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 101721"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145435098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper focuses on an early unique experiment of managed float of State-issued money, implemented in Venice between 1619 and 1666. Building on a new hand-collected database from a previously unused archival source, we show that, despite the Venetian Banco ducat’s status as an international currency and the government’s fiscal credibility, the exchange rate was directly and significantly affected by episodes of automatic government deficit monetization during the crises of 1629-31 and 1648-50. This suggests that a contingent commitment regime in which government-managed fiat money mimics a convertible currency can be effective, but is very sensitive to the time-consistency of the monetary-fiscal policy mix.
{"title":"Credibility is not enough: Fiscal monetization and currency depreciation in early-modern Venice","authors":"Donato Masciandaro , Davide Romelli , Stefano Ugolini","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper focuses on an early unique experiment of managed float of State-issued money, implemented in Venice between 1619 and 1666. Building on a new hand-collected database from a previously unused archival source, we show that, despite the Venetian Banco ducat’s status as an international currency and the government’s fiscal credibility, the exchange rate was directly and significantly affected by episodes of automatic government deficit monetization during the crises of 1629-31 and 1648-50. This suggests that a contingent commitment regime in which government-managed fiat money mimics a convertible currency can be effective, but is very sensitive to the time-consistency of the monetary-fiscal policy mix.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 101716"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-31DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101712
Yutaro Izumi , Sangyoon Park
This study examines the effect of colonial education on the mobilization of Koreans during World War II. Considering an educational expansion policy that doubled the number of public primary schools in Korea, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits cross-regional variations in the expansion of primary schools and cross-cohort variations in exposure to school expansion. We show that the expansion of public primary education significantly increased the military mobilization of Koreans. Exploiting the design of the expansion policy, we use an instrumental variable approach and show that the results remain qualitatively unchanged. We discuss several potential mechanisms underlying our findings.
{"title":"Education and wartime mobilization: Evidence from colonial Korea during WWII","authors":"Yutaro Izumi , Sangyoon Park","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101712","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101712","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the effect of colonial education on the mobilization of Koreans during World War II. Considering an educational expansion policy that doubled the number of public primary schools in Korea, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits cross-regional variations in the expansion of primary schools and cross-cohort variations in exposure to school expansion. We show that the expansion of public primary education significantly increased the military mobilization of Koreans. Exploiting the design of the expansion policy, we use an instrumental variable approach and show that the results remain qualitatively unchanged. We discuss several potential mechanisms underlying our findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 101712"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144779364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101702
Jonathan Jayes, Jakob Molinder, Kerstin Enflo
How does new technology impact labor market outcomes? We address this question by examining the adoption of electricity in Sweden during the early 20th century. Leveraging detailed individual-level data that covers the entire labor market and exogenous variation in electricity access driven by proximity to hydro-power plants, we estimate the impact of electrification on individual labor market outcomes. Our findings show significantly higher earnings in electricity-adopting parishes compared to control areas. The income gains were particularly pronounced among lower-income workers and those with primary education only, resulting in reduced income inequality. These effects held across labor markets with both strong and weak union presence, suggesting that electricity functioned as a labor-supporting technology. Our results highlight how specific technologies can shape individual outcomes and income distributions.
{"title":"Power for progress: The impact of electricity on individual labor market outcomes","authors":"Jonathan Jayes, Jakob Molinder, Kerstin Enflo","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101702","url":null,"abstract":"How does new technology impact labor market outcomes? We address this question by examining the adoption of electricity in Sweden during the early 20th century. Leveraging detailed individual-level data that covers the entire labor market and exogenous variation in electricity access driven by proximity to hydro-power plants, we estimate the impact of electrification on individual labor market outcomes. Our findings show significantly higher earnings in electricity-adopting parishes compared to control areas. The income gains were particularly pronounced among lower-income workers and those with primary education only, resulting in reduced income inequality. These effects held across labor markets with both strong and weak union presence, suggesting that electricity functioned as a labor-supporting technology. Our results highlight how specific technologies can shape individual outcomes and income distributions.","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"24 1","pages":"101702"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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