Explorations in Economic History最新文献

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Land Inequality and Demographic Outcomes: The Relationship between Access to Land and the Demographic System in 19th-century Rural Tuscany 土地不平等与人口结果：19世纪托斯卡纳乡村土地获取与人口制度的关系

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101668

M. Manfredini , A. Fornasin , M. Breschi

In pre-industrial rural Italy, the disparities among smallholders, sharecroppers, and day laborers were starkly defined by their unequal access to land, which significantly influenced their living standards, family structures, and socioeconomic conditions. This paper uses nominative data from 1819 to 1859 to first explore how the different peasant categories adjusted their demographic behaviors according to their tie to the land, and then how they were possibly modified when short-term stressors, such as price increase and/or epidemics, altered the existing equilibrium.

The results reveal that the groups with access to land where less vulnerable and less susceptible to economic crises compared to day laborers, who relied entirely on the market for essential food supplies. During periods of high prices, day laborers experienced a rapid decline in their economic situation, leading to increased mortality, migration, and postponement of marriages. However, access to land was also associated with a demographic pattern aimed at both controlling household consumption and maximizing the male labor force. This included strict control over marriages, increased fertility, and selective mobility, all of which could intensify during crises and periods of rising prices.

These findings underscore the inadequacy of the simplistic classification of landed versus landless groups, emphasizing the necessity for a more sophisticated understanding of households based on their relationship and connections with the land.

在工业化前的意大利农村，小农、佃农和日工之间的差异明显体现在他们获得土地的不平等上，这极大地影响了他们的生活水平、家庭结构和社会经济条件。本文使用1819年至1859年的名义数据，首先探讨了不同农民类别如何根据他们与土地的联系调整他们的人口行为，然后在短期压力因素（如价格上涨和/或流行病）改变现有均衡时，他们如何可能被修改。结果显示，与完全依赖市场获得基本食物供应的日工相比，拥有土地的群体不那么脆弱，也不容易受到经济危机的影响。在高物价时期，日工的经济状况迅速下降，导致死亡率上升、移民和婚姻推迟。然而，获得土地也与旨在控制家庭消费和使男性劳动力最大化的人口结构有关。这包括严格控制婚姻、提高生育率和选择性流动，所有这些都可能在危机和物价上涨时期加剧。这些调查结果强调了对有地群体和无地群体进行简单分类的不足之处，强调有必要根据家庭与土地的关系和联系对家庭进行更复杂的了解。

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引用次数: 0

Economic stress and migration in early modern Japan: Rural-urban comparative evidence from population registers 近代早期日本的经济压力与移民：来自人口登记的城乡比较证据

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101667

Satomi KUROSU , Hao DONG

This study investigates the effects of economic stress on out-migration behaviors using individual-level panel data transcribed from local population registers of three villages and a neighboring town in northeastern Japan in 1708–1870. Economic stress under study includes local economic hardship, measured by rice price fluctuations, and large-scale famines. We apply multinomial logistic models to examine competing risks of migration for various reasons and to compare rural and non-rural populations. The likelihood of service-related migration declined while that of illegal absconding increased during times of economic hardship. Rural residents were more vulnerable to famines, whereas urban residents were more affected by rice price fluctuations. Moreover, systematic socioeconomic heterogeneities existed in the migration responses to economic stress between the landowner/tax-payer and landless/non-tax-payer classes. Overall, this study dissects the complex dynamics of migration responses to economic stress, revealing significant variations based on migration reasons, socioeconomic status, and rural-urban contexts.

本研究利用日本东北部三个村庄和邻近城镇1708-1870年当地人口登记簿上的个人水平面板数据，考察了经济压力对外迁行为的影响。所研究的经济压力包括以大米价格波动衡量的地方经济困难和大规模饥荒。我们应用多项逻辑模型来检查各种原因导致的迁移竞争风险，并比较农村和非农村人口。在经济困难时期，服务相关移民的可能性下降，而非法潜逃的可能性增加。农村居民更容易受到饥荒的影响，而城市居民则更容易受到米价波动的影响。此外，在移民对经济压力的反应中，土地所有者/纳税人与无地者/非纳税人之间存在系统性的社会经济异质性。总体而言，本研究剖析了移民对经济压力反应的复杂动态，揭示了基于移民原因、社会经济地位和城乡背景的显著变化。

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引用次数: 0

Examining the role of training data for supervised methods of automated record linkage: Lessons for best practice in economic history 考察训练数据在自动记录链接的监督方法中的作用：经济史上最佳实践的教训

