Explorations in Economic History最新文献

Using surnames from the universe of death and wealth-at-death records in England and Wales, from 1858 to 2018, I document the emergence of a modern ethnic wealth gradient. Historically, Non-British ethnicities have average wealth 2–5 times that of the English. However, this premium has decreased over the 20th century. By 1980, non-British ethnicities have no advantage over the British. However, this masks considerable heterogeneity within the non-British ethnicity group. Europeans typically die significantly richer than the English whereas the Pakistani and Swedish die significantly poorer. Some groups always have lower wealth. The Irish, have wealth around 50% of the average English throughout. Surprisingly, the most egalitarian measure of wealth is representation within the top 1%. Most ethnicities have an equal, or greater, representation in the top 1% than the English, 1980–1992. Despite large differences in average wealth between ethnicities, the vast majority of variation, 97.5% is between individuals.

This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their wealth. Relying on event history models that look simultaneously at stopping and spacing, we do not find strong evidence in support of fertility control in response to general price volatility. We do find greater variance in birth interval lengths for former slaveholding households during and immediately after emancipation, suggesting that a negative wealth shock is associated with increased fertility limitation through postponement in this context.

This article studies the short- and long-run economic consequences of the now-extinct Shanghai tramway. Tramway was the primary mode of transportation in Shanghai between 1908 and the 1930s, continuing to operate until 1975. With the geolocation of the tramway lines on both historical cadastral maps and current Google maps, the article finds that after the arrival of the tramway, land lots close to the tramway lines experienced a larger increase in land value relative to those far away from the tramway lines, and that the reduction in transportation costs led to a flattening land value gradient with respect to distance from the central business district (CBD). It also finds that the tramway still influences the current pattern of urban land value, even nearly fifty years after the removal of the last tramway track. Such persistent influence can be largely explained by the follow-on amenities near the tramway lines. The evidence found in this article suggests that the tramway in Shanghai promoted decentralization by enhancing accessibility to the CBD from distant locations in its heyday, and influences modern behaviors through the mutually reinforced private and public coordination of economic activities.

This paper studies the effects of various types of land reform on the voting of the rural poor in a developing, largely agrarian economy such as 1930s Spain. Using municipal-level electoral results in a region with intense but heterogeneous land-related interventions, we find that permanent transfers of land had the greatest positive impact on voting for leftist candidates, followed by temporary transfers of land aimed at alleviating the problem of seasonal unemployment. Poorly planned temporary transfers of land without adequate funding for beneficiaries made the landless more vulnerable to landowner control and had the opposite result. Our results show that the secret ballot might be insufficient to guarantee the free vote of economically dependent landless laborers. They also show that land reforms with poor support for beneficiaries might backfire.

During the Progressive Era (1900–29), economic growth was rapid but volatile. Boom and busts witnessed the formation and failure of tens of thousands of firms and thousands of banks. This essay uses new data and methods to identify causal links between failures of banks and bankruptcies of firms. Our analysis indicates that bank failures triggered bankruptcies of firms that depended upon banks for ongoing access to commercial credit. Firms that did not depend upon banks for credit did not fail in appreciably larger numbers after banks failed.

The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 marked a pivotal moment in U.S. immigration policy, effectively prohibiting Chinese immigration while institutionalizing discrimination against Asians within American society. This study investigates the repercussions of such institutional discrimination on the assimilation process of Asian immigrants, leveraging the timing of the enactment of the Act and the regional variation in the intensity of discrimination. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that discrimination posed significant obstacles to the labor market integration of Asian immigrants during the Exclusion Era (1882–1943), and Asian immigrants responded to discriminatory practices by investing in human capital, enhancing English proficiency, and adopting Americanized names. Furthermore, the triple-difference estimates reveal that these effects are more pronounced in regions characterized by heightened discrimination against Asians.

Who could afford books in the late early-modern period? We explore how prices related to the demand for books in eighteenth-century Britain by analysing extensive bibliographic and socio-economic data based on Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Our results quantify in financial terms the difficulty of buying print products faced by most British households in the eighteenth century, and how this related to the varying levels of supply across price segments. We found no evidence of the well known claim that legislation would have led to lower prices. The inadequate supply and high cost of books make it likely that only higher-income households bought them regularly from the primary market.

This article aims to answer a provocative question: would higher prices, particularly that of milk, be beneficial for the survival of children under 2 years old? Using a database of more than 230,000 births, matched to deaths, we test this hypothesis in the context of a large Mediterranean city, Madrid, in the years 1915–1926. During this period an inflationary crisis spread from 1917 to 1921. We compare child survival, the impact of milk price fluctuations, and the summer mortality peak, controlling for socio-spatial segregation and considering all-cause mortality and mortality due to food- and water-borne illnesses, before, during and after the economic depression. A positive association between increases in the milk price and better chances of survival is statistically robust, but only observed during depression. Several explanations are discussed.

The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions, and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement, and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies between 1300 and 2000. For the sample as a whole, the modern business cycle emerged in the nineteenth century.

This article provides novel estimates of long-term income inequality in Bulgaria and Czech Lands/Czechoslovakia in the twentieth century. Relying on newly-constructed datasets and the social tables approach, we measure inequality between salient social strata. We find that Czechoslovakia was significantly more unequal than Bulgaria before 1945. Inequality converged to similarly low levels under socialism. Decomposition analysis by social classes reveals that different levels of inequality in the first half of the century were principally driven by higher within social-class inequality in Czechoslovakia, owing to a more stratified industrial society; whereas a low dispersion within the dominant agricultural sector held down the within social-class component in Bulgaria. A dramatic fall in total inequality after 1945 was a result of the social revolution that encompassed the virtual disappearance of between social-class inequality and a marked reduction in within social-class inequality. Our findings point to the critical role of institutional and political factors in driving inequality in Eastern Europe throughout the twentieth century.