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War bonds and household saving in WWII 二战中的战争债券和家庭储蓄
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101692
Gillian Brunet , Eric Hilt , Matthew Jaremski
Household saving increased dramatically during World War II, reaching more than 19 percent of GDP. We study the effects of the war bond program implemented by the U.S. government on the level of household saving during the war. The bonds were heavily promoted in a series of drives, which encouraged thrift and associated subscriptions with patriotism, and also through a payroll deduction program. Yet as Friedman and Schwartz have noted, the main effect of the program may have been to change the form in which savings were held, rather than to increase saving. We use county-level data and an instrument for participation in the bond program to estimate the effect of war bond sales on total saving. We find that for every $100 in war bond sales, bank deposit inflows fell by $70, suggesting that while there was substantial substitution between war bonds and bank accounts, the program did actually increase total saving. A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the bond program increased total personal saving by about 7 percent, in large part driven by the voluntary payroll deduction program.
第二次世界大战期间,家庭储蓄急剧增加,达到GDP的19%以上。本文研究了美国政府在战争期间实施的战争债券计划对家庭储蓄水平的影响。这些债券在一系列活动中得到大力推广,这些活动鼓励节俭,并将认购债券与爱国主义联系起来,同时还通过一项工资扣除计划。然而,正如弗里德曼和施瓦茨所指出的那样,该计划的主要效果可能是改变了储蓄的形式,而不是增加了储蓄。我们使用县级数据和参与债券计划的工具来估计战争债券销售对总储蓄的影响。我们发现,战争债券每卖出100美元,银行存款流入就会减少70美元,这表明虽然战争债券和银行账户之间存在大量替代,但该计划实际上确实增加了总储蓄。一个粗略的计算表明,债券计划使个人储蓄总额增加了约7%,这在很大程度上是由自愿工资扣除计划推动的。
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引用次数: 0
Local energy access and industry specialization: Evidence from World War II emergency pipelines 地方能源获取和行业专业化:来自二战应急管道的证据
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101688
Jacob Greenspon , Gordon Hanson
How does improving access to the supply of energy affect regional specialization in manufacturing? We evaluate the long-run employment impacts of pipelines constructed by the U.S. government during World War II to transport oil and gas from the oil fields of the Southwest to wartime industrial producers in the Northeast. The pipelines were built rapidly to connect end points along a direct path that minimized use of scarce construction materials. Postwar they were converted to supply en route customers, giving counties close to the pipelines access to a cheap and plentiful source of energy. Between 1940 and 1950, counties with better access to pipeline gas had larger increases in their share of employment in energy-intensive industries. These impacts persisted to the mid-1980s for all energy-intensive industries and to the late 1990s for the subset of industries intensive in the direct use of electricity, despite the disruptive effects of the 1970s energy crisis. Our findings are relevant for understanding energy-related path dependence in local economic development patterns and how government intervention in energy markets affects industry location in the short and long run.
能源供应的改善如何影响制造业的区域专业化?我们评估了美国政府在第二次世界大战期间建造的管道对就业的长期影响,这些管道将石油和天然气从西南部的油田输送到东北部的战时工业生产者。管道的建造速度很快,沿着一条直接的路径连接端点,最大限度地减少了稀缺建筑材料的使用。战后,它们被转换为供应途中客户,使靠近管道的国家获得廉价而丰富的能源。在1940年至1950年间,管道天然气供应较好的县,其能源密集型产业的就业份额增长幅度较大。这些影响对所有能源密集型工业一直持续到1980年代中期,对直接使用电力的工业子集一直持续到1990年代后期,尽管1970年代能源危机造成了破坏性影响。我们的研究结果有助于理解地方经济发展模式中与能源相关的路径依赖,以及政府对能源市场的干预在短期和长期内如何影响产业区位。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of World War II spending and army service on the lifespan of the Black population 二战开支和军队服役对黑人寿命的影响
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101693
Adriana Lleras-Muney , Tommy Morgan , Joseph Price , William Wygal
We investigate how World War II affected the longevity of the Black population. We focus attention on two aspects of the war. First, during the war a very large number of men served in the military. Second, many companies received large Federal contracts to support the war effort and employed a large number of workers in the production of war-related goods and services. Previous work has found that these events appear to have improved the economic conditions of Black men after the war. We document that war contracts indeed increased the age at death of Black men, but not of White men, lowering racial disparities in lifespan. The results for Black women are similar but less robust. Although WWII Army veterans lived longer than civilians, our causal estimates of the effects of serving during the war are imprecise for Black men.