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101656

James J Feigenbaum , Jonas Helgertz , Joseph Price

During the past decade, scholars have produced a vast amount of research using linked historical individual-level data, shaping and changing our understanding of the past. This linked data revolution has been powered by methodological and computational advances, partly focused on supervised machine-learning methods that rely on training data. The importance of obtaining high-quality training data for the performance of the record linkage algorithm largely, however, remains unknown. This paper comprehensively examines the role of training data, and—by extension—improves our understanding of best practices in supervised methods of probabilistic record linkage. First, we compare the speed and costs of building training data using different methods. Second, we document high rates of conditional accuracy across the training data sets, rates that are especially high when built with access to more information. Third, we show that data constructed by record linking algorithms learning from different training-data-generation methods do not substantially differ in their accuracy, either overall or across demographic groups, though algorithms tend to perform best when their feature space aligns with the features used to build the training data. Lastly, we introduce errors in the training data and find that the examined record linking algorithms are remarkably capable of making accurate links even working with flawed training data.

在过去的十年里，学者们利用相关的历史个人层面的数据进行了大量的研究，塑造和改变了我们对过去的理解。这种关联数据革命是由方法和计算的进步推动的，部分集中在依赖于训练数据的监督机器学习方法上。然而，获取高质量的训练数据对于记录链接算法性能的重要性在很大程度上仍然未知。本文全面考察了训练数据的作用，并通过扩展，提高了我们对概率记录链接的监督方法的最佳实践的理解。首先，我们比较了使用不同方法构建训练数据的速度和成本。其次，我们在训练数据集中记录了很高的条件准确性，当可以访问更多信息时，这一比率尤其高。第三，我们表明，通过从不同的训练数据生成方法学习的记录链接算法构建的数据在总体或跨人口统计组的准确性上没有本质差异，尽管当算法的特征空间与用于构建训练数据的特征一致时，算法往往表现最好。最后，我们引入了训练数据中的错误，并发现所检查的记录链接算法即使在有缺陷的训练数据下也能非常准确地建立链接。

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引用次数: 0

Balancing economic stress: The role of rural–urban migration in nineteenth-century East Belgium 平衡经济压力：19世纪东比利时城乡移民的作用

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101666

George C. Alter , Michel Oris

In this paper we propose an integrated view of both the rural and the urban sides of migration in 19th century East Belgium. We study two rural areas, Ardennes and the Pays de Herve, with diverging agrarian structures and pathways to modernization. Both areas faced the challenge of population pressure due to high fertility and falling mortality. Between them was a textile town, Verviers, which was one of the cradles of industrial revolution in continental Europe. Young people in rural areas engaged in circular migrations with the goal of marrying and establishing new households, which became increasingly difficult in communities with growing populations and diminishing opportunities. Moving from farm to farm also increased as the ownership of farmland became more concentrated and unequal. Those who did not succeed in the countryside moved to Verviers and rarely returned to their rural roots. Instead, they entered a different migratory system within the urban-industrial agglomeration. When urban economic conditions were bad, migrants from Ardennes and the Pays de Herve did not leave Verviers for other industrial areas. They preferred to remain close to kin living in the villages. Overall, migration flows responded weakly to short-term fluctuations in prices and industrial activity, but rural-urban migrations relieved growing economic stress in the countryside.

在本文中，我们提出了19世纪东比利时农村和城市移民的综合观点。我们研究了两个农村地区，阿登地区和埃尔韦地区，这两个地区的农业结构和现代化道路不同。由于高生育率和死亡率下降，这两个地区都面临人口压力的挑战。它们之间是一个纺织小镇，维维耶，这是欧洲大陆工业革命的摇篮之一。农村地区的年轻人以结婚和建立新家庭为目标进行循环迁移，这在人口不断增长和机会日益减少的社区变得越来越困难。随着农田所有权变得更加集中和不平等，从一个农场到另一个农场的流动也在增加。那些在农村不成功的人搬到了维维耶，很少回到他们的农村根源。相反，他们进入了一个不同的城市-工业集聚的迁移系统。当城市经济条件不好时，来自阿登和埃尔韦地区的移民并没有离开维维耶去其他工业区。他们更喜欢和住在村子里的亲戚保持亲密关系。总体而言，移徙流动对价格和工业活动的短期波动反应较弱，但从农村到城市的移徙缓解了农村日益增长的经济压力。

