Explorations in Economic History最新文献

The demographic and epidemiological transitions of the past 200 years are well documented at an aggregate level. Understanding differences in individual and group risks for mortality during these transitions requires linkage between demographic data and detailed individual cause of death information. This paper describes the digitization of almost 185,000 causes of death for Ohio to supplement demographic information in the Longitudinal, Intergenerational Family Electronic Micro-database (LIFE-M). To extract causes of death, our methodology combines handwriting recognition, extensive data cleaning algorithms, and the semi-automated classification of causes of death into International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes. Our procedures are adaptable to other collections of handwritten data, which require both handwriting recognition and semi-automated coding of the information extracted.

This paper discusses how to successfully digitize large-scale historical micro-data by augmenting optical character recognition (OCR) engines with pre- and post-processing methods. Although OCR software has improved dramatically in recent years due to improvements in machine learning, off-the-shelf OCR applications still present high error rates which limit their applications for accurate extraction of structured information. Complementing OCR with additional methods can however dramatically increase its success rate, making it a powerful and cost-efficient tool for economic historians. This paper showcases these methods and explains why they are useful. We apply them against two large balance sheet datasets and introduce quipucamayoc, a Python package containing these methods in a unified framework.

We develop a methodology for converting card index archival records into usable data frames for statistical and textual analyses. Leveraging machine learning and natural-language processing tools from Amazon Web Services (AWS), we overcome hurdles associated with character recognition, inconsistent data reporting, column misalignment, and irregular naming. In this article, we detail the step-by-step conversion process and discuss remedies for common problems and edge cases, using historical records from the Reconstruction Finance Corporation.

How have health and social mortality risks changed over time? Evidence from pre-1945 cohorts is sparse, mostly from the United States, and evidence is mixed on long-term changes in the risk of being overweight. We develop a dataset of men entering the NZ army in the two world wars, with objectively measured height and weight, and socioeconomic status in early adulthood. Our sample includes significant numbers of indigenous Māori, providing estimates of weight and mortality risk in an indigenous population. We follow men from war's end until death, with data on more than 12,000 men from each war. Overweight and obesity were important risk factors for mortality, and associated with shorter life expectancy. However, the reduction in life expectancy associated with being overweight declined from 5 to 3 years between the two cohorts, consistent with the hypothesis that being overweight became less risky during the twentieth century

This paper contributes to the debate on Europe's modern economic growth using the statistical concept of long-range dependence. Different regimes, defined as periods between two successive endogenously estimated structural shocks, matched episodes of pandemics and war. The most persistent shocks occurred at the time of the Black Death and the twentieth century's world wars. Our findings confirm that the Black Death often resulted in higher income levels but reject the view of a uniform long-term response to the Plague. In fact, we find a negative impact on incomes in non-Malthusian economies. In the North Sea Area (Britain and the Netherlands), the Plague was followed by positive trend growth in output per capita and population, heralding the onset of modern economic growth and the Great Divergence in Eurasia.

The dramatic decrease in international trade costs in the second half of the nineteenth century led to a global trade boom. In this paper, we examine the consequences of greater openness to international trade for regional economic activity in a small, open economy during the first era of globalization. Specifically, we provide a quantitative assessment of the role that exposure to globalization played in industrialization in Canada between 1871 and 1891. Greater exposure to globalization leads to faster growth of manufacturing and the greater concentration of industry around entrepôts of trade between Canada and the rest of the world.

When did overseas trade start to matter for living standards? Traditional real-wage indices suggest that living standards in Europe stagnated before 1800. In this paper, we argue that welfare may have actually risen substantially, but surreptitiously, because of an influx of new goods. Colonial “luxuries” such as tea, coffee, and sugar became highly coveted. Together with more simple household staples such as potatoes and tomatoes, overseas goods transformed European diets after the discovery of America and the rounding of the Cape of Good Hope. They became household items in many countries by the end of the 18^th century. We apply two standard methods to calculate broad orders of magnitude of the resulting welfare gains. While they cannot be assessed precisely, gains from greater variety may well have been big enough to boost European real incomes by 10% or more (depending on the assumptions used).

Persecution, pogroms, and genocide have plagued humanity for centuries, costing millions of lives and haunting survivors. Economists and economic historians have recently made new contributions to the understanding of these phenomena. We provide a novel conceptual framework which highlights the inter-relationship between the intensity of persecution and migration patterns across dozens of historical episodes. Using this framework as a lens, we survey the growing literature on the causes and consequences of persecution, pogroms, and genocide. Finally, we discuss gaps in the literature and take several tentative steps towards explaining the differences in survival rates of European Jews in the 20^th century.

We argue that heterogeneity in political centralization explains local governance. Specifically, the career incentives and promotion prospects of local officials influence how they spend local resources which in turn impacts local economic growth. We utilize the unique historical case of Edo Japan to explore the effect of institutionalized political relations between central and local governments. We argue that fudai daimyos, or political insiders, who had access to important positions in the central administration expended their local resources to benefit their own careers at a cost to local development. We analyze both macro (domain) and micro (village) level data, and use an instrumental variable approach to causally identify the economic consequences of career incentives and promotion prospects. We find that growth in agricultural output was around 10–16 percentage points lower for fudai domains/villages in the Edo Period, which is a magnitude comparable to the difference in growth rates between China and France in the same period.

I study the rates of, selection into, and sorting of European immigrants’ secondary migration within the United States and their geographic assimilation during the Age of Mass Migration. These phenomena are recognized as important components of the economics of immigration, but data constraints have limited prior study of them in this context. As part of the debate over immigrant distribution, they were also major issues in the broader twentieth-century immigration policy debate, which was influenced by the widely held view that immigrants in the early twentieth century were less geographically mobile and specifically more attached to urban areas than were natives and earlier immigrants. I find that immigrants throughout the Age of Mass Migration were at least as likely as natives to make inter-county moves, were more attached to urban areas, were more likely to move to urban destinations, and shared natives’ increasing attachment to urban areas over time. In spite of their mobility, immigrants experienced relatively little assimilation in their place-of-residence distributions relative to natives with time in the United States, though they did experience somewhat more convergence on natives in terms of urbanization. These results help to better understand immigrant assimilation and the effects of immigration during the Age of Mass Migration and imply that the contemporary views of immigrant immobility were either false, oversimplified, or the product of changes in the US economy.