我们调查了第二次世界大战对黑人寿命的影响。我们把注意力集中在战争的两个方面。首先,在战争期间,有非常多的人在军队服役。其次,许多公司获得了大量的联邦合同来支持战争,并雇佣了大量的工人来生产与战争有关的商品和服务。先前的研究发现,这些事件似乎改善了战后黑人的经济状况。我们证明,战争契约确实增加了黑人男性的死亡年龄,而不是白人男性,从而降低了寿命上的种族差异。黑人女性的结果与此相似,但没有那么明显。虽然二战退伍军人的寿命比平民更长,但我们对战争期间服役对黑人的影响的因果估计并不精确。
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引用次数: 0
Durable consumption, bank distress, economic concerns, and how they interacted during the great depression 持久消费,银行困境,经济问题,以及它们在大萧条期间如何相互作用
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101698
Mark Carlson
This paper explores simultaneous developments in the banking sector and the real economy during the Great Depression and whether these are related to shifts in beliefs about economic prospects. It identifies a notable coincidence of bank closures and declines in consumer durable consumption (new automobile purchases) in Ohio in the early 1930s. To examine whether shifts in beliefs and the economic concerns of households and businesses may have mattered, I test whether keywords from local newspapers related to economic prospects or sentiments are associated with subsequent bank closures and declines in automobile purchases. The results support the idea that beliefs mattered for both of those outcomes, even after accounting for economic fundamentals. The analysis also highlights the importance of local economic conditions in shaping behavior.
本文探讨了大萧条时期银行业和实体经济的同步发展,以及这些发展是否与人们对经济前景的看法转变有关。该研究发现,20世纪30年代初,俄亥俄州的银行倒闭和消费者耐用消费品(新车购买量)下降之间存在显著的巧合。为了检验信念的转变以及家庭和企业对经济的关注是否有影响,我测试了当地报纸上与经济前景或情绪相关的关键词是否与随后的银行关闭和汽车购买量下降有关。研究结果支持了这样一种观点,即即使在考虑了经济基本面因素后,信念对这两种结果都很重要。该分析还强调了当地经济条件在塑造行为方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Kinship and opportunity: Swedish chain migration to the United States, 1880–1920 亲缘关系与机遇:1880-1920年瑞典移民到美国
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101695
Marcos Castillo, Martin Dribe, Jonas Helgertz
Between 1850 and 1930, millions of Europeans emigrated to the United States, attracted by opportunities for a better life. We study the role of migrant networks in fostering emigration, using individual-level Swedish full-count census data for men and women, linked to emigration records. Our findings show that having previously migrating siblings was an important determinant of emigration, particularly if the migrating sibling was of the same gender. The presence of migrant networks of kin outside the immediate family also promoted emigration. Moreover, migrant networks were most important for prospective migrants from areas with the weakest migration history. The importance of migrant networks for women did not vary according to social class, while for men in rural areas, the role of siblings emigrating was more important influencing emigration in the lowest social class.
1850年至1930年间,数百万欧洲人被追求更好生活的机会所吸引,移民到美国。我们研究了移民网络在促进移民方面的作用,使用了与移民记录相关的瑞典个人层面的男性和女性全计数人口普查数据。我们的研究结果表明,以前有迁移的兄弟姐妹是移民的一个重要决定因素,特别是如果迁移的兄弟姐妹是同性别的。直系亲属以外的亲属移民网络的存在也促进了移民。此外,移民网络对来自移民历史最薄弱地区的潜在移民最为重要。移徙网络对妇女的重要性并不因社会阶层而异,而对农村地区的男子来说,兄弟姐妹移徙对最低社会阶层移徙的影响更为重要。
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引用次数: 0
From status to contract? A macrohistory from early-modern English caselaw and print culture 从身份到合同?近代早期英国判例法和印刷文化的宏观历史
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101696
Peter Grajzl , Peter Murrell
Most modernization or development theories that incorporate law emphasize a growth in the scope of individual choice as law becomes impartial, relevant to all. An early expression of this conceptualization was Henry Maine's (1822–1888) celebrated dictum that progressive societies move from status to contract. We conduct an inquiry into Maine's conjecture using machine-learning applied to two early-modern English corpora, on caselaw and print culture. We train word embeddings on each corpus and produce time series of emphases on contract, status, and contract versus status. Only caselaw exhibits an increasing emphasis on contract versus status, and even that trend is discernible only before the Civil War. Thus, our findings indicate that development theories emphasizing the widening of individual choice do not characterize England in the century prior to the Industrial Revolution. After 1660, caselaw trends reflect the increasing importance of equity compared to common-law, with equity increasingly emphasizing status. This effect is particularly evident in family and inheritance law. In print culture, religion consistently emphasizes contract over status while politics exhibits a downward-trending emphasis on contract versus status. VAR estimates reveal that ideas in caselaw and print culture coevolved.