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引用次数: 0

Gains from factory electrification: Evidence from North Carolina, 1905–1926 工厂电气化的收益：来自北卡罗来纳州的证据，1905-1926

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101654

Will Damron

Between 1900 and 1930, the share of power in American manufacturing coming from electricity grew from 10% to 80%. Although electrification has been attributed with dramatic productivity gains, data limitations have constrained previous research to rely on aggregate data. Using a newly-collected dataset covering manufacturers in North Carolina in the early 1900s, I examine the effects of electrification at the establishment level. Manufacturers who electrified increased their productivity and output relative to manufacturers who did not. The effects on workers were mixed. While electrification increased average wages, it also increased the return to skill and reduced the labor share. Delays in electricity adoption point to the importance of complementary innovations in electricity transmission and financial markets.

1900年至1930年间，美国制造业中来自电力的电力份额从10%增长到80%。尽管电气化带来了巨大的生产力提高，但数据的限制限制了之前的研究依赖于汇总数据。使用新收集的数据集，涵盖了20世纪初北卡罗来纳州的制造商，我研究了电气化在企业层面的影响。与没有电气化的制造商相比，电气化的制造商提高了生产率和产量。对工人的影响是复杂的。虽然电气化提高了平均工资，但它也提高了技能回报，降低了劳动收入占比。电力采用的延迟表明了电力传输和金融市场互补创新的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Union wage effects in Sweden: Evidence from the interwar period 工会工资对瑞典的影响：两次世界大战期间的证据

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101655

William Skoglund

In this paper, I use a new plant-level dataset to investigate the relationship between wages and the regional strength of unions. Using a shift-share or ’Bartik’ instrumental variables approach, I disentangle the causal effect of union strength on wage levels. I find statistically significant and economically substantial, heterogeneous union wage effects for men with the bottom of the distribution of plants being impacted by union density and the top two-thirds being unaffected. I find a statistically weaker negative effect on wages for women and argue that unions, in general, were uninterested in the issues of women. The paper contributes to the literature by providing the only evidence of a union wage effect in Sweden and, the earliest identified union wage effect anywhere—highlighting the importance of unions in shaping labor market outcomes in the early 20th century and showing that union wage effects are products of their historical and institutional context.

在本文中，我使用了一个新的工厂层面的数据集来研究工资与工会的地区实力之间的关系。使用轮班份额或“Bartik”工具变量方法，我理清了工会力量对工资水平的因果影响。我发现统计上显著的，经济上可观的，不同的工会工资对男性的影响，工厂分布的底部受到工会密度的影响，而前三分之二的人不受影响。我发现从统计数据来看，对女性工资的负面影响较弱，并认为工会总体上对女性问题不感兴趣。本文通过提供瑞典工会工资效应的唯一证据，以及世界上最早确定的工会工资效应，为文献做出了贡献，强调了20世纪初工会在塑造劳动力市场结果方面的重要性，并表明工会工资效应是其历史和制度背景的产物。

引用次数: 0

The fertility response to price changes in a manorial society: The case of rural Estonia, 1834–1884 庄园社会中生育率对价格变化的反应：以爱沙尼亚农村为例，1834-1884

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101653

Martin Klesment, Kersti Lust

In the pre-industrial era, changing economic conditions had a strong influence on demographic processes. Using pre-industrial rural Estonia as an example, the article studies fertility response to short-term economic stress in a manorial society in eastern Europe. It considers whether the fertility response to rye price fluctuations was deliberate and whether it was socially differentiated. It appears that an increase in the price of rye resulted in the drop of conceptions within the next year and the magnitude of the impact on fertility was roughly similar to that in several other European settings in the 19th century. As long as the manorial system was maintained, farmers were more sensitive to price hikes than the landless, but with the decline of the mutual economic dependence between manors and farms, the landless laborers became more vulnerable to price increases. Our analysis of the timing of the fertility response reveals no deliberate postponement of conceptions immediately before or after the low harvests or price increases. Instead, conceptions dropped only in the spring and summer season of the next year, indicating a non-deliberate and spontaneous response.

在前工业化时代，不断变化的经济条件对人口进程产生了强烈的影响。本文以工业化前的爱沙尼亚农村为例，研究了东欧庄园社会中生育率对短期经济压力的反应。它考虑了生育对黑麦价格波动的反应是否是有意的，以及这种反应是否存在社会差异。看来，黑麦价格的上涨导致了第二年受孕率的下降，其对生育率的影响程度与19世纪其他几个欧洲国家的情况大致相似。在庄园制度存在的情况下，农民比无地劳动者对价格上涨更为敏感，但随着庄园与农场之间相互经济依赖性的下降，无地劳动者对价格上涨的抵抗力也随之下降。我们对生育反应时间的分析表明，在低收成或价格上涨之前或之后，没有人故意推迟受孕。相反，只有在第二年的春季和夏季，怀孕率才下降，这表明这是一种无意识的、自发的反应。

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引用次数: 0

The evolution of the value of water power during the Industrial Revolution 工业革命期间水力价值的演变

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101645

Todd Guilfoos

This work measures the historical evolution of the value of water power during the Industrial Revolution in the United States. I use the variation in county level agricultural land prices and the natural endowment of water power to identify the value of water power. This value is decomposed into direct values (power as a prime mover) and indirect values (attracting infrastructure) from 1850 to 1920; prior to 1900 approximately 85%–90% of the total value is derived from the direct effect of water power. Significant devaluation of water-power endowments occur after 1900, with a significant decline in value by 1920.

这项工作衡量了美国工业革命期间水力价值的历史演变。本文利用县域农用地价格的变化和水电的自然禀赋来确定水电的价值。从1850年到1920年，该价值被分解为直接价值（电力作为原动力）和间接价值（吸引基础设施）；1900年以前，大约85%-90%的总价值来自水力发电的直接影响。水电禀赋在1900年以后出现显著贬值，到1920年价值显著下降。

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Poverty in Germany from the Black Death until the Beginning of Industrialization 从黑死病到工业化开始德国的贫困

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101630

Guido Alfani , Victoria Gierok , Felix Schaff

This paper provides macro-level estimates of the prevalence of poverty in preindustrial Germany, from the Black Death to the onset of industrialization in the nineteenth century. Based on a new body of evidence we show that poverty declined after two large-scale catastrophes: the Black Death in the fourteenth century and the Thirty Years’ War in the seventeenth. Poverty increased substantially in the sixteenth century, and stagnated in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. This pattern is broadly in line with a Malthusian model of the preindustrial economy, but also with several other explanations of poverty. Circa 1600, poverty and inequality extraction were at a historical peak – right when social conflict erupted in Germany.

本文从宏观层面估算了工业化前德国从黑死病到 19 世纪工业化开始期间的贫困发生率。基于大量新的证据，我们发现贫困率在两次大规模灾难之后有所下降：14 世纪的黑死病和 17 世纪的三十年战争。贫困在 16 世纪大幅增加，在 18 世纪和 19 世纪早期停滞不前。这一模式大致符合马尔萨斯的前工业经济模式，同时也符合其他几种对贫困的解释。1600 年左右，贫困和不平等现象达到了历史顶峰--此时德国爆发了社会冲突。

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Protestantism and human capital: Evidence from early 20th century Ireland 新教与人力资本：来自20世纪初爱尔兰的证据

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101647

Alan Fernihough , Stuart Henderson

Using a large individual-level dataset, we explore the significance of religious affiliation for human capital variation in Ireland at the turn of the twentieth century. We construct a large sample based on the returns of male household heads in the 1901 census and explore variation in literacy across the three principal denominations: Roman Catholicism, Anglicanism and Presbyterianism. Protestantism, particularly Presbyterianism, is associated with higher levels of human capital. This denominational effect is remarkably robust, even when accounting for various control variables and alternative modelling specifications. Supplementary analyses reveal that these literacy disparities existed before the foundation of centralised national schooling in 1831 and were independent of school attendance, as Presbyterians exhibited lower attendance rates than Anglicans. We suggest that denomination mattered because it affected the incentives to accrue literacy ability to fully participate in religious and wider cultural life.

利用大型个人层面的数据集，我们探讨了宗教信仰对二十世纪之交爱尔兰人力资本变化的意义。我们根据1901年人口普查中男性户主的回报构建了一个大样本，并探讨了三个主要教派（罗马天主教、英国国教和长老会）的识字率差异。新教，尤其是长老会，与较高水平的人力资本有关。即使考虑到各种控制变量和可选的建模规范，这种命名效应也非常稳健。补充分析显示，这些文化差异在1831年中央国家学校建立之前就存在了，并且与学校出勤率无关，因为长老会教徒的出勤率低于英国国教教徒。我们认为，教派很重要，因为它影响了人们积累识字能力的动机，从而充分参与宗教和更广泛的文化生活。

引用次数: 0

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