大多数包含法律的现代化或发展理论都强调,随着法律变得公正,与所有人相关,个人选择的范围也会扩大。这种概念的早期表达是亨利·缅因(1822-1888)著名的格言,即进步社会从地位走向契约。我们将机器学习应用于两个早期现代英语语料库,分别是判例法和印刷文化,对缅因的猜想进行了调查。我们在每个语料库上训练词嵌入,并生成强调契约、状态和契约与状态的时间序列。只有判例法表现出对契约与地位的日益强调,即使是这种趋势也只是在南北战争之前才可以看出。因此,我们的研究结果表明,强调个人选择扩大的发展理论并不是工业革命前一个世纪英国的特征。1660年以后,判例法的发展趋势反映出衡平法相对普通法的重要性日益增加,衡平法越来越强调地位。这种影响在家庭和继承法中尤为明显。在印刷文化中,宗教一贯强调契约而不是地位,而政治则呈现出强调契约而不是地位的下降趋势。VAR估计表明,判例法和印刷文化中的思想是共同进化的。
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引用次数: 0
Did war mobilization cause aggregate and regional growth? 战争动员是否引起了总体和地区的增长?
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101685
Taylor Jaworski , Dongkyu Yang
The participation of the United States in World War II led to a substantial mobilization of domestic resources to produce the materiel used on the battlefields of Europe and in the Pacific. We produce new estimates for the impact of war mobilization on long-run economic growth and regional development in the United States over the postwar period. Guided by an economic geography model, we interpret our estimates as the direct effect of mobilization on local productivity. The findings suggest the largest likely aggregate welfare impact was modest, although there is variation across region. In addition, industrial mobilization contributed to manufacturing growth relatively more in the Northeast and Midwest, and less in the South and West.
美国参加第二次世界大战导致国内资源的大量调动,以生产在欧洲战场和太平洋战场上使用的物资。我们对战后时期战争动员对美国长期经济增长和地区发展的影响进行了新的估计。在经济地理模型的指导下,我们将我们的估计解释为动员对当地生产力的直接影响。研究结果表明,尽管地区之间存在差异,但最大可能的总福利影响是适度的。此外,工业动员对东北和中西部制造业增长的贡献相对较大,而对南部和西部制造业增长的贡献较小。
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引用次数: 0
The economics of Greco-Roman slavery 希腊罗马奴隶制的经济学
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101689
Rafael R. Guthmann , Walter Scheidel
This paper investigates the economic aspects of slavery in the ancient Greco-Roman world. Existing evidence reveals significant variation in the relative cost of slaves compared to unskilled wages: it appears that at different times and places, a typical slave could be purchased for prices equivalent to wages paid from 150 to 1000 days of unskilled labor. To explain this great disparity, we develop a principal–agent model that predicts the return on slaves relative to wages, which varies as a function of the prevalence of slavery in the labor force. This model implies that slavery may have increased aggregate labor productivity by reallocating workers from less productive to more productive regions within the Greco-Roman world.
本文研究了古希腊罗马世界奴隶制的经济方面。现有证据表明,与非熟练工人的工资相比,奴隶的相对成本存在显著差异:似乎在不同的时间和地点,一个典型的奴隶可以以相当于150至1000天非熟练工人工资的价格购买。为了解释这种巨大的差异,我们开发了一个委托代理模型来预测奴隶相对于工资的回报,该模型随劳动力中奴隶制的普遍程度而变化。该模型暗示,在希腊罗马世界,奴隶制可能通过将工人从生产率较低的地区重新分配到生产率较高的地区,从而提高了总劳动生产率。
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引用次数: 0
Ascending from the bottom rung: The labor market assimilation of rural-urban migrants in Sweden, 1880–1910 从最底层上升:1880-1910年瑞典城乡移民的劳动力市场同化
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101690
Jonatan Andersson
This article examines the assimilation of rural-born people into the urban economy in the industrialization context, focusing on Sweden from 1880 to 1910—a time characterized by a notable shift in economic activity towards urban areas. I utilize individual-level data on three cohorts of rural-urban migrants linked across census records, allowing for an examination of their labor market assimilation across all Swedish towns. The main findings suggest that the labor market assimilation of male migrants followed a Chiswick-like process, regardless of the size of the destination area. Initially, migrants displayed a sizeable negative gap in labor market outcomes compared to urban natives, which narrowed with the time spent in the urban area. Nevertheless, they never managed to close the gap over time. By contrast, female migrants displayed few signs of converging with female natives. Migrants’ inability to close the gap was likely due to the non-transferability of skills between the rural and urban sectors. The convergence that did occur can be explained by the potential for upward mobility from the relatively low initial positions migrants entered and, to some extent, negative selection into return migration.
本文考察了工业化背景下农村出生的人对城市经济的同化,重点关注1880年至1910年的瑞典,这一时期的特点是经济活动向城市地区显著转移。我利用与人口普查记录相关联的三组城乡移民的个人数据,允许检查他们在瑞典所有城镇的劳动力市场同化情况。主要发现表明,劳动力市场对男性移民的同化遵循了一个类似奇斯威克的过程,与目的地地区的大小无关。最初,与城市本地人相比,移民在劳动力市场结果上显示出相当大的负差距,随着在城市地区的时间延长,这一差距缩小。然而,随着时间的推移,他们从未设法缩小差距。相比之下,女性移民几乎没有表现出与当地女性融合的迹象。移徙者无法缩小差距可能是由于技能在农村和城市部门之间不可转移。确实发生的趋同可以用移民从相对较低的初始位置向上流动的潜力以及在某种程度上对返回移民的负面选择来解释。
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引用次数: 0
The wheel of life? The effect of the abolition of the foundling wheel in nineteenth-century Italy 生命之轮?十九世纪意大利废除弃婴轮的影响
IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101681
Giuliana Freschi , Marco Molteni
This paper examines the effects of abolishing the foundling wheel (ruota) on reproductive decision-making in post-unitary Italy (1863–1882). The ruota was a turning wheel placed on a wall outside foundling homes across Catholic Europe, which offered a means for anonymous infant abandonment. As infant abandonment rates and foundling mortality soared in the nineteenth century, countries began dismantling these systems. Italy mirrored this trend, with provinces abolishing the ruota at different times. We investigate the specific impacts of the ruota abolition on infant abandonment, infant mortality, births, and gender discrimination. To do so, we use a novel longitudinal dataset of Italian provinces and a staggered Difference-in-Difference empirical design. Our findings show a 54.9% decrease in abandonment, a 10.4% decline in infant deaths, and a 4% drop in births after the abolishment of the ruota. This suggests a significant shift in reproductive behavior and family planning in response to policy change.
本文考察了废除弃婴轮(ruota)对统一后意大利(1863-1882)生殖决策的影响。ruota是一个放在育婴堂外墙上的转轮,它为匿名遗弃婴儿提供了一种手段。随着19世纪婴儿遗弃率和弃婴死亡率的飙升,各国开始废除这些制度。意大利也反映了这一趋势,各省在不同时期废除了ruota。我们研究了取消ruota对婴儿遗弃、婴儿死亡率、出生率和性别歧视的具体影响。为了做到这一点,我们使用了意大利各省的一个新的纵向数据集和一个交错的差中差经验设计。我们的调查结果显示,在废除法律后,遗弃率下降了54.9%,婴儿死亡率下降了10.4%,出生率下降了4%。这表明生育行为和计划生育因政策变化而发生了重大转变。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Explorations in Economic History
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